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(Politicus USA)   So, let's check in with Tulsa and Oklahoma's Covid-19 test rate after Trump's Coughchella rally and--oh, my   (politicususa.com) divider line
    More: Followup, Donald Trump, President of the United States, Ivana Trump, MSNBC's Chris Hayes, Fred Trump, coronavirus tests, single test, Donald Trump's rally  
•       •       •

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2020-06-29 10:08:17 PM  
I'm sorry, but I have to go with contaminated lab on this
 
2020-06-29 10:11:33 PM  
352 tested with 100% positivity rate. They are farked.
 
2020-06-29 10:13:14 PM  

cretinbob: I'm sorry, but I have to go with contaminated lab on this


Or are they screening the people requesting tests and only testing the symptomatic ones?  But you are probably right.  Even with this relatively small sample 100% is rather unlikely.
 
2020-06-29 10:13:34 PM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-06-29 10:14:47 PM  
Post hoc ergo propter hoc
 
2020-06-29 10:21:22 PM  
Turning Oklahoma blue.  And the residents, too.
 
2020-06-29 10:22:43 PM  

HawgWild: Post hoc ergo propter hoc


Same to you, bucko.
 
2020-06-29 10:24:32 PM  
I'm not seeing any other site with these numbers.
 
2020-06-29 10:30:03 PM  

cbuhler: cretinbob: I'm sorry, but I have to go with contaminated lab on this

Or are they screening the people requesting tests and only testing the symptomatic ones?  But you are probably right.  Even with this relatively small sample 100% is rather unlikely.


Yeah, I did think about testing only symptomatic people, but even that wouldn't likely be 100%.
Possible yes, probable no.
 
2020-06-29 10:35:42 PM  
FTA: "If you can't do the math in your head, that's 100% positive rate," he added.

Well, it's Oklahoma...
 
2020-06-29 10:44:40 PM  
At this rate, my wife and I probably won't get to take our honeymoon trip (we didn't get to go last year) to Canada no thanks in part to the "muh freed0ms" assholes. 2020 can go fark itself with the business end of a hot poker.

/so can dolt45
 
2020-06-29 10:56:20 PM  
Superspreader pictured here:

img.theepochtimes.comView Full Size
 
2020-06-29 11:34:41 PM  
I found Johns Hopkins data confirming one of the days (352). It looks like OK doesn't test much on weekends, so the results could be coming in from ER visits only, which would be more likely to be all positive. It still seems kind of weird.
 
2020-06-29 11:35:36 PM  

mrshowrules: Superspreader pictured here:

[img.theepochtimes.com image 850x566]


Not sure if sarcasm or not, but she was wearing a mask until the cops ripped it off of her.
 
2020-06-29 11:46:34 PM  

GardenWeasel: mrshowrules: Superspreader pictured here:

[img.theepochtimes.com image 850x566]

Not sure if sarcasm or not, but she was wearing a mask until the cops ripped it off of her.


Of course she was being sarcastic.
 
2020-06-29 11:50:39 PM  

swaniefrmreddeer: GardenWeasel: mrshowrules: Superspreader pictured here:

[img.theepochtimes.com image 850x566]

Not sure if sarcasm or not, but she was wearing a mask until the cops ripped it off of her.

Of course she was being sarcastic.


Poe's law, etc etc etc
 
2020-06-30 1:07:04 AM  

cretinbob: I'm sorry, but I have to go with contaminated lab on this


Agreed. Something is wrong here.
 
2020-06-30 1:33:42 AM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-06-30 1:35:22 AM  

GardenWeasel: swaniefrmreddeer: GardenWeasel: mrshowrules: Superspreader pictured here:

[img.theepochtimes.com image 850x566]

Not sure if sarcasm or not, but she was wearing a mask until the cops ripped it off of her.

Of course she was being sarcastic.

Poe's law, etc etc etc


Seeing how some are actually blaming the BLM protesters, may my sarcasm was less obvious than I intended.
 
2020-06-30 2:21:16 AM  
So the lesson here is that they should be testing less right?
 
2020-06-30 2:23:15 AM  
thumbs.gfycat.comView Full Size
 
2020-06-30 2:23:53 AM  
Jesus. That can't be right... for as much as I'd laugh if it were.
 
2020-06-30 2:24:33 AM  
I think most everything has been said.  I'd also have liked some data points for comparison. A good reporter would show the last week of testing working up to the rally.

I'm not defending the stupid farking rally, btw, just the poor conclusions tfa jumped to.
 
2020-06-30 2:25:59 AM  

revrendjim: FTA: "If you can't do the math in your head, that's 100% positive rate," he added.

Well, it's Oklahoma...


Just thinking about breathing uses like 80% of their brain power.
 
2020-06-30 2:27:10 AM  
I double checked how long it takes for COVID to incubate (which, as I understand, needs to happen before you test positive). I originally thought it was 10-14 days, which would put this JUST out of the Tulsa debacle... but apparently it's between 5 and 14. So, yeah, entirely possible that this is all Trump's fault.
 
2020-06-30 2:30:39 AM  
It's not Trump's fault (it's too early for it to be rally-caused), but it's also extremely predictable (many of us said this before the event, that Tulsa was already clearly growing and no matter what happened with the rally, the rate would be way higher a week or two after, it was lose-lose regardless of whether it was really the driver or not)

The 100% thing can't be right; early on some states / facilities were only reporting positive test results rather than all tests, maybe that's what's still happening here? Even if I could believe 90%+, there's just no way that 100% positive is real
 
2020-06-30 2:31:12 AM  
Trump explicitly said LESS testing.
 
2020-06-30 2:31:39 AM  

mrshowrules: Superspreader pictured here:

[img.theepochtimes.com image 850x566]


"The surge in COVID-19 cases in Oklahoma is being driven largely by increases among younger people, according to state Health Department figures that show 54% of the new cases in the past two weeks were people 35 and younger. "

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/h​e​alth/2020/06/19/oklahoma-coronavirus-c​ovid-19-cases-rise-ahead-trump-tulsa-r​ally/3220736001/

🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔
 
2020-06-30 2:32:11 AM  
I've been following testing for my county very closely and there's something really weird about this.

At the worst peak of our April "no test for you unless you literally went to Wuhan and licked market animals" criteria, we were getting at most 25% positive.  In our terrible spike now, statewide has hit 25% on some days, and is running on average 20%.  For the current week it's at 36% with a VERY small sample size (25 reported so far, because it started yesterday).

It would be *incredibly* hard to get 100% positive two days running.

Also, 350 and 178 are incredibly low numbers of tests for even a small town.  Like a county of under 100k that I'm tracking is doing mid-100s daily, and achieving good low positive rates.  For a whole state it's completely wrong.  Even for a city the size of Tulsa it's far too low.

From June 19th to 25th, Oklahoma conducted 36,000 tests.  That's 5,100 tests a day.  Their positive rate was 6.9%.

They're unquestionably experiencing a surge as cases are up and positive rate is up, but a couple hundred tests a day and 100% positive is impossible.  It's likely those are the true reported case number but the number of tests conducted is wrong.
 
2020-06-30 2:35:13 AM  

HawgWild: Post hoc ergo propter hoc


How does that apply? Or are you saying that to the "contaminated lab" theory?
 
2020-06-30 2:35:22 AM  
I wonder how much contract tracing will lead back to his rally in about 5 days.
 
2020-06-30 2:35:43 AM  

cretinbob: I'm sorry, but I have to go with contaminated lab on this


I hope so. Hasn't the average testing rate been 5-10% on average (maybe 20% tops).

I expected really bad results 7-10 days later, but 100% seems impossible.
 
2020-06-30 2:37:12 AM  
Do people still not get this?  Trump wants as many Americans to die as possible. Not just those who don't support him.

Maybe it's because that's what he's being paid or threatened to do.  Maybe it's because his is an omega-level asshole.  But Americans dying and being sickened by this virus is exactly what he wants.

Get. Him. Out. Of. There.
 
2020-06-30 2:37:16 AM  
Nope! Probably correct. Every jackhole that showed up should get it . Looks like they got what they deserved.
 
2020-06-30 2:37:33 AM  

Jurodan: I double checked how long it takes for COVID to incubate (which, as I understand, needs to happen before you test positive). I originally thought it was 10-14 days, which would put this JUST out of the Tulsa debacle... but apparently it's between 5 and 14. So, yeah, entirely possible that this is all Trump's fault.


It can be as short as a day or two. The CDC (last time I looked) says 2-14 days to develop symptoms, and you can be PCR-positive and contagious in the presymptomatic period.
 
2020-06-30 2:40:34 AM  

NotTooLittleRichard: Do people still not get this?  Trump wants as many Americans to die as possible. Not just those who don't support him.

Maybe it's because that's what he's being paid or threatened to do.  Maybe it's because his is an omega-level asshole.  But Americans dying and being sickened by this virus is exactly what he wants.

Get. Him. Out. Of. There.


He wants herd immunity, and he wants to be a hero when it works.
 
2020-06-30 2:43:03 AM  

Bennie Crabtree: NotTooLittleRichard: Do people still not get this?  Trump wants as many Americans to die as possible. Not just those who don't support him.

Maybe it's because that's what he's being paid or threatened to do.  Maybe it's because his is an omega-level asshole.  But Americans dying and being sickened by this virus is exactly what he wants.

Get. Him. Out. Of. There.

He wants herd immunity, and he wants to be a hero when it works.


'Herd immunity' means letting the virus kill everyone that can possibly be killed by it.
 
2020-06-30 2:44:20 AM  

Bennie Crabtree: NotTooLittleRichard: Do people still not get this?  Trump wants as many Americans to die as possible. Not just those who don't support him.

Maybe it's because that's what he's being paid or threatened to do.  Maybe it's because his is an omega-level asshole.  But Americans dying and being sickened by this virus is exactly what he wants.

Get. Him. Out. Of. There.

He wants herd immunity, and he wants to be a hero when it works.


Dude...stop.

Herd immunity will mean 3-5 million dead, at least.  Another 5-10 million permanently disabled, and will take 2+ years to achieve.
 
2020-06-30 2:44:35 AM  

Gdiguy: It's not Trump's fault (it's too early for it to be rally-caused), but it's also extremely predictable (many of us said this before the event, that Tulsa was already clearly growing and no matter what happened with the rally, the rate would be way higher a week or two after, it was lose-lose regardless of whether it was really the driver or not)


To expand, the incubation period is 5 days for 50%, and 11 days for 97.5%, so a rally on the 20th was 9 days ago.  Most will be symptomatic by now but not *quite* all.

If tests are reasonably available there, quite a few of those who have developed symptoms will have been tested by now, probably starting on the 26th/27th.  The tests then take anything from two days to a week to be reported by the health department.  From my tracking, generally anything in the last 6 days is incomplete and you can't use it to draw conclusions.  So we should be able to see the rally moving the needle more at the end of this week, unless the health department wants to release figures they gained from contact tracing etc.

The problem with Oklahoma's covid dashboard is you can't seem to view the epi curve by county, so you can't really drill down to Tulsa and see the overall evolution of the pandemic without having been tracking it daily yourself.
 
2020-06-30 2:45:09 AM  
I believe these tests to be accurate, and to tell the whole story.  I have therefore become hysterical.  Am I in the right thread?
 
2020-06-30 2:45:28 AM  
100% isn't correct.

Maybe something awful is happening there, but as long as these are the statistics...

Then we don't know anything.
 
2020-06-30 2:53:11 AM  
Odds of 100% being positive and accurate are vanishingly small... But is still a non zero chance of being correct.
 
2020-06-30 2:53:57 AM  

Alphax: Bennie Crabtree: NotTooLittleRichard: Do people still not get this?  Trump wants as many Americans to die as possible. Not just those who don't support him.

Maybe it's because that's what he's being paid or threatened to do.  Maybe it's because his is an omega-level asshole.  But Americans dying and being sickened by this virus is exactly what he wants.

Get. Him. Out. Of. There.

He wants herd immunity, and he wants to be a hero when it works.

'Herd immunity' means letting the virus kill everyone that can possibly be killed by it.


I too had to explain this to a right winger today.

Oh and sure sure Oklahoma is looking bad right now, but seriously, Arizona and Florida! What the hell!
 
2020-06-30 2:56:07 AM  

cretinbob: I'm sorry, but I have to go with contaminated lab on this


Agreed. As much as I'd love to blame it on these "Make America Gurgle Again" covidiots I have to admit 100% is way far-fetched. Especially when you consider the 14 day incubation period has not yet elapsed.
 
2020-06-30 2:59:26 AM  

Ishidan: Alphax: Bennie Crabtree: NotTooLittleRichard: Do people still not get this?  Trump wants as many Americans to die as possible. Not just those who don't support him.

Maybe it's because that's what he's being paid or threatened to do.  Maybe it's because his is an omega-level asshole.  But Americans dying and being sickened by this virus is exactly what he wants.

Get. Him. Out. Of. There.

He wants herd immunity, and he wants to be a hero when it works.

'Herd immunity' means letting the virus kill everyone that can possibly be killed by it.

I too had to explain this to a right winger today.

Oh and sure sure Oklahoma is looking bad right now, but seriously, Arizona and Florida! What the hell!


I was told the warm weather would stop the virus.
 
2020-06-30 3:01:37 AM  

Ishidan: Alphax: Bennie Crabtree: NotTooLittleRichard: Do people still not get this?  Trump wants as many Americans to die as possible. Not just those who don't support him.

Maybe it's because that's what he's being paid or threatened to do.  Maybe it's because his is an omega-level asshole.  But Americans dying and being sickened by this virus is exactly what he wants.

Get. Him. Out. Of. There.

He wants herd immunity, and he wants to be a hero when it works.

'Herd immunity' means letting the virus kill everyone that can possibly be killed by it.

I too had to explain this to a right winger today.

Oh and sure sure Oklahoma is looking bad right now, but seriously, Arizona and Florida! What the hell!


https://www.baynews9.com/fl/tampa/cor​o​navirus/2020/06/23/coronavirus-cases-t​rending-younger-in-florida

https://www.baynews9.com/fl/tampa/cor​o​navirus/2020/06/23/coronavirus-cases-t​rending-younger-in-florida

🤔🤔🤔🤔
 
2020-06-30 3:07:41 AM  
"Coughchella rally"

Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-06-30 3:11:25 AM  

Pichu0102: Odds of 100% being positive and accurate are vanishingly small... But is still a non zero chance of being correct.


But 0 chance the rate will worsen.
Look on the bright side
 
2020-06-30 3:15:16 AM  
I get that testing slows down on the weekend, but 179 total tests in a day? As a comparison, the province of Alberta, with about the same population as OK, did over 5,200 Saturday and another 5,200 on Sunday, and they are talking about ramping up. But socialized medicine is horrible.
 
2020-06-30 3:15:17 AM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
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