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(Straits Times)   Oh, nothing to worry about today ... South Korea just raised their alert to highest level as number of coronavirus cases jump sharply. Nothing to see, move along, everything is just fine   (straitstimes.com) divider line
    More: Sick, South Korea, Daegu, Gyeongsangbuk-do, Seoul, cases of coronavirus, Gyeongbu Line, south-eastern city of Daegu, Korean War  
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2572 clicks; posted to Main » on 23 Feb 2020 at 10:45 AM (18 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2020-02-23 2:15:49 PM  

AAAAGGGGHHHH: Kind of peculiar how this virus appeared at a time when populism worldwide is becoming too big for the elites to contain, isn't it?

Ask yourself something; how come no politicians or rich people have come down with this virus yet? Hmmmmmm.........


How would we know?
 
2020-02-23 2:18:46 PM  
FTFA:

A total of 17 South Korean Catholics in North Gyeongsang Province and their tour guide in Seoul who had gone on a pilgrimage to Israel earlier this month were confirmed to have been infected with the virus, KCDC  said.
Israeli and Palestinian authorities sought to allay fears of a potential local outbreak of the coronavirus after learning that South Korean pilgrims who had toured some of the holy land's most popular sites were later found to be carrying the virus.



Thoughts and prayers!!
 
2020-02-23 2:29:25 PM  
If the coronavirus kills a few billion people, that might help stop climate change.
 
2020-02-23 2:29:27 PM  
Meanwhile, actual scientists are telling people to STFU about "OMGAWD BIOWEAPONS" nonsense.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/​0​2/scientists-strongly-condemn-rumors-a​nd-conspiracy-theories-about-origin-co​ronavirus
 
2020-02-23 2:32:08 PM  

lolmao500: Harlee: [Fark user image 850x305]

And that graph is is China aint lying which they certainly are


Oh, I totally agree. But it is ONLY published set of figures out there (unless you want to rely on numbers pulled out of Glen Beck's inflamed asshole by a salivating Alex Jones with an eager assist from Jim Bakker). As such, it is necessary to use the old Soviet Samizdat method. Read the lies and suss out what is not being said. In this case, Excel is showing a declining cumulative percentage death curve which, interestingly, follows Excel's "canned" generic exponential trendline curve rather closely... almost as if someone might be fitting data to the curve.

My personal beliefs, without any hard farking evidence?
(1) The raw numbers are waaaay under-reported. I would add at least 2 zeros to everything. Maybe 3 or 4.
(2) The death percents are probably also being pushed down as much as possible, probably by the simple expedient of inflating the "recovered" raw numbers.
(3) But they can't push down too much, or it would be obvious, at least in retrospect, so "general downward trend of death percentage" is probably valid.

But those numbers are all we got right now. Viewed with a certain amount of skepticism, they are better than nothing. That's why I am posting them. it's up to the reader to exercise some common sense when interpreting them.
 
2020-02-23 2:41:55 PM  

Leader O'Cola: common sense is an oxymoron:

I'm usually the one obsessing over proper definitions and scientific accuracy, yet here I am defending dumbed-down reporting.  Weird.


My guess is that until 2 hours ago, you had no idea what logistic growth even was.



The entire curve is an S curve.  Yeah.  We know.  That's how diseases work because there aren't infinite people.  That isn't news.  Reporting that the growth will ultimately follow that curve doesn't tell us what is happening now.

Are we in a relatively flat section?  Are we in the section that's still ramping up?  Or are we in the section where it's starting to level off?

The news is reporting that we're still in the part of that curve where it looks more or less like an exponential and we haven't started leveling off yet.
 
2020-02-23 3:12:09 PM  

ski9600: lolmao500: deadsanta: Yawn. Call me when it hits 150,000 deaths annually, like "the flu" does.

All you need is 1 million infected and youll get there

I don't think a 2% death rate quite gets me there.

/I was told there would be maths


If there's a full outbreak, it's going to be a lot more than 1 million affected.

Up to 20 percent of the US gets the flu each year. If 50 million people got it and 2 percent died, that's 1 million deaths.
 
2020-02-23 3:25:30 PM  
The pedantic fark fights over news media using "exponential" in the colloquial sense in which 99+% of readers would understand it grows exponentially more tiresome.
 
2020-02-23 3:29:41 PM  

T Baggins: The pedantic fark fights over news media using "exponential" in the colloquial sense in which 99+% of readers would understand it grows exponentially more tiresome.


I have reached the asymptote of my outrage and have achieved some semblance of zen.
 
2020-02-23 4:06:07 PM  

T Baggins: The pedantic fark fights over news media using "exponential" in the colloquial sense in which 99+% of readers would understand it grows exponentially more tiresome.


The important part is you feel superior.
 
2020-02-23 4:45:59 PM  

hardinparamedic: T Baggins: The pedantic fark fights over news media using "exponential" in the colloquial sense in which 99+% of readers would understand it grows exponentially more tiresome.

The important part is you feel superior.


The important part is you feel superior saying "The important part is you feel superior".
 
2020-02-23 5:42:58 PM  

T Baggins: hardinparamedic: T Baggins: The pedantic fark fights over news media using "exponential" in the colloquial sense in which 99+% of readers would understand it grows exponentially more tiresome.

The important part is you feel superior.

The important part is you feel superior saying "The important part is you feel superior".


This is the most important exchange that has ever taken place.
 
2020-02-23 5:56:23 PM  
I notice that in these outbreak stories there's always a specific circumstance involved, and the dead are older people.

For instance, the way I read this story, there is no outbreak in South Korea. The outbreak is among members of a particular church. This church happens to be in South Korea, this could have happened anywhere.

If there were random people who were infected, and none of them had one central link to each other, THEN I'd call that an outbreak.

If there was a city in South Korea, and it had a couple of hundred newly detected people who were infected, and these people were from all walks of life and various types of backgrounds, and the dead consisted of 18-40 year olds, now we're seeing something scary. Until then meh.
 
2020-02-23 6:06:51 PM  

Birnone: If there were random people who were infected, and none of them had one central link to each other, THEN I'd call that an outbreak.


That's not how infectious diseases work.
 
2020-02-23 6:06:55 PM  
Get a suite, you guys.
 
2020-02-23 6:37:20 PM  

Harlee: Leader O'Cola: Harlee: [Fark user image 850x305]

so in December or January the Death "Rate" was > 100% ?

So you don't understand how exponential trendlines work in Excel, or know how to read graphs?


I understand perfectly well, which is why I'd never fit that data with such a stupid functional form .
 
2020-02-23 6:41:35 PM  

Leader O'Cola: Given that exponential growth goes to (almost) infinitely more people infected than were even alive when the epidemic started


Yes, that's right. The MSM mainstream media is trying to tell you that more people will die from COVID-19 than those who are alive, meaning that all dead people will be reanimated and the virus will make more people, just so it can kill them.

Stop being a pedant. This is bad, we all know it's bad, and unless Earth wins the virus mutation lottery, millions of people are going to die - not only from the disease, but as a result of overwhelmed healthcare systems and interruptions in commerce.

It's damned near impossible to overstate how bad this is likely to get. The people who are saying "durr it's not as bad as the flu" are either woefully ignorant or just not very bright.
 
2020-02-23 6:43:32 PM  

seanpg71: Leader O'Cola: common sense is an oxymoron:

I'm usually the one obsessing over proper definitions and scientific accuracy, yet here I am defending dumbed-down reporting.  Weird.


My guess is that until 2 hours ago, you had no idea what logistic growth even was.


The entire curve is an S curve.  Yeah.  We know.  That's how diseases work because there aren't infinite people.  That isn't news.  Reporting that the growth will ultimately follow that curve doesn't tell us what is happening now.

Are we in a relatively flat section?  Are we in the section that's still ramping up?  Or are we in the section where it's starting to level off?

The news is reporting that we're still in the part of that curve where it looks more or less like an exponential and we haven't started leveling off yet.


if only we understood the actual underlying mechanics of multi-node networked systems of coupled delay differential equation epidemic models.  Then we could fit parameters to the data, and predict what the long term outcome would be.  ... if only.   But instead, let's go with "it's going to infinity because the math is too hard otherwise!"   where's that stupid "today you have 1 husband/wife" graph?
 
2020-02-23 7:03:52 PM  
If anybody who is claiming COVID-19 is actually a bio-weapon wants a free month of Fark, please email me your PO box, and I will send you a free month of FARK. No kidding. To cash in your certificate, you have to undergo a good, hard cock/vulva-punch, at the time of your convenience. Stop it. Please, just STOP. It is like claiming in the dark ages the plague came from "evil spirits" or the devil. Just stop. Viruses don't work like that. That is all.
 
2020-02-23 7:35:11 PM  

Leader O'Cola: Harlee: Leader O'Cola: Harlee: [Fark user image 850x305]

so in December or January the Death "Rate" was > 100% ?

So you don't understand how exponential trendlines work in Excel, or know how to read graphs?

I understand perfectly well, which is why I'd never fit that data with such a stupid functional form .


Oh goody, a professional.

Show us what you got, Slick. I'm always open to learning new techniques.
 
2020-02-23 8:18:39 PM  

Leader O'Cola: seanpg71: Leader O'Cola: common sense is an oxymoron:

I'm usually the one obsessing over proper definitions and scientific accuracy, yet here I am defending dumbed-down reporting.  Weird.


My guess is that until 2 hours ago, you had no idea what logistic growth even was.


The entire curve is an S curve.  Yeah.  We know.  That's how diseases work because there aren't infinite people.  That isn't news.  Reporting that the growth will ultimately follow that curve doesn't tell us what is happening now.

Are we in a relatively flat section?  Are we in the section that's still ramping up?  Or are we in the section where it's starting to level off?

The news is reporting that we're still in the part of that curve where it looks more or less like an exponential and we haven't started leveling off yet.

if only we understood the actual underlying mechanics of multi-node networked systems of coupled delay differential equation epidemic models.  Then we could fit parameters to the data, and predict what the long term outcome would be.  ... if only.   But instead, let's go with "it's going to infinity because the math is too hard otherwise!"   where's that stupid "today you have 1 husband/wife" graph?


So do the math - since it's apparently possible and easy.  Tell us where this is going to start leveling out.
 
2020-02-23 8:18:58 PM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-02-23 8:34:19 PM  

Butterflew: If it's bad in South Korea then it's REALLY bad in North Korea, and since they don't tell their people anything, they probably don't even know what they're sick with and how contagious it is. Eek.


WE don't know how contagious it is.
??????????????
 
2020-02-23 9:03:06 PM  

common sense is an oxymoron: Leader O'Cola: oh boy, now we can hear more scary and stupid news-anchor people chanting "ooga booga! exponential increase!"

Funny you should mention that, now that the numbers from outside of China are becoming more clear.

[Fark user image 756x539]


"Log Plot?" as my old physics master used to say.
 
2020-02-23 10:24:30 PM  

Tillmaster: common sense is an oxymoron: Leader O'Cola: oh boy, now we can hear more scary and stupid news-anchor people chanting "ooga booga! exponential increase!"

Funny you should mention that, now that the numbers from outside of China are becoming more clear.

[Fark user image 756x539]

"Log Plot?" as my old physics master used to say.


for this data, it would show a non-linear response.
so, your point is what?
 
2020-02-23 10:38:43 PM  

Birnone: I notice that in these outbreak stories there's always a specific circumstance involved, and the dead are older people.

For instance, the way I read this story, there is no outbreak in South Korea. The outbreak is among members of a particular church. This church happens to be in South Korea, this could have happened anywhere.

If there were random people who were infected, and none of them had one central link to each other, THEN I'd call that an outbreak.

If there was a city in South Korea, and it had a couple of hundred newly detected people who were infected, and these people were from all walks of life and various types of backgrounds, and the dead consisted of 18-40 year olds, now we're seeing something scary. Until then meh.


Well, only half of the South Korea infections are linked to the church group, so clearly people are getting infected from elsewhere.
 
2020-02-24 12:51:19 AM  

Birnone: I notice that in these outbreak stories there's always a specific circumstance involved, and the dead are older people.

For instance, the way I read this story, there is no outbreak in South Korea. The outbreak is among members of a particular church. This church happens to be in South Korea, this could have happened anywhere.

If there were random people who were infected, and none of them had one central link to each other, THEN I'd call that an outbreak.

If there was a city in South Korea, and it had a couple of hundred newly detected people who were infected, and these people were from all walks of life and various types of backgrounds, and the dead consisted of 18-40 year olds, now we're seeing something scary. Until then meh.


The original spreader at the church said she did not travel outside of South Korea. What this means is someone came to South Korea who had the virus. Chances are she was not the only one that contracted the virus from this individual. Now that a good portion of the church is sick, you can bet that each of those members have passed it on to at least 2 people, and so on, and so on. So, yes it is an outbreak we are just at the beginning of it. Next week and the week following you are really going to start seeing numbers multiply of cases in SK and coincidentally any country those individuals are travelling to. America is likely to start seeing this shortly as well.
 
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