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(CNN)   Well no, the hospital ships won't be there for a couple weeks. How long can you tread virus?   (cnn.com) divider line
    More: Followup, The Pentagon, Hospital, United States Navy, United States Department of Defense, Physician, Ship, Hospital ship, Abbie Hoffman  
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1383 clicks; posted to Politics » on 19 Mar 2020 at 3:05 AM (15 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2020-03-18 8:18:56 PM  
Really? The president declares a state of health emergency and the Navy doesn't even start prepping Hospital ships to deploy. I wonder who changed that protocol?
 
2020-03-18 8:21:11 PM  
Well he did that like Friday. It takes awhile to get one ready and without orders the Navy won't do shiat.
 
2020-03-18 8:25:13 PM  

not enough beer: Well he did that like Friday. It takes awhile to get one ready and without orders the Navy won't do shiat.


Trump's incompetence is again causing a real danger to US National security. Be happy it is a pandemic otherwise something unpleasant could happen.
Normally a NSC official word have spun up the ships in January.
 
2020-03-18 8:27:57 PM  

eurotrader: not enough beer: Well he did that like Friday. It takes awhile to get one ready and without orders the Navy won't do shiat.

Trump's incompetence is again causing a real danger to US National security. Be happy it is a pandemic otherwise something unpleasant could happen.
Normally a NSC official word have spun up the ships in January.


Yeah if only he hadn't fired the global health response unit of the NSC.
 
2020-03-18 8:32:35 PM  
From a facebook share:

Joel Strehl
21 hrsI am a surgeon and critical care physician. I rarely post-and almost never post about medical related issues. This is different. I would STRONGLY recommend everyone take 5 minutes and read this. Don't panic, but please be smart and follow the guidelines.
We can now read the report on COVID-19 that so terrified every public health manager and head of state from Boris Johnson to Donald Trump to the dictator of El Salvador that they ordered people to stay in their houses. I read it yesterday afternoon and haven't been the same since. I urge everyone to read it, but maybe have a drink first, or have your family around you. It is absolutely terrifying. The New York TImes confirms that the CDC and global leaders are treating it as factual.
Here's a brief rundown of what I'm seeing in here. Please correct me in comments if I'm wrong.
The COVID-19 response team at Imperial College in London obtained what appears to be the first accurate dataset of infection and death rates from China, Korea, and Italy. They plugged those numbers into widely available epidemic modeling software and ran a simulation: what would happen if the United States did absolutely nothing -- if we treated COVID-19 like the flu, went about business as usual, and let the virus take its course?
Here's what would happen: 80% of Americans would get the disease. 0.9% of them would die. Between 4 and 8 percent of all Americans over the age of 70 would die. 2.2 million Americans would die from the virus itself.
It gets worse. Most people who are in danger of dying from COVID-19 need to be put on ventilators. 50% of those put on ventilators still die, but the other 50% live. But in an unmitigated epidemic, the need for ventilators would be 30 times the number of ventilators in the United States. Virtually no one who needed a ventilator would get one. 100% of patients who need ventilators would die if they didn't get one. So the actual death toll from the virus would be closer to 4 million Americans -- in a span of 3 months. 8-15% of all Americans over 70 would die.
How many people is 4 million Americans? It's more Americans than have died all at once from anything, ever. It's the population of Los Angeles. It's four times the number of Americans who died in the Civil War...on both sides combined. It's two-thirds as many people as died in the Holocaust.
Americans make up 4.4% of the world's population. So if we simply extrapolate these numbers to the rest of the world -- now we're getting into really fuzzy estimates, so the margin of error is pretty great here -- this gives us 90 million deaths globally from COVID-19. That's 15 Holocausts. That's 1.5 times as many people as died in World War II, over 12 years. This would take 3-6 months.
Now, it's unrealistic to assume that countries wouldn't do ANYTHING to fight the virus once people started dying. So the Imperial College team ran the numbers again, this time assuming a "mitigation" strategy. A mitigation strategy is pretty much what common sense would tell us to do: America places all symptomatic cases of the disease in isolation. It quarantines their families for 14 days. It orders all Americans over 70 to practice social distancing. This is what you've seen a lot of people talking about when they say we should "flatten the curve": try to slow the spread of the disease to the people most likely to die from it, to avoid overwhelming hospitals.
And it does flatten the curve -- but not nearly enough. The death rate from the disease is cut in half, but it still kills 1.1 million Americans all by itself. The peak need for ventilators falls by two-thirds, but it still exceeds the number of ventilators in the US by eight times, meaning most people who need ventilators still don't get them. That leaves the actual death toll in the US at right around 2 million deaths. The population of Houston. Two civil wars. One-third of the Holocaust. Globally, 45 million people die: 7.5 Holocausts, 3/4 of World War II. That's what happens if we use common sense: the worst death toll from a single cause since the Middle Ages.
Finally, the Imperial College team ran the numbers a third time, this time assuming a "suppression" strategy. In addition to isolating symptomatic cases and quarantining their family members, they also simulated social distancing for the entire population. All public gatherings and most workplaces shut down. Schools and universities close. (Note that these simulations assumed a realistic rate of adherence to these requirements, around 70-75% adherence, not that everyone follows them perfectly.) This is basically what we are seeing happen in the United States today.
This time it works! The death rate in the US peaks three weeks from now at a few thousand deaths, then goes down. We hit, but don't exceed (at least not by very much), the number of available ventilators. The nightmarish death tolls from the rest of the study disappear; COVID-19 goes down in the books as a bad flu instead of the Black Death.
But here's the catch: if we EVER relax these requirements before a vaccine is administered to the entire population, COVID-19 comes right back and kills millions of Americans in a few months, the same as before. The simulation does indicate that, after the first suppression period (lasting from now until July), we could probably lift restrictions for a month, followed by two more months of suppression, in a repeating pattern without triggering an outbreak or overwhelming the ventilator supply. If we staggered these suppression breaks based on local conditions, we might be able to do a bit better. But we simply cannot ever allow the virus to spread throughout the entire population in the way other viruses do, because it is just too deadly. If lots of people we know end up getting COVID-19, it means millions of Americans are dying. It simply can't be allowed to happen.
How quickly will a vaccine be here? Already, medical ethics have been pushed to the limit to deliver one. COVID-19 was first discovered a few months ago. Last week, three separate research teams announced they had developed vaccines. Yesterday, one of them (with FDA approval) injected its vaccine into a live person, without waiting for animal testing. Now, though, they have to monitor the test subject for fourteen months to make sure the vaccine is safe. This is the part of the testing that can't be rushed: the plan is to inoculate the entire human population, so if the vaccine itself turned out to be lethal for some reason, it could potentially kill all humans, which is a lot worse than 90 million deaths. Assuming the vaccine is safe and effective, it will still take several months to produce enough to inoculate the global population. For this reason, the Imperial College team estimated it will be about 18 months until the vaccine is available.
During those 18 months, things are going to be very difficult and very scary. Our economy and our society will be disrupted in profound ways. Worst of all, if the suppression policies actually work, it will feel like we are doing all this for nothing, because the infection and death rates will be very low. It's easy to get people to come together in common sacrifice in the middle of a war. It's very hard to get them to do so in a pandemic that looks invisible precisely because suppression methods are working. But that's exactly what we're going to have to do.
 
2020-03-18 8:46:10 PM  

clovercat: From a facebook share:

Joel Strehl
21 hrsI am a surgeon and critical care physician. I rarely post-and almost never post about medical related issues. This is different. I would STRONGLY recommend everyone take 5 minutes and read this. Don't panic, but please be smart and follow the guidelines.
We can now read the report on COVID-19 that so terrified every public health manager and head of state from Boris Johnson to Donald Trump to the dictator of El Salvador that they ordered people to stay in their houses. I read it yesterday afternoon and haven't been the same since. I urge everyone to read it, but maybe have a drink first, or have your family around you. It is absolutely terrifying. The New York TImes confirms that the CDC and global leaders are treating it as factual.
Here's a brief rundown of what I'm seeing in here. Please correct me in comments if I'm wrong.
The COVID-19 response team at Imperial College in London obtained what appears to be the first accurate dataset of infection and death rates from China, Korea, and Italy. They plugged those numbers into widely available epidemic modeling software and ran a simulation: what would happen if the United States did absolutely nothing -- if we treated COVID-19 like the flu, went about business as usual, and let the virus take its course?
Here's what would happen: 80% of Americans would get the disease. 0.9% of them would die. Between 4 and 8 percent of all Americans over the age of 70 would die. 2.2 million Americans would die from the virus itself.
It gets worse. Most people who are in danger of dying from COVID-19 need to be put on ventilators. 50% of those put on ventilators still die, but the other 50% live. But in an unmitigated epidemic, the need for ventilators would be 30 times the number of ventilators in the United States. Virtually no one who needed a ventilator would get one. 100% of patients who need ventilators would die if they didn't get one. So the actual death toll from the virus would be closer to 4 million Americans -- in a span of 3 months. 8-15% of all Americans over 70 would die.
How many people is 4 million Americans? It's more Americans than have died all at once from anything, ever. It's the population of Los Angeles. It's four times the number of Americans who died in the Civil War...on both sides combined. It's two-thirds as many people as died in the Holocaust.
Americans make up 4.4% of the world's population. So if we simply extrapolate these numbers to the rest of the world -- now we're getting into really fuzzy estimates, so the margin of error is pretty great here -- this gives us 90 million deaths globally from COVID-19. That's 15 Holocausts. That's 1.5 times as many people as died in World War II, over 12 years. This would take 3-6 months.
Now, it's unrealistic to assume that countries wouldn't do ANYTHING to fight the virus once people started dying. So the Imperial College team ran the numbers again, this time assuming a "mitigation" strategy. A mitigation strategy is pretty much what common sense would tell us to do: America places all symptomatic cases of the disease in isolation. It quarantines their families for 14 days. It orders all Americans over 70 to practice social distancing. This is what you've seen a lot of people talking about when they say we should "flatten the curve": try to slow the spread of the disease to the people most likely to die from it, to avoid overwhelming hospitals.
And it does flatten the curve -- but not nearly enough. The death rate from the disease is cut in half, but it still kills 1.1 million Americans all by itself. The peak need for ventilators falls by two-thirds, but it still exceeds the number of ventilators in the US by eight times, meaning most people who need ventilators still don't get them. That leaves the actual death toll in the US at right around 2 million deaths. The population of Houston. Two civil wars. One-third of the Holocaust. Globally, 45 million people die: 7.5 Holocausts, 3/4 of World War II. That's what happens if we use common sense: the worst death toll from a single cause since the Middle Ages.
Finally, the Imperial College team ran the numbers a third time, this time assuming a "suppression" strategy. In addition to isolating symptomatic cases and quarantining their family members, they also simulated social distancing for the entire population. All public gatherings and most workplaces shut down. Schools and universities close. (Note that these simulations assumed a realistic rate of adherence to these requirements, around 70-75% adherence, not that everyone follows them perfectly.) This is basically what we are seeing happen in the United States today.
This time it works! The death rate in the US peaks three weeks from now at a few thousand deaths, then goes down. We hit, but don't exceed (at least not by very much), the number of available ventilators. The nightmarish death tolls from the rest of the study disappear; COVID-19 goes down in the books as a bad flu instead of the Black Death.
But here's the catch: if we EVER relax these requirements before a vaccine is administered to the entire population, COVID-19 comes right back and kills millions of Americans in a few months, the same as before. The simulation does indicate that, after the first suppression period (lasting from now until July), we could probably lift restrictions for a month, followed by two more months of suppression, in a repeating pattern without triggering an outbreak or overwhelming the ventilator supply. If we staggered these suppression breaks based on local conditions, we might be able to do a bit better. But we simply cannot ever allow the virus to spread throughout the entire population in the way other viruses do, because it is just too deadly. If lots of people we know end up getting COVID-19, it means millions of Americans are dying. It simply can't be allowed to happen.
How quickly will a vaccine be here? Already, medical ethics have been pushed to the limit to deliver one. COVID-19 was first discovered a few months ago. Last week, three separate research teams announced they had developed vaccines. Yesterday, one of them (with FDA approval) injected its vaccine into a live person, without waiting for animal testing. Now, though, they have to monitor the test subject for fourteen months to make sure the vaccine is safe. This is the part of the testing that can't be rushed: the plan is to inoculate the entire human population, so if the vaccine itself turned out to be lethal for some reason, it could potentially kill all humans, which is a lot worse than 90 million deaths. Assuming the vaccine is safe and effective, it will still take several months to produce enough to inoculate the global population. For this reason, the Imperial College team estimated it will be about 18 months until the vaccine is available.
During those 18 months, things are going to be very difficult and very scary. Our economy and our society will be disrupted in profound ways. Worst of all, if the suppression policies actually work, it will feel like we are doing all this for nothing, because the infection and death rates will be very low. It's easy to get people to come together in common sacrifice in the middle of a war. It's very hard to get them to do so in a pandemic that looks invisible precisely because suppression methods are working. But that's exactly what we're going to have to do.


Basically we are farked either way. We won't have a society left in 18 months. This plan works from a virus stand point but no one has been able to explain how we will support life for 7 billion plus people with only 25-30 of the population working. It sad but true I matter which way you look at it the math doesn't work.
 
2020-03-18 8:53:34 PM  
Subby, I'll chuckle at your fast cosby headline. But I won't like it.
 
2020-03-18 8:53:52 PM  
Which is why they must have started a few weeks early, right?   Because there's a pandemic going on?  Right?
 
2020-03-18 9:34:07 PM  

clovercat: From a facebook share:

Joel Strehl
21 hrsI am a surgeon and critical care physician. I rarely post-and almost never post about medical related issues. This is different. I would STRONGLY recommend everyone take 5 minutes and read this. Don't panic, but please be smart and follow the guidelines.
We can now read the report on COVID-19 that so terrified every public health manager and head of state from Boris Johnson to Donald Trump to the dictator of El Salvador that they ordered people to stay in their houses. I read it yesterday afternoon and haven't been the same since. I urge everyone to read it, but maybe have a drink first, or have your family around you. It is absolutely terrifying. The New York TImes confirms that the CDC and global leaders are treating it as factual.
Here's a brief rundown of what I'm seeing in here. Please correct me in comments if I'm wrong.
The COVID-19 response team at Imperial College in London obtained what appears to be the first accurate dataset of infection and death rates from China, Korea, and Italy. They plugged those numbers into widely available epidemic modeling software and ran a simulation: what would happen if the United States did absolutely nothing -- if we treated COVID-19 like the flu, went about business as usual, and let the virus take its course?
Here's what would happen: 80% of Americans would get the disease. 0.9% of them would die. Between 4 and 8 percent of all Americans over the age of 70 would die. 2.2 million Americans would die from the virus itself.
It gets worse. Most people who are in danger of dying from COVID-19 need to be put on ventilators. 50% of those put on ventilators still die, but the other 50% live. But in an unmitigated epidemic, the need for ventilators would be 30 times the number of ventilators in the United States. Virtually no one who needed a ventilator would get one. 100% of patients who need ventilators would die if they didn't get one. So the actual death toll from the virus would be c ...


Here's the report on twitter, unrolled:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/12​3​9975682643357696.html
 
2020-03-18 10:51:08 PM  

not enough beer: Well he did that like Friday. It takes awhile to get one ready and without orders the Navy won't do shiat.


fark the direct orders.

Start preparing the ships as part of your rigorous training procedures. And then when they are needed, by a marvelous coincidence they are ready to go.
 
2020-03-18 11:27:00 PM  

Gubbo: not enough beer: Well he did that like Friday. It takes awhile to get one ready and without orders the Navy won't do shiat.

fark the direct orders.

Start preparing the ships as part of your rigorous training procedures. And then when they are needed, by a marvelous coincidence they are ready to go.


Yeah you don't realize how the military works do you? Especially in a we are gonna launch a ship kind way.
 
2020-03-18 11:36:18 PM  

not enough beer: Gubbo: not enough beer: Well he did that like Friday. It takes awhile to get one ready and without orders the Navy won't do shiat.

fark the direct orders.

Start preparing the ships as part of your rigorous training procedures. And then when they are needed, by a marvelous coincidence they are ready to go.

Yeah you don't realize how the military works do you? Especially in a we are gonna launch a ship kind way.


I guess the days of the military having contingency plans and preparedness are in the past
 
2020-03-18 11:48:26 PM  

Gubbo: not enough beer: Gubbo: not enough beer: Well he did that like Friday. It takes awhile to get one ready and without orders the Navy won't do shiat.

fark the direct orders.

Start preparing the ships as part of your rigorous training procedures. And then when they are needed, by a marvelous coincidence they are ready to go.

Yeah you don't realize how the military works do you? Especially in a we are gonna launch a ship kind way.

I guess the days of the military having contingency plans and preparedness are in the past


They do but you do realize they have to be activated correct. An admiral can't just tell guys to start doing stuff.
 
2020-03-19 2:32:05 AM  
I'm currently taking care (and living with) of my 90-year-old mother.  If I catch this thing I have no idea where I'm supposed to go in order to avoid exposing her.
 
2020-03-19 3:14:32 AM  
Esper?  I don't think you need ESP to realize it takes time to mobilize a navy operation.
 
2020-03-19 3:14:55 AM  
POOP CRUISE!

Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-03-19 3:15:48 AM  

not enough beer: Well he did that like Friday. It takes awhile to get one ready and without orders the Navy won't do shiat.


Boats can not handle COVID patients.
 
2020-03-19 3:18:21 AM  

fusillade762: I'm currently taking care (and living with) of my 90-year-old mother.  If I catch this thing I have no idea where I'm supposed to go in order to avoid exposing her.


https://undertheweatherpods.com/colle​c​tions/wearable-pods/products/walkingpo​d
 
2020-03-19 3:18:50 AM  

eurotrader: Really? The president declares a state of health emergency and the Navy doesn't even start prepping Hospital ships to deploy. I wonder who changed that protocol?


Boeing?
 
2020-03-19 3:19:07 AM  
Virus: that's cool, I'll still be here
 
2020-03-19 3:20:04 AM  

SyphalisPhlaschly: not enough beer: Well he did that like Friday. It takes awhile to get one ready and without orders the Navy won't do shiat.

Boats can not handle COVID patients.


They can if you're throwing them overboard.
 
2020-03-19 3:20:11 AM  

fusillade762: I'm currently taking care (and living with) of my 90-year-old mother.  If I catch this thing I have no idea where I'm supposed to go in order to avoid exposing her.


Did a spell of that years ago, (late) 84 yr old grandmother. It sucks, in ways that can't be enumerated. Emotionally. Socially... Good on you though. Blood and water. Somebody will have to wipe our ass one day as well.

Chin up.
 
2020-03-19 3:20:24 AM  

SyphalisPhlaschly: not enough beer: Well he did that like Friday. It takes awhile to get one ready and without orders the Navy won't do shiat.

Boats can not handle COVID patients.


They need to handle everything else.
 
2020-03-19 3:23:45 AM  

vrax: SyphalisPhlaschly: not enough beer: Well he did that like Friday. It takes awhile to get one ready and without orders the Navy won't do shiat.

Boats can not handle COVID patients.

They need to handle everything else.


The boats literally cannot handle COVID patients, there aren't any doctors on board etc. Its a shiat show, DJT* dickwaving excersize that will cost $$$ and lives to no avail.

HeSh shTiLl Ur PresDenT
 
2020-03-19 3:27:08 AM  

SyphalisPhlaschly: vrax: SyphalisPhlaschly: not enough beer: Well he did that like Friday. It takes awhile to get one ready and without orders the Navy won't do shiat.

Boats can not handle COVID patients.

They need to handle everything else.

The boats literally cannot handle COVID patients, there aren't any doctors on board etc. Its a shiat show, DJT* dickwaving excersize that will cost $$$ and lives to no avail.

HeSh shTiLl Ur PresDenT


I'm not talking about COVID-19 patients, I'm talking about literally every other medical issue that will be crowded out by the virus patients.  But you are saying that these aren't even medical ships?  Is that right?
 
2020-03-19 3:29:31 AM  

SyphalisPhlaschly: fusillade762: I'm currently taking care (and living with) of my 90-year-old mother.  If I catch this thing I have no idea where I'm supposed to go in order to avoid exposing her.

Did a spell of that years ago, (late) 84 yr old grandmother. It sucks, in ways that can't be enumerated. Emotionally. Socially... Good on you though. Blood and water. Somebody will have to wipe our ass one day as well.

Chin up.


I recently moved in with a friend, to be her caregiver. She's 64, but has advanced COPD, had a stroke, and is recovering from bladder cancer. Her last live-in caregiver still lives here as well, but he's a right winger conspiracy theorist whacko. He believes the Dems created covid-19 to get trump. I'm terrified he'll kill her with his bullshiat.

Before the pandemic, I was getting her out and about. Her friends have been telling me how good I've been for her. Now, she's a lump on the couch again.
 
2020-03-19 3:31:35 AM  

SyphalisPhlaschly: fusillade762: I'm currently taking care (and living with) of my 90-year-old mother.  If I catch this thing I have no idea where I'm supposed to go in order to avoid exposing her.

Did a spell of that years ago, (late) 84 yr old grandmother. It sucks, in ways that can't be enumerated. Emotionally. Socially... Good on you though. Blood and water. Somebody will have to wipe our ass one day as well.


I doubt that somebody will be family since I don't have any kids or siblings.
 
2020-03-19 3:32:51 AM  

vrax: SyphalisPhlaschly: vrax: SyphalisPhlaschly: not enough beer: Well he did that like Friday. It takes awhile to get one ready and without orders the Navy won't do shiat.

Boats can not handle COVID patients.

They need to handle everything else.

The boats literally cannot handle COVID patients, there aren't any doctors on board etc. Its a shiat show, DJT* dickwaving excersize that will cost $$$ and lives to no avail.

HeSh shTiLl Ur PresDenT

I'm not talking about COVID-19 patients, I'm talking about literally every other medical issue that will be crowded out by the virus patients.  But you are saying that these aren't even medical ships?  Is that right?


No. That's not what I'm saying. They are ill equipped, they're in dry dock getting retro fittied, they are not even farking intended to handle COVID patients, they are currently "deployed" to handle olds with broken farking legs. More bullshiat from the "commander in chief."

White trash grandson of a pimp from farking Queens who'd lose his used car salesman job in a week if he didn't have whore money in his mouth.

Meanwhile: the missions those ships should be on are side tracked because dear farking leader is over his farking head.
 
2020-03-19 3:33:36 AM  

SyphalisPhlaschly: not enough beer: Well he did that like Friday. It takes awhile to get one ready and without orders the Navy won't do shiat.

Boats can not handle COVID patients.


Perhaps it could, idk, take all the people that can't go to normal hospitals cause those are full to bursting with COVID sufferers?
 
2020-03-19 3:36:33 AM  

fusillade762: SyphalisPhlaschly: fusillade762: I'm currently taking care (and living with) of my 90-year-old mother.  If I catch this thing I have no idea where I'm supposed to go in order to avoid exposing her.

Did a spell of that years ago, (late) 84 yr old grandmother. It sucks, in ways that can't be enumerated. Emotionally. Socially... Good on you though. Blood and water. Somebody will have to wipe our ass one day as well.

I doubt that somebody will be family since I don't have any kids or siblings.


In the same, uh... boat. It's thankless work. But I say this sincerely, as a rando on the net, you're doing the right thing. Nobody's going to give it you. You ain't ever going to get it. But here's a pat on the shoulder,
 
2020-03-19 3:38:34 AM  

farkin_noob: SyphalisPhlaschly: fusillade762: I'm currently taking care (and living with) of my 90-year-old mother.  If I catch this thing I have no idea where I'm supposed to go in order to avoid exposing her.

Did a spell of that years ago, (late) 84 yr old grandmother. It sucks, in ways that can't be enumerated. Emotionally. Socially... Good on you though. Blood and water. Somebody will have to wipe our ass one day as well.

Chin up.

I recently moved in with a friend, to be her caregiver. She's 64, but has advanced COPD, had a stroke, and is recovering from bladder cancer. Her last live-in caregiver still lives here as well, but he's a right winger conspiracy theorist whacko. He believes the Dems created covid-19 to get trump. I'm terrified he'll kill her with his bullshiat.

Before the pandemic, I was getting her out and about. Her friends have been telling me how good I've been for her. Now, she's a lump on the couch again.


It's thankless. But, you are doing good work. For what ever rando on the nets opinion is worth.
 
2020-03-19 3:39:32 AM  

Smoking GNU: SyphalisPhlaschly: not enough beer: Well he did that like Friday. It takes awhile to get one ready and without orders the Navy won't do shiat.

Boats can not handle COVID patients.

Perhaps it could, idk, take all the people that can't go to normal hospitals cause those are full to bursting with COVID sufferers?


Theyve got roughly a hundred beds. Per ship.
 
2020-03-19 3:45:36 AM  

not enough beer: clovercat: From a facebook share:

Joel Strehl
21 hrsI am a surgeon and critical care physician. I rarely post-and almost never post about medical related issues. This is different. I would STRONGLY recommend everyone take 5 minutes and read this. Don't panic, but please be smart and follow the guidelines.
We can now read the report on COVID-19 that so terrified every public health manager and head of state from Boris Johnson to Donald Trump to the dictator of El Salvador that they ordered people to stay in their houses. I read it yesterday afternoon and haven't been the same since. I urge everyone to read it, but maybe have a drink first, or have your family around you. It is absolutely terrifying. The New York TImes confirms that the CDC and global leaders are treating it as factual.
Here's a brief rundown of what I'm seeing in here. Please correct me in comments if I'm wrong.
The COVID-19 response team at Imperial College in London obtained what appears to be the first accurate dataset of infection and death rates from China, Korea, and Italy. They plugged those numbers into widely available epidemic modeling software and ran a simulation: what would happen if the United States did absolutely nothing -- if we treated COVID-19 like the flu, went about business as usual, and let the virus take its course?
Here's what would happen: 80% of Americans would get the disease. 0.9% of them would die. Between 4 and 8 percent of all Americans over the age of 70 would die. 2.2 million Americans would die from the virus itself.
It gets worse. Most people who are in danger of dying from COVID-19 need to be put on ventilators. 50% of those put on ventilators still die, but the other 50% live. But in an unmitigated epidemic, the need for ventilators would be 30 times the number of ventilators in the United States. Virtually no one who needed a ventilator would get one. 100% of patients who need ventilators would die if they didn't get one. So the actual death toll from the virus would be closer to 4 million Americans -- in a span of 3 months. 8-15% of all Americans over 70 would die.
How many people is 4 million Americans? It's more Americans than have died all at once from anything, ever. It's the population of Los Angeles. It's four times the number of Americans who died in the Civil War...on both sides combined. It's two-thirds as many people as died in the Holocaust.
Americans make up 4.4% of the world's population. So if we simply extrapolate these numbers to the rest of the world -- now we're getting into really fuzzy estimates, so the margin of error is pretty great here -- this gives us 90 million deaths globally from COVID-19. That's 15 Holocausts. That's 1.5 times as many people as died in World War II, over 12 years. This would take 3-6 months.
Now, it's unrealistic to assume that countries wouldn't do ANYTHING to fight the virus once people started dying. So the Imperial College team ran the numbers again, this time assuming a "mitigation" strategy. A mitigation strategy is pretty much what common sense would tell us to do: America places all symptomatic cases of the disease in isolation. It quarantines their families for 14 days. It orders all Americans over 70 to practice social distancing. This is what you've seen a lot of people talking about when they say we should "flatten the curve": try to slow the spread of the disease to the people most likely to die from it, to avoid overwhelming hospitals.
And it does flatten the curve -- but not nearly enough. The death rate from the disease is cut in half, but it still kills 1.1 million Americans all by itself. The peak need for ventilators falls by two-thirds, but it still exceeds the number of ventilators in the US by eight times, meaning most people who need ventilators still don't get them. That leaves the actual death toll in the US at right around 2 million deaths. The population of Houston. Two civil wars. One-third of the Holocaust. Globally, 45 million people die: 7.5 Holocausts, 3/4 of World War II. That's what happens if we use common sense: the worst death toll from a single cause since the Middle Ages.
Finally, the Imperial College team ran the numbers a third time, this time assuming a "suppression" strategy. In addition to isolating symptomatic cases and quarantining their family members, they also simulated social distancing for the entire population. All public gatherings and most workplaces shut down. Schools and universities close. (Note that these simulations assumed a realistic rate of adherence to these requirements, around 70-75% adherence, not that everyone follows them perfectly.) This is basically what we are seeing happen in the United States today.
This time it works! The death rate in the US peaks three weeks from now at a few thousand deaths, then goes down. We hit, but don't exceed (at least not by very much), the number of available ventilators. The nightmarish death tolls from the rest of the study disappear; COVID-19 goes down in the books as a bad flu instead of the Black Death.
But here's the catch: if we EVER relax these requirements before a vaccine is administered to the entire population, COVID-19 comes right back and kills millions of Americans in a few months, the same as before. The simulation does indicate that, after the first suppression period (lasting from now until July), we could probably lift restrictions for a month, followed by two more months of suppression, in a repeating pattern without triggering an outbreak or overwhelming the ventilator supply. If we staggered these suppression breaks based on local conditions, we might be able to do a bit better. But we simply cannot ever allow the virus to spread throughout the entire population in the way other viruses do, because it is just too deadly. If lots of people we know end up getting COVID-19, it means millions of Americans are dying. It simply can't be allowed to happen.
How quickly will a vaccine be here? Already, medical ethics have been pushed to the limit to deliver one. COVID-19 was first discovered a few months ago. Last week, three separate research teams announced they had developed vaccines. Yesterday, one of them (with FDA approval) injected its vaccine into a live person, without waiting for animal testing. Now, though, they have to monitor the test subject for fourteen months to make sure the vaccine is safe. This is the part of the testing that can't be rushed: the plan is to inoculate the entire human population, so if the vaccine itself turned out to be lethal for some reason, it could potentially kill all humans, which is a lot worse than 90 million deaths. Assuming the vaccine is safe and effective, it will still take several months to produce enough to inoculate the global population. For this reason, the Imperial College team estimated it will be about 18 months until the vaccine is available.
During those 18 months, things are going to be very difficult and very scary. Our economy and our society will be disrupted in profound ways. Worst of all, if the suppression policies actually work, it will feel like we are doing all this for nothing, because the infection and death rates will be very low. It's easy to get people to come together in common sacrifice in the middle of a war. It's very hard to get them to do so in a pandemic that looks invisible precisely because suppression methods are working. But that's exactly what we're going to have to do.

Basically we are farked either way. We won't have a society left in 18 months. This plan works from a virus stand point but no one has been able to explain how we will support life for 7 billion plus people with only 25-30 of the population working. It sad but true I matter which way you look at it the math doesn't work.


The math is simple, capitalism is a death sentence.

The only five words that matter are the first 5 words that are right. All the ammo I need.

Welcome to socialism, buttercup.
 
2020-03-19 3:46:18 AM  

SyphalisPhlaschly: vrax: SyphalisPhlaschly: vrax: SyphalisPhlaschly: not enough beer: Well he did that like Friday. It takes awhile to get one ready and without orders the Navy won't do shiat.

Boats can not handle COVID patients.

They need to handle everything else.

The boats literally cannot handle COVID patients, there aren't any doctors on board etc. Its a shiat show, DJT* dickwaving excersize that will cost $$$ and lives to no avail.

HeSh shTiLl Ur PresDenT

I'm not talking about COVID-19 patients, I'm talking about literally every other medical issue that will be crowded out by the virus patients.  But you are saying that these aren't even medical ships?  Is that right?

No. That's not what I'm saying. They are ill equipped, they're in dry dock getting retro fittied, they are not even farking intended to handle COVID patients, they are currently "deployed" to handle olds with broken farking legs. More bullshiat from the "commander in chief."

White trash grandson of a pimp from farking Queens who'd lose his used car salesman job in a week if he didn't have whore money in his mouth.

Meanwhile: the missions those ships should be on are side tracked because dear farking leader is over his farking head.


OK, so, again, let's forget the COVID patients.  If these ships can be spooled up and put in action it would be extremely helpful if they can handle some of the critical non-COVID cases.  Any additional medical bandwidth is good.  I'm not saying that the Trump administration will even handle this properly, because they sure haven't done so with anything else, but if those ships can be put in play, I think they should be.
 
2020-03-19 3:50:03 AM  
To the care givers above, have they accused you of snaking there pills yet? (No need to answer). Grand like biscuits and gravy, I'd make it for her a couple times a week (add a bit of stale coffee to the gravy, secret, told). One morning she gave a side eye, real accusatory like. Like she had cottoned onto something. Asked. I had everything to do to not:

Fark user imageView Full Size


It's hard.
 
2020-03-19 3:52:36 AM  

vrax: SyphalisPhlaschly: vrax: SyphalisPhlaschly: vrax: SyphalisPhlaschly: not enough beer: Well he did that like Friday. It takes awhile to get one ready and without orders the Navy won't do shiat.

Boats can not handle COVID patients.

They need to handle everything else.

The boats literally cannot handle COVID patients, there aren't any doctors on board etc. Its a shiat show, DJT* dickwaving excersize that will cost $$$ and lives to no avail.

HeSh shTiLl Ur PresDenT

I'm not talking about COVID-19 patients, I'm talking about literally every other medical issue that will be crowded out by the virus patients.  But you are saying that these aren't even medical ships?  Is that right?

No. That's not what I'm saying. They are ill equipped, they're in dry dock getting retro fittied, they are not even farking intended to handle COVID patients, they are currently "deployed" to handle olds with broken farking legs. More bullshiat from the "commander in chief."

White trash grandson of a pimp from farking Queens who'd lose his used car salesman job in a week if he didn't have whore money in his mouth.

Meanwhile: the missions those ships should be on are side tracked because dear farking leader is over his farking head.

OK, so, again, let's forget the COVID patients.  If these ships can be spooled up and put in action it would be extremely helpful if they can handle some of the critical non-COVID cases.  Any additional medical bandwidth is good.  I'm not saying that the Trump administration will even handle this properly, because they sure haven't done so with anything else, but if those ships can be put in play, I think they should be.


You're right. I'm not arguing with you. It's just... it. It. In the bigger picture, everything helps. But it's it.

/can't even bring myself to call it a man.
 
2020-03-19 3:55:20 AM  

SyphalisPhlaschly: vrax: SyphalisPhlaschly: vrax: SyphalisPhlaschly: vrax: SyphalisPhlaschly: not enough beer: Well he did that like Friday. It takes awhile to get one ready and without orders the Navy won't do shiat.

Boats can not handle COVID patients.

They need to handle everything else.

The boats literally cannot handle COVID patients, there aren't any doctors on board etc. Its a shiat show, DJT* dickwaving excersize that will cost $$$ and lives to no avail.

HeSh shTiLl Ur PresDenT

I'm not talking about COVID-19 patients, I'm talking about literally every other medical issue that will be crowded out by the virus patients.  But you are saying that these aren't even medical ships?  Is that right?

No. That's not what I'm saying. They are ill equipped, they're in dry dock getting retro fittied, they are not even farking intended to handle COVID patients, they are currently "deployed" to handle olds with broken farking legs. More bullshiat from the "commander in chief."

White trash grandson of a pimp from farking Queens who'd lose his used car salesman job in a week if he didn't have whore money in his mouth.

Meanwhile: the missions those ships should be on are side tracked because dear farking leader is over his farking head.

OK, so, again, let's forget the COVID patients.  If these ships can be spooled up and put in action it would be extremely helpful if they can handle some of the critical non-COVID cases.  Any additional medical bandwidth is good.  I'm not saying that the Trump administration will even handle this properly, because they sure haven't done so with anything else, but if those ships can be put in play, I think they should be.

You're right. I'm not arguing with you. It's just... it. It. In the bigger picture, everything helps. But it's it.

/can't even bring myself to call it a man.


What, the fetid orange ooze in the White House?
 
2020-03-19 3:56:21 AM  
*their
There they're their. Wolf. There castle,
 
2020-03-19 3:59:08 AM  

fusillade762: I'm currently taking care (and living with) of my 90-year-old mother.  If I catch this thing I have no idea where I'm supposed to go in order to avoid exposing her.


Yep.  I've been there.  It's a tough spot.  I hope you're taking care of yourself too.

The sick person needs to wear the mask.  If you get sick, glove up before you touch her or her food.  Find respite care if you can.

And then if she get sick, forgive yourself.  It's an impossible thing you're asking of yourself.
 
2020-03-19 3:59:29 AM  

fusillade762: I'm currently taking care (and living with) of my 90-year-old mother.  If I catch this thing I have no idea where I'm supposed to go in order to avoid exposing her.


It took a week, but i got my 74 and 71 year old parents to go bAck into rural, bumbefark, middle of  nowhere WI to self quarantine

Many years ago I adamantly told my father that 'I get it, early boomer, late greatest generation, Grandma instilled in you to sacrifice and save.  A pile that I DO NOT WANT TO SEE. ITS YOURS THAT YOU WORKED FOR DAMMIT' . my inheritance is hopefully now only a 'livable year round vacation home' , a condo that I already sleep 2 nights per week, and '72 Volkswagen parts converted into a kit car 1952 MG... albeit shared with  my brother who really doesn't want the car, or the home.

And dammit. Every time they come back down here, I talk with my father for hours until he can't keep his eyes open. And/Or, fix his laptop since we are both long past the days of  'c64 hardware repairs'. Or both at the same time while he pours me drinkies

My Boomer former 'Republican' father  who conceived me the day Ford pardoned Nixon is a god damn anchor in this world of random storms. He doesn't judge me. Very few times as an adult he has straight up told me to take a different path. Otherwise he was juat there when I succeed and when I failed If I need to just vent, he is there for me. Just shuts up and listens. Which apparently is all I actually need most of the time just to get something out of me.

AND DAMMIT. Dad reads the headlines, giggles at photoshop contests, but refuses to read threads, or become more than a Lurker. This is one of the times my ode to 'The Big Cheese' id like him to see

Fark user imageView Full Size


I know it will happen some day that he won't be here, but I'm not ready for it. Not at all. Not even close.

And he left me home made chicken dumpling soup and 2 loaves of fresh baked hand pounded loves of bread.

/sigh. Someone pass me a Kleenex. Today. Simetime in the future? Imma gonna need a box or 5. NOT YET. Live today. 3am. fark. Tomorrow morning im just going to call and say 'I love you, Dad'
 
2020-03-19 4:07:01 AM  
The ships have 1000 beds - each.  Their mission it to provide medical and surgical support to military operations - mostly for Marines so no, it's not set up for COVID-19.   

They're also not set up for immediate deployment for two reasons - the material condition of the vessel and manning.

Ships need maintenance and often that maintenance requires the ship to be in drydock or laid up in other ways, so it can take weeks to get it underway.  Also, it has to be staffed with medical people.  Navy can't afford to keep a full medical staff on board just waiting for something to happen.  They have to pull people from other active medical commands to stand up the medical crew on.

I don't know about the status of Comfort, but Mercy is at a higher state of readiness because they were in preparations for the biannual Pacifc Partnership deployment so they can get underway sooner.
 
2020-03-19 4:23:18 AM  
Additionally, to follow up on my screen cap: for many years I  didn't think I was smart enough, nor good enough to pass the FE and PE exams. I passed both on the first on the first try. Dad did push me, gently, that way when i told him many years ago what It all entailed. (He's A retired Rx... we have very little carreer wise in common) While i get all random Nerdlike at times her with my random mentions of what I do, i dont... normally boast about it. But when I go to seminars and meet others like in or close to what I do, I am considered an expert in my niche field.

And i have brother who doest remember his year of high school. Wake and bake and 'hot' lunch. Dad knew that but wouldn't come out and say it. Didn't get all pissy about it. Let it run its course. Got my bro to take a woodworking class at a tech school. Now? My little bro has 20 odd people under his direction making custom woodwork.

Depression is a right awful biatch that runs deep in his side of my family. We get through it. Successfully. But, that wouldn't ever have happened if my father was any different than the person he is.

Dammit. Late. Can't be so morbid. Glad my parents are alive and trying to isolate.

Yeah yeah. Haven't said anything about mom. That would double, triple, quadruple, this post for the praise i cannot express right now.

Because I'm going to wipe my face, take some melatonin, sleep, and wake up tomorrow so i can continue trying to do what I can, what I think is right, and maybe throw some honor in my parent's direction while they are still here.
 
2020-03-19 4:28:50 AM  

not enough beer: Well he did that like Friday. It takes awhile to get one ready and without orders the Navy won't do shiat.


This kind of paralysis across our response will get us all killed. BE BOLD AND BREAK RULES! This is the closest thing to a real-time (sorry climate change) Armageddon that we will see in our lifetimes. Pull out all the goddamn farking stops and TAKE DECISIVE ACTION NOW!
 
2020-03-19 4:36:20 AM  

SyphalisPhlaschly: Smoking GNU: SyphalisPhlaschly: not enough beer: Well he did that like Friday. It takes awhile to get one ready and without orders the Navy won't do shiat.

Boats can not handle COVID patients.

Perhaps it could, idk, take all the people that can't go to normal hospitals cause those are full to bursting with COVID sufferers?

Theyve got roughly a hundred beds. Per ship.


A thousand per ship. We need EVERYTHING we can muster. Why limit ourselves unnecessarily?
 
2020-03-19 4:44:30 AM  

SyphalisPhlaschly: farkin_noob: SyphalisPhlaschly: fusillade762: I'm currently taking care (and living with) of my 90-year-old mother.  If I catch this thing I have no idea where I'm supposed to go in order to avoid exposing her.

Did a spell of that years ago, (late) 84 yr old grandmother. It sucks, in ways that can't be enumerated. Emotionally. Socially... Good on you though. Blood and water. Somebody will have to wipe our ass one day as well.

Chin up.

I recently moved in with a friend, to be her caregiver. She's 64, but has advanced COPD, had a stroke, and is recovering from bladder cancer. Her last live-in caregiver still lives here as well, but he's a right winger conspiracy theorist whacko. He believes the Dems created covid-19 to get trump. I'm terrified he'll kill her with his bullshiat.

Before the pandemic, I was getting her out and about. Her friends have been telling me how good I've been for her. Now, she's a lump on the couch again.

It's thankless. But, you are doing good work. For what ever rando on the nets opinion is worth.


She thanks me all the time, being a canuck and all. But seriously, she's an awesome lady. I really haven't known her long, but her last caregiver did the bare minimum. He calls her a 64 year old child. And would cuss and roll his eyes if she asked him for anything. So she started calling me, at all hours, when she was having trouble. I'd  have to take her to the ER a couple of times a week. After her caregiver showed up shiatfaced twice, they we going to force her into assisted living. So, suddenly, I'm a caregiver. It's all good, just exhausting.

And I'm not looking for thanks, is not needed. I was more venting about him, being a whack job and whatnot. Worrying about his stupidity killing a sweet, funny lady.
 
2020-03-19 4:58:39 AM  

farkin_noob: SyphalisPhlaschly: farkin_noob: SyphalisPhlaschly: fusillade762: I'm currently taking care (and living with) of my 90-year-old mother.  If I catch this thing I have no idea where I'm supposed to go in order to avoid exposing her.

Did a spell of that years ago, (late) 84 yr old grandmother. It sucks, in ways that can't be enumerated. Emotionally. Socially... Good on you though. Blood and water. Somebody will have to wipe our ass one day as well.

Chin up.

I recently moved in with a friend, to be her caregiver. She's 64, but has advanced COPD, had a stroke, and is recovering from bladder cancer. Her last live-in caregiver still lives here as well, but he's a right winger conspiracy theorist whacko. He believes the Dems created covid-19 to get trump. I'm terrified he'll kill her with his bullshiat.

Before the pandemic, I was getting her out and about. Her friends have been telling me how good I've been for her. Now, she's a lump on the couch again.

It's thankless. But, you are doing good work. For what ever rando on the nets opinion is worth.

She thanks me all the time, being a canuck and all. But seriously, she's an awesome lady. I really haven't known her long, but her last caregiver did the bare minimum. He calls her a 64 year old child. And would cuss and roll his eyes if she asked him for anything. So she started calling me, at all hours, when she was having trouble. I'd  have to take her to the ER a couple of times a week. After her caregiver showed up shiatfaced twice, they we going to force her into assisted living. So, suddenly, I'm a caregiver. It's all good, just exhausting.

And I'm not looking for thanks, is not needed. I was more venting about him, being a whack job and whatnot. Worrying about his stupidity killing a sweet, funny lady.


That right there is basically the core philosophy I try to live my life with: if someone needs help, and I can provide it, it's my responsibility to do so. I wish everyone lived by this like you are. Can you imagine how much better things would be if we all decided to just take care of each other?

/ It seems so simple, yet so far impossible...
 
2020-03-19 5:06:56 AM  

eurotrader: Really? The president declares a state of health emergency and the Navy doesn't even start prepping Hospital ships to deploy. I wonder who changed that protocol?


Trump hadn't learned the actual procedure for issuing orders to the military chain of command as of January when he tried to reallocate funding via tweet again, and it's been a running theme of his presidency that his illegal orders get struck down in court before anything happens because they never made it to the military despite public announcements.

It doesn't matter what the protocol is, he hasn't activated it and doesn't know how to. Honestly the evidence still leans toward him not being functionally literate in general anymore, if he ever was.
 
2020-03-19 5:17:23 AM  

not enough beer: clovercat: From a facebook share:

Joel Strehl
21 hrsI am a surgeon and critical care physician. I rarely post-and almost never post about medical related issues. This is different. I would STRONGLY recommend everyone take 5 minutes and read this. Don't panic, but please be smart and follow the guidelines.
We can now read the report on COVID-19 that so terrified every public health manager and head of state from Boris Johnson to Donald Trump to the dictator of El Salvador that they ordered people to stay in their houses. I read it yesterday afternoon and haven't been the same since. I urge everyone to read it, but maybe have a drink first, or have your family around you. It is absolutely terrifying. The New York TImes confirms that the CDC and global leaders are treating it as factual.
Here's a brief rundown of what I'm seeing in here. Please correct me in comments if I'm wrong.
The COVID-19 response team at Imperial College in London obtained what appears to be the first accurate dataset of infection and death rates from China, Korea, and Italy. They plugged those numbers into widely available epidemic modeling software and ran a simulation: what would happen if the United States did absolutely nothing -- if we treated COVID-19 like the flu, went about business as usual, and let the virus take its course?
Here's what would happen: 80% of Americans would get the disease. 0.9% of them would die. Between 4 and 8 percent of all Americans over the age of 70 would die. 2.2 million Americans would die from the virus itself.
It gets worse. Most people who are in danger of dying from COVID-19 need to be put on ventilators. 50% of those put on ventilators still die, but the other 50% live. But in an unmitigated epidemic, the need for ventilators would be 30 times the number of ventilators in the United States. Virtually no one who needed a ventilator would get one. 100% of patients who need ventilators would die if they didn't get one. So the actual death toll from the virus ...


since we will be unlikely in achieving "70%" adherence, we will probably end up with the millions dead scenario on top of the panic induced by massive unemployment.  At 20-30% unemployment, things are going to start getting real dicey real fast.  Once the images of hospitals with overflowing casualties start showing up, people may panic even more so it's really a double edged blade.  One cannot exist without the other and neither can exist for long because it would mean society under its current form will collapse.  I got a real bad feeling about all of this
 
2020-03-19 6:11:06 AM  

nullptr: not enough beer: Well he did that like Friday. It takes awhile to get one ready and without orders the Navy won't do shiat.

This kind of paralysis across our response will get us all killed. BE BOLD AND BREAK RULES! This is the closest thing to a real-time (sorry climate change) Armageddon that we will see in our lifetimes. Pull out all the goddamn farking stops and TAKE DECISIVE ACTION NOW!


You're not paying attention and/or have a poor grasp of military realities. Taking decisive, but useless, action will result in nothing beneficial- and very often ends up causing needless death. Those rules you're so eager to break involve things like making sure the ship has enough supplies, fuel, equipment, and medical staff. Sending the pretty white ships to sea without those things is worse than useless.

The ships have to be provisioned, fueled, and fully crewed before deploying. There has to be logistical infrastructure in place and prepared to support the ship when it arrives, otherwise it will merely be a not-very-decorative addition to the harbor, where the sick people ashore can stare wistfully at the hospital ship. At a minimum, this means screening and quarantine measures ashore to prevent the crew and medical staff aboard from also falling victim to Covid19. IIRC, one of the hospital ship is currently in the middle of a major maintenance availability- which means a lot of the ship's systems are completely disassembled and often removed. Getting the ship underway in that condition will end up causing more harm than anything else. Note that these maintenance availabilities are NOT minor work-ups which can be stopped and started on a whim.

There are things the US government could do to help mitigate the inevitable human cost of this pandemic which would be easier (and faster) to implement than parking a 1,000-bed hospital ship in the harbor of New York and San Francisco. Building temporary field medical facilities near major metropolitan areas to treat patients when the regular hospitals get overwhelmed would be a good start. Hiring companies to manufacture and/or assemble additional ventilators and other critical medical equipment would help both logistically and economically. With just a little bit of effort (and a fark-ton of cash), the US government could do a lot to provide tangible benefits without going off half-cocked.

Panic is always stupid.
 
2020-03-19 6:37:07 AM  

SyphalisPhlaschly: Smoking GNU: SyphalisPhlaschly: not enough beer: Well he did that like Friday. It takes awhile to get one ready and without orders the Navy won't do shiat.

Boats can not handle COVID patients.

Perhaps it could, idk, take all the people that can't go to normal hospitals cause those are full to bursting with COVID sufferers?

Theyve got roughly a hundred beds. Per ship.


And that's a hundred people per ship who might get life-saving treatment they would not otherwise get in a  covid-clogged normal hospital. Sure, it's not much, but it's something.
 
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