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(Reuters)   20%   (reuters.com) divider line
    More: News, Great Depression, Labor Department, Unemployment, Layoff, labor market, economists' dire predictions, Labor Department's Bureau, U.S. unemployment rate  
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2613 clicks; posted to Business » on 05 Jun 2020 at 2:55 AM (1 year ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



Voting Results (Smartest)
View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest

 
2020-06-05 1:00:45 AM  
13 votes:
The amount the Dow went up this month ?
 
2020-06-05 1:21:31 AM  
10 votes:
At the peak of the Great Depression in 1933 it was 24.9%.
 
2020-06-05 7:28:44 AM  
9 votes:

Nullav: I dont want to be on this planet anymore: The amount the Dow went up this month ?

I'd say ignore it, it's in its own frustrating bubble world right now, but I've seen some of the biggest green candles the very moment unemployment numbers are reported for like two months now. It's like it's not just detached from reality, but rallying out of spite.


People should consider what it means if the market actually does reflect reality, which is that so many people have so little capital that they just have no impact on various economic indicators.

The depressing truth is, that those 20 percent were making so little before the lockdown that they weren't buying cars, taking vacations, purchasing lots of electronics, etc., which all fuel corporate profits. When you earn $27k, all of your money goes to rent and food - there's not much left for anything else.
 
2020-06-05 8:05:47 AM  
7 votes:
It was already close to 20% last month. Buried deep in the report was a technical note about data editing. TL;DR, there were ~5 million job losses miss classified, had they been correctly classified the unemployment rate would have been about 5% higher.

"If the workers who were recorded as employed but absent from work due to "other reasons" (over and above the number absent for other reasons in a typical April) had been classified as unemployed  on temporary layoff, the overall unemployment rate would have been almost 5 percentage points higher  than reported (on a not seasonally adjusted basis). However, according to usual practice, the data from the household survey are accepted as recorded. To maintain data integrity, no ad hoc actions are taken to reclassify survey responses. "
 
2020-06-05 3:54:20 AM  
6 votes:
Stonks are pure cryptocurrency now. It's all completely speculative trading values and the money is made on the bets. It's like craps meets Monopoly.

/ Except ALL the old, floppy worn-out shoes get thrown into jail.
 
2020-06-05 7:37:01 AM  
5 votes:

CrazyCurt: Stonks are pure cryptocurrency now. It's all completely speculative trading values and the money is made on the bets.

Have you been living under a rock the past 15 years?

I'll give you that this was widely regarded as true, way back when.  But there's nothing speculative about the stock market today.  It's the exact opposite.  The stock market could not be any less speculative.  The federal government has made it consistently clear through its actions that it will bail out the rich at any cost to the country.  Plague, civil unrest, economic depression -- fark the country; they will throw everything they have at protecting the stock market over any other priority.  With that level of brazen dedication, it's actually a darn safe move to put your money there.  If anything, it could be the safest investment in the world right now, so why wouldn't it be up?  The real economic impact of the pandemic is inconsequential to the stock market if the government response was to protect the latter from the former.

The health of the stock market has nothing to do with what's going on out there, because the health of the stock market has literally nothing to do with what's going on out there.  It's not so much a casino as it is analogous to a mammoth trust fund for the rentier class that's got a giant pump and hose connecting it to the U.S. Treasury.
 
2020-06-05 9:09:38 AM  
5 votes:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/new​-​jobless-claims-climb-188-million-at-en​d-of-may-2020-06-04

Over 15 million new jobless claims in May and we somehow added 2.5 million jobs overall?  How is that even possible?
 
2020-06-05 1:13:23 AM  
4 votes:
Welcome to Trump World.

Home of the Trump Economy, the Trump Plague, the Trump Crash, the Trump Bullshiat Market, the Trump Empire, the Cult of Trump, the God Emperor Trump, and all kinds of trumps passing for trumpery little dictators and evil minions. The Trumpwazie, worse than the Bushzie Zombies.

President Turnip thinks he's harder than Pumpkinhead and Pinhead, but that is just his solid to the core bonehead.

Somebody needs to put the spurs to President Wish Bone, aka  Bone Spur the mule.
 
2020-06-05 8:44:45 AM  
4 votes:

QFarker: Somewhere between 13% and 14%.


13.3%, gain of 2.5 million jobs in May.
 
2020-06-05 3:25:39 AM  
3 votes:

I dont want to be on this planet anymore: The amount the Dow went up this month ?


I'd say ignore it, it's in its own frustrating bubble world right now, but I've seen some of the biggest green candles the very moment unemployment numbers are reported for like two months now. It's like it's not just detached from reality, but rallying out of spite.
 
2020-06-05 7:29:55 AM  
3 votes:
And somehow the overall housing market is unaffected, even robust in some places. I swear every morning I have to convince myself I did not wake up in an alternate reality
 
2020-06-05 7:53:04 AM  
2 votes:

thisispete: At the peak of the Great Depression in 1933 it was 24.9%.


I've said it in other threads, but we'll cross that at the end of this month.  46 state governments and their public schools and universities have been treading water on last fiscal year's budget, but the new budget year starts July 1st.
 
2020-06-05 10:48:17 AM  
2 votes:
Total Job Numbers During Obama's Last 40 Months
8,812,000

Total Job Numbers During Trump's First 40 Months
-12,715,000

Source for job number
 
2020-06-05 12:24:33 PM  
2 votes:
Fark user imageView Full Size

Welcome to the stock market, where the numbers are made up and the facts don't matter.
 
2020-06-05 1:14:57 AM  
1 vote:

I dont want to be on this planet anymore: The amount the Dow went up this month ?


Dead Cat Bounce? Greater Fool Theory? Pure speculative irrational exuberence in the absence of the millstone on the Markets called the Real World and the Economy?
 
2020-06-05 6:31:38 AM  
1 vote:
The investment class needs a healthy market. It's the last metric for Trump's reelection efforts. In spite of the fact 84% of stocks are owned by the wealthiest 10% of households, Americans still seem to correlate market health with overall economic stability.
Investors just need to keep that market artificially inflated through October to give Trump a chance. Because if the market tanks, his approval might actually fall below that 38-43% range.
 
2020-06-05 6:44:55 AM  
1 vote:

brantgoose: I dont want to be on this planet anymore: The amount the Dow went up this month ?

Dead Cat Bounce? Greater Fool Theory? Pure speculative irrational exuberence in the absence of the millstone on the Markets called the Real World and the Economy?


The fed magically finding trillions over night to keep quant machines greased?
 
2020-06-05 7:50:58 AM  
1 vote:

FarkaDark: And somehow the overall housing market is unaffected, even robust in some places. I swear every morning I have to convince myself I did not wake up in an alternate reality


Do you really think that many restaurant and retail workers earn enough to own homes?
 
2020-06-05 8:14:40 AM  
1 vote:

CrazyCurt: Stonks are pure cryptocurrency now. It's all completely speculative trading values and the money is made on the bets. It's like craps meets Monopoly.

/ Except ALL the old, floppy worn-out shoes get thrown into jail.


There's also a couple trillion dollars that got dumped into the economy and the Fed is buying up bonds like there's no tomorrow to further inject cash while simultaneously making it so there's virtually no ROI from any investment other than stocks.
 
2020-06-05 8:42:31 AM  
1 vote:
Somewhere between 13% and 14%.
 
2020-06-05 8:56:33 AM  
1 vote:

BunkyBrewman: thisispete: At the peak of the Great Depression in 1933 it was 24.9%.

[Fark user image 500x189] [View Full Size image _x_]


Well, shiat's farked.
 
2020-06-05 9:05:48 AM  
1 vote:

AngryDragon: QFarker: Somewhere between 13% and 14%.

Yeah, the fearmongers are working overtime.


I suspect some fiddling with the numbers by the administration.  Trump to give a victory speech in less than an hour talking about the bigliest jobs gains ever.
 
2020-06-05 9:36:27 AM  
1 vote:

imaconnect4guy: Over 15 million new jobless claims in May and we somehow added 2.5 million jobs overall? How is that even possible?

Yeah there's some gawdawful obfuscation going on that would make Best Korea blush.  I don't think they're fudging the numbers so they can remain "technically correct", but both TFA and your source contradict themselves by being deliberately vague about what they're actually looking at.
 
2020-06-05 9:50:21 AM  
1 vote:
It looks like this is driven by temporary layoffs coming back, but permanent job losses are still happening.
https://twitter.com/MattZeitlin/statu​s​/1268884992052035584
 
2020-06-05 10:03:47 AM  
1 vote:

MysticKakarrott: It looks like this is driven by temporary layoffs coming back

LOL, they didn't add shiat then.

That makes "jobless rate fell" OK, because it did, but "added jobs" that only temporarily weren't there is like if I broke my leg and then it healed, the media would report I grew a third leg.
 
2020-06-05 10:19:38 AM  
1 vote:

Sajuuk Khar: QFarker: Somewhere between 13% and 14%.

13.3%, gain of 2.5 million jobs in May.


I just saw this. What is going on?

I doubt this.
 
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