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(Five Thirty-Eight)   Overview of polls to the left (good news for Democrats in the Senate), obligatory response to ignore all polls to the right   (fivethirtyeight.com) divider line
    More: Spiffy, United States Senate, Joe Biden, Democratic Party, Vice President of the United States, percent support, Republican Party, percent increase, Barack Obama  
•       •       •

1455 clicks; posted to Politics » on 26 Jun 2020 at 10:23 AM (11 days ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



64 Comments     (+0 »)
 
View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest


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2020-06-26 9:22:23 AM  
Is this the thread where politic junkies remind other politic junkies to vote?!?!?

/of course it is
//so tedious
///vote
 
2020-06-26 9:52:35 AM  

SpectroBoy: Is this the thread where politic junkies remind other politic junkies to vote?!?!?

/of course it is
//so tedious
///vote


Wait, I'm supposed to vote?  Why hasn't anyone ever told me that before?
 
2020-06-26 9:54:38 AM  

SpectroBoy: Is this the thread where politic junkies remind other politic junkies to vote?!?!?

/of course it is
//so tedious
///vote


We could turn it into the thread where you decide that you'll make sure that 3 family members or close friends are registered to vote

/you'd be surprised how many aren't
 
2020-06-26 9:57:08 AM  
But Republicans are running ahead in Alabama and Kentucky.

No shiat.
 
2020-06-26 10:01:14 AM  

Gubbo: SpectroBoy: Is this the thread where politic junkies remind other politic junkies to vote?!?!?

/of course it is
//so tedious
///vote

We could turn it into the thread where you decide that you'll make sure that 3 family members or close friends are registered to vote

/you'd be surprised how many aren't


My family voted for Trump last time  so id rather they just stay home this year.
 
2020-06-26 10:04:55 AM  

raerae1980: Gubbo: SpectroBoy: Is this the thread where politic junkies remind other politic junkies to vote?!?!?

/of course it is
//so tedious
///vote

We could turn it into the thread where you decide that you'll make sure that 3 family members or close friends are registered to vote

/you'd be surprised how many aren't

My family voted for Trump last time  so id rather they just stay home this year.


Well no need to worry about them. Their voter registration will never be expunged.
 
2020-06-26 10:20:00 AM  

raerae1980: Gubbo: SpectroBoy: Is this the thread where politic junkies remind other politic junkies to vote?!?!?

/of course it is
//so tedious
///vote

We could turn it into the thread where you decide that you'll make sure that 3 family members or close friends are registered to vote

/you'd be surprised how many aren't

My family voted for Trump last time  so id rather they just stay home this year.


Tell them they changed the date due to Covid.
 
2020-06-26 10:24:42 AM  

SpectroBoy: Is this the thread where politic junkies remind other politic junkies to vote?!?!?

/of course it is
//so tedious
///vote


Gawd, this.
 
2020-06-26 10:25:13 AM  
IGNORE

ALL

POLLS

 
2020-06-26 10:26:11 AM  

bobtheme: SpectroBoy: Is this the thread where politic junkies remind other politic junkies to vote?!?!?

/of course it is
//so tedious
///vote

Wait, I'm supposed to vote?  Why hasn't anyone ever told me that before?


Don't worry, you're covered.  I vote extra.
 
2020-06-26 10:27:59 AM  

SpectroBoy: Is this the thread where politic junkies remind other politic junkies to vote?!?!?

/of course it is
//so tedious
///vote


Yeah, I wish we could actually have discussions around polls/polling. This poll show this demo low on trump which is a big block in this other state. This demo is more undecided then this demo. This demo has higher Likely hood of voting than previous elections.
 
2020-06-26 10:28:12 AM  
The only Poll that matters is released Nov. 4, 2020.
 
2020-06-26 10:28:28 AM  
Polls do not have positive effects for elections.

Information is dangerous.
 
2020-06-26 10:29:11 AM  

SpectroBoy: Is this the thread where politic junkies remind other politic junkies to vote?!?!?

/of course it is
//so tedious
///vote


Or maybe it's one of those polling threads that descends into arguments over arcane statistical procedures.
 
2020-06-26 10:29:55 AM  
Vote early, vote often, cash in those Soros checks and buy ANTIFA brand statue pull-down ropes.
 
2020-06-26 10:31:54 AM  
Well, since the Democrats have the senate locked up, there's no reason to vote!
 
2020-06-26 10:32:26 AM  

A Cave Geek: SpectroBoy: Is this the thread where politic junkies remind other politic junkies to vote?!?!?

/of course it is
//so tedious
///vote

Or maybe it's one of those polling threads that descends into arguments over arcane statistical procedures.


Has anyone attacked Nate Silver yet?
 
2020-06-26 10:32:31 AM  
Don't ignore the polls, just don't trust the polls.
 
2020-06-26 10:32:49 AM  
Mark Kelly's main commercial running right now is a 'I will work with both Democrats and Republicans to get things done' 1990's looking BS.  Meanwhile, he is getting torched for all his ties to Chinese companies.
 
2020-06-26 10:33:53 AM  
Oh hai guys! What's jigglin' in this thread?

Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-06-26 10:34:05 AM  
That's great and all, but we CANNOT yet again make the mistake of assuming "it is in the bag".  No matter how nice polls look, victory requires sustained effort.

I think this played a roll in 2016 (there where many factors).  We believed too strongly in the polls and thus didn't believe there are any real danger.  So perhaps many of us didn't all do what we could have done.  I have no doubt many people didn't even bother to show up and vote under the belief that victory was assured. That's the biggest danger of seeing polls that are too positive.

And the link is from 538... well remember some of you where attacking Nate Silver for DARING to suggest Donald Trump had a viable path to victory.  You didn't want to hear it and therefore he was apostate in your eyes.  You settled on the message that victory was assured.  It turned out the danger was very real, and I at least hope you've learned your lesson.  Don't act like we've already won until everything is truly over, and also don't attack the people trying to push sobering reality upon you.

It is in fact far, far too soon to act like we've already won.  Keep fighting.
 
2020-06-26 10:34:33 AM  
I listen to Chapo Trap House, a "dirtbag left" podcast. (I think they are funny and sharp, sue me.)

They HATE Biden and the mainstream Dems. In their most recent show, they concluded that it's hard to see how he can lose and how the senate won't flip to the Dems.

/BTW, that's one reason I like them. They tend to be a lot more realistic than other leftists who often engage in wishful thinking.
 
2020-06-26 10:35:32 AM  

Gubbo: SpectroBoy: Is this the thread where politic junkies remind other politic junkies to vote?!?!?

/of course it is
//so tedious
///vote

We could turn it into the thread where you decide that you'll make sure that 3 family members or close friends are registered to vote

/you'd be surprised how many aren't


Depends on the family members. If they are Trumpers, offer to drive them to the pools, then dump them out on country road w/o cell phones.
 
2020-06-26 10:36:16 AM  

GardenWeasel: Gubbo: SpectroBoy: Is this the thread where politic junkies remind other politic junkies to vote?!?!?

/of course it is
//so tedious
///vote

We could turn it into the thread where you decide that you'll make sure that 3 family members or close friends are registered to vote

/you'd be surprised how many aren't

Depends on the family members. If they are Trumpers, offer to drive them to the pools, then dump them out on country road w/o cell phones.


*polls, you g*d-d*mn phone
 
2020-06-26 10:37:25 AM  

SpectroBoy: Is this the thread where politic junkies remind other politic junkies to vote?!?!?


And also telling them to avoid information, because somehow knowing the state of the race affects your ability to vote or something.
 
2020-06-26 10:37:41 AM  

GardenWeasel: GardenWeasel: Gubbo: SpectroBoy: Is this the thread where politic junkies remind other politic junkies to vote?!?!?

/of course it is
//so tedious
///vote

We could turn it into the thread where you decide that you'll make sure that 3 family members or close friends are registered to vote

/you'd be surprised how many aren't

Depends on the family members. If they are Trumpers, offer to drive them to the pools, then dump them out on country road w/o cell phones.

*polls, you g*d-d*mn phone


You could save a trip out to the country by drowning them in the pools.
 
2020-06-26 10:40:33 AM  
Ok, jeez, you people sound like a broken record. No one forgot 2016 and no one is getting complacent. It can't hurt to be cautiously optimistic though.
 
2020-06-26 10:40:33 AM  

desertratt: Mark Kelly's main commercial running right now is a 'I will work with both Democrats and Republicans to get things done' 1990's looking BS.  Meanwhile, he is getting torched for all his ties to Chinese companies.


Still not Martha "Arizonans already voted her to not be a Senator but she became a Senator anyway" McSally.
 
2020-06-26 10:41:05 AM  

Mugato: Ok, jeez, you people sound like a broken record. No one forgot 2016 and no one is getting complacent. It can't hurt to be cautiously optimistic though.


YES IT CAN!  HAVE YOU SEEN TRUMP!?
 
2020-06-26 10:50:16 AM  
Got to hand it to Trump:  If there's one thing he's really great at, it's motivating people to vote for Democrats.

Hope this trend continues and the entirety of the GOP gets their asses handed to them this fall.
 
2020-06-26 10:50:24 AM  

wage0048: Don't ignore the polls, just don't trust the polls.


Why, exactly?
 
2020-06-26 10:51:54 AM  

bk3k: That's great and all, but we CANNOT yet again make the mistake of assuming "it is in the bag".  No matter how nice polls look, victory requires sustained effort.

I think this played a roll in 2016 (there where many factors).  We believed too strongly in the polls and thus didn't believe there are any real danger.  So perhaps many of us didn't all do what we could have done.  I have no doubt many people didn't even bother to show up and vote under the belief that victory was assured. That's the biggest danger of seeing polls that are too positive.

And the link is from 538... well remember some of you where attacking Nate Silver for DARING to suggest Donald Trump had a viable path to victory.  You didn't want to hear it and therefore he was apostate in your eyes.  You settled on the message that victory was assured.  It turned out the danger was very real, and I at least hope you've learned your lesson.  Don't act like we've already won until everything is truly over, and also don't attack the people trying to push sobering reality upon you.

It is in fact far, far too soon to act like we've already won.  Keep fighting.


Thanks for posting it. The 4,567th time will definitely make the difference.
 
2020-06-26 10:54:33 AM  

BMFPitt: SpectroBoy: Is this the thread where politic junkies remind other politic junkies to vote?!?!?

And also telling them to avoid information, because somehow knowing the state of the race affects your ability to vote or something.


I don't understand people who need to believe Trump is going to win before being motivated to oppose him
 
2020-06-26 10:55:05 AM  

eiger: I listen to Chapo Trap House, a "dirtbag left" podcast. (I think they are funny and sharp, sue me.)

They HATE Biden and the mainstream Dems. In their most recent show, they concluded that it's hard to see how he can lose and how the senate won't flip to the Dems.

/BTW, that's one reason I like them. They tend to be a lot more realistic than other leftists who often engage in wishful thinking.


I'll just leave this ( https://www.vox.com/identities/2017/1​0​/24/16503462/dsa-women-cumtown-chapo ) here and throw out my hot take that Chapo Trap House had a hand in Bernie losing the nomination.
 
2020-06-26 10:57:13 AM  

SpectroBoy: Is this the thread where politic junkies remind other politic junkies to vote?!?!?

/of course it is
//so tedious
///vote


I mean, I have no idea. Biden isn't really all that inspiring, you know? Plus the polls look good anyway for the Dems. Maybe I'll sit this one out.
 
2020-06-26 10:58:30 AM  

bk3k: That's great and all, but we CANNOT yet again make the mistake of assuming "it is in the bag".  No matter how nice polls look, victory requires sustained effort.

I think this played a roll in 2016 (there where many factors).  We believed too strongly in the polls and thus didn't believe there are any real danger.  So perhaps many of us didn't all do what we could have done.  I have no doubt many people didn't even bother to show up and vote under the belief that victory was assured. That's the biggest danger of seeing polls that are too positive.

And the link is from 538... well remember some of you where attacking Nate Silver for DARING to suggest Donald Trump had a viable path to victory.  You didn't want to hear it and therefore he was apostate in your eyes.  You settled on the message that victory was assured.  It turned out the danger was very real, and I at least hope you've learned your lesson.  Don't act like we've already won until everything is truly over, and also don't attack the people trying to push sobering reality upon you.

It is in fact far, far too soon to act like we've already won.  Keep fighting.


Okay.  Show your proof.  Because no one who has tried to explore it has found any such link yet.  But you have a FEEELING.  And FEEEEELINGS are more important than facts nowadays, so go ahead, spell it out.
 
2020-06-26 11:00:25 AM  

SpectroBoy: Is this the thread where politic junkies remind other politic junkies to vote?!?!?

/of course it is
//so tedious
///vote


Actually, this is the thread where I shake my head in disbelief and feel sorry for all of you who don't live in a state that has done all voting by mail for the past two decades. Makes it much harder for Republicans to suppress the vote. Which is of course why they don't like it.
 
2020-06-26 11:03:05 AM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-06-26 11:03:49 AM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-06-26 11:06:25 AM  
I sincerely hope that this time Trump won't have help from the Comey, the FBI, Russia, Roger Stone, and all the other dirty little tricksters too numerous to list, including Facebook and Twitter.

I think they all took Americans by surprise in 2016. Since Hillary was predicted to win, people just didn't vote.

Hopefully this year people will be a little more aware of what is going on, and realize that 4 more years of this guy Trump, and his cadre of crooks and enablers, America will not stand.

Look at what's happened in less than four years.
 
2020-06-26 11:07:27 AM  

bk3k: That's great and all, but we CANNOT yet again make the mistake of assuming "it is in the bag".  No matter how nice polls look, victory requires sustained effort.

I think this played a roll in 2016 (there where many factors).  We believed too strongly in the polls and thus didn't believe there are any real danger.  So perhaps many of us didn't all do what we could have done.  I have no doubt many people didn't even bother to show up and vote under the belief that victory was assured. That's the biggest danger of seeing polls that are too positive.

And the link is from 538... well remember some of you where attacking Nate Silver for DARING to suggest Donald Trump had a viable path to victory.  You didn't want to hear it and therefore he was apostate in your eyes.  You settled on the message that victory was assured.  It turned out the danger was very real, and I at least hope you've learned your lesson.  Don't act like we've already won until everything is truly over, and also don't attack the people trying to push sobering reality upon you.

It is in fact far, far too soon to act like we've already won.  Keep fighting.


Well, that pretty much covers everything anyone is going to say in here. So, what's everyone watching on TV these days?
 
2020-06-26 11:09:25 AM  

BMFPitt: SpectroBoy: Is this the thread where politic junkies remind other politic junkies to vote?!?!?

And also telling them to avoid information, because somehow knowing the state of the race affects your ability to vote or something.


Information does not always lead to intuitive results.

Reporting a high margin of victory for a candidate does depress turnout among their likely supporters, for numerous reasons, which can lead to things like Trump winning the White House.
 
2020-06-26 11:12:21 AM  

Lexx0001: I sincerely hope that this time Trump won't have help from the Comey, the FBI, Russia, Roger Stone, and all the other dirty little tricksters too numerous to list, including Facebook and Twitter.

I think they all took Americans by surprise in 2016. Since Hillary was predicted to win, people just didn't vote.

Hopefully this year people will be a little more aware of what is going on, and realize that 4 more years of this guy Trump, and his cadre of crooks and enablers, America will not stand.

Look at what's happened in less than four years.


As scary as Trump is, the Turtle and the Senate are downright terrifying. In my mind, and it doesn't even come close, the Turtle is the most evil man in D.C. It would be glorious to win the Senate back.
 
2020-06-26 11:12:22 AM  

emersonbiggins: IGNOREALLPOLLS


I get your point but I wish we could say this in a more positive way. We are optimistic because of the polls and excited about voting, while ignoring the polls might make some feel helpless and less inclined to make the effort to vote.
 
2020-06-26 11:14:16 AM  
The best way to make Mitch McConnell irrelevant isn't to beat him, it's to beat McSally and Gardner and Collins and Tillis. Beating Mitch would be lovely, obviously, but it's extremely unlikely no matter who prevails in the primary; the most important thing is making sure that he never commands a majority again. So I hope that people remember to spread money around to less-sexy races where the odds of a Democrat winning are far better.
 
2020-06-26 11:18:21 AM  

Albino Squid: The best way to make Mitch McConnell irrelevant isn't to beat him, it's to beat McSally and Gardner and Collins and Tillis. Beating Mitch would be lovely, obviously, but it's extremely unlikely no matter who prevails in the primary; the most important thing is making sure that he never commands a majority again. So I hope that people remember to spread money around to less-sexy races where the odds of a Democrat winning are far better.


Much as I would love to see McGrath or Booker kick his ass, watching him sit there helpless would be pretty sweet too.
 
2020-06-26 11:25:57 AM  

Mugato: Ok, jeez, you people sound like a broken record. No one forgot 2016 and no one is getting complacent. It can't hurt to be cautiously optimistic though.


Well, mainstream Democrats clearly forgot 2016 by nominating another centrist. Their only hope is that Trump has become so toxic that Dems will finally decide to vote against someone, and that the Republican vote is depressed.

/and hopefully Biden won't ignore the rust belt states
 
2020-06-26 11:26:37 AM  

Alaskan Yoda: Lexx0001: I sincerely hope that this time Trump won't have help from the Comey, the FBI, Russia, Roger Stone, and all the other dirty little tricksters too numerous to list, including Facebook and Twitter.

I think they all took Americans by surprise in 2016. Since Hillary was predicted to win, people just didn't vote.

Hopefully this year people will be a little more aware of what is going on, and realize that 4 more years of this guy Trump, and his cadre of crooks and enablers, America will not stand.

Look at what's happened in less than four years.

As scary as Trump is, the Turtle and the Senate are downright terrifying. In my mind, and it doesn't even come close, the Turtle is the most evil man in D.C. It would be glorious to win the Senate back.


And then change the senate rules so that for the next six years (limit it to McConnel's minority term) the minority leader is banned from speaking on the floor, or offering objections of any kind. (Sit the fark down and shut the fark up rule)
 
2020-06-26 11:29:05 AM  

Tyrone Slothrop: Mugato: Ok, jeez, you people sound like a broken record. No one forgot 2016 and no one is getting complacent. It can't hurt to be cautiously optimistic though.

Well, mainstream Democrats clearly forgot 2016 by nominating another centrist. Their only hope is that Trump has become so toxic that Dems will finally decide to vote against someone, and that the Republican vote is depressed.

/and hopefully Biden won't ignore the rust belt states


Biden has already avoided several of the traps that led to Clinton losing in 2016.  Whether it will give him a win is still up in the air because America's election system is about as legitimately backwards as it gets while still qualifying as a democracy, but he's demonstrated stronger political instincts than she did at this point in the election.
 
2020-06-26 11:42:02 AM  
Murkanen:
Biden has already avoided several of the traps that led to Clinton losing in 2016.  Whether it will give him a win is still up in the air because America's election system is about as legitimately backwards as it gets while still qualifying as a democracy, but he's demonstrated stronger political instincts than she did at this point in the election.

And Clinton lost by a razor-thin margin after a bizarre final week, where the country didn't have 4 years of watching Donald Trump set fire to everything in sight in the rearview mirror. Pretty sure if nothing changed in 2016 save for every voter having a vivid precognition of exactly what would happen under Trump, he loses that election.

Biden was handed a pretty substantial head-start here; he just needs to not fall behind over the course of the race, and to date he hasn't.
 
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