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(Sydney Morning Herald)   No it wasn't a Black Swan   (smh.com.au) divider line
    More: Stupid, Severe acute respiratory syndrome, Swan, Pandemic, Kevin Rudd, World Health Organisation, Scott Morrison, W. Bush, billionaire philanthropist Bill Gates  
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2804 clicks; posted to Politics » on 05 May 2020 at 8:19 AM (13 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2020-05-05 12:54:44 AM  
He specifically cited the danger posed by another coronavirus, H5N1 or "bird flu".

H5N1 isn't a coronavirus. It's an influenza virus.
 
2020-05-05 1:30:42 AM  
I thought a black swan was something that was pretty obviously possible but not supported by immediate circumstances. For instance people knew swans existed and that birds often had black feathers so the idea of a black swan wasn't really that outrageous. It wasn't the purple green one horned lightning breathing swan. Similarly people who scoffed at the idea of person computers being popular even after the first one was built or Blockbuster not realizing that online video streaming was the future. Things that really should have been apparent but only a small number of people at the time realized what was happening while the rest sat in ignorance.
 
2020-05-05 2:19:48 AM  

Anenu: I thought a black swan was something that was pretty obviously possible but not supported by immediate circumstances. For instance people knew swans existed and that birds often had black feathers so the idea of a black swan wasn't really that outrageous. It wasn't the purple green one horned lightning breathing swan. Similarly people who scoffed at the idea of person computers being popular even after the first one was built or Blockbuster not realizing that online video streaming was the future. Things that really should have been apparent but only a small number of people at the time realized what was happening while the rest sat in ignorance.


That's not a black swan.  THIS is a black swan [nsfw]:

Black Swan (Lesbian scene)
Youtube i1VHbJ1EF-0
 
2020-05-05 2:36:56 AM  

HighOnCraic: Anenu: I thought a black swan was something that was pretty obviously possible but not supported by immediate circumstances. For instance people knew swans existed and that birds often had black feathers so the idea of a black swan wasn't really that outrageous. It wasn't the purple green one horned lightning breathing swan. Similarly people who scoffed at the idea of person computers being popular even after the first one was built or Blockbuster not realizing that online video streaming was the future. Things that really should have been apparent but only a small number of people at the time realized what was happening while the rest sat in ignorance.

That's not a black swan.  THIS is a black swan [nsfw]:

[YouTube video: Black Swan (Lesbian scene)]


That's Black Swan???
Sweet f*ck me running!!
Apparently I've neglected to experience the, uhh, full body of the, umm, arts..
 
2020-05-05 4:42:17 AM  
The emergence might have been a Black Swan, but the oblivious Orange Blob made it infinitely worse.

"We have it totally under control. It's one person coming in from China, and we have it under control. It's going to be justfine." - Jan. 22

"We pretty much shut it down coming in fromChina." - Feb. 2

""Looks like by April, you know, in theory, when it gets a little warmer, it miraculously goes away." Feb. 10

"The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA." - Feb. 24

"...it will go away. Just stay calm. It will goaway." - Mar. 10
 
2020-05-05 6:09:30 AM  
thank you subby for the headline. Also noting that the Sydney Morning Herald is a real shiat rag that makes the Daily Fail look merely incompetent.


/ The article is a complete loss, sinking into a sea writhing misinformation and contradictions.
 
2020-05-05 8:23:02 AM  
And this one hit during the Best Economy Of All Time, rather than during a recession.
 
2020-05-05 8:24:48 AM  
More of a Canada Goose
 
2020-05-05 8:27:38 AM  
The current potus is an incompetent jacka**, unfit for the office the Electoral College voted him into.
 
2020-05-05 8:27:44 AM  
It was a black swan for about 2 weeks in February. Then it was a crisis of leadership for about a month. Then it was a boondoggle for 3 weeks... And I still feel the worst is yet to come.
 
2020-05-05 8:36:36 AM  

Tr0mBoNe: It was a black swan for about 2 weeks in February. Then it was a crisis of leadership for about a month. Then it was a boondoggle for 3 weeks... And I still feel the worst is yet to come.


We might get to the rare 'turboclusterfark' within a week.
 
2020-05-05 8:39:01 AM  

Redh8t: HighOnCraic: Anenu: I thought a black swan was something that was pretty obviously possible but not supported by immediate circumstances. For instance people knew swans existed and that birds often had black feathers so the idea of a black swan wasn't really that outrageous. It wasn't the purple green one horned lightning breathing swan. Similarly people who scoffed at the idea of person computers being popular even after the first one was built or Blockbuster not realizing that online video streaming was the future. Things that really should have been apparent but only a small number of people at the time realized what was happening while the rest sat in ignorance.

That's not a black swan.  THIS is a black swan [nsfw]:

[YouTube video: Black Swan (Lesbian scene)]

That's Black Swan???
Sweet f*ck me running!!
Apparently I've neglected to experience the, uhh, full body of the, umm, arts..


This.  SO This.

Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-05-05 8:39:31 AM  
A Black Swan event would be something like unknown unknowns farking up the economy in unexpected ways.  Coronaviruses and pandemics are not unknown unknowns, they're low-frequency events.

But the Black Swan (B.S.) is a favorite of libertarian types.  It's the deus ex machina that retroactively saves their economic theories when laissez-faire fails. If you want to pretend that economies are natural, living systems that are best left to heal themselves and become more robust through countless microtraumas then you need some excuse when everything goes to shiat.

Attacking economists and businessmen and politicians for not preparing for worst case scenarios times ten is not an indictment of their ignorant blindness to probability, it's a byproduct of the very same capitalist system that will default to quarterly and annual profit rather than long term disaster preparedness.

So you don't get bridges or buildings or nuclear reactors built to withstand earthquakes that are far worse than anything experienced, you get those things at the budget that satisfies the most people, including inspectors and government agencies that strike a balance between safety and commerce.  The only way to mitigate that is through interference by earnest, non-corrupt government for the greater good rather than corporate profit.

This is what I want to say to Nassim Nicholas Taleb while listening to some of his snarkily delivered, venomous diatribes against everyone he's ever determined to be inferior due to their battlefield use of imperfect modeling that he presumes to be some kind of IQ test.
 
2020-05-05 8:40:26 AM  
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the main who coined the 'Black Swan' term, has already said it isn't.
 
2020-05-05 8:49:01 AM  
Trump Predictions

Feb 28: less than 20,000
April 21: 50,000-60,000
April 28: 60,000-70,000
May 4: 100,000
 
2020-05-05 8:49:33 AM  

HighOnCraic: That's not a black swan.  THIS is a black swan [nsfw]:


Fark is now my personal erotica site.
 
2020-05-05 8:50:05 AM  
It was only a Black Swan in the realm of Trump's extraordinary lack of imagination and purpose.
 
2020-05-05 8:50:15 AM  
A black swan is just a swan. It's a big deal just because of your narcissism and lack of being prepared.
 
2020-05-05 8:56:20 AM  

I Ate Shergar: He specifically cited the danger posed by another coronavirus, H5N1 or "bird flu".

H5N1 isn't a coronavirus. It's an influenza virus.


The comma is used to separate items in a list.

"He specifically cited the danger posed by another coronavirus, or H5N1.
 
2020-05-05 9:03:02 AM  

Anenu: For instance people knew swans existed and that birds often had black feathers so the idea of a black swan wasn't really that outrageous.


No.

It was explicitly used as an example of something that was not going to happen.

"Like purple cows and flying pigs, the black swan was a symbol of what was impossible. In medieval Europe, unicorns had more credibility."
 
2020-05-05 9:03:25 AM  
Depends on perspective, I suppose. If taken from the point of view that we knew about the contagion in late January and had the foresight to see shutdowns happening around the world in March, then you could see it as a White Swan - a preordained eventuality that you could plan for. However, I don't think many industries are agile enough to replan their entire businesses in just a few weeks, particularly for something as devastating as a state-mandated shutdown.
 
2020-05-05 9:11:41 AM  
It was only a black swan event to people who think pandemics have never happened before in the history of ever, and especially not from China.
 
2020-05-05 9:16:16 AM  
Someone referred to upcoming CV deaths as our generation's Pearl Harbor.  I read that a more accurate description was that this will be our Chernobyl.  And this administration has done it's damnedest to make that a reality.
 
2020-05-05 9:17:20 AM  

emtwo: I Ate Shergar: He specifically cited the danger posed by another coronavirus, H5N1 or "bird flu".

H5N1 isn't a coronavirus. It's an influenza virus.

The comma is used to separate items in a list.

"He specifically cited the danger posed by another coronavirus, or H5N1.


Not the way it's phrased. H5N1 is bird flu, so "H5N1 or 'bird flu'" is all one item. If this is a list, it should read "another coronavirus, or H5N1/'bird flu'" or something along those lines.
 
2020-05-05 9:19:01 AM  
Obama left a playbook of how to deal with this exact situation. It wasn't a black swan. An outbreak of a contagious and deadly virus was so known that movies have been made about it.
 
2020-05-05 9:19:27 AM  
Trump is the black swan -- the incredibly small possibility that an incompetent idiot achieves the presidency produces catastrophic consequences that no one wanted to anticipate.
 
2020-05-05 9:19:57 AM  
If not a Black Swan...

Was it one of Ivanka's "Fark me like the Coronavirus farked the economy, Daddy!"

I bet it was.
 
2020-05-05 9:48:09 AM  

I Ate Shergar: He specifically cited the danger posed by another coronavirus, H5N1 or "bird flu".

H5N1 isn't a coronavirus. It's an influenza virus.


Influenza is a coronavirus.
 
2020-05-05 9:51:42 AM  
Not a black swan event.  A black swan event is more than just something unusual that happens or happens differently before.  It is something nobody could imagine happening.  This was anticipated during H1N1 and SARS.  The extent of closures was surprising though.  People predicted just absenteeism and that people would only be contagious if they were sick.
 
2020-05-05 9:59:34 AM  

neaorin: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the main who coined the 'Black Swan' term, has already said it isn't.


Regardless of authorial intent, one of the topics that Taleb discussed in The Black Swan was the assumption by most prognosticators that a certain type of events (like financial market movements, or deaths from disease) follows a normal distribution, e.g. that an average epidemic from past years (SARS, swine flu etc) kills somewhere on the scale of 1,000 - 10,000 people when it happens. A black swan event in this context is something that occupies the "fat tail" of the distribution, and which has significant knock-on effects. I think this qualifies.

Another thing about Black Swan events is the sense of complacency, or the sense that "we're too smart" to let something like those events happen again, because we just look at recent history. And that, hey, nobody needs these government agencies that are supposed to oversee or intervene in these situations anymore.

I think the explanation that he gives in the video, that the mere fact that an event like this was bound to happen makes it NOT a black swan event, is kind of trivial. After all, devastating terrorist attacks and airliner hijackings have happened before, and financial markets have had serious disruptions before (economists have noted a lot of similarities between the 2008 crash and the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, which is easily within living memory). And if you recall from 2008/2009, dozens of people came out of the woodworks to clamor on CNBC about how they "predicted the financial crisis", some of whom haven't gotten a single thing right ever since but made enough on the one trade to live the rest of their lives out on their superyacht. The mere fact of prediction doesn't make or break a Black Swan, it's about whether that prediction is generally accepted.
 
2020-05-05 10:15:20 AM  

I Ate Shergar: emtwo: I Ate Shergar: He specifically cited the danger posed by another coronavirus, H5N1 or "bird flu".

H5N1 isn't a coronavirus. It's an influenza virus.

The comma is used to separate items in a list.

"He specifically cited the danger posed by another coronavirus, or H5N1.

Not the way it's phrased. H5N1 is bird flu, so "H5N1 or 'bird flu'" is all one item. If this is a list, it should read "another coronavirus, or H5N1/'bird flu'" or something along those lines.


I'd suggest using the sportsball/mobster convention:

"...another coronavirus, H5N1 ("Bird Flu")".
 
2020-05-05 10:23:36 AM  
And it's not the Black Plague either but as Mercutio said "it will serve"
 
2020-05-05 11:44:28 AM  
Perhaps it is kind of a Black Swan event if you look at South Korea.  Would that be the first time a deadly and highly contagious disease is quickly eliminated without a large loss of life or vaccination.
 
2020-05-05 1:20:03 PM  
Teach History in high school. Real History. Not about white men in tricorn hats. Instead, teach about Greeks and English and the world facing malaria. Teach about the Spanish conquest of the Americas. Teach about Vikings from Newfoundland to Baghdad. teach about Muslim medicine and how Europe took so long to catch up to their surgery and mathematics. I've seen 17 year olds listen to those lectures and say they had no idea that was what history was about, because all they got was fill-in-the-blank sheets about Fenian raids and the War of 1812. Fark that noise. Teach about why things are done the way they are done, and not because of some business that convinced people with ads, but because it is literally indispensable. Like, WHY REFIGERATORS? That question protects us from disease. WHY NOT BBQ EVERY DAY (why kitchens)? That question protects us from disease. WHY CLEAN THE BATHROOM WEEKLY? (Cholera). WHY NOT BOARDING/RESIDENTIAL SCHOOL? (Tuberculosis, genocide via disease everyone knows about). WHY QUARANTINE? (Black Plague, influenza). WHY SICKS DAYS? (Everything - just stay home). WHY MORE THAN MINIMUM WAGE? (So you can stay home for that sick week).

It wasn't a Black Swan. COVID is predictable and preventable and can be beat, but not if people don't understand how the basic stuff around them works. Basic like WHY OWN A CUTTING BOARD basic.
 
2020-05-05 2:45:15 PM  

Bennie Crabtree: Teach History in high school. Real History. Not about white men in tricorn hats. Instead, teach about Greeks and English and the world facing malaria. Teach about the Spanish conquest of the Americas. Teach about Vikings from Newfoundland to Baghdad. teach about Muslim medicine and how Europe took so long to catch up to their surgery and mathematics. I've seen 17 year olds listen to those lectures and say they had no idea that was what history was about, because all they got was fill-in-the-blank sheets about Fenian raids and the War of 1812. Fark that noise. Teach about why things are done the way they are done, and not because of some business that convinced people with ads, but because it is literally indispensable. Like, WHY REFIGERATORS? That question protects us from disease. WHY NOT BBQ EVERY DAY (why kitchens)? That question protects us from disease. WHY CLEAN THE BATHROOM WEEKLY? (Cholera). WHY NOT BOARDING/RESIDENTIAL SCHOOL? (Tuberculosis, genocide via disease everyone knows about). WHY QUARANTINE? (Black Plague, influenza). WHY SICKS DAYS? (Everything - just stay home). WHY MORE THAN MINIMUM WAGE? (So you can stay home for that sick week).

It wasn't a Black Swan. COVID is predictable and preventable and can be beat, but not if people don't understand how the basic stuff around them works. Basic like WHY OWN A CUTTING BOARD basic.


Challenge historical truisms like if the American Revolution really necessary and if Lincoln should have just let the Southern States secede
 
2020-05-05 4:46:21 PM  

emtwo: I Ate Shergar: He specifically cited the danger posed by another coronavirus, H5N1, or "bird flu".

H5N1 isn't a coronavirus. It's an influenza virus.

The comma is used to separate items in a list.

"He specifically cited the danger posed by another coronavirus or H5N1.


Oxford comma to the rescue!
 
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