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(Detroit Free Press)   50 years ago today, Denny McLain became the first 30-game winner since 1934. And probably the last one ever   ( freep.com) divider line
    More: Spiffy, McLain, Detroit Tigers, Major League Baseball, Cy Young Award, Denny McLain, 1968 World Series, time McLain, 1968 Detroit Tigers season  
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499 clicks; posted to Sports » on 14 Sep 2018 at 2:50 PM (8 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



29 Comments     (+0 »)
 
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2018-09-14 12:54:22 PM  
Wanna bet, Subby?
 
2018-09-14 02:06:44 PM  
McLain's accomplishment is even more impressive than you think. He is the ONLY pitcher to win 30 starts in the lively ball era (1920-present). There were other 30-game winners from 1920-34, but they won several in relief.

Lefty Grove in 1931 won 27 starts, 4 in relief
Dizzy Dean in 1934 won 26 starts, 4 in relief
Jim Bagby in 1920 won 25 starts, 6 in relief

McLain, in fact, is the champion by a mile. He is the only man to win more than 28 starts in that era, and there was only one guy who won 28 (Robin Roberts in 1952), although many pitchers have won 27 starts in a season since 1920 (Dazzy Vance, Lefty Grove, Bucky Walters, Sandy Koufax, Steve Carlton and Bob Welch). Bob Welch was the last man to win 27 starts (1990), and in fact was the last man to win more than 24!
 
2018-09-14 02:54:26 PM  

Straight Outta Wells Branch: Wanna bet, Subby?


img.fark.netView Full Size
 
2018-09-14 03:08:11 PM  
I could see deGrom getting to 30 wins if he were pitching for the Red Sox and not the Mets this season.
 
2018-09-14 03:18:10 PM  
I agree that a starting pitcher reaching 30 wins in today's game is a long shot but wins are such an outdated stat. As mentioned above, look at the season deGrom is having; 29 starts, 8-9, 1.71 era, 0.95 whip. He's allowed 3 or fewer runs for 26 consecutive starts, a streak that will lock up his Cy Young award if it continues at Boston on Sunday. That record (previous was 25) stood for 108 years.
 
2018-09-14 03:43:05 PM  

Straight Outta Wells Branch: Wanna bet, Subby?


I'll put a line on it.
 
2018-09-14 03:52:06 PM  

damageddude: I could see deGrom getting to 30 wins if he were pitching for the Red Sox and not the Mets this season.


Not likely. DeGrom will finish with 32-33 starts, which would require him to go at least 30-3. In the entire history of major league baseball, no pitcher has even won 20 or more games with a winning percentage above .900, and no team has ever won more than 90% of a regular pitcher's starts.

And that's even if he got a decision in every start. Starting pitchers get the decision far less than they used to because they only average 6-7 innings per start.

You can use Chris Sale as a reasonable comp. He has 24 starts for the Red Sox and has pitched almost as well as DeGrom. He has only 12 wins in 24 starts. (4 losses and 8 no-decisions). The Red Sox  are only 16-8 in those starts.

Assuming that everything went very well for DeGrom, he might be able to get 27 decisions in 33 starts for the Red Sox, and he might be able to wrangle a 24-3 record. That's a very best case scenario.

Assuming a most likely scenario, DeGrom has given up 2.03 runs per game (all runs, not just unearned), and the Red Sox have scored 5.38 per game, so he might reasonably expect a winning percentage just a hair short of .900. If he got a decision in 70% of his starts, it might be reasonable to assume about a 20-3 record.

But there's also a worst case scenario. Remember Sale only gets a decision in 2/3 of his starts and has "only" been able to post a .750 winning percentage. Assuming those rates over 33 starts, that would be about a 16-6 or 17-5 record.

So I'd say DeGrom might have won 16-24 games in your hypothetical, with 20 being the most likely result. That's a long way from 30.

These days, no pitcher ever starts more than 36 games a year. Unless that changes, there will be no 30 game winner among the starters.

The one thing that could produce another 30-game winner is the increasing trend of shortening the starters' duration, or letting a reliever pitch the first inning. If a team decides to get funky and use pitchers on some kind of inning schedule like 3-3-3 or 1-3-3-1-1, the starter could not get a win under the existing rules, so some relievers might pick up a lot of wins. But that's all just hypothetical. We're still a long way from that, and if the game does ever evolve in that direction, the rules committee might change the definition of a pitching "win," further gumming up the works.
 
2018-09-14 04:01:45 PM  
Straight Outta Wells Branch:

Are you actually from Wells Branch outside of Austin, or is it a different Wells Branch? (Or does it mean something else entirely?)
 
2018-09-14 04:08:38 PM  
There's a good reason why no one will ever break that record: we know better now. McLain pitched 661 innings between '68 and '69. He won 2 Cy Youngs, an MVP and blew out his arm. He only pitched one full season after '69. He was forced to retire at 28.
 
2018-09-14 04:11:57 PM  

damageddude: I could see deGrom getting to 30 wins if he were pitching for the Red Sox and not the Mets this season.


I don't.

Porcello and Price are the only Boston starters who will even get to 30 starts, let alone 30 decisions.

McLain had 41 starts in 1968, and 28 complete games. He threw 336 innings. Welch had 35 starts in 1990 and threw 238 innings. Even elite pitchers are great teams with a high decision ratio only win around 75% of their starts. Kershaw in 2014 had the wins per start ratio, but only had 27 starts. Guidry in 1978 only won 25 of 35 starts. Pedro won 22 of 29 in 1999,as one win was a relief appearance. You'd basically need to be Sutcliffe on the 1984 Cubs, but for a full season (won 16 of 20 starts).
 
2018-09-14 04:13:49 PM  

Adebisi: There's a good reason why no one will ever break that record: we know better now. McLain pitched 661 innings between '68 and '69. He won 2 Cy Youngs, an MVP and blew out his arm. He only pitched one full season after '69. He was forced to retire at 28.


Well, he was also a complete cokehead, which is why he didn't care about blowing his arm out every game.
 
2018-09-14 04:13:54 PM  

tomasso: Straight Outta Wells Branch:

Are you actually from Wells Branch outside of Austin, or is it a different Wells Branch? (Or does it mean something else entirely?)


It's the Wells Branch of Austin.
 
2018-09-14 04:19:28 PM  
  Denny McLain ??
50 years ago ??

♪ Long long ♫ time ago. . ♪
 
2018-09-14 04:27:30 PM  

Adebisi: There's a good reason why no one will ever break that record: we know better now. McLain pitched 661 innings between '68 and '69. He won 2 Cy Youngs, an MVP and blew out his arm. He only pitched one full season after '69. He was forced to retire at 28.


Yeah 30 wins, hell, 30 STARTS is an accomplishment these days.
 
2018-09-14 04:28:32 PM  

ClavellBCMI: Adebisi: There's a good reason why no one will ever break that record: we know better now. McLain pitched 661 innings between '68 and '69. He won 2 Cy Youngs, an MVP and blew out his arm. He only pitched one full season after '69. He was forced to retire at 28.

Well, he was also a complete cokehead, which is why he didn't care about blowing his arm out every game.


Be that as it may, managers had the final say on how many innings the let him pitch. It would never happen today, Superman-strength coke habit or not.
 
2018-09-14 04:45:46 PM  

Adebisi: ClavellBCMI: Adebisi: There's a good reason why no one will ever break that record: we know better now. McLain pitched 661 innings between '68 and '69. He won 2 Cy Youngs, an MVP and blew out his arm. He only pitched one full season after '69. He was forced to retire at 28.

Well, he was also a complete cokehead, which is why he didn't care about blowing his arm out every game.

Be that as it may, managers had the final say on how many innings the let him pitch. It would never happen today, Superman-strength coke habit or not.


Yep, back then a manager would let a starter stay on the mound until their arm damn near literally fell off (which is why Denny McClain did the coke, so he could ignore the pain signals his horribly-abused arm was sending his brain in the pre-drug-test era of sports).
 
2018-09-14 04:54:02 PM  
During Arrieta's great run in 2015, his ERA over his last 20 starts was 0.86, and he only went 16-1 in those games. There's probably better odds of a pitcher hitting for the cycle while throwing a no hitter than a pitcher winning 30 games again.
 
2018-09-14 04:56:37 PM  

Straight Outta Wells Branch: It's the Wells Branch of Austin.


I was kinda shocked to see that. I lived there for many, many years, on Great Willow Drive, but have since left.
 
2018-09-14 04:56:55 PM  
Still better in Wings than Moody Blues.
 
2018-09-14 05:32:07 PM  

Adebisi: There's a good reason why no one will ever break that record: we know better now. McLain pitched 661 innings between '68 and '69. He won 2 Cy Youngs, an MVP and blew out his arm. He only pitched one full season after '69. He was forced to retire at 28.


Some guys just have rubber arms. While McLain was ending his great run, Mickey Lolich was just beginning his. Beginning in 1969, his IP per season: 280, 272, 376, 327, 308, 308, 240. From age 28 to 34. I don't recall him ever being on the DL.

376 freakin' innings. In 2018, that's two solid seasons.
 
2018-09-14 05:40:40 PM  

ChrisDe: Adebisi: There's a good reason why no one will ever break that record: we know better now. McLain pitched 661 innings between '68 and '69. He won 2 Cy Youngs, an MVP and blew out his arm. He only pitched one full season after '69. He was forced to retire at 28.

Some guys just have rubber arms. While McLain was ending his great run, Mickey Lolich was just beginning his. Beginning in 1969, his IP per season: 280, 272, 376, 327, 308, 308, 240. From age 28 to 34. I don't recall him ever being on the DL.

376 freakin' innings. In 2018, that's two solid seasons.


And at least one stint on the DL.
 
2018-09-14 05:50:47 PM  

tomasso: Straight Outta Wells Branch: It's the Wells Branch of Austin.

I was kinda shocked to see that. I lived there for many, many years, on Great Willow Drive, but have since left.


The joke, of course, is how suburban the neighborhood is. It's the least cool neighborhood in the city. I'm okay with it though. It's super close to the office & we have tons of nature trails. A new butterfly garden was just built a block from me.

None of this has anything to do with Denny McLain, of course.
 
2018-09-14 10:38:29 PM  
He is a piece of shiat.
 
2018-09-14 11:08:51 PM  
a1cf74336522e87f135f-2f21ace9a6cf0052456644b80fa06d4f.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.comView Full Size

R.I.P
 
2018-09-15 10:34:25 AM  
I think Denny got into some of Mickey's Donuts?
The Fans 'Roly Poly Mickey Lolich' (Marquee) VOCAL
Youtube gfZR-Hcsm7I
I thing
img.fark.netView Full Size

img.fark.netView Full Size
 
2018-09-15 04:56:10 PM  

Adebisi: There's a good reason why no one will ever break that record: we know better now. McLain pitched 661 innings between '68 and '69. He won 2 Cy Youngs, an MVP and blew out his arm. He only pitched one full season after '69. He was forced to retire at 28.


You're right.  Steve Carlton pitched 346.1 innings in 1972, going 27-10 with a 1.97 ERA.  Just 10 years later, he was only able to pitch 295.2 innings in going 23-11 with a 3.10 ERA to win his fourth Cy Young Award.  In between? 293.1, 291, 255.1, 252.2, 283, 247.1, 251, 304, 190 (strike year, averaged 7.91 innings/start) and two more Cy Youngs.  At age 39, he had 33 starts and pitched 229 innings, which would be among the league leaders today.

Arms are babied too much now and there is way too much reliance on the bullpen.
 
2018-09-15 05:49:45 PM  
I saw him pitch twice in Des Moines while he was trying to make a comeback. He got his fat ass rocked.

There are stories around DM about how pissed up he would get, and that he owed a lot of bookies when he left here.

That Iowa Oaks team had some talent. Bucky Dent, Brian Downing, Ken Frailing...
 
2018-09-15 06:23:13 PM  

vladimpaler: Adebisi: There's a good reason why no one will ever break that record: we know better now. McLain pitched 661 innings between '68 and '69. He won 2 Cy Youngs, an MVP and blew out his arm. He only pitched one full season after '69. He was forced to retire at 28.

You're right.  Steve Carlton pitched 346.1 innings in 1972, going 27-10 with a 1.97 ERA.  Just 10 years later, he was only able to pitch 295.2 innings in going 23-11 with a 3.10 ERA to win his fourth Cy Young Award.  In between? 293.1, 291, 255.1, 252.2, 283, 247.1, 251, 304, 190 (strike year, averaged 7.91 innings/start) and two more Cy Youngs.  At age 39, he had 33 starts and pitched 229 innings, which would be among the league leaders today.

Arms are babied too much now and there is way too much reliance on the bullpen.


You sound like someone who hasn't watched a baseball game in 30 years, has no clue about the strategic advantage of pitcher/batter matchups, is oblivious to the epidemic in TJ surgery that stretches down to the high school level and thinks these young punks just need to toughen up like it was in your day.

Don't worry, I'll try to stay off your lawn.
 
2018-09-15 07:26:06 PM  
They drug test now.
 
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