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(Nautil.us)   I'm not saying we'll have evidence of aliens by 2035, but we'll probably have evidence of aliens by 2035 ...if they really exist   ( nautil.us) divider line
    More: Interesting, SETI, SETI Institute, star systems, modern SETI receiver, SETI practitioners paw, SETI experiments, so-called optical SETI, SETI Permanent Study  
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1260 clicks; posted to Geek » on 06 Oct 2017 at 4:41 AM (2 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



Voting Results (Smartest)
View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest

2017-10-06 01:29:36 AM  
13 votes:
I can say that with what we know about our solar system, and other systems out there, it's pretty much certain already that some form of life likely exists off earth.  And by likely, I mean I'm pretty farking sure, and anyone with the ability to do math should be able to figure it out as well, that given that Earth, Mars, Europa, Euclidus, and Titan all have a chance of hosting life (that we've noticed so far) there's almost definitely going to be some type of life that exists off Earth.

What type?  No farking clue.  Intelligent?  No farking clue.  Anything else?  No farking clue.

But we're not alone.  Unless there's some type of god smiting everything everywhere, it's so incredibly unlikely we're the only life in the universe that it's kind of stupid to really consider it as an option.  We may never meet other life, but we're not alone.
2017-10-06 10:21:43 AM  
5 votes:

lindseyp: davidphogan: I can say that with what we know about our solar system, and other systems out there, it's pretty much certain already that some form of life likely exists off earth.  And by likely, I mean I'm pretty farking sure, and anyone with the ability to do math should be able to figure it out as well, that given that Earth, Mars, Europa, Euclidus, and Titan all have a chance of hosting life (that we've noticed so far) there's almost definitely going to be some type of life that exists off Earth.

What type?  No farking clue.  Intelligent?  No farking clue.  Anything else?  No farking clue.

But we're not alone.  Unless there's some type of god smiting everything everywhere, it's so incredibly unlikely we're the only life in the universe that it's kind of stupid to really consider it as an option.  We may never meet other life, but we're not alone.

But it's really puzzling why we haven't seen evidence yet.  If you imagine the natural path of technological progress to be one where we create self-replicating explorer robots to scour the galaxy,  then judging by the age of the galaxy, the chances that some other civilization has already done this long enough ago that the entire galaxy has already been explored by *their* robots, is very small.

WaitButWhy did a great piece on the fermi paradox, and in particular the Great Filters.   Basically if we haven't seen Aliens yet, then we're the first civilization to explore space, or in general things happen to kill off civilizations before they reach that level of technological progress.  Be it self-destructing, supernovas, gamma ray bursts or whatever.

I'm sure there is life out there, and we will find it, but I'm not so sure it'll be advanced, or that our future is as rosy as our sci-fi series likes to tell us.


Sorry, but the Fermi Paradox is just dumb.  There's solar systems within this galaxy that we're only seeing as they were 120,000+ years ago because of how long the light takes to get to us.  That's plenty of time for a sentient species to evolve high intelligence, develop space-faring tech, and start exploring, and we'd still have no clue that they were there for thousands of years to come.

And the whole thing of "an advanced space-faring race could have explored the whole galaxy by now, so how come we don't see evidence of that?" is also super dumb because it assumes that a) they'd want to explore the whole galaxy, b) they'd pass within 400-500 light years of us within the last 400-500 years that we've had technology that would allow us to see evidence of space travel, and c) that we'd even know what to look for.

The Fermi Paradox is based on the idea that any other sentient species in our galaxy would behave in a manner that we'd understand, and that we'd be able to immediately recognize signs of these other species, and those are both really big assumptions to make.  It's about as smart as saying, "Well, if aliens are real, how come we haven't met any real Vulcans yet?"
2017-10-06 02:31:19 AM  
5 votes:
If WE really exist in 2035. The way things are going it's not looking good.
2017-10-06 04:25:21 PM  
3 votes:

elchupacabra: Teufelaffe: And that right there is why the paradox is so dumb.  It depends entirely on alien life evolving and behaving in a manner similar to us and that is a mind-bogglinly huge assumption to make.  Hell, it's a massive leap just to assume that other sentient species would even develop tools or technology as we know them.

It's not dumb given the number of star systems we're dealing with.   With a large enough sample size, there's no reason to expect that our evolutionary path is unique, and it would have to be mind-boggingly rare to not have at least a few civilizations out there.

And "Humanity's evolutionary path is unique or too rare to replicate more than once a galaxy" is a potential solution to the paradox, just not an obvious one.  The paradox wouldn't be "dumb" unless its solution were trivial, and there's still too many potential solutions to it for that to be the case.


Fine, it's not dumb, it's just not a paradox.  There could be a multitude of contemporary alien civilizations across the Milky Way that we are entirely unaware of for any number of reasons including, but not limited to:

• They take a form we don't recognize as civilization
• Evidence of their existence just hasn't gotten to us yet
• We're looking in the wrong direction (I would say this is the most likely option considering just how little of the night sky we can observe in detail at any given time)
• Some sort of astronomical phenomenon is interfering with us being able to perceive the evidence
• They're deliberately hiding from us.

The Fermi Paradox is the astrophysical equivalent of "pics or it didn't happen" and it's not a paradox, it's just some folks severely limiting their field of view and then claiming that because they can't see everything, that it Means Something.
2017-10-06 12:41:19 PM  
3 votes:

lindseyp: It's not dumb, because the timescales in which it's been possible for intelligent life to develop are just magnitudes bigger than the numbers you're quoting.   Our rise to intelligence has been extremely short by comparison. A matter of milliseconds on the one-hour galactic clock.  If it were a millisecond to midnight, it's imaginable that someone would have reached our level fifteen minutes ago.  If that were true, they'd have already had plenty of time to colonize the entire galaxy by now.

But clearly they have not.  That's the mystery.  Your answer is a good one in one respect...maybe other intelligent species don't want to explore.  The history of life in any form at all that we're aware of suggests that's not a reasonable assumption.


Do you simply not understand how big the galaxy is?
2017-10-06 10:58:30 AM  
3 votes:

lindseyp: xaks: The Fermi Paradox is hyper-ego navelgazing at its finest. Even supposing that we have the technology to 'see' out 100 light years....the depths of hubris is expecting any other spacefaring life would be using radio waves and visible light to communicate outwardly, so we could observe it with the tools we just now developed

It makes a lot of assumptions, but who gives a fark about radio waves or visible light?

By the timescales involved since the first planets formed, other potential civilizations have had BILLIONS of years to explore the galaxy, already.  It's not about looking for a signal.  If civilizations progress in the way we are progressing, and don't die out in the meanwhile, they'd already BE here.

Which makes you think a lot... there's a good chance that we, along with all other civilizations, just reach a point where it all goes titsup and we get reset.


And that right there is why the paradox is so dumb.  It depends entirely on alien life evolving and behaving in a manner similar to us and that is a mind-bogglinly huge assumption to make.  Hell, it's a massive leap just to assume that other sentient species would even develop tools or technology as we know them.  For all we know there could be a planet of hyper-intelligent cephalopods out there who never saw a reason to move out of their oceans, or a planet of corvids with intellects that dwarf our own, but they never had any environmental or evolutionary pressure to push them to develop tools, so they didn't.  And all of that doesn't even touch on the potential for intelligences that we wouldn't even recognize as intelligences (planets, gas clouds, energy fields, etc).

The Fermi Paradox is arrogant assumption, plain and simple.
2017-10-06 06:44:03 AM  
3 votes:
Numerically alone, the odds are high that there is not only Life somewhere else in the Universe, but Intelligent Life. But we will likely never encounter them, because they are WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY over there in Galaxy X, and we are WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY over here. And that's fine, although it would be cool if we did meet aliens, if only to drive the Abrahamic religions nuts.
2017-10-06 06:38:27 AM  
3 votes:

Kirablue42: Who says that intelligent life must contain matter, for that matter. There could be vastly sentient galactic clouds of gas. We might even be able to make contact with such an intelligence.

But would we believe it if we did? Or could it ever be proven that we have?


"That's ridiculous. How can meat make a machine? You're asking me to believe in sentient meat."
2017-10-06 05:51:03 AM  
3 votes:

Snapper Carr: I doubt we'll discover signs of an extraterrestrial intelligence anytime soon unless they have the a) ability and b) desire to contact us (assuming they exist at all).

But I do think we'll discover some form of extraterrestrial biology within the next 50 years or so. It might be something as simple as algae clinging to the surface surrounding a thermal vent on Europa but it'll be organic.


ic.pics.livejournal.com
2017-10-06 01:45:20 PM  
2 votes:

Felgraf: lindseyp: I think you missed the point of most of my post.   The signals are a red herring.   On galactic timescales they've had enough time to mosey over on here in their glacial interstellar probes and actually BE here.  If they're not, then interstellar civilization is *extremely* rare.  Our anthropomorphic principals have a hard time grasping this.  We think we're normal.  And/or this level of civilization is basically nonexistent because of other factors.   i.e. what we call the Great Filters.

If THAT is true, then we're basically sitting ducks, waiting to be exterminated before we get out of our little sandpit.

A) Why would they mosey over here? how would they know where 'here' is?

B) This assumes they have FTL travel/FTL travel is possible. It might not be. The closest theoretical possible drive is the Albcuirre drive,which requires a form of matter that has never been observed.The only thing it has going for it is that we haven't ruled out that form of matter existing.

It would also require the mass-energy of the voyager probe, which is... the total amount of energy generated by people on the planet in a 2-3 year period, I believe.

So, frankly, a third solution to the Fermi paradox is: Because radio signals won't go that for, and people can't zip around the galaxy like Star Trek.


You don't seem to understand what the paradox is.

They wouldn't mosey over "here".  They'd be everywhere.  The timescales involved render distance irrelevant.  Our sun is 5 billion years old.  It took Earth about 4.5 billion years to produce a spacefaring civilization.  We have observed stars in the 7-10 billion year age range.  Then, if life is common, there should be many civilizations that have had 2-4 billion years to explore the galaxy.  Even with our current pitiful chemical rockets it would only take a million years or so to get to the other side of the galaxy.  So in 2 billion years we could get there and back 2000 times over!  In 2 billion years there won't be a star left anywhere that doesn't have a human probe beeping around it.  Unless there is some reason (a Great Filter if you will) that we don't survive that long.  War, disease, something causes a technological collapse...
We don't see technologically advanced civilizations everywhere, so either there is some reason a civilization cannot survive long enough to explore... or they weren't there in the first place.  That is the paradox.
2017-10-06 11:00:28 AM  
2 votes:

lindseyp: But it's really puzzling why we haven't seen evidence yet.  If you imagine the natural path of technological progress to be one where we create self-replicating explorer robots to scour the galaxy,  then judging by the age of the galaxy, the chances that some other civilization has already done this long enough ago that the entire galaxy has already been explored by *their* robots, is very small.


lindseyp: It makes a lot of assumptions, but who gives a fark about radio waves or visible light?


... It really isn't?
Like.

Our radio signals become almost indistinguishable from the cosmic background radiation after a couple hundred lightyears or so. Heck, we've had trouble recovering data from television broadcasts that bounced off of stuff in the Oort cloud, and that's *inside our own solar system*.

And we're already transitioning AWAY from using radio for a lot of communication.

Unless they were pointing a tight beam radio signal DIRECTLY AT OUR PLANET (and why would they? How would they know we were here?), why would we expect to see radio signals if there is, in fact, intelligent life out there?
2017-10-06 10:44:49 AM  
2 votes:

Teufelaffe: lindseyp: davidphogan: I can say that with what we know about our solar system, and other systems out there, it's pretty much certain already that some form of life likely exists off earth.  And by likely, I mean I'm pretty farking sure, and anyone with the ability to do math should be able to figure it out as well, that given that Earth, Mars, Europa, Euclidus, and Titan all have a chance of hosting life (that we've noticed so far) there's almost definitely going to be some type of life that exists off Earth.

What type?  No farking clue.  Intelligent?  No farking clue.  Anything else?  No farking clue.

But we're not alone.  Unless there's some type of god smiting everything everywhere, it's so incredibly unlikely we're the only life in the universe that it's kind of stupid to really consider it as an option.  We may never meet other life, but we're not alone.

But it's really puzzling why we haven't seen evidence yet.  If you imagine the natural path of technological progress to be one where we create self-replicating explorer robots to scour the galaxy,  then judging by the age of the galaxy, the chances that some other civilization has already done this long enough ago that the entire galaxy has already been explored by *their* robots, is very small.

WaitButWhy did a great piece on the fermi paradox, and in particular the Great Filters.   Basically if we haven't seen Aliens yet, then we're the first civilization to explore space, or in general things happen to kill off civilizations before they reach that level of technological progress.  Be it self-destructing, supernovas, gamma ray bursts or whatever.

I'm sure there is life out there, and we will find it, but I'm not so sure it'll be advanced, or that our future is as rosy as our sci-fi series likes to tell us.

Sorry, but the Fermi Paradox is just dumb.  There's solar systems within this galaxy that we're only seeing as they were 120,000+ years ago because of how long the light takes to get to us.  That's ...


It's not dumb, because the timescales in which it's been possible for intelligent life to develop are just magnitudes bigger than the numbers you're quoting.   Our rise to intelligence has been extremely short by comparison. A matter of milliseconds on the one-hour galactic clock.  If it were a millisecond to midnight, it's imaginable that someone would have reached our level fifteen minutes ago.  If that were true, they'd have already had plenty of time to colonize the entire galaxy by now.

But clearly they have not.  That's the mystery.  Your answer is a good one in one respect...maybe other intelligent species don't want to explore.  The history of life in any form at all that we're aware of suggests that's not a reasonable assumption.
2017-10-06 08:56:39 PM  
1 vote:
Remember: we haven't even mapped all of the Near-Earth Objects, asteroids that are literally just next door. Expecting to detect probably really faint radio signals of a specific kind light-years away by now or then is really absurd.
2017-10-06 01:28:42 PM  
1 vote:

Snapper Carr: I doubt we'll discover signs of an extraterrestrial intelligence anytime soon unless they have the a) ability and b) desire to contact us (assuming they exist at all).

But I do think we'll discover some form of extraterrestrial biology within the next 50 years or so. It might be something as simple as algae clinging to the surface surrounding a thermal vent on Europa but it'll be organic.


I'd mainly be worried about b. They're probably waiting for humanity to pass the "still killing each other over differences of belief" phase before they do anything like share advanced space tech.
2017-10-06 01:26:10 PM  
1 vote:

Esroc: There are plenty of arguments to be had for us being the only civilization in our galaxy and that's why it's not colonized. But claiming it couldn't be colonized period because "it's just too big maaaan" is dumb.


I'm pretty sure they're not saying that it couldn't be colonized because it's so big, but rather that it's very possible that there's colonization out there that we have no idea about because it's so big.

The folks who buy into the Fermi Paradox are like someone who's lived in Reykjavik their entire life, never gone more than a few miles outside the city at any point, and says, "You know what, I have never in my life seen a Taiwanese person.  They've had thousands of years to spread across the Earth, and yet I've not only never seen one, I've never seen any evidence of one here in Reykjavik.  If they actually existed, don't you think I'd have seen some evidence of them here?"
2017-10-06 01:16:31 PM  
1 vote:

lindseyp: davidphogan: I can say that with what we know about our solar system, and other systems out there, it's pretty much certain already that some form of life likely exists off earth.  And by likely, I mean I'm pretty farking sure, and anyone with the ability to do math should be able to figure it out as well, that given that Earth, Mars, Europa, Euclidus, and Titan all have a chance of hosting life (that we've noticed so far) there's almost definitely going to be some type of life that exists off Earth.

What type?  No farking clue.  Intelligent?  No farking clue.  Anything else?  No farking clue.

But we're not alone.  Unless there's some type of god smiting everything everywhere, it's so incredibly unlikely we're the only life in the universe that it's kind of stupid to really consider it as an option.  We may never meet other life, but we're not alone.

But it's really puzzling why we haven't seen evidence yet.  If you imagine the natural path of technological progress to be one where we create self-replicating explorer robots to scour the galaxy,  then judging by the age of the galaxy, the chances that some other civilization has already done this long enough ago that the entire galaxy has already been explored by *their* robots, is very small.

WaitButWhy did a great piece on the fermi paradox, and in particular the Great Filters.   Basically if we haven't seen Aliens yet, then we're the first civilization to explore space, or in general things happen to kill off civilizations before they reach that level of technological progress.  Be it self-destructing, supernovas, gamma ray bursts or whatever.

I'm sure there is life out there, and we will find it, but I'm not so sure it'll be advanced, or that our future is as rosy as our sci-fi series likes to tell us.


There is nothing too mysterious in my opinion.

1) everything is too far away in space - sending a probe to Alpha Centauri would take forever and it's next door. By "forever" I mean "hundreds of years at best".
2) civilizations have short lifetimes - classical Rome was one of the longer lasting ones and it went for 1000 years? There also seems to be some inverse correlation between technology and lifetime of a civilization, there are thousands year old plus societies at low tech levels but tech societies fall into dark ages fairly often.
3) lifetimes of known animals are fairly short, and activity correlates with shortened lifetime. A spacefaring species needs to live much, much longer.

Assuming we attain the level to send probes to other star systems - most likely we could only search a very near area and the process would take hundreds of years at the very least, more likely thousands. We haven't fully explored our own solar system yet!
2017-10-06 11:12:48 AM  
1 vote:

Tom_Slick: Kirablue42: Who says that intelligent life must contain matter, for that matter. There could be vastly sentient galactic clouds of gas. We might even be able to make contact with such an intelligence.

But would we believe it if we did? Or could it ever be proven that we have?

Wasn't that the basis of life on Jupiter in the novel 2010?


Yes. And there have been novels positing life inside the sun using magnetic flux as an energy source. Notably Sundiver by David Brin. And life on neutron stars based on nuclear processes (Dragon's Egg/Starquake by David Forward). And gas giant aliens also showed up in Star Control II.
2017-10-06 10:43:50 AM  
1 vote:

Teufelaffe: lindseyp: davidphogan: I can say that with what we know about our solar system, and other systems out there, it's pretty much certain already that some form of life likely exists off earth.  And by likely, I mean I'm pretty farking sure, and anyone with the ability to do math should be able to figure it out as well, that given that Earth, Mars, Europa, Euclidus, and Titan all have a chance of hosting life (that we've noticed so far) there's almost definitely going to be some type of life that exists off Earth.

What type?  No farking clue.  Intelligent?  No farking clue.  Anything else?  No farking clue.

But we're not alone.  Unless there's some type of god smiting everything everywhere, it's so incredibly unlikely we're the only life in the universe that it's kind of stupid to really consider it as an option.  We may never meet other life, but we're not alone.

But it's really puzzling why we haven't seen evidence yet.  If you imagine the natural path of technological progress to be one where we create self-replicating explorer robots to scour the galaxy,  then judging by the age of the galaxy, the chances that some other civilization has already done this long enough ago that the entire galaxy has already been explored by *their* robots, is very small.

WaitButWhy did a great piece on the fermi paradox, and in particular the Great Filters.   Basically if we haven't seen Aliens yet, then we're the first civilization to explore space, or in general things happen to kill off civilizations before they reach that level of technological progress.  Be it self-destructing, supernovas, gamma ray bursts or whatever.

I'm sure there is life out there, and we will find it, but I'm not so sure it'll be advanced, or that our future is as rosy as our sci-fi series likes to tell us.

Sorry, but the Fermi Paradox is just dumb.  There's solar systems within this galaxy that we're only seeing as they were 120,000+ years ago because of how long the light takes to get to us.  That's ...


THIS

The Fermi Paradox is hyper-ego navelgazing at its finest. Even supposing that we have the technology to 'see' out 100 light years....the depths of hubris is expecting any other spacefaring life would be using radio waves and visible light to communicate outwardly, so we could observe it with the tools we just now developed

We're so far up our own asses on this one it isn't even funny. I fully support the search and exploration of our solar system, but we should also finish exploring and understanding our own farking planet before getting all assed up about leaving
2017-10-06 09:28:19 AM  
1 vote:
No. No we won't. I'd put a sizable chunk of money on it.


Look, we should, as a species, continue to scientifically study and search the known universe for life, or evidence of past life. However, the average person really should completely stop hoping and desperately believing that those discoveries are "just around the corner," because the size and scale and timelines involved make the possibility ridiculously unlikely. Basically, it's the cosmic equivalent of the powerball: fun to dream about for a few minutes, but you shouldn't live and plan your life as though it's even remotely gonna happen.
2017-10-06 09:12:53 AM  
1 vote:

Deep Contact: oyster_popsicles: kayanlau: Life off Earth is not likely going to be anything like life on Earth. Even if they are intelligent, maybe they don't even have the resources on their planet to build crafts that is capable of interstellar travel. We might just be one of the few lucky ones that evolved on this planet with the right kind of resources to realize space travel for our species.

[img.fark.net image 850x482]
Maybe they can grow what they need. Or secrete it.

But secrete it from what?


Alien plant/animal/mineral, their own body, out of the very atmosphere they live in....who knows?
May seem impossible, but that's a word not to be trusted. Ever.
2017-10-06 09:09:29 AM  
1 vote:

davidphogan: I can say that with what we know about our solar system, and other systems out there, it's pretty much certain already that some form of life likely exists off earth.  And by likely, I mean I'm pretty farking sure, and anyone with the ability to do math should be able to figure it out as well, that given that Earth, Mars, Europa, Euclidus, and Titan all have a chance of hosting life (that we've noticed so far) there's almost definitely going to be some type of life that exists off Earth.

What type?  No farking clue.  Intelligent?  No farking clue.  Anything else?  No farking clue.

But we're not alone.  Unless there's some type of god smiting everything everywhere, it's so incredibly unlikely we're the only life in the universe that it's kind of stupid to really consider it as an option.  We may never meet other life, but we're not alone.


Yep, it's essentially a statistical certainty that there is other life out there.  It's nearly as high of a certainty that we will never see actual evidence of any of the other life forms out there.
2017-10-06 08:59:03 AM  
1 vote:

kayanlau: Life off Earth is not likely going to be anything like life on Earth. Even if they are intelligent, maybe they don't even have the resources on their planet to build crafts that is capable of interstellar travel. We might just be one of the few lucky ones that evolved on this planet with the right kind of resources to realize space travel for our species.


img.fark.net
Maybe they can grow what they need. Or secrete it.
2017-10-06 07:19:41 AM  
1 vote:
You could argue that tardigrades are alien life on earth already.  wouldn't surprise me if they had hitched a ride on something that crashed here.
2017-10-06 05:32:36 AM  
1 vote:
img.fark.net
 
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