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(Phys Org2)   US to miss Paris climate pact target by a third. Or, exceed it, bigly, certainly more than any other country, ever. Depends on the messenger   ( phys.org) divider line
    More: Followup, United States, climate change, three-day Global Climate, climate action, combat climate change, President Donald Trump, co-author Paul Bodnar, climate change goals  
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404 clicks; posted to Geek » on 12 Sep 2018 at 7:26 PM (13 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2018-09-12 01:31:52 PM  
Hum, another global warmer doomer story.

I had no idea that Phys.org published political articles.  This article contains no science, only a bit of economics mixed with speculation. The last sentence pretty much says it all, as if the eastern seaboard has never seen a hurricane, and OMG it's a monster:

"As if to illustrate the point, a monster hurricane exhibiting unusual patterns consistent with the influence of global warming is barrelling toward the US eastern seaboard, and projected to make landfall Thursday or Friday in the Carolinas."
 
2018-09-12 08:10:31 PM  
Depends on the messenger

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2018-09-12 08:23:12 PM  

zeaper12: Hum, another global warmer doomer story.

I had no idea that Phys.org published political articles.  This article contains no science, only a bit of economics mixed with speculation. The last sentence pretty much says it all, as if the eastern seaboard has never seen a hurricane, and OMG it's a monster:

"As if to illustrate the point, a monster hurricane exhibiting unusual patterns consistent with the influence of global warming is barrelling toward the US eastern seaboard, and projected to make landfall Thursday or Friday in the Carolinas."


This is parody, right?
 
2018-09-12 08:25:52 PM  
 
2018-09-12 08:43:59 PM  
Nice to see the child killers are out in force today.
 
2018-09-12 09:44:23 PM  
Missing targets we did not actually agree too isn't so much of a sin as other nations gaming that same treaty to defeat the whole concept of having a target. It was a crappy deal and that should have been made clear from inception.
The only way this works is if everyone makes the same sacrifices. Otherwise it's just an unfair-trade treaty in the disguise of environmental protection. It makes things worse by profiting the rule breakers with massive chunks of global industry.
 
2018-09-12 09:44:56 PM  

zeaper12: Hum, another global warmer doomer story.


Remember what Trump said - he represents Pittsburgh, not Paris.

/the joke is he thinks the Paris accord is for the benefit of Paris
//because he's really stupid
 
2018-09-12 10:30:15 PM  
Of course, many countries that actually signed on to the Paris accord mostly missed their Paris Agreement targets by 100%. Quite a few have INCREASED their emissions, like China (up by about 25%).

The US, on the other hand, despite not actually signing the agreement, is doing better than any industrialized country at hitting the targets - and we're about 50% better than the EU managed as a whole (13.9% reduction for the US versus 9.3% for the EU).

Canada even went up, by a little.
 
2018-09-13 07:41:45 AM  
Considering the US is likely dropping out after 2020, I suspect the rats ass they'll give isn't very big.
 
2018-09-13 08:18:11 AM  

TheAlmightyCornholio: Considering the US is likely dropping out after 2020, I suspect the rats ass they'll give isn't very big.


We are still a democracy, which means that the environment (which is a big deal to many voters) is on the ballot. The car market is shifting to electric vehicles. Environmental policy is being enforced regularly. Even when Trump talks about coal he always says it's the clean variant.  That is the way the market and the politics are going, even for those who resist it.

With that in mind: these changes cost money and this treaty allowed a loophole for developing countries to set their own lower limits. China among others market itself as a developing nation. This drags more business it's way and deincentivises it from having to meet its lower benchmarks.
Being an autocracy, they don't care about the environment at all.
So my theory is that this treaty was having a reverse effect. It rewarded those who broke it and punished those who kept it. As it turns out we keep going at our own natural pace, which is still ahead of where others are.
Were we to do this again we would have to set a higher bar and challenge others to meet it regardless of their circumstances. Especially in developing nations that are building infrastructure from scratch. They shouldn't be incentivized to install dirty equipment just so we can exploit their carbon limits.

Donald Trump is no environmentalist but it's a convenient side effect that his attempts to bring industry to the US means that industry is then bound by US environmental law. If we were to care about our rules and the rules of where we buy products from then they would also care a little more and the results would be more pronounced.
We need a change in the market more than we need a treaty. Treaties are often worthless.
 
2018-09-13 05:28:42 PM  

way south: China among others market itself as a developing nation. This drags more business it's way and deincentivises it from having to meet its lower benchmarks.


Impressively, China manages to have higher per-capita (not just total) CO2 emissions than many Western countries, including the UK and France.
 
2018-09-13 08:06:14 PM  
My back of the envelope calculation shows that the US abandonimg the targets means that everybody else more or less has to raise their sights by about a third (which may well be close to the US missing by about a third). But it is true that "intensity" has declined in the US even without targets. Under Clinton and maybe even Bush 41, the USA decreased its intensity ($$$ per tonne of carbon) by more than 18% over the 1990s.

This was with NO real effort--just cost-cutting and energy-savings by consumers and corporations, as well as governments I guess. Money is a strong motivator. The conservatives do have that point down pat.

The ffight is not over anyway. Whatever the Feds do wrong or right, there are 50 states and some might powerful municipalities, counties and corporations. They can pull the weight of the USA without damn fool politicians. USA political fights start often with grassrooots "loonies" and move on to the mainstream and corporations well before they even get to the State or the City governments. The Feds are usually one step forward and two steps back so the net effect of Trump may be nada, zilch, as much as any other US President has ever done, which is close to nothing with the possible exception of Carter.

So don't worry about the Paris Accord. It was an ass-hole thing to kill, a sort of sacred cow slaughtered without compunction, but not really vital to the future of humanity. What is vital is swift and decisive action, and we can hope for more from other levels of government and the people. Even China, which reduced its own intensity by even more than the 18% achieved by nobody and the 19% unanbitious conservative target set by Obama and likely to be adopted by President Clinton.

It's as if Trump is just a big bag of hot noxious gas, perhaps draped in a symbolical diaper. The real action is not on the table. It's under it. And I am not just talking bribes and deal-making. The great flows of money are as underground as the fossil fuels and fossil water. You don't see when personal and collective decisions get taken away from the prying eyes of the press.

Screw Trump. I know Canada and Mexico want to, and most of the US population agrees with them, just not enough to vote.
 
2018-09-13 08:08:19 PM  

Rising Ape: way south: China among others market itself as a developing nation. This drags more business it's way and deincentivises it from having to meet its lower benchmarks.

Impressively, China manages to have higher per-capita (not just total) CO2 emissions than many Western countries, including the UK and France.


It has a lot to do but it has done a lot to, enriching hundreds of millions of urban and coastal Chinese while reducing slowly the inefficiency of old plant and old politics and bureaucracy.

China has always been a bit of curate's egg. It is not a bad egg. Part of it are excellent.
 
2018-09-13 08:10:19 PM  
Everybody should know the famous PUNCH cartoon about the curate dining with the Bishop's family and tact fully dealing with a bad egg. "On the contrary, my Lord. Bits of it are excellent."

Diplomacy is a a great thing. Often very funny, too. A matter of wits and wording.
 
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