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(Wired)   What if Covid-19 returns every year? Like the common cold or that drunk ex?   (wired.com) divider line
    More: Followup, Vaccination, Epidemiology, Public health, Health care, Harvard team's models, Universal health care, Harvard University, public health researchers  
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729 clicks; posted to Geek » on 15 Apr 2020 at 11:07 AM (11 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2020-04-15 10:34:42 AM  
It won't be a novel virus, then.  Fauci said on The Daily Show, that he would be very surprised if we weren't able to develop a learned immune response after being exposed to the virus.
 
Xai [TotalFark] [BareFark]
2020-04-15 10:38:37 AM  
Why are people worried about it 'coming back' when we haven't even managed to deal with it thus far?

That's like worrying if you left the oven on as your house burns down, it shouldn't be your #1 priority.
 
2020-04-15 10:40:00 AM  

Billy Bathsalt: It won't be a novel virus, then.  Fauci said on The Daily Show, that he would be very surprised if we weren't able to develop a learned immune response after being exposed to the virus.


That's a bingo.
 
2020-04-15 10:49:39 AM  
If we don't have a vaccine, that means we will all probably end up going through the covid gauntlet. Many of us will die. And if, as some evidence suggests, surviving the virus does not convey long term immunity, many of us will have to endure it many times until it winnows out anyone who doesn't have a natural resistance to it. Because that old saying that what doesn't kill us makes us stronger is bullshiat. People who contract permanent lung damage will get worse and worse each time they catch this until it kills them.

So yeah, I really hope one of the 80 vaccines in development work.
 
2020-04-15 10:52:16 AM  
Wouldn't it be strange if we discover a cure for cancer and we get wiped out by the virus?
 
2020-04-15 10:55:29 AM  
Then we start all over again
 
2020-04-15 10:58:36 AM  
Wouldn't it be strange if we discover a cure for the virus and we get wiped out by explosive diarrhea?
 
2020-04-15 10:59:37 AM  
It's possible.  It's also possible there's never going to be a vaccine.  You can't escape an airborne virus, everybody gets exposed to it eventually.  All you can do is slow the infection rate to not strain medical staff and facilities.
 
2020-04-15 11:08:49 AM  
I would guess we'd have a vaccine by then.
 
2020-04-15 11:11:51 AM  

Xai: Why are people worried about it 'coming back' when we haven't even managed to deal with it thus far?

That's like worrying if you left the oven on as your house burns down, it shouldn't be your #1 priority.


Don't read this if your anxiety level is high.

Mostly because it will lower human life spans (just like it's fairly common for old people to die of the flu; now you have this to contend with). Also, when it hits hard, it lays you up for weeks in a hospital (if unlucky, and if you're really unlucky, well, that's that). It may cause permanent injury. We don't know yet. No one is even thinking about those costs yet.
 
2020-04-15 11:12:35 AM  

Earguy: Wouldn't it be strange if we discover a cure for cancer and we get wiped out by the virus?


it would certainly be ironic
 
2020-04-15 11:12:35 AM  

Jake Havechek: You can't escape an airborne virus, everybody gets exposed to it eventually.


We've escaped plenty of airborne viruses.
 
2020-04-15 11:14:44 AM  

This text is now purple: Jake Havechek: You can't escape an airborne virus, everybody gets exposed to it eventually.

We've escaped plenty of airborne viruses.


Not anything like this one.
 
2020-04-15 11:15:03 AM  
Herd immunity and vaccinations, it can come back all it wants but it won't find millions of people to infect.
 
2020-04-15 11:15:24 AM  
What if it does? Influenza does. But those also tend to cycle about, in part because their reservoirs adapt to them. Adaptation is a two-way arms race.

But then, SARS and MERS never re-emerged with the same violence they did on their first appearance.
 
2020-04-15 11:16:28 AM  

Jake Havechek: This text is now purple: Jake Havechek: You can't escape an airborne virus, everybody gets exposed to it eventually.

We've escaped plenty of airborne viruses.

Not anything like this one.


Measles may have wiped out the Roman Empire and set the Chinese back a few hundred years.

You have a lesser grasp of history than ESPN.
 
2020-04-15 11:22:46 AM  

This text is now purple: Jake Havechek: This text is now purple: Jake Havechek: You can't escape an airborne virus, everybody gets exposed to it eventually.

We've escaped plenty of airborne viruses.

Not anything like this one.

Measles may have wiped out the Roman Empire and set the Chinese back a few hundred years.

You have a lesser grasp of history than ESPN.


That's really harsh to say about ESPN, man.
 
2020-04-15 11:25:11 AM  
I'm heartened that hospitals are starting to improve how they care for covid patients (particularly the emphasis on "proning" them).  I also hope, given that it's an RNA virus, it has some unique proteins that can be targeted with drugs.

In the end, this virus may stick around for years and cause pain each of those years.  But the survival of humans isn't our toughness, it's our adaptability, and as a society we'll eventually adapt.
 
2020-04-15 11:26:03 AM  

NewportBarGuy: You have a lesser grasp of history than ESPN.

That's really harsh to say about ESPN, man.


In the beginning, there was ESPN. Then ESPN created Michael Jordan, but only when he was with the Bulls.
 
2020-04-15 11:26:41 AM  

gopher321: Wouldn't it be strange if we discover a cure for the virus and we get wiped out by explosive diarrhea?


Holy sh*t that would stink.
 
Juc
2020-04-15 11:30:17 AM  

Billy Bathsalt: It won't be a novel virus, then.  Fauci said on The Daily Show, that he would be very surprised if we weren't able to develop a learned immune response after being exposed to the virus.


I think the problem would be if it mutates significantly to allow people to get infected again, over and over.
 
2020-04-15 11:30:23 AM  
Eventually we would develop a herd immunity to it but it will be at a cost of hospitalizing and/or killing those who are vulnerable to it.
 
2020-04-15 11:50:39 AM  
"Herd immunity" without vaccination is a death toll in the tens of millions if not hundreds.
 
2020-04-15 11:51:36 AM  
Wouldn't it be strange if we discover a cure for cancer and we get wiped out by a goddamn meteor?
 
2020-04-15 11:52:29 AM  
IIRC - they said COVID-19 mutates slower than your average flu, which is good news while it lasts.
 
2020-04-15 11:53:45 AM  

BenSaw2: IIRC - they said COVID-19 mutates slower than your average flu, which is good news while it lasts.


Erm ... maybe?
 
2020-04-15 11:58:19 AM  

BenSaw2: IIRC - they said COVID-19 mutates slower than your average flu, which is good news while it lasts.


That's something of a low bar - the reason flu vaccines are always something of a crapshoot is that the flu virus mutates so much faster than most.
 
2020-04-15 12:08:08 PM  

Ambivalence: If we don't have a vaccine, that means we will all probably end up going through the covid gauntlet. Many of us will die. And if, as some evidence suggests, surviving the virus does not convey long term immunity, many of us will have to endure it many times until it winnows out anyone who doesn't have a natural resistance to it. Because that old saying that what doesn't kill us makes us stronger is bullshiat. People who contract permanent lung damage will get worse and worse each time they catch this until it kills them.

So yeah, I really hope one of the 80 vaccines in development work.


If there is no immunity then there is no recovery.  I don't think the situation is as dire since the vast majority do seem to recover.
There may be a cyclical issue or, more likely, mutated strains that keep sweeping through. At some point most will have contracted and recovered from it. It's going to burn out over the next decade.
Ironically the flatten curve method means a nice Sri graph, but it also means more strains will develop.  This is going to be an addition to the cold/flu season.
 
2020-04-15 12:21:09 PM  

way south: There may be a cyclical issue or, more likely, mutated strains that keep sweeping through. the steep error rate in current tests.

 
2020-04-15 12:22:32 PM  

This text is now purple: Jake Havechek: This text is now purple: Jake Havechek: You can't escape an airborne virus, everybody gets exposed to it eventually.

We've escaped plenty of airborne viruses.

Not anything like this one.

Measles may have wiped out the Roman Empire and set the Chinese back a few hundred years.

You have a lesser grasp of history than ESPN.


You're my hero.  I want to be just like you.  I figure all I need is a lobotomy and a drool cup.
 
2020-04-15 12:30:37 PM  

way south: If there is no immunity then there is no recovery.


At some point the people who are susceptible to the more serious complications will have died. The survivors will miss them, but if there is no immunity that is just how it is going to be. I'm not going to social-distance for the rest of my life.
 
2020-04-15 12:31:33 PM  
What do you mean "what if?"  We don't have a vaccine for this shiat.
 
2020-04-15 12:38:15 PM  

gopher321: Wouldn't it be strange if we discover a cure for the virus and we get wiped out by explosive diarrhea?


Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-04-15 12:56:27 PM  

Nadie_AZ: gopher321: Wouldn't it be strange if we discover a cure for the virus and we get wiped out by explosive diarrhea?

Holy sh*t that would stink.


And since we cured the virus we'd still have our sense of smell.  That's the worst Gift of the Magi ever.
 
2020-04-15 1:02:16 PM  
Enough with the farking modeling. You're giving stupid people stupid reasons to be stupid. It's stupid. If you're doing it to assist the response, fine but keep it from the public, we are too stupid to do anything with it that's positive.
 
2020-04-15 1:10:32 PM  
Probably not much "if" and a whole lot of WHEN it comes back.
 
2020-04-15 1:20:42 PM  

Sliding Carp: BenSaw2: IIRC - they said COVID-19 mutates slower than your average flu, which is good news while it lasts.

That's something of a low bar - the reason flu vaccines are always something of a crapshoot is that the flu virus mutates so much faster than most.


There are at least two proteins different between the dominant Seattle variation and the Wuhan variation. IIRC, there are 6 variants in the US alone. How many times does a virus replicate in a host? I've no idea? A million? A billion?  That's a lot of opportunities for mutation. I imagine it's almost a certainty that there are human hosts with multiple variants in their system. Does each variant require a variant-specific vaccine?

Not to be a Debbie Downer, but is this what a population bottleneck feels like?
 
2020-04-15 1:27:01 PM  

yakmans_dad: Sliding Carp: BenSaw2: IIRC - they said COVID-19 mutates slower than your average flu, which is good news while it lasts.

That's something of a low bar - the reason flu vaccines are always something of a crapshoot is that the flu virus mutates so much faster than most.

There are at least two proteins different between the dominant Seattle variation and the Wuhan variation. IIRC, there are 6 variants in the US alone. How many times does a virus replicate in a host? I've no idea? A million? A billion?  That's a lot of opportunities for mutation. I imagine it's almost a certainty that there are human hosts with multiple variants in their system. Does each variant require a variant-specific vaccine?

Not to be a Debbie Downer, but is this what a population bottleneck feels like?


****
It's hard for a tyro like me to search such a question, but I found one study where EACH infected cell was capable of producing 100,000 copies.
 
2020-04-15 2:11:52 PM  

portnoyd: Enough with the farking modeling. You're giving stupid people stupid reasons to be stupid. It's stupid. If you're doing it to assist the response, fine but keep it from the public, we are too stupid to do anything with it that's positive.


Is that your complaint?
 
2020-04-15 2:38:30 PM  

Sliding Carp: BenSaw2: IIRC - they said COVID-19 mutates slower than your average flu, which is good news while it lasts.

That's something of a low bar - the reason flu vaccines are always something of a crapshoot is that the flu virus mutates so much faster than most.


OH - OK - thanks - I was blindly assuming the flu was the "normal" way.
 
2020-04-15 2:57:52 PM  
Well, that implies that it's going to go away at some point, which is pretty sweet news.
 
2020-04-15 4:03:18 PM  

Xai: Why are people worried about it 'coming back' when we haven't even managed to deal with it thus far?

That's like worrying if you left the oven on as your house burns down, it shouldn't be your #1 priority.


They are "worrying" for the sake of headlines and readership.

Look, they say in the first sentence:  "SARS-CoV-2 is often compared to its close genetic cousin SARS-CoV-1. And for good reason".   But then 7 sentences later they say "What if the virus is more like some of its lesser-known family members, like HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1?"

That's like saying, "It's like its close genetic cousin... but what if it's NOT like its close genetic cousin and is instead like its NOT CLOSE genetic cousins!?  What then, mutherfarker!?"
 
2020-04-15 4:06:29 PM  
My point being - sure, we don't know what genetic variations might go into its virulence or our long-term immune response, but it's awfully premature to be making scary predictions about it coming back in seasonal waves just because some not-so-closely related virii do.
 
2020-04-15 4:21:17 PM  

This text is now purple: Jake Havechek: This text is now purple: Jake Havechek: You can't escape an airborne virus, everybody gets exposed to it eventually.

We've escaped plenty of airborne viruses.

Not anything like this one.

Measles may have wiped out the Roman Empire and set the Chinese back a few hundred years.

You have a lesser grasp of history than ESPN.


And the Black Death may have been an outbreak of an Ebola-like virus.
 
2020-04-15 4:30:14 PM  
Science will have crap-all to do with it. Social distancing will end when FB moms reach the combined breaking point of running out of sourdough recipes while realizing their children are not perfect angels.
 
2020-04-15 4:52:24 PM  

Mad_Radhu: This text is now purple: Jake Havechek: This text is now purple: Jake Havechek: You can't escape an airborne virus, everybody gets exposed to it eventually.

We've escaped plenty of airborne viruses.

Not anything like this one.

Measles may have wiped out the Roman Empire and set the Chinese back a few hundred years.

You have a lesser grasp of history than ESPN.

And the Black Death may have been an outbreak of an Ebola-like virus.


Not sure if serious, but most scienticians agree that the Black Death was caused by the Yersinia pestis bacteria.  There's room for error, but a lot of agreement.
 
2020-04-15 5:14:07 PM  

DerAppie: way south: If there is no immunity then there is no recovery.

At some point the people who are susceptible to the more serious complications will have died. The survivors will miss them, but if there is no immunity that is just how it is going to be. I'm not going to social-distance for the rest of my life.


They can be isolated to an extent. Herd immunity is still a thing.

...But I more meant in the sense that you need immunity to fight the virus off in the first place.
How are sick people getting well enough to walk out the hospital? Did the virus change its mind about drowning you to death in your own fluids?

It might be like chickenpox where it comes back to haunt you later. There may be long term damages we aren't aware of yet.  If someone is up and walking tho it's because their immune system found a way to attack the virus infected cells or something about the cell chemistry changed to stall replication. Something changed.

If that effect lasts for a period of time then it means vaccines and drug therapies can work. There are ways out of this, we just have to be faster about deploying them.

/the R rate only matters if they virus can jump to someone without immunity.
 
2020-04-15 6:27:58 PM  

slobberbone: Science will have crap-all to do with it.


I don't think so.  Regardless if the hysterical premise of The Farking Article comes true, the current urgency may lead us to (a) take the possibility of viral pandemic more seriously going forward and (b) will quite likely result in appreciable advances in speedy vaccine development as well as general treatment regimens.

Don't lose sight of the fact that this "cold virus" doesn't do most of its own killing.  People die from it when their own immune system goes overboard in reaction to the infection.  Just one, widely effective medical treatment for that overreaction could spell the difference between "deadly virus" and "the sniffles" for most people.
 
2020-04-15 7:00:59 PM  

SansNeural: Don't lose sight of the fact that this "cold virus" doesn't do most of its own killing.  People die from it when their own immune system goes overboard in reaction to the infection.  Just one, widely effective medical treatment for that overreaction could spell the difference between "deadly virus" and "the sniffles" for most people.


I haven't lost sight of anything. You underestimate the ability of a pack of FB moms that have run out of projects to impress each other with. I fear them. They believe in science. Until their neighbor with the crystals is against vaccines and says the magic words "MY child."
 
2020-04-15 8:03:35 PM  

SansNeural: Mad_Radhu: This text is now purple: Jake Havechek: This text is now purple: Jake Havechek: You can't escape an airborne virus, everybody gets exposed to it eventually.

We've escaped plenty of airborne viruses.

Not anything like this one.

Measles may have wiped out the Roman Empire and set the Chinese back a few hundred years.

You have a lesser grasp of history than ESPN.

And the Black Death may have been an outbreak of an Ebola-like virus.

Not sure if serious, but most scienticians agree that the Black Death was caused by the Yersinia pestis bacteria.  There's room for error, but a lot of agreement.


There's been some recent debate about this. There are a lot of historical details about the Black Plague that don't seem to fit a bacterial cause, plus there's some genetic studies done on populations who seem to have developed resistance due to a mutation in a cell receptor that fits a viral origin better.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/​m​g17223184-000-did-bubonic-plague-reall​y-cause-the-black-death/

"The association between CCR5 and viruses suggests that the Black Death was a virus too. Its sudden emergence, and equally sudden disappearance after the Great Plague of London in 1666, also argue for a viral cause. Like the deadly flu of 1918, viruses can sometimes mutate into killers, and then disappear.

But what sort of virus was the Black Death? Scott and Duncan suggest a haemorrhagic filovirus such as Ebola, since the one consistent symptom was bleeding. In fact they think "haemorrhagic plague" would be a good new name for the disease."
 
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