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(Science Alert)   Looking to the future? According to science, here's what will happen 10,000 years from now. Spoiler alert - "there's a 95 percent chance that humans will have died out in 10,000 years"   ( sciencealert.com) divider line
    More: Interesting, cold dark Universe, Prediction, Wilkes subglacial basin, vastly different shorelines, gigantic ice block, entire East Antarctic, supergiant star Antares, continuous ice sheet  
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2125 clicks; posted to Geek » on 01 Jan 2018 at 8:08 AM (6 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2018-01-01 07:12:40 AM  
img.fark.netView Full Size
 
2018-01-01 08:11:14 AM  
I'm not human and I am immortal. Your pathetic calculations do not apply to me.
 
2018-01-01 08:21:22 AM  
Yeah, we knew that.
Zager And Evans - In The Year 2525
Youtube izQB2-Kmiic
 
2018-01-01 08:23:45 AM  
But I haven't finished building my vault yet!
 
2018-01-01 08:32:21 AM  
If our mastery and development of technology continues (aided by advanced AI), then making any predictions beyond 2050 or so is pretty pointless. Whether or not I'm around to see it, I'm looking forward to nano scale manufacturing.  Once that's a reality, the future is beyond prediction.
 
2018-01-01 08:35:53 AM  
tfa: ... in 10,000 years there will be no regional genetic variation between humans. That's not to say people will all look the same, but whatever genetic differences there are - such as blue eyes versus brown - will be evenly distributed across the planet.

In 10,000 years, the only humans that look like current-day humans will live out their lives in zoos.
 
2018-01-01 08:38:12 AM  
We as a species cannot even accurately predict things within our control, like the stock market or presidential elections or the popularity of dubstep.  Making grand generalizations about distant futures is an exercise in mental masturbation.
 
2018-01-01 08:40:12 AM  
10k years? Meh, we're still on schedule to end the civilization in 2072, as the Limits to Growth report predicted.
 
2018-01-01 08:41:21 AM  
A 5% chance of not blowing up the planet before then?
 
2018-01-01 08:41:57 AM  
Not soon enough.
 
2018-01-01 08:45:49 AM  

NewportBarGuy: [img.fark.net image 425x187]


Hey buddy, that disease is keeping you powered. Somehow.
 
2018-01-01 08:46:35 AM  

Tyrone Slothrop: Not soon enough.


S h u t u p , S o p h i a
 
2018-01-01 08:47:46 AM  

LewDux: Tyrone Slothrop: Not soon enough.


O1O1OO11 O11O1OOO O111O1O1 O111O1OO OO1OOOOO O111O1O1 O111OOOO OO1O11OO OO1OOOOO O1O1OO11 O11O1111 O111OOOO O11O1OOO O11O1OO1 O11OOOO1
 
2018-01-01 08:48:20 AM  
 
2018-01-01 08:59:07 AM  

pup.socket: 10k years? Meh, we're still on schedule to end the civilization in 2072, as the Limits to Growth report predicted.


This. I wish I could get paid to mentally masturbate all over the page and call myself a futurist.

No, wait, I don't wish that because I'd rather do something useful with my time.
 
2018-01-01 09:04:13 AM  
Given that we've already started tinkering with our own genomes, aka we've introduced a new source of trait variation to our species, if we're extinct in 10k years it's probably going to have been a speciation event rather than "dying out" as such.  Like how the therapods survived just fine but are birds now, but significantly faster in keeping with the more rapid rate of trait addition artificial genetic engineering provides.

// The fact that this would have been futurist babble 20 years ago and now it's just basically looking at how an existing tech will likely be applied is one of those "psych!  here's your flying car, mothefarker!" moments that remind us that we're already in the glorious science-fiction future the late 20th century was always trying to envision.
 
2018-01-01 09:04:14 AM  

eiger: pup.socket: 10k years? Meh, we're still on schedule to end the civilization in 2072, as the Limits to Growth report predicted.

This. I wish I could get paid to mentally masturbate all over the page and call myself a futurist.

No, wait, I don't wish that because I'd rather do something useful with my time.


Totalfarker-like typing detected
 
2018-01-01 09:22:01 AM  
Sgygus:
In 10,000 years, the only humans that look like current-day humans will live out their lives in zoos.

.....chained up, caged, with our mating rituals on display for a creepy audience?
 
2018-01-01 09:39:13 AM  

Satampra Zeiros: Sgygus:
In 10,000 years, the only humans that look like current-day humans will live out their lives in zoos.

.....chained up, caged, with our mating rituals on display for a creepy audience?

img.fark.netView Full Size

Works for me.
 
2018-01-01 09:55:45 AM  

Man_Without_A_Hat: the popularity of dubstep.


Truly one of our great feats of de-evolution.
 
2018-01-01 10:01:40 AM  

Exluddite: Man_Without_A_Hat: the popularity of dubstep.

Truly one of our great feats of de-evolution.


img.fark.netView Full Size
 
2018-01-01 10:01:56 AM  
^doorstep
 
2018-01-01 10:05:53 AM  
Sure, but let me show you the odds of us not getting to where we are now.
 
2018-01-01 10:07:53 AM  

Exluddite: Man_Without_A_Hat: the popularity of dubstep.

Truly one of our great feats of de-evolution.


quickmeme.comView Full Size
 
2018-01-01 10:08:07 AM  
10,000?  We'll be lucky to make it to 2100.
 
2018-01-01 10:09:02 AM  
pictures.abebooks.comView Full Size
 
2018-01-01 10:47:57 AM  
Singularity now
 
2018-01-01 10:49:59 AM  
And the world will be a better place.
 
2018-01-01 10:50:41 AM  

STDMan69: A 5% chance of not blowing up the planet before then?


No.  It's a stupid argument based on probabilities, it says nothing about what the mechanism is.  The basic concept is that we probably are normal.  Line up all the humans that have ever lived and ever will live--we are probably somewhere in the middle, not at either end.  If we really are near the middle then the human race will die out.

However, this assumes a random observer--but it's not.  Rather, it's the first person to think of the idea as applied to the lifespan of the human race.
 
2018-01-01 11:01:55 AM  

Loren: STDMan69: A 5% chance of not blowing up the planet before then?

No.  It's a stupid argument based on probabilities, it says nothing about what the mechanism is.  The basic concept is that we probably are normal.  Line up all the humans that have ever lived and ever will live--we are probably somewhere in the middle, not at either end.  If we really are near the middle then the human race will die out.

However, this assumes a random observer--but it's not.  Rather, it's the first person to think of the idea as applied to the lifespan of the human race.


If someone had thought of the same argument in 1500 BC they could have come to the same conclusions.
 
2018-01-01 11:10:18 AM  
Sgygus:
In 10,000 years, the only humans that look like current-day humans will live out their lives in zoos.

I saw that Twilight Zone episode too!

Bonus, a young Roddy McDowell.
 
2018-01-01 11:17:12 AM  
If you dabble in deep time, there's arguments for putting either a 0 or a 1 in front of the number on the calendar. 0 because there's a lot of future, or 1 to recognize we've got a lot of history since Göbekli Tepe. Either way, you avoid a decamillenia bug. Just depends if you're wanting the systems to work 98k years or 88k years before they have the counters roll back to zero.
 
2018-01-01 11:32:18 AM  

pup.socket: 10k years? Meh, we're still on schedule to end the civilization in 2072, as the Limits to Growth report predicted.


So? Civilization has ended many times. Dark ages happen frequently in history, yet humanity goes on. We're no doubt in for a doozy with the unique circumstances of modern industrial civilization (very high population, industrial tools, industrial energy, etc.). However, it seems unlikely to me that humans will die out completely.

10k years is actually not an overwhelming portion of the human experience - humans have been around for roughly 300k years. So I don't think it's entirely vain to speculate on what humanity will be up to in that many years.
 
2018-01-01 11:37:06 AM  

pup.socket: 10k years? Meh, we're still on schedule to end the civilization in 2072, as the Limits to Growth report predicted.


Except everything in that "report" was wrong.  Every assumption has not borne out.  While the population of the world has been expanding, the amount of energy available per capita, the amount of food per capita, and productivity per capita has been growing.  Every doomsday fertility prediction has been wrong.

Even one of the original authors said they farked up and completely borked the fertility model.  He's now saying that population will peak far earlier (2040s at just over 8 Billion people) and with significantly less impact than most models suggest.  Personally I think he's over compensating for being so wrong the first time.

That's not to say there aren't problems.  Just the "run out of resources" meme is total BS.  The problems that will be faced are "soft problems" such as local political factors, inter-state warfare, climatic change, migration issues and the continued high levels of stupidity around the world.
 
2018-01-01 11:43:39 AM  
Civilization? Ending? Again? Who let Ghandi near the red button this time?
 
2018-01-01 12:55:48 PM  
 
2018-01-01 01:44:33 PM  

wildcardjack: If you dabble in deep time, there's arguments for putting either a 0 or a 1 in front of the number on the calendar. 0 because there's a lot of future, or 1 to recognize we've got a lot of history since Göbekli Tepe. Either way, you avoid a decamillenia bug. Just depends if you're wanting the systems to work 98k years or 88k years before they have the counters roll back to zero.


http://longnow.org
 
2018-01-01 02:50:43 PM  

pheed: If our mastery and development of technology continues (aided by advanced AI), then making any predictions beyond 2050 or so is pretty pointless. Whether or not I'm around to see it, I'm looking forward to nano scale manufacturing.  Once that's a reality, the future is beyond prediction.


I agree, don't forget the advent of genetics. Once we master genetics we should be able to increase our memory capacity, change our cells to interface with machines, live in different environments like growing gills to live under water, maybe even introduce photosynthesis in our skin for energy production instead of eating food.
 
2018-01-01 03:01:13 PM  

LewDux: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fJ0PJ​9​dF3uI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OmzEkh​-Ywm4


Damn, Lew you are always introducing me to new crazy stuff! I've got a spare kidney if you ever need one.
 
2018-01-01 03:03:28 PM  

pheed: If our mastery and development of technology continues (aided by advanced AI), then making any predictions beyond 2050 or so is pretty pointless. Whether or not I'm around to see it, I'm looking forward to nano scale manufacturing.  Once that's a reality, the future is beyond prediction.


By then all the rage will be picoscale manufacturing.  Nanoscale will be soooo 10,000 years ago.
 
2018-01-01 04:08:05 PM  
A significant portion if that chance is devoted to evolving to a new species... I hope.
 
2018-01-01 05:18:17 PM  
Pfft. There's a 95% chance we won't make it to 2030...
 
2018-01-01 08:43:02 PM  

Man_Without_A_Hat: We as a species cannot even accurately predict things within our control, like the stock market or presidential elections or the popularity of dubstep.  Making grand generalizations about distant futures is an exercise in mental masturbation.


I like masturbating.
 
2018-01-01 09:39:44 PM  

Jim_Callahan: // The fact that this would have been futurist babble 20 years ago and now it's just basically looking at how an existing tech will likely be applied is one of those "psych!  here's your flying car, mothefarker!" moments that remind us that we're already in the glorious science-fiction future the late 20th century was always trying to envision.


Except it's not glorious.

What we got was the bastardized, Chinese knockoff version of the sci-fi future we wanted.

It probably says "Seance Friction Feature" on the label in the same font.
 
2018-01-01 10:36:59 PM  
img.fark.netView Full Size
 
2018-01-01 11:19:12 PM  

Cry Hentai And Release The Tentacles of War!: Jim_Callahan: // The fact that this would have been futurist babble 20 years ago and now it's just basically looking at how an existing tech will likely be applied is one of those "psych!  here's your flying car, mothefarker!" moments that remind us that we're already in the glorious science-fiction future the late 20th century was always trying to envision.

Except it's not glorious.

What we got was the bastardized, Chinese knockoff version of the sci-fi future we wanted.

It probably says "Seance Friction Feature" on the label in the same font.


We've effectively invented the Akashic records and given every human on the planet a continuous link to them accessible at all times.  We're one dude accidentally learning to teleport away from The Stars My Destination, man.
 
2018-01-02 01:37:44 AM  

Jim_Callahan: Cry Hentai And Release The Tentacles of War!: Jim_Callahan: // The fact that this would have been futurist babble 20 years ago and now it's just basically looking at how an existing tech will likely be applied is one of those "psych!  here's your flying car, mothefarker!" moments that remind us that we're already in the glorious science-fiction future the late 20th century was always trying to envision.

Except it's not glorious.

What we got was the bastardized, Chinese knockoff version of the sci-fi future we wanted.

It probably says "Seance Friction Feature" on the label in the same font.

We've effectively invented the Akashic records and given every human on the planet a continuous link to them accessible at all times.  We're one dude accidentally learning to teleport away from The Stars My Destination, man.


And what do we use it for? Porn, video games, and cyberstalking. For every one person that uses the internet to educate themselves, there are a thousand of us who are actively making ourselves dumber.

And worse, it's enabling these idiots to organize. We're accelerating the polarization of our society and making a handful of billionaires. It's a demagogue's wet dream. Meanwhile China is gearing up to turn the internet into an oppression tool Orwell could only imagine. Access to information was supposed to set us free. Instead it's given us just enough rope to hang ourselves.

And we still don't have the cool versions of any of the cool stuff.
Space travel? No, just some remote control cars on Mars.
Holodecks? No, just a dorky helmet and a spandex bodysock.
Rayguns? Only on a DoD budget.
Hot women in skin-tight spacesuits? That's badthink now and you should be ashamed of wanting it.
Flying cars? No, but we've got self-driving ones that will use the attention you're no longer paying to the road to shove ads in your face.
Robots? Well, the military assassinates people with them and I have this weird frisbee that sucks at cleaning my house.

We got a black president, at least, but instead of kicking ass and saving the world from a doomsday scenario he just kind of muddled through for two terms because the opposition couldn't get its act together.

This is a C+ future at best.
 
2018-01-02 06:16:45 AM  
Don't ever tell me the odds
 
2018-01-02 06:40:09 AM  

Cry Hentai And Release The Tentacles of War!: Jim_Callahan: Cry Hentai And Release The Tentacles of War!: Jim_Callahan: // The fact that this would have been futurist babble 20 years ago and now it's just basically looking at how an existing tech will likely be applied is one of those "psych!  here's your flying car, mothefarker!" moments that remind us that we're already in the glorious science-fiction future the late 20th century was always trying to envision.

Except it's not glorious.

What we got was the bastardized, Chinese knockoff version of the sci-fi future we wanted.

It probably says "Seance Friction Feature" on the label in the same font.

We've effectively invented the Akashic records and given every human on the planet a continuous link to them accessible at all times.  We're one dude accidentally learning to teleport away from The Stars My Destination, man.

And what do we use it for? Porn, video games, and cyberstalking. For every one person that uses the internet to educate themselves, there are a thousand of us who are actively making ourselves dumber.

And worse, it's enabling these idiots to organize. We're accelerating the polarization of our society and making a handful of billionaires. It's a demagogue's wet dream. Meanwhile China is gearing up to turn the internet into an oppression tool Orwell could only imagine. Access to information was supposed to set us free. Instead it's given us just enough rope to hang ourselves.

And we still don't have the cool versions of any of the cool stuff.
Space travel? No, just some remote control cars on Mars.
Holodecks? No, just a dorky helmet and a spandex bodysock.
Rayguns? Only on a DoD budget.
Hot women in skin-tight spacesuits? That's badthink now and you should be ashamed of wanting it.
Flying cars? No, but we've got self-driving ones that will use the attention you're no longer paying to the road to shove ads in your face.
Robots? Well, the military assassinates people with them and I have this weird frisbee that sucks at cleaning my house.

We got a black president, at least, but instead of kicking ass and saving the world from a doomsday scenario he just kind of muddled through for two terms because the opposition couldn't get its act together.

This is a C+ future at best.


My Bradbury and Asimov days have not prepared me for this half assed future either.
 
2018-01-02 07:20:14 AM  
Magnetic pole reversals happen.Axial tilt reversals do not.
 
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