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(Newsweek)   Two weeks into the nationwide lockdown and Italy sees its Coronavirus deaths skyrocket   (newsweek.com) divider line
    More: Followup, Medicine, Health care, Universal health care, Italy, Health economics, New York City, Health, Public health  
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4340 clicks; posted to Main » on 22 Mar 2020 at 4:50 AM (15 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest


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2020-03-21 10:36:36 PM  
Yeah lagging indicators how do they work.
 
2020-03-21 11:10:13 PM  
When it takes up to two weeks to even show symptoms, this is not a surprise at all.
 
2020-03-21 11:35:56 PM  

swaniefrmreddeer: When it takes up to two weeks to even show symptoms, this is not a surprise at all.


It'll be a surprise to the two clowns running the show and 55% of americans who think they are doing a good job
 
2020-03-21 11:44:42 PM  
Now just imagine what the situation would be had they not had people stay home.
 
2020-03-22 1:28:51 AM  
It's an ominous sign for the entire nation.  One every person who's been paying attention has expected.
 
2020-03-22 4:15:19 AM  
So deaths have skyrocketed to 0.008 percent of the population?

Did I do the math wrong?
 
2020-03-22 4:53:55 AM  

bingethinker: So deaths have skyrocketed to 0.008 percent of the population?

Did I do the math wrong?


You did the important part of the math wrong, yes.  Don't worry, you've got lots of company.
 
2020-03-22 4:56:54 AM  

bingethinker: So deaths have skyrocketed to 0.008 percent of the population?

Did I do the math wrong?


Any number can be made to seem insignificant when you turn it into a comparative percentage of a much larger number. More from How To Lie With Statistics after these messages!
 
2020-03-22 4:57:49 AM  

bingethinker: So deaths have skyrocketed to 0.008 percent of the population?

Did I do the math wrong?


That may well be the stupidest thing I've read all day, but it's only 1:57 AM here, so that's a pretty low bar to reach.

/ you get a complementary ignore anyway
 
2020-03-22 5:00:20 AM  

i ignore u: bingethinker: So deaths have skyrocketed to 0.008 percent of the population?

Did I do the math wrong?

That may well be the stupidest thing I've read all day, but it's only 1:57 AM here, so that's a pretty low bar to reach.

/ you get a complementary ignore anyway


user name checks out

/but not the former
 
2020-03-22 5:00:56 AM  
The daily death rate is not an interesting statistic if you're trying to track the current spread of the disease.  People who die were infected weeks ago, started showing symptoms a few days later, have been hospitalized for a while and then moved to ICU, and then finally died.

Also as hospitals get overwhelmed the deaths will increase.  Not because the virus is spreading more, but because people who already had it don't get the care they need to survive a few more days.

It's much better to track daily new infections.
 
2020-03-22 5:03:12 AM  

bingethinker: So deaths have skyrocketed to 0.008 percent of the population?

Did I do the math wrong?


How does that compare to average deaths per day in Italy?
 
2020-03-22 5:03:18 AM  

Dr. DJ Duckhunt: i ignore u: bingethinker: So deaths have skyrocketed to 0.008 percent of the population?

Did I do the math wrong?

That may well be the stupidest thing I've read all day, but it's only 1:57 AM here, so that's a pretty low bar to reach.

/ you get a complementary ignore anyway

user name checks out

/but not the former


What does that even mean?  Are you taking the position that deaths as a percentage of total population is a meaningful statistic?  I might have to give you a freebie if that's the case.
 
2020-03-22 5:07:50 AM  

i ignore u: The daily death rate is not an interesting statistic if you're trying to track the current spread of the disease.  People who die were infected weeks ago, started showing symptoms a few days later, have been hospitalized for a while and then moved to ICU, and then finally died.

Also as hospitals get overwhelmed the deaths will increase.  Not because the virus is spreading more, but because people who already had it don't get the care they need to survive a few more days.

It's much better to track daily new infections.


It's interesting if you're behind that country in spread and on the same trajectory.  Being first in the case means everyone else can try and avoid the same mistakes.
 
2020-03-22 5:08:22 AM  

bingethinker: So deaths have skyrocketed to 0.008 percent of the population?

Did I do the math wrong?


4,824+ people. Flash in the pan, really.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronav​i​rus/country/italy/
 
2020-03-22 5:11:28 AM  

i ignore u: Dr. DJ Duckhunt: i ignore u: bingethinker: So deaths have skyrocketed to 0.008 percent of the population?

Did I do the math wrong?

That may well be the stupidest thing I've read all day, but it's only 1:57 AM here, so that's a pretty low bar to reach.

/ you get a complementary ignore anyway

user name checks out

/but not the former

What does that even mean?  Are you taking the position that deaths as a percentage of total population is a meaningful statistic?  I might have to give you a freebie if that's the case.


No, I mean that your name is "I ignore you" and you are giving away a complimentary ignore.

The other guy is named bingethinker yet he seems not to do so.

that's all
 
2020-03-22 5:13:55 AM  

bhcompy: i ignore u: The daily death rate is not an interesting statistic if you're trying to track the current spread of the disease.  People who die were infected weeks ago, started showing symptoms a few days later, have been hospitalized for a while and then moved to ICU, and then finally died.

Also as hospitals get overwhelmed the deaths will increase.  Not because the virus is spreading more, but because people who already had it don't get the care they need to survive a few more days.

It's much better to track daily new infections.

It's interesting if you're behind that country in spread and on the same trajectory.  Being first in the case means everyone else can try and avoid the same mistakes.


No, it's the wrong statistic to track if you're trying to contain the spread.  The death count is a function of the total number of infections and the medical care available.  Track new infections to see if containment measures are working, not the number of deaths.
 
2020-03-22 5:14:34 AM  

i ignore u: bhcompy: i ignore u: The daily death rate is not an interesting statistic if you're trying to track the current spread of the disease.  People who die were infected weeks ago, started showing symptoms a few days later, have been hospitalized for a while and then moved to ICU, and then finally died.

Also as hospitals get overwhelmed the deaths will increase.  Not because the virus is spreading more, but because people who already had it don't get the care they need to survive a few more days.

It's much better to track daily new infections.

It's interesting if you're behind that country in spread and on the same trajectory.  Being first in the case means everyone else can try and avoid the same mistakes.

No, it's the wrong statistic to track if you're trying to contain the spread.  The death count is a function of the total number of infections and the medical care available.  Track new infections to see if containment measures are working, not the number of deaths.


Also it lags by several weeks, as I already explained.
 
2020-03-22 5:18:09 AM  

Dr. DJ Duckhunt: i ignore u: Dr. DJ Duckhunt: i ignore u: bingethinker: So deaths have skyrocketed to 0.008 percent of the population?

Did I do the math wrong?

That may well be the stupidest thing I've read all day, but it's only 1:57 AM here, so that's a pretty low bar to reach.

/ you get a complementary ignore anyway

user name checks out

/but not the former

What does that even mean?  Are you taking the position that deaths as a percentage of total population is a meaningful statistic?  I might have to give you a freebie if that's the case.

No, I mean that your name is "I ignore you" and you are giving away a complimentary ignore.

The other guy is named bingethinker yet he seems not to do so.

that's all


Oh I see.  Here we are, and when usernames collide the results are sometimes hilarious.  Arguing mode deactivated.  Adjust opinion +1.
 
2020-03-22 5:24:13 AM  

i ignore u: bhcompy: i ignore u: The daily death rate is not an interesting statistic if you're trying to track the current spread of the disease.  People who die were infected weeks ago, started showing symptoms a few days later, have been hospitalized for a while and then moved to ICU, and then finally died.

Also as hospitals get overwhelmed the deaths will increase.  Not because the virus is spreading more, but because people who already had it don't get the care they need to survive a few more days.

It's much better to track daily new infections.

It's interesting if you're behind that country in spread and on the same trajectory.  Being first in the case means everyone else can try and avoid the same mistakes.

No, it's the wrong statistic to track if you're trying to contain the spread.  The death count is a function of the total number of infections and the medical care available.  Track new infections to see if containment measures are working, not the number of deaths.


Yes and understanding what is happening when you're 11 days behind the curve is really goddamned important.  Italy is a worst case scenario for a Western country, and knowing what that looks like helps get everyone else in line.  Regardless, we're past containment.  Doctors are being directed to only test those who testing will help.  We're in the damage control phase, now, before Italy entered that phase, because we can see what will happen in the next 10 days already.

Also, you're making it seem like tracking numbers is a zero sum game, as if tracking deaths is somehow something that takes away from tracking new infections.
 
2020-03-22 5:26:39 AM  

i ignore u: Dr. DJ Duckhunt: i ignore u: Dr. DJ Duckhunt: i ignore u: bingethinker: So deaths have skyrocketed to 0.008 percent of the population?

Did I do the math wrong?

That may well be the stupidest thing I've read all day, but it's only 1:57 AM here, so that's a pretty low bar to reach.

/ you get a complementary ignore anyway

user name checks out

/but not the former

What does that even mean?  Are you taking the position that deaths as a percentage of total population is a meaningful statistic?  I might have to give you a freebie if that's the case.

No, I mean that your name is "I ignore you" and you are giving away a complimentary ignore.

The other guy is named bingethinker yet he seems not to do so.

that's all

Oh I see.  Here we are, and when usernames collide the results are sometimes hilarious.  Arguing mode deactivated.  Adjust opinion +1.


Sadly, there are far too few situations to invoke my user name. :( stay safe out there!
 
2020-03-22 5:29:35 AM  
The trouble with tracking new infections is that it is so dependent on the number of people tested.
 
2020-03-22 5:39:18 AM  
2 weeks incubation period on average. Hmmmmm.

Nope, gotta be something else, i guess.
 
2020-03-22 6:05:14 AM  

kevinatilusa: The trouble with tracking new infections is that it is so dependent on the number of people tested.


True, but I think it's the least worst option.  Feel free to propose another practical metric that we could use right now, or soon.
 
2020-03-22 6:10:02 AM  

Smoking GNU: 2 weeks incubation period on average. Hmmmmm.

Nope, gotta be something else, i guess.


Are you memory impaired?  You've said this same thing before, and people have shot it down before.

So one more time:
- The average time between exposure and symptoms is about 5 days.
- After 14 days 99% of infected people have shown symptoms, so only 1% of people may be infectious after 14 days.
- By the time you have symptoms, and self-quarantine because you're not an asshole (are you?), your quarantine period is down to like 7 days after the end of symptoms.

/ seriously, are you memory impaired?  I'll try not to make fun of you in that case.
 
2020-03-22 6:10:43 AM  

Exluddite: Now just imagine what the situation would be had they not had people stay home.


Part of the problem is that Italy hasn't had people stay home to the extent China did. They're gradually tightening restrictions, including some outdoor exercise and pet-walking restrictions that went into effect Friday, but even so, people can shop whenever they deem it "necessary", and enforcement is lax.

In the US, the president leaves restrictions up to states, some states leave it up to cities, and some cities leave it up to individuals, so you wind up with massive beach gatherings along Florida's east coast. There will always be people who disagree with any restrictions, whether they're sick or not. The pictures from China of hazmat-suited officers literally dragging people to guarded "health facilities" were disturbing, but limiting enforcement to verbal advice/warnings or writing tickets won't contain the spread.

The latest NPR/PBS/Marist survey in the US found 14% of Republicans were "not concerned at all about the spread of coronavirus in their community", and 27% were "not very concerned"...that's about a quarter of our population. [source, page 10].
 
2020-03-22 6:28:14 AM  
I have read that Italy has some unique attributes that work to crank up its death rate. Among them is that 1) it's the second oldest country in the world, so it's got more of the demographic that's most vulnerable, and 2) they attribute deaths to coronvirus if people die for any reason and test positive. So if you get hit by a truck or have a heart attack and also happen to test positive, your death is attributed to coronavirus.
 
2020-03-22 6:29:17 AM  

i ignore u: Dr. DJ Duckhunt: i ignore u: Dr. DJ Duckhunt: i ignore u: bingethinker: So deaths have skyrocketed to 0.008 percent of the population?

Did I do the math wrong?

That may well be the stupidest thing I've read all day, but it's only 1:57 AM here, so that's a pretty low bar to reach.

/ you get a complementary ignore anyway

user name checks out

/but not the former

What does that even mean?  Are you taking the position that deaths as a percentage of total population is a meaningful statistic?  I might have to give you a freebie if that's the case.

No, I mean that your name is "I ignore you" and you are giving away a complimentary ignore.

The other guy is named bingethinker yet he seems not to do so.

that's all

Oh I see.  Here we are, and when usernames collide the results are sometimes hilarious.  Arguing mode deactivated.  Adjust opinion +1.


... it's too early for this. Feel free to ignore me too my brain hurts from your lack of comprehension.

/gets coffee
 
2020-03-22 6:38:33 AM  

jjorsett: I have read that Italy has some unique attributes that work to crank up its death rate. Among them is that 1) it's the second oldest country in the world, so it's got more of the demographic that's most vulnerable, and 2) they attribute deaths to coronvirus if people die for any reason and test positive. So if you get hit by a truck or have a heart attack and also happen to test positive, your death is attributed to coronavirus.


Your second point doesn't even remotely pass a bullshiat test... it absolutely reeks of it, yet you are incapable of filtering that out and not repeating it like a parrot?
 
2020-03-22 6:38:58 AM  

jjorsett: I have read that Italy has some unique attributes that work to crank up its death rate. Among them is that 1) it's the second oldest country in the world, so it's got more of the demographic that's most vulnerable, and 2) they attribute deaths to coronvirus if people die for any reason and test positive. So if you get hit by a truck or have a heart attack and also happen to test positive, your death is attributed to coronavirus.


This doesn't seem true. At all.
 
2020-03-22 6:43:31 AM  

Exluddite: Now just imagine what the situation would be had they not had people stay home.


Yes, packing multigenerational families into small flats in close proximity to each other is definitely the way to go. It's a tried and tested technique which works well on cruise liners.
 
2020-03-22 6:45:17 AM  

uttertosh: Any number can be made to seem insignificant when you turn it into a comparative percentage of a much larger number.


And any number can be made to seem more significant when presented without context. It's very hard to get sensible information about this crisis when half the sources are trying to exaggerate for effect and half are trying to minimise for effect.
 
2020-03-22 6:46:24 AM  
Italian women are the most pulchritudinous
 
2020-03-22 6:48:17 AM  

JerryHeisenberg: 4,824+ people. Flash in the pan, really.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavi​rus/country/italy/


In a normal March about 60,000 Italians die. The average age of those dying of coronavirus is 78.5 (BBC, yesterday). Over the whole year, the effect may not be quite as dramatic as it undeniably looks now.
 
2020-03-22 6:49:27 AM  
I wonder what it would be like if they spent weeks saying it was just a flu.
 
2020-03-22 6:49:36 AM  

jjorsett: I have read that Italy has some unique attributes that work to crank up its death rate. Among them is that 1) it's the second oldest country in the world, so it's got more of the demographic that's most vulnerable, and 2) they attribute deaths to coronvirus if people die for any reason and test positive. So if you get hit by a truck or have a heart attack and also happen to test positive, your death is attributed to coronavirus.


This post gave me fremdschamen.
 
2020-03-22 6:50:42 AM  

i ignore u: - By the time you have symptoms, and self-quarantine because you're not an asshole (are you?), your quarantine period is down to like 7 days after the end of symptoms.


I wonder if we'll need some sort of standard badge - issued by doctors - to say "I've had it and recovered". That might be quite important later when we'll want to quarantine as many people as need it but release as many as we can from the restrictions.
 
2020-03-22 6:57:58 AM  

orbister: JerryHeisenberg: 4,824+ people. Flash in the pan, really.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavi​rus/country/italy/

In a normal March about 60,000 Italians die. The average age of those dying of coronavirus is 78.5 (BBC, yesterday). Over the whole year, the effect may not be quite as dramatic as it undeniably looks now.


Sure. Do Italian hospitals run out of resources and beds in a normal March?
 
2020-03-22 7:02:32 AM  

not enough beer: Yeah lagging indicators how do they work.


Indeed. Here is Italy today:

Fark user imageView Full Size

And this is the US:

Fark user imageView Full Size

"Some arbitrary starting point" is March 1st.

Two obvious observations: Italy is on an exponent that grows much more slowly than the US, and it appears, although inconclusively, that their measures from the end of February are starting to have an effect today.
 
2020-03-22 7:02:53 AM  
Covid-19 has a median incubation time - from infection to symptoms - of 5 days.
When ICU is needed, the median time from symptoms to ICU is 11 days.
In fatal cases, the median time from symptoms to death is 19 days.
So, the median time from infection to ICU is 16 days, and the median time from infection to death is 24 days.

1. Italy began their lockdown of Northern Italy on March 8
2. Extended the lockdown to the rest of Italy with travel and gatherings restrictions on March 10
3. Further restricted retail to only groceries and pharmacies on March 11
4. Ordered even tighter restrictions on movement on March 20
5. Halted all non-essential production, industries and businesses on March 21

The effects against the daily death counts of the first iteration of the lockdown on March 8 won't become apparent until the last few days of March.

Only some of the states in the US have begun their lockdowns this past week. The effects of those efforts will not become apparent until the second week of April. The states that are still in denial are pushing themselves into the second half of April and beyond.
 
2020-03-22 7:11:48 AM  

evilsofa: Covid-19 has a median incubation time - from infection to symptoms ...etc...


Very informative; I regret that I have but +1 Smart to give.
 
2020-03-22 7:20:59 AM  

JerryHeisenberg: orbister: JerryHeisenberg: 4,824+ people. Flash in the pan, really.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavi​rus/country/italy/

In a normal March about 60,000 Italians die. The average age of those dying of coronavirus is 78.5 (BBC, yesterday). Over the whole year, the effect may not be quite as dramatic as it undeniably looks now.

Sure. Do Italian hospitals run out of resources and beds in a normal March?


This is not a normal March. It's a March in which an awful lot of people who would have died later in the year (and others) are dying and these deaths are concentrated in a relatively small area of the country.  It's been in the news.
 
2020-03-22 7:23:21 AM  

Beginning of the end: i ignore u: Dr. DJ Duckhunt: i ignore u: Dr. DJ Duckhunt: i ignore u: bingethinker: So deaths have skyrocketed to 0.008 percent of the population?

Did I do the math wrong?

That may well be the stupidest thing I've read all day, but it's only 1:57 AM here, so that's a pretty low bar to reach.

/ you get a complementary ignore anyway

user name checks out

/but not the former

What does that even mean?  Are you taking the position that deaths as a percentage of total population is a meaningful statistic?  I might have to give you a freebie if that's the case.

No, I mean that your name is "I ignore you" and you are giving away a complimentary ignore.

The other guy is named bingethinker yet he seems not to do so.

that's all

Oh I see.  Here we are, and when usernames collide the results are sometimes hilarious.  Arguing mode deactivated.  Adjust opinion +1.

... it's too early for this. Feel free to ignore me too my brain hurts from your lack of comprehension.

/gets coffee


Challenge accepted.
 
2020-03-22 7:24:50 AM  

cman: Italian women are the most pulchritudinous


Word of the day toilet paper?
 
2020-03-22 7:32:41 AM  

Dr. DJ Duckhunt: i ignore u: Dr. DJ Duckhunt: i ignore u: Dr. DJ Duckhunt: i ignore u: bingethinker: So deaths have skyrocketed to 0.008 percent of the population?

Did I do the math wrong?

That may well be the stupidest thing I've read all day, but it's only 1:57 AM here, so that's a pretty low bar to reach.

/ you get a complementary ignore anyway

user name checks out

/but not the former

What does that even mean?  Are you taking the position that deaths as a percentage of total population is a meaningful statistic?  I might have to give you a freebie if that's the case.

No, I mean that your name is "I ignore you" and you are giving away a complimentary ignore.

The other guy is named bingethinker yet he seems not to do so.

that's all

Oh I see.  Here we are, and when usernames collide the results are sometimes hilarious.  Arguing mode deactivated.  Adjust opinion +1.

Sadly, there are far too few situations to invoke my user name. :( stay safe out there!


Oh I don't know, on a fairly regular basis I see the laughing dog from the Nintendo (?) game with part of your name.  You just need to get out there and circulate more ... wait, that won't work these days... hmmm

/there's a reason I now avoid most gun debates around here
 
2020-03-22 7:38:05 AM  

pup.socket: it appears, although inconclusively, that their measures from the end of February are starting to have an effect today.


It takes about ~3 weeks for everyone that's infected to develop maximum symptoms, so that makes sense.
 
2020-03-22 7:41:41 AM  

cman: Italian women are the most pulchritudinous


You need to spend some time on the Croatian coast.  But same neighborhood.
 
2020-03-22 8:02:06 AM  

jjorsett: I have read that Italy has some unique attributes that work to crank up its death rate. Among them is that 1) it's the second oldest country in the world, so it's got more of the demographic that's most vulnerable, and 2) they attribute deaths to coronvirus if people die for any reason and test positive. So if you get hit by a truck or have a heart attack and also happen to test positive, your death is attributed to coronavirus.


Italy - Coronavirus deaths
Sat Feb 29 - 8
Sat Mar 07 - 36
Sat Mar 14 - 175
Sat Mar 21 - 793

That's a lot ot trucks.
 
2020-03-22 8:22:38 AM  
Italy does have a few problems that might explain it.  Elderly population, high rates of smoking, pollution problems.

But also, the way they record deaths might be over-inflating the actual number of Wuhan virus tests:  if you test positive for it, even if you die from some other cause, it's recorded as a Wuhan virus death.

It's entirely possible that in Italy if you die from injuries related to, say, a car crash, but you test positive for the virus, your death is counted in the statistics for Wuhan deaths.
 
2020-03-22 8:31:52 AM  

dittybopper: Italy does have a few problems that might explain it.  Elderly population, high rates of smoking, pollution problems.

But also, the way they record deaths might be over-inflating the actual number of Wuhan virus tests:  if you test positive for it, even if you die from some other cause, it's recorded as a Wuhan virus death.

It's entirely possible that in Italy if you die from injuries related to, say, a car crash, but you test positive for the virus, your death is counted in the statistics for Wuhan deaths.


800 fatal car crashes in one night. Yeah, that's it!!

SMH
 
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