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(Some Guy)   130,000. Remember when we were expected to level out at around this many deaths?   (worldometers.info) divider line
    More: Sad, New York City, United States, New York CityDepartment of Health, U.S. Centers, U.S. state, Republic of China, new cases, People's Republic of China  
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2924 clicks; posted to Main » and Politics » on 30 Jun 2020 at 10:12 PM (2 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2020-06-30 7:04:41 PM  
Remember when;

It was a hoax
It will just disappear
Hot weather will make it go away
It will disappear by Easter.
<50K death is a victory
less than a week later,  <75K death will be a victory.
a 100K death will be a big victory.
130K later, Oh well. People were going to die anyway.
 
2020-06-30 7:07:19 PM  

blender61: Remember when;

It was a hoax
It will just disappear
Hot weather will make it go away
It will disappear by Easter.
<50K death is a victory
less than a week later,  <75K death will be a victory.
a 100K death will be a big victory.
130K later, Oh well. People were going to die anyway.


I do remember.  I also remember when they said Trump was getting worried because it would disproportionately affect his supporters.  Do we have any evidence of that yet? Because that would be the one silver lining.
 
2020-06-30 7:10:33 PM  
Closing in on US Army combat deaths in the Civil War.
 
2020-06-30 7:11:00 PM  
Only idiots thought it would be done by now.

/idiots either because they thought it was 'just a cold' or whatever; or idiots because they actually had faith in their fellow Americans and believed they would wear masks and not go to the bar and lick strangers
 
2020-06-30 7:12:53 PM  
Everyone with two brain cells and an internet connection saw it coming.
 
2020-06-30 7:13:06 PM  
130,000 is a popular number.
 
2020-06-30 7:15:42 PM  

naughtyrev: Closing in on US Army combat deaths in the Civil War.


And that took 4 years.
 
TWX [TotalFark]
2020-06-30 7:23:42 PM  
Remember when we were expected to level out at around this many deaths?

No.  I remember when a bunch of intentionally ignorant Know Nothings buried their heads in the sand, ignoring experts, and just lied about it hoping that the actual damage would either be minor enough or would take long enough to manifest in order to retain political power in the pending election.  They said it would go away with just a few cases.  They said it would level-off at various infection totals.  They said it would only kill so many, with varying statements of numbers dead.

These are the same sort of anti-science assholes that don't even understand basic exponential growth.

Fark them.
 
2020-06-30 7:30:55 PM  
I remember January /February and if the US had a competent president instead of Donnie the number of deaths could have been kept under 20k instead of over 300k dead Americans by November. This was not a hard epidemic to deal with, but did require actually doing things on the national level. The US still does not have a national plan on how to deal with the Rona because trump and republicans are farking idiots that hate America.
 
2020-06-30 7:55:34 PM  
This thread was from May 13.
147,000 dead by Aug. 4
 
2020-06-30 7:56:32 PM  

TWX: Remember when we were expected to level out at around this many deaths?

No.  I remember when a bunch of intentionally ignorant Know Nothings buried their heads in the sand, ignoring experts, and just lied about it hoping that the actual damage would either be minor enough or would take long enough to manifest in order to retain political power in the pending election.


It wasn't just know-nothings:  the IHME model (https://covid19.healthdata.org/unite​d-​states-of-america) currently estimates 175K deaths by October 1st, but a month ago they estimated a death toll leveling off at around 130K.

It was only recently that they updated their model so that the cumulative deaths actually continue to rise instead of settling after a few months.

Of course, the IHME model has received quite a bit of criticism from epidemiologists.  The only reason it is even remotely on-target is that they keep completely redrawing it retroactively to match the data thus far.  As a predictive model it's hilariously bad.
 
2020-06-30 8:05:25 PM  

Xcott: It wasn't just know-nothings:  the IHME model (https://covid19.healthdata.org/united​-states-of-america) currently estimates 175K deaths by October 1st, but a month ago they estimated a death toll leveling off at around 130K.


Actually I might be a month off:  on May 4th they estimated 134,000 deaths --- up from their previous estimate of 72,000 a few days earlier, which was up from 60,000, revised down from 161,000 deaths.

But in any case, it wasn't just the derp squad quoting numbers like this.
 
2020-06-30 8:36:50 PM  
If bored or curious,
Harvard Global Health Institute COVID-19 Hospital Capacity Estimates 2020 allows a person to pick a city region and change the infected rate and what that means to hospital beds and availability of care.
https://globalepidemics.org/
 
2020-06-30 9:16:06 PM  

weddingsinger: Only idiots thought it would be done by now.


But Mike Pence said it would be in our rear view mirror by Memorial Day... oh
 
2020-06-30 9:25:14 PM  

Xcott: Of course, the IHME model has received quite a bit of criticism from epidemiologists. The only reason it is even remotely on-target is that they keep completely redrawing it retroactively to match the data thus far. As a predictive model it's hilariously bad.


Well, unless your name is Hari Seldon the best your model can do is to say "if people do X then we predict Y deaths over the next 6 months". Particularly when exponential growth is a factor. If you have 50,000 cases and each person gives the infection to 1.2 others then you get a curve which keeps going up and up. If each person gives the infection to 0.8 others then it decays toward zero. That R number depends on how many people wear masks, follow advice to avoid large gatherings, etc. Do you know what those compliance rates are going to be over the next month? If not, your predictions for the following months are probably going to be hilariously bad.
 
2020-06-30 9:27:39 PM  

fifthofzen: This thread was from May 13.
147,000 dead by Aug. 4


Looks like my estimate on May 15th (when we passed 85,000 dead) was 165,000 by 4th of July.

Looks like I'll be a couple weeks too early on that guess.

/129,000 as of today, add 1000 every day now and that looks to spike to 1500 every day once Florida, Texas, and Arizona cases start showing up as deaths, so 150,000+ by August 1st looks very likely
 
2020-06-30 9:31:26 PM  

OldRod: weddingsinger: Only idiots thought it would be done by now.

But Mike Pence said it would be in our rear view mirror by Memorial Day... oh


Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-06-30 9:39:32 PM  

weddingsinger: /129,000 as of today, add 1000 every day now and that looks to spike to 1500 every day once Florida, Texas, and Arizona cases start showing up as deaths, so 150,000+ by August 1st looks very likely


I've been averaging the death totals weekly to filter out the fluctuation, and get the following numbers

4169.0 --- 366 285 512 663 653 819 871  (this week)
4387.0 --- 369 271 582 729 758 819 859  (last week)
5305.0 --- 432 336 716 800 918 998 1105 (week before)
5988.0 --- 598 384 717 988 1050 1104 1147 (etc)
7198.0 --- 695 651 1033 1234 1239 1563 783
8083.0 --- 63 ...

So for a while our weekly deaths have been sinking about about 1000 each time, but it's started to slow, and you can really see that the most recent week looks very close to the previous one.  This is before any crazy death toll from the spiking numbers in FL, AZ, TX, etc.

Given that have 130,000 as of today, 150,000 by August 1st is a very reasonable guess, possibly a conservative one.
 
2020-06-30 9:50:25 PM  

weddingsinger: Only idiots thought it would be done by now.


Saluting the Heroes of the Coronavirus Pandumbic | The Daily Show
Youtube NAh4uS4f78o

 
2020-06-30 9:56:54 PM  
It will be over by Easter.
Personally I thought it would be 150k by this time, so I'm glad to be wrong
 
2020-06-30 10:05:15 PM  

cretinbob: It will be over by Easter.
Personally I thought it would be 150k by this time, so I'm glad to be wrong


You are not wrong. Some states are simply not reporting deaths because of trumpers.  The official number of Covid-19 cases is  under 3 million actual number well over 10 million today. Exponential growth once it getting going is bad. The worse is yet to come.
 
2020-06-30 10:08:39 PM  

eurotrader: cretinbob: It will be over by Easter.
Personally I thought it would be 150k by this time, so I'm glad to be wrong

You are not wrong. Some states are simply not reporting deaths because of trumpers.  The official number of Covid-19 cases is  under 3 million actual number well over 10 million today. Exponential growth once it getting going is bad. The worse is yet to come.


I looked up the CDC excessive deaths yesterday and of course they stopped updating it weeks ago.
 
2020-06-30 10:14:15 PM  

blender61: Remember when;

It was a hoax
It will just disappear
Hot weather will make it go away
It will disappear by Easter.
<50K death is a victory
less than a week later,  <75K death will be a victory.
a 100K death will be a big victory.
130K later, Oh well. People were going to die anyway.


And now the president's son is mocking the use of masks.  It's like they are actively trying to get as many people killed as they can.
 
2020-06-30 10:16:28 PM  
Flattening? And so you did. Then the Trumpers won. Build big beautiful walls around all the Blue cities, counties and states and leave the Zardox followers to die in the badlands.

No, wait, didn't that movie end with the extinction of humanity when Adam and Eve had only two sons and reproduction stopped forever.
 
2020-06-30 10:17:00 PM  
Zardoz. Sorry. Careless typing that time.
 
2020-06-30 10:18:10 PM  

cretinbob: It will be over by Easter.
Personally I thought it would be 150k by this time, so I'm glad to be wrong


Easter, 2100 AD? The climate change will kill it, I guess!
 
2020-06-30 10:18:19 PM  

doomjesse: blender61: Remember when;

It was a hoax
It will just disappear
Hot weather will make it go away
It will disappear by Easter.
<50K death is a victory
less than a week later,  <75K death will be a victory.
a 100K death will be a big victory.
130K later, Oh well. People were going to die anyway.

And now the president's son is mocking the use of masks.  It's like they are actively trying to get as many people killed as they can.


Of course they are.  Killing off more American citizens weakens the nation.  Weakening the nation puts us at risk of having other enemy nations take advantage of us in ways we can't combat against.

Trump and crew don't give a shiat so long as the money keeps flowing.
 
2020-06-30 10:18:22 PM  

LordOfThePings: OldRod: weddingsinger: Only idiots thought it would be done by now.

But Mike Pence said it would be in our rear view mirror by Memorial Day... oh

[Fark user image 736x934]


Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-06-30 10:19:04 PM  

LordOfThePings: OldRod: weddingsinger: Only idiots thought it would be done by now.

But Mike Pence said it would be in our rear view mirror by Memorial Day... oh

[Fark user image 736x934]


One of my favourite Far Side cartoons of all. It's subtle and blatant at the same time, like a good psychological horror movie.
 
2020-06-30 10:19:42 PM  

naughtyrev: Closing in on US Army combat deaths in the Civil War.


Yep. We whizzed by WWI, on our way to the Civil War.

Trump wanted to be a "wartime president," and I guess "killing a world war's worth of Americans" was a GOP KPI.
 
2020-06-30 10:19:50 PM  

Xcott: weddingsinger: /129,000 as of today, add 1000 every day now and that looks to spike to 1500 every day once Florida, Texas, and Arizona cases start showing up as deaths, so 150,000+ by August 1st looks very likely

I've been averaging the death totals weekly to filter out the fluctuation, and get the following numbers

4169.0 --- 366 285 512 663 653 819 871  (this week)
4387.0 --- 369 271 582 729 758 819 859  (last week)
5305.0 --- 432 336 716 800 918 998 1105 (week before)
5988.0 --- 598 384 717 988 1050 1104 1147 (etc)
7198.0 --- 695 651 1033 1234 1239 1563 783
8083.0 --- 63 ...

So for a while our weekly deaths have been sinking about about 1000 each time, but it's started to slow, and you can really see that the most recent week looks very close to the previous one.  This is before any crazy death toll from the spiking numbers in FL, AZ, TX, etc.

Given that have 130,000 as of today, 150,000 by August 1st is a very reasonable guess, possibly a conservative one.


I imagine it's going to get much worse. 200k would not be out of the question.
 
2020-06-30 10:20:24 PM  

jtown: LordOfThePings: OldRod: weddingsinger: Only idiots thought it would be done by now.

But Mike Pence said it would be in our rear view mirror by Memorial Day... oh

[Fark user image 736x934]

[Fark user image 850x1088]


The Hand of a Master Cartoonist:  confident enough to rework the same joke into something new and delightful.
 
2020-06-30 10:20:43 PM  

brantgoose: Zardoz. Sorry. Careless typing that time.


The gun is good. The pen is evil.

/ Waitaminute...
 
2020-06-30 10:20:44 PM  

cretinbob: It will be over by Easter.
Personally I thought it would be 150k by this time, so I'm glad to be wrong


The Flim Flam Führer didn't say which Easter.
 
2020-06-30 10:22:45 PM  

weddingsinger: fifthofzen: This thread was from May 13.
147,000 dead by Aug. 4

Looks like my estimate on May 15th (when we passed 85,000 dead) was 165,000 by 4th of July.

Looks like I'll be a couple weeks too early on that guess.

/129,000 as of today, add 1000 every day now and that looks to spike to 1500 every day once Florida, Texas, and Arizona cases start showing up as deaths, so 150,000+ by August 1st looks very likely


200,000 dead before November and Trump loses in a landslide.
 
2020-06-30 10:22:47 PM  
NYT says 127,425 as of Tuesday night.

Your body count may vary. Worldometer has no posted methodology, so I'll stick with the Gray Lady's numbers.
 
2020-06-30 10:23:05 PM  

fifthofzen: This thread was from May 13.
147,000 dead by Aug. 4


We're beating expectations
Thanks President Trump, you truly are the best
SUCH WINNING! Go suck on a ventilator Libs!
 
2020-06-30 10:23:06 PM  

AurizenDarkstar: doomjesse: blender61: Remember when;

It was a hoax
It will just disappear
Hot weather will make it go away
It will disappear by Easter.
<50K death is a victory
less than a week later,  <75K death will be a victory.
a 100K death will be a big victory.
130K later, Oh well. People were going to die anyway.

And now the president's son is mocking the use of masks.  It's like they are actively trying to get as many people killed as they can.

Of course they are.  Killing off more American citizens weakens the nation.  Weakening the nation puts us at risk of having other enemy nations take advantage of us in ways we can't combat against.

Trump and crew don't give a shiat so long as the money keeps flowing.


I don't even think they have that level of awareness.
 
2020-06-30 10:24:48 PM  

AurizenDarkstar: Weakening the nation puts us at risk of having other enemy nations take advantage of us in ways we can't combat against.


WOLVERINES!
i.imgur.comView Full Size
 
2020-06-30 10:26:53 PM  
Remember when we had a president who knew better than to suggest people ingest cleaning products or cram lightbulbs up their bumholes?

/oh I 'member
 
2020-06-30 10:27:33 PM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-06-30 10:27:47 PM  
It will be over by Easter....of 2025
 
2020-06-30 10:30:53 PM  

blender61: Remember when;

It was a hoax
It will just disappear
Hot weather will make it go away
It will disappear by Easter.
<50K death is a victory
less than a week later,  <75K death will be a victory.
a 100K death will be a big victory.
130K later, Oh well. People were going to die anyway.


The current nonsense I've heard includes:
The Spanisf Flu killed a lot more people.
The government can't tell me what to do (regarding masks and social distancing).
We just have to let it keep going to build herd immunity.
 
2020-06-30 10:31:26 PM  

eurotrader: I remember January /February and if the US had a competent president instead of Donnie the number of deaths could have been kept under 20k instead of over 300k dead Americans by November. This was not a hard epidemic to deal with, but did require actually doing things on the national level. The US still does not have a national plan on how to deal with the Rona because trump and republicans are farking idiots that hate America.


AZ would be AZ even if Obama was president.  Same with AL. NYC would still have had its issues. Dumbass mouthbreathers wouldn't have suddenly learned to breathe through their nose under a different presidency.

I think where a president may have had a little bit more positive impact is survivability, but lots of people were going to catch this and lots of people were going to die (and still will) the moment this started to spread.

Now, state level response is a bit more up for discussion.
 
2020-06-30 10:34:51 PM  
Remarks made by Trump 2/28/20:

"Thirty-five thousand people on average die each year from the flu. Did anyone know that?" Trump said to the crowd. "Thirty-five thousand, that's a lot of people. It could go to 100,000. It could be 20,000. They say usually a minimum of 27, goes up to 100,000 people a year die - and so far we have lost nobody to coronavirus in the United States."

"Nobody," he added. "And it doesn't mean we won't, and we are totally prepared. It doesn't mean we won't. But think of it, you hear 35 and 40,000 people, and we've lost nobody. You wonder if the press is in hysteria mode."


So, were they in hysteria mode dotard?
 
2020-06-30 10:35:26 PM  
But think of the positive impact this is having on the planet. I bet none of you farkers thought this when Trump pulled us out of the Paris Accord? Dude is still playin' chess while you bogger-eatin' morans are busy playing tic-tac-toe.
 
2020-06-30 10:36:19 PM  

cretinbob: eurotrader: cretinbob: It will be over by Easter.
Personally I thought it would be 150k by this time, so I'm glad to be wrong

You are not wrong. Some states are simply not reporting deaths because of trumpers.  The official number of Covid-19 cases is  under 3 million actual number well over 10 million today. Exponential growth once it getting going is bad. The worse is yet to come.

I looked up the CDC excessive deaths yesterday and of course they stopped updating it weeks ago.


The reporting that had happened in past epidemics just is not occuring now. Lacking a national uniform reporting system along with tests that have a high false negative rate it is all just guessing at best. I have guessed Everytime an action is required by Donnie he will do nothing or do the absolute stupidest thing.
 
2020-06-30 10:38:59 PM  

fifthofzen: This thread was from May 13.
147,000 dead by Aug. 4


That's looking pretty accurate right now.
THere were about 22,000 deaths in June and about 800,000 new cases in June.

It seems like the people who are getting sick are much younger now and so deaths are down (though the amount of people with long-term damage will probably be high). Deaths have been pretty steady for the past 2 weeks, even as the number of positives has gone up.
 
2020-06-30 10:39:39 PM  

Xcott: TWX: Remember when we were expected to level out at around this many deaths?

No.  I remember when a bunch of intentionally ignorant Know Nothings buried their heads in the sand, ignoring experts, and just lied about it hoping that the actual damage would either be minor enough or would take long enough to manifest in order to retain political power in the pending election.

It wasn't just know-nothings:  the IHME model (https://covid19.healthdata.org/united​-states-of-america) currently estimates 175K deaths by October 1st, but a month ago they estimated a death toll leveling off at around 130K.

It was only recently that they updated their model so that the cumulative deaths actually continue to rise instead of settling after a few months.

Of course, the IHME model has received quite a bit of criticism from epidemiologists.  The only reason it is even remotely on-target is that they keep completely redrawing it retroactively to match the data thus far.  As a predictive model it's hilariously bad.


At that point it's not a model, it's a retroactively fitted curve with zero predictive ability. It's not modelling, it's mathematical abuse.
 
2020-06-30 10:41:41 PM  

Bartleby the Scrivener: AurizenDarkstar: Weakening the nation puts us at risk of having other enemy nations take advantage of us in ways we can't combat against.

WOLVERINES!
[i.imgur.com image 474x287]


Were you born so farking stupid, or did you have to work at it?
 
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