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(Vox)   How to avoid the Dunning-Kruger effect, explained by psychologist David Dunning. If you don't think you need to read the article, it probably wouldn't benefit you anyway   (vox.com) divider line
    More: Interesting, Mind, Barack Obama, Illusory superiority, Cognition, 2004 singles, 2007 singles, Dunning-Kruger effect, people of low ability  
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10047 clicks; posted to Main » on 01 Feb 2019 at 12:05 AM (24 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2019-01-31 06:32:00 PM  
Actually a good article -- to hear from the actual author about his researched implications is pretty interesting compared to what is read and inferred from others.
 
2019-01-31 06:34:58 PM  
Well of course he thinks he knows what he's talking about.
 
2019-01-31 06:49:25 PM  
The headline...I see what you did there.
 
2019-01-31 08:09:11 PM  
images.askmen.comView Full Size
 
2019-01-31 08:10:45 PM  
I guess he needs to come out and say this now, considering we have a Dunning-Kruger Effect Incarnate walking around the White House.
 
2019-01-31 09:13:07 PM  

scottydoesntknow: I guess he needs to come out and say this now, considering we have a Dunning-Kruger Effect Incarnate walking around the White House.


It's very much acknowledged in the article: You might recognize Dunning's name as half of a psychological phenomenon that feels highly relevant to the current political zeitgeist: the Dunning-Kruger effect.
 
2019-01-31 09:18:58 PM  
img.fark.netView Full Size
 
2019-01-31 09:56:35 PM  

revrendjim: Well of course he thinks he knows what he's talking about.


Not necessarily
 
2019-02-01 12:08:52 AM  

WyDave: [img.fark.net image 403x365]


Well, I'm not actually sure whether I'm in it or not.
 
2019-02-01 12:14:40 AM  
UGH! It's an introduction then a chat about it.

Why not just write an article about what the information the person said!
 
2019-02-01 12:16:05 AM  
TL;DR
 
2019-02-01 12:17:51 AM  
You win the click-bait award submitter. I. cannot. resist....
 
2019-02-01 12:22:18 AM  
So everyone below about the top 1/3 over-estimates their ability or expertise, to various degrees.  Yet the article ends with a suggestion to be more social.
 
2019-02-01 12:29:37 AM  
hmm. Not sure where I fit on that graph in the article.  At work I have always lacked confidence and thought I don't do that good of a job vs quite a few other folks.  My review results are always "meets expectation" but never above or below that and my promotions have been relatively slow.  Can't quite seem to land a position above "single contributor".  None of the latter make me think I am on right-hand (underestimating my performance) side of the graph.  I also don't think I am on the left (over-estimating my abilities).  Am I dead tits on the spot where they cross?
 
2019-02-01 12:29:54 AM  
It doesn't help that some people fail to recognize luck or privilege when gathering evidence for their expertise.
 
2019-02-01 12:31:48 AM  

HMS_Blinkin: scottydoesntknow: I guess he needs to come out and say this now, considering we have a Dunning-Kruger Effect Incarnate walking around the White House.
It's very much acknowledged in the article: You might recognize Dunning's name as half of a psychological phenomenon that feels highly relevant to the current political zeitgeist: the Dunning-Kruger effect.


Well, you could say that about almost anything right now, and it would still be right. Rage, despair, fear and anxiety, existential distress, insanity, drug dependence......
 
2019-02-01 12:35:41 AM  
I'm really quite good at avoiding the Dunning-Kruger Effect.
 
2019-02-01 12:40:10 AM  
I got everything I needed from the headline. Thank you subby.
 
2019-02-01 12:43:16 AM  
Takeaway: Practice probability over certainty, but I don't know.
 
2019-02-01 12:46:12 AM  
FTA:

The work is about [how] when people don't get it, they don't realize they don't get it. And so the fact that people don't get the work in major ways is a delicious irony, but also terrific confirmation.

That's not ironic.
 
2019-02-01 12:47:21 AM  
That's okay, I don't know how to read.
 
2019-02-01 12:49:43 AM  
I'm glad the Dunning-Kruger effect exists. The internet would be such a boring place without it. Can you imagine Fark with a whole bunch  of "I don't know" posts followed by a single factual comment from an actual expert? Ugh!
 
2019-02-01 12:51:00 AM  

Marcus Aurelius: [images.askmen.com image 850x425]


Wait a second....those are fake hands!
 
2019-02-01 12:51:11 AM  
The trouble I have with doubt is it never leaves me. I'm flummoxed by it. I have been called an expert by some coworkers and I almost laugh because I never have and never will see myself that way. Yet getting some people to do what I consider basic tasks can be a monumental effort. My inability to train others to my personal level of standard means that I must be a failure after all.
 
2019-02-01 12:51:20 AM  
On probability vs certainties: Dunning's description also works as a very basic understanding of quantum mechanics, which works on probability waves; positions begin with a great many possible positions/states, which collapse into a single outcome depending on a lot of super-complicated stuff that I'm too stoned to explain right now.
 
2019-02-01 12:52:58 AM  
I read the article. That makes me an expert on the Dunning-Kruger effect.
 
2019-02-01 12:54:22 AM  
That's where people of low ability - let's say, those who fail answer logic puzzles correctly - tend to unduly overestimate their abilities.

but how do they score on non-answer logic puzzles? what is the sound of one hand clapping, mr dunning?
 
2019-02-01 12:56:12 AM  
Didn't we just have an article, like three or four days ago, where we all agreed that psychology is not real science?

/ unless it fits your preconceived bias apparently
 
2019-02-01 12:56:45 AM  

casual disregard: The trouble I have with doubt is it never leaves me. I'm flummoxed by it. I have been called an expert by some coworkers and I almost laugh because I never have and never will see myself that way. Yet getting some people to do what I consider basic tasks can be a monumental effort. My inability to train others to my personal level of standard means that I must be a failure after all.


Many describe me as "brilliant" or "genius-level," which makes me extremely uncomfortable. Besides, I've taken an IQ test and it's squarely in the "gifted" range. Not that I do anything worthwhile with it.
 
2019-02-01 01:10:47 AM  
Is this the humblebrag thread?
 
2019-02-01 01:16:25 AM  

0z79: casual disregard: The trouble I have with doubt is it never leaves me. I'm flummoxed by it. I have been called an expert by some coworkers and I almost laugh because I never have and never will see myself that way. Yet getting some people to do what I consider basic tasks can be a monumental effort. My inability to train others to my personal level of standard means that I must be a failure after all.

Many describe me as "brilliant" or "genius-level," which makes me extremely uncomfortable. Besides, I've taken an IQ test and it's squarely in the "gifted" range. Not that I do anything worthwhile with it.


A real IQ costs a few thousand dollars and takes about 12 hours.  Is that what you did?
 
2019-02-01 01:16:41 AM  
Test.

See, I dumb.
 
2019-02-01 01:17:31 AM  
I know what I'm good with, and what I don't know shiat about. There's a lot more I know just the basics of, and wouldn't presume it makes me knowledgeable. But I could do a PhD in economics because I actually understand why all currencies are fiat, and how they work well. And how they fail.
 
2019-02-01 01:21:13 AM  

wademh: revrendjim: Well of course he thinks he knows what he's talking about.

Not necessarily


And how would you know?
 
2019-02-01 01:22:29 AM  
So.... To assess yourself. Take an extensive test of whatever. After you finish but but before you see results, you guess your score. If you are higher than actual, then you were affected.

Am I reading that right?
 
2019-02-01 01:23:34 AM  

bughunter: It doesn't help that some people fail to recognize luck or privilege when gathering evidence for their expertise.


So do you think that if you had the same luck and/or privilege you'll be at least as successful?

This sounds relevant.
 
2019-02-01 01:24:31 AM  
FTA: Number two is, over the years, the understanding of the effect out there in popular culture has morphed from "poor performers are way overconfident," to "beginners are way overconfident." We just published something within the last year where we showed that beginners don't start out falling prey to the Dunning-Kruger effect, but they get there real quick. So they quickly come to believe they know how to handle a task when they really don't have it yet.

At the job I worked for 17 years, I did notice when the effect would start. When training new workers in the job that I did, they would at first accept the role of trainee that didn't know anything about anything. But about 3 or 4 weeks into the job, like clockwork, a switch would flip and they would suddenly think they knew how to do it better than I did, and start telling me I was doing it wrong, that I didn't need to do all that extra stuff, without understanding the reasons why that extra stuff needed to be done because they hadn't seen what happens when you don't do that extra stuff. This timing was very consistent, across all kinds of personalities. The personality only determined how well and quickly they dealt with correcting their erroneous assumptions.
 
2019-02-01 01:26:03 AM  

casual disregard: The trouble I have with doubt is it never leaves me. I'm flummoxed by it. I have been called an expert by some coworkers and I almost laugh because I never have and never will see myself that way. Yet getting some people to do what I consider basic tasks can be a monumental effort. My inability to train others to my personal level of standard means that I must be a failure after all.


Impostor!
 
2019-02-01 01:28:09 AM  

Shazam999: FTA:

The work is about [how] when people don't get it, they don't realize they don't get it. And so the fact that people don't get the work in major ways is a delicious irony, but also terrific confirmation.

That's not ironic.


That people don't really understand the concept that they think they understand, about people thinking they understand concepts that they really don't understand?

I think that's ironic.
 
2019-02-01 01:28:51 AM  

evilsofa: FTA: Number two is, over the years, the understanding of the effect out there in popular culture has morphed from "poor performers are way overconfident," to "beginners are way overconfident." We just published something within the last year where we showed that beginners don't start out falling prey to the Dunning-Kruger effect, but they get there real quick. So they quickly come to believe they know how to handle a task when they really don't have it yet.

At the job I worked for 17 years, I did notice when the effect would start. When training new workers in the job that I did, they would at first accept the role of trainee that didn't know anything about anything. But about 3 or 4 weeks into the job, like clockwork, a switch would flip and they would suddenly think they knew how to do it better than I did, and start telling me I was doing it wrong, that I didn't need to do all that extra stuff, without understanding the reasons why that extra stuff needed to be done because they hadn't seen what happens when you don't do that extra stuff. This timing was very consistent, across all kinds of personalities. The personality only determined how well and quickly they dealt with correcting their erroneous assumptions.


I've been in my field for around 15 years. I still maintain the learner part of myself when it comes to something new. I generally assume I have no idea wtf I am talking about. ;)
 
2019-02-01 01:32:12 AM  

baron von doodle: So.... To assess yourself. Take an extensive test of whatever. After you finish but but before you see results, you guess your score. If you are higher than actual, then you were affected.

Am I reading that right?


Kinda sorta. Dumbasses think they are way smarter than they are. Smrt people tend to second guess themselves.

/ didn't need two doctors to figure that one out
 
2019-02-01 02:14:55 AM  

Resident Muslim: wademh: revrendjim: Well of course he thinks he knows what he's talking about.

Not necessarily

And how would you know?


By reference to this graph.
cdn.vox-cdn.comView Full Size


In particular, by reference to that part of the "perceived ability" line that sinks below the "Actual Test Score" line for the more extreme part of the Top Quartile section of the chart. Put another way, by reference to the data presented by Dunning and Kruger which documents that objectively well informed people tend to under-estimate their own knowledge. Of course, this sort of interpretation conforms to my preconceptions that the deepest problem of higher education is the process of "unlearning" things that have been sold as "common sense" or otherwise installed in the minds of children through repetition.
 
2019-02-01 02:15:53 AM  

Resident Muslim: Shazam999: FTA:

The work is about [how] when people don't get it, they don't realize they don't get it. And so the fact that people don't get the work in major ways is a delicious irony, but also terrific confirmation.

That's not ironic.

That people don't really understand the concept that they think they understand, about people thinking they understand concepts that they really don't understand?

I think that's ironic.


If you think that DK is real, then no, it's not ironic.
 
2019-02-01 02:21:19 AM  
img.fark.netView Full Size

wademh: In particular, by reference to that part of the "perceived ability" line that sinks below the "Actual Test Score" line for the more extreme part of the Top Quartile section of the chart. Put another way, by reference to the data presented by Dunning and Kruger which documents that objectively well informed people tend to under-estimate their own knowledge. Of course, this sort of interpretation conforms to my preconceptions that the deepest problem of higher education is the process of "unlearning" things that have been sold as "common sense" or otherwise installed in the minds of children through repetition.


If you look closely at the graph, it appears that everyone seems to think they're between 55 and 75 percent. The "bright" folks could just be underestimating how many truly stupid people there are. The stupid people...well, they're just too damn dumb to realize that they are the stupid people.
 
2019-02-01 02:21:47 AM  
"Well, that's the news from Lake Wobegon, where all the women are strong, all the men are good-looking, and all the children are above average."
 
2019-02-01 02:23:53 AM  

Shazam999: Resident Muslim: Shazam999: FTA:

The work is about [how] when people don't get it, they don't realize they don't get it. And so the fact that people don't get the work in major ways is a delicious irony, but also terrific confirmation.

That's not ironic.

That people don't really understand the concept that they think they understand, about people thinking they understand concepts that they really don't understand?

I think that's ironic.

If you think that DK is real, then no, it's not ironic.


All three of you don't know what irony means.
 
2019-02-01 02:31:51 AM  

BafflerMeal: Shazam999: Resident Muslim: Shazam999: FTA:

The work is about [how] when people don't get it, they don't realize they don't get it. And so the fact that people don't get the work in major ways is a delicious irony, but also terrific confirmation.

That's not ironic.

That people don't really understand the concept that they think they understand, about people thinking they understand concepts that they really don't understand?

I think that's ironic.

If you think that DK is real, then no, it's not ironic.

All three of you don't know what irony means.


it's like goldy and bronzy only it's made out of iron
 
2019-02-01 02:33:23 AM  
I think an excellent example of this is bad drivers who get angry at other people when they are the ones at fault. Some people don't know the basics like your stopping distance triples in the rain. Don't tailgate, use your goddamn turn signals. Nope. It's the other person's fault for not knowing your turning without indication.

The other scary part is, this is how civilizations crumble. People who think they know but don't. "the internet is a series of tubes" ffs
 
2019-02-01 02:36:59 AM  

Shazam999: 0z79: casual disregard: The trouble I have with doubt is it never leaves me. I'm flummoxed by it. I have been called an expert by some coworkers and I almost laugh because I never have and never will see myself that way. Yet getting some people to do what I consider basic tasks can be a monumental effort. My inability to train others to my personal level of standard means that I must be a failure after all.

Many describe me as "brilliant" or "genius-level," which makes me extremely uncomfortable. Besides, I've taken an IQ test and it's squarely in the "gifted" range. Not that I do anything worthwhile with it.

A real IQ costs a few thousand dollars and takes about 12 hours.  Is that what you did?


Yes, it was super-easy to do on social security disability. :p
 
2019-02-01 02:44:35 AM  
Ok, I'm interested in this plot.
cdn.vox-cdn.comView Full Size


One thing I've noticed about percentile is people don't get it.  I mean, a lot of people understand the concept well enough, but few people really have a good feeling for what the numbers really mean.  We are used to thinking about things as bell-curve like: where there are a few exceptionally bad and a few exceptionally good performance, and a whole lot of average ones.

Say you take a test and score 30th percentile.  Say the teacher hands you your test back with a big red circled "30th %ile".  Many people, even though who know what percentile means, would at least start to freak out.  But the fact is, 30th percentile might be a score of 75/100, and only a few points below average.  It'd be a C- on a curve: not great but hardly failing.

I'm very good at math (no, really) and whenever I see a percentile, I force myself to put it in perspective, but I have to work against my gut feeling.  My instinct tells me that the number means something different than it really means.

Why this interests me: Dunning and Kruger asked these people to predict their performance.  This graph indicates that they asked the the test subjects to estimate their percentile.  (There are other ways to arrive at this graph, but my recollection of the study is that is exactly what they did: they asked people to rate what percentage of people they would score higher than.)  Might some of the test subjects have said, "Yeah I'll be 60th percentile", but in their head they were really thinking they'd get a score of 60/100?  Or is their answer biased their guess toward a larger number because an actual percentile seems extreme?  (And, let's face it, they probably understand percentiles even less since they are low achievers.)

Now that I see this, I'm questioning the Dunning-Kruger effect.  I think it could very well be people not having a good feel for percentiles.  We all know simpletons with an overinflated sense of their capabilities (I have a whole bevy of them in my Ignore List), but seeing this I'm not so sure it's an actual trend.
 
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