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(Forbes)   U Chicago study finds that 16M of the jobs lost over the past two months aren't coming back   (forbes.com) divider line
    More: Scary, Unemployment, Economics, permanent job losses, recent layoffs, University of Chicago estimates, new hires, result of the job, Jose Maria Barrero  
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611 clicks; posted to Business » and Main » on 20 May 2020 at 11:23 AM (7 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2020-05-20 10:23:21 AM  
That's a bit overly dramatic.  They aren't permanent job losses in the sense that those who lost jobs will never get another.  Lots of places will go out of business or they will simply survive by keeping fewer staff, which will result in a lot of people losing those positions, but inevitably there will be new businesses to take the place of the ones that shut their doors, and they're going to need staff. Yes, there will likely be an absolute shiatload of people who can't get work for quite some time because of this, and that absolutely sucks 31 flavours of ass, but it's not "permanent."

The economy, and lost jobs, are going to take some time to recover, and that's going to put a huge strain on a large percentage of the population, not to mention government assistance for probably at least the next year, likely longer -- none of this is going to just snap back to any degree of normal.  But eventually things will approach a level of normal, even if it's a new normal, and jobs will return.  Almost certainly not under Trump, to be certain, but as long as he's shoved forcefully out of the White House, recovery will happen.

Until then though, yes, things are going to suck painfully hard for a great many people.
 
2020-05-20 10:47:21 AM  

Psychopusher: But eventually things will approach a level of normal, even if it's a new normal, and jobs will return.


This is a pretty roundabout way of saying society will collapse and that we will go back to living in the trees, but I'm okay with it.
 
2020-05-20 11:08:42 AM  

Mike_LowELL: Psychopusher: But eventually things will approach a level of normal, even if it's a new normal, and jobs will return.

This is a pretty roundabout way of saying society will collapse and that we will go back to living in the trees, but I'm okay with it.


Nothing is happier than a sloth high up in a tree.
 
2020-05-20 11:38:52 AM  
3 years, at the minimum before things even begin to turn around.  It's going to take time.

Longer if Trump is re-elected.
 
2020-05-20 11:43:06 AM  
Apparently good news for the stonk market. Of course, the Mississippi river turning into blood would be good news for stonk market.
 
2020-05-20 11:45:15 AM  
Wow we have a short memory - wage growth only really started to occur in the past 2 years following the last recession, and even that wasn't for a lot of people. That was a ten year recovery.

Look out folks, this one is going to be a long haul. Especially if you can't describe yourself as mobile and able to relocate to where demand for your skills is good.
 
2020-05-20 11:54:22 AM  
Watch everything that is going on. The vast majority actually think that everything is about to go back to normal, very soon. Even some of the fark warriors.

My hope is that it does not go back to normal. It needs to go to something far from normal.

But that will impact people and no one wants that. Now, if only impacts other people, thats fine, it would seem.
 
2020-05-20 11:55:45 AM  

Psychopusher: That's a bit overly dramatic.  They aren't permanent job losses in the sense that those who lost jobs will never get another.  Lots of places will go out of business or they will simply survive by keeping fewer staff, which will result in a lot of people losing those positions, but inevitably there will be new businesses to take the place of the ones that shut their doors, and they're going to need staff. Yes, there will likely be an absolute shiatload of people who can't get work for quite some time because of this, and that absolutely sucks 31 flavours of ass, but it's not "permanent."

The economy, and lost jobs, are going to take some time to recover, and that's going to put a huge strain on a large percentage of the population, not to mention government assistance for probably at least the next year, likely longer -- none of this is going to just snap back to any degree of normal.  But eventually things will approach a level of normal, even if it's a new normal, and jobs will return.  Almost certainly not under Trump, to be certain, but as long as he's shoved forcefully out of the White House, recovery will happen.

Until then though, yes, things are going to suck painfully hard for a great many people.


A couple restaurants around me are moving to contactless ordering through apps. Server will only be there to bring out food a drinks. That's going to require less wait staff, and probably lower tips since you barely have any contact with the server.

Most white collar jobs are going to be doing some form of permanent telework. You need less cleaning and maintenance staff if offices are only occupied two days a week. Cafeterias and downtown lunch spots will also take a permanent hit.

I bet there are a lot of manucturers are right now finding ways to further automate their lines so they can practice social distancing.

Basic labor jobs were already looking at major losses over the next couple of decades due to automation, AI, 3d printing, etc. Covid has just put those losses on the fast track.
 
2020-05-20 12:14:26 PM  

contrapunctus: 3 years, at the minimum before things even begin to turn around.  It's going to take time.

Longer if Trump is re-elected.


At this point there's no way he doesn't get re-elected. Between all the voter suppression his administration is doing or preparing to do and the sickeningly massive number of his braindead supporters that are ready to commit violence in his name to keep him in office, there's just no way Democrats stand a chance.

I'll be happy to be proven wrong. But if historical examples of fallen democracies are any indication this next election is going to be a farce and very likely the last election for this country. We're farked. I hope I'm just overreacting. But I'm probably not.
 
2020-05-20 12:45:47 PM  

Copperbelly watersnake: Psychopusher: That's a bit overly dramatic.  They aren't permanent job losses in the sense that those who lost jobs will never get another.  Lots of places will go out of business or they will simply survive by keeping fewer staff, which will result in a lot of people losing those positions, but inevitably there will be new businesses to take the place of the ones that shut their doors, and they're going to need staff. Yes, there will likely be an absolute shiatload of people who can't get work for quite some time because of this, and that absolutely sucks 31 flavours of ass, but it's not "permanent."

The economy, and lost jobs, are going to take some time to recover, and that's going to put a huge strain on a large percentage of the population, not to mention government assistance for probably at least the next year, likely longer -- none of this is going to just snap back to any degree of normal.  But eventually things will approach a level of normal, even if it's a new normal, and jobs will return.  Almost certainly not under Trump, to be certain, but as long as he's shoved forcefully out of the White House, recovery will happen.

Until then though, yes, things are going to suck painfully hard for a great many people.

A couple restaurants around me are moving to contactless ordering through apps. Server will only be there to bring out food a drinks. That's going to require less wait staff, and probably lower tips since you barely have any contact with the server.

Most white collar jobs are going to be doing some form of permanent telework. You need less cleaning and maintenance staff if offices are only occupied two days a week. Cafeterias and downtown lunch spots will also take a permanent hit.

I bet there are a lot of manucturers are right now finding ways to further automate their lines so they can practice social distancing.

Basic labor jobs were already looking at major losses over the next couple of decades due to automation, AI, 3d printing, etc. Covi ...


You missed the big one-brick and mortar retail is going to close en masse, especially stuff that was shut down for several months due to the lockdown.  Anything in a mall, most clothing retailers, Gamestop, etc.  There's already been four or five major retailers enter bankruptcy since the lockdown started; much more to come.  Even chains that aren't going out of business will cut underperforming stores.
 
2020-05-20 12:48:17 PM  

Esroc: contrapunctus: 3 years, at the minimum before things even begin to turn around.  It's going to take time.

Longer if Trump is re-elected.

At this point there's no way he doesn't get re-elected. Between all the voter suppression his administration is doing or preparing to do and the sickeningly massive number of his braindead supporters that are ready to commit violence in his name to keep him in office, there's just no way Democrats stand a chance.

I'll be happy to be proven wrong. But if historical examples of fallen democracies are any indication this next election is going to be a farce and very likely the last election for this country. We're farked. I hope I'm just overreacting. But I'm probably not.


The US has one fail safe that most democracies do not: The states run elections, not the Federal government.

Now, some states are completely controlled by Republicans, but even in those, the lengths they will be willing to go to help Trump's cause will be much less than if Trump had direct control.
 
2020-05-20 1:12:23 PM  

Esroc: contrapunctus: 3 years, at the minimum before things even begin to turn around.  It's going to take time.

Longer if Trump is re-elected.

At this point there's no way he doesn't get re-elected. Between all the voter suppression his administration is doing or preparing to do and the sickeningly massive number of his braindead supporters that are ready to commit violence in his name to keep him in office, there's just no way Democrats stand a chance.

I'll be happy to be proven wrong. But if historical examples of fallen democracies are any indication this next election is going to be a farce and very likely the last election for this country. We're farked. I hope I'm just overreacting. But I'm probably not.


Remember when bush jr wasn't going to leave office? Remember when Obama wasn't? The same stupid idea always crops up.
 
2020-05-20 1:13:15 PM  

SafetyThird: Esroc: contrapunctus: 3 years, at the minimum before things even begin to turn around.  It's going to take time.

Longer if Trump is re-elected.

At this point there's no way he doesn't get re-elected. Between all the voter suppression his administration is doing or preparing to do and the sickeningly massive number of his braindead supporters that are ready to commit violence in his name to keep him in office, there's just no way Democrats stand a chance.

I'll be happy to be proven wrong. But if historical examples of fallen democracies are any indication this next election is going to be a farce and very likely the last election for this country. We're farked. I hope I'm just overreacting. But I'm probably not.

Remember when bush jr wasn't going to leave office? Remember when Obama wasn't? The same stupid idea always crops up.


They didn't pull even half the illegal shiat Trump has. That's the only reason I'm scared.
 
2020-05-20 1:54:19 PM  

SafetyThird: Esroc: contrapunctus: 3 years, at the minimum before things even begin to turn around.  It's going to take time.

Longer if Trump is re-elected.

At this point there's no way he doesn't get re-elected. Between all the voter suppression his administration is doing or preparing to do and the sickeningly massive number of his braindead supporters that are ready to commit violence in his name to keep him in office, there's just no way Democrats stand a chance.

I'll be happy to be proven wrong. But if historical examples of fallen democracies are any indication this next election is going to be a farce and very likely the last election for this country. We're farked. I hope I'm just overreacting. But I'm probably not.

Remember when bush jr wasn't going to leave office? Remember when Obama wasn't? The same stupid idea always crops up.


Neither of those two had spent their life larping as (the worst) wannabe mob boss in history
 
2020-05-20 2:13:29 PM  

SafetyThird: Remember when bush jr wasn't going to leave office? Remember when Obama wasn't? The same stupid idea always crops up.


We've never had a Putin-worshipping man-baby in charge that will likely face prosecution if he leaves office. No rational person thought for a second that GWB or Obama wouldn't leave office. I think most of us could totally envision Trump refusing to recognize the elections in any state that he narrowly lost. Unless you think states like Georgia, Arizona, or Texas are going to flip blue it isn't going to be a Democratic landslide that would leave zero wiggle room.
 
2020-05-20 2:26:04 PM  

SafetyThird: Esroc: contrapunctus: 3 years, at the minimum before things even begin to turn around.  It's going to take time.

Longer if Trump is re-elected.

At this point there's no way he doesn't get re-elected. Between all the voter suppression his administration is doing or preparing to do and the sickeningly massive number of his braindead supporters that are ready to commit violence in his name to keep him in office, there's just no way Democrats stand a chance.

I'll be happy to be proven wrong. But if historical examples of fallen democracies are any indication this next election is going to be a farce and very likely the last election for this country. We're farked. I hope I'm just overreacting. But I'm probably not.

Remember when bush jr wasn't going to leave office? Remember when Obama wasn't? The same stupid idea always crops up.


Remember when Trump had to pledge that if he lost the primary, he would walk away?
Remember when Trump basically had to promise that if he lost the general, he would walk away?

It's the same stupid fearmonger bullshiat.

Its like there is a madlibs book, just fill in the blanks.
 
2020-05-20 2:54:01 PM  
Wrong again snowflake.
 
2020-05-20 2:59:31 PM  
University of Chicago?  Pffft.  Wake me when someone other than a state school studies this.

/Alum
 
2020-05-20 3:42:40 PM  

Iwouldhitit: University of Chicago?  Pffft.  Wake me when someone other than a state school studies this.

/Alum


LOL.

They have their own neoclassical school of economic thought named after them.
 
2020-05-20 4:23:19 PM  

Mike_LowELL: Psychopusher: But eventually things will approach a level of normal, even if it's a new normal, and jobs will return.

This is a pretty roundabout way of saying society will collapse and that we will go back to living in the trees, but I'm okay with it.


The Kinks - Apeman 1970
Youtube eEep67akIn4
 
2020-05-20 4:29:07 PM  

SafetyThird: Esroc: contrapunctus: 3 years, at the minimum before things even begin to turn around.  It's going to take time.

Longer if Trump is re-elected.

At this point there's no way he doesn't get re-elected. Between all the voter suppression his administration is doing or preparing to do and the sickeningly massive number of his braindead supporters that are ready to commit violence in his name to keep him in office, there's just no way Democrats stand a chance.

I'll be happy to be proven wrong. But if historical examples of fallen democracies are any indication this next election is going to be a farce and very likely the last election for this country. We're farked. I hope I'm just overreacting. But I'm probably not.

Remember when bush jr wasn't going to leave office? Remember when Obama wasn't? The same stupid idea always crops up.


i.kinja-img.comView Full Size


https://politics.theonion.com/clinton​-​declares-self-president-for-life-18195​65819
 
2020-05-20 4:46:53 PM  
Obvious tag trying to distance while standing in unemployment line?
 
2020-05-20 5:28:32 PM  

Geotpf: Copperbelly watersnake: Psychopusher: That's a bit overly dramatic.  They aren't permanent job losses in the sense that those who lost jobs will never get another.  Lots of places will go out of business or they will simply survive by keeping fewer staff, which will result in a lot of people losing those positions, but inevitably there will be new businesses to take the place of the ones that shut their doors, and they're going to need staff. Yes, there will likely be an absolute shiatload of people who can't get work for quite some time because of this, and that absolutely sucks 31 flavours of ass, but it's not "permanent."

The economy, and lost jobs, are going to take some time to recover, and that's going to put a huge strain on a large percentage of the population, not to mention government assistance for probably at least the next year, likely longer -- none of this is going to just snap back to any degree of normal.  But eventually things will approach a level of normal, even if it's a new normal, and jobs will return.  Almost certainly not under Trump, to be certain, but as long as he's shoved forcefully out of the White House, recovery will happen.

Until then though, yes, things are going to suck painfully hard for a great many people.

A couple restaurants around me are moving to contactless ordering through apps. Server will only be there to bring out food a drinks. That's going to require less wait staff, and probably lower tips since you barely have any contact with the server.

Most white collar jobs are going to be doing some form of permanent telework. You need less cleaning and maintenance staff if offices are only occupied two days a week. Cafeterias and downtown lunch spots will also take a permanent hit.

I bet there are a lot of manucturers are right now finding ways to further automate their lines so they can practice social distancing.

Basic labor jobs were already looking at major losses over the next couple of decades due to automation, AI
AI, 3d printing, etc. Covi ...

You missed the big one-brick and mortar retail is going to close en masse, especially stuff that was shut down for several months due to the lockdown.  Anything in a mall, most clothing retailers, Gamestop, etc.  There's already been four or five major retailers enter bankruptcy since the lockdown started; much more to come.  Even chains that aren't going out of business will cut underperforming stores.


Yep, this is going to thin the herd in a big way.  Alot of brick & mortar retail was only hanging on through inertia anyway.  I don't think you'll see anyone lining up to invest in re-opening alot of these places - they were dying before COVID, but it might have stretched out years. This is just the final bat to the head to toss them on the cart. There go a huge number of low skill jobs.

I think we've been overbuilt in restaurants for awhile, but it worked because the economy was ok.  We'll find that we don't really need as much as we had and automation will contract the labor force in the remainder.  More low skill jobs on the ash heap.

Businesses are going to re-open slowly to maintain social distancing - 1/4 staff, then 1/2 staff, alternating in-person & work-from-home.  And they're going to find in alot of cases that they can get by on lower levels of staff and real estate then they've been used to having.  Particularly to serve a contracted economy.  More low and mid level jobs gone.

If you thought economic disparity & lack of mobility were bad before ... you ain't seen nothing yet.

But hey - Walmart & Amazon are hiring.
 
2020-05-20 5:40:16 PM  

mcreadyblue: Iwouldhitit: University of Chicago?  Pffft.  Wake me when someone other than a state school studies this.

/Alum

LOL.

They have their own neoclassical school of economic thought named after them.


Widely ridiculed school of economic thought.
 
2020-05-20 7:25:10 PM  

brizzle365: Watch everything that is going on. The vast majority actually think that everything is about to go back to normal, very soon. Even some of the fark warriors.
My hope is that it does not go back to normal. It needs to go to something far from normal.
But that will impact people and no one wants that. Now, if only impacts other people, thats fine, it would seem.


There was nothing normal about what was going on in this country. A few more months, and we'd remember some other way to live
We have re-open Disneyland right now.
 
2020-05-20 7:49:52 PM  

Nick Nostril: Apparently good news for the stonk market. Of course, the Mississippi river turning into blood would be good news for stonk market.


the Stocked Market loves losing labor.  that's more money for their sit at home stock owners.

the biggest expense running a business is Labor.  that extra money would be better utilized by the sit on their fat asses at home stock owners.

how can this work:

one word...........Automation/robots.

well, two words anyway.

Automation is the single biggest job destroyer in existence.
 
2020-05-20 7:51:11 PM  

Lamberts Ho Man: Geotpf: Copperbelly watersnake: Psychopusher: That's a bit overly dramatic.  They aren't permanent job losses in the sense that those who lost jobs will never get another.  Lots of places will go out of business or they will simply survive by keeping fewer staff, which will result in a lot of people losing those positions, but inevitably there will be new businesses to take the place of the ones that shut their doors, and they're going to need staff. Yes, there will likely be an absolute shiatload of people who can't get work for quite some time because of this, and that absolutely sucks 31 flavours of ass, but it's not "permanent."

The economy, and lost jobs, are going to take some time to recover, and that's going to put a huge strain on a large percentage of the population, not to mention government assistance for probably at least the next year, likely longer -- none of this is going to just snap back to any degree of normal.  But eventually things will approach a level of normal, even if it's a new normal, and jobs will return.  Almost certainly not under Trump, to be certain, but as long as he's shoved forcefully out of the White House, recovery will happen.

Until then though, yes, things are going to suck painfully hard for a great many people.

A couple restaurants around me are moving to contactless ordering through apps. Server will only be there to bring out food a drinks. That's going to require less wait staff, and probably lower tips since you barely have any contact with the server.

Most white collar jobs are going to be doing some form of permanent telework. You need less cleaning and maintenance staff if offices are only occupied two days a week. Cafeterias and downtown lunch spots will also take a permanent hit.

I bet there are a lot of manucturers are right now finding ways to further automate their lines so they can practice social distancing.

Basic labor jobs were already looking at major losses over the next couple of decades due to automa ...


good paying middle class jobs!!
 
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