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(Apple)   Some whackadoodle thinks 40-70% of the world's adult population will get coronavirus in the near future. So what if he's a professor of... epidemiology. Like I know what that means   (podcasts.apple.com) divider line
    More: Scary, Marc Lipsitch, Harvard University, epidemiologist, adults, world  
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1687 clicks; posted to Podcast » and Geek » on 02 Mar 2020 at 4:08 PM (13 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2020-03-02 3:19:04 PM  
Epidemiology? That must be a study of skin, so, yeah, probably some kind of cosmetologist or something. What does he know?

Actually, given how far too many people assess expertise, he'd probably have more credibility if he were a cosmetologist. I keep thinking we're at the bottom of the trough for anti-intellectualism, and then we go deeper.
 
2020-03-02 3:25:32 PM  
If people don't take it seriously yeah, I can see that happening.  And then 90% of those people will be fine.
 
2020-03-02 3:25:46 PM  
Isn't that someone who studies bugs?
 
2020-03-02 3:28:43 PM  
 
2020-03-02 3:28:46 PM  
A 70% chance of contracting and a 2% death rate would be really farking bad
 
2020-03-02 3:29:01 PM  

Ambivalence: Isn't that someone who studies bugs?


th.bing.comView Full Size
 
2020-03-02 3:42:08 PM  

Jack Sabbath: If people don't take it seriously yeah, I can see that happening.  And then 90% of those people will be fine.


And 14% of the survivors can/will get it again.
 
2020-03-02 3:46:37 PM  
If my math is correct, just a 2% death rate would be 4.6 million deaths if 70% of the USA gets it. Yikes.
 
2020-03-02 4:10:26 PM  
That's totally reasonable. A large percentage of folks will be asymptomatic or only have mild symptoms. This is why the flu waxes and wanes: large groups get just enough exposure to build up immunity, reducing the spread of the virus in the population until it mutates into something different enough to fool immune systems.

One thing with Covid-19 that should get MORE press is the fact that it causes severe lung damage in a large percentage of non-fatal cases, some of which is permanent. There are a lot of people losing lung capacity because it turns your lungs to Swiss cheese. But, everyone focuses on the 2% death rate instead.
 
2020-03-02 4:11:28 PM  
He's right. And it's gonna be bad. ~65 million dead worldwide.

Nature's response to overpopulation is disease. This was entirely predictable.
 
2020-03-02 4:13:40 PM  
It will probably be pretty bad. A lot of people will get seriously ill and some of the most vulnerable may not survive.  It will disrupt a lot of daily life and hurt the economy, but it's not as if it's as lethal as the Black Death.
Fark user imageView Full Size

Go away and we'll tell you if it's time to come back in again!
 
2020-03-02 4:14:03 PM  

delsydsoftware: That's totally reasonable. A large percentage of folks will be asymptomatic or only have mild symptoms. This is why the flu waxes and wanes: large groups get just enough exposure to build up immunity, reducing the spread of the virus in the population until it mutates into something different enough to fool immune systems.

One thing with Covid-19 that should get MORE press is the fact that it causes severe lung damage in a large percentage of non-fatal cases, some of which is permanent. There are a lot of people losing lung capacity because it turns your lungs to Swiss cheese. But, everyone focuses on the 2% death rate instead.


That's a fair point, but I sure as fark rather have a permanent reduction in lung capacity than be dead, which probably has something to do with it
 
2020-03-02 4:14:04 PM  

Ambivalence: Isn't that someone who studies bugs?


You're thinking of etymology.

This guy studies the theory of knowledge and reason, its origins, its limits, and what distinguishes fact from opinion.
 
2020-03-02 4:14:53 PM  

FlashHarry: He's right. And it's gonna be bad. ~65 million dead worldwide.

Nature's response to overpopulation is disease. This was entirely predictable.


Nature's response to eating and treating animals poorly, not overpopulation.
 
2020-03-02 4:15:12 PM  

Clarence Brown: Epidemiology? That must be a study of skin, so, yeah, probably some kind of cosmetologist or something. What does he know?


Did you even look at the URL?  They're botanists, for Christ sakes!
 
2020-03-02 4:15:53 PM  

Jack Sabbath: If people don't take it seriously yeah, I can see that happening.  And then 90% of those people will be fine.


Don't I look serious to you?
 
2020-03-02 4:16:51 PM  
Let's say 70% of the world population gets it (not quite the same percentage that have herpes or dental caries).

Let's say that the R0 remains the same and that the mortality rate remaims the same.

Of the 70%, 2% die, or 0.7 x 0.02. That means 0.014 percent of the worlds population.

1.4%. Of 7.5 billion is 105,000,000. Let's say that the mortality for everything and everybody else remains the same despite the large number of people dying of COVID-19 instead of heart disease, cancer, and so forth. So 59,500,000 or so people die of other causes, as normal, despite the most vulnerable people all dying of COVID-19 instead.

Yes, indeed. Quite serious. Also quite spurious. A lot of the people who die of COVID-19 are already moribund from causes that will kill 25%, 20%, 12% or 10% of us all eventually. Nobody lives forever. We are always talking about pre-mature versus inevitable deaths. We can jiggle the numbers a little, extend life, health, happiness, well-being and safety. But we can not cheat Death. The bills always come due, even for Fake Billionaires.
 
2020-03-02 4:17:23 PM  

ZZ9 Plural Z Alpha: A 70% chance of contracting and a 2% death rate would be really farking bad


100 million sounds like a lot, but 60 million a year die anyway.  What if there's a lot of overlap?
 
2020-03-02 4:18:38 PM  

Marcus Aurelius: Clarence Brown: Epidemiology? That must be a study of skin, so, yeah, probably some kind of cosmetologist or something. What does he know?

Did you even look at the URL?  They're botanists, for Christ sakes!


Botanists?   What do they have against Zippers?
 
2020-03-02 4:19:41 PM  

Marcus Aurelius: Clarence Brown: Epidemiology? That must be a study of skin, so, yeah, probably some kind of cosmetologist or something. What does he know?

Did you even look at the URL?  They're botanists, for Christ sakes!


Botonists? You can't trust those buggers. They are almost as bad as herbalists and snake oil sales people. Good on you for noticing the source. That's the first step towards fact-based reasoning.
 
2020-03-02 4:21:20 PM  

Marcus Aurelius: ZZ9 Plural Z Alpha: A 70% chance of contracting and a 2% death rate would be really farking bad

100 million sounds like a lot, but 60 million a year die anyway.  What if there's a lot of overlap?


My point, exarkly. What if there is over-lap? What if the probabilities are not independent. The math gets really hard and I quit.
 
2020-03-02 4:22:29 PM  
ZZ9 Plural Z Alpha:

That's a fair point, but I sure as fark rather have a permanent reduction in lung capacity than be dead, which probably has something to do with it

Right, but if you survive Covid 19 only to be killed by a subsequent illness because of the damage done to your lung tissue, that's not a great outcome. If you have a 98% chance of living, but 30% of infected people have damage which can lead to unrelated conditions, that 98% doesn't look quite as rosy.
 
2020-03-02 4:28:08 PM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-03-02 4:35:27 PM  

brantgoose: Marcus Aurelius: ZZ9 Plural Z Alpha: A 70% chance of contracting and a 2% death rate would be really farking bad

100 million sounds like a lot, but 60 million a year die anyway.  What if there's a lot of overlap?

My point, exarkly. What if there is over-lap? What if the probabilities are not independent. The math gets really hard and I quit.


I suspect there will be but even if it there were 100% over-lap that still double the number of military deaths during World War II in raw numbers
 
2020-03-02 4:39:19 PM  

Jack Sabbath: If people don't take it seriously yeah, I can see that happening.  And then 90% of those people will be fine.


So what is 10% dead of 40% of 8 billion people?
 
2020-03-02 4:44:49 PM  
From other sources;

although 52 percent of those tested show few to no symptoms, the Italian health authorities said.

So hey, good luck containing a disease you're not even prepared to test large numbers of people for, AMERICA!

Iran's health ministry has said 205 new cases of coronavirus have been confirmed in the country in the last 24 hours, with nine more deaths reported. The new numbers bring the total deaths in the country to 43 among 593 cases.

Looks like about double the 2% mortality rate that people keep throwing around.

The National Health Commission (China) reported on Saturday at least 47 new deaths, bringing to 2,835 the number of fatalities nationwide among 79,251 confirmed cases.

Well you can't figure a mortality rate on fatalities vs. # of cases, but even if you do, this is a 3.5% mortality rate.


Let's say 40% of America gets this and we do keep it to a 2% mortality rate.  That's still 2.65 million dead.
 
2020-03-02 4:48:53 PM  

brantgoose: Marcus Aurelius: Clarence Brown: Epidemiology? That must be a study of skin, so, yeah, probably some kind of cosmetologist or something. What does he know?

Did you even look at the URL?  They're botanists, for Christ sakes!

Botonists? You can't trust those buggers. They are almost as bad as herbalists and snake oil sales people. Good on you for noticing the source. That's the first step towards fact-based reasoning.


Oh come on now! This is getting ridiculous! Sure, they're a plague on Twitter and such as, but who needs to study bots?

Good grief.
 
2020-03-02 4:49:48 PM  

Marcus Aurelius: ZZ9 Plural Z Alpha: A 70% chance of contracting and a 2% death rate would be really farking bad

100 million sounds like a lot, but 60 million a year die anyway.  What if there's a lot of overlap?


Even if the overlap were 100% (it won't be), that's still 40 million extra deaths, or about 1 in every 190 people worldwide.

And that doesn't count those who die from other causes, because the hospitals have no free beds after accommodating all the COVID-19 cases that require hospitalization to not join that 40M.

Still feeling confident?
 
2020-03-02 4:54:14 PM  

delsydsoftware: ZZ9 Plural Z Alpha:

That's a fair point, but I sure as fark rather have a permanent reduction in lung capacity than be dead, which probably has something to do with it

Right, but if you survive Covid 19 only to be killed by a subsequent illness because of the damage done to your lung tissue, that's not a great outcome. If you have a 98% chance of living, but 30% of infected people have damage which can lead to unrelated conditions, that 98% doesn't look quite as rosy.


Yeah chinese doctors have reported that a lot of those who recover have permanent damage to their lungs
 
2020-03-02 4:57:04 PM  
Also when it comes to health stats it also doesn't matter. What I mean if 2% is important data to public health officials, and the breakdown of deaths by age and risk factors is huge in terms of helping Drs make decisions. So take me for instance I am in my thirties so I have a 0.2 percent chance of death. Not even 1 percent a good chance I wouldn't even know it if I had it etc. That said if I am in 0.2 then this stat is meaningless. That's why this is a big deal how people miss this I don't know.
 
2020-03-02 4:58:49 PM  

delsydsoftware: That's totally reasonable. A large percentage of folks will be asymptomatic or only have mild symptoms. This is why the flu waxes and wanes: large groups get just enough exposure to build up immunity, reducing the spread of the virus in the population until it mutates into something different enough to fool immune systems.

One thing with Covid-19 that should get MORE press is the fact that it causes severe lung damage in a large percentage of non-fatal cases, some of which is permanent. There are a lot of people losing lung capacity because it turns your lungs to Swiss cheese. But, everyone focuses on the 2% death rate instead.


Where can I read about this? Got a reputable source?
 
2020-03-02 5:03:11 PM  

KungFuJunkie: delsydsoftware: That's totally reasonable. A large percentage of folks will be asymptomatic or only have mild symptoms. This is why the flu waxes and wanes: large groups get just enough exposure to build up immunity, reducing the spread of the virus in the population until it mutates into something different enough to fool immune systems.

One thing with Covid-19 that should get MORE press is the fact that it causes severe lung damage in a large percentage of non-fatal cases, some of which is permanent. There are a lot of people losing lung capacity because it turns your lungs to Swiss cheese. But, everyone focuses on the 2% death rate instead.

Where can I read about this? Got a reputable source?


I was curious so I went looking. This was the best I could find but seems to be limited to the severe cases which would make sense.

National Geographic
 
2020-03-02 5:03:52 PM  

sys_64738: Marcus Aurelius: ZZ9 Plural Z Alpha: A 70% chance of contracting and a 2% death rate would be really farking bad

100 million sounds like a lot, but 60 million a year die anyway.  What if there's a lot of overlap?

Even if the overlap were 100% (it won't be), that's still 40 million extra deaths, or about 1 in every 190 people worldwide.

And that doesn't count those who die from other causes, because the hospitals have no free beds after accommodating all the COVID-19 cases that require hospitalization to not join that 40M.

Still feeling confident?


The money metric is how many of infected people require enhanced oxygen or ventilation (and thus hospitalization or ICU). That can cause the Case Fatality Rate to skyrocket. We need to watch the numbers coming out of South Korea and Italy very close; they're likely to be true numbers. Japan has the Olympics its government is likely to protect.

Your point is very important too, however. Everyone is going to need to avoid the hospital for the next 1-2 years. Far easier said than done (sorry folks... sorry; it affects my family too, but it's the truth).
 
2020-03-02 5:06:35 PM  

The Googles Do Nothing: [Fark user image 279x181]


Epidemiology has a lot of art in it.  It's less of a pure science and much more an exercise in statistical analysis.  It's basically impossible to control for or limit variables.

/still has to be done.
//just saying its extremely difficult
///doesn't produce clear answers.
 
2020-03-02 5:10:37 PM  

clancifer: If my math is correct, just a 2% death rate would be 4.6 million deaths if 70% of the USA gets it. Yikes.


2017 (most recent year I could find) Mortality in the USA was 2.8 million.  How many of the 4.6 million would have died anyway?

The numbers are small as a percentage of total population and the country could easily recover but when it is someone you know (as it almost certainly would be) it would feel catastrophic.
 
2020-03-02 5:14:28 PM  

brantgoose: ... But we can not cheat Death. The bills always come due, even for Fake Billionaires.


"Numberless are the world's wonders, but none
More wonderful than man; the storm gray sea
Yields to his prows, the huge crests bear him high;
Earth, holy and inexhaustible, is graven
With shining furrows where his plows have gone
Year after year, the timeless labor of stallions.

"The light-boned birds and beasts that cling to cover,
The lithe fish lighting their reaches of dim water,
All are taken, tamed in the net of his mind;
The lion on the hill, the wild horse windy-maned,
Resign to him; and his blunt yoke has broken
The sultry shoulders of the mountain bull.

"Words also, and thought as rapid as air,
He fashions to his good use; statecraft is his
And his the skill that deflects the arrows of snow,
The spears of winter rain: from every wind
He has made himself secure--from all but one:
In the late wind of death he cannot stand."

- Sophocles, Antigone

also adapted in the brilliant musical The Gospel at Colonus
 
2020-03-02 5:15:37 PM  
So I actually listened to the podcast. It was released on Saturday and he basically says a lot more testing needs to done to figure out where it is, but it looks like the time to control it has passed so you might as well accept that it will be everywhere.
 
2020-03-02 5:20:28 PM  
Even People with big degrees can attention whore: see also Dr Drew and Dr Oz.
 
2020-03-02 5:21:34 PM  

stuhayes2010: Even People with big degrees can attention whore: see also Dr Drew and Dr Oz.


Yeah if I see Dr. Drew's video again where he says there have been 300 deaths and flu is work I am gonna scream. Not sure when it was shot but that shiat is aging badly.
 
2020-03-02 5:23:05 PM  
I want to see Trump try to pronounce epidemiology
 
2020-03-02 5:26:32 PM  

not enough beer: KungFuJunkie: delsydsoftware: That's totally reasonable. A large percentage of folks will be asymptomatic or only have mild symptoms. This is why the flu waxes and wanes: large groups get just enough exposure to build up immunity, reducing the spread of the virus in the population until it mutates into something different enough to fool immune systems.

One thing with Covid-19 that should get MORE press is the fact that it causes severe lung damage in a large percentage of non-fatal cases, some of which is permanent. There are a lot of people losing lung capacity because it turns your lungs to Swiss cheese. But, everyone focuses on the 2% death rate instead.

Where can I read about this? Got a reputable source?

I was curious so I went looking. This was the best I could find but seems to be limited to the severe cases which would make sense.

National Geographic


Very informative, thanks!
 
2020-03-02 5:27:31 PM  
So what about all the other professors of epidemiology, what do they think?
 
2020-03-02 5:30:48 PM  

Jack Sabbath: If people don't take it seriously yeah, I can see that happening.  And then 90% of those people will be fine.


Fine as in not dead. I had a co-worker who was hospitalized for months due to complications from H1N1. I wouldn't consider that to be fine.
 
2020-03-02 6:11:07 PM  

Oliver Twisted: clancifer: If my math is correct, just a 2% death rate would be 4.6 million deaths if 70% of the USA gets it. Yikes.

2017 (most recent year I could find) Mortality in the USA was 2.8 million.  How many of the 4.6 million would have died anyway?


So, that's 1.8M dead beyond what we would expect from a typical year.  How many will be the top breadwinner in the family, a 30-something who was otherwise in very good health?  How many experts in their respective fields vs ditch-diggers?  How many dual-parent homes are going to end up as single-parent homes?  Also, keep in mind that it's likely to be 1.8M additional dead by Labor Day, if not the 4th of July.

Will COVID make annual appearances like seasonal flu, or will it be a constant in everyday like?  If it remains a constant, for how long?  Years?  How many years will it take for people to feel reasonably safe being out in a crowd?  How many will just stay home rather than risk getting sick?  This virus will gut the travel industry, the vacation industry, most sports, etc., long before any vaccine can be tested and approved.

2nd-, 3rd-, and 4th-order effects will impact almost everyone.  Today's stock market rise was just the 1% snapping up bargains.  Let's see the Dow-Jones in 2 months, when the dead number in the thousands, and those 2nd- and 3rd-order effects kick in.
 
2020-03-02 6:26:16 PM  
I've been having the little one play with the local coronavirus cases. I hear it's an easier recovery if you get it out of the way earlier in life
 
2020-03-02 6:34:14 PM  

indy_kid: Will COVID make annual appearances like seasonal flu, or will it be a constant in everyday like? If it remains a constant, for how long? Years? How many years will it take for people to feel reasonably safe being out in a crowd? How many will just stay home rather than risk getting sick? This virus will gut the travel industry, the vacation industry, most sports, etc., long before any vaccine can be tested and approved.

2nd-, 3rd-, and 4th-order effects will impact almost everyone. Today's stock market rise was just the 1% snapping up bargains. Let's see the Dow-Jones in 2 months, when the dead number in the thousands, and those 2nd- and 3rd-order effects kick in.


This. The reaction to the virus will probably be worse than the virus itself.
 
2020-03-02 6:48:38 PM  

sys_64738: Still feeling confident?


Whoa Nellie.  The only thing I'm confident of is that the horse has left the barn, and that this disease will do what it's going to do.  I sure hope it doesn't kill me or my friends and family, or God forbid, anyone here.  But if it doesn't?  I am fairly certain that something else will eventually.
 
2020-03-02 7:56:32 PM  
near future on a geological timescale?
 
2020-03-02 9:37:21 PM  
It's gonna be the end of us all just like, SARS, MERS, Swine Flu...
 
2020-03-02 9:49:19 PM  

ZZ9 Plural Z Alpha: A 70% chance of contracting and a 2% death rate would be really farking bad


Hell, the LOWEST percentage he gives, 40% infection, let's divide that in half.

20%.

20% of the US is 65 million people. A 2% fatality rate is 1.3 million dead.

20% of the planet is 280 million dead.
 
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