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(Marketwatch)   Wall Street analysts warn that we may have just awoken the hibernating bear   ( marketwatch.com) divider line
    More: Scary, unemployment rate, Business cycle, Dow Jones Industrial Average, low unemployment rate, Unemployment, lowest unemployment rate, Economics, bear market  
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2779 clicks; posted to Business » on 10 Jul 2018 at 3:28 AM (7 days ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



24 Comments     (+0 »)
 
View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest
 
2018-07-09 07:45:56 PM  
Is it Monday again already.
 
2018-07-09 07:57:54 PM  
Would you like an inverted yield curve to go with that?
 
2018-07-10 12:57:56 AM  
Don't worry, the coming inflation boom will allow investors to keep making money hand over fist even if the stock market runs out of bootleg Viagra pills.
 
2018-07-10 05:25:51 AM  
Time to shear the sheep before you get out of town.
 
2018-07-10 05:28:19 AM  
Now we're going to find out how our financial genius of a president is prepared to handle a real challenge.
We're boned.
 
2018-07-10 05:43:55 AM  
With helpful sing of Aldi
Aldi's have been known for decades of paying way more than minimum wage. Aldi's in Chicago is at around $16-17.
 
2018-07-10 05:59:18 AM  
In the past few decades, republican presidents lead to stock market crashes and a declining economy while Democrats are associated with growth (GDP for example).  Now we have Trump, a special kind of republican who is hell bent on dismantling the global order including trade if those partners don't personally grant him kick backs.  Do we really need some obscure indicator like corrugated cardboard orders?
 
2018-07-10 06:31:16 AM  
Meh. Not retiring for 25 years. Doooooon't caaaaare.
 
2018-07-10 06:49:26 AM  

Rapmaster2000: Meh. Not retiring for 25 years. Doooooon't caaaaare.


If my computer programming gig dries up, I think I'll turn into one of those old guys who does tours at the Museum.

Did I ever tell you about how my Grandfather's plane is in the Smithsonian. Right above the Enola Gay, at the Udvar Hazy center, is a Vought OS2U Kingfisher. That plane (and my Grandfather) flew off of the USS Indiana during WWII. Now back in the day, battleships had a problem. They could shoot for 26 miles. But that could only see 12 miles or so away (even on top of a 100 foot mast) because of the curvature of the Earth...
 
2018-07-10 07:59:48 AM  

Evil Twin Skippy: Rapmaster2000: Meh. Not retiring for 25 years. Doooooon't caaaaare.

If my computer programming gig dries up, I think I'll turn into one of those old guys who does tours at the Museum.



My Plan B is doing stand-up. Six years in, getting some ok paid gigs - recently had my first thousand dollar month. Opened for Doug Stanhope, appeared on a reality show on TLC. 98% of new comics are young, trying it when you're old is a massive advantage - and money audiences are my age, so a 28 year old talking about delivering pizza and kicking his heroin habit doesn't sell.

Six years in. Three paid gigs this week. I figure in a dozen years when I'm ready to retire I can buy a used RV and do a little regional tour. If you can put even 75 butts in seats every show plus however many show up anyway, a venue will pay you $500 to show up . A couple of grand a month plus social security, I can crack wise in to my golden years.

And doing stand-up leads to a lot of acting gigs, despite my lack of talent. Go figure. They pay better than comedy, I get cast pretty steadily as a corrupt cop or a greasy mobster (which a casting agent told me was the same thing).
 
2018-07-10 08:07:04 AM  

Evil Twin Skippy: Did I ever tell you about how my Grandfather's plane is in the Smithsonian. Right above the Enola Gay, at the Udvar Hazy center, is a Vought OS2U Kingfisher.


I saw that.  That museum is outstanding.  I was stuck in Herndon for work one weekend and so I went over there during a snowstorm.  I had the whole museum to myself.
 
2018-07-10 08:18:25 AM  

Catlenfell: Now we're going to find out how our financial genius of a president is prepared to handle a real challenge.
We're boned.


Cut taxes!
 
2018-07-10 09:27:00 AM  
The Obama Recession is back, and blacker than ever!
 
2018-07-10 10:16:28 AM  
Don't care - all my Vanguard funds are in risk level 1 and 2 holdings, and I've got a broker over there with marching orders to convert those into equities heavy investments with just a five minute phone call when the time is right.

I'm going to buy stocks like a woman at a shoe store BOGO sale! Either we'll work our corrupt voodoo to regain all that ground and then some, like we always do, or we'll collapse and money won't mean anything anyway.
 
2018-07-10 11:27:37 AM  
Wow, so we could see the onset of a bear market in as little as 16 months.  Everybody panic.
 
2018-07-10 01:29:01 PM  

Nurglitch: The Obama Recession is back, and blacker than ever!


Economic news is nothing but a meaningless political Rorschach test. If you like the current president, any good news is due to him and any bad news is due to his predecessor. Likewise, if you hate the current president, any bad news is due to him and any good news is due to his predecessor.

[wankingmotion.jpg]
 
2018-07-10 03:02:55 PM  
Is it gonna happen for real this time?

These experts have predicted 30 of the last 2 crashes
 
2018-07-10 03:34:09 PM  

machoprogrammer: Is it gonna happen for real this time?

These experts have predicted 30 of the last 2 crashes


Yes. A recession is definitely coming. I guarantee it.

// When....?
 
2018-07-10 06:12:10 PM  

Cold soup: Either we'll work our corrupt voodoo to regain all that ground and then some, like we always do, or we'll collapse and money won't mean anything anyway.


I've heard a variant of that, set as the stock market was plunging in reaction to the Cuban Missile Crisis. The young broker asks his mentor whether he should go short, or long. The old guy says to go long, because either the situation gets resolved and markets will rebound, or it escalates and they'll be radioactive ash anyway.
 
2018-07-10 06:31:49 PM  
I'm absolutely gobsmacked that the market hasn't rolled over already.  Good thing my puts don't expire for a while.
 
2018-07-10 09:16:33 PM  

Nurglitch: The Obama Recession is back, and blacker than ever!


Is that Donny Drumpf in blackface, or did Donny Drumpf's plans blow up in his face?
 
2018-07-10 09:19:26 PM  
Meh... MarketWatch has been predicting economic doom non-stop for about ten years now.

I guess they need only be right once, but I can tolerate the sound of that boy crying wolf for only so long.
 
6 days ago  

Koldbern: Meh... MarketWatch has been predicting economic doom non-stop for about ten years now.

I guess they need only be right once, but I can tolerate the sound of that boy crying wolf for only so long.


Think of it likes this: Imagine flipping a coin and noticing that you generally get heads 75% of the time. Kinda weird eh? After a while you might be forgiven for hypothesizing that you have a weighted coin. But if it's a fair coin eventually that random run of luck is just a matter of randomness. It's not that you're owed a run of tails, but just that you got lucky. When that run of luck runs out, and you don't know when, you're going to see that proportion of heads even out, approaching 50%. If you got a dollar every time you got heads, and lost a dollar every time you got tails, then it's going to seem like at some point your luck will turn and you'll appear to lose money as your temporary gains return to the mean.

This is why timing the market is a mug's game. It's random, and you'll never be able to figure out how to maximize the profit from your good luck and minimize the profit from your bad luck. It's also why financial doomsayers are right when they predict a run of bust after this current boom, but too vague to be useful in timing the market. What it is useful for is reminding people about what and how they invest their money so that they can live when the randomness of a free-ish market starts restructuring their income.
 
6 days ago  

Nurglitch: Koldbern: Meh... MarketWatch has been predicting economic doom non-stop for about ten years now.

I guess they need only be right once, but I can tolerate the sound of that boy crying wolf for only so long.

Think of it likes this: Imagine flipping a coin and noticing that you generally get heads 75% of the time. Kinda weird eh? After a while you might be forgiven for hypothesizing that you have a weighted coin. But if it's a fair coin eventually that random run of luck is just a matter of randomness. It's not that you're owed a run of tails, but just that you got lucky. When that run of luck runs out, and you don't know when, you're going to see that proportion of heads even out, approaching 50%. If you got a dollar every time you got heads, and lost a dollar every time you got tails, then it's going to seem like at some point your luck will turn and you'll appear to lose money as your temporary gains return to the mean.

This is why timing the market is a mug's game. It's random, and you'll never be able to figure out how to maximize the profit from your good luck and minimize the profit from your bad luck. It's also why financial doomsayers are right when they predict a run of bust after this current boom, but too vague to be useful in timing the market. What it is useful for is reminding people about what and how they invest their money so that they can live when the randomness of a free-ish market starts restructuring their income.


Yep. Anything you already know, the market already knows. Market timers who act like Wall Street doesn't know that Trump is president always make me chuckle.
 
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