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(The New York Times)   Will the hot weather kill Coronavirus?   (nytimes.com) divider line
    More: Unlikely, Climate, Meteorology, Infection, Weather, Atmospheric pressure, Virus, Sun, Rain  
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2145 clicks; posted to Main » and Politics » on 22 May 2020 at 8:25 AM (8 days ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2020-05-21 10:32:07 PM  
Central America says no
 
2020-05-21 10:41:06 PM  
Statistically:
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-05-21 11:43:18 PM  
pics.me.meView Full Size
 
2020-05-22 12:06:01 AM  

Ivo Shandor: Statistically:
[Fark user image image 300x169]


I had a funny response ready to go, but I can't beat this one.
 
2020-05-22 2:06:27 AM  
It will stop when around 60-80% of the country has had it. The cat is out of the bag. Without a MASSIVE country-wide testing and contact tracing program, we will never figure out who could have it and track them down. And many states are loathe to do even that because of what it would reveal. Look at Florida where they are firing people for not tampering with the incoming data.

Given who is in charge, and the timeframe in which he will be in charge, containment is a pipe dream.
 
2020-05-22 2:25:33 AM  

bdub77: It will stop when around 60-80% of the country has had it. The cat is out of the bag. Without a MASSIVE country-wide testing and contact tracing program, we will never figure out who could have it and track them down. And many states are loathe to do even that because of what it would reveal. Look at Florida where they are firing people for not tampering with the incoming data.

Given who is in charge, and the timeframe in which he will be in charge, containment is a pipe dream.


Yeah, we are truly and well farked.
 
2020-05-22 2:41:10 AM  

bdub77: It will stop when around 60-80% of the country has had it. The cat is out of the bag. Without a MASSIVE country-wide testing and contact tracing program, we will never figure out who could have it and track them down. And many states are loathe to do even that because of what it would reveal. Look at Florida where they are firing people for not tampering with the incoming data.

Given who is in charge, and the timeframe in which he will be in charge, containment is a pipe dream.


It depends on how long immunity lasts. If you lose immunity after six months to a year, or if it starts splintering into strains with different antigens, then it never "goes away", it just rolls back and forth from the general population into isolated reservoir populations and back like every other endemic disease.

And then maybe we get into a situation where people who have been through it get it worse the second time, particularly if they've suffered lung scarring -- and it seems that people don't *notice* the lung damage unless it's bad enough to put you on death's door, because it doesn't stiffen the lung enough to prevent exhaling CO2 and the body notices "I have too much CO2" rather than "I don't have enough O2" to trigger the feeling of breathlessness. So perhaps Round 2 is just that bit deadlier than Round 1. And we keep playing Russian Roulette with it, every six months to a year, with another bullet loaded in the chamber each time we catch it.

And maybe there isn't a vaccine that actually works, or which works only about as well as the flu vaccine does. We don't have a vaccine for any other coronavirus, and while early testing is promising, there's a wide gap between promising and successful, and there's still the question of how long immunity actually lasts.

(Or maybe everything will be fine! But the point is maybe it won't, too.)

What I'm trying to say is that it can get worse. It can pretty much always get worse. And that's not to just catastrophise pointlessly, but rather to say "Oh well, fixing it would be really hard at this point so guess there's no point trying, might as well just let it take its course" is a bad way to approach a problem.

It's like someone who has gotten themselves $10,000 in credit card debt saying "oh well, I'm screwed anyway, paying it off is a pipe dream, might as well apply for a few more credit cards to help me pay my mortgage." Well, no, it might feel like you're in the worst case scenario, but you can actually get a lot worse and it's always worth trying to claw your way back up, because when you're $20k in debt you'll look back at that $10k as a lost opportunity, and when you lose you're house you'll look back at that $20k as a missed opportunity, etc.

So this is too many words to say, like, this way of thinking is very understandable but also kind of scary, because it's a justification for inaction that appeals to people who support action, and we are by no means in a situation where action is pointless. Until the last human is dead, we are never going to be in a situation where action is pointless.
 
2020-05-22 2:47:04 AM  
The virus appears to do quite well in hot weather, it has been in the mid to upper 80s and 90s in Florida over the past week and their infections seem to be increasing. "Seem" because their governor and his crew are deliberately obscuring and avoiding the whole Coronavirus issue as much as possible so it's hard to find verifiable info. Remember, this is the governor who encouraged the spring breakers to enjoy the beaches and discouraged the snowbirds from leaving early.
Lovely people.
 
2020-05-22 2:54:32 AM  

pkjun: So this is too many words to say, like, this way of thinking is very understandable but also kind of scary, because it's a justification for inaction that appeals to people who support action, and we are by no means in a situation where action is pointless. Until the last human is dead, we are never going to be in a situation where action is pointless.


I think you misunderstand my general fatalism on this issue as some sort of 'let's give up'. We should take action, of course we should take action. And many local and state governments are taking action and will continue to do so. But collectively, as an American society? I don't think it will happen. And that will in fact be catastrophic, both for those who do act and those who do not.

I'm the same guy who said we should impeach this motherfarker even though we all knew what the outcome would be.
 
2020-05-22 3:06:51 AM  

bdub77: pkjun: So this is too many words to say, like, this way of thinking is very understandable but also kind of scary, because it's a justification for inaction that appeals to people who support action, and we are by no means in a situation where action is pointless. Until the last human is dead, we are never going to be in a situation where action is pointless.

I think you misunderstand my general fatalism on this issue as some sort of 'let's give up'. We should take action, of course we should take action. And many local and state governments are taking action and will continue to do so. But collectively, as an American society? I don't think it will happen. And that will in fact be catastrophic, both for those who do act and those who do not.

I'm the same guy who said we should impeach this motherfarker even though we all knew what the outcome would be.


I get your perspective I think, but I mean like the literal dictionary definition of fatalism is "resignation in the face of events thought to be inevitable."

So I think fatalism is implicitly arguing for inaction, even if you'd prefer action and even if you wish the thing you think is inevitable isn't. And while I agree that some sort of Bad Ending is inevitable, I think we still have a lot of control over how Bad that ending is. There's a lot of Bad left to either sink into or avoid, even if it feels inconceivable that so much Bad exists as a possibility.

(I mean, I'm reminded of the people saying "well how bad could it get really" regarding Trump in 2016 -- and all the people who have said "wow, this must be the bottom, this must be as bad as it gets" like every two weeks since. It can always get worse, and we've always got something left to lose.)
 
2020-05-22 4:07:08 AM  

bdub77: It will stop when around 60-80% of the country has had it. The cat is out of the bag. Without a MASSIVE country-wide testing and contact tracing program, we will never figure out who could have it and track them down. And many states are loathe to do even that because of what it would reveal. Look at Florida where they are firing people for not tampering with the incoming data.

Given who is in charge, and the timeframe in which he will be in charge, containment is a pipe dream.


There is no historical precedent for herd immunity outside the context of a vaccine. Over 90% of humans have herpes by the time they die, for example, and guess what wiped out smallpox. Not herd immunity.
 
2020-05-22 5:49:15 AM  
Trump said it, so: no.
 
2020-05-22 5:55:56 AM  

koder: bdub77: It will stop when around 60-80% of the country has had it. The cat is out of the bag. Without a MASSIVE country-wide testing and contact tracing program, we will never figure out who could have it and track them down. And many states are loathe to do even that because of what it would reveal. Look at Florida where they are firing people for not tampering with the incoming data.

Given who is in charge, and the timeframe in which he will be in charge, containment is a pipe dream.

There is no historical precedent for herd immunity outside the context of a vaccine. Over 90% of humans have herpes by the time they die, for example, and guess what wiped out smallpox. Not herd immunity.


Chicken pox.

Remember that the objective of herd immunity is "control", not "eradication".
 
2020-05-22 6:22:46 AM  
If hot weather will kill the virus the Anti-Maskers will demand to nuke the Yellowstone Volcano so it erupts and ash blocks the sun, and Trump will probably do it (unless he's given Yellowstone to turn into a golf resort).
 
2020-05-22 7:18:09 AM  

qorkfiend: koder: bdub77: It will stop when around 60-80% of the country has had it. The cat is out of the bag. Without a MASSIVE country-wide testing and contact tracing program, we will never figure out who could have it and track them down. And many states are loathe to do even that because of what it would reveal. Look at Florida where they are firing people for not tampering with the incoming data.

Given who is in charge, and the timeframe in which he will be in charge, containment is a pipe dream.

There is no historical precedent for herd immunity outside the context of a vaccine. Over 90% of humans have herpes by the time they die, for example, and guess what wiped out smallpox. Not herd immunity.

Chicken pox.

Remember that the objective of herd immunity is "control", not "eradication".


It's not herd immunity when almost every child gets it / has their parents throw them a pox party to intentionally give it to them. That's just giving it to everyone before they grow up, and we already know how dangerous this can be to some kids. Chicken pox now has a vaccine, and we're now talking about actual herd immunity to it because of the vaccine.
 
2020-05-22 8:16:28 AM  
It could happen. We will find out.
 
2020-05-22 8:26:44 AM  
You'll have to wait until winter to drown in your own lungs. Victory is at hand!
 
2020-05-22 8:28:41 AM  
Damn you, Betteridge.
 
2020-05-22 8:31:32 AM  

pkjun: bdub77: It will stop when around 60-80% of the country has had it. The cat is out of the bag. Without a MASSIVE country-wide testing and contact tracing program, we will never figure out who could have it and track them down. And many states are loathe to do even that because of what it would reveal. Look at Florida where they are firing people for not tampering with the incoming data.

Given who is in charge, and the timeframe in which he will be in charge, containment is a pipe dream.

It depends on how long immunity lasts. If you lose immunity after six months to a year, or if it starts splintering into strains with different antigens, then it never "goes away", it just rolls back and forth from the general population into isolated reservoir populations and back like every other endemic disease.

And then maybe we get into a situation where people who have been through it get it worse the second time, particularly if they've suffered lung scarring -- and it seems that people don't *notice* the lung damage unless it's bad enough to put you on death's door, because it doesn't stiffen the lung enough to prevent exhaling CO2 and the body notices "I have too much CO2" rather than "I don't have enough O2" to trigger the feeling of breathlessness. So perhaps Round 2 is just that bit deadlier than Round 1. And we keep playing Russian Roulette with it, every six months to a year, with another bullet loaded in the chamber each time we catch it.

And maybe there isn't a vaccine that actually works, or which works only about as well as the flu vaccine does. We don't have a vaccine for any other coronavirus, and while early testing is promising, there's a wide gap between promising and successful, and there's still the question of how long immunity actually lasts.

(Or maybe everything will be fine! But the point is maybe it won't, too.)

What I'm trying to say is that it can get worse. It can pretty much always get worse. And that's not to just catastrophise pointlessly, but rather to say "Oh well, fixing it would be really hard at this point so guess there's no point trying, might as well just let it take its course" is a bad way to approach a problem.

It's like someone who has gotten themselves $10,000 in credit card debt saying "oh well, I'm screwed anyway, paying it off is a pipe dream, might as well apply for a few more credit cards to help me pay my mortgage." Well, no, it might feel like you're in the worst case scenario, but you can actually get a lot worse and it's always worth trying to claw your way back up, because when you're $20k in debt you'll look back at that $10k as a lost opportunity, and when you lose you're house you'll look back at that $20k as a missed opportunity, etc.

So this is too many words to say, like, this way of thinking is very understandable but also kind of scary, because it's a justification for inaction that appeals to people who support action, and we are by no means in a situation where action is pointless. Until the last human is dead, we are never going to be in a situation where action is pointless.


Sheet
Now I have the major sads as I go to work
 
2020-05-22 8:32:28 AM  
It's not the heat, it's the humidity coupled with herd immunity that impede the spread of cold and flu viruses in summer, and we won't have herd immunity for years.
 
2020-05-22 8:33:31 AM  
No, this virus has gone full postal on the human race, I.E.

"Neither snow nor rain nor heat nor gloom of night stays these couriers from the swift completion of their appointed rounds"
 
2020-05-22 8:33:43 AM  
Brazil.

That is all.
 
2020-05-22 8:35:55 AM  
Also it may not kill it but slow it down at least.
 
2020-05-22 8:37:49 AM  

bdub77: It will stop when around 60-80% of the country has had it. The cat is out of the bag. Without a MASSIVE country-wide testing and contact tracing program, we will never figure out who could have it and track them down. And many states are loathe to do even that because of what it would reveal. Look at Florida where they are firing people for not tampering with the incoming data.

Given who is in charge, and the timeframe in which he will be in charge, containment is a pipe dream.


That would only work if we sealed our borders, otherwise you'd have to test every single person entering the country, and isolate whole plane until everyone tested negative. If one positive, the whole plane would have to go into isolation.

The cat is out of the bag indeed. So many people would need to be quarantined, you might as well just impose state wide lockdowns because it would be cheaper, more efficient, and more effective.
 
2020-05-22 8:38:21 AM  
Nothing is as it was so why should we expect this virus to behave? Also, it has been spreading fine recently and it's not winter anywhere anybody lives right now.
 
2020-05-22 8:39:36 AM  
If only there were places on Earth where it was hot so they could study this.
 
2020-05-22 8:40:30 AM  
Questions  in the headline are always answered in the negative.
 
2020-05-22 8:42:24 AM  
It might bring the rate of infection from 6 to 4 or something like that (assuming no social distancing), but we spend too much time in air conditioning and after dark for the heat by itself to stop the pandemic.
 
2020-05-22 8:43:51 AM  

kdawg7736: It could happen. We will find out.


No.
If hot weather killed it you wouldn't have transmission in hot regions.

Additionally: hot weather doesn't mean shiat in contained environments.  Its my biggest personal pet peeve about this subject.  Here are the facts:
1)  At higher humidity the virus is in fact less stable
2)  At greater temperatures, the virus is less stable
3)  UV from sunlight will inactivate the virus given enough time.

None of these mean transmission is impossible when outside.  It simply means transmission is less likely outside than inside because the virus is less stable when exposed to these conditions.

But lets break that down into actual practical information.  The greatest risk of transmission to people isn't walking down the street, or being outside, and never has been.  It's being in contained spaces with numerous people.  In other words: the change in season will not result in major changes in infection dynamics.  And if it does so enough to breach statistical significance it will be very minor in practical importance.  Subways, church's, work places, stores, airplanes, restaurants, etc.  These are the places people get sick: climate controlled, contained spaces with lots of foot traffic (or with airplanes a relatively long duration captive audience breathing recirculated air).

The outside temperature and humidity doesn't matter when 90% of buildings are climate controlled.
TLDR: No, hot weather will not kill the virus.  And if it did, it wouldn't farking matter anyway because inside is where most infections happen.
 
2020-05-22 8:46:43 AM  

FarkaDark: pkjun: bdub77: It will stop when around 60-80% of the country has had it. The cat is out of the bag. Without a MASSIVE country-wide testing and contact tracing program, we will never figure out who could have it and track them down. And many states are loathe to do even that because of what it would reveal. Look at Florida where they are firing people for not tampering with the incoming data.

Given who is in charge, and the timeframe in which he will be in charge, containment is a pipe dream.

It depends on how long immunity lasts. If you lose immunity after six months to a year, or if it starts splintering into strains with different antigens, then it never "goes away", it just rolls back and forth from the general population into isolated reservoir populations and back like every other endemic disease.

And then maybe we get into a situation where people who have been through it get it worse the second time, particularly if they've suffered lung scarring -- and it seems that people don't *notice* the lung damage unless it's bad enough to put you on death's door, because it doesn't stiffen the lung enough to prevent exhaling CO2 and the body notices "I have too much CO2" rather than "I don't have enough O2" to trigger the feeling of breathlessness. So perhaps Round 2 is just that bit deadlier than Round 1. And we keep playing Russian Roulette with it, every six months to a year, with another bullet loaded in the chamber each time we catch it.

And maybe there isn't a vaccine that actually works, or which works only about as well as the flu vaccine does. We don't have a vaccine for any other coronavirus, and while early testing is promising, there's a wide gap between promising and successful, and there's still the question of how long immunity actually lasts.

(Or maybe everything will be fine! But the point is maybe it won't, too.)

What I'm trying to say is that it can get worse. It can pretty much always get worse. And that's not to just catastrophise pointless ...


Here's some good news:  https://www.healthline.com/hea​lth-news​/what-to-know-about-mutation-and-covid​-19

The bottom line
The new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has already mutated a handful of times, which has many people wondering whether the mutations could lead to a more severe, deadlier disease.
According to experts, the new mutations are extremely similar to the original virus that appeared in Wuhan, China, and don't seem to be any more aggressive.
Because the mutations are so similar, a vaccine would likely protect people against not only the original strain but new mutations as well.


I'm hanging my hat on this for now.  Hope it holds true.
 
2020-05-22 8:47:18 AM  
Let's ask Hawaii.Or Arizona.
 
2020-05-22 8:47:49 AM  
SARS died out around July of its year, and it's closely related to Covid-19, so for once the hopes aren't completely irrational.

On the other hand, "related to" doesn't mean "identical to", so there is also reason for skepticism. Even discounting that, there's the fact that Covid-19 has made it into climates that SARS never did. I'm not even sure it's really clear that the heat is what killed SARS; that may have been due to some other factor, which may or may not apply here.

End result: I'm not seeing much reason for optimism, despite the relationship.
 
2020-05-22 8:55:05 AM  

Millennium: SARS died out around July of its year, and it's closely related to Covid-19, so for once the hopes aren't completely irrational.

On the other hand, "related to" doesn't mean "identical to", so there is also reason for skepticism. Even discounting that, there's the fact that Covid-19 has made it into climates that SARS never did. I'm not even sure it's really clear that the heat is what killed SARS; that may have been due to some other factor, which may or may not apply here.

End result: I'm not seeing much reason for optimism, despite the relationship.


The original SARS (because this is related) was less contagious and it didn't appear to have asymptomatic transmission.  It was able to be isolated and left to die out.  That's the difference.
 
2020-05-22 8:56:12 AM  
heat kills it just fine. just needs to be above 130 Degrees F.
 
2020-05-22 8:58:35 AM  

bdub77: It will stop when around 60-80% of the country has had it. The cat is out of the bag. Without a MASSIVE country-wide testing and contact tracing program, we will never figure out who could have it and track them down. And many states are loathe to do even that because of what it would reveal. Look at Florida where they are firing people for not tampering with the incoming data.

Given who is in charge, and the timeframe in which he will be in charge, containment is a pipe dream.


If that's true, given that NYC has seen somewhere between 0.2 and 0.25% of their population die from Covid-19, a best case scenario would be 60% of the country getting it and 0.2% of them dying from it, which would mean about 4 million dead Americans, 40 times what we have now.

I really hope that doesn't turn out to be true.
 
2020-05-22 8:59:03 AM  
Even if the answer was yes, everybody crowding open beaches this weekend is still an incredibly stupid idea.
 
2020-05-22 8:59:25 AM  

qorkfiend: koder: bdub77: It will stop when around 60-80% of the country has had it. The cat is out of the bag. Without a MASSIVE country-wide testing and contact tracing program, we will never figure out who could have it and track them down. And many states are loathe to do even that because of what it would reveal. Look at Florida where they are firing people for not tampering with the incoming data.

Given who is in charge, and the timeframe in which he will be in charge, containment is a pipe dream.

There is no historical precedent for herd immunity outside the context of a vaccine. Over 90% of humans have herpes by the time they die, for example, and guess what wiped out smallpox. Not herd immunity.

Chicken pox.

Remember that the objective of herd immunity is "control", not "eradication".


1918 Flu, Black Plague, etc... as well. The 'no herd immunity without vaccine' people are misinfromed.
 
2020-05-22 8:59:26 AM  

DarwiOdrade: Brazil.

That is all.


Your personal hygiene is none of our business.
 
2020-05-22 9:01:17 AM  

Millennium: SARS died out around July of its year, and it's closely related to Covid-19, so for once the hopes aren't completely irrational.

On the other hand, "related to" doesn't mean "identical to", so there is also reason for skepticism. Even discounting that, there's the fact that Covid-19 has made it into climates that SARS never did. I'm not even sure it's really clear that the heat is what killed SARS; that may have been due to some other factor, which may or may not apply here.

End result: I'm not seeing much reason for optimism, despite the relationship.


Also, more people tested positive yesterday between 10am and 2pm than were ever infected with SARS.
 
2020-05-22 9:02:43 AM  

Rapmaster2000: FarkaDark: pkjun: bdub77: It will stop when around 60-80% of the country has had it. The cat is out of the bag. Without a MASSIVE country-wide testing and contact tracing program, we will never figure out who could have it and track them down. And many states are loathe to do even that because of what it would reveal. Look at Florida where they are firing people for not tampering with the incoming data.

Given who is in charge, and the timeframe in which he will be in charge, containment is a pipe dream.

It depends on how long immunity lasts. If you lose immunity after six months to a year, or if it starts splintering into strains with different antigens, then it never "goes away", it just rolls back and forth from the general population into isolated reservoir populations and back like every other endemic disease.

And then maybe we get into a situation where people who have been through it get it worse the second time, particularly if they've suffered lung scarring -- and it seems that people don't *notice* the lung damage unless it's bad enough to put you on death's door, because it doesn't stiffen the lung enough to prevent exhaling CO2 and the body notices "I have too much CO2" rather than "I don't have enough O2" to trigger the feeling of breathlessness. So perhaps Round 2 is just that bit deadlier than Round 1. And we keep playing Russian Roulette with it, every six months to a year, with another bullet loaded in the chamber each time we catch it.

And maybe there isn't a vaccine that actually works, or which works only about as well as the flu vaccine does. We don't have a vaccine for any other coronavirus, and while early testing is promising, there's a wide gap between promising and successful, and there's still the question of how long immunity actually lasts.

(Or maybe everything will be fine! But the point is maybe it won't, too.)

What I'm trying to say is that it can get worse. It can pretty much always get worse. And that's not to just catastrophise pointless ...

Here's some good news:  https://www.healthline.com/heal​th-news/what-to-know-about-mutation-an​d-covid-19

The bottom line
The new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has already mutated a handful of times, which has many people wondering whether the mutations could lead to a more severe, deadlier disease.
According to experts, the new mutations are extremely similar to the original virus that appeared in Wuhan, China, and don't seem to be any more aggressive.
Because the mutations are so similar, a vaccine would likely protect people against not only the original strain but new mutations as well.

I'm hanging my hat on this for now.  Hope it holds true.


Most virus mutations tend toward making things milder, not worse. The more deadly a mutation that a virus gets the harder it becomes for the host to survive and spread it.
 
2020-05-22 9:03:21 AM  
Then you also have the vitamin d variable. A lot of people are vitamin d deficient - especially in the Northern states, and those with darker skin. A vitamin d deficiency seems to be related to a degraded immune system.

There's a reason why the cold and flu season begins in late fall and lasts through the winter in the northern hemisphere. It could partially be due to heat and/or humidity, but it's likely there's a vitamin d connection as well.

Just pieces in the complex puzzle though.
 
2020-05-22 9:05:36 AM  
And then there's this little fact of life.

https://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2020/​0​5/19/air-conditioning-coronavirus

So yeah, I wouldn't count on hot weather being much of a solution.
 
2020-05-22 9:06:46 AM  

meanmutton: bdub77: It will stop when around 60-80% of the country has had it. The cat is out of the bag. Without a MASSIVE country-wide testing and contact tracing program, we will never figure out who could have it and track them down. And many states are loathe to do even that because of what it would reveal. Look at Florida where they are firing people for not tampering with the incoming data.

Given who is in charge, and the timeframe in which he will be in charge, containment is a pipe dream.

If that's true, given that NYC has seen somewhere between 0.2 and 0.25% of their population die from Covid-19, a best case scenario would be 60% of the country getting it and 0.2% of them dying from it, which would mean about 4 million dead Americans, 40 times what we have now.

I really hope that doesn't turn out to be true.


I think that's a bit off.  330,000,000*.6 = 198,000,000*.002 = 396,000.

My concern is that if you look at NYC antibody studies and total deaths, the death rate works out to be 0.66%.
 
2020-05-22 9:09:34 AM  

Millennium: SARS died out around July of its year, and it's closely related to Covid-19, so for once the hopes aren't completely irrational.

On the other hand, "related to" doesn't mean "identical to", so there is also reason for skepticism. Even discounting that, there's the fact that Covid-19 has made it into climates that SARS never did. I'm not even sure it's really clear that the heat is what killed SARS; that may have been due to some other factor, which may or may not apply here.

End result: I'm not seeing much reason for optimism, despite the relationship.


You're exactly right- guessing it's behavior based on what is known about other respiratory viruses is just that, guessing. (and hoping)
Extrapolating behaviors is one way that researchers theorize a novel disease's pathology in order to try similar treatments, but a theory is not a conclusion.
I feel the same way about researcher's early papers being used by others (media) to make premature claims, it is too early in the study to give the public false hope.
 
2020-05-22 9:11:47 AM  

bdub77: Look at Florida where they are firing people for not tampering with the incoming data.


No.  That woman was a nutjob, who did not have any control or dealings with data, who had no degree or experience in data, and who has multiple injunctions entered against her for stalking.  You are repeating fake news.
 
2020-05-22 9:24:45 AM  

RussianPotato: bdub77: Look at Florida where they are firing people for not tampering with the incoming data.

No.  That woman was a nutjob, who did not have any control or dealings with data, who had no degree or experience in data, and who has multiple injunctions entered against her for stalking.  You are repeating fake news.


Dealings with data.
 
2020-05-22 9:26:55 AM  

Jackal_N: The virus appears to do quite well in hot weather, it has been in the mid to upper 80s and 90s in Florida over the past week and their infections seem to be increasing. "Seem" because their governor and his crew are deliberately obscuring and avoiding the whole Coronavirus issue as much as possible so it's hard to find verifiable info. Remember, this is the governor who encouraged the spring breakers to enjoy the beaches and discouraged the snowbirds from leaving early.
Lovely people.


It has been in the 80's since this whole thing started. Even if hurrr durrr muh sunlight is effective at killing the virus outside the body, people still, you know go inside a lot when it's 80+ degrees out.
 
2020-05-22 9:31:07 AM  

bdub77: It will stop when around 60-80% of the country has had it. The cat is out of the bag. Without a MASSIVE country-wide testing and contact tracing program, we will never figure out who could have it and track them down. And many states are loathe to do even that because of what it would reveal. Look at Florida where they are firing people for not tampering with the incoming data.

Given who is in charge, and the timeframe in which he will be in charge, containment is a pipe dream.


They have tracking in Australia. It seems to work.
 
2020-05-22 9:31:32 AM  
Let's go over to India where itis currently 96 degrees and see how they're doi- oh.
 
2020-05-22 9:32:37 AM  

SanityIsAFullTimeJob: Then you also have the vitamin d variable. A lot of people are vitamin d deficient - especially in the Northern states, and those with darker skin. A vitamin d deficiency seems to be related to a degraded immune system.

There's a reason why the cold and flu season begins in late fall and lasts through the winter in the northern hemisphere. It could partially be due to heat and/or humidity, but it's likely there's a vitamin d connection as well.

Just pieces in the complex puzzle though.


Higher temperatures mean more people are outside where its hard for the virus to survive. When people are huddled in small spaces then its easy for this thing to be transmitted through the air.

I think that's why we've seen it raging on cruise ships despite the warmer weather they choose to sail in, because they've got air conditioning systems and tight quarters that make good contamination conditions.  You'd have a similar problem in apartments depending on how the AC runs. Stay home meant fewer people were interacting with strangers, but if one resident gets it then all the others could be exposed.
This is why one of the important strategies is isolating old age homes.  Warm or not you've got alot of potential victims, with a high chance of morbidity, interacting in a relatively small space.

Cultural practices can also be a factor because if a society lives close together or tends to hug and kiss more often (looking at you, Italy) then the virus can still transmit despite the weather.
Brazil might be in warmer weather, but culturally and living condition wise most of its people are packed in to tight quarters. I've never been there, but I suspect its the kind of place where the elderly are not isolated.
The virus might have a harder time surviving outside, but people aren't doing social distancing in this situation.

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