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(CNBC)   Maybe it's because people who play the market don't typically die from coronovirus?   (cnbc.com) divider line
    More: Strange, Stock market, Stock market index, Stock, Dow Jones & Company, The Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Retailing, Bank of America  
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753 clicks; posted to Business » on 27 May 2020 at 7:41 PM (5 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2020-05-27 6:30:17 PM  
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S T O N K S

 
2020-05-27 9:12:21 PM  
At this point it is just obscene.
 
2020-05-27 10:08:19 PM  
A few months ago, my accounts were down nearly $40k.  I wasn't really sweating it then, because I had still lost less than I had put in overall, and I felt that the gains over the last few years were a bit screwy and should be taken with a grain of salt.  shiat, over 15k of that was just  gains in 2019. I made as much as a full time, minimum wage job by doing... nothing.

I definitely did NOT expect them to come roaring back.  At this point, I'm taking it with a grain of salt again, and pulled back on my "buy into more while it's cheap" strategy.  I suspect this is driven by middle class investors: still getting paid, not spending money traveling, not spending money on gas, not doing much... toss in insurance rebates, stimulus checks, rock bottom savings yields, and longing for just one more 2009 to ride the wave up, and you've got the perfect storm of money flowing into stocks.

(And no, I'm not some richy-rich.  Just a pretty normal middle class dude with a few degrees and a comfortable suburban life. A while back, I had the typical basic white dude urge to buy a mustang, and started calculating out what I'd be willing to pay for it.  Once I figured it up, I put the DP into some mutual sand started paying the payment into the fund each month, because if I was dumb enough to throw away money on a Mustang GT, an asset guaranteed to depreciate, I'd surely not care about losing it in the market.  since then, every time I get a raise, I put the extra into my IRA, mutual, and ETFs.)
 
2020-05-27 10:52:30 PM  

Izunbacol: I made as much as a full time, minimum wage job by doing... nothing.


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The thing that always struck me as odd about the people who decry the gambling aspect of the stonk market is that most of their arguments are prefaced upon the (well-documented, supported by evidence, and generally regarded as true) observation that stonks keep going up because having stonks go up is in the interests of the 1%. (or rather, the 0.01% at the top of the wealth pyramid.)

And I get their point; yeah, frankly it is at least a little unjust.

But whether it's just or unjust, it is.

The frustrating thing is that most of the growth in new/startup/small cap companies are sequestered away by VCs (you could have bought Microsoft and Apple in the 1980s when it wasn't clear whether "personal computers" would ever be a thing; you could even have bought Amazon in the late-90s when it wasn't clear whether "selling shiat over the internet" would ever be a thing -- but you could not have bought Uber until it went public at an $75B valuation.

But even with that handicap - not being able to buy UBER or LYFT when they were just jitney cab operators with a phone app - you would still have made a comparative farkton of money just buying the S&P 500 index.

Stonk markets were, are, and will continue to be for some time, the only type of casino where the House's interests are generally aligned with those of the gamblers.
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Let's play a game where you're right 52% of the time. Not much more than being on the side of the House while playing roulette, or being a really good card counter at Blackjack in a hypothetical casino where they never kick you out for winning too often. How much ought one to bet per spin of the wheel or per hand dealt?

Understand the size of the bets you're taking, make enough small bets to figure out how often you win or lose, and how much you win or lose per bet, and limit the size of the bets per the Kelly Criterion so as to reduce the risk of ruin to a level commensurate with being able to sleep at night, and it doesn't matter whether you're playing poker or stonks, because they're literally the same game.
 
2020-05-27 11:42:06 PM  
Maybe because the economy is better than we think it is, and just getting better as things are reopening?
 
2020-05-28 1:21:31 AM  

kdawg7736: Maybe because the economy is better than we think it is, and just getting better as things are reopening?


30+ million unemployed does not equal a strong economy. It's a f*cking Potemkin Village.
 
2020-05-28 2:15:32 AM  
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2020-05-28 8:00:43 AM  

DecemberNitro: kdawg7736: Maybe because the economy is better than we think it is, and just getting better as things are reopening?

30+ million unemployed does not equal a strong economy. It's a f*cking Potemkin Village.


We don't know how many will remain unemployed though.  That number includes both the conventionally unemployed (I.e. laid off) and those whose jobs are on ice until the reopening.  Depending on the narrative a person wants to push, Those 30+ million are deemed to be fully in one category or the other.
 
2020-05-28 8:10:47 AM  

DecemberNitro: kdawg7736: Maybe because the economy is better than we think it is, and just getting better as things are reopening?

30+ million unemployed does not equal a strong economy. It's a f*cking Potemkin Village.


I also see that some people are making more in unemployment than they are when they were working.

Link

I mean, the extra money in jobless benefits is nice for those people but don't make it a deterrent to returning to work. I would have liked to see the $2,000 a month that was once proposed but the big drawback is some people would make more money there and not want to go to work, at least right away when that deal expires.
 
2020-05-28 12:26:16 PM  
"Just a pretty normal middle class dude with a few degrees and a comfortable suburban life"

You're rich and lucky. Don't think otherwise.

Back to topic. Stonks are valued for the future assuming we have a vaccine. When Moderna fails to deliver a correction will happen.
 
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