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(The New York Times)   When you try to deny climate change but then the hurricane hits   ( nytimes.com) divider line
    More: Florida, Flood, climate change, Global warming, Tropical cyclone, Storm surge, John McCain, Paris climate accord, Weather  
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7402 clicks; posted to Main » on 11 Oct 2018 at 6:32 AM (9 days ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2018-10-11 05:25:34 PM  

sardonicobserver: ClimateGate


DRINK!
 
2018-10-11 05:33:33 PM  

sardonicobserver: Cynicism101: sardonicobserver: blah blah blah

The Dilbert guy seems like a real tool but I'm with him that economic models are the worst kind of models though the climate models are pretty good. This is discussed in The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver, which I highly recommend.

HOWEVER! you probably don't need an economic model to tell you that natural disasters and flooding coastlines are expensive to deal with.

I posted the Dilbert strip because it represents a thumbnail of lots of pointless arguments.  It's a bit sharper to one side than the other, though.

I've heard of The Signal and the Noise.  I'm no stranger to modeling, prediction and statistics, so I looked at the book on Amazon.  It's inexpensive and has the "Look Inside" feature.  The TOC shows that it addresses things on a pretty high level using elementary arguments so it talks to a lot of people, but the introduction and Chapter 1 show the depth to be pretty limited -- other Amazon suggestions from the shopping cart page include "High School Math Made Simple."  But it looks like a really excellent monolograph on what modeling and prediction is all about, with examples and curves, sort of like the book Augustine's Laws which is one of my favorites.  So, I'm getting a copy and will read it.  If it pans out, I'll offer it up to others when it seems constructive to do so.

Regarding sea level rise and flooding, yes, it is happening and it's real, and it seems obvious that the warming trend is a causative element there.  Global temperature averages were 10 F lower during the height of the last Ice Age when glaciers reached the tropics, the sea level was tens of feet lower than it is today, and early Mongols walked from Siberia to Alaska on dry ground.  But the "hockey stick" turned out to be an artifact of data manipulation and the selection of models and their results.  Al Gore's famous slide show that was the basis of An Inconvenient Truth, once he was done saying "I used to be the next President of the United States" at the start of the movie, predicted that the "hockey stick" curve would continue and temperatures would run away, and that the sea levels would rise something like 30 feet by... 2020???  The fact that global temperatures declined slightly for a decade after 2000 didn't help his case, and ClimateGate exposed the bogus use of models in generating the hockey stick, most notably by Michael E. Mann, the author of the paper that defined the hockey stick to the climate science community.  It appears that grant money or some similar influence(s) corrupted the climate science community beyond all credibility, disabling the capability of the climate science community to affect national policy.  If there is anything we can do that would help, we need a credible basis to support huge, expensive decisions, but, there hasn't been one since then, so we don't know, and nobody will do anything really expensive.  For that, you can blame the corruption of the climate science community.


Wow, that's a lot of words to say "I don't like the scientific conclusions made by many hundreds and thousands of studies from around the world"
 
2018-10-11 05:37:42 PM  

cameroncrazy1984: Wow, that's a lot of words to say "I don't like the scientific conclusions made by many hundreds and thousands of studies from around the world"


Sometimes Fark really is a humor site.
 
2018-10-11 05:40:13 PM  

Cthulhu Theory: Cthulu, I'm taking the time to reply to your post because I don't think anything that I actually posted in this thread is antithetical to anything, and your history seems more constructive than argumentative. If you have the time, please search for my user name in this thread from the beginning and read each post through to the end.

/Where's the beef?

The beef is in the eye of the beholder! Duh. ;)

Also, you don't need me to validate anything. Just stick to providing objective things and addressing the points/facts you take issue with and I'm sure you'll be just fine. Just, whatever you do, don't go around talking about ignoring facts.


Thanks for the good advice.

I try to ignore posts that just troll without saying anything, but did call a couple of them out today.  But, "don't feed the trolls" is a good policy.  I looked at the user profile of one persistent troll, and saw that this FARKer posts long argumentative threads on his profile and such.  Then I noticed that he was trolling lots of other posts on this thread.  There was no actual content in any of his posts.  I'm thinking of blocking that one.  I never blocked FARKers before because there's always the possibility that on another thread they might be funny or informative.
 
2018-10-11 05:43:02 PM  

sardonicobserver: I try to ignore posts that just troll without saying anything, but did call a couple of them out today


Actually, all you did was call posters that weren't buying your nonsense "SJWs."

That right there disqualifies you for any serious discussion.
 
2018-10-11 05:51:29 PM  

Zafler: sardonicobserver: China will not take the economic hit of lowering emissions drastically

China leads the way with 1,398,207 GWh (Gigawatt hours) of renewable energy.

Everything else you've posted is equally based in willful and, apparently, deliberate ignorance.


That's a huge number, but typical of the 24/7 output of a small to medium sized power plant.  How many of these does China have?  What is the renewable energy output of the US?  Britain?  France?  Germany?

Do note that China is doing more on fusion power than just about anyone else.  If they get it first, cheap energy can give them a huge advantage in world trade.  The rest of the world is sharing all fusion technology and information.  And, some if not all Chinese fusion researchers are sharing too.  Right now, plans are to build the first prototype in Europe.  That first continuously operating prototype that is put on the grid 24/7 or any approximation thereof will probably have its greatest value in offering opportunities to solve more technological and physics issues, more so than in producing power for invested money and effort, but the generation after that will begin the revolution.  So, if China wants to invest in their own Tokamaks and Stellarators, it's just fine with everyone.  The US is doing that, as is Germany and others.
 
2018-10-11 06:08:23 PM  
And btw, Scott Adams is a clueless dipshiat who calls people "climate alarmists."
 
2018-10-11 06:18:44 PM  
Ess-Jews killed my peasant workers and put my lands to fire and sword.

I fear that my estate is destroyed; my noble title ground to dust and ashes.

Lost!   All is lost!

[Screams eternally ]
 
2018-10-11 06:31:00 PM  

Sean VasDeferens: Gubbo: Lucky LaRue: Weather is not the same thing as climate.  Trying to equate a hurricane with climate change makes the alarmist look even more  uneducated and ignorant than they actually are.

While it is true that hurricanes are not caused by climate change, there is a lot of building evidence that the increase in frequency, the increase in strength, and the massive increase in how quickly hurricanes are intensifying are all linked to global warming.

But sure, go with your technically correct and completely devoid of context post.

We just went 12 years without a hurricane making landfall in the U.S.


I think that's what Trump was referring to as "the calm before the storm".
 
2018-10-11 06:39:39 PM  

whidbey: cameroncrazy1984: Wow, that's a lot of words to say "I don't like the scientific conclusions made by many hundreds and thousands of studies from around the world"

Sometimes Fark really is a humor site.


The Earth doesn't care about economics or politics.  And since there's a significant number of people in powerful positions who only care about economics and/or politics, who are just aggravating the problem, there's not much else to do most of the time.

We may have to wait for Nov 8, or 2020, or whenever we have a chance to remove the people who only care about politics/economics from power, but the Earth waits for no one.
 
2018-10-11 07:29:45 PM  

Zafler: beverly8: whidbey: beverly8: whidbey: beverly8: whidbey: beverly8: Gubbo: sardonicobserver: Climate is and has always been changing in one way or another.  Earth has had ice ages and warm ages, and the Sun palpably goes through 11-year cycles that vary from time to time.  There was the medieval warm period followed by the little ice age, which ended in the 1850-1900 time frame.  There has been a warming trend since about 1900.  Data for recent decades has been diddled; see below.

<snip>

Baffle with bullshiat

actually, the part about it being altered is true, however, they have been altered in the opposite direction.  they arent being amped up, they have been being toned down.  a lot.

algore

dude, its the total truth though.  and, as a person who does  not drive, lives in an apartment, uses reusable things rather than one time and toss products, still uses a note 4, and a computer that was my moms old one, and is probably about ten years old now, and barely ever flies, even though, as a person born abroad, and having almost my entire maternal side in france, i have more o a valid reason to fly frequently than a farking person being a tourist on vacation, and eats as much local foods as i can, i think i have every right to talk shiat about some high emitting douchebag who scolds everyone else about their emissions,

Yes, algore has a mansion and tells people what to do.

Nothing fishy about anyone who pushes this narrative.

i dont push it, dummy, you do. you are the one bringing him up, not me.

And in so doing, it belies your real perspective.

that he is a hypocrite?  yes, that is my perspective.  why are you swinging on his dick so hard?

You do realize Al Gore uses green energy, increased efficiency of his properties, and offsets his carbon usage to be carbon neutral right? He even gave a damn TED talk about ways to do so.


And you still realize he is a very high itter, and offsetting Is a complete bullshiat term which means jack shiat in reality, right?
 
2018-10-11 07:30:39 PM  

sardonicobserver: beverly8: sardonicobserver: beverly8: sardonicobserver: whidbey: sardonicobserver: That's my great fear, and if the developed countries don't fund the effort to get out in front of the problem, we will have the problem get out in front of us, as you say.

Right, it's 3rd world countries' problem, not ours, the biggest polluters.

Humor appreciated but set aside, perhaps it's a competitive attitude problem in some cases.  In developing countries, foregoing clean industry during start-up is perhaps forgivable because it's a small thing compared to the rest of the world, but then there are cases like China and others.  China didn't begin to start trying to control atmospheric pollution until it became a major public health problem in their largest cities.

I once had a Nixon joke book that asked "When will Nixon do something about air pollution?"  Answer was "When it interferes with TV reception."  A news photo on a Chinese news site:
[img.fark.net image 800x534]

china knows its going to sufer badly because of wet bulb temps going up enough to cause unlivable conditions in some pretty large areas of the country.  india will have the same issue.  like, 6 hours in the shade and a normal healthy adult dies type shiat is gonna happen

This raises the question "How can we help?"  And, finding a way to help is not a goal, it's an agenda.

reduce emissions drastically and now.  thats why im so farking cynical about shiat like articles saying omg dont drink coffee, climate change.  it has to be on a scale that most people arent going to want to deal with.  but this is whats facing china http://news.mit.edu/2018/china-could-f​ace-deadly-heat-waves-due-climate-chan​ge-0731

If the past few decades is any guide, China will not take the economic hit of lowering emissions drastically unless everyone else does it first, no matter what.  More mature governments such as that of India are better but not leaders like the US and much of developed Europe.  The US is already doing the best we can toward lowering carbon and fluorocarbon emissions and striving to do better.

If you look at the history of China in the last few hundred years, they were emerging with the rest of the world until the colonial interests sought to undermine their coalescing central governments and colonize their coasts (internet searches:  "opium wars", "boxer rebellion", "century of humiliation" will get you started).  Trade partners walked all over China until Mao's government took hold and then pulled the economy together, which took decades and a pivot to privatization and such.  They've been playing the same game now for a few decades but with their history they believe that's the just way of the world.
[Link][img.fark.net image 800x1076]
By Henri Meyer - Bibliothèque nationale de France, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.​php?curid=62229


China has been lowering emissions
 
2018-10-11 07:32:46 PM  

whidbey: sardonicobserver: I try to ignore posts that just troll without saying anything, but did call a couple of them out today

Actually, all you did was call posters that weren't buying your nonsense "SJWs."

That right there disqualifies you for any serious discussion.


Kind of like how you disqualify yourself, huh?  Pot, meet kettle
 
2018-10-11 07:51:58 PM  

beverly8: [Link][img.fark.net image 800x1076]
By Henri Meyer - Bibliothèque nationale de France, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.​php?curid=62229

China has been lowering emissions


Yes, the last few years, they have turned around in their environmental protection concerns and actions.  I'm hoping that one more generation of leadership will allow near-full generalization of China's integration into the world community, including use of treaties and alliances to assure access to sea lanes like everybody else instead of islet-and-dredging based weapons bases with radio messages like "We Chinese navy.  You leave now."  Normalized low or zero tariff trade, no currency devaluation, and balance of trade, with normalized relations with the other great powers, along with the emergence of cheap renewable energy, will allow a truly great nation to emerge.
 
2018-10-11 08:06:12 PM  

Natalie Portmanteau: Dork Gently: Ike was Category 2 when it first hit the continental US.  Sandy was barely a hurricane under the Saffir-Simpson scale when it finally made landfall.

First landfall was in the Caribbean as a 4. Ike hit texas as a 2 and still did a tremendous amount of damage. Sandy shut down the east coast for almost a week.

This metric of "lol doesn't count" is ridiculous. Ike killed 195 people, sandy killed 285. Katrina killed 1833 as a cat 3 (granted, the levees made it worse), but cat 5 Andrew killed 65. Maybe the Saffir-Simpson scale could use some tweaking.


Sean responded to a claim that intense storms are growing in frequency.  If the US mainland recently went 12 years without being hit by a severe hurricane, that suggests the original claim was wrong.

A really effective rebuttal would be that the US often went longer than that in the past (although I have no idea whether that is true).  Another effective rebuttal would be that the total number of "major hurricanes" -- rather than just those that hit the US mainland -- has not dipped (again, I have no idea if that is true).

Unless you suggest a specific other scale, complaining about Saffir-Simpson is a relatively weak rebuttal, because Saffir-Simpson is still what experts commonly use, and it is what people are used to.  Even if you have a technically better scale in mind, it is probably going to be hard to calculate trustworthy numbers in that scale for historical storms, so it will not be useful as a measure of intense storm trends for many years.
 
2018-10-11 10:28:24 PM  
The nutters really trolled this thread.
 
2018-10-12 04:07:03 AM  
Gov. Rick Scott's administration went so far as to bar some agencies from even using the term "climate change,"

img.fark.netView Full Size
 
2018-10-12 05:11:18 AM  

NephilimNexus: Gov. Rick Scott's administration went so far as to bar some agencies from even using the term "climate change,"

[img.fark.net image 575x328]


This picture farked me up just now because I am super duper high, thanks, I hate it.
 
2018-10-12 06:51:58 AM  

sardonicobserver: Zafler: sardonicobserver: China will not take the economic hit of lowering emissions drastically

China leads the way with 1,398,207 GWh (Gigawatt hours) of renewable energy.

Everything else you've posted is equally based in willful and, apparently, deliberate ignorance.

That's a huge number, but typical of the 24/7 output of a small to medium sized power plant.  How many of these does China have?  What is the renewable energy output of the US?  Britain?  France?  Germany?

Do note that China is doing more on fusion power than just about anyone else.  If they get it first, cheap energy can give them a huge advantage in world trade.  The rest of the world is sharing all fusion technology and information.  And, some if not all Chinese fusion researchers are sharing too.  Right now, plans are to build the first prototype in Europe.  That first continuously operating prototype that is put on the grid 24/7 or any approximation thereof will probably have its greatest value in offering opportunities to solve more technological and physics issues, more so than in producing power for invested money and effort, but the generation after that will begin the revolution.  So, if China wants to invest in their own Tokamaks and Stellarators, it's just fine with everyone.  The US is doing that, as is Germany and others.


So, According to you, a full 25% of the entire U.S. electricity consumption comes from 1 medium size power plant.

You're the poster child for the Dunning-Kruger effect. You speak confidently on subjects you have massive ignorance on, and don't bother to do even the most basic of research into the subject. I award you no points, and may a god of some sort have mercy on your soul.
 
2018-10-12 08:27:13 AM  

Zafler: sardonicobserver: Zafler: sardonicobserver: China will not take the economic hit of lowering emissions drastically

China leads the way with 1,398,207 GWh (Gigawatt hours) of renewable energy.

Everything else you've posted is equally based in willful and, apparently, deliberate ignorance.

That's a huge number, but typical of the 24/7 output of a small to medium sized power plant.  How many of these does China have?  What is the renewable energy output of the US?  Britain?  France?  Germany?

Do note that China is doing more on fusion power than just about anyone else.  If they get it first, cheap energy can give them a huge advantage in world trade.  The rest of the world is sharing all fusion technology and information.  And, some if not all Chinese fusion researchers are sharing too.  Right now, plans are to build the first prototype in Europe.  That first continuously operating prototype that is put on the grid 24/7 or any approximation thereof will probably have its greatest value in offering opportunities to solve more technological and physics issues, more so than in producing power for invested money and effort, but the generation after that will begin the revolution.  So, if China wants to invest in their own Tokamaks and Stellarators, it's just fine with everyone.  The US is doing that, as is Germany and others.

So, According to you, a full 25% of the entire U.S. electricity consumption comes from 1 medium size power plant.

You're the poster child for the Dunning-Kruger effect. You speak confidently on subjects you have massive ignorance on, and don't bother to do even the most basic of research into the subject. I award you no points, and may a god of some sort have mercy on your soul.


Sorry, I read that as billion, and it is trillion.  Without taking time to research the number (I have a place to be this morning!), I would like to get all the numbers that I posted in the message that you flamed.

/Get those meds adjusted!
 
2018-10-12 08:30:44 AM  

sardonicobserver: you flamed


You thought that was flaming?

img.fark.netView Full Size
 
2018-10-12 11:34:54 AM  

sardonicobserver: Get those meds adjusted!


Yes, because people who are properly informed about climate change issues calling your disinformation and ignorance out in this thread must be on medication.

And then you call people who condemn your damaging comments "trolls."

You have no shame, sir.
 
2018-10-12 04:38:16 PM  

Zafler: sardonicobserver: you flamed

You thought that was flaming?

[img.fark.net image 363x310]


My general policy is not to engage with self-appointed online Antifa trolls.  You seem to have a trace of logic and humor, though.  But if China is seriously providing a lot of solar/wind energy relative to their energy use, that is interesting and I will verify myself, because your presentation did not seem... thoughtful and gentlemanly.

But I do like your meme.

Please note that in none of my posts did I disagree with or contradict good science in "thousands" (a few tens?" of climate science papers.  The points I raised about correlation vs. causation and in sources of C02 in ancient atmospheres are well noted in climate science.  The only reason that the self-appointed online Antifa piled on my posts is that they saw initiative and new thinking there, which is highly alarming to fascists.  They presumed that I was something I'm not and attacked their own demons, not me.  So, I've been gentle.

Have a good day.
 
2018-10-12 04:52:36 PM  

whidbey: sardonicobserver: Get those meds adjusted!

Yes, because people who are properly informed about climate change issues calling your disinformation and ignorance out in this thread must be on medication.

And then you call people who condemn your damaging comments "trolls."

You have no shame, sir.


I haven't made any damaging comments about anyone.  You seem to be replying to everyone late in this topic with argumentative posts lately, apparently without reading the threads or having the slightest idea of what is in each thread.  Your profile features clipboard copies of entire argumentative threads with no apparent substance.  And, you're not getting many replies lately.

I see from your profile that you were gifted Total Fark by Myrdinn, whose profile shows him to be a Resistance type.  Drilling down in to Myrdinn's profile shows him/her to be a dedicated online gamer and a very proud and wide ranging troll.  I didn't check for a 4chan account in that username.  So, pro troll Myrdinn is buying Total FARK accounts for other trolls...

/Mod:  Prize for most ignores?
//Get a job.
 
2018-10-12 05:06:40 PM  

sardonicobserver: Your profile features clipboard copies of entire argumentative threads with no apparent substance.


They're quotes, actually from relevant threads, and if you really have a problem with them, you're a Trumper. Yeah.

I haven't made any damaging comments about anyone.

Except scientists. Who very much count in this discussion.

whose profile shows him to be a Resistance type.

OH THE FARKING HORROR

So, pro troll Myrdinn is buying Total FARK accounts for other trolls...

Yes, once again, anyone who calls out your obvious disinformation must be "trolling." At the very least, your comments are disingenuous. Is that what you want?

Mod: Prize for most ignores?

No, but you get the prize for the biggest projection in the thread.

/Get a job.

I have one. And having one doesn't make your easily debunkable anti-science comments any less valid. You might just take the Dunning-Kruger award you were handed and call it a day, dude. Seriously.
 
2018-10-12 05:45:09 PM  
Lil nicky, is that you?
 
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