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(Politico)   Great, unemployment is about to get even more depressing   (politico.com) divider line
    More: Murica, Great Depression, central bank, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, Unemployment, important policy objectives, Federal Reserve System, financial markets, Fed chief  
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3490 clicks; posted to Politics » on 18 May 2020 at 3:45 PM (19 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2020-05-18 10:16:31 AM  
I think this is the real takeaway:

"When the Depression, well, when the crash happened and all that, the financial system really failed," Powell said. "Here, our financial system is strong."

This depression has nothing to do with the economy. It's 100% caused and controlled by the virus. When we solve the virus, we solve the depression. We need to keep things going until then.
 
2020-05-18 11:45:20 AM  

Mitch Taylor's Bro: I think this is the real takeaway:

"When the Depression, well, when the crash happened and all that, the financial system really failed," Powell said. "Here, our financial system is strong."

This depression has nothing to do with the economy. It's 100% caused and controlled by the virus. When we solve the virus, we solve the depression. We need to keep things going until then.


Not necessarily.  The US was already entering a recession prior to the pandemic.  The virus will need to be contained and consumer confidence will need to be restored.  That could take many years, especially for some industries like dining and travel.
 
2020-05-18 12:24:04 PM  

Dinjiin: Mitch Taylor's Bro: I think this is the real takeaway:

"When the Depression, well, when the crash happened and all that, the financial system really failed," Powell said. "Here, our financial system is strong."

This depression has nothing to do with the economy. It's 100% caused and controlled by the virus. When we solve the virus, we solve the depression. We need to keep things going until then.

Not necessarily.  The US was already entering a recession prior to the pandemic.  The virus will need to be contained and consumer confidence will need to be restored.  That could take many years, especially for some industries like dining and travel.


I didn't say the solution would be instantaneous. I did say we need to keep things going until then. Regrettably, that means bailing out large industries like travel and hospitality.

There will be fallout from this crisis--things will not go back to the way they were before the pandemic--but we will adjust to the changes and learn to live with the new coronavirus. Then we get to address the trillions added to the national debt to get to that point. But I think that's an easier problem to solve than finding treatments and vaccines for a new virus.
 
2020-05-18 1:57:03 PM  
But the stock market is up!

Why don't the unemployed just sells some of their portfolio or something!?!?

/are they lazy?
 
2020-05-18 2:38:13 PM  
I hope key members of the WH lose their jobs this coming November.
 
2020-05-18 3:46:24 PM  

Mitch Taylor's Bro: I think this is the real takeaway:

"When the Depression, well, when the crash happened and all that, the financial system really failed," Powell said. "Here, our financial system is strong."

This depression has nothing to do with the economy. It's 100% caused and controlled by the virus. When we solve the virus, we solve the depression. We need to keep things going until then.


Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-05-18 3:48:19 PM  
I'm sure the 1% are really concerned with this news ..
 
Xai [TotalFark]
2020-05-18 3:48:41 PM  

Mitch Taylor's Bro: I think this is the real takeaway:

"When the Depression, well, when the crash happened and all that, the financial system really failed," Powell said. "Here, our financial system is strong."

This depression has nothing to do with the economy. It's 100% caused and controlled by the virus. When we solve the virus, we solve the depression. We need to keep things going until then.


BS and it's easy to see why.

Look to europe, they have had harder and harsher lockdowns, they have been hit just as hard as the US if not harder.

Take the UK as an example, they are at 4% unemployment, up from 3.8%, expected to peak at 10%.
Compare that to the USA, currently 14.7% unemployment, up from 3.5% in feb, expected to peak at 25%.

This is mismanagement by the government, not the virus alone.
 
2020-05-18 3:49:45 PM  

Dinjiin: Mitch Taylor's Bro: I think this is the real takeaway:

"When the Depression, well, when the crash happened and all that, the financial system really failed," Powell said. "Here, our financial system is strong."

This depression has nothing to do with the economy. It's 100% caused and controlled by the virus. When we solve the virus, we solve the depression. We need to keep things going until then.

Not necessarily.  The US was already entering a recession prior to the pandemic.  The virus will need to be contained and consumer confidence will need to be restored.  That could take many years, especially for some industries like dining and travel.


So when the shiat hits the fan, a democrat will come in and fix it just in time for another republican to get into office during an economic upturn. Again
 
2020-05-18 3:50:05 PM  

Mitch Taylor's Bro: I didn't say the solution would be instantaneous. I did say we need to keep things going until then. Regrettably, that means bailing out large industries like travel and hospitality.


Why does it mean that? How much money are we going to throw at businesses that have no shot of recovering any time soon? Why can't their investors just take the L and not insulate themselves with your money?
 
2020-05-18 3:50:16 PM  

Mitch Taylor's Bro: I think this is the real takeaway:

"When the Depression, well, when the crash happened and all that, the financial system really failed," Powell said. "Here, our financial system is strong."

This depression has nothing to do with the economy. It's 100% caused and controlled by the virus. When we solve the virus, we solve the depression. We need to keep things going until then.


When  that other chair was built, it was flawed so it collapsed and fell over.
But with our chair, it got sat on and then collapsed, proving everything would have been fine had it not anything bad ever happened in reality.
 
2020-05-18 3:50:29 PM  

hugram: I hope key members of the WH lose their jobs this coming November.


I hope many of them end up serving time.
 
2020-05-18 3:51:22 PM  

Dinjiin: Mitch Taylor's Bro: I think this is the real takeaway:

"When the Depression, well, when the crash happened and all that, the financial system really failed," Powell said. "Here, our financial system is strong."

This depression has nothing to do with the economy. It's 100% caused and controlled by the virus. When we solve the virus, we solve the depression. We need to keep things going until then.

Not necessarily.  The US was already entering a recession prior to the pandemic.  The virus will need to be contained and consumer confidence will need to be restored.  That could take many years, especially for some industries like dining and travel.


We've been inflating the stock market by giving large corporations huge tax cuts over the last three years. We've been cutting taxes where we should have been raising them. Trump has tied his presidency to the stock market (which is completely divested from the economic reality that the vast majority of Americans live in) and he is desperate that the bubble that he pushed for doesn't pop before the November elections. He's rapidly getting to the "Turn those machines back on" panic when he realizes that the stock market is going to go bust once nobody has any money to spend because they're unemployed. His only hope is to push out trillions of dollars to the American poor and middle classes to keep everything afloat for a few more months and we all know how Republicans feel about money that doesn't go to the rich.
 
2020-05-18 3:52:03 PM  
25% should be nothing. According to Trump, in 2016 we were at 42%!
https://www.marketplace.org/2016/08/0​4​/trump-doubts-government-reports-low-u​nemployment/
 
2020-05-18 3:52:40 PM  
special20:
[Fark user image 501x336]

I have a issues with that picture.  trumps fat butt was never that small and the trump supporter's face should have been buried deep inside the flabby flaps trump calls his bums.

trump pandemic.
trump recession.
trump depression.
trump failure.
 
2020-05-18 3:53:48 PM  
"expressed hope that the economy would come out of recession in the second half of the year"

June 1 is two weeks away and we still haven't peaked with unemployment figures. I am not an economist by any means, but short of a miracle cure I don't see how we are emerging from recession in 6 months.
 
2020-05-18 3:54:00 PM  

SpectroBoy: But the stock market is up!

Why don't the unemployed just sells some of their portfolio or something!?!?

/are they lazy?


Why don't they just borrow some money from their parents?
 
2020-05-18 3:54:54 PM  
42% of these lost jobs aren't coming back.  So there's that.  And there'll be a lot of union busting conveniently blamed on Covid-19.
 
2020-05-18 3:56:06 PM  
Roughly 11% of the US population has successfully applied for unemployment. Thats a) workforce-able people who b) met the requirements to file and c) bothered to file and d) had their claim received.

Taking all those caveats into consideration just for unemployment claims, we are probably at or above the Great Depression already.
 
2020-05-18 3:58:29 PM  

red230: Dinjiin: Mitch Taylor's Bro: I think this is the real takeaway:

"When the Depression, well, when the crash happened and all that, the financial system really failed," Powell said. "Here, our financial system is strong."

This depression has nothing to do with the economy. It's 100% caused and controlled by the virus. When we solve the virus, we solve the depression. We need to keep things going until then.

Not necessarily.  The US was already entering a recession prior to the pandemic.  The virus will need to be contained and consumer confidence will need to be restored.  That could take many years, especially for some industries like dining and travel.

We've been inflating the stock market by giving large corporations huge tax cuts over the last three years. We've been cutting taxes where we should have been raising them. Trump has tied his presidency to the stock market (which is completely divested from the economic reality that the vast majority of Americans live in) and he is desperate that the bubble that he pushed for doesn't pop before the November elections. He's rapidly getting to the "Turn those machines back on" panic when he realizes that the stock market is going to go bust once nobody has any money to spend because they're unemployed. His only hope is to push out trillions of dollars to the American poor and middle classes to keep everything afloat for a few more months and we all know how Republicans feel about money that doesn't go to the rich.


We had inverted yields on bonds around a year ago, IIRC. That's a leading indicator of a drop in the market. Also prior to the collapse price/earnings ratios were way out of whack for a large number of companies. Anyone paying attention knew there was going to be at minimum a big correction if not a recession. The virus might be the difference between recession and depression, but that's all. Trump knew damn well the market was over-inflated but he hoped he could hold off the correction until after the election.

His only hope is to pour money into the hands of people who will spend it immediately, i.e. - the poor and working class. Senate Republicans will never let that happen. Handouts are for the rich and connected, not those people.
 
2020-05-18 3:58:34 PM  

Mitch Taylor's Bro: I think this is the real takeaway:

"When the Depression, well, when the crash happened and all that, the financial system really failed," Powell said. "Here, our financial system is strong."

This depression has nothing to do with the economy. It's 100% caused and controlled by the virus. When we solve the virus, we solve the depression. We need to keep things going until then.


So yet again we have to socialize the risk in order to protect capitalism from the evils of socialism.

Screw that.  Let them go broke.  I guarantee that when demand returns, there'll be another capitalist there to supply whatever it is consumers want.  Nothing wrong with seeding a new, different batch of rich folks along the way.

If the current rich are so deserving, they'll be part of that new group of wealthy people anyway. No point in going further into debt to set up what is inevitable already.

Or we can use this opportunity to inject a healthy dose of "common good" back into the national culture.  To remember and respect one of the founding principles of this nation.
 
2020-05-18 3:59:50 PM  

jerryskid: special20:
[Fark user image 501x336]

I have a issues with that picture.  trumps fat butt was never that small and the trump supporter's face should have been buried deep inside the flabby flaps trump calls his bums.

trump pandemic.
trump recession.
trump depression.
trump failure.


Well, you asked for it...
Fark user imageView Full Size

Sorry about that, everybody else.
 
2020-05-18 3:59:52 PM  

Dinjiin: Not necessarily.  The US was already entering a recession prior to the pandemic.  The virus will need to be contained and consumer confidence will need to be restored.  That could take many years, especially for some industries like dining and travel.


Its going to take a lot of democrats to clean up after this republican.
 
2020-05-18 4:00:26 PM  
"The Fed chief expressed hope that the economy would come out of recession in the second half of the year."

Which year? 2021?
 
2020-05-18 4:05:55 PM  
what would help is a few more American trillionaires.
 
2020-05-18 4:10:51 PM  

Program User: Screw that.  Let them go broke.  I guarantee that when demand returns, there'll be another capitalist there to supply whatever it is consumers want.  Nothing wrong with seeding a new, different batch of rich folks along the way.

If the current rich are so deserving, they'll be part of that new group of wealthy people anyway. No point in going further into debt to set up what is inevitable already.

Or we can use this opportunity to inject a healthy dose of "common good" back into the national culture.  To remember and respect one of the founding principles of this nation.


Demand won't return if the people don't have any money with which to demand. Hard to get money when you're out of work.

Of course, if we didn't bail out businesses who will fire people anyhow, pocket the money, and just rehire when they re-open, we could use that money to directly help the people who will spend it, keeping demand steady and some businesses afloat. We could help that out with a wealth (not income) tax on rich people and corporations and remind them we're all in this together and they can afford it the most. But that might be socialism.
 
2020-05-18 4:12:02 PM  

Mitch Taylor's Bro: I think this is the real takeaway:

"When the Depression, well, when the crash happened and all that, the financial system really failed," Powell said. "Here, our financial system is strong."

This depression has nothing to do with the economy. It's 100% caused and controlled by the virus. When we solve the virus, we solve the depression. We need to keep things going until then.


Yes and no.

The economy won't fully recover until there's a 100% (or at least very close) effective vaccine that is cheap, easy to get, and has no side serious effects.

This could take six months.

This could take 12 months.

This could take 18 months.

This could take three years.

This could take five years.

This could never happen.

Now, the longer it takes, the more accepting we will be having a half a million people a year or so drop dead from this thing in the US alone (it's only really been circulating in the US for a little more than two months with 90k dead so far).  But without a vaccine (or, alternatively, effective treatment for most people who otherwise would die from it), the economy won't fully recover.

Then, there's the re-aligning of the economy.  In some cases (but nowhere near all) this was happening anyways; the virus just sped it up.  I estimate 50% of all brick and mortal clothing retailers, 50% of all airlines, 75% of all movie theaters, 50% of all hotels, 100% of all cruise ship companies, 75% of all bars, and 50% of all sit down restaurants will go out of business.  All the people who worked for those places will be out of work, not spending money at the places that are left.  The magnitude of this will vary a bit depending on the virus, but probably the majority of these bankruptcies will happen in the next few months; too soon for a vaccine to be available even on the most generous timeline.  There will be some new businesses formed; maybe one for every ten that close.

Net result is double digit unemployment until there's a vaccine (max two years), followed by a very slow decline to 9.5%, 9%, 8.5%, etc.

I hope I'm overly pessimistic.
 
2020-05-18 4:16:30 PM  

Mitch Taylor's Bro: I think this is the real takeaway:

"When the Depression, well, when the crash happened and all that, the financial system really failed," Powell said. "Here, our financial system is strong."

This depression has nothing to do with the economy. It's 100% caused and controlled by the virus. When we solve the virus, we solve the depression. We need to keep things going until then.


If your "real takeaway" is that the current financial system, which crashed catastrophically about a decade ago and then wasn't patched, fixed, or modified even a tiny bit in any way, which was already in a recession in mid-2018 and the entirety of 2019 by every metric related to the actual health of the economy (there is a reason you never heard the administration ever talk about anything but one single mostly unrelated metric, the stock market; bringing up any of the actual metrics used to evaluate economic health paints a pretty farking clear picture), is "healthy" and "succeeding"... you fail to understand shiat a lot more basic than basic economics.

Like... you have to almost lack object permanence to think something that stupid.  I'm not even sure that's a metaphor: you seem to literally lack the mental ability developed by most human infants in their first year to understand that if something exists, and nothing is done do change it, it's probably still there even if you're willfully avoiding looking in that direction.

Also, did you like, never go outside even prior to the plague?  Because there have been three farking Trumpvilles with homeless populations of a hundred or more within walking distance of my apartment since early 2018, so all you need to work this out if you're ever anywhere near actual civilization is eyes.
 
2020-05-18 4:22:28 PM  
Let's see what The Onion has to say about this:

https://www.theonion.com/stocks-rally​-​on-hope-for-coronavirus-vaccine-184352​5663

LOL, as always, The Onion is more accurate than most actual news disseminators.
 
2020-05-18 4:26:03 PM  

Mitch Taylor's Bro: It's 100% caused and controlled by the virus our gross over-reaction to the virus.

 
2020-05-18 4:31:22 PM  
This all isn't really hard.  It is standard textbook macro economics.  Central banks/governments have to spend like crazy to keep money moving in the economy.  Not putting money in "job creator" pockets...putting it in the pocket of people who will spend it.

Putting $3000 in the pocket of a low income person does more good for the economy than $3000 in the pocket of a millionaire, assuming that the millionaire may not spend it.

Further, in terms of the covid, the federal government cuts over the last three years opened the door to this happening.  And the local and state governments have not recovered in terms of personnel from 2008.  We were woefully under prepared for this, but we dont have to be.

The problem?  If you do anything to fix the problem that will actually work you will end up repudiating decades of Republican catch phrases:

Government is the problem
Government is like your home checking account...sometime you have to cut the budget
Paying poor people just wastes money on people who wont work
Social Security and all that unemployment insurance stuff should just be privatized or whatever

take your pick.  it is all demonstrably wrong, or at least wrong in the situation that we are in.
 
2020-05-18 4:31:35 PM  

Geotpf: Mitch Taylor's Bro: I think this is the real takeaway:

"When the Depression, well, when the crash happened and all that, the financial system really failed," Powell said. "Here, our financial system is strong."

This depression has nothing to do with the economy. It's 100% caused and controlled by the virus. When we solve the virus, we solve the depression. We need to keep things going until then.

Yes and no.

The economy won't fully recover until there's a 100% (or at least very close) effective vaccine that is cheap, easy to get, and has no side serious effects.

This could take six months.

This could take 12 months.

This could take 18 months.

This could take three years.

This could take five years.

This could never happen.

Now, the longer it takes, the more accepting we will be having a half a million people a year or so drop dead from this thing in the US alone (it's only really been circulating in the US for a little more than two months with 90k dead so far).  But without a vaccine (or, alternatively, effective treatment for most people who otherwise would die from it), the economy won't fully recover.

Then, there's the re-aligning of the economy.  In some cases (but nowhere near all) this was happening anyways; the virus just sped it up.  I estimate 50% of all brick and mortal clothing retailers, 50% of all airlines, 75% of all movie theaters, 50% of all hotels, 100% of all cruise ship companies, 75% of all bars, and 50% of all sit down restaurants will go out of business.  All the people who worked for those places will be out of work, not spending money at the places that are left.  The magnitude of this will vary a bit depending on the virus, but probably the majority of these bankruptcies will happen in the next few months; too soon for a vaccine to be available even on the most generous timeline.  There will be some new businesses formed; maybe one for every ten that close.

Net result is double digit unemployment until there's a vaccine (max tw ...



Not until Boomers die out.
 
2020-05-18 4:32:35 PM  

Jim_Callahan: Mitch Taylor's Bro: I think this is the real takeaway:

"When the Depression, well, when the crash happened and all that, the financial system really failed," Powell said. "Here, our financial system is strong."

This depression has nothing to do with the economy. It's 100% caused and controlled by the virus. When we solve the virus, we solve the depression. We need to keep things going until then.

If your "real takeaway" is that the current financial system, which crashed catastrophically about a decade ago and then wasn't patched, fixed, or modified even a tiny bit in any way, which was already in a recession in mid-2018 and the entirety of 2019 by every metric related to the actual health of the economy (there is a reason you never heard the administration ever talk about anything but one single mostly unrelated metric, the stock market; bringing up any of the actual metrics used to evaluate economic health paints a pretty farking clear picture), is "healthy" and "succeeding"... you fail to understand shiat a lot more basic than basic economics.

Like... you have to almost lack object permanence to think something that stupid.  I'm not even sure that's a metaphor: you seem to literally lack the mental ability developed by most human infants in their first year to understand that if something exists, and nothing is done do change it, it's probably still there even if you're willfully avoiding looking in that direction.

Also, did you like, never go outside even prior to the plague?  Because there have been three farking Trumpvilles with homeless populations of a hundred or more within walking distance of my apartment since early 2018, so all you need to work this out if you're ever anywhere near actual civilization is eyes.


A large part of what makes the Republican/"libertarian" worldview possible is deliberately not looking at things that might disprove their beliefs.
 
2020-05-18 4:35:19 PM  
To be fair, Trump is always pushing for his numbers to be the highest ever.
 
2020-05-18 4:36:04 PM  

Klarth: 25% should be nothing. According to Trump, in 2016 we were at 42%!
https://www.marketplace.org/2016/08/04​/trump-doubts-government-reports-low-u​nemployment/


Heh.. jokes aside, i'm curious if the article / Fed is speaking to any particular part of the unemployment index. If i remember right, the GOP always uses U6 even though serious economists don't bother with that.
 
2020-05-18 4:38:45 PM  

Smelly Pirate Hooker: Let's see what The Onion has to say about this:

https://www.theonion.com/stocks-rally-​on-hope-for-coronavirus-vaccine-184352​5663

LOL, as always, The Onion is more accurate than most actual news disseminators.


Has there ever been an investigation as to who the people were who 30+ years ago posed for pictures as the "people on the street" in the Onion quotes?
 
2020-05-18 4:56:30 PM  

Action Replay Nick: Roughly 11% of the US population has successfully applied for unemployment. Thats a) workforce-able people who b) met the requirements to file and c) bothered to file and d) had their claim received.

Taking all those caveats into consideration just for unemployment claims, we are probably at or above the Great Depression already.


Yup. If you don't search for work you're not counted. There are likely to be a lot of people who either haven't been searching for work once they got let go or have stopped.

My wife and I have discussed this, and if I do get laid off we're going to dip in to savings and try to go for at least something like 4-6 months on just her salary. For one thing, no one is hiring in my industry. It's all hiring freezes everywhere. The main reason though is the issue we all are self-isolating for HAS NOT BEEN FIXED. The virus is still a real threat, and neither my wife or myself wants to kill the other with a virus we picked up accidentally earning crap wages for some American oligarch who couldn't give a shiat if we die so long as they keep getting richer. If we can buy ourselves a few extra months we have better chances of treatments having been discovered.

Like you, I believe we're already in another great depression like downturn.
 
2020-05-18 5:01:35 PM  

Peter Weyland: Smelly Pirate Hooker: Let's see what The Onion has to say about this:

https://www.theonion.com/stocks-rally-​on-hope-for-coronavirus-vaccine-184352​5663

LOL, as always, The Onion is more accurate than most actual news disseminators.

Has there ever been an investigation as to who the people were who 30+ years ago posed for pictures as the "people on the street" in the Onion quotes?


I have no idea. I think the fact that they're always the same people and their job descriptions get more and more ridiculous is part of the joke.
 
2020-05-18 5:24:24 PM  

special20: Mitch Taylor's Bro: I think this is the real takeaway:

"When the Depression, well, when the crash happened and all that, the financial system really failed," Powell said. "Here, our financial system is strong."

This depression has nothing to do with the economy. It's 100% caused and controlled by the virus. When we solve the virus, we solve the depression. We need to keep things going until then.

[Fark user image 501x336]


What makes you think I support our current president? I can rarely even stomach typing or saying his name.

Xai: Mitch Taylor's Bro: I think this is the real takeaway:

"When the Depression, well, when the crash happened and all that, the financial system really failed," Powell said. "Here, our financial system is strong."

This depression has nothing to do with the economy. It's 100% caused and controlled by the virus. When we solve the virus, we solve the depression. We need to keep things going until then.

BS and it's easy to see why.

Look to europe, they have had harder and harsher lockdowns, they have been hit just as hard as the US if not harder.

Take the UK as an example, they are at 4% unemployment, up from 3.8%, expected to peak at 10%.
Compare that to the USA, currently 14.7% unemployment, up from 3.5% in feb, expected to peak at 25%.

This is mismanagement by the government, not the virus alone.


No argument there, but we're talking about what the Fed chair said. He can only print the money we need. How it gets allocated is up to our legislators and the executive branch (which is a big pile of fail, but that's not Powell's fault).

Subtonic: So when the shiat hits the fan, a democrat will come in and fix it just in time for another republican to get into office during an economic upturn. Again


That does seem to be the pattern over the last... 40? 50 years?

HotWingConspiracy: Mitch Taylor's Bro: I didn't say the solution would be instantaneous. I did say we need to keep things going until then. Regrettably, that means bailing out large industries like travel and hospitality.

Why does it mean that? How much money are we going to throw at businesses that have no shot of recovering any time soon? Why can't their investors just take the L and not insulate themselves with your money?


I think if multiple "too big to fail" companies in an industry declare bankruptcy, that would be bad for consumers in the long run because it would lead to consolidation, reduced consumer choice and higher prices. But that's just, like, my opinion. How would things work in your scenario?

red230: We've been inflating the stock market by giving large corporations huge tax cuts over the last three years. We've been cutting taxes where we should have been raising them. Trump has tied his presidency to the stock market (which is completely divested from the economic reality that the vast majority of Americans live in) and he is desperate that the bubble that he pushed for doesn't pop before the November elections. He's rapidly getting to the "Turn those machines back on" panic when he realizes that the stock market is going to go bust once nobody has any money to spend because they're unemployed. His only hope is to push out trillions of dollars to the American poor and middle classes to keep everything afloat for a few more months and we all know how Republicans feel about money that doesn't go to the rich.


Yup, yet that'd be the thing that would also curry favor among the "undecideds" and probably seal re-election for him. So, in true Obama-meme fashion, "please, proceed" might be bad in the near-term, but good in the long-term?

Pernicious Q. Varmint: We had inverted yields on bonds around a year ago, IIRC. That's a leading indicator of a drop in the market. Also prior to the collapse price/earnings ratios were way out of whack for a large number of companies. Anyone paying attention knew there was going to be at minimum a big correction if not a recession. The virus might be the difference between recession and depression, but that's all. Trump knew damn well the market was over-inflated but he hoped he could hold off the correction until after the election.

His only hope is to pour money into the hands of people who will spend it immediately, i.e. - the poor and working class. Senate Republicans will never let that happen. Handouts are for the rich and connected, not those people.


Agreed, but do you think if all the factors leading to a correction were mixed in with all of the factors caused by the virus into one huge problem, which was then solved by science, we'd return to "post-correction" levels instead of where the stock market was in, say, mid-February? I think it's possible we'd have a stealth correction that looks like, "oh, the coronavirus did all of that to the stock market."

Program User: So yet again we have to socialize the risk in order to protect capitalism from the evils of socialism.

Screw that. Let them go broke. I guarantee that when demand returns, there'll be another capitalist there to supply whatever it is consumers want. Nothing wrong with seeding a new, different batch of rich folks along the way.

If the current rich are so deserving, they'll be part of that new group of wealthy people anyway. No point in going further into debt to set up what is inevitable already.

Or we can use this opportunity to inject a healthy dose of "common good" back into the national culture. To remember and respect one of the founding principles of this nation.


I'm not sure it would play out that way. I think industry consolidation is more likely. "Hey, instead of declaring bankruptcy, we're going to merge with/get acquired by our largest competitor." How would the Fed chair seed a different batch of rich people?

Geotpf: Yes and no.

The economy won't fully recover until there's a 100% (or at least very close) effective vaccine that is cheap, easy to get, and has no side serious effects.

This could take six months.

This could take 12 months.

This could take 18 months.

This could take three years.

This could take five years.

This could never happen.

Now, the longer it takes, the more accepting we will be having a half a million people a year or so drop dead from this thing in the US alone (it's only really been circulating in the US for a little more than two months with 90k dead so far). But without a vaccine (or, alternatively, effective treatment for most people who otherwise would die from it), the economy won't fully recover.

Then, there's the re-aligning of the economy. In some cases (but nowhere near all) this was happening anyways; the virus just sped it up. I estimate 50% of all brick and mortal clothing retailers, 50% of all airlines, 75% of all movie theaters, 50% of all hotels, 100% of all cruise ship companies, 75% of all bars, and 50% of all sit down restaurants will go out of business. All the people who worked for those places will be out of work, not spending money at the places that are left. The magnitude of this will vary a bit depending on the virus, but probably the majority of these bankruptcies will happen in the next few months; too soon for a vaccine to be available even on the most generous timeline. There will be some new businesses formed; maybe one for every ten that close.

Net result is double digit unemployment until there's a vaccine (max two years), followed by a very slow decline to 9.5%, 9%, 8.5%, etc.

I hope I'm overly pessimistic.


I think you've done a better job of analyzing the situation than I have. And I agree with what you've written. Until we get to a vaccine, we have to keep printing money (which is all Powell can do) and hopefully giving it to the people who need it most. Yes, a lot of it will go to the rich and large corporations. But if enough of it gets to people whose unemployment was caused by the pandemic, it'll also help those whose livelihoods were in decline before the pandemic.

Jim_Callahan: Mitch Taylor's Bro: I think this is the real takeaway:

"When the Depression, well, when the crash happened and all that, the financial system really failed," Powell said. "Here, our financial system is strong."

This depression has nothing to do with the economy. It's 100% caused and controlled by the virus. When we solve the virus, we solve the depression. We need to keep things going until then.

If your "real takeaway" is that the current financial system, which crashed catastrophically about a decade ago and then wasn't patched, fixed, or modified even a tiny bit in any way, which was already in a recession in mid-2018 and the entirety of 2019 by every metric related to the actual health of the economy (there is a reason you never heard the administration ever talk about anything but one single mostly unrelated metric, the stock market; bringing up any of the actual metrics used to evaluate economic health paints a pretty farking clear picture), is "healthy" and "succeeding"... you fail to understand shiat a lot more basic than basic economics.

Like... you have to almost lack object permanence to think something that stupid.  I'm not even sure that's a metaphor: you seem to literally lack the mental ability developed by most human infants in their first year to understand that if something exists, and nothing is done do change it, it's probably still there even if you're willfully avoiding looking in that direction.

Also, did you like, never go outside even prior to the plague?  Because there have been three farking Trumpvilles with homeless populations of a hundred or more within walking distance of my apartment since early 2018, so all you need to work this out if you're ever anywhere near actual civilization is eyes.


I'm agreeing with the Fed chair's assessment of the economy, even though there are no fewer than six people living in vehicles on the street behind my condo complex. But if ad hominem attacks make you happy, well, I'm glad I made you a little happier.

Tad_Waxpole: Mitch Taylor's Bro: It's 100% caused and controlled by the virus our gross over-reaction to the virus.


The virus is still out there and we know how bad subsequent waves can be based on numbers from the Spanish Flu pandemic 100 or so years ago. So, it's a little too early to say for sure. History may show that we did not react strongly enough. I seriously doubt history will show that we did exactly as we should have. Hindsight has the advantage of knowing what we didn't know then. I know that my county was one of the earliest to issue shelter-in-place orders and while we were once the "hotspot" in California, we are now seeing around 20-40 new cases per day and have 2,453 cases total out of a population of ~1.7 million. I think we did the right thing in shutting things down early and being very slow to re-open things. YMMV

Smelly Pirate Hooker: A large part of what makes the Republican/"libertarian" worldview possible is deliberately not looking at things that might disprove their beliefs.

Ex

-Republican, thanks :-)

But prior to the pandemic, unemployment was low, consumer confidence was high and I think we were making progress toward addressing some of the living wage issues. I mean, how many municipalities and states had already increased their minimum wages in the last ten years to $15/hr? Homelessness is related to unemployment, but I think healthcare costs and the lack of a reliable safety net contributed to that problem more than "the economy."

So, suppose the economy wasn't as strong as we think it was prior to the pandemic. What would you have the Fed chair do differently?
 
Xai [TotalFark]
2020-05-18 5:33:39 PM  

Mitch Taylor's Bro: Xai: Mitch Taylor's Bro: I think this is the real takeaway:

"When the Depression, well, when the crash happened and all that, the financial system really failed," Powell said. "Here, our financial system is strong."

This depression has nothing to do with the economy. It's 100% caused and controlled by the virus. When we solve the virus, we solve the depression. We need to keep things going until then.

BS and it's easy to see why.

Look to europe, they have had harder and harsher lockdowns, they have been hit just as hard as the US if not harder.

Take the UK as an example, they are at 4% unemployment, up from 3.8%, expected to peak at 10%.
Compare that to the USA, currently 14.7% unemployment, up from 3.5% in feb, expected to peak at 25%.

This is mismanagement by the government, not the virus alone.


No argument there, but we're talking about what the Fed chair said. He can only print the money we need. How it gets allocated is up to our legislators and the executive branch (which is a big pile of fail, but that's not Powell's fault).


The point of this exchange was that you said when we solve the virus we solve the depression, my point is that solving the virus won't undo the mismanagement and so it won't end the depression.

It's pretty obvious when you think about it, the large businesses will be able to weather the storm thanks to prudent action by the fed. This is clearly a prospect shared by wall st. The problem is that wall st isn't the key concern for most average Americans, and that pain will continue as people who have lost their jobs won't be able to spend in local businesses. more businesses will go under, costing more jobs and again that means less into local economies.
It didn't have to be this way - take the UK, they are paying wages of workers who are temporarily not needed, when this all ends there will be some still not needed, but those will be far, far fewer (hence the projections) and because everyone has kept their pay through the virus, they have kept up spending and can continue to spend after this is all over.

The mismanagement is America's problem, not the virus.
 
2020-05-18 5:34:04 PM  

Tad_Waxpole: Mitch Taylor's Bro: It's 100% caused and controlled by the virus our gross over-reaction to the virus. Decades of Republican policy/laissez-faire capitalism in general.


FTFY. Those are why our social safety net is a pathetic joke. They're why workers don't have guaranteed sick leave. They're why there are tens of millions of people who refused to take precautions because they are openly hostile to science. They're why our government has been more interested in grifting than actually helping people in a crisis.

Thanks to Reaganite Republicans, America's economy is built around massive short-term profits at the expense of long-term stability. The longer you neglect stability, the easier it is to knock the whole thing over. A collapse was inevitable; if it wasn't COVID, it'd be some bubble bursting, or some massive white-collar scheme falling apart, or any number of other factors.
 
2020-05-18 5:49:58 PM  

Xai: Mitch Taylor's Bro: Xai: Mitch Taylor's Bro: I think this is the real takeaway:

"When the Depression, well, when the crash happened and all that, the financial system really failed," Powell said. "Here, our financial system is strong."

This depression has nothing to do with the economy. It's 100% caused and controlled by the virus. When we solve the virus, we solve the depression. We need to keep things going until then.

BS and it's easy to see why.

Look to europe, they have had harder and harsher lockdowns, they have been hit just as hard as the US if not harder.

Take the UK as an example, they are at 4% unemployment, up from 3.8%, expected to peak at 10%.
Compare that to the USA, currently 14.7% unemployment, up from 3.5% in feb, expected to peak at 25%.

This is mismanagement by the government, not the virus alone.


No argument there, but we're talking about what the Fed chair said. He can only print the money we need. How it gets allocated is up to our legislators and the executive branch (which is a big pile of fail, but that's not Powell's fault).

The point of this exchange was that you said when we solve the virus we solve the depression, my point is that solving the virus won't undo the mismanagement and so it won't end the depression.

It's pretty obvious when you think about it, the large businesses will be able to weather the storm thanks to prudent action by the fed. This is clearly a prospect shared by wall st. The problem is that wall st isn't the key concern for most average Americans, and that pain will continue as people who have lost their jobs won't be able to spend in local businesses. more businesses will go under, costing more jobs and again that means less into local economies.
It didn't have to be this way - take the UK, they are paying wages of workers who are temporarily not needed, when this all ends there will be some still not needed, but those will be far, far fewer (hence the projections) and because everyone has kept their pay ...


Fair enough. Handling the virus marks the beginning of the end of the depression. What we do after that will determine when we see the actual end of the depression. I'm hoping that we'll have a new administration inside of a year, which might reduce the mismanagement a little bit.
 
2020-05-18 5:55:09 PM  
Could?
 
2020-05-18 6:17:27 PM  

Mitch Taylor's Bro: I think this is the real takeaway:

"When the Depression, well, when the crash happened and all that, the financial system really failed," Powell said. "Here, our financial system is strong."

This depression has nothing to do with the economy. It's 100% caused and controlled by the virus. When we solve the virus, we solve the depression. We need to keep things going until then.


Unfortunately, the people who stole literally ALL the money are now the only ones who can afford to keep it going until then.  And they really, REALLY want to believe that their world and ours are separate, even though they aren't.  They think they can let us starve or dieof pneumonia en masse and everything will continue to be fine for them without dipping into their precious pocket change.
 
2020-05-18 6:25:38 PM  

special20: I have a issues with that picture.  trumps fat butt was never that small and the trump supporter's face should have been buried deep inside the flabby flaps trump calls his bums.

Well, you asked for it...
[Fark user image 501x498]
Sorry about that, everybody else.


Can't write that I really asked for it, but - credit where credit is due - your new picture is a more accurate depiction.  I'm guessing you downloaded that image from some MAGAt porn site.  I'm sure that image sent several of the trump lovers on this site off to their bunks.
 
2020-05-18 6:36:28 PM  

Action Replay Nick: Roughly 11% of the US population has successfully applied for unemployment. Thats a) workforce-able people who b) met the requirements to file and c) bothered to file and d) had their claim received.

Taking all those caveats into consideration just for unemployment claims, we are probably at or above the Great Depression already.


See.  "Great" again.  Line for apologies starts to the right, libs.
 
2020-05-18 6:38:35 PM  

special20: jerryskid: special20:
[Fark user image 501x336]

I have a issues with that picture.  trumps fat butt was never that small and the trump supporter's face should have been buried deep inside the flabby flaps trump calls his bums.

trump pandemic.
trump recession.
trump depression.
trump failure.

Well, you asked for it...
[Fark user image 501x498]
Sorry about that, everybody else.


It's gruesome, but accurate, like a surgery video.
 
2020-05-18 6:41:11 PM  

Mitch Taylor's Bro: But prior to the pandemic, unemployment was low, consumer confidence was high and I think we were making progress toward addressing some of the living wage issues. I mean, how many municipalities and states had already increased their minimum wages in the last ten years to $15/hr?


Wages have been pretty much stagnant for the last 20 years.
 
2020-05-18 7:13:31 PM  

TheOtherGuy: Mitch Taylor's Bro: I think this is the real takeaway:

"When the Depression, well, when the crash happened and all that, the financial system really failed," Powell said. "Here, our financial system is strong."

This depression has nothing to do with the economy. It's 100% caused and controlled by the virus. When we solve the virus, we solve the depression. We need to keep things going until then.

Unfortunately, the people who stole literally ALL the money are now the only ones who can afford to keep it going until then.  And they really, REALLY want to believe that their world and ours are separate, even though they aren't.  They think they can let us starve or dieof pneumonia en masse and everything will continue to be fine for them without dipping into their precious pocket change.


We're talking about what the Fed chair said, so he can print more money. Yes, rich people will get some. Hopefully, the people who really need it will, too.

Mugato: Mitch Taylor's Bro: But prior to the pandemic, unemployment was low, consumer confidence was high and I think we were making progress toward addressing some of the living wage issues. I mean, how many municipalities and states had already increased their minimum wages in the last ten years to $15/hr?

Wages have been pretty much stagnant for the last 20 years.


It's a pretty specific campaign that would only affect those earning minimum wage or close to it. Some companies are voluntarily raising their minimum wages.

Warning: slideshow. https://www.fool.com/slideshow/these-​2​1-companies-pay-15-minimum-wage-or-mor​e/
 
2020-05-18 8:04:43 PM  

Xai: Take the UK as an example, they are at 4% unemployment, up from 3.8%, expected to peak at 10%.
Compare that to the USA, currently 14.7% unemployment, up from 3.5% in feb, expected to peak at 25%.
This is mismanagement by the government, not the virus alone.


We have what I guess I'd call a really shallow economy. It doesn't take much to upset it.
But yeah--it's mismanagement by the government.
 
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