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(My Fox 8 Greensboro)   People are having 'COVID-19 parties' to build up immunity. Stupid, Asinine and Facepalm tags all on ventilators, Dumbass tag in ICU   (myfox8.com) divider line
    More: Murica, Infection, Existential quantification, deadly virus, Monday, health expert FOX8, Immunity, Immune system, Universal quantification  
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2491 clicks; posted to Main » on 19 May 2020 at 10:20 AM (7 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2020-05-19 3:22:58 PM  

Znuh: Listening to Sean M's FUD will get you killed.

R0 is 5.7. 

90,000 dead in two months.

It's real, it kills, and if it doesn't kill you, you stand a good change of being farked for life.

Extra bonus if you become an asymptomatic super-shedder and kill innocents while tooling around.

Stay at home works. 
Breaking the cycle of infection, works. 
Reducing the load on Hospitals is a good thing. 
Wearing your damn mask reduces spread. 

Remember, it doesn't care about your Politics, it doesn't care about your feelings. It cares for hosts. 

All it wants are hosts. 

Don't let it have any new ones.


Minor point, but like the flu, there's no guarantee that staying home and "breaking the cycle of infection" will do anything but delay the inevitable.  About the only thing that we can bank on actually happening with the stay at home thing is that the rate of infection will slow to a point where hospitals can handle the load.

Just like every other strain of the coronavirus out there, it's never going to just "go away" and never come back.

And we'd better get used to the idea that we're going to have to live with the risk and take appropriate steps to live our lives in ways that reduce the risk of infection, but knowing full well that all we can really do is improve our health and reduce our risk factors for the virus being lethal.

No, I'm not saying "lulz, do nothing", either. I'm pointing out that this virus isn't likely to completely die out and not come back, and unless we plan to live our lives in hermetically sealed bubbles forever, it's going to keep infecting people.
 
2020-05-19 3:24:08 PM  

Graffito: Sean M: FormlessOne: Because of assholes like those having "COVID-19 parties," the measures and hardship we've gone through for the last three months is largely wasted.

I hate to break it to you, but the lockdowns have NOT been effective and were largely a waste.   The whole point of them was to "flatten the curve", a.k.a. make sure the hospitals weren't overwhelmed. NOT prevent people from getting infected.  I'm not sure where people get the idea that the lockdowns were to stop infections.

The mathematical modelling "science" ended up being flat-out wrong.  The hospitals weren't overwhelmed, not even close.  Field hospitals were set up all around the country.  None of them saw actual use.   It was predicted that Florida would need 460,000 hospital beds at the peak.  It saw 2,100 beds used at the peak.

In many (most?) areas, nursing home residents make up about 50% of the deaths.   These people aren't exactly moving around town.  Lockdowns did nothing to protect them.  Even a recent article in a British medical journal, The Lancet, stated as much and properly concludes that the majority of the population will be infected, with lockdown measures not making one fark's worth of difference to the number of deaths.

As far as COVID parties, there isn't any support for that on any grounds at this point.  Is it dangerous?  Not really.  The CFR for seasonal influenza is ~0.0025-0.001.   CFR for COVID seems to be around 0.004-0.00004.  Most epidemiologists would agree that 0.004 is higher than what it really is due to the limited number of tests done so far.   So realistically, the seasonal flu is more deadly.  High CFR #s are common in the initial stages of a pandemic, as all you're testing are symptomatic people, so the true infection rates aren't known.

/yes, I attended medical school.
//yes, I hated the public health/epidemiology courses.   As does just about every other nurse/doctor who went through them.

Please tell me you don't practice medicine.


Well, medical malpractice is responsible for between 250k and 450k deaths every year, so...
 
2020-05-19 3:26:15 PM  

Tommy Moo: For over a century controlling viral load was exactly how we inoculated people against disease.


Are you thinking about the cow pox and small pox? Your idea of "control" is rather sweeping.
 
2020-05-19 3:43:35 PM  
Time to start arresting people. This is no longer a joke. Deliberately exposing yourself and others to the virus should be considered an act of harm to the community.
 
2020-05-19 3:43:59 PM  
Arguing about viral load, infections, immunity, vaccines, deaths, antibodies, lockdowns, quarantines, and reopening is all a waste of time, since human nature is gonna eventually win out in a landslide. It may happen slowly over months or even years, but eventually people will go back to work, school, socializing, and not thinking any more about Coronavirus than they do the Spanish flu or any of the other goop in the microbial soup we all swim in daily without a second thought.

The telling thing is that this fact seems to anger a lot of you and reveals your very deep and disturbing authoritarian tendencies and hate for others that don't think like you do.
 
2020-05-19 4:06:55 PM  
My sister is a respiratory therapist

And she tells me 8 out of 10 people who are so bad off they need a ventilator,, die on a ventilator.

If you cant breathe on your own, without the aid of a machine, your farked, pretty much.
 
2020-05-19 4:09:04 PM  

jso2897: yakmans_dad: jso2897: The idea that "everybody's gonig to get it" is sub-stupid.
yakmans_dad: I went to a bar in Germany that was down in some second basement. Until your comment, that was the lowest bar I'd ever seen.


How so? Am I wrong? Can you prove it?
Protip: You can't.

Well, our exchange is already jam-packed with cliches, so I'll just say that a demand for proof wasn't part of my criticism.

Was anything? It was just a baseless slur, with no informational content.


Yes, there was something. Scorn. Not overwhelming information, true. It was even hyperbolic. People who say that everybody won't die from AGW are actually the lowest bar I've ever read.
 
2020-05-19 4:12:20 PM  

gretzkyscores: Arguing about viral load, infections, immunity, vaccines, deaths, antibodies, lockdowns, quarantines, and reopening is all a waste of time, since human nature is gonna eventually win out in a landslide. It may happen slowly over months or even years, but eventually people will go back to work, school, socializing, and not thinking any more about Coronavirus than they do the Spanish flu or any of the other goop in the microbial soup we all swim in daily without a second thought.

The telling thing is that this fact seems to anger a lot of you and reveals your very deep and disturbing authoritarian tendencies and hate for others that don't think like you do.


bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.comView Full Size

 
2020-05-19 4:34:07 PM  

eddie_irvine: There is some evidence to the contrary, that several people who have tested positive again after having had Covid.


Later tests showed those were false positives.

The way that COVID-19 works, they figured out that you can still test positive for it for about a month after you're over it.

The virus infects the lining of the lungs.  Even after its dead, and your body has overcome the disease, you're still shedding those cells containing dead viruses.

The COVID-19 test looks for the DNA of the virus, which will still be there in the dead viruses.

Until the body has purged the infected cells, you'll be exhaling dead coronavirus, and that takes several weeks to about a month.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo​r​ld/asia/coronavirus-south-korea-patien​ts-infected-twice-test-a9491986.html
 
2020-05-19 5:00:51 PM  
There is no such thing as herd immunity without a vaccine, all you accomplish by purposely spreading around is putting others in danger.

And by trying to dismiss it away and reopen prematurely you are doing more harm to the economy, I am even more wary of going to unnecessary public establishment now than I was at the beginning because people have been such flippant self absorbed asholes about the whole thing.

Most people will continue to listen to medical experts and not republican politiicians.You are making it nearly impossible to "get back to normal".
 
2020-05-19 5:14:50 PM  

gretzkyscores: Arguing about viral load, infections, immunity, vaccines, deaths, antibodies, lockdowns, quarantines, and reopening is all a waste of time, since human nature is gonna eventually win out in a landslide. It may happen slowly over months or even years, but eventually people will go back to work, school, socializing, and not thinking any more about Coronavirus than they do the Spanish flu or any of the other goop in the microbial soup we all swim in daily without a second thought.

The telling thing is that this fact seems to anger a lot of you and reveals your very deep and disturbing authoritarian tendencies and hate for others that don't think like you do.


The "anger" you may erroneously perceive is due to the fact that the decisions to do these things are not being made by doctors, they are not being made by scientists, they are not being made by contagious disease experts, and they are not being made by people who bothered to crack a book and read something in their lives.

These decisions are made by scumbag politicians, their cronies, and their moron believers, people who wouldn't know what a virus was if one crawled up their f'king leg yet perceive themselves experts because they don't like being told to do anything, even if that thing will help them. Childish behavior from people who are supposed to be adults merits annoyance and even "anger", especially when the stakes are life and death.

Any "anger" that exists is because of them and their effect on what should have always been a rational scientific discussion about disease, and medicine, and ways to slow or maybe even stop so many people from needlessly dying. Instead this entire pandemic has been turned into a f'king circus with idiot clowns.
 
2020-05-19 5:23:31 PM  

Huggermugger: AnEasyTarget: There is no science on prior infected being able to transmit the virus. Yes you may have the antibodies and may be immune but we don't if you can also be a transmitter.

Therefore you may be intentionally harming others. There hasn't been enough time to research these things.

/ I blame lack of scientific knowledge.

Yeah, that reminds me of the time that Empress Maria Theresa visited the coffin of her daughter-in-law who had just died of smallpox, and forced several of her daughters to accompany her.  And then some of the daughters caught smallpox from that exposure, and some of them died, and some of them lived but were so facially disfigured from the pox that no one would marry them.


But the Empress prayed first! How could that have gone wrong?
 
2020-05-19 5:34:47 PM  

Tommy Moo: Before you rush to judgment, consider that there might be something to this. It depends on how they are going about it. Back in the 19th century this was how they inoculated for smallpox. They intentionally exposed people to levels of the virus that the body could fight off.


You're confusing smallpox and chicken pox. For smallpox they gave people cowpox.

Why are some people getting very sick while others have virtually no symptoms? It has to do with viral load. If you get fewer than 1000 viral particles, such as one might be exposed to when just breathing the same air with an infected person for a few minutes, then it doesn't progress to a runaway infection in most people, but you still build antibodies which can then protect you from higher levels of exposure in the future.

You've got a bad link, but I think you're trying to go to an editorial from April 1, 2020 that doesn't link to any studies or research. That article notes that the issue of viral load is "being overlooked"--in other words, this is Rabinowitz's hypothesis.

And if you look for other articles making that argument, you keep running into him and only him, and even he doesn't advocate what you're saying. Because we don't know if a small exposure gives you immunity.

Here's actual information about how viral load works--it isn't about how much you're exposed to, but how long the replication works before the immune system kicks in. https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/ex​p​ert-reaction-to-questions-about-covid-​19-and-viral-load/

Of course, it's very hard to control exposure levels in an ad hoc setting, and the FDA isn't going to approve this type of therapy, but it's not like these people are doing something completely out of left field here. Does anyone else remember their parents bringing them to chicken pox parties when they were kids?

That was before there was a vaccine, we knew that chicken pox brings lifetime immunity, and we also knew that it did more damage post-adolescence than pre.
 
2020-05-19 5:52:05 PM  

Sean M: FormlessOne: Because of assholes like those having "COVID-19 parties," the measures and hardship we've gone through for the last three months is largely wasted.

I hate to break it to you, but the lockdowns have NOT been effective and were largely a waste.   The whole point of them was to "flatten the curve", a.k.a. make sure the hospitals weren't overwhelmed. NOT prevent people from getting infected.  I'm not sure where people get the idea that the lockdowns were to stop infections.

The mathematical modelling "science" ended up being flat-out wrong.  The hospitals weren't overwhelmed, not even close.  Field hospitals were set up all around the country.  None of them saw actual use.   It was predicted that Florida would need 460,000 hospital beds at the peak.  It saw 2,100 beds used at the peak.


Yeah, because of social distancing, the curve was flattened. You understand that, right? You're like someone saying, "I wore a seatbelt, and got in a car accident, and wasn't hurt. So, wearing the seatbelt was a waste of time."

Things got pretty bad in New York.

In many (most?) areas, nursing home residents make up about 50% of the deaths.   These people aren't exactly moving around town.  Lockdowns did nothing to protect them.  Even a recent article in a British medical journal, The Lancet, stated as much and properly concludes that the majority of the population will be infected, with lockdown measures not making one fark's worth of difference to the number of deaths.

Where are you getting that data about nursing homes? And you're right, they don't leave nursing homes. Therefore they have no contact with the outside world. (Think about that for a second.)

I don't know what article you're talking about in The Lancet--could you give more identifying information?

As far as COVID parties, there isn't any support for that on any grounds at this point.  Is it dangerous?  Not really.  The CFR for seasonal influenza is ~0.0025-0.001.   CFR for COVID seems to be around 0.004-0.00004.  Most epidemiologists would agree that 0.004 is higher than what it really is due to the limited number of tests done so far.   So realistically, the seasonal flu is more deadly.  High CFR #s are common in the initial stages of a pandemic, as all you're testing are symptomatic people, so the true infection rates aren't known.

The Lancet does have an article saying COVID has a higher CFR. More important, even by your argument, initial stages of pandemic tend to be more deadly.

/yes, I attended medical school.
I'm curious that you phrase it this way.

//yes, I hated the public health/epidemiology courses.   As does just about every other nurse/doctor who went through them.

Yep, except virologists, of course. It's one reason that epidemiologists and virologists get grumpy with plastic surgeons (or whatever) who have strong opinions on epidemics.
 
2020-05-19 6:38:32 PM  

Tommy Moo: Skeleton Man: The lockdowns prevented all of those worst-case scenario models, dingus.

We locked our doors and nobody got inside! What a waste of time!

Except that Sweden never locked down and didn't run out of ICU beds either.

In theory, the US didn't either. But people in New York couldn't get to ICU beds in North Dakota. Sweden had far more ICU beds available close to where people needed them, and Sweden has the fourth highest mortality rate from COVID.
There are a lot of people being extremely smug who aren't supported by any actual data or science.

Says the guy who has yet to cite anything.

They said back in March that "OMG we're all gonna die unless we do A, B, and C!" and now that the data is showing otherwise, they are stubbornly showing an emotional committed to not having been wrong.

This has been explained to you multiple times. You're like someone saying, "After we instituted seatbelt laws, the number of fatal car crashes dropped, so the laws were unnecessary."

Look, you're out of your depth here.

Think about it this way: what would persuade you that you're wrong? What would persuade you that social distancing was effective? Anything?
 
2020-05-19 6:43:28 PM  
OK, let me see if I understand all this correctly:

1. Testing is absolutely necessary, unless someone says it isn't.
2. Testing has no value, unless someone says it's desperately needed.
2.a. We need to expand testing NOW!

3. Facial masks are a must. Unless someone says they're not really all that effective.
4. ONLY N95 ultra mega super masks will work, but a dirty bandana will do just fine, so WEAR ONE!

5. Only the elderly, Immuno-compromised, and those with underlying conditions are at severe risk. That means everyone.
6. The only way to flatten the curve is to destroy our civilization as we know it to be.
7. We can start opening soon. Real soon. Honest.
8. Stay home until EVERYONE is immunized, Sometime around 2024.

9. Antibodies good. Unless someone says they are not. Unless they are.

10. I have altered the lockdown rules. Pray that I don't alter them further.

Am I doing it right?

/Making it up as we go along.
//Using a Ouija board with half the letters missing should work just as well
///Make America SANE again.
 
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