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(Straits Times)   Oh, nothing to worry about today ... South Korea just raised their alert to highest level as number of coronavirus cases jump sharply. Nothing to see, move along, everything is just fine   (straitstimes.com) divider line
    More: Sick, South Korea, Daegu, Gyeongsangbuk-do, Seoul, cases of coronavirus, Gyeongbu Line, south-eastern city of Daegu, Korean War  
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2572 clicks; posted to Main » on 23 Feb 2020 at 10:45 AM (19 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2020-02-23 12:02:21 PM  

DoughyGuy: The irony is that the things that governments are supposed to do in these cases are exactly the actions that make people start to worry.


Don't worry, this thread is full of experts to interpret these measured and careful responses and use that to freak out and tell everyone we're doomed.

And by "experts" I mean "they've read The Stand once, maybe even twice". The unabridged version too. But hey, a situation they have no expertise or control over is totally something they need to chime in with panic even though it does nothing and makes things worse.
 
2020-02-23 12:03:32 PM  

Leader O'Cola: oh boy, now we can hear more scary and stupid news-anchor people chanting "ooga booga! exponential increase!"


If the exponent is just above 1 it will increase - at 1.06 it will double the count every 12 transmissions
 
2020-02-23 12:03:41 PM  

Trik: Read that SK had a cultist super shedder or infecter.
Some doomsday cult guy infected a few dozen people and no telling how many they infected.


Im gonna need to read this in weekly world news before I believe it.
 
2020-02-23 12:05:52 PM  

hardinparamedic: Trik: Read that SK had a cultist super shedder or infecter.
Some doomsday cult guy infected a few dozen people and no telling how many they infected.

Im gonna need to read this in weekly world news before I believe it.


google "south korea super spreader"
 
2020-02-23 12:07:10 PM  

CRM119: Leader O'Cola: oh boy, now we can hear more scary and stupid news-anchor people chanting "ooga booga! exponential increase!"

If the exponent is just above 1 it will increase - at 1.06 it will double the count every 12 transmissions



GROSSLY oversimplifying here, but epidemics/pandemics are described by sets of simultaneous coupled delay differential logistic growth equations.

NOT exponential growth. there is a very big difference.
 
2020-02-23 12:07:11 PM  

Trik: hardinparamedic: Trik: Read that SK had a cultist super shedder or infecter.
Some doomsday cult guy infected a few dozen people and no telling how many they infected.

Im gonna need to read this in weekly world news before I believe it.

google "south korea super spreader"


What in the holy shiat?
 
2020-02-23 12:09:01 PM  

Leader O'Cola: oh boy, now we can hear more scary and stupid news-anchor people chanting "ooga booga! exponential increase!"


Funny you should mention that, now that the numbers from outside of China are becoming more clear.

Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-02-23 12:13:44 PM  

Trik: Read that SK had a cultist super shedder or infecter.
Some doomsday cult guy infected a few dozen people and no telling how many they infected.


That would be a good idea for a movie...
 
2020-02-23 12:20:27 PM  

lolmao500: Trik: Read that SK had a cultist super shedder or infecter.
Some doomsday cult guy infected a few dozen people and no telling how many they infected.

That would be a good idea for a movie...


I think the Simpsons did it.
 
2020-02-23 12:21:05 PM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-02-23 12:21:41 PM  

common sense is an oxymoron: Leader O'Cola: oh boy, now we can hear more scary and stupid news-anchor people chanting "ooga booga! exponential increase!"

Funny you should mention that, now that the numbers from outside of China are becoming more clear.

[Fark user image 756x539]


perform a regression fit for d(Y)/dt  =f(Y)

is the fit better with  f  as a 1st order or 2nd order polynomial?
 
2020-02-23 12:24:17 PM  
I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that maybe trading our souls for cheap plastic shiat from a country with a totalitarian government and a disregard for basic food sanitation procedures in its major economic hubs might not have been worth it.
 
2020-02-23 12:25:25 PM  

Marine1: I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that maybe trading our souls for cheap plastic shiat from a country with a totalitarian government and a disregard for basic food sanitation procedures in its major economic hubs might not have been worth it.


Yep but you still wont hear any politician advocating cutting all links to china until they change their ways.
 
2020-02-23 12:28:56 PM  

Marine1: I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that maybe trading our souls for cheap plastic shiat from a country with a totalitarian government and a disregard for basic food sanitation procedures in its major economic hubs might not have been worth it.


https://nypost.com/2020/02/22/dont-bu​y​-chinas-story-the-coronavirus-may-have​-leaked-from-a-lab/amp/

This was submitted and rejected by fark 17 hours ago. It came from a lab.

/No, not a dog.
 
2020-02-23 12:29:11 PM  

thornhill: brantgoose: thornhill: deadsanta: Yawn. Call me when it hits 150,000 deaths annually, like "the flu" does.

Well, it's way more transmittable than the flu. That's the concern.

But if it is not super fatal to most of the infected, transmission is sort of like vaccination--it will quickly disappear back into the gigantic of mass of "head colds" and "pneumonia" cases.

Evolution never sleeps, unlike The Donald in his Deep, Dark, Derp State.

Huh?

The death rate for the flu in the U.S. is usually 0.1%; COVID-19 in China is 2.3%.

Now of course you could argue that it's so high in China because they were slow to recognize the outbreak, have a less advance health care system, and frankly care less about people dying. But if COVID-19 broke out in the U.S. and the death rate was just 0.5%, that would be a lot of dead people.


A large part of what makes the Chinese mortality rate so high is that Wuhan/Hubei's mortality rate is high. The rate in other provinces is not nearly as terrible. What makes the difference is that Wuhan/Hubei's hospitals got completely overwhelmed, while the hospitals elsewhere are alert and have excess capacity.

It's a pretty interesting model for impact of the disease in high-health resource areas vs low resource areas. Those of us in advanced, developed nations would take some solace in the non-Hubei numbers because that models our health system better. Those in poor countries with poor health infrastructure should see Hubei's numbers and shudder.

Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-02-23 12:32:12 PM  

Leader O'Cola: common sense is an oxymoron: Leader O'Cola: oh boy, now we can hear more scary and stupid news-anchor people chanting "ooga booga! exponential increase!"

Funny you should mention that, now that the numbers from outside of China are becoming more clear.

[Fark user image 756x539]

perform a regression fit for d(Y)/dt  =f(Y)

is the fit better with  f  as a 1st order or 2nd order polynomial?


Is the discrepancy greater than the thickness of the data curve?  There are far worse cases than this of the media dumbing things down.
 
2020-02-23 12:32:56 PM  

Marine1: I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that maybe trading our souls for cheap plastic shiat from a country with a totalitarian government and a disregard for basic food sanitation procedures in its major economic hubs might not have been worth it.


I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that maybe Trumpist ideas such as protectionism is insanely idiotic.
 
2020-02-23 12:39:07 PM  
Kind of peculiar how this virus appeared at a time when populism worldwide is becoming too big for the elites to contain, isn't it?

Ask yourself something; how come no politicians or rich people have come down with this virus yet? Hmmmmmm.........
 
2020-02-23 12:41:06 PM  

common sense is an oxymoron: Leader O'Cola: common sense is an oxymoron: Leader O'Cola: oh boy, now we can hear more scary and stupid news-anchor people chanting "ooga booga! exponential increase!"

Funny you should mention that, now that the numbers from outside of China are becoming more clear.

[Fark user image 756x539]

perform a regression fit for d(Y)/dt  =f(Y)

is the fit better with  f  as a 1st order or 2nd order polynomial?

Is the discrepancy greater than the thickness of the data curve?  There are far worse cases than this of the media dumbing things down.


the media says "exponential growth"   for just about everything that goes up. in a non-linear response.
It is tiresome, and contributes significantly to stupidity in the mass populace.

Given that exponential growth goes to (almost) infinitely more people infected than were even alive when the epidemic started, and logistic growth does not ever go past more people infected than were alive when epidemic started,   I'd argue the difference is pretty appreciable.
 
2020-02-23 12:41:58 PM  

HairBolus: Butterflew: If it's bad in South Korea then it's REALLY bad in North Korea, and since they don't tell their people anything, they probably don't even know what they're sick with and how contagious it is. Eek.

I would have thought that N Korea which before the outbreak isolates itself and doesn't allow its citizens free travel, might have little opportunity to get infected.

but

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/02​/coronavirus-korea-lethal-china-200219​132141267.html
"There is a thriving black market network up on the North Korean/Chinese border," saidNicholas David Thomas, an associate professor at City University of Hong Kong and a specialist in health security in Asia. "And so all you need is one infected person to be smuggled in or smuggled out ... and either state wouldn't immediately know."


You'd have to be one sick fark to want to be smuggled in to Best Korea.
 
2020-02-23 12:43:43 PM  

cman: Marine1: I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that maybe trading our souls for cheap plastic shiat from a country with a totalitarian government and a disregard for basic food sanitation procedures in its major economic hubs might not have been worth it.

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that maybe Trumpist ideas such as protectionism is insanely idiotic.


There's nothing "Trumpist" about realizing that we need to find other countries to do business with if the Chinese don't improve.

This is the third time in two decades that I can remember off the top of my head that some deadly virus has come out of China.
 
2020-02-23 1:00:16 PM  
And then there's this article from the NY Post (https://nypost.com/2020/02/22/dont-b​uy​-chinas-story-the-coronavirus-may-have​-leaked-from-a-lab/ ) that contains these tidbits -

* China's Ministry of Science and Technology released a new directive, "Instructions on strengthening biosecurity management in microbiology labs that handle advanced viruses like the novel coronavirus." The only such lab is in Wuhan.

* It reports that Chinese researchers often resell animals used in experiments to street vendors when they're done with them.

Whatever the veracity of these claims, I'm hoping to be around to see the movies this crisis will spawn over the next couple decades.
 
2020-02-23 1:03:03 PM  

Leader O'Cola: common sense is an oxymoron: Leader O'Cola: common sense is an oxymoron: Leader O'Cola: oh boy, now we can hear more scary and stupid news-anchor people chanting "ooga booga! exponential increase!"

Funny you should mention that, now that the numbers from outside of China are becoming more clear.

[Fark user image 756x539]

perform a regression fit for d(Y)/dt  =f(Y)

is the fit better with  f  as a 1st order or 2nd order polynomial?

Is the discrepancy greater than the thickness of the data curve?  There are far worse cases than this of the media dumbing things down.

the media says "exponential growth"   for just about everything that goes up. in a non-linear response.
It is tiresome, and contributes significantly to stupidity in the mass populace.

Given that exponential growth goes to (almost) infinitely more people infected than were even alive when the epidemic started, and logistic growth does not ever go past more people infected than were alive when epidemic started,   I'd argue the difference is pretty appreciable.


What does that have to do with the current fit of the growth curve to an exponential function?
 
2020-02-23 1:03:06 PM  
Marine1:
There's nothing "Trumpist" about realizing that we need to find other countries to do business with if the Chinese don't improve.

Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-02-23 1:08:00 PM  

deadsanta: Yawn. Call me when it hits 150,000 deaths annually, like "the flu" does.


Patience, grasshopper, patience.

Also: I caught Worldometer with bad Case data on the 20th. Looked like it was just a district total, rather than the entire number. So they took down case history and said it would be back up once they fixed it. But the Death numbers look as "good" as they always have... though that percent decrease seems to be following the calculated curve suspiciously closely. But, since it is the only "verified" (i.e.: not repeated by your hysterical Uncle Bob from what he saw are RealTrueNewsYouBetchaComrade.com), here it is w/ latest.
 
2020-02-23 1:10:14 PM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-02-23 1:12:12 PM  

AAAAGGGGHHHH: Kind of peculiar how this virus appeared at a time when populism worldwide is becoming too big for the elites to contain, isn't it?


It's inconvenient for more than a few political ideologies, as pandemics and disasters tend to be.

Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-02-23 1:13:06 PM  

Toxophil: Marine1: I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that maybe trading our souls for cheap plastic shiat from a country with a totalitarian government and a disregard for basic food sanitation procedures in its major economic hubs might not have been worth it.

https://nypost.com/2020/02/22/dont-buy​-chinas-story-the-coronavirus-may-have​-leaked-from-a-lab/amp/

This was submitted and rejected by fark 17 hours ago. It came from a lab.

/No, not a dog.


It's not captain tripps, dude. It's also a terribly shiatty biowarfare agent.
 
2020-02-23 1:13:19 PM  

common sense is an oxymoron: Leader O'Cola: common sense is an oxymoron: Leader O'Cola: common sense is an oxymoron: Leader O'Cola: oh boy, now we can hear more scary and stupid news-anchor people chanting "ooga booga! exponential increase!"

Funny you should mention that, now that the numbers from outside of China are becoming more clear.

[Fark user image 756x539]

perform a regression fit for d(Y)/dt  =f(Y)

is the fit better with  f  as a 1st order or 2nd order polynomial?

Is the discrepancy greater than the thickness of the data curve?  There are far worse cases than this of the media dumbing things down.

the media says "exponential growth"   for just about everything that goes up. in a non-linear response.
It is tiresome, and contributes significantly to stupidity in the mass populace.

Given that exponential growth goes to (almost) infinitely more people infected than were even alive when the epidemic started, and logistic growth does not ever go past more people infected than were alive when epidemic started,   I'd argue the difference is pretty appreciable.

What does that have to do with the current fit of the growth curve to an exponential function?


dy/dt = k*y    exponential growth

dy/dt = k*y*(1-y/M)    logistic growth

one is bounded, one is not. one is physically realistic, one is not.

If you don't understand that regions of logistic growth "look" like the exponential curve, I can't help you.


/ no delay terms
// no coupled equations


if you want like the "grade school 101" of epidemic modeling
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compart​m​ental_models_in_epidemiology#The_SEIR_​model
 
2020-02-23 1:14:29 PM  

feanorn: China's Ministry of Science and Technology released a new directive, "Instructions on strengthening biosecurity management in microbiology labs that handle advanced viruses like the novel coronavirus." The only such lab is in Wuhan.


China has dozens of BSL-2 and BSL-3 labs. The Lab in Wuhan is the Country's only BSL-4 lab.
 
2020-02-23 1:16:49 PM  

Harlee: [Fark user image 850x305]


so in December or January the Death "Rate" was > 100% ?
 
2020-02-23 1:22:18 PM  

AAAAGGGGHHHH: Kind of peculiar how this virus appeared at a time when populism worldwide is becoming too big for the elites to contain, isn't it?

Ask yourself something; how come no politicians or rich people have come down with this virus yet? Hmmmmmm.........


Fark user imageView Full Size


And it's unisex!

Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-02-23 1:23:13 PM  

Chris Ween: "The more you tighten your grip, the more the disease will slip through your fingers.". Princess Leia...probably.


I thought it was, "Holding on to power is like being the creepy uncle who hugs his nieces and nephews too much; eventually they'll wiggle out of your grasp, or at the very least scream for help. Knowing your luck, you'll actually get prosecuted."
 
2020-02-23 1:23:45 PM  

Butterflew: If it's bad in South Korea then it's REALLY bad in North Korea, and since they don't tell their people anything, they probably don't even know what they're sick with and how contagious it is. Eek.


On the plus side, more food for the sentient ham that rules Best Korea
 
2020-02-23 1:25:06 PM  

Leader O'Cola: common sense is an oxymoron: Leader O'Cola: common sense is an oxymoron: Leader O'Cola: common sense is an oxymoron: Leader O'Cola: oh boy, now we can hear more scary and stupid news-anchor people chanting "ooga booga! exponential increase!"

Funny you should mention that, now that the numbers from outside of China are becoming more clear.

[Fark user image 756x539]

perform a regression fit for d(Y)/dt  =f(Y)

is the fit better with  f  as a 1st order or 2nd order polynomial?

Is the discrepancy greater than the thickness of the data curve?  There are far worse cases than this of the media dumbing things down.

the media says "exponential growth"   for just about everything that goes up. in a non-linear response.
It is tiresome, and contributes significantly to stupidity in the mass populace.

Given that exponential growth goes to (almost) infinitely more people infected than were even alive when the epidemic started, and logistic growth does not ever go past more people infected than were alive when epidemic started,   I'd argue the difference is pretty appreciable.

What does that have to do with the current fit of the growth curve to an exponential function?

dy/dt = k*y    exponential growth

dy/dt = k*y*(1-y/M)    logistic growth

one is bounded, one is not. one is physically realistic, one is not.

If you don't understand that regions of logistic growth "look" like the exponential curve, I can't help you.


/ no delay terms
// no coupled equations


if you want like the "grade school 101" of epidemic modeling
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compartm​ental_models_in_epidemiology#The_SEIR_​model


The observation that some regions of logistic growth look exponential is exactly my point.

I'm usually the one obsessing over proper definitions and scientific accuracy, yet here I am defending dumbed-down reporting.  Weird.
 
2020-02-23 1:26:05 PM  
Get a room, you two.
 
2020-02-23 1:27:35 PM  
common sense is an oxymoron:

I'm usually the one obsessing over proper definitions and scientific accuracy, yet here I am defending dumbed-down reporting.  Weird.


My guess is that until 2 hours ago, you had no idea what logistic growth even was.
 
2020-02-23 1:29:23 PM  

thornhill: deadsanta: Yawn. Call me when it hits 150,000 deaths annually, like "the flu" does.

Well, it's way more transmittable than the flu. That's the concern.


How many cases have there actually been, worldwide?  Are we past the seating capacity of the Big House yet?
 
2020-02-23 1:30:18 PM  

feanorn: And then there's this article from the NY Post (https://nypost.com/2020/02/22/dont-bu​y-chinas-story-the-coronavirus-may-hav​e-leaked-from-a-lab/ ) that contains these tidbits -

* China's Ministry of Science and Technology released a new directive, "Instructions on strengthening biosecurity management in microbiology labs that handle advanced viruses like the novel coronavirus." The only such lab is in Wuhan.

* It reports that Chinese researchers often resell animals used in experiments to street vendors when they're done with them.


If you doubt this, you dont know anything about China.
 
2020-02-23 1:30:37 PM  

Churchy LaFemme: Get a room, you two.


Gross.  Thats how you catch the cooties. Exponentionally..
 
2020-02-23 1:32:24 PM  

Chris Ween: Churchy LaFemme: Get a room, you two.

Gross.  Thats how you catch the cooties. Exponentionally Expeenentionally

*looks at user name*

FTFY
 
2020-02-23 1:32:34 PM  

Harlee: [Fark user image 850x305]


And that graph is is China aint lying which they certainly are
 
2020-02-23 1:39:28 PM  

lolmao500: feanorn: And then there's this article from the NY Post (https://nypost.com/2020/02/22/dont-bu​y-chinas-story-the-coronavirus-may-hav​e-leaked-from-a-lab/ ) that contains these tidbits -

* China's Ministry of Science and Technology released a new directive, "Instructions on strengthening biosecurity management in microbiology labs that handle advanced viruses like the novel coronavirus." The only such lab is in Wuhan.

* It reports that Chinese researchers often resell animals used in experiments to street vendors when they're done with them.

If you doubt this, you dont know anything about China.


I don't doubt it for a second. "Par for the course" is what came to mind when I read that.
 
2020-02-23 1:53:25 PM  

Leader O'Cola: common sense is an oxymoron:

I'm usually the one obsessing over proper definitions and scientific accuracy, yet here I am defending dumbed-down reporting.  Weird.


My guess is that until 2 hours ago, you had no idea what logistic growth even was.


Explain how (not) knowing what something is called has any effect on being able to compare its shape to that of something else.

Do you get this upset when someone refers to a ballistic trajectory as parabolic rather than the aboveground segment of an elliptical orbit?
 
2020-02-23 1:54:45 PM  

brantgoose: Prof. Frink: GungFu: Just read an article from some news source on Facebook, and it mentions that in both Singapore and South Korea, there were increasing cases involving Christians. Turns out there has been infections from church congregations in both countries.

Thank you Jesus! You sick fark!

"He had a coron'a thorns"?

I blame the Kiss of Peace. Too much touchy-feely in the Christian Camp nowadays. Especially under the Beast 666.


Shaking hands with everyone during the peace be with you bit, and sipping from the one cup during communion. Hopefully the places that do this have changed their ways for now.
 
2020-02-23 2:00:19 PM  

Hachitori: AAAAGGGGHHHH: I've been hearing that Trump is actually hoping for this pandemic to sweep across the US so he has an excuse to cancel the elections and declare marshal law. I'm wondering if I can make a surgical face mask out of tinfoil to match my hat.

[Fark user image image 850x574]


I love it when Dolt45 apologists out themselves.
 
2020-02-23 2:02:43 PM  

AAAAGGGGHHHH: Ask yourself something; how come no politicians or rich people have come down with this virus yet? Hmmmmmm.........


All the elites have already been replaced with replicants.  That was step 1 back in 2004.  Open your eyes, man.
 
2020-02-23 2:02:49 PM  

lolmao500: deadsanta: Yawn. Call me when it hits 150,000 deaths annually, like "the flu" does.

All you need is 1 million infected and youll get there


I don't think a 2% death rate quite gets me there.

/I was told there would be maths
 
2020-02-23 2:04:58 PM  

Butterflew: If it's bad in South Korea then it's REALLY bad in North Korea, and since they don't tell their people anything, they probably don't even know what they're sick with and how contagious it is. Eek.


Well sure, but their Army people are collecting the disease and creating a way to spread it around the USA.
 
2020-02-23 2:12:13 PM  

Leader O'Cola: Harlee: [Fark user image 850x305]

so in December or January the Death "Rate" was > 100% ?


So you don't understand how exponential trendlines work in Excel, or know how to read graphs?
 
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