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(Straits Times)   Oh, nothing to worry about today ... South Korea just raised their alert to highest level as number of coronavirus cases jump sharply. Nothing to see, move along, everything is just fine   (straitstimes.com) divider line
    More: Sick, South Korea, Daegu, Gyeongsangbuk-do, Seoul, cases of coronavirus, Gyeongbu Line, south-eastern city of Daegu, Korean War  
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2572 clicks; posted to Main » on 23 Feb 2020 at 10:45 AM (18 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



Voting Results (Smartest)
View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest

 
2020-02-23 10:50:50 AM  
36 votes:

deadsanta: Yawn. Call me when it hits 150,000 deaths annually, like "the flu" does.


All you need is 1 million infected and youll get there
 
2020-02-23 10:57:15 AM  
21 votes:
If it's bad in South Korea then it's REALLY bad in North Korea, and since they don't tell their people anything, they probably don't even know what they're sick with and how contagious it is. Eek.
 
2020-02-23 11:42:43 AM  
17 votes:

jso2897: Hachitori: AAAAGGGGHHHH: I've been hearing that Trump is actually hoping for this pandemic to sweep across the US so he has an excuse to cancel the elections and declare marshal law. I'm wondering if I can make a surgical face mask out of tinfoil to match my hat.

[Fark user image 850x574]

Poor Donnie. How mean and unfair of people to report his words and deeds.


The problem is when you work Trump into everything, even when he's not related, people find it tiresome.  It actually become counterproductive because people who would listen and agree with you otherwise will tune you out when you have a legitimate point.  You essentially become the political version of Jehovah's Witnesses.
 
2020-02-23 11:18:55 AM  
17 votes:

AAAAGGGGHHHH: I've been hearing that Trump is actually hoping for this pandemic to sweep across the US so he has an excuse to cancel the elections and declare marshal law. I'm wondering if I can make a surgical face mask out of tinfoil to match my hat.


Fark user imageView Full Size

 
2020-02-23 12:24:17 PM  
13 votes:
I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that maybe trading our souls for cheap plastic shiat from a country with a totalitarian government and a disregard for basic food sanitation procedures in its major economic hubs might not have been worth it.
 
2020-02-23 11:25:40 AM  
12 votes:

deadsanta: Yawn. Call me when it hits 150,000 deaths annually, like "the flu" does.


Well, it's way more transmittable than the flu. That's the concern.
 
2020-02-23 10:55:46 AM  
12 votes:
The irony is that the things that governments are supposed to do in these cases are exactly the actions that make people start to worry.
 
2020-02-23 11:30:13 AM  
11 votes:

Hachitori: AAAAGGGGHHHH: I've been hearing that Trump is actually hoping for this pandemic to sweep across the US so he has an excuse to cancel the elections and declare marshal law. I'm wondering if I can make a surgical face mask out of tinfoil to match my hat.

[Fark user image 850x574]


Poor Donnie. How mean and unfair of people to report his words and deeds.
 
2020-02-23 12:09:01 PM  
10 votes:

Leader O'Cola: oh boy, now we can hear more scary and stupid news-anchor people chanting "ooga booga! exponential increase!"


Funny you should mention that, now that the numbers from outside of China are becoming more clear.

Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-02-23 9:56:34 AM  
9 votes:
Subby, you're not going to distract us from the Epstein case.
 
2020-02-23 12:43:43 PM  
8 votes:

cman: Marine1: I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that maybe trading our souls for cheap plastic shiat from a country with a totalitarian government and a disregard for basic food sanitation procedures in its major economic hubs might not have been worth it.

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that maybe Trumpist ideas such as protectionism is insanely idiotic.


There's nothing "Trumpist" about realizing that we need to find other countries to do business with if the Chinese don't improve.

This is the third time in two decades that I can remember off the top of my head that some deadly virus has come out of China.
 
2020-02-23 11:18:25 AM  
8 votes:

Butterflew: If it's bad in South Korea then it's REALLY bad in North Korea, and since they don't tell their people anything, they probably don't even know what they're sick with and how contagious it is. Eek.


I would have thought that N Korea which before the outbreak isolates itself and doesn't allow its citizens free travel, might have little opportunity to get infected.

but

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/0​2​/coronavirus-korea-lethal-china-200219​132141267.html
"There is a thriving black market network up on the North Korean/Chinese border," saidNicholas David Thomas, an associate professor at City University of Hong Kong and a specialist in health security in Asia. "And so all you need is one infected person to be smuggled in or smuggled out ... and either state wouldn't immediately know."
 
2020-02-23 11:07:59 AM  
8 votes:

deadsanta: the flu


DRINK!
 
2020-02-23 10:49:56 AM  
6 votes:
Yawn. Call me when it hits 150,000 deaths annually, like "the flu" does.
 
2020-02-23 2:29:27 PM  
4 votes:
Meanwhile, actual scientists are telling people to STFU about "OMGAWD BIOWEAPONS" nonsense.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/​0​2/scientists-strongly-condemn-rumors-a​nd-conspiracy-theories-about-origin-co​ronavirus
 
2020-02-23 2:15:49 PM  
4 votes:

AAAAGGGGHHHH: Kind of peculiar how this virus appeared at a time when populism worldwide is becoming too big for the elites to contain, isn't it?

Ask yourself something; how come no politicians or rich people have come down with this virus yet? Hmmmmmm.........


How would we know?
 
2020-02-23 1:30:18 PM  
4 votes:

feanorn: And then there's this article from the NY Post (https://nypost.com/2020/02/22/dont-bu​y-chinas-story-the-coronavirus-may-hav​e-leaked-from-a-lab/ ) that contains these tidbits -

* China's Ministry of Science and Technology released a new directive, "Instructions on strengthening biosecurity management in microbiology labs that handle advanced viruses like the novel coronavirus." The only such lab is in Wuhan.

* It reports that Chinese researchers often resell animals used in experiments to street vendors when they're done with them.


If you doubt this, you dont know anything about China.
 
2020-02-23 12:28:56 PM  
4 votes:

Marine1: I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that maybe trading our souls for cheap plastic shiat from a country with a totalitarian government and a disregard for basic food sanitation procedures in its major economic hubs might not have been worth it.


https://nypost.com/2020/02/22/dont-bu​y​-chinas-story-the-coronavirus-may-have​-leaked-from-a-lab/amp/

This was submitted and rejected by fark 17 hours ago. It came from a lab.

/No, not a dog.
 
2020-02-23 11:52:21 AM  
4 votes:

Mindlock: jso2897: Hachitori: AAAAGGGGHHHH: I've been hearing that Trump is actually hoping for this pandemic to sweep across the US so he has an excuse to cancel the elections and declare marshal law. I'm wondering if I can make a surgical face mask out of tinfoil to match my hat.

[Fark user image 850x574]

Poor Donnie. How mean and unfair of people to report his words and deeds.

The problem is when you work Trump into everything, even when he's not related, people find it tiresome.  It actually become counterproductive because people who would listen and agree with you otherwise will tune you out when you have a legitimate point.  You essentially become the political version of Jehovah's Witnesses.


I wasn't the one who brought him up. Also, it is appropriate:https://twitter.com/Chris​Lu44/status/1​229157181188169733

If Donnie doesn't want his words and actions coming back on him, he should choose them more wisely.
 
2020-02-23 11:48:51 AM  
4 votes:

brantgoose: thornhill: deadsanta: Yawn. Call me when it hits 150,000 deaths annually, like "the flu" does.

Well, it's way more transmittable than the flu. That's the concern.

But if it is not super fatal to most of the infected, transmission is sort of like vaccination--it will quickly disappear back into the gigantic of mass of "head colds" and "pneumonia" cases.

Evolution never sleeps, unlike The Donald in his Deep, Dark, Derp State.


Huh?

The death rate for the flu in the U.S. is usually 0.1%; COVID-19 in China is 2.3%.

Now of course you could argue that it's so high in China because they were slow to recognize the outbreak, have a less advance health care system, and frankly care less about people dying. But if COVID-19 broke out in the U.S. and the death rate was just 0.5%, that would be a lot of dead people.
 
2020-02-23 11:43:54 AM  
4 votes:

Hachitori: AAAAGGGGHHHH: I've been hearing that Trump is actually hoping for this pandemic to sweep across the US so he has an excuse to cancel the elections and declare marshal law. I'm wondering if I can make a surgical face mask out of tinfoil to match my hat.

[Fark user image image 850x574]


But what if the cloud does look exactly like Donald Trump kicking a puppy?
 
2020-02-23 1:12:12 PM  
3 votes:

AAAAGGGGHHHH: Kind of peculiar how this virus appeared at a time when populism worldwide is becoming too big for the elites to contain, isn't it?


It's inconvenient for more than a few political ideologies, as pandemics and disasters tend to be.

Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-02-23 12:32:56 PM  
3 votes:

Marine1: I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that maybe trading our souls for cheap plastic shiat from a country with a totalitarian government and a disregard for basic food sanitation procedures in its major economic hubs might not have been worth it.


I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that maybe Trumpist ideas such as protectionism is insanely idiotic.
 
2020-02-23 12:29:11 PM  
3 votes:

thornhill: brantgoose: thornhill: deadsanta: Yawn. Call me when it hits 150,000 deaths annually, like "the flu" does.

Well, it's way more transmittable than the flu. That's the concern.

But if it is not super fatal to most of the infected, transmission is sort of like vaccination--it will quickly disappear back into the gigantic of mass of "head colds" and "pneumonia" cases.

Evolution never sleeps, unlike The Donald in his Deep, Dark, Derp State.

Huh?

The death rate for the flu in the U.S. is usually 0.1%; COVID-19 in China is 2.3%.

Now of course you could argue that it's so high in China because they were slow to recognize the outbreak, have a less advance health care system, and frankly care less about people dying. But if COVID-19 broke out in the U.S. and the death rate was just 0.5%, that would be a lot of dead people.


A large part of what makes the Chinese mortality rate so high is that Wuhan/Hubei's mortality rate is high. The rate in other provinces is not nearly as terrible. What makes the difference is that Wuhan/Hubei's hospitals got completely overwhelmed, while the hospitals elsewhere are alert and have excess capacity.

It's a pretty interesting model for impact of the disease in high-health resource areas vs low resource areas. Those of us in advanced, developed nations would take some solace in the non-Hubei numbers because that models our health system better. Those in poor countries with poor health infrastructure should see Hubei's numbers and shudder.

Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-02-23 11:53:59 AM  
3 votes:

DoughyGuy: The irony is that the things that governments are supposed to do in these cases are exactly the actions that make people start to worry.


That's why the Trump Aministration's policy is aimed at suppressing detection rather than prevention and containment.

Checkmate, liberalos.
 
2020-02-23 11:51:49 AM  
3 votes:
Governments that hide the real numbers are at fault for this.
 
2020-02-23 11:44:07 AM  
3 votes:

brantgoose: jso2897: Hachitori: AAAAGGGGHHHH: I've been hearing that Trump is actually hoping for this pandemic to sweep across the US so he has an excuse to cancel the elections and declare marshal law. I'm wondering if I can make a surgical face mask out of tinfoil to match my hat.

[Fark user image 850x574]

Poor Donnie. How mean and unfair of people to report his words and deeds.

Sounds like a mad left wing conspiracy theory.

I am sending hopes and prayers that it isn't Trump's real plan.


I was just responding to the cartoon, and it's assertion that the mean old media spends it's days falsely accusing poor Donnie of kicking puppies.
Which is not exactly the case, in truth and in fact.
 
2020-02-23 11:34:58 AM  
3 votes:

thornhill: deadsanta: Yawn. Call me when it hits 150,000 deaths annually, like "the flu" does.

Well, it's way more transmittable than the flu. That's the concern.


But if it is not super fatal to most of the infected, transmission is sort of like vaccination--it will quickly disappear back into the gigantic of mass of "head colds" and "pneumonia" cases.

Evolution never sleeps, unlike The Donald in his Deep, Dark, Derp State.
 
2020-02-23 10:52:38 AM  
3 votes:
oh boy, now we can hear more scary and stupid news-anchor people chanting "ooga booga! exponential increase!"
 
2020-02-23 6:06:51 PM  
2 votes:

Birnone: If there were random people who were infected, and none of them had one central link to each other, THEN I'd call that an outbreak.


That's not how infectious diseases work.
 
2020-02-23 4:45:59 PM  
2 votes:

hardinparamedic: T Baggins: The pedantic fark fights over news media using "exponential" in the colloquial sense in which 99+% of readers would understand it grows exponentially more tiresome.

The important part is you feel superior.


The important part is you feel superior saying "The important part is you feel superior".
 
2020-02-23 3:25:30 PM  
2 votes:
The pedantic fark fights over news media using "exponential" in the colloquial sense in which 99+% of readers would understand it grows exponentially more tiresome.
 
2020-02-23 3:12:09 PM  
2 votes:

ski9600: lolmao500: deadsanta: Yawn. Call me when it hits 150,000 deaths annually, like "the flu" does.

All you need is 1 million infected and youll get there

I don't think a 2% death rate quite gets me there.

/I was told there would be maths


If there's a full outbreak, it's going to be a lot more than 1 million affected.

Up to 20 percent of the US gets the flu each year. If 50 million people got it and 2 percent died, that's 1 million deaths.
 
2020-02-23 1:53:25 PM  
2 votes:

Leader O'Cola: common sense is an oxymoron:

I'm usually the one obsessing over proper definitions and scientific accuracy, yet here I am defending dumbed-down reporting.  Weird.


My guess is that until 2 hours ago, you had no idea what logistic growth even was.


Explain how (not) knowing what something is called has any effect on being able to compare its shape to that of something else.

Do you get this upset when someone refers to a ballistic trajectory as parabolic rather than the aboveground segment of an elliptical orbit?
 
2020-02-23 1:22:18 PM  
2 votes:

AAAAGGGGHHHH: Kind of peculiar how this virus appeared at a time when populism worldwide is becoming too big for the elites to contain, isn't it?

Ask yourself something; how come no politicians or rich people have come down with this virus yet? Hmmmmmm.........


Fark user imageView Full Size


And it's unisex!

Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-02-23 12:41:58 PM  
2 votes:

HairBolus: Butterflew: If it's bad in South Korea then it's REALLY bad in North Korea, and since they don't tell their people anything, they probably don't even know what they're sick with and how contagious it is. Eek.

I would have thought that N Korea which before the outbreak isolates itself and doesn't allow its citizens free travel, might have little opportunity to get infected.

but

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/02​/coronavirus-korea-lethal-china-200219​132141267.html
"There is a thriving black market network up on the North Korean/Chinese border," saidNicholas David Thomas, an associate professor at City University of Hong Kong and a specialist in health security in Asia. "And so all you need is one infected person to be smuggled in or smuggled out ... and either state wouldn't immediately know."


You'd have to be one sick fark to want to be smuggled in to Best Korea.
 
2020-02-23 12:41:06 PM  
2 votes:

common sense is an oxymoron: Leader O'Cola: common sense is an oxymoron: Leader O'Cola: oh boy, now we can hear more scary and stupid news-anchor people chanting "ooga booga! exponential increase!"

Funny you should mention that, now that the numbers from outside of China are becoming more clear.

[Fark user image 756x539]

perform a regression fit for d(Y)/dt  =f(Y)

is the fit better with  f  as a 1st order or 2nd order polynomial?

Is the discrepancy greater than the thickness of the data curve?  There are far worse cases than this of the media dumbing things down.


the media says "exponential growth"   for just about everything that goes up. in a non-linear response.
It is tiresome, and contributes significantly to stupidity in the mass populace.

Given that exponential growth goes to (almost) infinitely more people infected than were even alive when the epidemic started, and logistic growth does not ever go past more people infected than were alive when epidemic started,   I'd argue the difference is pretty appreciable.
 
2020-02-23 12:07:11 PM  
2 votes:

Trik: hardinparamedic: Trik: Read that SK had a cultist super shedder or infecter.
Some doomsday cult guy infected a few dozen people and no telling how many they infected.

Im gonna need to read this in weekly world news before I believe it.

google "south korea super spreader"


What in the holy shiat?
 
2020-02-23 12:02:21 PM  
2 votes:

DoughyGuy: The irony is that the things that governments are supposed to do in these cases are exactly the actions that make people start to worry.


Don't worry, this thread is full of experts to interpret these measured and careful responses and use that to freak out and tell everyone we're doomed.

And by "experts" I mean "they've read The Stand once, maybe even twice". The unabridged version too. But hey, a situation they have no expertise or control over is totally something they need to chime in with panic even though it does nothing and makes things worse.
 
2020-02-23 11:26:22 AM  
2 votes:

GungFu: Just read an article from some news source on Facebook, and it mentions that in both Singapore and South Korea, there were increasing cases involving Christians. Turns out there has been infections from church congregations in both countries.

Thank you Jesus! You sick fark!


Karma is finally hitting the religious people ruining the world. I hope it spreads to mecca, jerusalem, the vatican and in utah
 
2020-02-23 11:21:29 AM  
2 votes:

DoughyGuy: The irony is that the things that governments are supposed to do in these cases are exactly the actions that make people start to worry.


Came here to say this.

We'd have a much bigger problem if they were ignoring the problem because they didn't want to spook the stock market - like Trump.
 
2020-02-23 11:17:24 AM  
2 votes:
Godspeed You! Black Emperor-East Hastings (28 Days Later Short Version)
Youtube jBw7k85uaDQ
 
2020-02-23 11:04:56 AM  
2 votes:
Between this and the new 27 days....

Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-02-23 10:59:16 AM  
2 votes:
I've been hearing that Trump is actually hoping for this pandemic to sweep across the US so he has an excuse to cancel the elections and declare marshal law. I'm wondering if I can make a surgical face mask out of tinfoil to match my hat.
 
2020-02-23 8:18:58 PM  
1 vote:
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-02-23 6:43:32 PM  
1 vote:

seanpg71: Leader O'Cola: common sense is an oxymoron:

I'm usually the one obsessing over proper definitions and scientific accuracy, yet here I am defending dumbed-down reporting.  Weird.


My guess is that until 2 hours ago, you had no idea what logistic growth even was.


The entire curve is an S curve.  Yeah.  We know.  That's how diseases work because there aren't infinite people.  That isn't news.  Reporting that the growth will ultimately follow that curve doesn't tell us what is happening now.

Are we in a relatively flat section?  Are we in the section that's still ramping up?  Or are we in the section where it's starting to level off?

The news is reporting that we're still in the part of that curve where it looks more or less like an exponential and we haven't started leveling off yet.


if only we understood the actual underlying mechanics of multi-node networked systems of coupled delay differential equation epidemic models.  Then we could fit parameters to the data, and predict what the long term outcome would be.  ... if only.   But instead, let's go with "it's going to infinity because the math is too hard otherwise!"   where's that stupid "today you have 1 husband/wife" graph?
 
2020-02-23 6:41:35 PM  
1 vote:

Leader O'Cola: Given that exponential growth goes to (almost) infinitely more people infected than were even alive when the epidemic started


Yes, that's right. The MSM mainstream media is trying to tell you that more people will die from COVID-19 than those who are alive, meaning that all dead people will be reanimated and the virus will make more people, just so it can kill them.

Stop being a pedant. This is bad, we all know it's bad, and unless Earth wins the virus mutation lottery, millions of people are going to die - not only from the disease, but as a result of overwhelmed healthcare systems and interruptions in commerce.

It's damned near impossible to overstate how bad this is likely to get. The people who are saying "durr it's not as bad as the flu" are either woefully ignorant or just not very bright.
 
2020-02-23 5:56:23 PM  
1 vote:
I notice that in these outbreak stories there's always a specific circumstance involved, and the dead are older people.

For instance, the way I read this story, there is no outbreak in South Korea. The outbreak is among members of a particular church. This church happens to be in South Korea, this could have happened anywhere.

If there were random people who were infected, and none of them had one central link to each other, THEN I'd call that an outbreak.

If there was a city in South Korea, and it had a couple of hundred newly detected people who were infected, and these people were from all walks of life and various types of backgrounds, and the dead consisted of 18-40 year olds, now we're seeing something scary. Until then meh.
 
2020-02-23 5:42:58 PM  
1 vote:

T Baggins: hardinparamedic: T Baggins: The pedantic fark fights over news media using "exponential" in the colloquial sense in which 99+% of readers would understand it grows exponentially more tiresome.

The important part is you feel superior.

The important part is you feel superior saying "The important part is you feel superior".


This is the most important exchange that has ever taken place.
 
2020-02-23 4:06:07 PM  
1 vote:

T Baggins: The pedantic fark fights over news media using "exponential" in the colloquial sense in which 99+% of readers would understand it grows exponentially more tiresome.


The important part is you feel superior.
 
2020-02-23 2:41:55 PM  
1 vote:

Leader O'Cola: common sense is an oxymoron:

I'm usually the one obsessing over proper definitions and scientific accuracy, yet here I am defending dumbed-down reporting.  Weird.


My guess is that until 2 hours ago, you had no idea what logistic growth even was.



The entire curve is an S curve.  Yeah.  We know.  That's how diseases work because there aren't infinite people.  That isn't news.  Reporting that the growth will ultimately follow that curve doesn't tell us what is happening now.

Are we in a relatively flat section?  Are we in the section that's still ramping up?  Or are we in the section where it's starting to level off?

The news is reporting that we're still in the part of that curve where it looks more or less like an exponential and we haven't started leveling off yet.
 
2020-02-23 2:00:19 PM  
1 vote:

Hachitori: AAAAGGGGHHHH: I've been hearing that Trump is actually hoping for this pandemic to sweep across the US so he has an excuse to cancel the elections and declare marshal law. I'm wondering if I can make a surgical face mask out of tinfoil to match my hat.

[Fark user image image 850x574]


I love it when Dolt45 apologists out themselves.
 
2020-02-23 1:54:45 PM  
1 vote:

brantgoose: Prof. Frink: GungFu: Just read an article from some news source on Facebook, and it mentions that in both Singapore and South Korea, there were increasing cases involving Christians. Turns out there has been infections from church congregations in both countries.

Thank you Jesus! You sick fark!

"He had a coron'a thorns"?

I blame the Kiss of Peace. Too much touchy-feely in the Christian Camp nowadays. Especially under the Beast 666.


Shaking hands with everyone during the peace be with you bit, and sipping from the one cup during communion. Hopefully the places that do this have changed their ways for now.
 
2020-02-23 1:32:34 PM  
1 vote:

Harlee: [Fark user image 850x305]


And that graph is is China aint lying which they certainly are
 
2020-02-23 1:30:37 PM  
1 vote:

Churchy LaFemme: Get a room, you two.


Gross.  Thats how you catch the cooties. Exponentionally..
 
2020-02-23 1:27:35 PM  
1 vote:
common sense is an oxymoron:

I'm usually the one obsessing over proper definitions and scientific accuracy, yet here I am defending dumbed-down reporting.  Weird.


My guess is that until 2 hours ago, you had no idea what logistic growth even was.
 
2020-02-23 1:14:29 PM  
1 vote:

feanorn: China's Ministry of Science and Technology released a new directive, "Instructions on strengthening biosecurity management in microbiology labs that handle advanced viruses like the novel coronavirus." The only such lab is in Wuhan.


China has dozens of BSL-2 and BSL-3 labs. The Lab in Wuhan is the Country's only BSL-4 lab.
 
2020-02-23 1:13:19 PM  
1 vote:

common sense is an oxymoron: Leader O'Cola: common sense is an oxymoron: Leader O'Cola: common sense is an oxymoron: Leader O'Cola: oh boy, now we can hear more scary and stupid news-anchor people chanting "ooga booga! exponential increase!"

Funny you should mention that, now that the numbers from outside of China are becoming more clear.

[Fark user image 756x539]

perform a regression fit for d(Y)/dt  =f(Y)

is the fit better with  f  as a 1st order or 2nd order polynomial?

Is the discrepancy greater than the thickness of the data curve?  There are far worse cases than this of the media dumbing things down.

the media says "exponential growth"   for just about everything that goes up. in a non-linear response.
It is tiresome, and contributes significantly to stupidity in the mass populace.

Given that exponential growth goes to (almost) infinitely more people infected than were even alive when the epidemic started, and logistic growth does not ever go past more people infected than were alive when epidemic started,   I'd argue the difference is pretty appreciable.

What does that have to do with the current fit of the growth curve to an exponential function?


dy/dt = k*y    exponential growth

dy/dt = k*y*(1-y/M)    logistic growth

one is bounded, one is not. one is physically realistic, one is not.

If you don't understand that regions of logistic growth "look" like the exponential curve, I can't help you.


/ no delay terms
// no coupled equations


if you want like the "grade school 101" of epidemic modeling
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compart​m​ental_models_in_epidemiology#The_SEIR_​model
 
2020-02-23 1:13:06 PM  
1 vote:

Toxophil: Marine1: I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that maybe trading our souls for cheap plastic shiat from a country with a totalitarian government and a disregard for basic food sanitation procedures in its major economic hubs might not have been worth it.

https://nypost.com/2020/02/22/dont-buy​-chinas-story-the-coronavirus-may-have​-leaked-from-a-lab/amp/

This was submitted and rejected by fark 17 hours ago. It came from a lab.

/No, not a dog.


It's not captain tripps, dude. It's also a terribly shiatty biowarfare agent.
 
2020-02-23 12:39:07 PM  
1 vote:
Kind of peculiar how this virus appeared at a time when populism worldwide is becoming too big for the elites to contain, isn't it?

Ask yourself something; how come no politicians or rich people have come down with this virus yet? Hmmmmmm.........
 
2020-02-23 12:25:25 PM  
1 vote:

Marine1: I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that maybe trading our souls for cheap plastic shiat from a country with a totalitarian government and a disregard for basic food sanitation procedures in its major economic hubs might not have been worth it.


Yep but you still wont hear any politician advocating cutting all links to china until they change their ways.
 
2020-02-23 12:07:10 PM  
1 vote:

CRM119: Leader O'Cola: oh boy, now we can hear more scary and stupid news-anchor people chanting "ooga booga! exponential increase!"

If the exponent is just above 1 it will increase - at 1.06 it will double the count every 12 transmissions



GROSSLY oversimplifying here, but epidemics/pandemics are described by sets of simultaneous coupled delay differential logistic growth equations.

NOT exponential growth. there is a very big difference.
 
2020-02-23 12:05:52 PM  
1 vote:

hardinparamedic: Trik: Read that SK had a cultist super shedder or infecter.
Some doomsday cult guy infected a few dozen people and no telling how many they infected.

Im gonna need to read this in weekly world news before I believe it.


google "south korea super spreader"
 
2020-02-23 12:03:41 PM  
1 vote:

Trik: Read that SK had a cultist super shedder or infecter.
Some doomsday cult guy infected a few dozen people and no telling how many they infected.


Im gonna need to read this in weekly world news before I believe it.
 
2020-02-23 11:56:40 AM  
1 vote:

thornhill: and the death rate was just 0.5%, that would be a lot of dead people.


like 3 or 4 school shootings worth .
 
2020-02-23 11:50:53 AM  
1 vote:
Read that SK had a cultist super shedder or infecter.
Some doomsday cult guy infected a few dozen people and no telling how many they infected.
 
2020-02-23 11:47:37 AM  
1 vote:

brantgoose: thornhill: deadsanta: Yawn. Call me when it hits 150,000 deaths annually, like "the flu" does.

Well, it's way more transmittable than the flu. That's the concern.

But if it is not super fatal to most of the infected, transmission is sort of like vaccination--it will quickly disappear back into the gigantic of mass of "head colds" and "pneumonia" cases.



Serious medical question: do we know if "got it once, got over it" confers any immunity against future exposure?
 
2020-02-23 11:39:16 AM  
1 vote:

jim32rr: [Youtube-video https://www.youtube.com/embed/jBw7k85u​aDQ]


I just did the 28 Days joke in another thread. Get your own smart and funny votes!

No, I can't stay mad at a zombie plague reference. Two voteys!
 
2020-02-23 11:36:31 AM  
1 vote:

Prof. Frink: GungFu: Just read an article from some news source on Facebook, and it mentions that in both Singapore and South Korea, there were increasing cases involving Christians. Turns out there has been infections from church congregations in both countries.

Thank you Jesus! You sick fark!

"He had a coron'a thorns"?


I blame the Kiss of Peace. Too much touchy-feely in the Christian Camp nowadays. Especially under the Beast 666.
 
2020-02-23 11:29:54 AM  
1 vote:

Hachitori: AAAAGGGGHHHH: I've been hearing that Trump is actually hoping for this pandemic to sweep across the US so he has an excuse to cancel the elections and declare marshal law. I'm wondering if I can make a surgical face mask out of tinfoil to match my hat.

[Fark user image 850x574]


He's too fat to kick a puppy. Although, the motion of the attempt plus his, uhm, "height" (lifts) would face plant him right on top of the puppy. And despite it happening on video in front of a idling helicopter, his supporters would insist that the puppy was actually a robot deployed by the Deep State to spy on his campaign and did he really have any choice? Huh, libs, did heeee??!!!!
 
2020-02-23 11:22:21 AM  
1 vote:

DoughyGuy: The irony is that the things that governments are supposed to do in these cases are exactly the actions that make people start to worry.


Yeah, "we're going to slaughter all who have symptoms or came in contact with them, as with any livestock" can upset certain segments of the populace for some reason.
 
2020-02-23 11:05:01 AM  
1 vote:
i.ytimg.comView Full Size


SHUT DOWN EVERYTHING

Everything? Even the hospitals?

DID I farkING STUTTER? SHUT. DOWN. EVERYTHING.
 
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