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(The Hill)   For Bernie, it's Must-Win Michigan   (thehill.com) divider line
    More: Obvious, Hillary Rodham Clinton, Bernie Sanders Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, Barack Obama, United States presidential election, 2008, Democratic voters, Sanders's last best shot, Democratic Party  
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854 clicks; posted to Politics » on 09 Mar 2020 at 11:20 AM (18 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2020-03-09 9:04:02 AM  
Polling now shows Bernie twenty points back in Michigan... which makes it one of his most favourable states for him at this point.

Incredible how, after years of purportedly escalating progressive energy and youth engagement, he's managed to fall apart this quickly.

(Or rather, incredible how other candidates dropping out revealed his pre-SC level of support was his ceiling, and how turnout figures have revealed there still isn't any particular reason why anyone should bother taking the progressive youth vote seriously.)
 
2020-03-09 9:12:33 AM  
He should lobby to have Amy and Pete added back to the race.
 
2020-03-09 9:22:55 AM  
Can we stop pretending now that winning states matters. I'll accept that it might matter early, but right now it's all about how many delegates you get.

If Bernie wins 51-49 but only gets 5 more delegates, is it really all that big of a win?
 
2020-03-09 9:38:24 AM  
Guys, you need to smarten up and join the present. Bernie isn't running against Clinton, no one is. This is not 2016. Let Republicans live in the past. We need to do better.
 
2020-03-09 9:39:19 AM  

Ambivalence: Guys, you need to smarten up and join the present. Bernie isn't running against Clinton, no one is. This is not 2016. Let Republicans live in the past. We need to do better.


Wrong thread. :(
 
2020-03-09 9:41:49 AM  

Gubbo: Can we stop pretending now that winning states matters. I'll accept that it might matter early, but right now it's all about how many delegates you get.

If Bernie wins 51-49 but only gets 5 more delegates, is it really all that big of a win?


The optics matter. Sanders losing another state is going to further reinforce the idea that his campaign is flailing. This won't matter to his strong supporters, but anyone who's on the fence might be swayed. I would also argue that while 5 delegates isn't a big number, 5 here, 10 there or whatever adds up.
 
2020-03-09 10:49:10 AM  
"Sanders's new coalition of young voters have not come out to the polls as much as he had hoped."

But THIS time, the youngs really care! has never, ever panned out. If that's your plan, prepare it to fail.
 
2020-03-09 11:22:40 AM  
WHY DOESNT HE JUST QUIT HES WAY DOWN THERE WITH TULSI
 
2020-03-09 11:23:36 AM  

Some Bass Playing Guy: Gubbo: Can we stop pretending now that winning states matters. I'll accept that it might matter early, but right now it's all about how many delegates you get.

If Bernie wins 51-49 but only gets 5 more delegates, is it really all that big of a win?

The optics matter. Sanders losing another state is going to further reinforce the idea that his campaign is flailing. This won't matter to his strong supporters, but anyone who's on the fence might be swayed. I would also argue that while 5 delegates isn't a big number, 5 here, 10 there or whatever adds up.


The problem is that his wins are being overwhelmed by blowout losses.

So while he can carry a narrative if he wins MI, it can all get wiped out by just MS.
 
2020-03-09 11:23:51 AM  

Ambivalence: Guys, you need to smarten up and join the present. Bernie isn't running against Clinton, no one is. This is not 2016. Let Republicans live in the past. We need to do better.


Might not be the right thread, but still relevant. This race has a lot of the 2018 midterms sprinkled in.
 
2020-03-09 11:25:02 AM  

Some Bass Playing Guy: Gubbo: Can we stop pretending now that winning states matters. I'll accept that it might matter early, but right now it's all about how many delegates you get.

If Bernie wins 51-49 but only gets 5 more delegates, is it really all that big of a win?

The optics matter. Sanders losing another state is going to further reinforce the idea that his campaign is flailing. This won't matter to his strong supporters, but anyone who's on the fence might be swayed. I would also argue that while 5 delegates isn't a big number, 5 here, 10 there or whatever adds up.


Particularly when it's a state that we've been told for 4 years couldn't be won by an entrenched Democrat, just a firebrand outsider.

I'll be voting Sanders tomorrow in Michigan.

Also, just an fyi to those who may not know: my state has mail in voting that doesn't require a reason. Nobody in this state has a valid excuse not to vote.
 
2020-03-09 11:25:05 AM  

BlueDWarrior: So while he can carry a narrative if he wins MI, it can all get wiped out by just MS.


I would argue one of these states is far more important in the general election than the other...
 
2020-03-09 11:25:11 AM  

Ambivalence: Ambivalence: Guys, you need to smarten up and join the present. Bernie isn't running against Clinton, no one is. This is not 2016. Let Republicans live in the past. We need to do better.

Wrong thread. :(


Eh, kinda fits.
 
2020-03-09 11:25:22 AM  

Gubbo: Can we stop pretending now that winning states matters. I'll accept that it might matter early, but right now it's all about how many delegates you get.

If Bernie wins 51-49 but only gets 5 more delegates, is it really all that big of a win?


The point is more that if Sanders outright loses Michigan it's basically game over.
 
2020-03-09 11:25:27 AM  
Someone get this thread cleared. We have a load of cross lumber and a train car full of nails on the way.
 
2020-03-09 11:25:55 AM  
Surely some more snake emojis will solve all of Papa Bernie's woes...
 
2020-03-09 11:26:27 AM  
Washington is looking rough for Bernie as well.
 
2020-03-09 11:27:48 AM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-03-09 11:28:16 AM  
He's not winning MI. Or my home state of Missouri for that matter, and by the time other big states come around (NY, OH, GA, NJ, PA) Biden's momentum will be so strong, it'll be embarrassing for him to run and lose by 30+.
 
2020-03-09 11:28:28 AM  

Shaggy_C: BlueDWarrior: So while he can carry a narrative if he wins MI, it can all get wiped out by just MS.

I would argue one of these states is far more important in the general election than the other...


All of their delegates count the same. So yeah, he can talk about winning MI by 2 or 3 pts in a Democratic Primary. Joe is just going to point to his bigger number on the tote board.

You know what the rules and the layout of the game-board is before the game starts, they should have planned better for this.

And people wonder why I question Bernie's overall competency when it comes to conducting politics. It's almost as if I have a reason for it.
 
2020-03-09 11:29:18 AM  

JAGChem82: He's not winning MI. Or my home state of Missouri for that matter, and by the time other big states come around (NY, OH, GA, NJ, PA) Biden's momentum will be so strong, it'll be embarrassing for him to run and lose by 30+.


4 more years of Trump it is, then
 
2020-03-09 11:29:44 AM  
Bernie's objective at this point is presumably not to win but to show the strength of the progressive movement in order to get changes made to the D's platform.

So every vote counts for him, but it seems like his % standing isn't going up as the other candidates dropped out.
 
2020-03-09 11:29:57 AM  
Those goddamn Establishment Youths not voting on purpose to derail him, that's what!
 
2020-03-09 11:31:10 AM  
So what you're saying is I probably shouldn't take out a short-term loan against my anticipated ownership stake in the means of charter bus and campaign poster production?  Fiddlesticks.
 
2020-03-09 11:33:48 AM  

nmrsnr: "Sanders's new coalition of young voters have not come out to the polls as much as he had hoped."

But THIS time, the youngs really care! has never, ever panned out. If that's your plan, prepare it to fail.


But wasn't that exactly how McGovern won in '72?
 
2020-03-09 11:34:13 AM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-03-09 11:36:17 AM  

pkjun: Polling now shows Bernie twenty points back in Michigan... which makes it one of his most favourable states for him at this point.

Incredible how, after years of purportedly escalating progressive energy and youth engagement, he's managed to fall apart this quickly.

(Or rather, incredible how other candidates dropping out revealed his pre-SC level of support was his ceiling, and how turnout figures have revealed there still isn't any particular reason why anyone should bother taking the progressive youth vote seriously.)


I think the problem is less the progressive youth vote and more that Bernie is just the wrong candidate to represent it.  While I disagree with her on some stuff, I think AOC would have much stronger support if she runs when she's eligible, although I think 2024 might be just barely too soon for her.  Then if there's a two-term Dem starting in 2024, she'd be waiting a bit.  But I think someone like her would be able to mobilize the base while not driving others away like Bernie tends to.
 
2020-03-09 11:37:49 AM  

fragMasterFlash: [Fark user image 400x306]


So if the football is the nomination, wouldn't that mean Bernie is kicking it to someone else if Lucy hadn't pulled it?
 
2020-03-09 11:39:40 AM  
If he loses out again tmrw night, he's needs to pack up and leave the race. His existence will only hurt Biden if he sticks around.
 
2020-03-09 11:40:41 AM  

fragMasterFlash: [Fark user image 400x306]


You really need to change Democrats to young voters in that meme.  That's whose letting him down currently.
 
2020-03-09 11:41:14 AM  

The Drawing Board: If he loses out again tmrw night, he's needs to pack up and leave the race. His existence will only hurt Biden if he sticks around.


Yes immediately let Biden run as far right as possible
 
2020-03-09 11:41:23 AM  

fragMasterFlash: [Fark user image 400x306]


cartoon does not hit me in the accuracies
 
2020-03-09 11:41:42 AM  

The Drawing Board: If he loses out again tmrw night, he's needs to pack up and leave the race. His existence will only hurt Biden if he sticks around.


So it's almost guaranteed he'll stay in. Bernie thinks his ego is more important than the country.
 
2020-03-09 11:42:02 AM  

jso2897: nmrsnr: "Sanders's new coalition of young voters have not come out to the polls as much as he had hoped."

But THIS time, the youngs really care! has never, ever panned out. If that's your plan, prepare it to fail.

But wasn't that exactly how McGovern won in '72?


Ahh yes, President McGovern.
 
2020-03-09 11:42:33 AM  

Gubbo: Can we stop pretending now that winning states matters. I'll accept that it might matter early, but right now it's all about how many delegates you get.

If Bernie wins 51-49 but only gets 5 more delegates, is it really all that big of a win?


No, but if he doesn't win he's toast.  He's almost certainly toast anyways, but losing Michigan would be the final nail in the coffin.  Which is where you normally put toast.

/mixing my metaphors a bit here
 
2020-03-09 11:43:46 AM  

ElwoodCuse: The Drawing Board: If he loses out again tmrw night, he's needs to pack up and leave the race. His existence will only hurt Biden if he sticks around.

Yes immediately let Biden run as far right as possible


Making yourself look impotent by still running while losing contests doesn't strike me as setting yourself up in the best manner for a platform negotiation.

Now if he started winning, but just didn't win be enough to dent the currently slim lead, it would show that there is a core there that he can hold. But if they all float away and he insists on running anyway, he's just wearing out the tread on his own tires.
 
2020-03-09 11:44:36 AM  

AlHarris31: jso2897: nmrsnr: "Sanders's new coalition of young voters have not come out to the polls as much as he had hoped."

But THIS time, the youngs really care! has never, ever panned out. If that's your plan, prepare it to fail.

But wasn't that exactly how McGovern won in '72?

Ahh yes, President McGovern.


I remember it well.
Because I got high.
 
2020-03-09 11:45:12 AM  
Its all over the corporatists won
 
2020-03-09 11:45:34 AM  

max_pooper: The Drawing Board: If he loses out again tmrw night, he's needs to pack up and leave the race. His existence will only hurt Biden if he sticks around.

So it's almost guaranteed he'll stay in. Bernie thinks his ego is more important than the country.


Polling seems to indicate he will lose every contest from now on.  He seems to be counting on a bad debate performance next Sunday from Biden to change this (although that's after Tuesday's voting, of course).
 
2020-03-09 11:45:38 AM  
If only there was a financial crisis putting people's savings in jeopardy while a pandemic putting people in an even more precarious situation going on....
 
2020-03-09 11:46:31 AM  

SomeAmerican: Bernie's objective at this point is presumably not to win but to show the strength of the progressive movement in order to get changes made to the D's platform.

So every vote counts for him, but it seems like his % standing isn't going up as the other candidates dropped out.


Of course, the problem is that he isn't showing the strength of the progressive movement.  He isn't getting the votes out.  People get hyped up and then don't vote.  The point of elections is to win them with more votes than the other guy.  If progressives/yoofs/whomever won't actually vote, then why listen to them?  Campaigning is a zero-sum game.  Every dollar spent courting Bernienistas is a dollar not spent courting old Boomers - and old Boomers vote.  They vote like old Boomers, but they will crawl over broken glass doused in coronavirus to vote.  If you tell me I have $5 to spend on messaging and my options are to a progressive coffee klatch or a Boomer bingo hall - I'm going to pick the Boomers even if I am a borderline Trotskyite - because the Boomers might actually vote for me come election time (maybe not, but it is at least in the realm of possibility-space, while the progressives just won't vote).  The general voting numbers are going up, but they are mostly turning out to be middle-of-the-road old-school liberals, not ultra-progressives.  Progressives have to turn "I care" into "I vote" or no one will take them seriously.  And if progressives were a reliable voting bloc, even Joe Biden would be hollering for the complete elimination of combustion engines and electric engines for purely pedal-powered cars.  Because The Establishment wants to stay relevant and will slavishly cater to whomever will keep them in power regardless of actual ideology.  It doesn't make people's Pure Holy Unsullied Chakras tingle, but the blunt reality is that you make politicians come to heel by making them afraid of your vote.  And staying home in pique doesn't scare them.
 
2020-03-09 11:46:31 AM  

Gubbo: Can we stop pretending now that winning states matters. I'll accept that it might matter early, but right now it's all about how many delegates you get.

If Bernie wins 51-49 but only gets 5 more delegates, is it really all that big of a win?


We shouldn't have been that way for any of the proportional contests.
 
2020-03-09 11:47:02 AM  

Karma Chameleon: fragMasterFlash: [Fark user image 400x306]

So if the football is the nomination, wouldn't that mean Bernie is kicking it to someone else if Lucy hadn't pulled it?


No.
 
2020-03-09 11:47:39 AM  
Everyone surprised by Sanders flaming out needs to get out more.  Sanders only has a majority of support online, the rest of the country clearly prefers Biden and it's showing in the ballot box.  And if you think Biden means Trump wins again the voters showing up in the primary indicate the opposite.  Plus current polls are looking good for taking the senate too.
 
2020-03-09 11:48:37 AM  
Hillary eviscerates Bernie in the hew Hulu documentary.
 
2020-03-09 11:48:40 AM  
Sanders's new coalition of young voters has not come out to the polls as much as he had hoped.

If all the free stuff he's offered them isn't enough to get them to put down their game controllers and come out to vote, nothing will.
 
2020-03-09 11:48:48 AM  

Gubbo: Can we stop pretending now that winning states matters. I'll accept that it might matter early, but right now it's all about how many delegates you get.

If Bernie wins 51-49 but only gets 5 more delegates, is it really all that big of a win?


No, in fact it's not. I think Biden can lose 8 of the next 10 states and still win the nomination. In states where Bernie is 'winning', they're very close elections, meaning there's not a big delegate difference, but in states where Biden is winning it's a complete blowout. Mississippi for example will be 38 delegates for Biden.
 
2020-03-09 11:49:17 AM  

ElwoodCuse: The Drawing Board: If he loses out again tmrw night, he's needs to pack up and leave the race. His existence will only hurt Biden if he sticks around.

Yes immediately let Biden run as far right as possible


I'm more looking to get Biden hidden away until the convention.
 
2020-03-09 11:49:20 AM  

Gubbo: Can we stop pretending now that winning states matters. I'll accept that it might matter early, but right now it's all about how many delegates you get.

If Bernie wins 51-49 but only gets 5 more delegates, is it really all that big of a win?


Bernie is 20 points behind Biden here in Michigan.
 
2020-03-09 11:52:54 AM  

FnkyTwn: Gubbo: Can we stop pretending now that winning states matters. I'll accept that it might matter early, but right now it's all about how many delegates you get.

If Bernie wins 51-49 but only gets 5 more delegates, is it really all that big of a win?

No, in fact it's not. I think Biden can lose 8 of the next 10 states and still win the nomination. In states where Bernie is 'winning', they're very close elections, meaning there's not a big delegate difference, but in states where Biden is winning it's a complete blowout. Mississippi for example will be 38 delegates for Biden.


The south has once again demolished Sanders.  Florida is looking like a complete blood bath.
 
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