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(CNBC)   In case you were wondering, the US pandemic recession began in February   (cnbc.com) divider line
    More: Obvious, Unemployment, consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, National Bureau of Economic Research, fourth quarter, worst U.S. downturn, official arbiter of recessions, Business cycle, Goldman Sachs  
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425 clicks; posted to Business » on 08 Jun 2020 at 2:06 PM (14 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



28 Comments     (+0 »)
 
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TWX [TotalFark]
2020-06-08 1:40:49 PM  
So, before COVID-19 concerns had hit the public?

Just curious given how we know that the recession is going to blamed on Chinese efforts with the virus.
 
2020-06-08 1:44:17 PM  
Subby, wouldn't it be a recession that was already started tin Feb., that the Corona Virus made much worse?  The worst damage to the economy truly started in March, April & May.
 
2020-06-08 1:46:34 PM  
So the idiotic steps Dotard took when gifted a growing economy, finally started to take their toll.

You can't give away a trillion dollars in taxes for the rich, start charging American citizens tariffs in a stupid trade war with China and then bail out the farmers you farked over with billions of dollars and not expect some economic repercussions.

The economy was already starting to fail under Dotard's moronic "leadership" when COVID-19 made it worse.

And then Dotard's absolutely brainless inaction and delaying on COVID-19 response really kicked America's butt.

He has farked this up in just about every way he could.
 
2020-06-08 1:57:56 PM  

Jack Sabbath: So the idiotic steps Dotard took when gifted a growing economy, finally started to take their toll.

You can't give away a trillion dollars in taxes for the rich, start charging American citizens tariffs in a stupid trade war with China and then bail out the farmers you farked over with billions of dollars and not expect some economic repercussions.

The economy was already starting to fail under Dotard's moronic "leadership" when COVID-19 made it worse.

And then Dotard's absolutely brainless inaction and delaying on COVID-19 response really kicked America's butt.

He has farked this up in just about every way he could.


Thank you subby, you nailed it.
 
2020-06-08 2:10:16 PM  
So, he'll blame it on the impeachment proceedings again?
 
2020-06-08 2:11:04 PM  
We knew it was looming or the Fed would not have reversed course dramatically on rates in 4Q 2019.

The specific onset date is just a point on a sliding-downwards curve that then spiked down with the quarantine.

Even if you took quarantine out, you'd still have a downward trend in GDP.  That's why the current market action seems so irrational except for the Fed "Brrrrrrr" cash machine.
 
2020-06-08 2:11:31 PM  
See, that's what they mean by efficient markets.

Even back in February, it was already pricing in Covid.  Just like it's now saying "Yo Covid, I'm so done with you, biatch.  Take that!" and is now pricing in a full recovery. Amazing.
 
2020-06-08 2:22:57 PM  
Beware the future gaslightning:

In case you were wondering, the US pandemic Biden recession began in February.
 
2020-06-08 2:26:47 PM  

growinthings: Jack Sabbath: So the idiotic steps Dotard took when gifted a growing economy, finally started to take their toll.

You can't give away a trillion dollars in taxes for the rich, start charging American citizens tariffs in a stupid trade war with China and then bail out the farmers you farked over with billions of dollars and not expect some economic repercussions.

The economy was already starting to fail under Dotard's moronic "leadership" when COVID-19 made it worse.

And then Dotard's absolutely brainless inaction and delaying on COVID-19 response really kicked America's butt.

He has farked this up in just about every way he could.

Thank you subby, you nailed it.


Nope.  Not me.
 
2020-06-08 2:27:29 PM  
I still think the recession began over a year ago. Businesses were pulling in their capital drawbridges early.
 
2020-06-08 2:32:36 PM  

edmo: I still think the recession began over a year ago. Businesses were pulling in their capital drawbridges early.


When the Feds began pumping money into the overnight markets.
 
2020-06-08 2:36:51 PM  

TWX: So, before COVID-19 concerns had hit the public?

Just curious given how we know that the recession is going to blamed on Chinese efforts with the virus.


I don't know about your public, but I certainly knew about it by February. Boobies on this site was January 6th.  Eighteen headlines here before February rolled around.
 
2020-06-08 2:41:56 PM  

TheSubjunctive: I certainly knew about it by February. Boobies on this site was January 6th.


I was thinking that February made sense as a good chunk of China was shut down and was affecting US manufacturing supply chains. Add in Europe starting to shut down in February and it just makes sense our economy was slowing down due to events overseas before we shut down.

tl;tr - Trump will blame China
 
TWX [TotalFark]
2020-06-08 2:48:03 PM  

TheSubjunctive: TWX: So, before COVID-19 concerns had hit the public?

Just curious given how we know that the recession is going to blamed on Chinese efforts with the virus.

I don't know about your public, but I certainly knew about it by February. Boobies on this site was January 6th.  Eighteen headlines here before February rolled around.


I knew of it from December. Closures didn't start in earnest until mid-March
 
2020-06-08 2:51:29 PM  
I think that traders have associated the downturn so much with the coronavirus that the rebound we're seeing now comes from their false logic that COVID19 was the only problem with the economy.  Now that the pandemic has lost the spotlight and states have reopened, we're seeing Wall St. rally even though the economic fundamentals are much worse now than they were before COVID19 hit.
 
2020-06-08 3:03:49 PM  
I'm still bummed that I didn't dump my stocks in early February.  We had problems in China at the beginning of CNY when suddenly all our factories were shut down and we couldn't move any product.  I never market time though because you usually blow it doing that, but...

And now we're take at 27k, which I don't believe will last.  There's still not enough revenue in this economy and there won't be until everyone gets sick or there is a vaccine.
 
2020-06-08 3:21:07 PM  
FAKE NEWS!  We had the strongest economy in the universe.  The strongest economy ever in the history of economies!
 
2020-06-08 3:32:08 PM  
i felt it.

/laid off in february
 
2020-06-08 4:33:23 PM  

Hoobajube: I think that traders have associated the downturn so much with the coronavirus that the rebound we're seeing now comes from their false logic that COVID19 was the only problem with the economy.  Now that the pandemic has lost the spotlight and states have reopened, we're seeing Wall St. rally even though the economic fundamentals are much worse now than they were before COVID19 hit.


Have to get the rubes to all buy into the market, in order to short it before everything goes Bid Biden-a-boom.

Vhat Republicans will say and point out.
 
2020-06-08 5:13:05 PM  
Sounds about right. My son graduated from OUST on 20 March and we received formal notice of the closing of Leonard Wood to the public on the 10th. We had been getting mixed signals for a week or two prior to that.
 
2020-06-08 6:53:32 PM  

TheSubjunctive: I don't know about your public, but I certainly knew about it by February. Boobies on this site was January 6th.  Eighteen headlines here before February rolled around.


I remember posting in a thread with a similar headline early on, I but appear to have clicked, but not commented on that one.  Kind of disappointed that I didn't participate.
 
2020-06-08 7:00:15 PM  
The headline to the Farking Article is wrong and doesn't match the article (typically headlines are written by editors, not the author of the article).  The Farking Article itself says we entered the recession in March not February; instead, the peak was in February; IE, March was the first month showing a decline in economic activity.
 
2020-06-08 8:15:09 PM  
We lost our overtime (salary!), comp time, 401k match BUT got an extra week of vacation and kept our jobs (so far).  Automotive.

I am conflicted.

Fortunately I have a job that stays in demand so if it all goes south I can relocate.

/come on retirement
 
2020-06-08 9:15:16 PM  
Things were beginning to spin out of control
  before the virus was thrown into the mix.

So basically, the real data should look like...
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-06-08 11:05:23 PM  

growinthings: Subby, wouldn't it be a recession that was already started tin Feb., that the Corona Virus made much worse?  The worst damage to the economy truly started in March, April & May.


Recessions traditionally have been called at the 2nd quarter of contraction. So, basically, we were in recession prior to the worst. The Great Depression began in 1929 and didn't bottom out until 1933.
 
2020-06-08 11:11:01 PM  

TWX: So, before COVID-19 concerns had hit the public?


Because getting the year's medical stuff done just days after New Years because all hell was going to break lose in a few weeks was on everyone's mind at the hospital.    When someone has been f*cking with the supply chain since 2017, you expect that shortages will rise to the level of Russian life in the 1960s and 1970s when China and shipping shut down and everything you buy and every part you need is no longer in stock.

So long as you could buy stock in toilet paper companies, but not toilet paper, why worry.
 
2020-06-09 8:32:20 AM  
So the 10-2 inversion was right again.
 
2020-06-09 5:06:48 PM  

TWX: So, before COVID-19 concerns had hit the public?

Just curious given how we know that the recession is going to blamed on Chinese efforts with the virus.



No. This is bad reporting by a journalist (or headline writer) who doesn't understand the NBER.

The recession didn't start in February, that's when the economy peaked. Meaning, March activity on the aggregate was lower than in February.

The headline writer took that and ran with it as "when the recession started" which makes no sense to anyone at all.

NBER names the "peak" month and quarter before a recession. The March decline was so bad that it made the whole first quarter bad, so that the "peak" quarter was actually the last quarter of 2019. But no one is going to write that "the recession started in the last quarter of 2019" because it would be so patently absurd.
 
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