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(CNBC)   That decrease in unemployment numbers Trump bragged about? Yeah, about that   (cnbc.com) divider line
    More: Followup, Great Depression, Unemployment, unemployment rate, Economics, real unemployment rate, misclassification phenomenon, Census Bureau, exception of April  
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4885 clicks; posted to Politics » on 06 Jun 2020 at 11:50 AM (4 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2020-06-06 8:14:39 AM  
So Trump was celebrating the unemployment rate actually increasing and the stock market soared on lies? Fantastic

2020 is an amazing year
 
Xai [TotalFark] [BareFark]
2020-06-06 8:17:37 AM  
I'll point out that this 'error' has been present for some time, so numbers did go down, but they should have been from about 19% to 17%.

It's purely academic since unemployment is magnitudes worse than any other developed nation, even ones that have had longer and harsher lockdowns.
 
2020-06-06 8:19:00 AM  
I would show my surprised face, but it is tired.

1) ... Trump* lies
2) ... see 1
 
2020-06-06 8:30:51 AM  

NewportBarGuy: So Trump was celebrating the unemployment rate actually increasing and the stock market soared on lies? Fantastic

2020 is an amazing year


It did technically still go down from April to May.
 
2020-06-06 8:33:31 AM  

Xai: I'll point out that this 'error' has been present for some time, so numbers did go down, but they should have been from about 19% to 17%.

It's purely academic since unemployment is magnitudes worse than any other developed nation, even ones that have had longer and harsher lockdowns.


Perhaps, but there is zero reason for this administration to get the benefit of the doubt over an "error" that policy states can't be corrected, especially when that "error" conveniently happens to goose the stock market due to making the jobs report look "better than expected"
 
2020-06-06 8:33:31 AM  
So he'll be holding a press conference in the Rose Garden today to correct yesterday's press conference right?
 
2020-06-06 8:33:57 AM  

qorkfiend: NewportBarGuy: So Trump was celebrating the unemployment rate actually increasing and the stock market soared on lies? Fantastic

2020 is an amazing year

It did technically still go down from April to May.


Sounds like the April figures are goofed up too, oops, sorry we got caught, it's the Dems fault.
 
2020-06-06 8:40:35 AM  

KarmicDisaster: qorkfiend: NewportBarGuy: So Trump was celebrating the unemployment rate actually increasing and the stock market soared on lies? Fantastic

2020 is an amazing year

It did technically still go down from April to May.

Sounds like the April figures are goofed up too, oops, sorry we got caught, it's the Dems fault.


Oh and once we release them, we can't go back and correct them! That would look political.
 
2020-06-06 8:43:06 AM  

OldRod: So he'll be holding a press conference in the Rose Garden today to correct yesterday's press conference right?


He will be inspecting the bunker again today, and provide the correction there.
 
2020-06-06 8:46:39 AM  

Sin'sHero: OldRod: So he'll be holding a press conference in the Rose Garden today to correct yesterday's press conference right?

He will be inspecting the bunker again today, and provide the correction there.


Is that where he brings Lindsey for their "meetings"?
 
2020-06-06 8:50:33 AM  

NewportBarGuy: So Trump was celebrating the unemployment rate actually increasing


No. The April numbers had the same error, and it affected even more people in April, so the change in the umemployment rate was actually better than Trump claimed. The unemployment rate did improve, but it was from 19.8 to 16.3, rather than (as reported) from 14.7 to 13.3.

In other words, Trump claimed a 1.4 point improvement and it was actually 3.5.

Be that as it may, who else but Trump would brag about 16% unemployment? "Sure things really suck. But they sucked even harder last month, so all praise me."
 
2020-06-06 9:09:15 AM  

tomasso: NewportBarGuy: So Trump was celebrating the unemployment rate actually increasing

No. The April numbers had the same error, and it affected even more people in April, so the change in the umemployment rate was actually better than Trump claimed. The unemployment rate did improve, but it was from 19.8 to 16.3, rather than (as reported) from 14.7 to 13.3.

In other words, Trump claimed a 1.4 point improvement and it was actually 3.5.

Be that as it may, who else but Trump would brag about 16% unemployment? "Sure things really suck. But they sucked even harder last month, so all praise me."


Got you... it's horrifically bad, but not 20% bad, but we still don't know yet how bad.

But your last point.... that's what got me. The markets are soaring because people are FOMOing into every goddamn thing like it is Pets.com and Trump thinks the market is fixed and everything is back to normal.

Mother of god, the delusion right now. The outright delusion. I have never seen anything like this.
 
2020-06-06 9:10:58 AM  
Do we know where the jobs are?  Looks like it all low paying, no benefit ones.
 
2020-06-06 9:56:12 AM  
Is the rate still based on the number of people on unemployment compensation? Because that's a piss poor indicator.
 
2020-06-06 10:22:15 AM  

Xai: I'll point out that this 'error' has been present for some time, so numbers did go down, but they should have been from about 19% to 17%.

It's purely academic since unemployment is magnitudes worse than any other developed nation, even ones that have had longer and harsher lockdowns.


Businesses in other countries aren't nearly as efficient as here in Murica. We've practically weaponized killing jobs and cutting pay at the drop of a stock ticker.
 
2020-06-06 10:25:48 AM  
Yeah, we knew this yesterday morning, not two hours after the numbers were released. Yet EVERYONE kept reporting the incorrect numbers ALL DAY LONG.

The market knew. Everyone was talking about it. But nobody cared. Just BRRRRRRRRRRRRR all day long. I got me a piece of it, too. Hell, don't fight the trend.

After a few years of trading, I've learned to stop questioning why the market doesn't respond logically. Just trade the trend. And when the trend ends, new trend! Trade that!

Seriously, I'll never understand being 100% bullish or 100% bearish. That way seems insane to me.
 
2020-06-06 10:40:34 AM  
The chocolate ration has been increased to 10 grams.
 
2020-06-06 11:06:39 AM  
Called it. The moment it was announced it had to be wrong
 
2020-06-06 11:45:25 AM  

HawgWild: Yeah, we knew this yesterday morning, not two hours after the numbers were released. Yet EVERYONE kept reporting the incorrect numbers ALL DAY LONG.

The market knew. Everyone was talking about it. But nobody cared. Just BRRRRRRRRRRRRR all day long. I got me a piece of it, too. Hell, don't fight the trend.

After a few years of trading, I've learned to stop questioning why the market doesn't respond logically. Just trade the trend. And when the trend ends, new trend! Trade that!

Seriously, I'll never understand being 100% bullish or 100% bearish. That way seems insane to me.


The entire reason the market has been trending up is probably because people are using Fed money to pump it so they can cover their margin shortfall from March/April, hoping idiots would take the bait. Literal fake news like this is free fuel on the imaginary bull ride, and it worked. That's the whole reason for reopening too, while a thousand die a day.
 
2020-06-06 11:47:55 AM  

koder: HawgWild: Yeah, we knew this yesterday morning, not two hours after the numbers were released. Yet EVERYONE kept reporting the incorrect numbers ALL DAY LONG.

The market knew. Everyone was talking about it. But nobody cared. Just BRRRRRRRRRRRRR all day long. I got me a piece of it, too. Hell, don't fight the trend.

After a few years of trading, I've learned to stop questioning why the market doesn't respond logically. Just trade the trend. And when the trend ends, new trend! Trade that!

Seriously, I'll never understand being 100% bullish or 100% bearish. That way seems insane to me.

The entire reason the market has been trending up is probably because people are using Fed money to pump it so they can cover their margin shortfall from March/April, hoping idiots would take the bait. Literal fake news like this is free fuel on the imaginary bull ride, and it worked. That's the whole reason for reopening too, while a thousand die a day.


Hence my BRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR

Fed has been propping this up for YEARS.
 
2020-06-06 11:52:34 AM  
 
2020-06-06 11:54:25 AM  
media-amazon.comView Full Size


something something springtime for Twitler
 
2020-06-06 11:56:38 AM  

Xai: I'll point out that this 'error' has been present for some time, so numbers did go down, but they should have been from about 19% to 17%.

It's purely academic since unemployment is magnitudes worse than any other developed nation, even ones that have had longer and harsher lockdowns.


They've been understating the unemployment numbers for a long time? That doesn't make it better, especially when Trump likes to brag about the incorrect numbers.
 
2020-06-06 12:00:20 PM  
So, is George Floyd no longer "looking down and smiling" at how awesome Trump's economy is?
 
2020-06-06 12:01:10 PM  

Gubbo: Called it. The moment it was announced it had to be wrong


What tipped you off?  The fact that nobody could explain why it was so low?
 
2020-06-06 12:05:00 PM  
You can't gaslight people that are out of work and have no money to think everything is okay. You can skew the numbers as much as you want, but people still can look out their window, or look in their bank account, and see reality firsthand.

Things aren't better... things have just plateaued. The virus infections will get worse again, except this time Trump along with many governors and mayors have stated that they won't shut down businesses again. This weekend marks 2 weeks since Memorial Day weekend, so we're gonna see real quick if we have to worry or not. My guess is most of us already know the outcome.

Combine that with the fact that people don't really feel safe enough to go out like they used to. Restaurants, bars, movie and stage theaters, and a slew of other businesses large and small impacted by the virus will feel the effects for months to come, and many will shut down and disappear. That will be something Wall St. simply can't ignore, regardless of how much money is pumped into it.

The fed is desperate to try and keep Wall St. up in time for the elections, but all that's doing is waking many up to the idea that Wall St. is and always has been a bad way to track an economy, a way that is slow to respond and easy to manipulate.
 
2020-06-06 12:05:58 PM  
Are a lot of people still having problems with applying for it? I've thought from the beginning that that was purposely not fixed to cook the numbers, among other things mentioned.
 
2020-06-06 12:06:50 PM  

someonelse: So, is George Floyd no longer "looking down and smiling" at how awesome Trump's economy is?


I heard George Floyd was crying this morning because I'm told he had some stonks that are going to go down next week. Clearly this Fox News 'George Floyd murder stock bump' was only temporary.
 
2020-06-06 12:08:17 PM  

quiotu: You can't gaslight people that are out of work and have no money to think everything is okay. You can skew the numbers as much as you want, but people still can look out their window, or look in their bank account, and see reality firsthand.

Things aren't better... things have just plateaued. The virus infections will get worse again, except this time Trump along with many governors and mayors have stated that they won't shut down businesses again. This weekend marks 2 weeks since Memorial Day weekend, so we're gonna see real quick if we have to worry or not. My guess is most of us already know the outcome.

Combine that with the fact that people don't really feel safe enough to go out like they used to. Restaurants, bars, movie and stage theaters, and a slew of other businesses large and small impacted by the virus will feel the effects for months to come, and many will shut down and disappear. That will be something Wall St. simply can't ignore, regardless of how much money is pumped into it.

The fed is desperate to try and keep Wall St. up in time for the elections, but all that's doing is waking many up to the idea that Wall St. is and always has been a bad way to track an economy, a way that is slow to respond and easy to manipulate.


Think about the number of people who have mortgages in forebearance who couldn't make two mortgage payments in a month in the best of times.

Throw a bunch of new foreclosures on this economy in a couple months. Gonna be awesome.
 
2020-06-06 12:09:13 PM  
Obama did the same thing during the recession.  His numbers ultimately stopped reflecting people who were no longer looking for employment or those that we're no longer eligible for unemployment.

I stopped putting any credibility into the presidential reported unemployment numbers a long time ago.
 
2020-06-06 12:11:34 PM  

qorkfiend: NewportBarGuy: So Trump was celebrating the unemployment rate actually increasing and the stock market soared on lies? Fantastic

2020 is an amazing year

It did technically still go down from April to May.


Even with states opening up, I think they shifted some of the numbers from one month to another to give a better bump to this number and try to overshadow all the other shiat going on.

Same with covid numbers coming out from places like Florida and Georgia.  Cooking the books to make things look good in the short term.

Change my mind.
 
2020-06-06 12:12:02 PM  
Unemployment numbers will dramatically improve quickly.

The stimulus package passed by Congress incentivized layoffs and firings by making unemployment the only means of applying for enough benefits to pay the bills during the shutdown.  By making that policy choice, Congress created the conditions for artificially massive unemployment. As the shutdown ends there should be artificially massive reemployment.

You must understand that neither number was the direct result of a change in economic conditions. We won't be able to understand the actual economic effects of the shutdown until after the end of all limiting conditions. There clearly are harmful effects, but the problem is that it is almost impossible to differentiate between layoffs so folks could apply for enhanced benefits and actual layoffs. The distinction will become easier to detect when we see how robust the rehiring turns out to be.

So don't hang all of the unemployment on Trump's incompetence and don't cheer against robust rehiring.  Deal with the truth of the situation.  There's plenty to criticize Trump about without abandoning the truth.
 
2020-06-06 12:12:25 PM  

Olliewog: Obama did the same thing during the recession.  His numbers ultimately stopped reflecting people who were no longer looking for employment or those that we're no longer eligible for unemployment.

I stopped putting any credibility into the presidential reported unemployment numbers a long time ago.


No he didn't no matter what the little voices in your head tell you to validate the assumptions you're making with zero evidence. The BLS methodology is exceedingly clear and documented on their website.
 
2020-06-06 12:13:48 PM  
The fact that the Dow is back to 27000 points is TOTAL BS. The value of Boeing, the REAL unemployment numbers, the percentage of people with low-paying and no benefits jobs, the tens of thousands STILL waiting on unemployment benefits, the percentage of people taking cruises or flying pre-Covid-19, the decreased inventory inside the thousands of retail stores that just opened, automobile sales, AND THE FEDERAL RESERVE'S MANIPULATION OF THE MARKET THAT HAS NO BEARING AT ALL ON THE ACTUAL STATE OF THE US ECONOMY.

Just bring it back to 29,000 on Monday and lets all pretend that orange shiat-gibbon is making America great!
 
2020-06-06 12:14:57 PM  

cousin-merle: Gubbo: Called it. The moment it was announced it had to be wrong

What tipped you off?  The fact that nobody could explain why it was so low?


And yet how many news organisations just, for some inexplicable reason, reported on something that they were told by Trump as if it were the truth

Madness
 
2020-06-06 12:16:19 PM  

T-Boy: Unemployment numbers will dramatically improve quickly.

The stimulus package passed by Congress incentivized layoffs and firings by making unemployment the only means of applying for enough benefits to pay the bills during the shutdown.  By making that policy choice, Congress created the conditions for artificially massive unemployment. As the shutdown ends there should be artificially massive reemployment.

You must understand that neither number was the direct result of a change in economic conditions. We won't be able to understand the actual economic effects of the shutdown until after the end of all limiting conditions. There clearly are harmful effects, but the problem is that it is almost impossible to differentiate between layoffs so folks could apply for enhanced benefits and actual layoffs. The distinction will become easier to detect when we see how robust the rehiring turns out to be.

So don't hang all of the unemployment on Trump's incompetence and don't cheer against robust rehiring.  Deal with the truth of the situation.  There's plenty to criticize Trump about without abandoning the truth.


The purpose of pumping these numbers was to cut off recovery legislation which might have actually saved the economy. Tens of millions are out of work and the unemployment rate you're jacking off to is worse than any previous postwar decision. If it weren't for data collection issues, it would  be even higher.

Due to Trump's utter lack of leadership on COVID, we're adding 20K new coronavirus cases a day. The next round of lock downs is right around the corner.

This ain't nothin.
 
2020-06-06 12:19:28 PM  
With his approval ratings sinking like a stone, even among members of his base, Lord Cheeto and his gang had to come up with something, anything, for him to brag about.

So they took the data from the Dept of Labor, and fondled the numbers like a teen contestant at one of Trump's beauty pageants.

/invoking George Floyd's name was just the icing on the horsesh*t cake
 
kab
2020-06-06 12:21:07 PM  
The reported numbers have always been a lowball.  This is no different.

thismomentinblackhistory: The next round of lock downs is right around the corner.


There won't be another round of lock downs.   Protests and the media coverage of it are doing a fantastic job of making people forget about the virus, and you'll simply see case numbers not provided or fudged, just like death counts from it.

As a proud 'murkin, you'll just have to accept that an economic model based on nothing other than perception of value is far more real and important than your ability to live.

Now, get the fark back to work asap.
 
2020-06-06 12:22:01 PM  
It's no surprise why there are protests and riots. 15%-20% of people are unemployed and many more are underemployed. They have lots of time on their hands, the $1200 in Tricky Trump Fun Bucks has run out, and they're aware that they can't eat stock market points.
 
2020-06-06 12:23:12 PM  
IN UR DATA
CHECKIN UR KURTOSIS
 
2020-06-06 12:26:23 PM  
I'm starting to consider the possibility that this Donald Trump fellow may not be entirely honest about the things he says.
 
2020-06-06 12:26:52 PM  

NewportBarGuy: tomasso: NewportBarGuy: So Trump was celebrating the unemployment rate actually increasing

No. The April numbers had the same error, and it affected even more people in April, so the change in the umemployment rate was actually better than Trump claimed. The unemployment rate did improve, but it was from 19.8 to 16.3, rather than (as reported) from 14.7 to 13.3.

In other words, Trump claimed a 1.4 point improvement and it was actually 3.5.

Be that as it may, who else but Trump would brag about 16% unemployment? "Sure things really suck. But they sucked even harder last month, so all praise me."

Got you... it's horrifically bad, but not 20% bad, but we still don't know yet how bad.

But your last point.... that's what got me. The markets are soaring because people are FOMOing into every goddamn thing like it is Pets.com and Trump thinks the market is fixed and everything is back to normal.

Mother of god, the delusion right now. The outright delusion. I have never seen anything like this.


There is a saying we use in accounting/finance.

"The markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."

I agree that markets are divorced from the reality of the situation, but I will say the markets screeching higher does make sense. There was 3 trillion dollars printed, and rates were cut to 0. The natural flow of capital would be to leave bonds since the rates are so low to an asset that can achieve higher rates, stocks. Plus the Fed is going to start(started?) buying corporate debt ETFs if I read it correctly. Soon to be municipalities. When the Fed steps in to buy, price doesn't matter. You can sell them a pile of shiat for $9K and they'll buy it. I want to reach out to Powell and see if he will take my shiatty Action off my hands, or some baseball cards. Since price does not matter, prices will naturally head up cuz the buyer does not care. Charge whatever if the Fed is buying.

The opposite occurs when rates rise. Capital flees stocks and heads to bonds since it is a guaranteed rate of return. That is why it is deemed difficult to raise rates because markets fall. It's hard to stay in power when there are selloffs.

But looking at just headlines, yeah, wtf is happening. But following flows of capital it makes sense.
 
2020-06-06 12:28:50 PM  
Not to mention that K-12 schools across the country still don't have a plan for the fall yet.

And no, just going back to school like normal is not a plan.
 
2020-06-06 12:30:23 PM  

oldernell: Do we know where the jobs are?  Looks like it all low paying, no benefit ones.


I got a job at a mini-mart after being denied unemployment, again.
Repeat 10 million times. Hell, repeat about 10 times just for me. That's how it works.
And that's why nobody can get good service anymore. If you think that we give a fark about your whiny ass, asking why the latte machine is down, then think again.

But this is what you all want, apparently. The money rolls in all day long, selling shiat and convenience.
 
2020-06-06 12:31:37 PM  
Don't let them boast about wage increases either.  That's skewed since all of the low-wage earners have been laid off or furloughed, the wages that they're counting are the higher paid jobs which are still operating.

It sounds bad, but when the wage earnings decrease, you'll know more hirings are happening because those low-earning jobs are starting to come back.
 
2020-06-06 12:37:32 PM  

lindalouwho: Are a lot of people still having problems with applying for it? I've thought from the beginning that that was purposely not fixed to cook the numbers, among other things mentioned.


In FL it's horrendous, mostly by design.
 
2020-06-06 12:41:07 PM  

T-Boy: Unemployment numbers will dramatically improve quickly.

The stimulus package passed by Congress incentivized layoffs and firings by making unemployment the only means of applying for enough benefits to pay the bills during the shutdown.  By making that policy choice, Congress created the conditions for artificially massive unemployment. As the shutdown ends there should be artificially massive reemployment.

You must understand that neither number was the direct result of a change in economic conditions. We won't be able to understand the actual economic effects of the shutdown until after the end of all limiting conditions. There clearly are harmful effects, but the problem is that it is almost impossible to differentiate between layoffs so folks could apply for enhanced benefits and actual layoffs. The distinction will become easier to detect when we see how robust the rehiring turns out to be.

So don't hang all of the unemployment on Trump's incompetence and don't cheer against robust rehiring.  Deal with the truth of the situation.  There's plenty to criticize Trump about without abandoning the truth.


Of course employment is going to get better when you reopen everything prematurely. The question is what has changed from the day everything was closed, to justify the reopening besides everything being worse?
 
2020-06-06 12:41:17 PM  
Look, lets' be clear about something.  Even if there was a known mistake in the data at the time he was saying it, he STILL would have reported the favorable numbers.

In fact, he could do it again next week.  He could come out with a "report" that doesn't even exist.  And that report could say that unemployment is on its way to zero.  And job growth is rebounding at an alarming rate.

Even though there is evidence to the contrary.  Even though the report would immediately be shot down as fake, his supporters would hear it, and THAT would be the truth of the matter.  And good luck changing their minds about it.

Seriously.  It's one of the 1000s of reasons that Trump should not be allowed to speak about ANYTHING until information has been verified.  Like, you know, every other President in history.
 
2020-06-06 12:42:34 PM  
Mistake.

Yeah, sure.
 
2020-06-06 12:42:52 PM  

someonelse: So, is George Floyd no longer "looking down and smiling" at how awesome Trump's economy is?


When he said that,
Fark user imageView Full Size

I made this face and I know you did too.
 
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