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(CNN)   Good news: Social distancing is working. Bad news: You may have to move your 4th of July BBQ to August   (cnn.com) divider line
    More: Sick, United States, Hospital, Scientific method, Futurology, Prediction, Additional data, newest version of the model underscores, important social distancing  
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2919 clicks; posted to Main » on 07 Apr 2020 at 6:19 PM (12 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2020-04-07 4:18:30 PM  
I am assuming any BBQ is postponed until September.
 
2020-04-07 4:51:38 PM  

harleyquinnical: I am assuming any BBQ is postponed until September.


I assumed 2021 at the earliest.  :\
 
2020-04-07 6:21:28 PM  
Tough shiat.  Keep it going.
 
2020-04-07 6:21:40 PM  
Do these stats take into account underreporting cases, or can we just slap a 2-4 multiplier on it?
 
2020-04-07 6:23:31 PM  

Cafe Threads: harleyquinnical: I am assuming any BBQ is postponed until September.

I assumed 2021 at the earliest.  :\


Probably a smart thing to assume and plan for. If it's actually earlier, bonus!
 
2020-04-07 6:23:49 PM  
That seems overly optimistic. Especially if they're not incorporating unreported deaths, which they're not, because they don't know about them.
 
2020-04-07 6:24:49 PM  
Donald Christ saved us!!

Or is it Jesus Trump?

Whatever it is, it wasn't the hard work and suffering of the people who kept us safe and the sacrifices we all have made.

Trump and Jesus, that is what saved us.  Oh, and the corporations/billionaires need another bailout.

Also, look forward to immunities to wear off by the fall.
 
2020-04-07 6:26:16 PM  
Soooo.... stock market goes up, right?
 
2020-04-07 6:26:31 PM  
California went from over 6000 predicted deaths a week ago to less than 1800 now. Hope they're right.
 
2020-04-07 6:27:13 PM  
fark that, I'm not lettin' tha deep state tell me what ta do, I'ma set up my hibachi right here on the carpe-FIRE! FIRE! FIRE!

HELP! SAVE ME DEEP STATE!
 
2020-04-07 6:27:23 PM  
Saw this online:  "Make social distancing easy.  Just pretend everyone you see is Mitch McConnell."
 
2020-04-07 6:28:20 PM  

Stibium: Do these stats take into account underreporting cases, or can we just slap a 2-4 multiplier on it?


If only. In Colorado it appears to be more like a 10x multiplier.
 
2020-04-07 6:29:48 PM  
I can't wait for Trump to take a victory lap over more dead than the Vietnam War. Which lasted 20 years.

In the afterlife LBJ must be questioning why he resigned.
 
2020-04-07 6:29:49 PM  

Stibium: Do these stats take into account underreporting cases, or can we just slap a 2-4 multiplier on it?


for some reason I read that as Mullet-tiplier
 
2020-04-07 6:30:34 PM  
No way they keep everyone locked down until mid summer. People are going to lose their shiat you'd need armed patrols in the streets to even try to enforce it.
 
2020-04-07 6:30:41 PM  
I have been tracking the data for this for a few weeks now.  Take a look at the Tableau links at the top.
We are finally starting to see less cases coming in, in the course of a day.  For a couple of days in a row.  So we may have hit the peak.

Having said that, we need to keep on doing what we're doing until the number of new cases is almost zero.  And from that point, we need to continue for another 2 weeks.

If we don't do that, this thing will ramp back up again almost immediately.
 
2020-04-07 6:31:05 PM  
meanwhile china is back to work now because in the first week they did social distancing without farcking around.

CCP : My function is to "Keep China safe", not "keep China being, like, totally stoked about, like, the general vibe, and stuff". That's the u.s.a , that's how they talk.
 
2020-04-07 6:32:05 PM  
Definitely not going to be able to do my annual trip to the Port Clinton/Marblehead/Put-In-Bay area.  By the time we're allowed to go anywhere it'll be winter again.
 
2020-04-07 6:32:10 PM  
Trump actually slipped many weeks ago and muttered "August" in his first or early ramblings press conferce/Chloroquin sales meeting.  I figured if a sane medical professional had told him "August" it was the first and most optimistic time horizon for "Are we there yet?" Trump.
 
2020-04-07 6:32:23 PM  
We're not going to get a summer this year.

ChimpMitten: Also, look forward to immunities to wear off by the fall.


Actually, early research indicates the virus isn't mutating very fast, so immunity might stick around a while.
 
2020-04-07 6:32:48 PM  
To quote a well-known phrase - all models are wrong, but some are useful. To that end, I don't believe any of the models that are trending lower (at least at a national level). I think models covering some states (like NJ/NY) are likely created with better data, but anyone claiming to know how this will all end is deluding themselves. I genuinely feel sorry for those living in southern states and/or under governors that refuse to follow public health recommendations. I mean, maybe I'm wrong but as near as I can tell the virus doesn't really care about anything other than getting from one human to the next.
 
KIA
2020-04-07 6:33:09 PM  

bluewave69: meanwhile china is back to work now because in the first week they did social distancing without farcking around.

CCP : My function is to "Keep China safe", not "keep China being, like, totally stoked about, like, the general vibe, and stuff". That's the u.s.a , that's how they talk.


If by that you mean they welded people into their apartments then lied their @sses off about the numbers of infections and dead, then sure, okay.  Whatever.
 
2020-04-07 6:33:30 PM  

harleyquinnical: I am assuming any BBQ is postponed until September.


Not according to my neighbors. They had a big family barbecue Sunday, seven cars in their drive and front of their house, lots of kids too.
 
2020-04-07 6:35:08 PM  
A least we aren't cremating people alive like they are in China.
 
2020-04-07 6:36:10 PM  

Fabric_Man: We're not going to get a summer this year.

ChimpMitten: Also, look forward to immunities to wear off by the fall.

Actually, early research indicates the virus isn't mutating very fast, so immunity might stick around a while.


Link?
 
2020-04-07 6:38:52 PM  
Flattening the curve only buys the hospitals time. To truly stop the infection everyone would need to completely isolate for the 2-week incubation time (and another 2-weeks after that incase a family member got it from another). But that would have to occur GLOBALLY all at the same time. Limiting infection spread keeps more people from getting the virus and dying, but it also keeps more people from getting the virus and recovering (gaining immunity). Anyone not infected is at risk for infection. So as long as there is one person infected, the virus will be able to easily (asymptomatically/pre-symptomatocally) spread among the non-exposed and trigger additional outbreaks.
 
2020-04-07 6:39:20 PM  

ChimpMitten: Fabric_Man: We're not going to get a summer this year.

ChimpMitten: Also, look forward to immunities to wear off by the fall.

Actually, early research indicates the virus isn't mutating very fast, so immunity might stick around a while.

Link?


Link
 
2020-04-07 6:39:29 PM  

xitnode: A least we aren't cremating people alive like they are in China.


I'm gonna have to insist on some clarification regarding this idiotic comment
 
2020-04-07 6:40:18 PM  
A) how do we know if we aren't testing anyone?
B) if it is true, then an August barbecue is a small price to pay.
 
2020-04-07 6:40:27 PM  
I'm lucky that I live in a sunny state, so I BBQ most nights, even in the winter.

Y'all are welcome to come over to my place any time and get something off the grill. I'll hand it to you over the fence. I don't have any fireworks at the moment, but I could throw a red hot charcoal briquette over the fence, if that would help.
 
2020-04-07 6:41:27 PM  

PunGent: Saw this online:  "Make social distancing easy.  Just pretend everyone you see is Mitch McConnell."


I'd end up in jail.
 
2020-04-07 6:41:34 PM  
ya i do believe they welded someone in but i think that was more of a exemple then anything else , people just got more scared of the virus , and well who wants to be send to Chinese prison because you went to jog, i follow quite a bit a vloggers etc and well vibe doesn't feel like they are shipping truck loads of corpse like nyc atm. heck u.s media been saying china numbers on everything where fake since like the late 90's yet if you go there (like i did a few years back ) you know that the numbers cant be that far off because things are booming lol.
 
2020-04-07 6:45:25 PM  

durbnpoisn: I have been tracking the data for this for a few weeks now.  Take a look at the Tableau links at the top.
We are finally starting to see less cases coming in, in the course of a day.  For a couple of days in a row.  So we may have hit the peak.

Having said that, we need to keep on doing what we're doing until the number of new cases is almost zero.  And from that point, we need to continue for another 2 weeks.

If we don't do that, this thing will ramp back up again almost immediately.


We can't stop this virus. We can only flatten the curve. It won't be flattened to a line. We don't have a vaccine for it and won't for more than a year if we ever do. The only realistic way to protect us is with herd immunity which kicks in somewhere between 60% and 70%. Getting to herd immunity as soon as possible is what we should be doing.  Set up a feedback loop and keep the hospitals at near capacity. If they start emptying out, open up social distancing a bit to fill them up. They get near capacity, clamp it back down.  Wash, rinse, repeat.  It's not a question of if you get the Rona, but when.

It's a balancing act because a destroyed economy can also be measured in lives.
 
2020-04-07 6:46:36 PM  

Benjimin_Dover: durbnpoisn: I have been tracking the data for this for a few weeks now.  Take a look at the Tableau links at the top.
We are finally starting to see less cases coming in, in the course of a day.  For a couple of days in a row.  So we may have hit the peak.

Having said that, we need to keep on doing what we're doing until the number of new cases is almost zero.  And from that point, we need to continue for another 2 weeks.

If we don't do that, this thing will ramp back up again almost immediately.

We can't stop this virus. We can only flatten the curve. It won't be flattened to a line. We don't have a vaccine for it and won't for more than a year if we ever do. The only realistic way to protect us is with herd immunity which kicks in somewhere between 60% and 70%. Getting to herd immunity as soon as possible is what we should be doing.  Set up a feedback loop and keep the hospitals at near capacity. If they start emptying out, open up social distancing a bit to fill them up. They get near capacity, clamp it back down.  Wash, rinse, repeat.  It's not a question of if you get the Rona, but when.

It's a balancing act because a destroyed economy can also be measured in lives.


Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-04-07 6:46:58 PM  

ChimpMitten: Fabric_Man: We're not going to get a summer this year.

ChimpMitten: Also, look forward to immunities to wear off by the fall.

Actually, early research indicates the virus isn't mutating very fast, so immunity might stick around a while.

Link?


The coronaviruses do not have a segmented RNA genome like influenza viruses.

The 8 piece influenza genome gets shuffled around and reassorts with other flu strains causing rapid mutation that makes new viruses every year. So even though the immune system will never get caught off guard by an old virus, the new ones are different enough (different spikes) that the neutralizing antibodies no longer work on those new spikes.

Coronaviruses mutates
slower than flu, faster than DNA viruses. It is likely that the immune system of recovered individuals would not wane by the fall. The virus will mutate but will eventually become an endemic virus which hopefully most people would maintains some level of protection against.
 
2020-04-07 6:47:43 PM  
But fire cleanses all. So having a BBQ should make us all safer.
 
2020-04-07 6:48:06 PM  

bluewave69: meanwhile china is back to work now because in the first week they did social distancing without farcking around.

CCP : My function is to "Keep China safe", not "keep China being, like, totally stoked about, like, the general vibe, and stuff". That's the u.s.a , that's how they talk.


Um... "Back to work" in Wuhan, right now, is stricter than what we're calling "lockdown" here.
 
2020-04-07 6:48:51 PM  
So, I was playing Spider-Man on the PS4 to get my mind off of all this yesterday, and got to the point in the game where the Sinister Six unleashes a bioweapon on NYC:

Fark user imageView Full Size

Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-04-07 6:50:05 PM  

Spectrum: California went from over 6000 predicted deaths a week ago to less than 1800 now. Hope they're right.


Good, but I'd be inclined to disregard the number predicted and watch the actual numbers.  Two thousand next week is still better than 6000 predicted, but going the wrong way.
 
2020-04-07 6:50:59 PM  

Benjimin_Dover: durbnpoisn: I have been tracking the data for this for a few weeks now.  Take a look at the Tableau links at the top.
We are finally starting to see less cases coming in, in the course of a day.  For a couple of days in a row.  So we may have hit the peak.

Having said that, we need to keep on doing what we're doing until the number of new cases is almost zero.  And from that point, we need to continue for another 2 weeks.

If we don't do that, this thing will ramp back up again almost immediately.

We can't stop this virus. We can only flatten the curve. It won't be flattened to a line. We don't have a vaccine for it and won't for more than a year if we ever do. The only realistic way to protect us is with herd immunity which kicks in somewhere between 60% and 70%. Getting to herd immunity as soon as possible is what we should be doing.  Set up a feedback loop and keep the hospitals at near capacity. If they start emptying out, open up social distancing a bit to fill them up. They get near capacity, clamp it back down.  Wash, rinse, repeat.  It's not a question of if you get the Rona, but when.

It's a balancing act because a destroyed economy can also be measured in lives.


The difference being that the lives lost/ruined by a 'destroyed economy' are far more preventable than the lives lost due to COVID-19. But preventing them would require capitalism to be reined in and restricted with a healthy dose of socialism...and in the process, admitting that conservative talking points are bullshiat.
 
2020-04-07 6:52:26 PM  
So what does a virus gain by killing its host?
 
2020-04-07 6:56:48 PM  

hamsack: So what does a virus gain by killing its host?


A virus is designed to highjacks cells and make more copies of itself. If the host dies before it spreads more virus, the virus would die out. However this virus is only killing 1% of those infected (<1% under 40ish and ~10% >80ish). So most hosts are just spreading it around.

It's a good wittle virus, yes it is bahbahbahbah
 
2020-04-07 6:57:24 PM  

xitnode: A least we aren't cremating people alive like they are in China.


Paradoxical.  Cremation pertains to disposal of dead bodies.
The word you're looking for is "immolating".  Perhaps at some point the immolation turns into cremation, though.

/ pet peave
 
2020-04-07 6:57:48 PM  

The Dog Ate My Homework: Stibium: Do these stats take into account underreporting cases, or can we just slap a 2-4 multiplier on it?

If only. In Colorado it appears to be more like a 10x multiplier.


BYOB bra...

/bring your own bong
//and your own grass.
///I'm almost out.
 
2020-04-07 6:57:58 PM  

Mad_Radhu: So, I was playing Spider-Man on the PS4 to get my mind off of all this yesterday, and got to the point in the game where the Sinister Six unleashes a bioweapon on NYC:

[Fark user image image 425x566]
[Fark user image image 425x318]


Wow. They nailed it.
 
2020-04-07 7:03:56 PM  

The Dog Ate My Homework: Stibium: Do these stats take into account underreporting cases, or can we just slap a 2-4 multiplier on it?

If only. In Colorado it appears to be more like a 10x multiplier.


How do you truly know though? And a lot of people who die from C19 are being written up as pneumonia or heart failures rather than C19. Really, without aggressive testing we have no idea what the actual death/case rates are.
 
2020-04-07 7:04:10 PM  

hamsack: So what does a virus gain by killing its host?


Viruses aren't sentient. We don't even consider them living things like we do with single celled organisms. It has a DNA, but it doesn't even create a cell structure. It isn't trying to get anything, it's just a string of proteins that replicates itself when it comes into contact with cellular life.
 
2020-04-07 7:06:20 PM  
i wasn't saying turning full authoritarian forever was the solution. thing is with like any other president and some competent administration , they could come out and say ok well we shutdown everything at gun point it's going to last a month or 2 then we are back to real normal and most people would be ok with it. because they would have the confidence that it's not just a power grab and that things would revert back to normal.

now instead of suppressing it worldwide, it's going to be running around long enough to become seasonal. it's a dumb choice. and well Canada will be joining you in the dumb category because it was sunny today and looking out the windows there was a ungodly amount of people taking walks and chatting with everybody they met.
 
2020-04-07 7:08:13 PM  
August - wasn't that flaming tornado on the Apocalypse calendar? Better than giant robot kaiju for the 4th of July though.
 
2020-04-07 7:10:35 PM  

RTOGUY: No way they keep everyone locked down until mid summer. People are going to lose their shiat you'd need armed patrols in the streets to even try to enforce it.


And this is what I actually came to post about. Americans have lived relatively cushy lives and even this last two weeks domestic violence is up, you have murder/suicides, people acting all sorts of irrational. Being stuck inside and possibly out of work and having to deal with the crotch fruit 24-7 is something one would seem to be able to cope with, but like you said they are gonna lose their shiat.

Hell, I feel stressed out but not about mostly being stuck at home but over the political future of this country. I think things are going to get exponentially worse between now and October.
 
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