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    More: News, Great Depression, Labor Department, Unemployment, Layoff, labor market, economists' dire predictions, Labor Department's Bureau, U.S. unemployment rate  
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2355 clicks; posted to Business » on 05 Jun 2020 at 2:55 AM (4 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2020-06-05 1:00:45 AM  
The amount the Dow went up this month ?
 
2020-06-05 1:13:23 AM  
Welcome to Trump World.

Home of the Trump Economy, the Trump Plague, the Trump Crash, the Trump Bullshiat Market, the Trump Empire, the Cult of Trump, the God Emperor Trump, and all kinds of trumps passing for trumpery little dictators and evil minions. The Trumpwazie, worse than the Bushzie Zombies.

President Turnip thinks he's harder than Pumpkinhead and Pinhead, but that is just his solid to the core bonehead.

Somebody needs to put the spurs to President Wish Bone, aka  Bone Spur the mule.
 
2020-06-05 1:14:57 AM  

I dont want to be on this planet anymore: The amount the Dow went up this month ?


Dead Cat Bounce? Greater Fool Theory? Pure speculative irrational exuberence in the absence of the millstone on the Markets called the Real World and the Economy?
 
2020-06-05 1:16:40 AM  
But what's U-6?
 
2020-06-05 1:21:31 AM  
At the peak of the Great Depression in 1933 it was 24.9%.
 
2020-06-05 3:25:39 AM  

I dont want to be on this planet anymore: The amount the Dow went up this month ?


I'd say ignore it, it's in its own frustrating bubble world right now, but I've seen some of the biggest green candles the very moment unemployment numbers are reported for like two months now. It's like it's not just detached from reality, but rallying out of spite.
 
2020-06-05 3:54:20 AM  
Stonks are pure cryptocurrency now. It's all completely speculative trading values and the money is made on the bets. It's like craps meets Monopoly.

/ Except ALL the old, floppy worn-out shoes get thrown into jail.
 
2020-06-05 6:31:38 AM  
The investment class needs a healthy market. It's the last metric for Trump's reelection efforts. In spite of the fact 84% of stocks are owned by the wealthiest 10% of households, Americans still seem to correlate market health with overall economic stability.
Investors just need to keep that market artificially inflated through October to give Trump a chance. Because if the market tanks, his approval might actually fall below that 38-43% range.
 
2020-06-05 6:44:55 AM  

brantgoose: I dont want to be on this planet anymore: The amount the Dow went up this month ?

Dead Cat Bounce? Greater Fool Theory? Pure speculative irrational exuberence in the absence of the millstone on the Markets called the Real World and the Economy?


The fed magically finding trillions over night to keep quant machines greased?
 
2020-06-05 7:28:44 AM  

Nullav: I dont want to be on this planet anymore: The amount the Dow went up this month ?

I'd say ignore it, it's in its own frustrating bubble world right now, but I've seen some of the biggest green candles the very moment unemployment numbers are reported for like two months now. It's like it's not just detached from reality, but rallying out of spite.


People should consider what it means if the market actually does reflect reality, which is that so many people have so little capital that they just have no impact on various economic indicators.

The depressing truth is, that those 20 percent were making so little before the lockdown that they weren't buying cars, taking vacations, purchasing lots of electronics, etc., which all fuel corporate profits. When you earn $27k, all of your money goes to rent and food - there's not much left for anything else.
 
2020-06-05 7:29:55 AM  
And somehow the overall housing market is unaffected, even robust in some places. I swear every morning I have to convince myself I did not wake up in an alternate reality
 
2020-06-05 7:37:01 AM  

CrazyCurt: Stonks are pure cryptocurrency now. It's all completely speculative trading values and the money is made on the bets.

Have you been living under a rock the past 15 years?

I'll give you that this was widely regarded as true, way back when.  But there's nothing speculative about the stock market today.  It's the exact opposite.  The stock market could not be any less speculative.  The federal government has made it consistently clear through its actions that it will bail out the rich at any cost to the country.  Plague, civil unrest, economic depression -- fark the country; they will throw everything they have at protecting the stock market over any other priority.  With that level of brazen dedication, it's actually a darn safe move to put your money there.  If anything, it could be the safest investment in the world right now, so why wouldn't it be up?  The real economic impact of the pandemic is inconsequential to the stock market if the government response was to protect the latter from the former.

The health of the stock market has nothing to do with what's going on out there, because the health of the stock market has literally nothing to do with what's going on out there.  It's not so much a casino as it is analogous to a mammoth trust fund for the rentier class that's got a giant pump and hose connecting it to the U.S. Treasury.
 
2020-06-05 7:43:52 AM  
That should kick the market into overdrive. We'll have Dow 30k by end of next week.
 
2020-06-05 7:50:58 AM  

FarkaDark: And somehow the overall housing market is unaffected, even robust in some places. I swear every morning I have to convince myself I did not wake up in an alternate reality


Do you really think that many restaurant and retail workers earn enough to own homes?
 
2020-06-05 7:53:04 AM  

thisispete: At the peak of the Great Depression in 1933 it was 24.9%.


I've said it in other threads, but we'll cross that at the end of this month.  46 state governments and their public schools and universities have been treading water on last fiscal year's budget, but the new budget year starts July 1st.
 
2020-06-05 8:05:47 AM  
It was already close to 20% last month. Buried deep in the report was a technical note about data editing. TL;DR, there were ~5 million job losses miss classified, had they been correctly classified the unemployment rate would have been about 5% higher.

"If the workers who were recorded as employed but absent from work due to "other reasons" (over and above the number absent for other reasons in a typical April) had been classified as unemployed  on temporary layoff, the overall unemployment rate would have been almost 5 percentage points higher  than reported (on a not seasonally adjusted basis). However, according to usual practice, the data from the household survey are accepted as recorded. To maintain data integrity, no ad hoc actions are taken to reclassify survey responses. "
 
2020-06-05 8:14:40 AM  

CrazyCurt: Stonks are pure cryptocurrency now. It's all completely speculative trading values and the money is made on the bets. It's like craps meets Monopoly.

/ Except ALL the old, floppy worn-out shoes get thrown into jail.


There's also a couple trillion dollars that got dumped into the economy and the Fed is buying up bonds like there's no tomorrow to further inject cash while simultaneously making it so there's virtually no ROI from any investment other than stocks.
 
2020-06-05 8:19:35 AM  

thisispete: At the peak of the Great Depression in 1933 it was 24.9%.


Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-06-05 8:29:26 AM  

vygramul: U-6


You have sunk my battleship.
 
2020-06-05 8:42:31 AM  
Somewhere between 13% and 14%.
 
2020-06-05 8:44:45 AM  

QFarker: Somewhere between 13% and 14%.


13.3%, gain of 2.5 million jobs in May.
 
2020-06-05 8:45:31 AM  

QFarker: Somewhere between 13% and 14%.


Yeah, the fearmongers are working overtime.
 
2020-06-05 8:56:33 AM  

BunkyBrewman: thisispete: At the peak of the Great Depression in 1933 it was 24.9%.

[Fark user image 500x189] [View Full Size image _x_]


Well, shiat's farked.
 
2020-06-05 9:05:48 AM  

AngryDragon: QFarker: Somewhere between 13% and 14%.

Yeah, the fearmongers are working overtime.


I suspect some fiddling with the numbers by the administration.  Trump to give a victory speech in less than an hour talking about the bigliest jobs gains ever.
 
2020-06-05 9:09:38 AM  
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/new​-​jobless-claims-climb-188-million-at-en​d-of-may-2020-06-04

Over 15 million new jobless claims in May and we somehow added 2.5 million jobs overall?  How is that even possible?
 
2020-06-05 9:36:27 AM  

imaconnect4guy: Over 15 million new jobless claims in May and we somehow added 2.5 million jobs overall? How is that even possible?

Yeah there's some gawdawful obfuscation going on that would make Best Korea blush.  I don't think they're fudging the numbers so they can remain "technically correct", but both TFA and your source contradict themselves by being deliberately vague about what they're actually looking at.
 
2020-06-05 9:50:21 AM  
It looks like this is driven by temporary layoffs coming back, but permanent job losses are still happening.
https://twitter.com/MattZeitlin/statu​s​/1268884992052035584
 
2020-06-05 10:03:47 AM  

MysticKakarrott: It looks like this is driven by temporary layoffs coming back

LOL, they didn't add shiat then.

That makes "jobless rate fell" OK, because it did, but "added jobs" that only temporarily weren't there is like if I broke my leg and then it healed, the media would report I grew a third leg.
 
2020-06-05 10:19:38 AM  

Sajuuk Khar: QFarker: Somewhere between 13% and 14%.

13.3%, gain of 2.5 million jobs in May.


I just saw this. What is going on?

I doubt this.
 
2020-06-05 10:45:41 AM  

brantgoose: I dont want to be on this planet anymore: The amount the Dow went up this month ?

Dead Cat Bounce? Greater Fool Theory? Pure speculative irrational exuberence in the absence of the millstone on the Markets called the Real World and the Economy?


People wanting to get back to normal unaware of the second wave.
 
2020-06-05 10:48:17 AM  
Total Job Numbers During Obama's Last 40 Months
8,812,000

Total Job Numbers During Trump's First 40 Months
-12,715,000

Source for job number
 
2020-06-05 11:13:00 AM  

thisispete: BunkyBrewman: thisispete: At the peak of the Great Depression in 1933 it was 24.9%.

[Fark user image 500x189] [View Full Size image _x_]

Well, shiat's farked.


Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-06-05 12:24:33 PM  
Fark user imageView Full Size

Welcome to the stock market, where the numbers are made up and the facts don't matter.
 
2020-06-05 12:27:02 PM  

dragonchild: CrazyCurt: Stonks are pure cryptocurrency now. It's all completely speculative trading values and the money is made on the bets.
Have you been living under a rock the past 15 years?

I'll give you that this was widely regarded as true, way back when.  But there's nothing speculative about the stock market today.  It's the exact opposite.  The stock market could not be any less speculative.  The federal government has made it consistently clear through its actions that it will bail out the rich at any cost to the country.  Plague, civil unrest, economic depression -- fark the country; they will throw everything they have at protecting the stock market over any other priority.  With that level of brazen dedication, it's actually a darn safe move to put your money there.  If anything, it could be the safest investment in the world right now, so why wouldn't it be up?  The real economic impact of the pandemic is inconsequential to the stock market if the government response was to protect the latter from the former.

The health of the stock market has nothing to do with what's going on out there, because the health of the stock market has literally nothing to do with what's going on out there.  It's not so much a casino as it is analogous to a mammoth trust fund for the rentier class that's got a giant pump and hose connecting it to the U.S. Treasury.


WeWork.  Shut up.
 
2020-06-05 1:15:50 PM  

thornhill: FarkaDark: And somehow the overall housing market is unaffected, even robust in some places. I swear every morning I have to convince myself I did not wake up in an alternate reality

Do you really think that many restaurant and retail workers earn enough to own homes?


And the people who own restaurants and shops. I know of lawyers who wait tables because they make just as much if not more money and dive have to work 80+ hours a week to become a partner.
Also for many people it is a second household income. Kind of like how that extra $40k may pay the vacation braces
 
2020-06-05 1:15:59 PM  

imaconnect4guy: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/new​-​jobless-claims-climb-188-million-at-en​d-of-may-2020-06-04

Over 15 million new jobless claims in May and we somehow added 2.5 million jobs overall?  How is that even possible?


The number of continuing jobless claims dropped.

Also, the number of people claiming unemployment insurance and the number of people unemployed (in the unemployment rate) are not directly connected.  It is possible to be unemployed and not eligible for unemployment insurance.
 
2020-06-05 3:12:57 PM  

FarkaDark: thornhill: FarkaDark: And somehow the overall housing market is unaffected, even robust in some places. I swear every morning I have to convince myself I did not wake up in an alternate reality

Do you really think that many restaurant and retail workers earn enough to own homes?

And the people who own restaurants and shops. I know of lawyers who wait tables because they make just as much if not more money and dive have to work 80+ hours a week to become a partner.
Also for many people it is a second household income. Kind of like how that extra $40k may pay the vacation braces


Right.

Like I said in a previous post, people should consider that maybe the market isn't all that off because the unemployed have so little capital - it's a reflection of the shrinking middle class and growing income inequality.
 
2020-06-05 4:05:52 PM  

hugram: Total Job Numbers During Obama's Last 40 Months
8,812,000

Total Job Numbers During Trump's First 40 Months
-12,715,000

Source for job number


Well, perhaps things would've been different had Republicans shutdown the country for a fiscal quarter during the Swine Flu pandemic.  And then, just so we're comparing apples to apples, let's move the Ferguson riots to that same timeframe, and everyone can come out and rage against the machine, after health officials declare it's more important to go out and protest than it is to stay in and flatten the curve.
 
2020-06-05 4:40:34 PM  

Prussian_Roulette: hugram: Total Job Numbers During Obama's Last 40 Months
8,812,000

Total Job Numbers During Trump's First 40 Months
-12,715,000

Source for job number

Well, perhaps things would've been different had Republicans shutdown the country for a fiscal quarter during the Swine Flu pandemic.  And then, just so we're comparing apples to apples, let's move the Ferguson riots to that same timeframe, and everyone can come out and rage against the machine, after health officials declare it's more important to go out and protest than it is to stay in and flatten the curve.


Trump is also behind if you don't include the Covid months...

Total Job Numbers During Obama's Last 37 Months
8,254,000

Total Job Numbers During Trump's First 37 Months
6,836,000
 
2020-06-05 5:09:04 PM  

Nadie_AZ: Sajuuk Khar: QFarker: Somewhere between 13% and 14%.

13.3%, gain of 2.5 million jobs in May.

I just saw this. What is going on?

I doubt this.


How is this hard to understand?  A HUGE number of the people who went on unemployment were restaurant and retail workers who were temporarily cut because stores were shuttered.  With them starting to reopen, there's several million of them that were recalled back to work and are no longer on unemployment.  That counts as "job creation" under their math.

That was the whole goal of this "grand reopening".  To get as many people off unemployment as possible.  Now, a ton of the restaurants and retail locations will be shrinking in the coming months as they go out of business because only a fraction of the revenue will be coming in.  But for now, many have been "brought back" into the workforce.  Apparently a net of roughly 2.5M.
 
2020-06-05 6:50:37 PM  

Khellendros: How is this hard to understand? A HUGE number of the people who went on unemployment were restaurant and retail workers who were temporarily cut because stores were shuttered. With them starting to reopen, there's several million of them that were recalled back to work and are no longer on unemployment. That counts as "job creation" under their math.
That was the whole goal of this "grand reopening". To get as many people off unemployment as possible. Now, a ton of the restaurants and retail locations will be shrinking in the coming months as they go out of business because only a fraction of the revenue will be coming in. But for now, many have been "brought back" into the workforce. Apparently a net of roughly 2.5M.


So if we lost 40 million jobs, at least temporarily, and then gained back 2.5 million, Trump added 2.5 million jobs now, as well as overseeing the best economy in history already, and is now President for life.
That's what you're trying to say, isn't it? Don't sugarcoat it.
 
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