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(The Hill)   Well at least the Republicans can always rely on seniors to vote them into office...Oh, well look at that new poll over there   (thehill.com) divider line
    More: Giggity, Hillary Rodham Clinton, outbreak Trump campaign, Joe Biden, Sanders exit, 65-years-old, senior citizens, general election, Barack Obama  
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5687 clicks; posted to Politics » on 11 Apr 2020 at 10:20 PM (12 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2020-04-11 10:23:32 PM  
A new CNN poll leaves the Biden campaign salivating. It shows the former vice president leading Trump nationally by 13 points with voters older than 65. It follows another YouGov poll that showed Biden tied with Trump at 49 percent.


That says the methodology is wacky and you can't believe either poll.
 
2020-04-11 10:24:05 PM  
A promising sign for him, but no one should be celebrating yet.
 
2020-04-11 10:24:19 PM  
As comforting as this is to see, it changes nothing, your vote is needed, if nothing else then we need to make sure we run the vote totals up so high that it's indisputable how terrible trump is and maybe it'll scare the republicans into rejecting him, his family and his legacy like they should have from the day he descended the escalator.
 
Juc
2020-04-11 10:27:09 PM  
I imagine the ones that survive won't be happy with having their lives toyed with in the name of the economy.
 
2020-04-11 10:27:11 PM  

Badmoodman: A new CNN poll leaves the Biden campaign salivating. It shows the former vice president leading Trump nationally by 13 points with voters older than 65. It follows another YouGov poll that showed Biden tied with Trump at 49 percent.


That says the methodology is wacky and you can't believe either poll.


It shows Trump is in a weaker position in the demographic than he was 4 years ago. It might be a 7 point swing (tied) or a 20 point swing depending on the poll, slightly less assuming a conservative margin of error but even still it means the democratic is moving away from him. Now if that will stand up to the test of time, who knows.
 
2020-04-11 10:29:03 PM  
Tough to read a lot into any polls this far out.  Promising polls are great but there is still a ton of time
 
2020-04-11 10:29:29 PM  
The whole "seniors need to sacrifice themselves for the sake of the economy" line the republicans have tried pushing probably isn't helping.
 
2020-04-11 10:30:50 PM  
old timey gibberish is cute.
 
2020-04-11 10:30:59 PM  
Shrug, old people vote. And they don't take kindly to people who mess w/ their medical, money, or health. Maybe just maybe the Trump-GOP talking points of just let the old people die and save the economy, did not resonate w/ the old people voting block.

Which is bad considering it is old people who line up 4 hours early at the voting precincts. When you have nothing to do buy politics, eat, drink, fark, and/ or die. Well Politics becomes very important. Well, it is bad for Trump, which makes it good for everyone else.

So weird polls aside this should be expected. When you start actively trying to kill your support, the support tend to, no longer support you. Cause in life there are no NPC's.
 
2020-04-11 10:31:59 PM  

Blaarrg: A promising sign for him, but no one should be celebrating yet.


Hell, Hillary won and she lost! Fark a poll!
 
2020-04-11 10:33:36 PM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-04-11 10:34:44 PM  
National polls mean less than fark all in a Presidential election. State by state is marginally better, but this far out, still pretty meaningless. The world can change a lot in a month, let alone seven.
 
2020-04-11 10:34:48 PM  
Whomever came up with the baby video window that pops up after you INTENTIONALLY SCROLLED PAST IT'S MOTHER should be very slowly fed into a metal shredding machine.  And their browser enablers too.
 
2020-04-11 10:37:28 PM  

Juc: I imagine the ones that survive won't be happy with having their lives toyed with in the name of the economy.


Are you kidding us? They won't care, because they weren't affected outside of a few friends dying.

Then you get to hear, "But I'll tell you what I think about those Mexicans, welfare queens, and uppity blacks..."

The fact that we've seen the death-toll of this virus impact urban centers the hardest so far, and dipshiats in flyover country crow about how we wish for their deaths, is kinda amazing. They've mastered the art of the victim complex, even when they get off easy.

We won't fix this until we treat them as harshly as they pretend we treat them. Lace that biatch and wear it, and all that. They won't like that bluff getting called, if we had the balls to do it.
 
2020-04-11 10:37:34 PM  
The conventional wisdom that keeps popping up in stories about the primary is that young people didn't turn out.

This is wrong. Most statistics cited show youth turnout as a percentage of total turnout, not the percentage of youth that turned out. What this means is that Bernie hit reasonable numbers with young people, but Biden got TONS of old people to turn out. Old people vote in large numbers to begin with, and Biden got them to vote way beyond that.

If that holds in the general and Biden can be some sort of old person whisperer who cuts into Trump's numbers with old people, he could do very very well.
 
2020-04-11 10:38:41 PM  

Badmoodman: A new CNN poll leaves the Biden campaign salivating. It shows the former vice president leading Trump nationally by 13 points with voters older than 65. It follows another YouGov poll that showed Biden tied with Trump at 49 percent.


That says the methodology is wacky and you can't believe either poll.


or you need to look at the differences between the two - selection criteria - and see what is different.  One could be LV one could be RV.  that can make a big difference.
 
2020-04-11 10:39:27 PM  

mcnguyen: The whole "seniors need to sacrifice themselves for the sake of the economy" line the republicans have tried pushing probably isn't helping.


Or the occasional comment about farking with Social Security and Medicare.  That kind of thing makes seniors come unglued.
 
2020-04-11 10:40:13 PM  
What, telling people that gram-gram and pap-pap might have to kill themselves for the sake of the economy didn't ingratiate his royal tangerineness in the elderly's eyes?
 
2020-04-11 10:40:24 PM  

Dafatone: ot the percentage of youth that turned out. What this means is that Bernie hit reasonable numbers with young people,


No, it doesn't show that.  Young people don't show up, the data consistently shows this.  Their representation as a % of eligible voters in their age group remains low.
 
2020-04-11 10:41:51 PM  
Old people don't want to die and don't take kindly to a guy pushing them into their graves. Imagine that.
 
2020-04-11 10:42:59 PM  

Kazan: Dafatone: ot the percentage of youth that turned out. What this means is that Bernie hit reasonable numbers with young people,

No, it doesn't show that.  Young people don't show up, the data consistently shows this.  Their representation as a % of eligible voters in their age group remains low.


Young people vote at lower numbers than old people. I never said anything to the contrary.

But young people voted this primary in reasonably good numbers for a candidate hoping to win on the backs of the youth vote.

Old people voted this primary in huge numbers even given their usual turnout.
 
2020-04-11 10:43:12 PM  

Badmoodman: A new CNN poll leaves the Biden campaign salivating. It shows the former vice president leading Trump nationally by 13 points with voters older than 65. It follows another YouGov poll that showed Biden tied with Trump at 49 percent.


That says the methodology is wacky and you can't believe either poll.


YouGov is online if I'm not mistaken. Don't know why anyone puts any stock in that one.
 
2020-04-11 10:45:15 PM  

Kazan: Badmoodman: A new CNN poll leaves the Biden campaign salivating. It shows the former vice president leading Trump nationally by 13 points with voters older than 65. It follows another YouGov poll that showed Biden tied with Trump at 49 percent.


That says the methodology is wacky and you can't believe either poll.

or you need to look at the differences between the two - selection criteria - and see what is different.  One could be LV one could be RV.  that can make a big difference.


You should stop using terms you saw somewhere and don't have any hope of understanding.
 
Azz [TotalFark]
2020-04-11 10:46:59 PM  

leehouse: Tough to read a lot into any polls this far out.  Promising polls are great but there is still a ton of time


Who knows what kind of shenanigans Trump will pull between now and then
 
2020-04-11 10:47:26 PM  

Blaarrg: A promising sign for him, but no one should be celebrating yet.


7 months is an eternity in politics
 
2020-04-11 10:48:17 PM  

Dafatone: The conventional wisdom that keeps popping up in stories about the primary is that young people didn't turn out.

This is wrong. Most statistics cited show youth turnout as a percentage of total turnout, not the percentage of youth that turned out. What this means is that Bernie hit reasonable numbers with young people, but Biden got TONS of old people to turn out. Old people vote in large numbers to begin with, and Biden got them to vote way beyond that.

If that holds in the general and Biden can be some sort of old person whisperer who cuts into Trump's numbers with old people, he could do very very well.


They need to work on a "Grandma, Grandpa don't you care?" type of ad. Old people generally treat their crotch-spawn as grown-ass adults who have either made it or failed by now, but the grandkids? They want unicorns and rainbows for them.
 
2020-04-11 10:50:11 PM  

Dafatone: Kazan: Dafatone: ot the percentage of youth that turned out. What this means is that Bernie hit reasonable numbers with young people,

No, it doesn't show that.  Young people don't show up, the data consistently shows this.  Their representation as a % of eligible voters in their age group remains low.

Young people vote at lower numbers than old people. I never said anything to the contrary.

But young people voted this primary in reasonably good numbers for a candidate hoping to win on the backs of the youth vote.

Old people voted this primary in huge numbers even given their usual turnout.


They turned out in fewer numbers than 2016. I wish that weren't true but, it is.
 
2020-04-11 10:50:39 PM  

bobobolinskii: Blaarrg: A promising sign for him, but no one should be celebrating yet.

7 months is an eternity in politics


weeks is an eternity in politics. 7 months is a yonk.
 
2020-04-11 10:52:17 PM  
The problem with seniors is we keep making more of them.
 
2020-04-11 10:52:53 PM  

disco ball: Dafatone: Kazan: Dafatone: ot the percentage of youth that turned out. What this means is that Bernie hit reasonable numbers with young people,

No, it doesn't show that.  Young people don't show up, the data consistently shows this.  Their representation as a % of eligible voters in their age group remains low.

Young people vote at lower numbers than old people. I never said anything to the contrary.

But young people voted this primary in reasonably good numbers for a candidate hoping to win on the backs of the youth vote.

Old people voted this primary in huge numbers even given their usual turnout.

They turned out in fewer numbers than 2016. I wish that weren't true but, it is.


538 disagrees: https://fivethirtyeight.co​m/features/h​istoric-turnout-in-2020-not-so-far/

Higher turnout than 2016 but less than 2008.
 
2020-04-11 10:53:55 PM  

Dafatone: disco ball: Dafatone: Kazan: Dafatone: ot the percentage of youth that turned out. What this means is that Bernie hit reasonable numbers with young people,

No, it doesn't show that.  Young people don't show up, the data consistently shows this.  Their representation as a % of eligible voters in their age group remains low.

Young people vote at lower numbers than old people. I never said anything to the contrary.

But young people voted this primary in reasonably good numbers for a candidate hoping to win on the backs of the youth vote.

Old people voted this primary in huge numbers even given their usual turnout.

They turned out in fewer numbers than 2016. I wish that weren't true but, it is.

538 disagrees: https://fivethirtyeight.com​/features/historic-turnout-in-2020-not​-so-far/

Higher turnout than 2016 but less than 2008.


This article also suggests that at least in a few places, young turnout is the same and old turnout is higher than 2016.
 
2020-04-11 10:55:11 PM  
I think it'll come down to how many seniors are willing to die for Trump versus the seniors willing to die for Biden. If that's the case, the outlook doesn't look great.
 
2020-04-11 10:58:05 PM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-04-11 10:59:38 PM  
If you entered "less than a week" for how long it would take Democrats to stop courting the youth vote, step up and claim your prize.
 
2020-04-11 11:00:44 PM  

Weatherkiss: I think it'll come down to how many seniors are willing to die for Trump versus the seniors willing to die for Biden. If that's the case, the outlook doesn't look great.


Some old people just want to see the world burn before they go.
 
2020-04-11 11:04:25 PM  

bobobolinskii: Weatherkiss: I think it'll come down to how many seniors are willing to die for Trump versus the seniors willing to die for Biden. If that's the case, the outlook doesn't look great.

Some old people just want to see the world burn before they go.


fark those people.
 
2020-04-11 11:04:56 PM  

bobobolinskii: Weatherkiss: I think it'll come down to how many seniors are willing to die for Trump versus the seniors willing to die for Biden. If that's the case, the outlook doesn't look great.

Some old people just want to see the world burn before they go.


Which is true. But it doesn't really make the outlook any less grim.
 
2020-04-11 11:06:28 PM  
It's a bit too early for this to be relevant, but if this holds in six months, then 45 will be neck-deep in shiat.

Also, the "liberal" media has been making every little "misstep" by the Democratic nominee a big farking deal. That was definitely the case in 2016 - Hillary was a bit unsteady getting into a van and everyone went apeshiat.
 
2020-04-11 11:13:58 PM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-04-11 11:15:09 PM  
Was the tactic of saying that they're on their last legs anyway and should just sacrifice themselves for increases in the DJIA wrong? Should we not have done that?
 
2020-04-11 11:23:07 PM  
bobobolinskii: Blaarrg: A promising sign for him, but no one should be celebrating yet.

7
9 months is an eternity in politics

I'm not relaxing until Biden takes the oath of office.
 
2020-04-11 11:32:31 PM  

I am Tom Joad's Complete Lack of Surprise: Whomever came up with the baby video window that pops up after you INTENTIONALLY SCROLLED PAST IT'S MOTHER should be very slowly fed into a metal shredding machine.  And their browser enablers too.


Specify feet first.
qph.fs.quoracdn.netView Full Size
 
2020-04-11 11:33:43 PM  
I don't mean to be dark but I get the feeling that that particular demographic won't be turning up in the numbers you're expecting in November.
 
2020-04-11 11:49:24 PM  

Snapper Carr: bobobolinskii: Blaarrg: A promising sign for him, but no one should be celebrating yet.

7 9 months is an eternity in politics

I'm not relaxing until Biden takes the oath of office.


And then the real stigginit can begin, unless the Dems wimp out again and try "healing" the country.
 
2020-04-11 11:58:44 PM  

wademh: I am Tom Joad's Complete Lack of Surprise: Whomever came up with the baby video window that pops up after you INTENTIONALLY SCROLLED PAST IT'S MOTHER should be very slowly fed into a metal shredding machine.  And their browser enablers too.

Specify feet first.
[qph.fs.quoracdn.net image 480x360]


What is that from?
 
2020-04-11 11:58:53 PM  

bobobolinskii: Snapper Carr: bobobolinskii: Blaarrg: A promising sign for him, but no one should be celebrating yet.

7 9 months is an eternity in politics

I'm not relaxing until Biden takes the oath of office.

And then the real stigginit can begin, unless the Dems wimp out again and try "healing" the country.


The very rough equivalent right now would be what? 30,000 consecutive years of COVID-19 hearings?
 
2020-04-11 11:59:15 PM  
Old people have strong stances on malarkey and being fed into the ravening maw of Moloch.
 
2020-04-12 12:04:45 AM  
Trump and his campaign are hoping that he can convince older Americans and voters in general that his administration has responded strongly to the pandemic.

So like usual they're going to lie.
 
2020-04-12 12:05:29 AM  

listerine69: wademh: I am Tom Joad's Complete Lack of Surprise: Whomever came up with the baby video window that pops up after you INTENTIONALLY SCROLLED PAST IT'S MOTHER should be very slowly fed into a metal shredding machine.  And their browser enablers too.

Specify feet first.
[qph.fs.quoracdn.net image 480x360]

What is that from?


Kingsman Golden Circle, I think.
 
2020-04-12 12:08:29 AM  

I Like Bread: If you entered "less than a week" for how long it would take Democrats to stop courting the youth vote, step up and claim your prize.


It was kind of a losing battle.  If young people come out with broad support for Biden, his campaign will ignore them, assuming (mostly correctly) that their vote is in the bag.  If young people come out against Biden, then they would just lean even harder into the old conservative vote instead and vilify the youth in the process. Young people don't have money, so neither party really cares about them, especially the higher up you get. Old people seem happy to part with their cash and they're often easily fooled--just look at how many scams target old people.  That's a far better winning strategy.

And yes, young people vote less.  There are a great many structural reasons for this which cannot reasonably be ignored--"the youth are just entitled and lazy" is a facile, artless, offensive argument.  Hell, the reasons that young people don't have money are themselves structural.  This whole thing is self-perpetuating--young people can't get anyone important to pay attention to them because they lack money and power, and this means that legislation tends not to benefit them because no one has to answer to them (see also:  all poor people).  So young people scream into the abyss while old people tell them that maybe they'd get something done if they'd just stop eating all that avocado toast.
 
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