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(Daily Express)   Hurricane Ophelia set to give the UK a weather Brexit (possible nsfw content on page)   ( express.co.uk) divider line
    More: Scary, Tropical cyclone, Wind, Cyclone, European windstorm, Weather  
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3502 clicks; posted to Main » on 12 Oct 2017 at 1:40 PM (7 days ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2017-10-12 08:25:01 AM  
When it passes north of the Azores, it becomes a spinny-windy-blow, not a hurricane.
 
2017-10-12 08:37:08 AM  
Maybe it will blow some of those extra letters out of you farking words, you snoots!

/Just kidding
//Good luck
///Not kidding about aluminum
////THERE'S ONLY ONE GODDAMN "I"
 
2017-10-12 11:22:18 AM  
11am. From the NHC:

Ophelia's satellite presentation consists of a distinct eye in infrared imagery surrounded by a ring of cloud tops of -50C to -70C. The initial intensity of 80 kt is based on a blend of the latest subjective and objective Dvorak estimates, which range from 77 to 95 kt...the cyclone should begin extratropical transition as it interacts with a potent mid-latitude trough moving eastward across the north Atlantic. This baroclinic interaction should maintain Ophelia at hurricane intensity through 96 hours...

Regardless of the exact track, post-tropical Ophelia is likely to bring some impacts to Ireland and the United Kingdom as a powerful extratropical cyclone in 4 to 5 days.


Chance of gale-force winds for Ponta Delgada in the Azores up to 40 percent, most likely Saturday (hurricane-force winds four percent).

It's really frustrating to have no numerical probability data for points in Europe.

Met Eireann this morning issued a "national weather advisory," essentially a hurricane watch:

A combination of a vigorous Atlantic weather system and the remnants of Hurricane Ophelia will pass close to Ireland on Monday, and has the potential to be a high-impact event in parts of the country. There is a lot of uncertainty as to the exact evolution and movement of this weather system during the coming four days, but storm-force winds, outbreaks of heavy rain, and very high seas are threatened. Met Eireann will maintain a close watch on the evolution and issue further advisories and warnings as these are warranted.

Gale-force wind probability chart:

img.fark.net
Hurricane-force winds can no longer be ruled out in the west of Ireland.
www.nhc.noaa.gov
 
2017-10-12 11:32:32 AM  

Tr0mBoNe: When it passes north of the Azores, it becomes a spinny-windy-blow, not a hurricane.


Extra-tropical cyclone. Don't laugh too loud---Atlantic hurricanes slouching towards Europe to die have done their fair share of damage and taken their human toll in Ireland.

The only Atlantic hurricane I can claim to have "survived" was Hurricane Charley in 1986. Forgotten in the US, where it did only minor damage in North Carolina, Charley killed five people in Ireland (four by drowning, one from a heart attack during evacuation) and resulted in the worst flooding in Dublin's history---even though by the time Charley reached Ireland he had maximum wind speeds of only 50mph.

(I was ten years old. My family lived well inland, and nobody I knew well was hurt or made homeless.)

Here's an RTE News report from the time on Charley's impact in Ireland.
 
2017-10-12 11:50:05 AM  

MikeyFuccon: Tr0mBoNe: When it passes north of the Azores, it becomes a spinny-windy-blow, not a hurricane.

Extra-tropical cyclone. Don't laugh too loud---Atlantic hurricanes slouching towards Europe to die have done their fair share of damage and taken their human toll in Ireland.

The only Atlantic hurricane I can claim to have "survived" was Hurricane Charley in 1986. Forgotten in the US, where it did only minor damage in North Carolina, Charley killed five people in Ireland (four by drowning, one from a heart attack during evacuation) and resulted in the worst flooding in Dublin's history---even though by the time Charley reached Ireland he had maximum wind speeds of only 50mph.

(I was ten years old. My family lived well inland, and nobody I knew well was hurt or made homeless.)

Here's an RTE News report from the time on Charley's impact in Ireland.


All those thatched roofs and quaint horse drawn carriages don't stand a chance.

/jk, stay safe
 
2017-10-12 01:47:40 PM  
Storm is expected to reach Category Bollocks (wind speeds great enough to result in your bangers and mash taking flight).
 
2017-10-12 01:52:50 PM  

Tr0mBoNe: When it passes north of the Azores, it becomes a spinny-windy-blow, not a hurricane.


Would a spinny-windy-blow be enough to cause the Canary Island to sing with a megatsunami?
 
2017-10-12 01:55:27 PM  
"Gee, a hurricane is coming. Maybe we should think about bringing the outdoor furniture inside. Nah. Let's watch it swirl around the patio instead."
 
2017-10-12 01:56:08 PM  
Boards on the window, mail by the door
Why would anybody leave so quickly for?  Ophelia

The old neighborhood just ain't the same
Nobody knows just what became, of Ophelia

They got your number, scared and running
I'm still waiting for the second coming.  Ophelia

/The Band, still relevant
 
2017-10-12 01:56:22 PM  
MikeyFuccon:
Gale-force wind probability chart:

[img.fark.net image 850x699]
Hurricane-force winds can no longer be ruled out in the west of Ireland.
[www.nhc.noaa.gov image 850x699]


img.fark.net
 
2017-10-12 01:57:27 PM  

born_yesterday: Maybe it will blow some of those extra letters out of you farking words, you snoots!

/Just kidding
//Good luck
///Not kidding about aluminum
////THERE'S ONLY ONE GODDAMN "I"


The anger has caused a bright red colour to your face.
 
2017-10-12 01:59:17 PM  
There will be serious surfing in Lahinch this weekend.
 
2017-10-12 02:00:41 PM  
It does seem that former colonies have been getting hit pretty hard with hurricanes this year.  Could one of you British farkers check on that queen of your and make sure she isn't doing anything nefarious?
 
2017-10-12 02:05:50 PM  

GJEW: It does seem that former colonies have been getting hit pretty hard with hurricanes this year.  Could one of you British farkers check on that queen of your and make sure she isn't doing anything nefarious?


You're barking up the wrong tree...

i.pinimg.com
 
2017-10-12 02:11:06 PM  
A lot depends on building codes.  Ireland isn't used to hurricanes, and so doesn't have an expectation of hurricane winds built into its building standards.
 
2017-10-12 02:12:11 PM  
Tropical Storm Grace which hit Britain 2009 and ex-hurricane Gordon which struck in 2006.

What, Grace and Gordon divorced?
 
2017-10-12 02:16:05 PM  

Cormee: There will be serious surfing in Lahinch this weekend.


Incidentally, Irish media seem remarkably blase about the whole thing so far.

In the States local TV would be talking about nothing else, and any governor worth his bill-signing pen would be advising people in Ophelia's probable path to consider evacuating and/or "rushing storm preparations to completion."

RTE has more on the front page about California wildfires than Ophelia. Irish Times is leading with an op-ed on abortion. Both have articles discussing Census data reporting the increase in atheism in Ireland.

Then again, the worst wind is supposed to hit the west of Ireland right now, not the important people living in Dublin 4, so.

Odd how the Daily Kipper went with Ophelia even though England and Wales will be spared the worst of her wind.
 
2017-10-12 02:17:59 PM  
90mph?

I wouldn't even get out of work for that, or cancel school for the kids
 
2017-10-12 02:20:48 PM  
I have to wonder... why does subby keep seeing nsfw content on UK pages?
 
2017-10-12 02:25:46 PM  

theresnothinglft: I have to wonder... why does subby keep seeing nsfw content on UK pages?


Perhaps google ads and other similar services tracks user activity, and tries to deliver content related to the user's interests.
 
2017-10-12 02:26:24 PM  
Well, good.  It's about time.
 
2017-10-12 02:28:51 PM  

MikeyFuccon: Cormee: There will be serious surfing in Lahinch this weekend.

Incidentally, Irish media seem remarkably blase about the whole thing so far.

In the States local TV would be talking about nothing else, and any governor worth his bill-signing pen would be advising people in Ophelia's probable path to consider evacuating and/or "rushing storm preparations to completion."

RTE has more on the front page about California wildfires than Ophelia. Irish Times is leading with an op-ed on abortion. Both have articles discussing Census data reporting the increase in atheism in Ireland.

Then again, the worst wind is supposed to hit the west of Ireland right now, not the important people living in Dublin 4, so.

Odd how the Daily Kipper went with Ophelia even though England and Wales will be spared the worst of her wind.


Yeah, the first I heard of it was today. I'd give my eye teeth to sit it out in some cosy bar in the West of Ireland, overlooking the Atlantic. There are some great shots of Lahinch when the last big storm hit, waves crashing against the promenade, the height of two storey houses.
 
2017-10-12 02:30:40 PM  

Destructor: Tr0mBoNe: When it passes north of the Azores, it becomes a spinny-windy-blow, not a hurricane.

Would a spinny-windy-blow be enough to cause the Canary Island to sing with a megatsunami?


Username checks out.

Nobody can even agree if there's a threat there. Some old geologists made a bunch of worst case guesses and the Disastercovery channel ran with it.
 
2017-10-12 02:32:33 PM  

SomeAmerican: A lot depends on building codes.  Ireland isn't used to hurricanes, and so doesn't have an expectation of hurricane winds built into its building standards.


Tell me you're kidding. Our houses are made of brick, not wood. They tend to last centuries instead of decades. Structural damage tends to be quite minimal, compared to the USA.
 
2017-10-12 02:33:02 PM  

Tr0mBoNe: When it passes north of the Azores, it becomes a spinny-windy-blow, not a hurricane.


A hurricane?  ...hurricane? Pft... if you could only see the face I'm making right now.
 
2017-10-12 02:34:59 PM  
img.fark.net
/oblig
 
2017-10-12 02:37:20 PM  
Why is the American National Hurricane Center tracking a BRITISH hurricane?

I mean, we fought a war to get those limey bastards out of the country.  Now this.

Stop wasting AMERICAN tax dollars tracking BRITISH hurricanes!
 
2017-10-12 02:40:36 PM  
They don't seem as certain as the would like about the path.

Through the first 48 hours, the new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. Later in the forecast period, there remains a fair bit of east/west spread in the track of Ophelia near Ireland and the United Kingdom, which isn't usual at these time ranges.
 
2017-10-12 02:42:48 PM  
Hurricanes in Ireland.

Wow.

But tell me again how climate change is a myth.
 
2017-10-12 02:44:37 PM  

Cdr.Murdock: Why is the American National Hurricane Center tracking a BRITISH hurricane?

I mean, we fought a war to get those limey bastards out of the country.  Now this.

Stop wasting AMERICAN tax dollars tracking BRITISH hurricanes!


Think that's bad? Cuba has been listening to our super secret public hurricane warning broadcasts for decades!
 
2017-10-12 02:48:04 PM  

Cormee: SomeAmerican: A lot depends on building codes.  Ireland isn't used to hurricanes, and so doesn't have an expectation of hurricane winds built into its building standards.

Tell me you're kidding. Our houses are made of brick, not wood. They tend to last centuries instead of decades. Structural damage tends to be quite minimal, compared to the USA.


American houses are built from eagle tears and MAGA
 
2017-10-12 02:48:43 PM  
Don't worry, Ophelia dies in the third act.
 
2017-10-12 02:53:56 PM  

SwiftFox: Cdr.Murdock: Why is the American National Hurricane Center tracking a BRITISH hurricane?

I mean, we fought a war to get those limey bastards out of the country.  Now this.

Stop wasting AMERICAN tax dollars tracking BRITISH hurricanes!

Think that's bad? Cuba has been listening to our super secret public hurricane warning broadcasts for decades!


Now the Cuban's are in on it, too?

img.fark.net

Jesucristo!!
 
2017-10-12 03:01:17 PM  

DjangoStonereaver: Hurricanes in Ireland.

Wow.

But tell me again how climate change is a myth.


Your bait, it's LOW ENERGY!
 
2017-10-12 03:05:37 PM  

Cdr.Murdock: Why is the American National Hurricane Center tracking a BRITISH hurricane?

I mean, we fought a war to get those limey bastards out of the country.  Now this.

Stop wasting AMERICAN tax dollars tracking BRITISH hurricanes!


For what it's worth, here's the Met Office on Ophelia, adapted from their "weather warning" (basically a tropical storm watch:)

Regions and local authorities affected: Highlands & Eilean Siar; North West England; Northern Ireland; SW Scotland, Lothian Borders; South West England; Strathclyde; Wales
 Very strong winds are forecast to affect western parts of the UK during Monday. Southerly winds are most likely to gust between 50 and 60 mph across much of the warning area with perhaps gusts of 70 to 80 mph in more exposed parts. These strong winds are forecast in association with the northward track of ex-Ophelia across or near to the west of the British Isles. Heavy rain is also possible in association with this system with northwestern UK most prone at this stage.

...Some delays to road, rail, air and ferry transport are possible. There is a slight chance that power cuts may occur, with the potential to affect other services, such as mobile phone coverage. There is a slight chance of some damage to buildings, such as tiles from roofs. It is possible that some coastal routes, sea fronts and coastal communities will be affected by spray and/or large waves. There is also a small chance that injuries could occur from beach material being thrown onto sea fronts.
 
2017-10-12 03:12:10 PM  
Tropical storms 800 miles north of Minneapolis, check.

I don't like the showrunner for the last few seasons of Weather. No respect for canon, and every episode is pitched like a goddamn sweeps-week "event."
 
2017-10-12 03:20:42 PM  
Friend of mine is in Dublin for a conference, supposed to be flying back home to Leeds on Tuesday I think...
:/
 
2017-10-12 03:29:43 PM  

Cormee: SomeAmerican: A lot depends on building codes.  Ireland isn't used to hurricanes, and so doesn't have an expectation of hurricane winds built into its building standards.

Tell me you're kidding. Our houses are made of brick, not wood. They tend to last centuries instead of decades. Structural damage tends to be quite minimal, compared to the USA.


And you think brick houses are good against hurricanes?  That proves my point... here's a video of a brick structure being ripped to shreds by a simulated cat 2.

In hurricane areas, you want reinforced concrete with hurricane ties on your roof.  That can survive a cat 4.  It's also what I've got, and it did survive a cat 4, fortunately.
 
2017-10-12 03:36:39 PM  

I'm no expert but...: Cormee: SomeAmerican: A lot depends on building codes.  Ireland isn't used to hurricanes, and so doesn't have an expectation of hurricane winds built into its building standards.

Tell me you're kidding. Our houses are made of brick, not wood. They tend to last centuries instead of decades. Structural damage tends to be quite minimal, compared to the USA.

American houses are built from eagle tears and MAGA


The building codes in America are actually very good, and are specific to the types of threats that the region will experience.  But... I do have to say while architects follow the codes when producing blueprints, contractors often deviate from the plans to line their pockets.

My dad is an architect, and it seems like every hotel he designs follows the same pattern... he produces the plan, gets called to sign off on the construction, finds the contractor didn't follow the plan, gets pressured to sign off on it anyway, refuses and forces the contractor to do rework, gets sued, wins :/
 
2017-10-12 03:39:04 PM  

SomeAmerican: Cormee: SomeAmerican: A lot depends on building codes.  Ireland isn't used to hurricanes, and so doesn't have an expectation of hurricane winds built into its building standards.

Tell me you're kidding. Our houses are made of brick, not wood. They tend to last centuries instead of decades. Structural damage tends to be quite minimal, compared to the USA.

And you think brick houses are good against hurricanes?  That proves my point... here's a video of a brick structure being ripped to shreds by a simulated cat 2.

In hurricane areas, you want reinforced concrete with hurricane ties on your roof.  That can survive a cat 4.  It's also what I've got, and it did survive a cat 4, fortunately.


My house is 160 years old, and has survived many, hurricanes. And regardless of how a brick house fares against a reinforced concrete structure, in my earlier post I was comparing them to wooden structures. And I stick by my point, brick houses fare better against hurricanes, than wooden.
 
2017-10-12 03:42:21 PM  

Cdr.Murdock: SwiftFox: Cdr.Murdock: Why is the American National Hurricane Center tracking a BRITISH hurricane?

I mean, we fought a war to get those limey bastards out of the country.  Now this.

Stop wasting AMERICAN tax dollars tracking BRITISH hurricanes!

Think that's bad? Cuba has been listening to our super secret public hurricane warning broadcasts for decades!

Now the Cuban's are in on it, too?

[img.fark.net image 544x408]

Jesucristo!!


Thread jack

Kenny Kramer is playing our local theatre tonight.

/thread jack
 
2017-10-12 03:49:54 PM  

SomeAmerican: Cormee: SomeAmerican: A lot depends on building codes.  Ireland isn't used to hurricanes, and so doesn't have an expectation of hurricane winds built into its building standards.

Tell me you're kidding. Our houses are made of brick, not wood. They tend to last centuries instead of decades. Structural damage tends to be quite minimal, compared to the USA.

And you think brick houses are good against hurricanes?  That proves my point... here's a video of a brick structure being ripped to shreds by a simulated cat 2.

In hurricane areas, you want reinforced concrete with hurricane ties on your roof.  That can survive a cat 4.  It's also what I've got, and it did survive a cat 4, fortunately.


Just looked at that video, are you honestly suggesting any house anywhere is built like that? A single wall of cinder blocks? Possibly in some shanty town in Africa, nowhere with any sort of regulations though.
 
2017-10-12 03:54:39 PM  

Cormee: SomeAmerican: Cormee: SomeAmerican: A lot depends on building codes.  Ireland isn't used to hurricanes, and so doesn't have an expectation of hurricane winds built into its building standards.

Tell me you're kidding. Our houses are made of brick, not wood. They tend to last centuries instead of decades. Structural damage tends to be quite minimal, compared to the USA.

And you think brick houses are good against hurricanes?  That proves my point... here's a video of a brick structure being ripped to shreds by a simulated cat 2.

In hurricane areas, you want reinforced concrete with hurricane ties on your roof.  That can survive a cat 4.  It's also what I've got, and it did survive a cat 4, fortunately.

My house is 160 years old, and has survived many, hurricanes. And regardless of how a brick house fares against a reinforced concrete structure, in my earlier post I was comparing them to wooden structures. And I stick by my point, brick houses fare better against hurricanes, than wooden.


Oh yeah, brick is better than wood for wind, definitely.

But if you want to survive a major hurricane (cat 3+), you need reinforced concrete.  Also, the construction of the roof is critical... without wind ties it will come to pieces.  And you need to be on a concrete slab on pilings, if you don't want to crack your foundation.

Which gets back to my point... Irish building codes are not designed with hurricanes in mind.  But why would they be?  I think the most Ireland gets is cat 1s, which are like a gentle Florida breeze :)
 
2017-10-12 03:58:57 PM  

SomeAmerican: .

In hurricane areas, you want reinforced concrete with hurricane ties on your roof.  That can survive a cat 4.  It's also what I've got, and it did survive a cat 4, fortunately.


Which storm? Not Irma, I presume; she was already only a Cat 2 by the time she reached Naples.
 
2017-10-12 04:05:11 PM  

Cormee: Just looked at that video, are you honestly suggesting any house anywhere is built like that? A single wall of cinder blocks? Possibly in some shanty town in Africa, nowhere with any sort of regulations though.


Here is a picture of a brick house after Irma, in Tampa Bay, which only took a glancing blow fortunately.

Just being brick just isn't enough.  Not for a major hurricane.  I've got nothing against brick, mind you.  I lived in a brick house in Maryland, which was great for Northeasters and the winter climate.

But I wouldn't live in a brick house in a hurricane prone area.  No way.

img.fark.net
 
2017-10-12 04:15:48 PM  

MikeyFuccon: SomeAmerican: .

In hurricane areas, you want reinforced concrete with hurricane ties on your roof.  That can survive a cat 4.  It's also what I've got, and it did survive a cat 4, fortunately.

Which storm? Not Irma, I presume; she was already only a Cat 2 by the time she reached Naples.


My main house is in Tierra Verde, FL, but I also have a place in St. Thomas which was tag teamed by Irma and Maria :/

It survived, fortunately, although I haven't been back to see it yet.  I hear the coral reefs came through intact too so I'll probably go down in December, after everything has been cleaned up.
 
2017-10-12 04:21:30 PM  
SomeAmerican:

Which gets back to my point... Irish building codes are not designed with hurricanes in mind.  But why would they be?  I think the most Ireland gets is cat 1s, which are like a gentle Florida breeze :)

I'll take your word for it :)

Charley, the storm I remember, only had max wind speeds of 50mph when he arrived in Ireland. Debbie, in 1961, only sustained wind speeds at 78mph tops as she passed, and that only in a few places.

Researchers at Met Eireann estimated some years ago (report here) that even the infamous "Big Wind" of 1839 only sustained winds of about 80mph, tops, and that again only on the north coast (the low passed to the north of Ireland).

So if Ophelia's still packing 75mph by Monday, she'll have a fighting chance of doing Uncle Charley and Great Aunt Debbie proud.
 
2017-10-12 04:28:30 PM  

MikeyFuccon: So if Ophelia's still packing 75mph by Monday, she'll have a fighting chance of doing Uncle Charley and Great Aunt Debbie proud.


Woof.  Hope things turn out fine.  There is still time for Ophelia to change her mind, fortunately!
 
2017-10-12 04:29:51 PM  

SomeAmerican: MikeyFuccon: So if Ophelia's still packing 75mph by Monday, she'll have a fighting chance of doing Uncle Charley and Great Aunt Debbie proud.

Woof.  Hope things turn out fine.  There is still time for Ophelia to change her mind, fortunately!


Ireland doesn't have any storm surge issues, though, right?  I remember high rocky coasts.  So that's good.
 
2017-10-12 05:06:43 PM  

SomeAmerican: SomeAmerican: MikeyFuccon: So if Ophelia's still packing 75mph by Monday, she'll have a fighting chance of doing Uncle Charley and Great Aunt Debbie proud.

Woof.  Hope things turn out fine.  There is still time for Ophelia to change her mind, fortunately!

Ireland doesn't have any storm surge issues, though, right?  I remember high rocky coasts.  So that's good.


In the west, yes. But if she shifts east...Charley did for the Wicklow coast, where storm surge did a great deal of damage along with the rain.

5pm EDT advisory (10pm Dublin time). Our Ophelia has bulked up to a Cat 2 (100mph). She's now expected to be still be at hurricane force when she passes Ireland on Monday (75mph, maybe higher), and her forecast cone at that point includes greater Dublin.

www.nhc.noaa.gov
Current gale-force wind probabilities. All Ireland has at least a better than even chance of gale-force winds at this point. Hardly anywhere in the British Isles can rule them out at this stage.

www.nhc.noaa.gov Hurricane-force winds, if they are observed, are still most likely to affect the west coast of Ireland.
 
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