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(Five Thirty-Eight)   Justin Amash could cause some trouble for Trump and Biden, plus he knows where Aleppo is   (fivethirtyeight.com) divider line
    More: Interesting, President of the United States, United States presidential election, 2008, Democratic Party, Joe Biden, Republican Party, Elections, Vice President of the United States, Election  
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1097 clicks; posted to Politics » on 04 May 2020 at 4:10 PM (8 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2020-05-04 3:12:58 PM  
"Last Tuesday, Michigan Rep. Justin Amash, who left the Republican Party nine months ago and became an independent, announced he would run for president as a Libertarian."

Why are people freaking out about this? It isn't like he is going to threaten Democratic voters. If anything, he could skim a few Republican voters.
 
2020-05-04 3:18:09 PM  
He voted for Ron Paul; he's not taking man votes from Biden anyway.  He's in the Lyndon LaRouche school of how to sound like he prefers warlords and gangsters to reasonable people.
 
2020-05-04 3:21:49 PM  

Porkbelly: He voted for Ron Paul; he's not taking man votes from Biden anyway.  He's in the Lyndon LaRouche school of how to sound like he prefers warlords and gangsters to reasonable people.


Ah yes, Justin Amash (R,I - Reelect Incumbent) may not take many man votes, but his sex appeal is undeniable.
 
2020-05-04 3:26:45 PM  

Nadie_AZ: "Last Tuesday, Michigan Rep. Justin Amash, who left the Republican Party nine months ago and became an independent, announced he would run for president as a Libertarian."

Why are people freaking out about this? It isn't like he is going to threaten Democratic voters. If anything, he could skim a few Republican voters.


Because Michigan is a swing state

Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-05-04 3:37:03 PM  
So if Gary wasn't running, do you really think they'd have pulled the lever for Hillary?
 
2020-05-04 3:51:22 PM  

Nadie_AZ: So if Gary wasn't running, do you really think they'd have pulled the lever for Hillary?


Jill hurt worse, but many of Gary's voters nationwide were Never Trumpers. Or maybe they would have stayed home. Dunno. Maybe he thinks he can pull the 3%'ers away from Trump.
 
2020-05-04 4:11:57 PM  
I'm expecting to see a bunch of users tagged in "anti-anti-Trump orange"  show up and let us know that Amash is the progressive choice for president.
 
2020-05-04 4:13:11 PM  

VanillaEnvelope: I'm expecting to see a bunch of users tagged in "anti-anti-Trump orange"  show up and let us know that Amash is the progressive choice for president.


Then you'd be way off the mark.
 
2020-05-04 4:15:29 PM  

phrawgh: Porkbelly: He voted for Ron Paul; he's not taking man votes from Biden anyway.  He's in the Lyndon LaRouche school of how to sound like he prefers warlords and gangsters to reasonable people.

Ah yes, Justin Amash (R,I - Reelect Incumbent) may not take many man votes, but his sex appeal is undeniable.


Don't know what the heck happened to the y, I'm thinking it was Russians.
 
2020-05-04 4:17:08 PM  
See, I don't bow down to the Republicrats or the Democans.  I'm a Libertarian.  I approach each issue independently and evaluate each one impartially, and then I pick the Republican one.  I'm unique... like a snowflake.

I'm a loner, Dottie.  A rebel.
 
2020-05-04 4:17:48 PM  
Knows where Aleppo is?

Fark user imageView Full Size

This is relevant to my interests.
 
2020-05-04 4:18:16 PM  

GardenWeasel: Nadie_AZ: So if Gary wasn't running, do you really think they'd have pulled the lever for Hillary?

Jill hurt worse, but many of Gary's voters nationwide were Never Trumpers. Or maybe they would have stayed home. Dunno. Maybe he thinks he can pull the 3%'ers away from Trump.


Only because we didn't get the resulted we wanted (Hillary winning).

There were and still are many more Never Trumpers than Stein voters.

There's a myth that Stein voters are simply wayward liberals that just need to find their way into the outstretched arms of the Democratic Party, when most of them are simply political nihilists that wouldn't vote for a Democrat, period.

Regarding Amash - the best you could ever hope for a Republican is to be embarrassed enough with his/her party to vote L out of protest. They will never vote for a Democrat to save their lives, but will vote for a L in place of Trump to save their right wing cred. I suspect that is what Romney like R's will do this go around - give their vote to Amash rather than vote Trump.
 
2020-05-04 4:18:49 PM  

Nadie_AZ: "Last Tuesday, Michigan Rep. Justin Amash, who left the Republican Party nine months ago and became an independent, announced he would run for president as a Libertarian."

Why are people freaking out about this? It isn't like he is going to threaten Democratic voters. If anything, he could skim a few Republican voters.


If he runs it will be to attract Never Trumpers to the polls so the GOP can keep Congress even if Trump loses bigly.
 
2020-05-04 4:19:22 PM  

GardenWeasel: Nadie_AZ: So if Gary wasn't running, do you really think they'd have pulled the lever for Hillary?

Jill hurt worse, but many of Gary's voters nationwide were Never Trumpers. Or maybe they would have stayed home. Dunno. Maybe he thinks he can pull the 3%'ers away from Trump.


I do think there are some people who saw Johnson as an out so they didn't have to vote for Hillary.  There are friends of mine that found every reason why voting for Hillary was the lesser of two evils, knowing that Trump was talking about tinkledown economics and destroying healthcare.
 
2020-05-04 4:19:26 PM  
i.imgur.comView Full Size
 
2020-05-04 4:21:04 PM  
Either this dude is a total idiot, or he is trying to get back into the favor of the Tea Party by giving never Trump conservatives somewhere else to go besides Biden in order to help Trump.
 
2020-05-04 4:21:12 PM  
He's gonna ear worm his way to the presidency by doing the mash
 
2020-05-04 4:24:36 PM  

Nadie_AZ: "Last Tuesday, Michigan Rep. Justin Amash, who left the Republican Party nine months ago and became an independent, announced he would run for president as a Libertarian."

Why are people freaking out about this? It isn't like he is going to threaten Democratic voters. If anything, he could skim a few Republican voters.


Because mathematically, every vote that isn't for the person most likely to beat your least favorite candidate is a vote for your least favorite candidate.

Let's say we've got a nice and easy number to work with, 20 votes.

There are 10 people who are for candidate A, 8 who are for candidate B, and 4 that are for anyone except A. In this scenario, candidate B wins.

Enter candidate C, who is politically closer to A than B. C has no chance of winning the contest. However, because he presents a viable alternative to B, if 3 of the "Never A" voters go for C, A will win anyway.

It is extremely difficult to construct a scenario in which adding a 3rd candidate does not make the unfavorable outcome (the one in which the swing voters see their worst case scenario realized) more likely. This is not true for all voting systems, but it is specifically true for the American Presidential election.
 
2020-05-04 4:26:19 PM  

Nadie_AZ: Why are people freaking out about this? It isn't like he is going to threaten Democratic voters.


He might threaten Biden voters, though.
 
2020-05-04 4:28:14 PM  
2.bp.blogspot.comView Full Size

I couldsh voth forth Amath, if I wath thumb.
 
2020-05-04 4:32:49 PM  

Rapmaster2000: See, I don't bow down to the Republicrats or the Democans.  I'm a Libertarian.  I approach each issue independently and evaluate each one impartially, and then I pick the Republican one.  I'm unique... like a snowflake.

I'm a loner, Dottie.  A rebel.


One of the great gifts of the Politics Tab existing in a hypocritical echo chamber is that I get to see somebody who turns off National Public Radio because he believes it to be too conservative make such comments.
 
2020-05-04 4:35:28 PM  

The Negro Community: Nadie_AZ: "Last Tuesday, Michigan Rep. Justin Amash, who left the Republican Party nine months ago and became an independent, announced he would run for president as a Libertarian."

Why are people freaking out about this? It isn't like he is going to threaten Democratic voters. If anything, he could skim a few Republican voters.

Because mathematically, every vote that isn't for the person most likely to beat your least favorite candidate is a vote for your least favorite candidate.

Let's say we've got a nice and easy number to work with, 20 votes.

There are 10 people who are for candidate A, 8 who are for candidate B, and 4 that are for anyone except A. In this scenario, candidate B wins.

Enter candidate C, who is politically closer to A than B. C has no chance of winning the contest. However, because he presents a viable alternative to B, if 3 of the "Never A" voters go for C, A will win anyway.

It is extremely difficult to construct a scenario in which adding a 3rd candidate does not make the unfavorable outcome (the one in which the swing voters see their worst case scenario realized) more likely. This is not true for all voting systems, but it is specifically true for the American Presidential election.


Not really.

Continuing with your mathematical scenario, there's 100 people total, 50 liberals and 50 conservatives. 90% of each are pot committed to the D/R, so 45-45, leaving 5 on each side. The 5 liberals all decide to vote for Biden, as there's no real "liberal" alternative. The 5 conservatives don't want to vote for Trump, but they sure as hell ain't voting for a Democrat. Amash gives them an out of sorts, as he's giving them all the right wing policy they like, but without the embarrassment of having to support Trump. Three go to Amash, and two suck it up for Trump. Net result is 50-47-3 Biden.
 
2020-05-04 4:41:19 PM  

JAGChem82: VanillaEnvelope: I'm expecting to see a bunch of users tagged in "anti-anti-Trump orange"  show up and let us know that Amash is the progressive choice for president.

Then you'd be way off the mark.


Wait for it...
 
2020-05-04 4:43:11 PM  
Living in Michigan, I think it is more likely he would pull votes from Never Trumpers who were going to vote Biden in this critical swing state. If he was serious about defeating Trump, he would endorse Biden and I am not really a Biden fan.
 
2020-05-04 4:50:41 PM  

Flarn: Living in Michigan, I think it is more likely he would pull votes from Never Trumpers who were going to vote Biden in this critical swing state. If he was serious about defeating Trump, he would endorse Biden and I am not really a Biden fan.


Why would he (Amash) endorse Biden?

Amash is still far to the right as a politician and his beliefs. Just because he has some principles and isn't just a Trump toady, doesn't mean he's going to hop on Team Donkey as the "enemy of my enemy is my friend".
 
2020-05-04 4:50:42 PM  
Libertarians are selfish little assholes, but I'd rather they throw away their votes than cast in with Scalpatine.
 
2020-05-04 4:56:32 PM  
Aleppo? Isn't he the Marx Brother nobody liked?
 
2020-05-04 5:03:45 PM  
I was going to hold my nose and vote for Biden... I think this deserves more consideration.
 
2020-05-04 5:07:35 PM  

Porkbelly: phrawgh: Porkbelly: He voted for Ron Paul; he's not taking man votes from Biden anyway.  He's in the Lyndon LaRouche school of how to sound like he prefers warlords and gangsters to reasonable people.

Ah yes, Justin Amash (R,I - Reelect Incumbent) may not take many man votes, but his sex appeal is undeniable.

Don't know what the heck happened to the y, I'm thinking it was Russians.


It must have got caught in the perjury trap.

/anyhoo, this is Fark, where typos are fun
 
2020-05-04 5:11:12 PM  

UNC_Samurai: Libertarians are selfish little assholes, but I'd rather they throw away their votes than cast in with Scalpatine.


libertarians have the only 3rd party to score 3% and pre-qualify for 2020

for all the craziness etc they have an actual functioning party on a national level.

But people vote Libertarian for 3 reasons. 1) Weed 2) Taxes 3) To help get a 3rd party option to the current 2 party system even if they think a lot of the people are nuts

DNC could undercut t#1 pretty easily by just stating straight out we will legalize at the national level.
 
2020-05-04 5:19:57 PM  

kindms: UNC_Samurai: Libertarians are selfish little assholes, but I'd rather they throw away their votes than cast in with Scalpatine.

libertarians have the only 3rd party to score 3% and pre-qualify for 2020

for all the craziness etc they have an actual functioning party on a national level.

But people vote Libertarian for 3 reasons. 1) Weed 2) Taxes 3) To help get a 3rd party option to the current 2 party system even if they think a lot of the people are nuts

DNC could undercut t#1 pretty easily by just stating straight out we will legalize at the national level.


This. I think Libertarians are simply embarrassed Republicans, but sometimes I wish D's had some balls to adapt their somewhat useful stances and run with them.

They could easily legalize/decriminalize MJ at the federal at the swoop of a hat, but they'd get scared that R's would label them as stoners and druggies.
 
2020-05-04 5:21:17 PM  

Nadie_AZ: "Last Tuesday, Michigan Rep. Justin Amash, who left the Republican Party nine months ago and became an independent, announced he would run for president as a Libertarian."

Why are people freaking out about this? It isn't like he is going to threaten Democratic voters. If anything, he could skim a few Republican voters.


The only true Democrats I know are black folks like me.

The rest of you "Dems" base your voting criteria on whether you can have a beer with the President, or whether or not he or she is "likeable."

You sit there and trip over a politicians corporate connections, as if we could ever have a President who can run for office without a lot of money. Honey, if the lesser of two evils has at least made an effort to provide some social programs for me and my people, I'll scratch their name on my ballot. It's always been that way for me and my people. This virus is going to teach some of y'all that the hard way.

If you picky white folks and "progressives" bring us down again over some "purity" bullshiat , rednecks with guns won't be the only muthafarkers you'll be looking over your shoulder for. Desperate times call for desperate measures. Win the battles, lose the war.
 
2020-05-04 5:34:32 PM  

BlackChickWhiteAccent: Nadie_AZ: "Last Tuesday, Michigan Rep. Justin Amash, who left the Republican Party nine months ago and became an independent, announced he would run for president as a Libertarian."

Why are people freaking out about this? It isn't like he is going to threaten Democratic voters. If anything, he could skim a few Republican voters.

The only true Democrats I know are black folks like me.

The rest of you "Dems" base your voting criteria on whether you can have a beer with the President, or whether or not he or she is "likeable."

You sit there and trip over a politicians corporate connections, as if we could ever have a President who can run for office without a lot of money. Honey, if the lesser of two evils has at least made an effort to provide some social programs for me and my people, I'll scratch their name on my ballot. It's always been that way for me and my people. This virus is going to teach some of y'all that the hard way.

If you picky white folks and "progressives" bring us down again over some "purity" bullshiat , rednecks with guns won't be the only muthafarkers you'll be looking over your shoulder for. Desperate times call for desperate measures. Win the battles, lose the war.


I can assure you, that as a black man, we don't have the guns to "aim" at white progressives. Our political leadership wouldn't sully their hands with a gun, as a good chunk of them believe that guns are tools of white supremacy. Otherwise, the NAACP would be more strapped than the NRA.
 
2020-05-04 5:35:19 PM  
I feel like this author had to twist pretty hard to make this equally hazardous for both parties.  He definitely touches on the fact that a Libertarian candidate is more likely to pull votes from the Republicans, sure.  But one of his worst scenarios against Biden simply has him losing tear-away votes from the Republicans to Amash--but that doesn't so much harm Biden as it just helps him less than it would if those votes went to him.  Fewer votes for a Republican, if they're coming from Republican voters, is still good for Biden, even if those votes aren't going to him.
 
2020-05-04 5:42:54 PM  
Best case, we get someone who can whittle Trump down to his persistent 30-40% by appealing to the Republican voters who are closer to Bush Jr. than Bachman on the Republican spectrum, with the presence required to have significant weight as a third-party candidate, and everyone else remembers at least all this hokey horseshiat from the past few months and is incredibly farking inspired to get out and vote to put that 30-40% back in the basement never to be heard from again.

If we don't have record turnout at least from absentee ballots, I'm moving to Antarctica and living off a diet of krill and shoggoths.
 
2020-05-04 5:43:17 PM  
So you were PO'd about all those (nearly) unanimously passed bailouts that wound up with the banks and big shots again taking a nice fat piece of the action?

Bernie voted for it.
Liz voted for it.
Trump signed it.
Biden supported it.

So much for your worship-figures, whoever they may be.  It was crunch time, and they tossed you some crumbs.

Amash, on the other hand, was one of a tiny handful who opposed (along with AOC, it should be noted), saying that if this was how Congress was going to roll then there should be more in direct payments to individuals and a lot less for the middlemen.
 
2020-05-04 6:02:15 PM  

BlackChickWhiteAccent: Nadie_AZ: "Last Tuesday, Michigan Rep. Justin Amash, who left the Republican Party nine months ago and became an independent, announced he would run for president as a Libertarian."

Why are people freaking out about this? It isn't like he is going to threaten Democratic voters. If anything, he could skim a few Republican voters.

The only true Democrats I know are black folks like me.

The rest of you "Dems" base your voting criteria on whether you can have a beer with the President, or whether or not he or she is "likeable."

You sit there and trip over a politicians corporate connections, as if we could ever have a President who can run for office without a lot of money. Honey, if the lesser of two evils has at least made an effort to provide some social programs for me and my people, I'll scratch their name on my ballot. It's always been that way for me and my people. This virus is going to teach some of y'all that the hard way.

If you picky white folks and "progressives" bring us down again over some "purity" bullshiat , rednecks with guns won't be the only muthafarkers you'll be looking over your shoulder for. Desperate times call for desperate measures. Win the battles, lose the war.


Um. Had you and yours ya know voted in 2016 like ya did in 2008 and again in 2012 we wouldn't be in this mess to begin with. But keep pointing fingers at "picky white folks" and progressives. Nice to toss in threats of violence as well.
 
2020-05-04 6:04:03 PM  

Nullav: put that 30-40% back in the basement never to be heard from again.


This is a core problem with political strategies. That 30-40% might lose this time -- which I'm all for -- but they don't go away and we will hear from them again. That's arguably how we got Trump in the first place. They're not a group I really understand or find easy to compromise with, by any means. But they don't disappear.
 
2020-05-04 6:15:42 PM  

BlackChickWhiteAccent: Nadie_AZ: "Last Tuesday, Michigan Rep. Justin Amash, who left the Republican Party nine months ago and became an independent, announced he would run for president as a Libertarian."

Why are people freaking out about this? It isn't like he is going to threaten Democratic voters. If anything, he could skim a few Republican voters.

The only true Democrats I know are black folks like me.

The rest of you "Dems" base your voting criteria on whether you can have a beer with the President, or whether or not he or she is "likeable."

You sit there and trip over a politicians corporate connections, as if we could ever have a President who can run for office without a lot of money. Honey, if the lesser of two evils has at least made an effort to provide some social programs for me and my people, I'll scratch their name on my ballot. It's always been that way for me and my people. This virus is going to teach some of y'all that the hard way.

If you picky white folks and "progressives" bring us down again over some "purity" bullshiat , rednecks with guns won't be the only muthafarkers you'll be looking over your shoulder for. Desperate times call for desperate measures. Win the battles, lose the war.


Nope.  I've been a true Democrat all my 69 years, except for 1979, when I registered as a republican in West Virginia so I could vote against Reagan twice.

I don't do "me and my people," I come from the school of "we all just difference shades of brown."

Also, back in 1970 I got to jam with Muddy Waters, playing harmonica.  He said I was really good.
 
2020-05-04 6:16:14 PM  
What is A Mash?
 
2020-05-04 6:32:59 PM  

Nadie_AZ: Why are people freaking out about this? It isn't like he is going to threaten Democratic voters. If anything, he could skim a few Republican voters.


It give Bernie dead-enders an "anti-establishment" candidate to vote for.  You know, because BSAB.
 
2020-05-04 6:40:09 PM  

iron de havilland: What is A Mash?


It's a mix of corn, sugar, water, and yeast...but that's not important right now.
 
2020-05-04 6:48:16 PM  

Harry Wagstaff: iron de havilland: What is A Mash?

It's a mix of corn, sugar, water, and yeast...but that's not important right now.


Kentuckian-like typing detected?

/For me, mash involves tatties, butter and cream or milk ;D
 
2020-05-04 7:04:29 PM  
I see we're still on our way to blaming third party voters if Biden loses, rather than spend a second on introspection.

But we just can't legalize weed. What are the Republicans who will never, ever vote for baby killing communists going to think?
 
2020-05-04 7:52:31 PM  

iron de havilland: Harry Wagstaff: iron de havilland: What is A Mash?

It's a mix of corn, sugar, water, and yeast...but that's not important right now.

Kentuckian-like typing detected?

/For me, mash involves tatties, butter and cream or milk ;D


Texas. Apparently my grandfather and great uncle did a little bit of making moonshine back in the day though.
 
2020-05-04 7:58:57 PM  

Sophont: I see we're still on our way to blaming third party voters if Biden loses, rather than spend a second on introspection.

But we just can't legalize weed. What are the Republicans who will never, ever vote for baby killing communists going to think?


I know it's a difficult concept for you to grasp, but weed isn't a top priority of most voters right now.
Getting someone in the Oval Office who won't sign off on keeping children in cages on American soil is a little more pressing than you not wanting to go into an "urban" neighborhood to score your drugs.
 
2020-05-04 9:16:05 PM  

stoli n coke: Sophont: I see we're still on our way to blaming third party voters if Biden loses, rather than spend a second on introspection.

But we just can't legalize weed. What are the Republicans who will never, ever vote for baby killing communists going to think?

I know it's a difficult concept for you to grasp, but weed isn't a top priority of most voters right now.
Getting someone in the Oval Office who won't sign off on keeping children in cages on American soil is a little more pressing than you not wanting to go into an "urban" neighborhood to score your drugs.


Well, both Republicans and Democrats kept kids in cages.  Voting for either is endorsing the practice.
 
2020-05-04 9:28:48 PM  

Wireless Joe: You know, because BSAB.


There are six trillion reasons of extremely recent vintage why that is exactly the case.
 
2020-05-04 11:12:35 PM  

GardenWeasel: Nadie_AZ: "Last Tuesday, Michigan Rep. Justin Amash, who left the Republican Party nine months ago and became an independent, announced he would run for president as a Libertarian."

Why are people freaking out about this? It isn't like he is going to threaten Democratic voters. If anything, he could skim a few Republican voters.

Because Michigan is a swing state

[Fark user image 587x480]


See you are making an assumption there - a very bad one.
Magical thinking: "If only those 172,136 voters had voted for Hillary instead of Libertarian" then Hillary would have won Michigan.
Reality: Most of those 172,136 voters - if there was no Libertarian candidate - would have voted for Trump because they sure as hell aren't voting Democrat.
Ironic Conclusion:  Libertarians peeled off most those 172,136 voters away from Trump and still thinks went to shiat.

If you are thinking "3rd party spoilers" that actually hurt Democrats to a degree, you should be looking at the Green Party.  Because it is mostly like this -

JAGChem82: I think Libertarians are simply embarrassed Republicans


No matter how you look at it - Libertarians might side with Democrats on a few issues, but they're FAR more comfortable with Republican leadership than Democratic leadership.  They'll still complain either way though while pretending to be better than both.

But all the same, it is very good to have Amash running.  He isn't going to win obviously.  But he can attract Republicans who (secretly) want Trump out - but who otherwise would probably hold their nose and vote Trump because they sure aren't voting Biden (or any Democrat ever).  The more Trump embarrasses them, the more they can be pulled away from him.  Amash can be someone they are actually comfortable voting for.
 
2020-05-04 11:17:49 PM  

Wireless Joe: It give Bernie dead-enders an "anti-establishment" candidate to vote for. You know, because BSAB.


Where did you get such a stupid idea?  That's NEVER going to happen.  The policy preferences of Sanders are the direct opposite of Amash.  Like saying "Jesus lost the primary to Paul, so I'm voting for Satan."
 
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