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(CNN)   First Covid deaths in California occurred on February 6, 2020, way earlier than previously thought   (cnn.com) divider line
    More: Sad, San Francisco Bay Area, Santa Clara County, Common cold, COVID-19, test results, Death, health officials, first known COVID-19 fatality  
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1615 clicks; posted to Main » on 22 Apr 2020 at 8:21 AM (15 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2020-04-22 8:23:06 AM  
How much time passed after that to see noticable increased deaths?
 
2020-04-22 8:26:59 AM  
Who posted the links showing the Flu-like symptoms hospitalizations calming down before spiking right back up in Februrary again?
 
2020-04-22 8:27:30 AM  
Thanks Trump!
 
2020-04-22 8:29:05 AM  
From ABC News
April 22, 2020, 10:52 AM
The United States previously recorded its first official fatality from COVID-19 on Feb. 28 -- an individual in Washington state's King County.

However, health officials later discovered that two people at a Seattle-area nursing home had also died from the disease on Feb. 26.

Subby's Source
April 21, 2020 at 7:20 p.m
The individuals who were tested posthumously for COVID-19 died at home on February 6 and February 17.
 
2020-04-22 8:32:42 AM  
It will be interesting - one thing to note is that the distribution of the virus is far from equally spread.  New York State and New Jersey account for almost 50 percent of active cases - and there's a theory (yeah, not peer reviewed yet) that the strain in New York/New Jersey is the virulent Italian strain which is more far deadly.

I think there's an argument to be made that the whole class is being punished because of a few bad kids.

New York has 13,000 cases per million people and 1,000 deaths per million.

Oklahoma has 715 cases per million, and 42 deaths per million.

The fact is that you can't keep the whole country on lock-down forever, or the treatment becomes worse for people than the disease.

Even California, which comes in fourth on the list of total cases only has 35,000, and 915 cases per million and 34 deaths per million.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronav​i​rus/country/us/
 
2020-04-22 8:33:52 AM  
I was in Santa Clara county for a week Feb 8-15.  Feb 18, I was at my GP, flu like symptoms, unproductive, painful cough, felt like crap.  Flu swabs negative.  "Unidentified Viral Respiratory Infection" was the diagnosis.

/I got better
 
2020-04-22 8:35:10 AM  

KingBiefWhistle: Who posted the links showing the Flu-like symptoms hospitalizations calming down before spiking right back up in Februrary again?


Kinsa Insights fever reporting

Their graph only goes back to February 15th at this point, and doesn't have their "expected" fevers in February.

It's not exactly what you were looking for, but close.
 
2020-04-22 8:35:11 AM  
I'm not surprised. The early cases wouldn't have been recognized for what they were.
 
2020-04-22 8:36:12 AM  

OdradekRex: I was in Santa Clara county for a week Feb 8-15.  Feb 18, I was at my GP, flu like symptoms, unproductive, painful cough, felt like crap.  Flu swabs negative.  "Unidentified Viral Respiratory Infection" was the diagnosis.

/I got better


Are you going follow up with an antibody test?
 
2020-04-22 8:39:00 AM  

Another Government Employee: OdradekRex: I was in Santa Clara county for a week Feb 8-15.  Feb 18, I was at my GP, flu like symptoms, unproductive, painful cough, felt like crap.  Flu swabs negative.  "Unidentified Viral Respiratory Infection" was the diagnosis.

/I got better

Are you going follow up with an antibody test?


If they become available any time soon.  In the mean time, I'm the designated shopper and gofer for 4 households.  I figure I'm the safest choice, and it was long ago enough that I'm probably not contagious to others.
 
2020-04-22 8:39:22 AM  

Hachitori: The fact is that you can't keep the whole country on lock-down forever,


Good news!  No one has suggested that.
 
2020-04-22 8:40:07 AM  

Cdr.Murdock: I'm guessing that this was the European strain of the virus that would not have been prevented by Trump's xenophobic China travel ban..


Let's see: China had tens of thousands of cases when he imposed the travel ban and Italy had very few - yet it was xenophobic to stop travel from the country with a highly visible and growing crisis.

I was traveling in Italy on 15 February, and watching the news with everybody else. China had 68,500 cases.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronav​i​rus/country/china/

Italy had three cases

https://www.worldometers.info/coronav​i​rus/country/italy/


So, perhaps blocking Chinese travel didn't work out but it sure seemed like the smart thing to do at the time.....to call it xenophobic is well...

Completely farking stupid Using the benefit of hindsight.
 
2020-04-22 8:41:20 AM  
As sad as a death may be, this news might be good for the overall rate of spread numbers.  If it began earlier than we thought, and the numbers are starting to slow comparatively to other countries' time frame, it may be a positive sign.
 
2020-04-22 8:45:49 AM  
Ironically, the last Covid-18 death occurred on February 4th.  Not a lot of breathing room.  Almost, I say, almost a pun.  Breathing? Death by lungs filling with liquid?  You gotta keep your eye on the ball, eye ball!  Almost a funny there.
 
2020-04-22 8:48:02 AM  

Hachitori: Cdr.Murdock: I'm guessing that this was the European strain of the virus that would not have been prevented by Trump's xenophobic China travel ban..

Let's see: China had tens of thousands of cases when he imposed the travel ban and Italy had very few - yet it was xenophobic to stop travel from the country with a highly visible and growing crisis.

I was traveling in Italy on 15 February, and watching the news with everybody else. China had 68,500 cases.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavi​rus/country/china/

Italy had three cases

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavi​rus/country/italy/


So, perhaps blocking Chinese travel didn't work out but it sure seemed like the smart thing to do at the time.....to call it xenophobic is well...

Completely farking stupid Using the benefit of hindsight.


This is Fark.  Every move is the wrong move.
 
2020-04-22 8:48:05 AM  
The virus was already in north America in January, we just weren't looking for it.
 
2020-04-22 8:52:38 AM  

QFarker: The virus was already in north America in January, we just weren't looking for it.


As contagious as this is, and with as many asymptomatic cases as there appear to be, I have no doubt that this is true.
 
2020-04-22 8:55:41 AM  

Hachitori: It will be interesting - one thing to note is that the distribution of the virus is far from equally spread.  New York State and New Jersey account for almost 50 percent of active cases - and there's a theory (yeah, not peer reviewed yet) that the strain in New York/New Jersey is the virulent Italian strain which is more far deadly.

I think there's an argument to be made that the whole class is being punished because of a few bad kids.

New York has 13,000 cases per million people and 1,000 deaths per million.

Oklahoma has 715 cases per million, and 42 deaths per million.

The fact is that you can't keep the whole country on lock-down forever, or the treatment becomes worse for people than the disease.

Even California, which comes in fourth on the list of total cases only has 35,000, and 915 cases per million and 34 deaths per million.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavi​rus/country/us/


New York and New Jersey are actually testing for this thing. The population density here is more than almost anywhere else in the country.

You really can't reopen until you have sufficient testing apparatus in place, you have a significant contact tracing apparatus in place, and you have support systems in place for those who need to be quarantined (child care, food delivery, income replacement).

That isn't in place yet, so the ability to reopen things isn't there yet.

Population heat maps... How do those work?
 
2020-04-22 8:56:42 AM  

QFarker: The virus was already in north America in January, we just weren't looking for it.


Very likely.

One of the big clusters here in Georgia has been traced to a large family funeral that occurred on February 15 and second to a Church Homecoming around the same time. Obviously, someone was a vector in each of these. Might have had mild symptoms and shook it off.
 
2020-04-22 8:56:50 AM  

Rapmaster2000: Hachitori: The fact is that you can't keep the whole country on lock-down forever,

Good news!  No one has suggested that.


His entire post is just a light rewording of a couple of Fox and Friends and Hannity segments including the "cure worse than the disease" line that grabbed Trump's attention for awhile.

He's just spreading propaganda.
 
2020-04-22 8:58:02 AM  

Cdr.Murdock: I'm guessing that this was the European strain of the virus that would not have been prevented by Trump's xenophobic China travel ban..


That would be incorrect.

Phylogeny data from nextstrain.org shows samples taken at that early date are of Asian origin.
 
2020-04-22 9:01:21 AM  

QFarker: The virus was already in north America in January, we just weren't looking for it.


Correct. My aunt and cousin caught it in mid-January, likely from a group of Chinese tourists to whom my aunt had significant exposure.
 
2020-04-22 9:02:09 AM  

great_tigers: Thanks Trump!


We made it three posts. Thanks, thread-shiatter!
 
2020-04-22 9:06:07 AM  

Hachitori: It will be interesting - one thing to note is that the distribution of the virus is far from equally spread.  New York State and New Jersey account for almost 50 percent of active cases - and there's a theory (yeah, not peer reviewed yet) that the strain in New York/New Jersey is the virulent Italian strain which is more far deadly.

I think there's an argument to be made that the whole class is being punished because of a few bad kids.

New York has 13,000 cases per million people and 1,000 deaths per million.

Oklahoma has 715 cases per million, and 42 deaths per million.

The fact is that you can't keep the whole country on lock-down forever, or the treatment becomes worse for people than the disease.

Even California, which comes in fourth on the list of total cases only has 35,000, and 915 cases per million and 34 deaths per million.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavi​rus/country/us/


Alternatively, take the measures necessary so that Oklahoma doesn't start to look like New York. This isn't punishing the class, this is learning from others mistakes.
 
2020-04-22 9:08:44 AM  

Hachitori: So, perhaps blocking Chinese travel didn't work out but it sure seemed like the smart thing to do at the time.....to call it xenophobic is well...


It was xenophobic because it only stopped non-US citizens from flying to the US from China. It did nothing to stop the over 40,000 people who flew back from China after the "ban." I'm pretty certain a virus doesn't give a shiat about your citizenship. The ban was completely useless.
 
2020-04-22 9:12:51 AM  
Hey, they fixed the adblock-fail link!

Thanks, admins!
 
2020-04-22 9:17:38 AM  
I think it was in Australia on the 9th of January yet our records don't show it.
 
2020-04-22 9:34:38 AM  

Rapmaster2000: QFarker: The virus was already in north America in January, we just weren't looking for it.

As contagious as this is, and with as many asymptomatic cases as there appear to be, I have no doubt that this is true.


So when China says it was brought into China by US Military, are they right?
 
2020-04-22 9:35:21 AM  

great_tigers: Thanks Trump!


Now you stop that! :D
You know you're just going to flush them out of the woodwork.
 
2020-04-22 9:36:22 AM  

KingBiefWhistle: Who posted the links showing the Flu-like symptoms hospitalizations calming down before spiking right back up in Februrary again?


Outside of the warmer states, people dying from flu-like symptoms during flu season would have been classified by a coroner as dying from the flu.  I suspect anyone dying from the flu now would be assumed to have died from COVID-19.  We will probably never have accurate statistics.
 
2020-04-22 9:43:22 AM  
So the Chinese and Fake News media hoaxers are playing the long game!
 
2020-04-22 9:45:50 AM  

Clash City Farker: Rapmaster2000: QFarker: The virus was already in north America in January, we just weren't looking for it.

As contagious as this is, and with as many asymptomatic cases as there appear to be, I have no doubt that this is true.

So when China says it was brought into China by US Military, are they right?


Considering it was in China in December, probably not.  Why are you asking me this question?
 
2020-04-22 9:47:17 AM  

Hachitori: It will be interesting - one thing to note is that the distribution of the virus is far from equally spread.  New York State and New Jersey account for almost 50 percent of active cases - and there's a theory (yeah, not peer reviewed yet) that the strain in New York/New Jersey is the virulent Italian strain which is more far deadly.

I think there's an argument to be made that the whole class is being punished because of a few bad kids.

New York has 13,000 cases per million people and 1,000 deaths per million.

Oklahoma has 715 cases per million, and 42 deaths per million.

The fact is that you can't keep the whole country on lock-down forever, or the treatment becomes worse for people than the disease.

Even California, which comes in fourth on the list of total cases only has 35,000, and 915 cases per million and 34 deaths per million.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavi​rus/country/us/


So when should we have opened up society? Or when should we open up society?
 
2020-04-22 9:50:13 AM  

Rapmaster2000: Clash City Farker: Rapmaster2000: QFarker: The virus was already in north America in January, we just weren't looking for it.

As contagious as this is, and with as many asymptomatic cases as there appear to be, I have no doubt that this is true.

So when China says it was brought into China by US Military, are they right?

Considering it was in China in December, probably not.  Why are you asking me this question?


Well, I don't think we have the timelines right for one thing.
 
2020-04-22 9:50:27 AM  

hissatsu: Hachitori: So, perhaps blocking Chinese travel didn't work out but it sure seemed like the smart thing to do at the time.....to call it xenophobic is well...

It was xenophobic because it only stopped non-US citizens from flying to the US from China. It did nothing to stop the over 40,000 people who flew back from China after the "ban." I'm pretty certain a virus doesn't give a shiat about your citizenship. The ban was completely useless.


So we should lift the bans right now?
 
2020-04-22 9:50:28 AM  

JerryHeisenberg: Hachitori: It will be interesting - one thing to note is that the distribution of the virus is far from equally spread.  New York State and New Jersey account for almost 50 percent of active cases - and there's a theory (yeah, not peer reviewed yet) that the strain in New York/New Jersey is the virulent Italian strain which is more far deadly.

I think there's an argument to be made that the whole class is being punished because of a few bad kids.

New York has 13,000 cases per million people and 1,000 deaths per million.

Oklahoma has 715 cases per million, and 42 deaths per million.

The fact is that you can't keep the whole country on lock-down forever, or the treatment becomes worse for people than the disease.

Even California, which comes in fourth on the list of total cases only has 35,000, and 915 cases per million and 34 deaths per million.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavi​rus/country/us/

So when should we have opened up society? Or when should we open up society?


I have co-workers that argued early on that it should never shut down in the first place because it would put restaurants they like out of business, and so what if a million people die, life is dangerous.
 
2020-04-22 9:52:38 AM  

JerryHeisenberg: hissatsu: Hachitori: So, perhaps blocking Chinese travel didn't work out but it sure seemed like the smart thing to do at the time.....to call it xenophobic is well...

It was xenophobic because it only stopped non-US citizens from flying to the US from China. It did nothing to stop the over 40,000 people who flew back from China after the "ban." I'm pretty certain a virus doesn't give a shiat about your citizenship. The ban was completely useless.

So we should lift the bans right now?


You might as well. The only thing that's going to further slow the spread at this point is continued isolation and widely available testing. Doesn't matter if a sick person gets off a plane or walks out their front door, it's already here and it's already widespread.
 
2020-04-22 9:53:33 AM  

great_tigers: Thanks Trump!


This is on Newsom.  If he was actually smarter than Trump, he would have nipped it in the bud.
 
2020-04-22 10:02:08 AM  

buravirgil: Subby's Source
April 21, 2020 at 7:20 p.m
The individuals who were tested posthumously for COVID-19 died at home on February 6 and February 17.


Wow, that's a long time to wait for a test.
 
2020-04-22 10:05:10 AM  
It's kind of like when they found HIV in the preserved tissues of a sailor who died of a mysterious wasting disease back in 1959.
 
2020-04-22 10:17:18 AM  

Gooch: It's kind of like when they found HIV in the preserved tissues of a sailor who died of a mysterious wasting disease back in 1959.


"Ensign Monkeyf$cker we called him.  Never would say where he was going on leave.  Same answer every time - 'Im going bananas!'  Weird dude."
 
2020-04-22 10:25:57 AM  
My husband was horribly sick the second week of Feb--he couldn't breathe, he had a fever, all COVID symptoms. We work and live in Santa Clara county. hmmmm...
 
2020-04-22 10:39:31 AM  

Cdr.Murdock: I'm guessing that this was the European strain of the virus that would not have been prevented by Trump's xenophobic China travel ban..


I'm guessing you're wrong.
 
2020-04-22 10:42:49 AM  

hissatsu: It was xenophobic because it only stopped non-US citizens from flying to the US from China


Which is just another way of saying it let US citizens fly back home.
 
2020-04-22 10:46:14 AM  

Cdr.Murdock: I'm guessing that this was the European strain of the virus that would not have been prevented by Trump's xenophobic China travel ban..


Someone dying on February 6 on the west coast would be quite unlikely to have had the Italian strain, which was first documented on January 31.
 
2020-04-22 10:57:20 AM  

Clash City Farker: Rapmaster2000: QFarker: The virus was already in north America in January, we just weren't looking for it.

As contagious as this is, and with as many asymptomatic cases as there appear to be, I have no doubt that this is true.

So when China says it was brought into China by US Military, are they right?


No.

https://www.cell.com/current-biology/​p​dfExtended/S0960-9822(20)30360-2

If they actually thought that, this paper would not have been allowed to be published. This puts a genetic ancestor for Covid-19 in Guangdong in pangolins in October 2019. It would jump to people about a month later.
 
2020-04-22 10:59:41 AM  

Rapmaster2000: QFarker: The virus was already in north America in January, we just weren't looking for it.

As contagious as this is, and with as many asymptomatic cases as there appear to be, I have no doubt that this is true.


At least one case arrived in Washington state from China on January 15, with a positive test result by the 20th. Authorities were looking for it in people with that travel history and who were showing symptoms, but asymptomatic carriers or people going through other countries would have been missed,
 
2020-04-22 11:01:21 AM  

This text is now purple: Cdr.Murdock: I'm guessing that this was the European strain of the virus that would not have been prevented by Trump's xenophobic China travel ban..

Someone dying on February 6 on the west coast would be quite unlikely to have had the Italian strain, which was first documented on January 31.


The problem with that theory is that the younger jet-settiig asymptomatic spread tends to not be detected until it hits a cluster of people that show symptoms.  Early in this (in the northern hemispheres) the symptoms were considered "just the flu" until it was too big to ignore/misdiagnose/sweep under the rug.
 
2020-04-22 11:04:02 AM  

This text is now purple: Cdr.Murdock: I'm guessing that this was the European strain of the virus that would not have been prevented by Trump's xenophobic China travel ban..

Someone dying on February 6 on the west coast would be quite unlikely to have had the Italian strain, which was first documented on January 31.


Well, he said he was just guessing ...
 
2020-04-22 11:14:37 AM  

This text is now purple: Clash City Farker: Rapmaster2000: QFarker: The virus was already in north America in January, we just weren't looking for it.

As contagious as this is, and with as many asymptomatic cases as there appear to be, I have no doubt that this is true.

So when China says it was brought into China by US Military, are they right?

No.

https://www.cell.com/current-biology/p​dfExtended/S0960-9822(20)30360-2

If they actually thought that, this paper would not have been allowed to be published. This puts a genetic ancestor for Covid-19 in Guangdong in pangolins in October 2019. It would jump to people about a month later.


That paper says "Pangolin-CoV is 91.02% identical to SARS-CoV-2 at the whole-genome level" and:

Similar to the case for SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV [2], the bat is still a probable species of origin for 2019 novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) because SARS-CoV-2 shares 96% whole- genome identity with a bat CoV, BatCoV RaTG13, from Rhinolo- phus affinis from Yunnan Province

The new one is also something like a 94% match to original SARS. It may have played some historical role but the pangolin virus from October 2019 is not the same virus which jumped to humans.
 
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