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(Straits Times)   Oh, nothing to worry about today ... South Korea just raised their alert to highest level as number of coronavirus cases jump sharply. Nothing to see, move along, everything is just fine   (straitstimes.com) divider line
    More: Sick, South Korea, Daegu, Gyeongsangbuk-do, Seoul, cases of coronavirus, Gyeongbu Line, south-eastern city of Daegu, Korean War  
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2572 clicks; posted to Main » on 23 Feb 2020 at 10:45 AM (18 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



127 Comments     (+0 »)
 
View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest
 
2020-02-23 8:53:51 AM  
"The more you tighten your grip, the more the disease will slip through your fingers.". Princess Leia...probably.
 
2020-02-23 9:56:34 AM  
Subby, you're not going to distract us from the Epstein case.
 
2020-02-23 10:48:13 AM  
This is why Top Korea is Best Korea.
 
2020-02-23 10:49:46 AM  
media.giphy.comView Full Size
 
2020-02-23 10:49:56 AM  
Yawn. Call me when it hits 150,000 deaths annually, like "the flu" does.
 
2020-02-23 10:50:50 AM  

deadsanta: Yawn. Call me when it hits 150,000 deaths annually, like "the flu" does.


All you need is 1 million infected and youll get there
 
2020-02-23 10:52:38 AM  
oh boy, now we can hear more scary and stupid news-anchor people chanting "ooga booga! exponential increase!"
 
2020-02-23 10:55:46 AM  
The irony is that the things that governments are supposed to do in these cases are exactly the actions that make people start to worry.
 
2020-02-23 10:55:53 AM  
God is punishing them for stealing that undeserved Oscar.
 
2020-02-23 10:56:26 AM  

deadsanta: Yawn. Call me when it hits 150,000 deaths annually, like "the flu" does.


Exactly, not the flu but "the flu"

WAKE UP SHEEPLE
 
2020-02-23 10:57:15 AM  
If it's bad in South Korea then it's REALLY bad in North Korea, and since they don't tell their people anything, they probably don't even know what they're sick with and how contagious it is. Eek.
 
2020-02-23 10:59:16 AM  
I've been hearing that Trump is actually hoping for this pandemic to sweep across the US so he has an excuse to cancel the elections and declare marshal law. I'm wondering if I can make a surgical face mask out of tinfoil to match my hat.
 
2020-02-23 11:04:56 AM  
Between this and the new 27 days....

Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-02-23 11:05:01 AM  
i.ytimg.comView Full Size


SHUT DOWN EVERYTHING

Everything? Even the hospitals?

DID I farkING STUTTER? SHUT. DOWN. EVERYTHING.
 
ZAZ [TotalFark]
2020-02-23 11:07:55 AM  
What's the exchange rate between Korean alert levels and U.S. alert levels?
 
2020-02-23 11:07:59 AM  

deadsanta: the flu


DRINK!
 
2020-02-23 11:08:17 AM  

pounddawg: Between this and the new 27 days....

[Fark user image 512x383]


mediaproxy.salon.comView Full Size


"BORN IN SIN - COME ON IN" - Randall Flagg, the Stand Donald Trump, 2020.
 
2020-02-23 11:08:28 AM  

Chris Ween: "The more you tighten your grip, the more the disease will slip through your fingers.". Princess Leia...probably.


With ICN possibly soon off the off the table, my personally-relevant Leia reference would be "help us, Narita, you're my only hope... to get anywhere else in Asia without being blocked or quarantined."
 
2020-02-23 11:09:01 AM  

hardinparamedic: [i.ytimg.com image 480x360]

SHUT DOWN EVERYTHING

Everything? Even the hospitals?

DID I farkING STUTTER? SHUT. DOWN. EVERYTHING.


Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-02-23 11:10:53 AM  

LewDux: deadsanta: Yawn. Call me when it hits 150,000 deaths annually, like "the flu" does.

Exactly, not the flu but "the flu"

WAKE UP SHEEPLE


Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-02-23 11:17:24 AM  
Godspeed You! Black Emperor-East Hastings (28 Days Later Short Version)
Youtube jBw7k85uaDQ
 
2020-02-23 11:18:25 AM  

Butterflew: If it's bad in South Korea then it's REALLY bad in North Korea, and since they don't tell their people anything, they probably don't even know what they're sick with and how contagious it is. Eek.


I would have thought that N Korea which before the outbreak isolates itself and doesn't allow its citizens free travel, might have little opportunity to get infected.

but

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/0​2​/coronavirus-korea-lethal-china-200219​132141267.html
"There is a thriving black market network up on the North Korean/Chinese border," saidNicholas David Thomas, an associate professor at City University of Hong Kong and a specialist in health security in Asia. "And so all you need is one infected person to be smuggled in or smuggled out ... and either state wouldn't immediately know."
 
2020-02-23 11:18:55 AM  

AAAAGGGGHHHH: I've been hearing that Trump is actually hoping for this pandemic to sweep across the US so he has an excuse to cancel the elections and declare marshal law. I'm wondering if I can make a surgical face mask out of tinfoil to match my hat.


Fark user imageView Full Size

 
2020-02-23 11:21:29 AM  

DoughyGuy: The irony is that the things that governments are supposed to do in these cases are exactly the actions that make people start to worry.


Came here to say this.

We'd have a much bigger problem if they were ignoring the problem because they didn't want to spook the stock market - like Trump.
 
2020-02-23 11:22:21 AM  

DoughyGuy: The irony is that the things that governments are supposed to do in these cases are exactly the actions that make people start to worry.


Yeah, "we're going to slaughter all who have symptoms or came in contact with them, as with any livestock" can upset certain segments of the populace for some reason.
 
2020-02-23 11:24:40 AM  
First the Chinese and Wolrd economy, now the Cartoon industry. Will Covfefe-19 stop killing before it re-elects Trump?
 
2020-02-23 11:25:21 AM  

GungFu: Just read an article from some news source on Facebook, and it mentions that in both Singapore and South Korea, there were increasing cases involving Christians. Turns out there has been infections from church congregations in both countries.

Thank you Jesus! You sick fark!


"He had a coron'a thorns"?
 
2020-02-23 11:25:40 AM  

deadsanta: Yawn. Call me when it hits 150,000 deaths annually, like "the flu" does.


Well, it's way more transmittable than the flu. That's the concern.
 
2020-02-23 11:26:22 AM  

GungFu: Just read an article from some news source on Facebook, and it mentions that in both Singapore and South Korea, there were increasing cases involving Christians. Turns out there has been infections from church congregations in both countries.

Thank you Jesus! You sick fark!


Karma is finally hitting the religious people ruining the world. I hope it spreads to mecca, jerusalem, the vatican and in utah
 
2020-02-23 11:29:54 AM  

Hachitori: AAAAGGGGHHHH: I've been hearing that Trump is actually hoping for this pandemic to sweep across the US so he has an excuse to cancel the elections and declare marshal law. I'm wondering if I can make a surgical face mask out of tinfoil to match my hat.

[Fark user image 850x574]


He's too fat to kick a puppy. Although, the motion of the attempt plus his, uhm, "height" (lifts) would face plant him right on top of the puppy. And despite it happening on video in front of a idling helicopter, his supporters would insist that the puppy was actually a robot deployed by the Deep State to spy on his campaign and did he really have any choice? Huh, libs, did heeee??!!!!
 
2020-02-23 11:30:13 AM  

Hachitori: AAAAGGGGHHHH: I've been hearing that Trump is actually hoping for this pandemic to sweep across the US so he has an excuse to cancel the elections and declare marshal law. I'm wondering if I can make a surgical face mask out of tinfoil to match my hat.

[Fark user image 850x574]


Poor Donnie. How mean and unfair of people to report his words and deeds.
 
2020-02-23 11:31:27 AM  

ZAZ: What's the exchange rate between Korean alert levels and U.S. alert levels?


One ox and a pot of kimchi on the dollar.
 
2020-02-23 11:32:25 AM  
I found a way to equate The Trump to The Pandemic Plague.

I beg the pardon of the plague weasels, stoats, Pangolins, and ferret-faced Bat Boys.

/ And a tip o' the hat to Albert Camus, existentialist and novelist, author of La Peste (The Plague).

// Everybody is either a victim, an executioner or a doctor.

Don't be like Trump.

A Self-Appointed Doctor of the Dark Arts of playing the victim

while wrecking merry havoac with his best Bud, the Ax Man.

 
2020-02-23 11:34:58 AM  

thornhill: deadsanta: Yawn. Call me when it hits 150,000 deaths annually, like "the flu" does.

Well, it's way more transmittable than the flu. That's the concern.


But if it is not super fatal to most of the infected, transmission is sort of like vaccination--it will quickly disappear back into the gigantic of mass of "head colds" and "pneumonia" cases.

Evolution never sleeps, unlike The Donald in his Deep, Dark, Derp State.
 
2020-02-23 11:36:31 AM  

Prof. Frink: GungFu: Just read an article from some news source on Facebook, and it mentions that in both Singapore and South Korea, there were increasing cases involving Christians. Turns out there has been infections from church congregations in both countries.

Thank you Jesus! You sick fark!

"He had a coron'a thorns"?


I blame the Kiss of Peace. Too much touchy-feely in the Christian Camp nowadays. Especially under the Beast 666.
 
2020-02-23 11:37:27 AM  

jso2897: Hachitori: AAAAGGGGHHHH: I've been hearing that Trump is actually hoping for this pandemic to sweep across the US so he has an excuse to cancel the elections and declare marshal law. I'm wondering if I can make a surgical face mask out of tinfoil to match my hat.

[Fark user image 850x574]

Poor Donnie. How mean and unfair of people to report his words and deeds.


Sounds like a mad left wing conspiracy theory.

I am sending hopes and prayers that it isn't Trump's real plan.
 
2020-02-23 11:39:16 AM  

jim32rr: [Youtube-video https://www.youtube.com/embed/jBw7k85u​aDQ]


I just did the 28 Days joke in another thread. Get your own smart and funny votes!

No, I can't stay mad at a zombie plague reference. Two voteys!
 
2020-02-23 11:40:24 AM  

hardinparamedic: pounddawg: Between this and the new 27 days....

[Fark user image 512x383]

[mediaproxy.salon.com image 850x850]

"BORN IN SIN - COME ON IN" - Randall Flagg, the Stand Donald Trump, 2020.


Halleluah! Our Dark Lord His Shadow is Risen!
 
2020-02-23 11:42:43 AM  

jso2897: Hachitori: AAAAGGGGHHHH: I've been hearing that Trump is actually hoping for this pandemic to sweep across the US so he has an excuse to cancel the elections and declare marshal law. I'm wondering if I can make a surgical face mask out of tinfoil to match my hat.

[Fark user image 850x574]

Poor Donnie. How mean and unfair of people to report his words and deeds.


The problem is when you work Trump into everything, even when he's not related, people find it tiresome.  It actually become counterproductive because people who would listen and agree with you otherwise will tune you out when you have a legitimate point.  You essentially become the political version of Jehovah's Witnesses.
 
2020-02-23 11:43:54 AM  

Hachitori: AAAAGGGGHHHH: I've been hearing that Trump is actually hoping for this pandemic to sweep across the US so he has an excuse to cancel the elections and declare marshal law. I'm wondering if I can make a surgical face mask out of tinfoil to match my hat.

[Fark user image image 850x574]


But what if the cloud does look exactly like Donald Trump kicking a puppy?
 
2020-02-23 11:44:07 AM  

brantgoose: jso2897: Hachitori: AAAAGGGGHHHH: I've been hearing that Trump is actually hoping for this pandemic to sweep across the US so he has an excuse to cancel the elections and declare marshal law. I'm wondering if I can make a surgical face mask out of tinfoil to match my hat.

[Fark user image 850x574]

Poor Donnie. How mean and unfair of people to report his words and deeds.

Sounds like a mad left wing conspiracy theory.

I am sending hopes and prayers that it isn't Trump's real plan.


I was just responding to the cartoon, and it's assertion that the mean old media spends it's days falsely accusing poor Donnie of kicking puppies.
Which is not exactly the case, in truth and in fact.
 
2020-02-23 11:47:37 AM  

brantgoose: thornhill: deadsanta: Yawn. Call me when it hits 150,000 deaths annually, like "the flu" does.

Well, it's way more transmittable than the flu. That's the concern.

But if it is not super fatal to most of the infected, transmission is sort of like vaccination--it will quickly disappear back into the gigantic of mass of "head colds" and "pneumonia" cases.



Serious medical question: do we know if "got it once, got over it" confers any immunity against future exposure?
 
2020-02-23 11:48:51 AM  

brantgoose: thornhill: deadsanta: Yawn. Call me when it hits 150,000 deaths annually, like "the flu" does.

Well, it's way more transmittable than the flu. That's the concern.

But if it is not super fatal to most of the infected, transmission is sort of like vaccination--it will quickly disappear back into the gigantic of mass of "head colds" and "pneumonia" cases.

Evolution never sleeps, unlike The Donald in his Deep, Dark, Derp State.


Huh?

The death rate for the flu in the U.S. is usually 0.1%; COVID-19 in China is 2.3%.

Now of course you could argue that it's so high in China because they were slow to recognize the outbreak, have a less advance health care system, and frankly care less about people dying. But if COVID-19 broke out in the U.S. and the death rate was just 0.5%, that would be a lot of dead people.
 
2020-02-23 11:50:53 AM  
Read that SK had a cultist super shedder or infecter.
Some doomsday cult guy infected a few dozen people and no telling how many they infected.
 
2020-02-23 11:51:49 AM  
Governments that hide the real numbers are at fault for this.
 
2020-02-23 11:52:21 AM  

Mindlock: jso2897: Hachitori: AAAAGGGGHHHH: I've been hearing that Trump is actually hoping for this pandemic to sweep across the US so he has an excuse to cancel the elections and declare marshal law. I'm wondering if I can make a surgical face mask out of tinfoil to match my hat.

[Fark user image 850x574]

Poor Donnie. How mean and unfair of people to report his words and deeds.

The problem is when you work Trump into everything, even when he's not related, people find it tiresome.  It actually become counterproductive because people who would listen and agree with you otherwise will tune you out when you have a legitimate point.  You essentially become the political version of Jehovah's Witnesses.


I wasn't the one who brought him up. Also, it is appropriate:https://twitter.com/Chris​Lu44/status/1​229157181188169733

If Donnie doesn't want his words and actions coming back on him, he should choose them more wisely.
 
2020-02-23 11:53:59 AM  

DoughyGuy: The irony is that the things that governments are supposed to do in these cases are exactly the actions that make people start to worry.


That's why the Trump Aministration's policy is aimed at suppressing detection rather than prevention and containment.

Checkmate, liberalos.
 
2020-02-23 11:55:49 AM  

Chris Ween: "The more you tighten your grip, the more the disease will slip through your fingers.". Princess Leia...probably.


Or Princess Cruises.
 
2020-02-23 11:56:40 AM  

thornhill: and the death rate was just 0.5%, that would be a lot of dead people.


like 3 or 4 school shootings worth .
 
2020-02-23 11:57:16 AM  

AAAAGGGGHHHH: I've been hearing that Trump is actually hoping for this pandemic to sweep across the US so he has an excuse to cancel the elections and declare marshal law. I'm wondering if I can make a surgical face mask out of tinfoil to match my hat.


Yeah, he'd never try something that stupid...
 
2020-02-23 12:02:21 PM  

DoughyGuy: The irony is that the things that governments are supposed to do in these cases are exactly the actions that make people start to worry.


Don't worry, this thread is full of experts to interpret these measured and careful responses and use that to freak out and tell everyone we're doomed.

And by "experts" I mean "they've read The Stand once, maybe even twice". The unabridged version too. But hey, a situation they have no expertise or control over is totally something they need to chime in with panic even though it does nothing and makes things worse.
 
2020-02-23 12:03:32 PM  

Leader O'Cola: oh boy, now we can hear more scary and stupid news-anchor people chanting "ooga booga! exponential increase!"


If the exponent is just above 1 it will increase - at 1.06 it will double the count every 12 transmissions
 
2020-02-23 12:03:41 PM  

Trik: Read that SK had a cultist super shedder or infecter.
Some doomsday cult guy infected a few dozen people and no telling how many they infected.


Im gonna need to read this in weekly world news before I believe it.
 
2020-02-23 12:05:52 PM  

hardinparamedic: Trik: Read that SK had a cultist super shedder or infecter.
Some doomsday cult guy infected a few dozen people and no telling how many they infected.

Im gonna need to read this in weekly world news before I believe it.


google "south korea super spreader"
 
2020-02-23 12:07:10 PM  

CRM119: Leader O'Cola: oh boy, now we can hear more scary and stupid news-anchor people chanting "ooga booga! exponential increase!"

If the exponent is just above 1 it will increase - at 1.06 it will double the count every 12 transmissions



GROSSLY oversimplifying here, but epidemics/pandemics are described by sets of simultaneous coupled delay differential logistic growth equations.

NOT exponential growth. there is a very big difference.
 
2020-02-23 12:07:11 PM  

Trik: hardinparamedic: Trik: Read that SK had a cultist super shedder or infecter.
Some doomsday cult guy infected a few dozen people and no telling how many they infected.

Im gonna need to read this in weekly world news before I believe it.

google "south korea super spreader"


What in the holy shiat?
 
2020-02-23 12:09:01 PM  

Leader O'Cola: oh boy, now we can hear more scary and stupid news-anchor people chanting "ooga booga! exponential increase!"


Funny you should mention that, now that the numbers from outside of China are becoming more clear.

Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-02-23 12:13:44 PM  

Trik: Read that SK had a cultist super shedder or infecter.
Some doomsday cult guy infected a few dozen people and no telling how many they infected.


That would be a good idea for a movie...
 
2020-02-23 12:20:27 PM  

lolmao500: Trik: Read that SK had a cultist super shedder or infecter.
Some doomsday cult guy infected a few dozen people and no telling how many they infected.

That would be a good idea for a movie...


I think the Simpsons did it.
 
2020-02-23 12:21:05 PM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-02-23 12:21:41 PM  

common sense is an oxymoron: Leader O'Cola: oh boy, now we can hear more scary and stupid news-anchor people chanting "ooga booga! exponential increase!"

Funny you should mention that, now that the numbers from outside of China are becoming more clear.

[Fark user image 756x539]


perform a regression fit for d(Y)/dt  =f(Y)

is the fit better with  f  as a 1st order or 2nd order polynomial?
 
2020-02-23 12:24:17 PM  
I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that maybe trading our souls for cheap plastic shiat from a country with a totalitarian government and a disregard for basic food sanitation procedures in its major economic hubs might not have been worth it.
 
2020-02-23 12:25:25 PM  

Marine1: I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that maybe trading our souls for cheap plastic shiat from a country with a totalitarian government and a disregard for basic food sanitation procedures in its major economic hubs might not have been worth it.


Yep but you still wont hear any politician advocating cutting all links to china until they change their ways.
 
2020-02-23 12:28:56 PM  

Marine1: I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that maybe trading our souls for cheap plastic shiat from a country with a totalitarian government and a disregard for basic food sanitation procedures in its major economic hubs might not have been worth it.


https://nypost.com/2020/02/22/dont-bu​y​-chinas-story-the-coronavirus-may-have​-leaked-from-a-lab/amp/

This was submitted and rejected by fark 17 hours ago. It came from a lab.

/No, not a dog.
 
2020-02-23 12:29:11 PM  

thornhill: brantgoose: thornhill: deadsanta: Yawn. Call me when it hits 150,000 deaths annually, like "the flu" does.

Well, it's way more transmittable than the flu. That's the concern.

But if it is not super fatal to most of the infected, transmission is sort of like vaccination--it will quickly disappear back into the gigantic of mass of "head colds" and "pneumonia" cases.

Evolution never sleeps, unlike The Donald in his Deep, Dark, Derp State.

Huh?

The death rate for the flu in the U.S. is usually 0.1%; COVID-19 in China is 2.3%.

Now of course you could argue that it's so high in China because they were slow to recognize the outbreak, have a less advance health care system, and frankly care less about people dying. But if COVID-19 broke out in the U.S. and the death rate was just 0.5%, that would be a lot of dead people.


A large part of what makes the Chinese mortality rate so high is that Wuhan/Hubei's mortality rate is high. The rate in other provinces is not nearly as terrible. What makes the difference is that Wuhan/Hubei's hospitals got completely overwhelmed, while the hospitals elsewhere are alert and have excess capacity.

It's a pretty interesting model for impact of the disease in high-health resource areas vs low resource areas. Those of us in advanced, developed nations would take some solace in the non-Hubei numbers because that models our health system better. Those in poor countries with poor health infrastructure should see Hubei's numbers and shudder.

Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-02-23 12:32:12 PM  

Leader O'Cola: common sense is an oxymoron: Leader O'Cola: oh boy, now we can hear more scary and stupid news-anchor people chanting "ooga booga! exponential increase!"

Funny you should mention that, now that the numbers from outside of China are becoming more clear.

[Fark user image 756x539]

perform a regression fit for d(Y)/dt  =f(Y)

is the fit better with  f  as a 1st order or 2nd order polynomial?


Is the discrepancy greater than the thickness of the data curve?  There are far worse cases than this of the media dumbing things down.
 
2020-02-23 12:32:56 PM  

Marine1: I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that maybe trading our souls for cheap plastic shiat from a country with a totalitarian government and a disregard for basic food sanitation procedures in its major economic hubs might not have been worth it.


I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that maybe Trumpist ideas such as protectionism is insanely idiotic.
 
2020-02-23 12:39:07 PM  
Kind of peculiar how this virus appeared at a time when populism worldwide is becoming too big for the elites to contain, isn't it?

Ask yourself something; how come no politicians or rich people have come down with this virus yet? Hmmmmmm.........
 
2020-02-23 12:41:06 PM  

common sense is an oxymoron: Leader O'Cola: common sense is an oxymoron: Leader O'Cola: oh boy, now we can hear more scary and stupid news-anchor people chanting "ooga booga! exponential increase!"

Funny you should mention that, now that the numbers from outside of China are becoming more clear.

[Fark user image 756x539]

perform a regression fit for d(Y)/dt  =f(Y)

is the fit better with  f  as a 1st order or 2nd order polynomial?

Is the discrepancy greater than the thickness of the data curve?  There are far worse cases than this of the media dumbing things down.


the media says "exponential growth"   for just about everything that goes up. in a non-linear response.
It is tiresome, and contributes significantly to stupidity in the mass populace.

Given that exponential growth goes to (almost) infinitely more people infected than were even alive when the epidemic started, and logistic growth does not ever go past more people infected than were alive when epidemic started,   I'd argue the difference is pretty appreciable.
 
2020-02-23 12:41:58 PM  

HairBolus: Butterflew: If it's bad in South Korea then it's REALLY bad in North Korea, and since they don't tell their people anything, they probably don't even know what they're sick with and how contagious it is. Eek.

I would have thought that N Korea which before the outbreak isolates itself and doesn't allow its citizens free travel, might have little opportunity to get infected.

but

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/02​/coronavirus-korea-lethal-china-200219​132141267.html
"There is a thriving black market network up on the North Korean/Chinese border," saidNicholas David Thomas, an associate professor at City University of Hong Kong and a specialist in health security in Asia. "And so all you need is one infected person to be smuggled in or smuggled out ... and either state wouldn't immediately know."


You'd have to be one sick fark to want to be smuggled in to Best Korea.
 
2020-02-23 12:43:43 PM  

cman: Marine1: I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that maybe trading our souls for cheap plastic shiat from a country with a totalitarian government and a disregard for basic food sanitation procedures in its major economic hubs might not have been worth it.

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that maybe Trumpist ideas such as protectionism is insanely idiotic.


There's nothing "Trumpist" about realizing that we need to find other countries to do business with if the Chinese don't improve.

This is the third time in two decades that I can remember off the top of my head that some deadly virus has come out of China.
 
2020-02-23 1:00:16 PM  
And then there's this article from the NY Post (https://nypost.com/2020/02/22/dont-b​uy​-chinas-story-the-coronavirus-may-have​-leaked-from-a-lab/ ) that contains these tidbits -

* China's Ministry of Science and Technology released a new directive, "Instructions on strengthening biosecurity management in microbiology labs that handle advanced viruses like the novel coronavirus." The only such lab is in Wuhan.

* It reports that Chinese researchers often resell animals used in experiments to street vendors when they're done with them.

Whatever the veracity of these claims, I'm hoping to be around to see the movies this crisis will spawn over the next couple decades.
 
2020-02-23 1:03:03 PM  

Leader O'Cola: common sense is an oxymoron: Leader O'Cola: common sense is an oxymoron: Leader O'Cola: oh boy, now we can hear more scary and stupid news-anchor people chanting "ooga booga! exponential increase!"

Funny you should mention that, now that the numbers from outside of China are becoming more clear.

[Fark user image 756x539]

perform a regression fit for d(Y)/dt  =f(Y)

is the fit better with  f  as a 1st order or 2nd order polynomial?

Is the discrepancy greater than the thickness of the data curve?  There are far worse cases than this of the media dumbing things down.

the media says "exponential growth"   for just about everything that goes up. in a non-linear response.
It is tiresome, and contributes significantly to stupidity in the mass populace.

Given that exponential growth goes to (almost) infinitely more people infected than were even alive when the epidemic started, and logistic growth does not ever go past more people infected than were alive when epidemic started,   I'd argue the difference is pretty appreciable.


What does that have to do with the current fit of the growth curve to an exponential function?
 
2020-02-23 1:03:06 PM  
Marine1:
There's nothing "Trumpist" about realizing that we need to find other countries to do business with if the Chinese don't improve.

Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-02-23 1:08:00 PM  

deadsanta: Yawn. Call me when it hits 150,000 deaths annually, like "the flu" does.


Patience, grasshopper, patience.

Also: I caught Worldometer with bad Case data on the 20th. Looked like it was just a district total, rather than the entire number. So they took down case history and said it would be back up once they fixed it. But the Death numbers look as "good" as they always have... though that percent decrease seems to be following the calculated curve suspiciously closely. But, since it is the only "verified" (i.e.: not repeated by your hysterical Uncle Bob from what he saw are RealTrueNewsYouBetchaComrade.com), here it is w/ latest.
 
2020-02-23 1:10:14 PM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-02-23 1:12:12 PM  

AAAAGGGGHHHH: Kind of peculiar how this virus appeared at a time when populism worldwide is becoming too big for the elites to contain, isn't it?


It's inconvenient for more than a few political ideologies, as pandemics and disasters tend to be.

Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-02-23 1:13:06 PM  

Toxophil: Marine1: I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that maybe trading our souls for cheap plastic shiat from a country with a totalitarian government and a disregard for basic food sanitation procedures in its major economic hubs might not have been worth it.

https://nypost.com/2020/02/22/dont-buy​-chinas-story-the-coronavirus-may-have​-leaked-from-a-lab/amp/

This was submitted and rejected by fark 17 hours ago. It came from a lab.

/No, not a dog.


It's not captain tripps, dude. It's also a terribly shiatty biowarfare agent.
 
2020-02-23 1:13:19 PM  

common sense is an oxymoron: Leader O'Cola: common sense is an oxymoron: Leader O'Cola: common sense is an oxymoron: Leader O'Cola: oh boy, now we can hear more scary and stupid news-anchor people chanting "ooga booga! exponential increase!"

Funny you should mention that, now that the numbers from outside of China are becoming more clear.

[Fark user image 756x539]

perform a regression fit for d(Y)/dt  =f(Y)

is the fit better with  f  as a 1st order or 2nd order polynomial?

Is the discrepancy greater than the thickness of the data curve?  There are far worse cases than this of the media dumbing things down.

the media says "exponential growth"   for just about everything that goes up. in a non-linear response.
It is tiresome, and contributes significantly to stupidity in the mass populace.

Given that exponential growth goes to (almost) infinitely more people infected than were even alive when the epidemic started, and logistic growth does not ever go past more people infected than were alive when epidemic started,   I'd argue the difference is pretty appreciable.

What does that have to do with the current fit of the growth curve to an exponential function?


dy/dt = k*y    exponential growth

dy/dt = k*y*(1-y/M)    logistic growth

one is bounded, one is not. one is physically realistic, one is not.

If you don't understand that regions of logistic growth "look" like the exponential curve, I can't help you.


/ no delay terms
// no coupled equations


if you want like the "grade school 101" of epidemic modeling
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compart​m​ental_models_in_epidemiology#The_SEIR_​model
 
2020-02-23 1:14:29 PM  

feanorn: China's Ministry of Science and Technology released a new directive, "Instructions on strengthening biosecurity management in microbiology labs that handle advanced viruses like the novel coronavirus." The only such lab is in Wuhan.


China has dozens of BSL-2 and BSL-3 labs. The Lab in Wuhan is the Country's only BSL-4 lab.
 
2020-02-23 1:16:49 PM  

Harlee: [Fark user image 850x305]


so in December or January the Death "Rate" was > 100% ?
 
2020-02-23 1:22:18 PM  

AAAAGGGGHHHH: Kind of peculiar how this virus appeared at a time when populism worldwide is becoming too big for the elites to contain, isn't it?

Ask yourself something; how come no politicians or rich people have come down with this virus yet? Hmmmmmm.........


Fark user imageView Full Size


And it's unisex!

Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-02-23 1:23:13 PM  

Chris Ween: "The more you tighten your grip, the more the disease will slip through your fingers.". Princess Leia...probably.


I thought it was, "Holding on to power is like being the creepy uncle who hugs his nieces and nephews too much; eventually they'll wiggle out of your grasp, or at the very least scream for help. Knowing your luck, you'll actually get prosecuted."
 
2020-02-23 1:23:45 PM  

Butterflew: If it's bad in South Korea then it's REALLY bad in North Korea, and since they don't tell their people anything, they probably don't even know what they're sick with and how contagious it is. Eek.


On the plus side, more food for the sentient ham that rules Best Korea
 
2020-02-23 1:25:06 PM  

Leader O'Cola: common sense is an oxymoron: Leader O'Cola: common sense is an oxymoron: Leader O'Cola: common sense is an oxymoron: Leader O'Cola: oh boy, now we can hear more scary and stupid news-anchor people chanting "ooga booga! exponential increase!"

Funny you should mention that, now that the numbers from outside of China are becoming more clear.

[Fark user image 756x539]

perform a regression fit for d(Y)/dt  =f(Y)

is the fit better with  f  as a 1st order or 2nd order polynomial?

Is the discrepancy greater than the thickness of the data curve?  There are far worse cases than this of the media dumbing things down.

the media says "exponential growth"   for just about everything that goes up. in a non-linear response.
It is tiresome, and contributes significantly to stupidity in the mass populace.

Given that exponential growth goes to (almost) infinitely more people infected than were even alive when the epidemic started, and logistic growth does not ever go past more people infected than were alive when epidemic started,   I'd argue the difference is pretty appreciable.

What does that have to do with the current fit of the growth curve to an exponential function?

dy/dt = k*y    exponential growth

dy/dt = k*y*(1-y/M)    logistic growth

one is bounded, one is not. one is physically realistic, one is not.

If you don't understand that regions of logistic growth "look" like the exponential curve, I can't help you.


/ no delay terms
// no coupled equations


if you want like the "grade school 101" of epidemic modeling
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compartm​ental_models_in_epidemiology#The_SEIR_​model


The observation that some regions of logistic growth look exponential is exactly my point.

I'm usually the one obsessing over proper definitions and scientific accuracy, yet here I am defending dumbed-down reporting.  Weird.
 
2020-02-23 1:26:05 PM  
Get a room, you two.
 
2020-02-23 1:27:35 PM  
common sense is an oxymoron:

I'm usually the one obsessing over proper definitions and scientific accuracy, yet here I am defending dumbed-down reporting.  Weird.


My guess is that until 2 hours ago, you had no idea what logistic growth even was.
 
2020-02-23 1:29:23 PM  

thornhill: deadsanta: Yawn. Call me when it hits 150,000 deaths annually, like "the flu" does.

Well, it's way more transmittable than the flu. That's the concern.


How many cases have there actually been, worldwide?  Are we past the seating capacity of the Big House yet?
 
2020-02-23 1:30:18 PM  

feanorn: And then there's this article from the NY Post (https://nypost.com/2020/02/22/dont-bu​y-chinas-story-the-coronavirus-may-hav​e-leaked-from-a-lab/ ) that contains these tidbits -

* China's Ministry of Science and Technology released a new directive, "Instructions on strengthening biosecurity management in microbiology labs that handle advanced viruses like the novel coronavirus." The only such lab is in Wuhan.

* It reports that Chinese researchers often resell animals used in experiments to street vendors when they're done with them.


If you doubt this, you dont know anything about China.
 
2020-02-23 1:30:37 PM  

Churchy LaFemme: Get a room, you two.


Gross.  Thats how you catch the cooties. Exponentionally..
 
2020-02-23 1:32:24 PM  

Chris Ween: Churchy LaFemme: Get a room, you two.

Gross.  Thats how you catch the cooties. Exponentionally Expeenentionally

*looks at user name*

FTFY
 
2020-02-23 1:32:34 PM  

Harlee: [Fark user image 850x305]


And that graph is is China aint lying which they certainly are
 
2020-02-23 1:39:28 PM  

lolmao500: feanorn: And then there's this article from the NY Post (https://nypost.com/2020/02/22/dont-bu​y-chinas-story-the-coronavirus-may-hav​e-leaked-from-a-lab/ ) that contains these tidbits -

* China's Ministry of Science and Technology released a new directive, "Instructions on strengthening biosecurity management in microbiology labs that handle advanced viruses like the novel coronavirus." The only such lab is in Wuhan.

* It reports that Chinese researchers often resell animals used in experiments to street vendors when they're done with them.

If you doubt this, you dont know anything about China.


I don't doubt it for a second. "Par for the course" is what came to mind when I read that.
 
2020-02-23 1:53:25 PM  

Leader O'Cola: common sense is an oxymoron:

I'm usually the one obsessing over proper definitions and scientific accuracy, yet here I am defending dumbed-down reporting.  Weird.


My guess is that until 2 hours ago, you had no idea what logistic growth even was.


Explain how (not) knowing what something is called has any effect on being able to compare its shape to that of something else.

Do you get this upset when someone refers to a ballistic trajectory as parabolic rather than the aboveground segment of an elliptical orbit?
 
2020-02-23 1:54:45 PM  

brantgoose: Prof. Frink: GungFu: Just read an article from some news source on Facebook, and it mentions that in both Singapore and South Korea, there were increasing cases involving Christians. Turns out there has been infections from church congregations in both countries.

Thank you Jesus! You sick fark!

"He had a coron'a thorns"?

I blame the Kiss of Peace. Too much touchy-feely in the Christian Camp nowadays. Especially under the Beast 666.


Shaking hands with everyone during the peace be with you bit, and sipping from the one cup during communion. Hopefully the places that do this have changed their ways for now.
 
2020-02-23 2:00:19 PM  

Hachitori: AAAAGGGGHHHH: I've been hearing that Trump is actually hoping for this pandemic to sweep across the US so he has an excuse to cancel the elections and declare marshal law. I'm wondering if I can make a surgical face mask out of tinfoil to match my hat.

[Fark user image image 850x574]


I love it when Dolt45 apologists out themselves.
 
2020-02-23 2:02:43 PM  

AAAAGGGGHHHH: Ask yourself something; how come no politicians or rich people have come down with this virus yet? Hmmmmmm.........


All the elites have already been replaced with replicants.  That was step 1 back in 2004.  Open your eyes, man.
 
2020-02-23 2:02:49 PM  

lolmao500: deadsanta: Yawn. Call me when it hits 150,000 deaths annually, like "the flu" does.

All you need is 1 million infected and youll get there


I don't think a 2% death rate quite gets me there.

/I was told there would be maths
 
2020-02-23 2:04:58 PM  

Butterflew: If it's bad in South Korea then it's REALLY bad in North Korea, and since they don't tell their people anything, they probably don't even know what they're sick with and how contagious it is. Eek.


Well sure, but their Army people are collecting the disease and creating a way to spread it around the USA.
 
2020-02-23 2:12:13 PM  

Leader O'Cola: Harlee: [Fark user image 850x305]

so in December or January the Death "Rate" was > 100% ?


So you don't understand how exponential trendlines work in Excel, or know how to read graphs?
 
2020-02-23 2:15:49 PM  

AAAAGGGGHHHH: Kind of peculiar how this virus appeared at a time when populism worldwide is becoming too big for the elites to contain, isn't it?

Ask yourself something; how come no politicians or rich people have come down with this virus yet? Hmmmmmm.........


How would we know?
 
2020-02-23 2:18:46 PM  
FTFA:

A total of 17 South Korean Catholics in North Gyeongsang Province and their tour guide in Seoul who had gone on a pilgrimage to Israel earlier this month were confirmed to have been infected with the virus, KCDC  said.
Israeli and Palestinian authorities sought to allay fears of a potential local outbreak of the coronavirus after learning that South Korean pilgrims who had toured some of the holy land's most popular sites were later found to be carrying the virus.



Thoughts and prayers!!
 
2020-02-23 2:29:25 PM  
If the coronavirus kills a few billion people, that might help stop climate change.
 
2020-02-23 2:29:27 PM  
Meanwhile, actual scientists are telling people to STFU about "OMGAWD BIOWEAPONS" nonsense.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/​0​2/scientists-strongly-condemn-rumors-a​nd-conspiracy-theories-about-origin-co​ronavirus
 
2020-02-23 2:32:08 PM  

lolmao500: Harlee: [Fark user image 850x305]

And that graph is is China aint lying which they certainly are


Oh, I totally agree. But it is ONLY published set of figures out there (unless you want to rely on numbers pulled out of Glen Beck's inflamed asshole by a salivating Alex Jones with an eager assist from Jim Bakker). As such, it is necessary to use the old Soviet Samizdat method. Read the lies and suss out what is not being said. In this case, Excel is showing a declining cumulative percentage death curve which, interestingly, follows Excel's "canned" generic exponential trendline curve rather closely... almost as if someone might be fitting data to the curve.

My personal beliefs, without any hard farking evidence?
(1) The raw numbers are waaaay under-reported. I would add at least 2 zeros to everything. Maybe 3 or 4.
(2) The death percents are probably also being pushed down as much as possible, probably by the simple expedient of inflating the "recovered" raw numbers.
(3) But they can't push down too much, or it would be obvious, at least in retrospect, so "general downward trend of death percentage" is probably valid.

But those numbers are all we got right now. Viewed with a certain amount of skepticism, they are better than nothing. That's why I am posting them. it's up to the reader to exercise some common sense when interpreting them.
 
2020-02-23 2:41:55 PM  

Leader O'Cola: common sense is an oxymoron:

I'm usually the one obsessing over proper definitions and scientific accuracy, yet here I am defending dumbed-down reporting.  Weird.


My guess is that until 2 hours ago, you had no idea what logistic growth even was.



The entire curve is an S curve.  Yeah.  We know.  That's how diseases work because there aren't infinite people.  That isn't news.  Reporting that the growth will ultimately follow that curve doesn't tell us what is happening now.

Are we in a relatively flat section?  Are we in the section that's still ramping up?  Or are we in the section where it's starting to level off?

The news is reporting that we're still in the part of that curve where it looks more or less like an exponential and we haven't started leveling off yet.
 
2020-02-23 3:12:09 PM  

ski9600: lolmao500: deadsanta: Yawn. Call me when it hits 150,000 deaths annually, like "the flu" does.

All you need is 1 million infected and youll get there

I don't think a 2% death rate quite gets me there.

/I was told there would be maths


If there's a full outbreak, it's going to be a lot more than 1 million affected.

Up to 20 percent of the US gets the flu each year. If 50 million people got it and 2 percent died, that's 1 million deaths.
 
2020-02-23 3:25:30 PM  
The pedantic fark fights over news media using "exponential" in the colloquial sense in which 99+% of readers would understand it grows exponentially more tiresome.
 
2020-02-23 3:29:41 PM  

T Baggins: The pedantic fark fights over news media using "exponential" in the colloquial sense in which 99+% of readers would understand it grows exponentially more tiresome.


I have reached the asymptote of my outrage and have achieved some semblance of zen.
 
2020-02-23 4:06:07 PM  

T Baggins: The pedantic fark fights over news media using "exponential" in the colloquial sense in which 99+% of readers would understand it grows exponentially more tiresome.


The important part is you feel superior.
 
2020-02-23 4:45:59 PM  

hardinparamedic: T Baggins: The pedantic fark fights over news media using "exponential" in the colloquial sense in which 99+% of readers would understand it grows exponentially more tiresome.

The important part is you feel superior.


The important part is you feel superior saying "The important part is you feel superior".
 
2020-02-23 5:42:58 PM  

T Baggins: hardinparamedic: T Baggins: The pedantic fark fights over news media using "exponential" in the colloquial sense in which 99+% of readers would understand it grows exponentially more tiresome.

The important part is you feel superior.

The important part is you feel superior saying "The important part is you feel superior".


This is the most important exchange that has ever taken place.
 
2020-02-23 5:56:23 PM  
I notice that in these outbreak stories there's always a specific circumstance involved, and the dead are older people.

For instance, the way I read this story, there is no outbreak in South Korea. The outbreak is among members of a particular church. This church happens to be in South Korea, this could have happened anywhere.

If there were random people who were infected, and none of them had one central link to each other, THEN I'd call that an outbreak.

If there was a city in South Korea, and it had a couple of hundred newly detected people who were infected, and these people were from all walks of life and various types of backgrounds, and the dead consisted of 18-40 year olds, now we're seeing something scary. Until then meh.
 
2020-02-23 6:06:51 PM  

Birnone: If there were random people who were infected, and none of them had one central link to each other, THEN I'd call that an outbreak.


That's not how infectious diseases work.
 
2020-02-23 6:06:55 PM  
Get a suite, you guys.
 
2020-02-23 6:37:20 PM  

Harlee: Leader O'Cola: Harlee: [Fark user image 850x305]

so in December or January the Death "Rate" was > 100% ?

So you don't understand how exponential trendlines work in Excel, or know how to read graphs?


I understand perfectly well, which is why I'd never fit that data with such a stupid functional form .
 
2020-02-23 6:41:35 PM  

Leader O'Cola: Given that exponential growth goes to (almost) infinitely more people infected than were even alive when the epidemic started


Yes, that's right. The MSM mainstream media is trying to tell you that more people will die from COVID-19 than those who are alive, meaning that all dead people will be reanimated and the virus will make more people, just so it can kill them.

Stop being a pedant. This is bad, we all know it's bad, and unless Earth wins the virus mutation lottery, millions of people are going to die - not only from the disease, but as a result of overwhelmed healthcare systems and interruptions in commerce.

It's damned near impossible to overstate how bad this is likely to get. The people who are saying "durr it's not as bad as the flu" are either woefully ignorant or just not very bright.
 
2020-02-23 6:43:32 PM  

seanpg71: Leader O'Cola: common sense is an oxymoron:

I'm usually the one obsessing over proper definitions and scientific accuracy, yet here I am defending dumbed-down reporting.  Weird.


My guess is that until 2 hours ago, you had no idea what logistic growth even was.


The entire curve is an S curve.  Yeah.  We know.  That's how diseases work because there aren't infinite people.  That isn't news.  Reporting that the growth will ultimately follow that curve doesn't tell us what is happening now.

Are we in a relatively flat section?  Are we in the section that's still ramping up?  Or are we in the section where it's starting to level off?

The news is reporting that we're still in the part of that curve where it looks more or less like an exponential and we haven't started leveling off yet.


if only we understood the actual underlying mechanics of multi-node networked systems of coupled delay differential equation epidemic models.  Then we could fit parameters to the data, and predict what the long term outcome would be.  ... if only.   But instead, let's go with "it's going to infinity because the math is too hard otherwise!"   where's that stupid "today you have 1 husband/wife" graph?
 
2020-02-23 7:03:52 PM  
If anybody who is claiming COVID-19 is actually a bio-weapon wants a free month of Fark, please email me your PO box, and I will send you a free month of FARK. No kidding. To cash in your certificate, you have to undergo a good, hard cock/vulva-punch, at the time of your convenience. Stop it. Please, just STOP. It is like claiming in the dark ages the plague came from "evil spirits" or the devil. Just stop. Viruses don't work like that. That is all.
 
2020-02-23 7:35:11 PM  

Leader O'Cola: Harlee: Leader O'Cola: Harlee: [Fark user image 850x305]

so in December or January the Death "Rate" was > 100% ?

So you don't understand how exponential trendlines work in Excel, or know how to read graphs?

I understand perfectly well, which is why I'd never fit that data with such a stupid functional form .


Oh goody, a professional.

Show us what you got, Slick. I'm always open to learning new techniques.
 
2020-02-23 8:18:39 PM  

Leader O'Cola: seanpg71: Leader O'Cola: common sense is an oxymoron:

I'm usually the one obsessing over proper definitions and scientific accuracy, yet here I am defending dumbed-down reporting.  Weird.


My guess is that until 2 hours ago, you had no idea what logistic growth even was.


The entire curve is an S curve.  Yeah.  We know.  That's how diseases work because there aren't infinite people.  That isn't news.  Reporting that the growth will ultimately follow that curve doesn't tell us what is happening now.

Are we in a relatively flat section?  Are we in the section that's still ramping up?  Or are we in the section where it's starting to level off?

The news is reporting that we're still in the part of that curve where it looks more or less like an exponential and we haven't started leveling off yet.

if only we understood the actual underlying mechanics of multi-node networked systems of coupled delay differential equation epidemic models.  Then we could fit parameters to the data, and predict what the long term outcome would be.  ... if only.   But instead, let's go with "it's going to infinity because the math is too hard otherwise!"   where's that stupid "today you have 1 husband/wife" graph?


So do the math - since it's apparently possible and easy.  Tell us where this is going to start leveling out.
 
2020-02-23 8:18:58 PM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-02-23 8:34:19 PM  

Butterflew: If it's bad in South Korea then it's REALLY bad in North Korea, and since they don't tell their people anything, they probably don't even know what they're sick with and how contagious it is. Eek.


WE don't know how contagious it is.
??????????????
 
2020-02-23 9:03:06 PM  

common sense is an oxymoron: Leader O'Cola: oh boy, now we can hear more scary and stupid news-anchor people chanting "ooga booga! exponential increase!"

Funny you should mention that, now that the numbers from outside of China are becoming more clear.

[Fark user image 756x539]


"Log Plot?" as my old physics master used to say.
 
2020-02-23 10:24:30 PM  

Tillmaster: common sense is an oxymoron: Leader O'Cola: oh boy, now we can hear more scary and stupid news-anchor people chanting "ooga booga! exponential increase!"

Funny you should mention that, now that the numbers from outside of China are becoming more clear.

[Fark user image 756x539]

"Log Plot?" as my old physics master used to say.


for this data, it would show a non-linear response.
so, your point is what?
 
2020-02-23 10:38:43 PM  

Birnone: I notice that in these outbreak stories there's always a specific circumstance involved, and the dead are older people.

For instance, the way I read this story, there is no outbreak in South Korea. The outbreak is among members of a particular church. This church happens to be in South Korea, this could have happened anywhere.

If there were random people who were infected, and none of them had one central link to each other, THEN I'd call that an outbreak.

If there was a city in South Korea, and it had a couple of hundred newly detected people who were infected, and these people were from all walks of life and various types of backgrounds, and the dead consisted of 18-40 year olds, now we're seeing something scary. Until then meh.


Well, only half of the South Korea infections are linked to the church group, so clearly people are getting infected from elsewhere.
 
2020-02-24 12:51:19 AM  

Birnone: I notice that in these outbreak stories there's always a specific circumstance involved, and the dead are older people.

For instance, the way I read this story, there is no outbreak in South Korea. The outbreak is among members of a particular church. This church happens to be in South Korea, this could have happened anywhere.

If there were random people who were infected, and none of them had one central link to each other, THEN I'd call that an outbreak.

If there was a city in South Korea, and it had a couple of hundred newly detected people who were infected, and these people were from all walks of life and various types of backgrounds, and the dead consisted of 18-40 year olds, now we're seeing something scary. Until then meh.


The original spreader at the church said she did not travel outside of South Korea. What this means is someone came to South Korea who had the virus. Chances are she was not the only one that contracted the virus from this individual. Now that a good portion of the church is sick, you can bet that each of those members have passed it on to at least 2 people, and so on, and so on. So, yes it is an outbreak we are just at the beginning of it. Next week and the week following you are really going to start seeing numbers multiply of cases in SK and coincidentally any country those individuals are travelling to. America is likely to start seeing this shortly as well.
 
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