Skip to content
 
If you can read this, either the style sheet didn't load or you have an older browser that doesn't support style sheets. Try clearing your browser cache and refreshing the page.

(Five Thirty-Eight)   New Polling Shows Trump's Electoral College Advantage Is Slipping   (fivethirtyeight.com) divider line
    More: Cool, Vice President of the United States, Joe Biden, former Vice President Joe Biden, United States Senate, Delaware, new batch of polls, Democratic Party, Siena College  
•       •       •

2158 clicks; posted to Politics » on 25 Jun 2020 at 4:08 PM (6 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



79 Comments     (+0 »)
 
View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest


Oldest | « | 1 | 2 | » | Newest | Show all

 
2020-06-25 2:13:39 PM  
Thanks, HillaryWins.com
 
2020-06-25 3:18:01 PM  
Ignore the polls.

Get.

The.

Fark.

Out.

And.

VOTE!

This election needs to be more than a landslide or a referendum.  It needs to be the beginning of the complete and total erasure of GOP control over government.  The entire party needs to be thrown onto the ash pile of history as quickly as each election cycle permits, nationwide.
 
2020-06-25 3:23:02 PM  
Trump never had an electoral college advantage. Being very conservative with which states are in play, Democrats have approximately 30 more "safe" electoral votes than Republicans.

Fark user imageView Full Size


If Trump loses PA, MI, and WI, which he won by a total of < 100,000 votes in 2016 then Democrats will have 265 Electoral votes with all of the traditional swing states left.
 
2020-06-25 3:23:18 PM  

I am Tom Joad's Complete Lack of Surprise: Thanks, HillaryWins.com


FiveThirtyEight was extremely accurate in projecting the final vote percentages across all of the states. They were off by a couple of points and within the margin of error in a few states, and because it was a close election, that resulted in the hellscape outcome that we're all familiar with. They were still incredibly accurate with their polling aggregation.

This has all been explained ad nauseum of course, but there's always been a subset of Democrats who don't believe that good news of any kind is ever possible, so clearly Biden being ahead by ten points in the national polling is bad news for Biden.
 
2020-06-25 3:42:36 PM  

Cagey B: I am Tom Joad's Complete Lack of Surprise: Thanks, HillaryWins.com

FiveThirtyEight was extremely accurate in projecting the final vote percentages across all of the states. They were off by a couple of points and within the margin of error in a few states, and because it was a close election, that resulted in the hellscape outcome that we're all familiar with. They were still incredibly accurate with their polling aggregation.

This has all been explained ad nauseum of course, but there's always been a subset of Democrats who don't believe that good news of any kind is ever possible, so clearly Biden being ahead by ten points in the national polling is bad news for Biden.


Yeah, when the final dust settled, Trump's victory in the swing states that won the EC for him totaled around 78k votes, which was well within the standard margin of error for each poll position.
 
2020-06-25 4:02:36 PM  

I am Tom Joad's Complete Lack of Surprise: Thanks, HillaryWins.com


538 had Trump at 29% odd of winning, a/o Election Day 2016, since he actually paid attention to the rules. You know - First To 270 EVs Wins. The rules.

"HillaryWins.com" was the worthless MSM that had HRC in the high-90% range of winning, as they focused on national polling numbers. Winning the national vote is not the rules.

Silver might be a douche but his predictive modeling for elections is top notch.

/note that shouldn't ever have to be included but always has to be included: no, i don't like those rules
 
2020-06-25 4:03:38 PM  

gameshowhost: 538 had Trump at 29% odd of winning, a/o Election Day 2016, since he actually paid attention to the rules


*they

/yikes
 
2020-06-25 4:07:01 PM  

Cagey B: I am Tom Joad's Complete Lack of Surprise: Thanks, HillaryWins.com

FiveThirtyEight was extremely accurate in projecting the final vote percentages across all of the states. They were off by a couple of points and within the margin of error in a few states, and because it was a close election, that resulted in the hellscape outcome that we're all familiar with. They were still incredibly accurate with their polling aggregation.

This has all been explained ad nauseum of course, but there's always been a subset of Democrats who don't believe that good news of any kind is ever possible, so clearly, Biden being ahead by ten points in the national polling is bad news for Biden.


It's not bad news for Biden, but that doesn't mean Democrats should be complacent, either. How many times have we seen them snatch defeat from the jaws of victory?

VOTE
VOTE
VOTE
VOTE
VOTE
VOTE

The polls are nice, but they should be treated with suspicion until after Joe Biden has 270 electoral votes. Then we can look back at these moments and do a happy dance.
 
2020-06-25 4:10:13 PM  
Any electoral voter who casts a ballot for Trump should lose their vote when Trump goes to prison.
 
2020-06-25 4:10:31 PM  
The only poll that counts is on Election Day. Go vote.
 
2020-06-25 4:11:02 PM  
memegenerator.netView Full Size
 
2020-06-25 4:11:05 PM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-06-25 4:11:24 PM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-06-25 4:12:08 PM  

sdd2000: [Fark user image image 632x871]


Socially distant high five, instead of shaking fist!
 
2020-06-25 4:12:10 PM  

Driedsponge: Cagey B: I am Tom Joad's Complete Lack of Surprise: Thanks, HillaryWins.com

FiveThirtyEight was extremely accurate in projecting the final vote percentages across all of the states. They were off by a couple of points and within the margin of error in a few states, and because it was a close election, that resulted in the hellscape outcome that we're all familiar with. They were still incredibly accurate with their polling aggregation.

This has all been explained ad nauseum of course, but there's always been a subset of Democrats who don't believe that good news of any kind is ever possible, so clearly Biden being ahead by ten points in the national polling is bad news for Biden.

Yeah, when the final dust settled, Trump's victory in the swing states that won the EC for him totaled around 78k votes, which was well within the standard margin of error for each poll position.


It was within the standard margin of electoral fraud the GOP could pull off.
 
2020-06-25 4:13:25 PM  
"VOTE!" You all scream, ignoring that Trump FREAKING LOST the popular vote and won the electoral college.

/put the electoral college on the list of things to destroy
 
2020-06-25 4:14:56 PM  

inglixthemad: The only poll that counts is on Election Day. Go vote.


and take some friends (or even strangers) to the polls as well!
 
2020-06-25 4:15:00 PM  

inglixthemad: The only poll that counts is on Election Day. Go vote.


Is today Election Day?
 
2020-06-25 4:15:28 PM  

Coco LaFemme: Cagey B: I am Tom Joad's Complete Lack of Surprise: Thanks, HillaryWins.com

FiveThirtyEight was extremely accurate in projecting the final vote percentages across all of the states. They were off by a couple of points and within the margin of error in a few states, and because it was a close election, that resulted in the hellscape outcome that we're all familiar with. They were still incredibly accurate with their polling aggregation.

This has all been explained ad nauseum of course, but there's always been a subset of Democrats who don't believe that good news of any kind is ever possible, so clearly, Biden being ahead by ten points in the national polling is bad news for Biden.

It's not bad news for Biden, but that doesn't mean Democrats should be complacent, either. How many times have we seen them snatch defeat from the jaws of victory?

VOTE
VOTE
VOTE
VOTE
VOTE
VOTE

The polls are nice, but they should be treated with suspicion until after Joe Biden has 270 electoral votes. Then we can look back at these moments and do a happy dance.


Nobody in the history of the universe has ever looked at a polling article on a political website in June and said "gee, I sure hope my candidate wins but I think I'll stay home and not vote now."
 
2020-06-25 4:16:30 PM  

inglixthemad: The only poll that counts is on Election Day. Go vote.


Exit polls probably count less than, you know, the actual votes.
 
2020-06-25 4:17:43 PM  
No, you can't invent new terms like "Frost Belt", Nate.
 
2020-06-25 4:17:48 PM  

Ringshadow: "VOTE!" You all scream, ignoring that Trump FREAKING LOST the popular vote and won the electoral college.

/put the electoral college on the list of things to destroy


Good idea, but it won't happen before November 2020.
 
2020-06-25 4:17:52 PM  

Cagey B: This has all been explained ad nauseum of course, but there's always been a subset of Democrats who don't believe that good news of any kind is ever possible, so clearly Biden being ahead by ten points in the national polling is bad news for Biden.


Dude, Donald Trump is president.  DONALD FARKIN TRUMP!  A national joke for the last 40 years.  

Don't blame folks because this mirror universe we're living in has broken their brains.
 
2020-06-25 4:18:28 PM  
Trump will forgo listening to the Electoral College, now looking for new school of thought...Trump University?
 
2020-06-25 4:18:34 PM  
It's true that Biden's lead looks insurmountable. However, when you think about the fact that probably at least another 100,000 people will have died from the 'rona, the economy will still be underwater, and unemployment will still be really high on election day, there's a good chance Trump might pull through.
 
2020-06-25 4:18:48 PM  
Become a poll worker. The retirees that usually work the polls are going to steer clear. Lines will be long. Find out what it takes to become a poll worker in your county. Google it today. Get your friends to join you.
 
2020-06-25 4:18:49 PM  

qorkfiend: inglixthemad: The only poll that counts is on Election Day. Go vote.

Is today Election Day?


It's election week in some parts of the world.
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-06-25 4:19:32 PM  
Everyone has their own theory as to why the Electoral College exists, what purpose it served, etc. It was supposed to stop a demagogue from getting elected. It was supposed to balance urban and rural interests. It was supposed to help in an era where communication was more difficult. It was there in case the President died before he entered office.

There are a million theories.

But it's pretty obvious if you read the notes from the Constitutional Convention. They wanted a popular vote for the President. The problem is that it wouldn't give enough power to slave states (sigh). It was the same compromise that apportioned Representatives in Congress according to free population plus 3/5ths of "all other Persons."

In other words, if there were a popular vote for President, the slave states would only get the number of votes equal to the free population. If they went with an electoral college with the number of electors equal to the number of Representatives and Senators in Congress, then suddenly the slave states' power in Congressional elections was carried over for Presidential elections to.

In other words, it is yet another bending over backwards to placate the slaveholding vote. How different history would've been if we'd just told those backward idiots to go fark themselves.
 
2020-06-25 4:21:05 PM  

markie_farkie: Ignore the polls.

Get.

The.

Fark.

Out.

And.

VOTE!

This election needs to be more than a landslide or a referendum.  It needs to be the beginning of the complete and total erasure of GOP control over government.  The entire party needs to be thrown onto the ash pile of history as quickly as each election cycle permits, nationwide.


Reposting due to extreme agreement.
 
2020-06-25 4:21:17 PM  
guys i think we should still vote idk
 
2020-06-25 4:22:38 PM  

Lord Dimwit: In other words, it is yet another bending over backwards to placate the slaveholding vote. How different history would've been if we'd just told those backward idiots to go fark themselves.


Yep.

Also - a mechanism built to protect the minority from a tyranny of the majority shouldn't be used to empower a tyranny of the minority instead.
 
2020-06-25 4:22:42 PM  

hissatsu: It's true that Biden's lead looks insurmountable. However, when you think about the fact that probably at least another 100,000 people will have died from the 'rona, the economy will still be underwater, and unemployment will still be really high on election day, there's a good chance Trump might pull through.


How does any of that help Trump? Voter suppression/election interference are valid concerns but I can't see how our current hellscape worsening could benefit Trump's campaign.
 
2020-06-25 4:23:50 PM  

Lord Dimwit: Everyone has their own theory as to why the Electoral College exists, what purpose it served, etc. It was supposed to stop a demagogue from getting elected. It was supposed to balance urban and rural interests. It was supposed to help in an era where communication was more difficult. It was there in case the President died before he entered office.

There are a million theories.

But it's pretty obvious if you read the notes from the Constitutional Convention. They wanted a popular vote for the President. The problem is that it wouldn't give enough power to slave states (sigh). It was the same compromise that apportioned Representatives in Congress according to free population plus 3/5ths of "all other Persons."

In other words, if there were a popular vote for President, the slave states would only get the number of votes equal to the free population. If they went with an electoral college with the number of electors equal to the number of Representatives and Senators in Congress, then suddenly the slave states' power in Congressional elections was carried over for Presidential elections to.

In other words, it is yet another bending over backwards to placate the slaveholding vote. How different history would've been if we'd just told those backward idiots to go fark themselves.


We would have fought a number of wars with them over westward expansion and likely ended up on different sides of the world wars.
 
2020-06-25 4:25:24 PM  
One thing I can say about having a Biden victory is that Biden, being a white male, can do things that neither a Black person (like Obama) or a female (like many of Biden's opposition in this year's campaign) can do, which is to go medieval on the GOP. Biden can still give his nice charming smile and smote some GOP ass. If Obama tried back 10 years ago, he would have taken a bullet to the head, and it's not clear that said bullet would only come from some redneck. If Warren or Klobuchar or Harris were to try anything of the sort, they'd be called shrill, harpy, on the rag, whatever and won't be able to get consensus even from their coalition.

But a white male Biden can smile at the camera and in the back do something significant and no one would be the wiser. The question is not whether he could: he most definitely can. The question is whether he will.
 
2020-06-25 4:25:34 PM  
With all the people in Ohio, I can easily skip election day and depend on everyone else to vote for Biden. I wonder if anything good on Netflix is coming out then?
 
2020-06-25 4:29:15 PM  

Ipsedixitism: hissatsu: It's true that Biden's lead looks insurmountable. However, when you think about the fact that probably at least another 100,000 people will have died from the 'rona, the economy will still be underwater, and unemployment will still be really high on election day, there's a good chance Trump might pull through.

How does any of that help Trump? Voter suppression/election interference are valid concerns but I can't see how our current hellscape worsening could benefit Trump's campaign.


Has it seemed to you that reality has been behaving rationally for the past few years?
 
2020-06-25 4:29:27 PM  
Ultimately, it doesn't matter what the polls show right now. At this point, Michael Dukakis was well ahead in the polls. He doesn't get called Former President Dukakis too often.

There are 1,001 things that can...and will....happen between now and November. It's not like anything this year has been predictable. Just be sure you've registered to vote, and then do so.
 
2020-06-25 4:30:29 PM  

gameshowhost: I am Tom Joad's Complete Lack of Surprise: Thanks, HillaryWins.com

538 had Trump at 29% odd of winning, a/o Election Day 2016, since he actually paid attention to the rules. You know - First To 270 EVs Wins. The rules.

"HillaryWins.com" was the worthless MSM that had HRC in the high-90% range of winning, as they focused on national polling numbers. Winning the national vote is not the rules.

Silver might be a douche but his predictive modeling for elections is top notch.

/note that shouldn't ever have to be included but always has to be included: no, i don't like those rules


This. 538 was the reason I got out and canvassed for the DNC in 2016. I knew it was too close to just sit on my ass.
 
2020-06-25 4:31:43 PM  

inglixthemad: The only poll that counts is on Election Day. Go vote.


This has become a cliche. Almost as empty as 'thoughts and prayers' Everyone says it, then stops thinking, as if that's all they need to do.

Instead, should be sharing plans to, say, find 10 people who aren't enrolled and get them on. Or, in October, have a group set up to get mail vote applications.

Whatever - action instead of words
 
2020-06-25 4:32:34 PM  
People trust these polls and think they live in a nation with a smart, rational population. We live in a nation of mouth breathing barbarians. Our fellow citizens worship cruelty as the highest virtue. Expecting them to do anything but support Trump is wishful thinking at best.
 
2020-06-25 4:35:22 PM  

JimmyTheHutt: People trust these polls and think they live in a nation with a smart, rational population. We live in a nation of mouth breathing barbarians. Our fellow citizens worship cruelty as the highest virtue. Expecting them to do anything but support Trump is wishful thinking at best.


Do you think this data is somehow collected out of thin air?
 
2020-06-25 4:37:09 PM  

Shaggy_C: inglixthemad: The only poll that counts is on Election Day. Go vote.

Exit polls probably count less than, you know, the actual votes.


I love it when your too cute by half schtick fails spectacularly. You know goddamn well the guy was taking about showing up at polling places and voting. But your contrarian ass had to comment anyway.
 
2020-06-25 4:38:36 PM  
From RealClearPolitics:

Fark user imageView Full Size



Fark user imageView Full Size


STILL, GO OUT AND VOTE. THAT'S THE ONLY WAY WE MAKE THIS REALITY.
 
2020-06-25 4:39:54 PM  
I keep reading analyses in NYT and WashPo talking about how Trump losing on most issues except the economy, and how that might be his secret weapon in Nov.

But the polls all seem to concentrate on current major issues - virus, unemployment/re-opening, and civil rights.

Yet along with all his other own goals, Trump is still trying to destroy the Affordable Care Act. This was THE issue in 2018; the Dems will hammer Trump and GOP on that in between the rest of the attack ads
 
2020-06-25 4:41:56 PM  

nmrsnr: Trump never had an electoral college advantage. Being very conservative with which states are in play, Democrats have approximately 30 more "safe" electoral votes than Republicans.

[Fark user image 850x542]

If Trump loses PA, MI, and WI, which he won by a total of < 100,000 votes in 2016 then Democrats will have 265 Electoral votes with all of the traditional swing states left.


Also if trump loses florida he loses. full stop.

Here's the current state-by-state polling map

electoral-vote.comView Full Size
 
2020-06-25 4:42:14 PM  

qorkfiend: JimmyTheHutt: People trust these polls and think they live in a nation with a smart, rational population. We live in a nation of mouth breathing barbarians. Our fellow citizens worship cruelty as the highest virtue. Expecting them to do anything but support Trump is wishful thinking at best.

Do you think this data is somehow collected out of thin air?


I think most of the participants are lying.
 
2020-06-25 4:42:39 PM  

Cagey B: This has all been explained ad nauseum of course, but there's always been a subset of Democrats who don't believe that good news of any kind is ever possible, so clearly Biden being ahead by ten points in the national polling is bad news for Biden.


Nobody has ever been able to provide a citation to prove that this is true. someone last night provided counter citations.
 
2020-06-25 4:44:55 PM  

Lord Dimwit: Everyone has their own theory as to why the Electoral College exists, what purpose it served, etc. It was supposed to stop a demagogue from getting elected. It was supposed to balance urban and rural interests. It was supposed to help in an era where communication was more difficult. It was there in case the President died before he entered office.

There are a million theories.

But it's pretty obvious if you read the notes from the Constitutional Convention. They wanted a popular vote for the President. The problem is that it wouldn't give enough power to slave states (sigh). It was the same compromise that apportioned Representatives in Congress according to free population plus 3/5ths of "all other Persons."

In other words, if there were a popular vote for President, the slave states would only get the number of votes equal to the free population. If they went with an electoral college with the number of electors equal to the number of Representatives and Senators in Congress, then suddenly the slave states' power in Congressional elections was carried over for Presidential elections to.

In other words, it is yet another bending over backwards to placate the slaveholding vote. How different history would've been if we'd just told those backward idiots to go fark themselves.


gives us a solid argument to push a constitutional amendment to eliminate the EC
 
2020-06-25 4:46:01 PM  

dericwater: One thing I can say about having a Biden victory is that Biden, being a white male, can do things that neither a Black person (like Obama) or a female (like many of Biden's opposition in this year's campaign) can do, which is to go medieval on the GOP. Biden can still give his nice charming smile and smote some GOP ass. If Obama tried back 10 years ago, he would have taken a bullet to the head, and it's not clear that said bullet would only come from some redneck. If Warren or Klobuchar or Harris were to try anything of the sort, they'd be called shrill, harpy, on the rag, whatever and won't be able to get consensus even from their coalition.

But a white male Biden can smile at the camera and in the back do something significant and no one would be the wiser. The question is not whether he could: he most definitely can. The question is whether he will.


^^ 

just watch Biden vs Ryan debate.  it was essentially a dunkfest.
 
2020-06-25 4:47:31 PM  

mjjt: I keep reading analyses in NYT and WashPo talking about how Trump losing on most issues except the economy, and how that might be his secret weapon in Nov.

But the polls all seem to concentrate on current major issues - virus, unemployment/re-opening, and civil rights.

Yet along with all his other own goals, Trump is still trying to destroy the Affordable Care Act. This was THE issue in 2018; the Dems will hammer Trump and GOP on that in between the rest of the attack ads


he's barely treading water on the economy (50% approval) and i have no IDEA how he's still that high. 

things are going to get worse before the election, and that is bad for an incumbent
 
Displayed 50 of 79 comments


Oldest | « | 1 | 2 | » | Newest | Show all


View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest

This thread is closed to new comments.

Continue Farking




On Twitter



  1. Links are submitted by members of the Fark community.

  2. When community members submit a link, they also write a custom headline for the story.

  3. Other Farkers comment on the links. This is the number of comments. Click here to read them.

  4. Click here to submit a link.