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(BBC-US)   Tesla's board confirms they're ready to unplug   ( bbc.com) divider line
    More: Followup, Mr Musk, Stock, Stock market, executive Elon Musk, brother Kimbal Musk, Mr Calamari, company, Tesla  
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1431 clicks; posted to Business » on 08 Aug 2018 at 8:14 PM (12 days ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2018-08-08 06:25:48 PM  
Steven Kaplan, a University of Chicago professor "The company is cash-flow negative. How do you use any debt on a company that is cash-flow negative?"

magical thinking is my guess or other people's money that just have more money than sense
 
Xai [TotalFark] [BareFark]
2018-08-08 06:51:33 PM  
I like how they got the one guy to comment who is both a professor and has never heard of people buying companies with negative cash flows before - hint: It happens all the time, some groups even specialise in it.
 
2018-08-08 08:19:08 PM  

Xai: I like how they got the one guy to comment who is both a professor and has never heard of people buying companies with negative cash flows before - hint: It happens all the time, some groups even specialise in it.


Psssst....don't look now, but..................
 
2018-08-08 08:32:43 PM  

Xai: I like how they got the one guy to comment who is both a professor and has never heard of people buying companies with negative cash flows before - hint: It happens all the time, some groups even specialise in it.


Are those groups vulture capitalist outfits like Bain Capital?

//honestly don't know, but expect that's what they do
 
2018-08-08 08:40:37 PM  
Valuing Tesla at $70B is insane.

For comparison- BMW is at $55B, Ford is $40B, GM is $54B. All three of those are earning billions every year. Tesla is losing countless millions every quarter.
 
2018-08-08 08:48:51 PM  
Is he doing this because he's sick of short sellers?
 
2018-08-08 08:53:01 PM  

Great_Milenko: Xai: I like how they got the one guy to comment who is both a professor and has never heard of people buying companies with negative cash flows before - hint: It happens all the time, some groups even specialise in it.

Are those groups vulture capitalist outfits like Bain Capital?

//honestly don't know, but expect that's what they do


I'm pretty sure Bain grabs things up cheap, and sells cheaper (but don't look closely because they are about to go bankrupt thanks to paying Bain all their money).  It would be hard to sell Tesla at an even more overvalued price.
/did I hear "challenge accepted"
//I'm pretty sure I did
///I wouldn't be surprise if Saudi bought it for the same reason guys buy supercars.  To be seen owning it.  See "how a stupid guy thinks a smart guy invests".
/V [bonus slashie] got creamed in the market, so if you can predict the way the masses are going, go right ahead.  I have no claim to how a "smart guy really invests", just that isn't it.
 
2018-08-08 08:57:42 PM  

madgonad: Valuing Tesla at $70B is insane.

For comparison- BMW is at $55B, Ford is $40B, GM is $54B. All three of those are earning billions every year. Tesla is losing countless millions every quarter.


Yes, maybe insane; but, not the same level of insane as most would think. For the other companies, there's additional long-term liabilities that have to be funded (pensions). For a shareholder, those payments reduce the availability of free cash for use with dividends or capital investments in the future; so, that means lower market cap. Tesla's books, while kind of ugly due to startup issues and reinvestment, are comparatively clean in the long run.

/ Not a shareholder of any of these
// Do what you want with your money
/// Most brand-name stocks are overvalued
 
2018-08-08 09:22:36 PM  

roostercube: madgonad: Valuing Tesla at $70B is insane.

For comparison- BMW is at $55B, Ford is $40B, GM is $54B. All three of those are earning billions every year. Tesla is losing countless millions every quarter.

Yes, maybe insane; but, not the same level of insane as most would think. For the other companies, there's additional long-term liabilities that have to be funded (pensions). For a shareholder, those payments reduce the availability of free cash for use with dividends or capital investments in the future; so, that means lower market cap. Tesla's books, while kind of ugly due to startup issues and reinvestment, are comparatively clean in the long run.

/ Not a shareholder of any of these
// Do what you want with your money
/// Most brand-name stocks are overvalued


If Tesla has some killer tech, IP, or patents that would drive them forward it would make sense to be over valued a bit, but they don't have that either. It is all Reality Distortion Field (borrowed from Jobs).
Also, GM and Ford don't have much in the way of pension commitments to worry about. That's all been flipped to shares.
 
2018-08-08 09:22:41 PM  

roostercube: madgonad: Valuing Tesla at $70B is insane.

For comparison- BMW is at $55B, Ford is $40B, GM is $54B. All three of those are earning billions every year. Tesla is losing countless millions every quarter.

Yes, maybe insane; but, not the same level of insane as most would think. For the other companies, there's additional long-term liabilities that have to be funded (pensions). For a shareholder, those payments reduce the availability of free cash for use with dividends or capital investments in the future; so, that means lower market cap. Tesla's books, while kind of ugly due to startup issues and reinvestment, are comparatively clean in the long run.

/ Not a shareholder of any of these
// Do what you want with your money
/// Most brand-name stocks are overvalued


Not to mention that some world leader happens to do something stupid that sparks another oil crisis, Tesla is well positioned to do to traditional ICE manufacturers what Honda and Toyota did to old school Detroit when the last big crisis hit.
 
2018-08-08 09:25:24 PM  

madgonad: It is all Reality Distortion Field (borrowed from Jobs).


Apple is currently worth 1 trillion.

Just sayin'.
 
2018-08-08 09:30:37 PM  
Between Trump admitting collusion on Twitter (and saying it's not collusion) and Musk tweeting about taking Tesla private (at a specific price!!!) but not backing that up by any official filing or exploratory committee, I feel like I'm living in the Twilight Zone. Why are both of these idiots not in jail by now? I don't care if Musk is saving the world. He's lying to burn short sellers and sooth his ego and should face the consequences.
 
2018-08-08 09:34:31 PM  

Mad_Radhu: roostercube: madgonad: Valuing Tesla at $70B is insane.

For comparison- BMW is at $55B, Ford is $40B, GM is $54B. All three of those are earning billions every year. Tesla is losing countless millions every quarter.

Yes, maybe insane; but, not the same level of insane as most would think. For the other companies, there's additional long-term liabilities that have to be funded (pensions). For a shareholder, those payments reduce the availability of free cash for use with dividends or capital investments in the future; so, that means lower market cap. Tesla's books, while kind of ugly due to startup issues and reinvestment, are comparatively clean in the long run.

/ Not a shareholder of any of these
// Do what you want with your money
/// Most brand-name stocks are overvalued

Not to mention that some world leader happens to do something stupid that sparks another oil crisis, Tesla is well positioned to do to traditional ICE manufacturers what Honda and Toyota did to old school Detroit when the last big crisis hit.


That's only going to remain true until everybody else gets to market with long-range EVs.  The published long-term product plans for legacy automakers show that that horizon isn't far away (GM already has a credible competitor in that space---the Bolt is a good car in spite of its questionable external appearance).  To me, the major upside to Tesla is, like you say, if there's a sudden major shift to EVs from ICE vehicles, and Tesla is the only game in town when that happens.  That shift hasn't happened yet (and may only take place gradually over time rather than suddenly when it does come), and the time is rapidly approaching when Tesla will no longer by "the only game in town."  If/when that time comes, Tesla's opportunity to dramatically grow market share will shrink.
 
2018-08-08 10:01:14 PM  
Hear me and rejoice! You have had the privilege of being saved by the Great Musk. You may think taking Tesla private is suffering. No... it is salvation. The universal scales tip toward balance because of your sacrifice. Smile... for even in the death of your shorts, you have become children of Elon.
 
2018-08-08 10:10:04 PM  

HMS_Blinkin: That's only going to remain true until everybody else gets to market with long-range EVs.  The published long-term product plans for legacy automakers show that that horizon isn't far away (GM already has a credible competitor in that space---the Bolt is a good car in spite of its questionable external appearance).  To me, the major upside to Tesla is, like you say, if there's a sudden major shift to EVs from ICE vehicles, and Tesla is the only game in town when that happens.  That shift hasn't happened yet (and may only take place gradually over time rather than suddenly when it does come), and the time is rapidly approaching when Tesla will no longer by "the only game in town."  If/when that time comes, Tesla's opportunity to dramatically grow market share will shrink


The market tends to reward the first movers. Who else is designing EV semis and trucks right now?

The truth is that the cars are uniquely designed, kind of like Apple (hate them or not) and many people will switch and end up being return customers. The Model 3 at its higher price point is already making a killing against every other similarly priced vehicle it is competing against. Teslas in general have absolute dominance over the EV market right now. Everyone I've given a ride to has loved the car. My experience has been great so far.

I won't pretend their financial situation is great, but they're also clearly building and building, and car manufacturing is about as capital intensive as you get, especially when you're putting a whole new battery production factory together at the same time.

There's a concept in business where the most innovative businesses end up dominating the market. Amazon, Google, Apple, Facebook, these are all dominant industries. And while auto manufacturing clearly has competition, anyone can create computer code and run a website. Tesla own the EV market for now, and there's nothing to say they will continue to be successful in dominating the markets they are moving into.
 
2018-08-08 10:15:07 PM  

madgonad: Valuing Tesla at $70B is insane.

For comparison- BMW is at $55B, Ford is $40B, GM is $54B. All three of those are earning billions every year. Tesla is losing countless millions every quarter.


First mover valuation I'm guessing.

I cant evaluate stocks worth a shiat, I just focus on tech and market advantage (thanks 4 da gainz AMD!!).

Tesla has been a catalyst for significant EV investment by nearly every manufacturer. Thanks to them we're going to see next gen batteries and all the inferences they bring to the world prolly 10-20 years before they would have otherwise.

It makes sense to me anyway. I think most people expected significant problems trying to onboard production to levels needed, the only ones who are feigning surprise are the guys who focus on quarterlies.

How many competitors will have the production capability to meet battery demand in a few years when it blows up? Pretty sure Tesla incorporates their solar stuff too right? When Panasonic delivers perovskite cells drastically reducing costs and skyrocketing demand, how many companies will be in a better situation?

Elon might be a guy that just doesnt really give a shiat about maximizing return at the cost of innovation, and theres a case to be made there. Maybe they'd be better off, would me and you?

Hell if I know. But, Elon *is* a driving force for partnerships like that with Panasonic, who make badass panels already and will be a huge contributor in next gen cells/batteries. The SolarCity acquisition was a few years early probably, but the infrastructure for near future demand was pretty sound.

Its easy to say for me cuz I didnt give them a bunch of $$. But, if the thinking is they're just going to do whatever it takes to make $$ instead of taking advantage of market positioning in soon-to-be absolutely massive industries, then they're assholes and people will just end up buying Toyotas instead and going with other solar options.
 
2018-08-08 10:21:37 PM  
Regulators are likely to be interested in what evidence exists - such as agreements with investors or banks - for Mr Musk's claim that funding was "secured", Mr Calamari said.

Translation: SHOW ME THE MONEY!
What money are they planning to use to buy back everyone's stock? If Musk can't prove the financing is lined up, we're going to see a monster of a lawsuit. A lot of Very Important People are taking a bath on their short positions.
 
2018-08-08 10:42:14 PM  

madgonad: Valuing Tesla at $70B is insane.

For comparison- BMW is at $55B, Ford is $40B, GM is $54B. All three of those are earning billions every year. Tesla is losing countless millions every quarter.


It's actually quite easy to count. Just look at their quarterly SEC filings.
 
2018-08-08 10:59:33 PM  

brownribbon: madgonad: Valuing Tesla at $70B is insane.

For comparison- BMW is at $55B, Ford is $40B, GM is $54B. All three of those are earning billions every year. Tesla is losing countless millions every quarter.

It's actually quite easy to count. Just look at their quarterly SEC filings.


Let's suppose Tesla gets the model 3 to 10k per week in the next year, 500k per year. Gross margins are 7k per car. That's 3.5 billion in gross margin, of course there are other expenditures and operations costs, capital, etc., but it wouldn't be difficult to expect that Tesla will continue to grow in market share as they move into other vehicle classes, trucks, semis, crossovers, and so on. Plus they are planning to expand into a big China market. At 1 million cars per year, that 70B valuation makes more sense, but again it's projected/extrapolated growth. Which just happens to be how every company on earth is valuated.
 
2018-08-08 11:34:28 PM  

Mad_Radhu: roostercube: madgonad: Valuing Tesla at $70B is insane.

For comparison- BMW is at $55B, Ford is $40B, GM is $54B. All three of those are earning billions every year. Tesla is losing countless millions every quarter.

Yes, maybe insane; but, not the same level of insane as most would think. For the other companies, there's additional long-term liabilities that have to be funded (pensions). For a shareholder, those payments reduce the availability of free cash for use with dividends or capital investments in the future; so, that means lower market cap. Tesla's books, while kind of ugly due to startup issues and reinvestment, are comparatively clean in the long run.

/ Not a shareholder of any of these
// Do what you want with your money
/// Most brand-name stocks are overvalued

Not to mention that some world leader happens to do something stupid that sparks another oil crisis, Tesla is well positioned to do to traditional ICE manufacturers what Honda and Toyota did to old school Detroit when the last big crisis hit.


How?
By being the leading not-builder of cars?
Good luck with that.
 
2018-08-09 01:01:26 AM  

bdub77: brownribbon: madgonad: Valuing Tesla at $70B is insane.

For comparison- BMW is at $55B, Ford is $40B, GM is $54B. All three of those are earning billions every year. Tesla is losing countless millions every quarter.

It's actually quite easy to count. Just look at their quarterly SEC filings.

Let's suppose Tesla gets the model 3 to 10k per week in the next year, 500k per year. Gross margins are 7k per car. That's 3.5 billion in gross margin, of course there are other expenditures and operations costs, capital, etc., but it wouldn't be difficult to expect that Tesla will continue to grow in market share as they move into other vehicle classes, trucks, semis, crossovers, and so on. Plus they are planning to expand into a big China market. At 1 million cars per year, that 70B valuation makes more sense, but again it's projected/extrapolated growth. Which just happens to be how every company on earth is valuated.


They are also looking for sites to build cars on Germany for inside the EU market direct.
 
2018-08-09 01:23:58 AM  

bdub77: madgonad: It is all Reality Distortion Field (borrowed from Jobs).

Apple is currently worth 1 trillion.

Just sayin'.


You can be worth a trillion with you gave 250,000,000,000 in the bank and 70,000,000,000 a year in net profit and growing...

The numbers work.
 
2018-08-09 01:31:11 AM  

paulleah: bdub77: madgonad: It is all Reality Distortion Field (borrowed from Jobs).

Apple is currently worth 1 trillion.

Just sayin'.

You can be worth a trillion with you gave 250,000,000,000 in the bank and 70,000,000,000 a year in net profit and growing...

The numbers work.


Yeah people don't want to admit it but beyond the reality distortion field Apple actually had GOOD products in the new millenium, for a good decade and a half at least.

The iPod, iPhone, and iPad were all huge successes, imitated by many. Their laptops were in a golden age of expensive but above average quality. The products and the software that ran on them was at the perfect consumer balance point.

That can make a company a lot of money.
 
2018-08-09 01:42:47 AM  

bdub77: Who else is designing EV semis and trucks right now?


Volvo trucks is expanding its existing electric bus business to include electric trucks for delivery/garbage/other urban usage. Delivering trucks for pilot programs this year, full scale production with no wait list promised for next year. Then they look to scale up to semis later.

Daimler under the Freightliner brand is launching a partner program with Penske trucking one or two other trucking/logistics companies that will be testing ~30 or so trucks each in their real world fleets for the rest of the year. Pretty much the last step for full major B2B contracts with these companies next year.

Cummins has revealed they've secretly had a prototype program as far along, if not farther than Tesla's.

VW expects to have a whole fleet rolled out by 2022.

All of these are major companies with existing business relationships and the capabilities to ramp up to full scale production to meet demand.

Tesla is grabbing the headlines, but that's because everyone else has been quietly doing the work, making sales, and getting ready to comply with Europe's big push towards electric vehicles.

I credit Tesla for helping to push things along, but if they're actually going to realize any value from their perceived edge, they need to be in production soon. Their window of opportunity in the commercial trucking space is rapidly closing.
 
2018-08-09 07:38:10 AM  

Great_Milenko: Xai: I like how they got the one guy to comment who is both a professor and has never heard of people buying companies with negative cash flows before - hint: It happens all the time, some groups even specialise in it.

Are those groups vulture capitalist outfits like Bain Capital?


Leveraged buyouts do not work that way.  Debt is used to purchase a company with assets. The buyer takes the assets and the purchased company gets the debt. Bain is as evil as the Batman villain for these shenanigans.
Buying a company in debt takes actually money or assets to trade for the outstanding shares.  They only have to buy back the shares of people who do not want to go private.
Companies that go private on their own have enough money or assets to buy back shares. Tesla has no money to do it this way
 
2018-08-09 09:52:43 AM  

Esc7: Yeah people don't want to admit it but beyond the reality distortion field Apple actually had GOOD products in the new millenium, for a good decade and a half at least.


Have you driven a Tesla? They are actually awesome vehicles.

Jensaarai: Volvo trucks...


All really good points. Tesla does have a plan to get their trucks out by next year, which would probably mean 2020 at the earliest. Volvo doesn't exactly have a lion's share of the truck market in the US, and Daimler's trucks aren't supposed to be ready for full scale until at least 2021. None of the proposed fleet has a range over 250. Tesla has a good shot and they have good tech. There's nothing to say they couldn't capture market in that area.
 
2018-08-09 11:09:57 AM  

paulleah: bdub77: madgonad: It is all Reality Distortion Field (borrowed from Jobs).

Apple is currently worth 1 trillion.

Just sayin'.

You can be worth a trillion with you gave 250,000,000,000 in the bank and 70,000,000,000 a year in net profit and growing...

The numbers work.


On an unrelated topic, how is the Apple Car project coming along...

When you discount the Tesla valuation by the $10-$20b it would cost to build a plant and tool up a brand new vehicle (nevermind find a workforce that can efficiently design a world-legal vehicle, bring it to market, and build it), the valuation becomes merely bizarre, not insane.*

It is also worth noting there are two, perhaps three game-changing technologies to come to the EV market in the next five or so years. The company that brings them to market will have a a huge advantage, but needs billions to do it.

*Can you imagine how much an Apple Tesla Corps. car would cost? And the margin they would have in it?
 
2018-08-09 01:32:32 PM  

bdub77: Esc7: Yeah people don't want to admit it but beyond the reality distortion field Apple actually had GOOD products in the new millenium, for a good decade and a half at least.

Have you driven a Tesla? They are actually awesome vehicles.



The vehicle's drivetrain is superb. My friend got a Model 3 a month ago and we went out to dinner near a supercharger (his bay area condo doesn't have a way for him to charge) and he let me drive it. Great torque. Of course I'm still hyperaware of regenerative braking but I'm sure I would eventually not be annoyed at it.

I hate the UI. I really do. I hate the stupid iPad in the dead center and no instrument cluster. I can't understand why they're so hostile to the idea of the instrument cluster. It's a tried and true UI that everyone is trained with. I would understand if Tesla had innovated something better but the iPad in the center is just clumsy and worse. I had to navigate two menus in order to *open* the glove compartment, it doesn't have a manual switch. At that point they're just being fancy no functional.

If I could get that car with a normal functional interior trim I'd be drooling over it.
 
2018-08-09 02:47:48 PM  
I hope all retail longs(even the obnoxious, snarky ones) concluded $420 was a cap on upside and closed out at ~$380. Not nearly enough upside to risk with what's going on. Search for Bloomberg's "The SEC Is Intensifying Its Probe of Tesla"
 
2018-08-09 02:52:06 PM  
Hi Kids, do ya like buy-ins? Ya wanna see me drill big holes through all the world's islands? Ya wanna copy me and do exactly like I did? Try SpaceX and get farked up worse that my life is? Model S is dead weight, tryinna get my tweets straight, but I can't figure out which stock market I want to manipulate.

And Dr. Dre said "Elon, you bizarre, man"
Nuh-uh "Where's your car man? It's halfway to farking Mars, man!
Well, since age 12 I've been nerdy as hell,
Made an online payment system and sold it for 1.5 bil
Now look at all the crazy shiat I'm trying to save;
Puerto Rico, mother earth, and 12 Thai kids in a cave
When my rockets don't explode they deliver the payload
Faster than a model S in ludicrous mode
Yo NASA! (Hey Musk, they ain't your enemies dog!)
I don't give a fark. Look at me: I'm your new god.

My physics teacher wanted to flunk me in junior high,
Joke's on him, I got farking satellites orbiting in the sky
I smacked him in his nuts with a solar panel
Grabbed a Tesla glove box handle
Reached in and biatchslapped him with the owner's manual
Walked into Congress, Chevy tryin' to hate on this,
Got a subsidy and told Henry Ford to drink my piss
South African, running over pedestrians,
In autonomous mode, but I'll blame it on software again.
99% of my net worth is theoretical
Unrealized gains, making biatches go hysterical
I told you'd I'd make an electric car and drive it,
Short squeeze? biatch, I'll take my whole company private.

/stolen from reddit
 
2018-08-09 05:34:16 PM  

Esc7: I hate the UI. I really do. I hate the stupid iPad in the dead center and no instrument cluster. I can't understand why they're so hostile to the idea of the instrument cluster. It's a tried and true UI that everyone is trained with. I would understand if Tesla had innovated something better but the iPad in the center is just clumsy and worse. I had to navigate two menus in order to *open* the glove compartment, it doesn't have a manual switch. At that point they're just being fancy no functional.

If I could get that car with a normal functional interior trim I'd be drooling over it.


Honestly, it took me about 3 days to get used to it. It's not perfect, but it's pretty damn easy. I rarely ever open the glovebox, but I know how to do it.

A lot of Tesla reviews got blown out of proportion about the UI. It's not bad. My biggest issue is that the android app is subpar, and occasionally it doesn't sync up bluetooth very well. Both of those are software issues that will probably ultimately be fixed with an OTA update.

The torque is incredible. I love that it doesn't shift gears, it just goes. And I don't have to fumble around with keys, I just leave the car.
 
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