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(CNBC)   Yale study supported by the National Institute of Health: Official U.S. coronavirus death toll is a lie   (cnbc.com) divider line
    More: Interesting, United States, U.S. deaths, number of excess U.S. deaths, Heart, Circulatory System, sharp increase, U.S. state, excess number of deaths  
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7302 clicks; posted to Main » and Politics » on 02 Jul 2020 at 10:31 AM (5 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2020-07-02 8:23:55 AM  
I think this has been well discussed in a number of threads: statistical excess death count will be the only way to grasp the realistic numbers.

Although there have been blatant bad faith or corrupt reporting (looking at you, FL), even amongst those States trying to attribute probable deaths to COVID never had enough tests available in time for accuracy (thanks, Trumpy! That one's entirely on you).

The percentage of undercount, 28% is crushing, depressing, utterly unacceptable, but not nearly as farked as some were expecting within a reasonable scope.

Listen to the working epidemiologists. Take their advice, you already paid for it. Stay well out there. Protect each other.
 
2020-07-02 9:50:18 AM  
 "Hey, you remember how we thought the world was ending? Well....funny story, have you ever forgotten to clean the lens of your Death Comet Spotting Scope?"

Can we have THAT post one day? Because that'd be great right now...
 
2020-07-02 10:32:15 AM  
No, no, no - there was someone in a thread yesterday assuring us that the the C19 death count is *overstated*.

Dude was probably trolling but I'm just pointing this out because there are *droves* of these people IRL.  They're hearing this from totally *not* subversive propaganda media sources and repeating it to everyone they see as if it is the *only* answer.
 
2020-07-02 10:32:42 AM  
obvious tag wearing a mask and staying at home
 
2020-07-02 10:33:27 AM  

UberDave: No, no, no - there was someone in a thread yesterday assuring us that the the C19 death count is *overstated*.

Dude was probably trolling but I'm just pointing this out because there are *droves* of these people IRL.  They're hearing this from totally *not* subversive propaganda media sources and repeating it to everyone they see as if it is the *only* answer.


Super-spreaders of misinformation.
 
2020-07-02 10:34:27 AM  
Well, this thread is going to be a complete hoot.
 
2020-07-02 10:36:14 AM  
"Weinberger said other factors could contribute to the increase in deaths, such as people avoiding emergency treatment for things like heart attacks.

For example, California reported 4,046 Covid-19 deaths and 6,800 excess deaths, leaving 41% of the excess deaths unattributed to Covid-19..."
 
2020-07-02 10:36:48 AM  
Pfffft. Pointy headed college boys.
What do they know?
 
2020-07-02 10:37:42 AM  

yohohogreengiant: The percentage of undercount, 28% is crushing, depressing, utterly unacceptable, but not nearly as farked as some were expecting within a reasonable scope.


It wouldn't surprise me, whenever we have a chance to really sort through this mess and find out just how bad the country farked up, if they eventually find that worry about political retribution was a major factor in under-reporting.

If we have an administration change next year, one of the things they need to focus on is making sure various record data is more accurate and robust throughout the country.
 
2020-07-02 10:38:48 AM  
Is it Tales to (not) Astonish Thursday already?
 
2020-07-02 10:40:25 AM  
Trump to cut NIH funding in 3...2...
 
2020-07-02 10:42:35 AM  

ElwoodCuse: obvious tag wearing a mask and staying at home


If it is quarantining with the Hero tag... otherwise it's on a ventilator or dead already
 
2020-07-02 10:43:04 AM  
If you add a 28% correction factor to the current Johns Hopkins dashboard death count of 128,064 the new number is: 163,962.

I'm going to be sick with despair.
 
2020-07-02 10:44:05 AM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-07-02 10:44:26 AM  

fark'emfeed'emfish: "Weinberger said other factors could contribute to the increase in deaths, such as people avoiding emergency treatment for things like heart attacks.

For example, California reported 4,046 Covid-19 deaths and 6,800 excess deaths, leaving 41% of the excess deaths unattributed to Covid-19..."


Would this analysis accommodate the number of fatalities avoided due to the lock down? Car fatalities, manslaughter, no fast food so fewer ecoli deaths, other transmittable diseases would necessarily decrease. Work related deaths plummet.

If I see the math correctly, wouldn't there be even more COVID attributed excess deaths, if the overall death rate was statistically lower because everyone wasn't taking the normal stupid risks we usually do?
 
2020-07-02 10:45:05 AM  
28% more people died than last year so the only logical explanation is that are related to COVID.

Is this the ONLY year that we have had any variation in rate of deaths?
 
2020-07-02 10:46:17 AM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-07-02 10:46:51 AM  
I work in healthcare in GA.  There is real, top-down pressure on doctors and nurses to not test and not even mention Coronavirus. The more corporate the system (no need to mention Wellstar's name) the worse it is.
 
2020-07-02 10:46:51 AM  
Fake news!  Plus, Yale are hypocrites because they won't change their name!
 
2020-07-02 10:47:53 AM  
• So there are about 800K deaths, 122K higher than expected.

• What also needs to be taken into account is people avoiding doctors offices and hospitals for serious existing conditions, due to fear of covid. I know of one person who nearly died from doing this. There are probably others who weren't so lucky.
 
2020-07-02 10:48:10 AM  
You think?
 
2020-07-02 10:48:39 AM  
If you average the stories that claim the number of deaths is under-reported with the stories that claim the deaths are over-reported you wind up with a story that says the count is accurate. An accurate count will never be known, there's too much money and political power involved.
 
2020-07-02 10:49:04 AM  

yohohogreengiant: I think this has been well discussed in a number of threads: statistical excess death count will be the only way to grasp the realistic numbers.

Although there have been blatant bad faith or corrupt reporting (looking at you, FL), even amongst those States trying to attribute probable deaths to COVID never had enough tests available in time for accuracy (thanks, Trumpy! That one's entirely on you).

The percentage of undercount, 28% is crushing, depressing, utterly unacceptable, but not nearly as farked as some were expecting within a reasonable scope.

Listen to the working epidemiologists. Take their advice, you already paid for it. Stay well out there. Protect each other.


An undercount of 28% would mean instead of about 130,000 deaths through today, we've had about 170,000 deaths through today. I'm with you: that's not nearly as bad as it could be, but it is far worse than it ever should have been.
 
2020-07-02 10:50:03 AM  

the money is in the banana stand: 28% more people died than last year so the only logical explanation is that are related to COVID.

Is this the ONLY year that we have had any variation in rate of deaths?


Area man leans heavily on his GED in statistical analysis.
 
2020-07-02 10:50:30 AM  
yeah, and how many "corona deaths" have been labeled as such, to boost the numbers, and how many stories have we read in left leaning sites that say funeral types, coroners etc have been told to mark the death
as corona virus when it was totally something else, only because the person "tested positive".
Shoot, if someone was murdered with 14 rounds to the head, and they tested and it came back positive for
the corona virus, the governor of NY would say it was a corona virus death!
 
2020-07-02 10:52:44 AM  

the money is in the banana stand: 28% more people died than last year so the only logical explanation is that are related to COVID.

Is this the ONLY year that we have had any variation in rate of deaths?


Early 2018 was higher than expected, but I believe that's attributable to a more severe influenza strain that year.

Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-07-02 10:52:50 AM  
Not hard to figure out, just compare the number of deaths last year to this year.
 
2020-07-02 10:53:03 AM  

p51d007: yeah, and how many "corona deaths" have been labeled as such, to boost the numbers, and how many stories have we read in left leaning sites that say funeral types, coroners etc have been told to mark the death
as corona virus when it was totally something else, only because the person "tested positive"


How many!!!???
 
2020-07-02 10:53:25 AM  
Not me. I died because I had to wear a mask.
 
2020-07-02 10:53:55 AM  

Guairdean: If you average the stories that claim the number of deaths is under-reported with the stories that claim the deaths are over-reported you wind up with a story that says the count is accurate. An accurate count will never be known, there's too much money and political power involved.


Sort of like how there are people who say the earth is round and others say the earth is flat so it is most likely crescent shaped.
 
2020-07-02 10:54:56 AM  

the money is in the banana stand: 28% more people died than last year so the only logical explanation is that are related to COVID.

Is this the ONLY year that we have had any variation in rate of deaths?


Well, no, there was the Spanish Flu. That had some noticable variance. Could you be more specific?

If I understand this: Graph it didn't vary much beyond + or - 1% from the UN projection since 1950

So. fark. I hope I'm reading it incorrectly.

28% is a big number for this statistic.
 
2020-07-02 10:55:35 AM  

p51d007: yeah, and how many "corona deaths" have been labeled as such, to boost the numbers, and how many stories have we read in left leaning sites that say funeral types, coroners etc have been told to mark the death
as corona virus when it was totally something else,
only because the person "tested positive".
Shoot, if someone was murdered with 14 rounds to the head, and they tested and it came back positive for
the corona virus, the governor of NY would say it was a corona virus death!


I don't know, how many? Tell us. We're dying to know.
 
2020-07-02 10:56:14 AM  
Yale?

That Yale Thing
Youtube 1NyzQwwO4Os
 
2020-07-02 10:56:42 AM  

p51d007: yeah, and how many "corona deaths" have been labeled as such, to boost the numbers, and how many stories have we read in left leaning sites that say funeral types, coroners etc have been told to mark the death
as corona virus when it was totally something else, only because the person "tested positive".
Shoot, if someone was murdered with 14 rounds to the head, and they tested and it came back positive for
the corona virus, the governor of NY would say it was a corona virus death!


Marking someone as having been infected post mortem and marking them as having died from the disease (with 14 rounds to the head) are worlds apart. Good luck finding a reliable source you can cite for a person found shot in the head that was declared dead due to coronavirus.
 
2020-07-02 10:56:58 AM  
Idiot at work thinks they are inflating the numbers because yeah they have C19 but they are dying from something else like heart attack or kidney failure. But they still say it's the Rona because $. I try not to talk too much to him now.
 
2020-07-02 10:57:56 AM  

yohohogreengiant: I think this has been well discussed in a number of threads: statistical excess death count will be the only way to grasp the realistic numbers.

Although there have been blatant bad faith or corrupt reporting (looking at you, FL), even amongst those States trying to attribute probable deaths to COVID never had enough tests available in time for accuracy (thanks, Trumpy! That one's entirely on you).

The percentage of undercount, 28% is crushing, depressing, utterly unacceptable, but not nearly as farked as some were expecting within a reasonable scope.

Listen to the working epidemiologists. Take their advice, you already paid for it. Stay well out there. Protect each other.


Coming soon:  states stop recording deaths of any kind, or federal government declares casualty  reports to be a matter of national security and classified them.
 
2020-07-02 10:58:47 AM  
Whelp, good to have some scientific evidence to support what most of us have been saying here for months.

My best friend lives in Key West, he is 52 and tested positive yesterday. He has been locked down working from home and made the mistake of going out one night last week and thats all it took. Thankfully He has mild symptoms so far and the docs are optimistic that he will not have major respiratory symptoms.

Do not believe the politicians, do not just take your employers word for it, make sure you keep up the mask wearing, keep up the hand washing and keeping stuff clean, do not go to the bar, do not hang out in large groups, stay out of peoples houses, do not become complacent. Stop killing your neighbors.
 
2020-07-02 10:59:05 AM  

the money is in the banana stand: 28% more people died than last year so the only logical explanation is that are related to COVID.

Is this the ONLY year that we have had any variation in rate of deaths?


If only there were a globa information source right in front of you that you could find that out with...
 
2020-07-02 10:59:29 AM  

joker420: Not hard to figure out, just compare the number of deaths last year to this year.


Those diabolical "statisticians" are going farther than that.  They averaged deaths over that span from an entire decade in order to create a more robust data set for comparison.

Is there no end to their games and schemes?

Best part:  The gap between the reported COVID-19 deaths and the estimated all-cause excess deaths varied among states (Table; eFigure 3 in the Supplement). For instance, California had 4046 reported deaths due to COVID-19 and 6800 (95% prediction interval, 6100-7500) excess all-cause deaths, leaving 41% of the excess deaths unattributed to COVID-19 (Table). Texas and Arizona had even wider gaps, with approximately 55% and 53% of the excess deaths unattributed to COVID-19, respectively. In contrast, there was better agreement between the reported COVID-19 deaths and the excess all-cause deaths in Minnesota, with 12% unattributed to COVID-19 (Table).

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama​i​nternalmedicine/fullarticle/2767980

No surprise there.
 
2020-07-02 11:00:01 AM  

UberDave: No, no, no - there was someone in a thread yesterday assuring us that the the C19 death count is *overstated*.

Dude was probably trolling but I'm just pointing this out because there are *droves* of these people IRL.  They're hearing this from totally *not* subversive propaganda media sources and repeating it to everyone they see as if it is the *only* answer.


The cause of death is being recorded as coronavirus even if they fell off a camel or were raptured.
 
2020-07-02 11:00:02 AM  

Guairdean: If you average the stories that claim the number of deaths is under-reported with the stories that claim the deaths are over-reported you wind up with a story that says the count is accurate. An accurate count will never be known, there's too much money and political power involved.


So... Someone's opinion is equal to Yale's data? They average?

When the numbers get that big, you'll have error. What the report from Yale says, the error is currently around 28% underreported excess deaths that are attributed to COVID
 
2020-07-02 11:00:08 AM  

UberDave: No, no, no - there was someone in a thread yesterday assuring us that the the C19 death count is *overstated*.

Dude was probably trolling but I'm just pointing this out because there are *droves* of these people IRL.  They're hearing this from totally *not* subversive propaganda media sources and repeating it to everyone they see as if it is the *only* answer.


Is it really "subversive " if it has the tacit public endorsement of 2/3 of the federal government?
 
2020-07-02 11:00:10 AM  

the money is in the banana stand: 28% more people died than last year so the only logical explanation is that are related to COVID.

Is this the ONLY year that we have had any variation in rate of deaths?


Year-to-year national death rates are surprisingly stable. There is a bit of fluctuation when looking across a 5+ year time horizon. If you look carefully, you can see the spike attributed to the Vietnam War.

Here's the U.S data since 1950. keep in mind the 2020 data is a prediction not adjusted for the COVID.

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries​/​USA/united-states/death-rate
 
2020-07-02 11:00:12 AM  
So basically, the US's numbers are about as accurate as the rest of the world's.  Is this surprising?
 
2020-07-02 11:01:56 AM  

fiddlehead: the money is in the banana stand: 28% more people died than last year so the only logical explanation is that are related to COVID.

Is this the ONLY year that we have had any variation in rate of deaths?

Early 2018 was higher than expected, but I believe that's attributable to a more severe influenza strain that year.

[Fark user image image 850x377]


Ok, the graph over at https://www.macrotrends.net/countr​ies/​USA/united-states/death-rate

Says the same thing from a projected baseline. This sucks.
 
2020-07-02 11:02:14 AM  
Obvious tag in quarantine.
 
2020-07-02 11:04:00 AM  
> Of the 122,300 excess deaths, 95,235 were attributed to Covid-19, they said.

This logic gives about 27,000 unreported COVID deaths.

However it neglects Covid responsibility for non-excess deaths.

If a certain number of pneumonia deaths were expected how many of those had the new cause of covid?

Statistically these people were going to die anyway but individually their death was caused by catching covid.
 
2020-07-02 11:06:25 AM  

the money is in the banana stand: 28% more people died than last year so the only logical explanation is that are related to COVID.

Is this the ONLY year that we have had any variation in rate of deaths?


Variations occur but I would presume not normally in the 28% range. "Whilst death rates may fall or decline from year-to-year as part of a general trend, dramatic changes in such deaths are typically rare."
 
2020-07-02 11:06:37 AM  

yohohogreengiant: fiddlehead: the money is in the banana stand: 28% more people died than last year so the only logical explanation is that are related to COVID.

Is this the ONLY year that we have had any variation in rate of deaths?

Early 2018 was higher than expected, but I believe that's attributable to a more severe influenza strain that year.

[Fark user image image 850x377]

Ok, the graph over at https://www.macrotrends.net/countri​es/USA/united-states/death-rate

Says the same thing from a projected baseline. This sucks.


Sorry, it doesn't say the same thing, it says that between 1950 and excess deaths are + - around 1% annually fun the projections . They aren't counting COVID. 28% excess deaths is... farked.
 
2020-07-02 11:07:07 AM  

AcneVulgaris: the money is in the banana stand: 28% more people died than last year so the only logical explanation is that are related to COVID.

Is this the ONLY year that we have had any variation in rate of deaths?

If only there were a globa information source right in front of you that you could find that out with...


My complaint is TFA should have included the relevant information and exactly how the study was conducted to reach that conclusion. The way the article reads, it surmises the death rate is a constant and that the only criteria used for comparison was a comparison to last year. When you look at financial projections, you do not just look at 1 month or last year earnings, typically a bare minimum of 3 years is utilized.

I happen to believe the numbers are under reported by the way, but question as to how much and how the conclusion was reached.
 
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