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(Inverse)   "Musk claimed in a follow-up Instagram the cost per seat [for his passenger rockets] 'should be about the same as full fare economy in an aircraft.' Early calculations from experts suggest this is almost definitely bullshiat"   ( inverse.com) divider line
    More: Obvious, Big Fucking Rocket, ultra-fast passenger rocket, founder Elon Musk, Elon Musk, Rocket, between-flight rocket servicing, super expensive rockets, Ticket  
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592 clicks; posted to Geek » on 03 Oct 2017 at 10:20 PM (2 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



Voting Results (Smartest)
View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest

2017-10-03 08:15:20 PM  
8 votes:
His numbers on that are probably off, but I do think it's sexy as hell that we live in a time where a private company has the prices to launch payloads into orbit posted on its website:

http://www.spacex.com/about/capabilities
2017-10-03 10:39:37 PM  
6 votes:

abhorrent1: He also said at one time that his solar roof would cost the same as a conventional shingled roof. It doesn't.
I did his online calculator thing and IIRC it would cost me $85K. I could do a shingle roof for 10. Less if I do the work myself.


Economy of scale is a factor, and last I checked, they were still ramping up production.  The early adopters fund the expansion to drive down cost so everyone else can get on board.  This is not new.
2017-10-03 07:07:53 PM  
5 votes:
He meant the cost of the actual seat. The price to actually occupy one of those seats will be astronomical.
2017-10-03 11:23:53 PM  
4 votes:

abhorrent1: Esc7: abhorrent1: He also said at one time that his solar roof would cost the same as a conventional shingled roof. It doesn't.
I did his online calculator thing and IIRC it would cost me $85K. I could do a shingle roof for 10. Less if I do the work myself.

He lied.

He sold you, in a sales pitch, that the TCO of installing and owning those panels for a decades long period would be equivalent to shingles.

Because of the future projected tax incentives, future projected energy prices, future projected maintenance and future projected value increase on the resale of your home.

Listen, I love cutting edge tech as much as the next person but the cult of Elon is approching Steve jobs levels. You can barely criticize anything he's connected with and hordes of fanboys descend upon you.

Yeah it's too bad too.
I would love to use some alternative energy solutions.  Maybe it's changed but maybe 5 or so years ago I was looking into all of those things. Geothermal, Solar and wind.

Probably still have the spreadsheets on an old external HD around here somewhere. Problem was always that the ROI took too long. It the ROI is 25 years and the life expectancy of the product is only 15-20, it just doesn't make sense.

Would love to use some of this new tech but cost wise it's just stupid.


Well I congratulate you on wanting to do something but rarely is the ROI worth it for above industry standard.

My wife is an architect that does construction management. Industry standards are the way they are because they're the cheapest and most profitable she says.

Things are cheap because they push costs out to externalities. The easiest to see this is fossil fuels where they contribute carbon towards global warming. You can't compete with renewables when the true costs on the other side aren't factored in.

Consider the extra costs as your payment towards helping the environment.
2017-10-03 10:53:54 PM  
4 votes:

abhorrent1: He also said at one time that his solar roof would cost the same as a conventional shingled roof. It doesn't.
I did his online calculator thing and IIRC it would cost me $85K. I could do a shingle roof for 10. Less if I do the work myself.


He lied.

He sold you, in a sales pitch, that the TCO of installing and owning those panels for a decades long period would be equivalent to shingles.

Because of the future projected tax incentives, future projected energy prices, future projected maintenance and future projected value increase on the resale of your home.

Listen, I love cutting edge tech as much as the next person but the cult of Elon is approching Steve jobs levels. You can barely criticize anything he's connected with and hordes of fanboys descend upon you.
2017-10-03 10:50:53 PM  
4 votes:

rcain: With his Hyperloop and Rocket Transportation Initiatives Musk stands to totally transform transportation around the world -- he also stands to monopolize it. These initiatives should NOT be Private, they should be done in concert with Local and National Governments to ensure the the Public is able to access these systems affordably and not be preyed upon by a Monopoly or Business Cartel


If he creates a faster, cheaper, safer alternative why shouldn't he become even more phenomenally wealthy?
2017-10-04 02:06:20 AM  
3 votes:

slantsix: To be even more fairer, it's a bit of both. Musk is a bullshiat artist, and the media just eat up that bullshiat, no questions asked. At least Steve Jobs produced something of value. So far, Musk has yet to deliver.

I'm an architect. His talk of inexpensive solar roof tiles is unmitigated nonsense. The construction industry is insanely resistant to change, because there's no financial incentive to do so.

You know what makes more sense than installing $100k worth of solar shingles? Plant some deciduous trees around your house. Spend $10k on insulation and air tightness. Install awnings over sun-facing windows. I could go on.


How is that fair?  Your whole argument is basically personal incredulity.  SpaceX is already taking on contracts to lift things into near earth orbit, even though they're only part way along the development they're planning, and tesla motors is already in the top 10 most valuable world wide car brands.  For one random guy to break into multiple differing industrial markets he didn't have a toe in prior, and to do THAT well, means he's high above and beyond some mere bullshiat artist.
2017-10-03 10:34:54 PM  
3 votes:
He also said at one time that his solar roof would cost the same as a conventional shingled roof. It doesn't.
I did his online calculator thing and IIRC it would cost me $85K. I could do a shingle roof for 10. Less if I do the work myself.
2017-10-04 03:49:28 AM  
2 votes:

moike: rcain: With his Hyperloop and Rocket Transportation Initiatives Musk stands to totally transform transportation around the world -- he also stands to monopolize it. These initiatives should NOT be Private, they should be done in concert with Local and National Governments to ensure the the Public is able to access these systems affordably and not be preyed upon by a Monopoly or Business Cartel

Go away.


He has a good point. I used to have a textbook called The City Assembled, I loved that book. It talked about the history of the development of cities from both a physical and a social perspective.

One of the takeaway is that privatization of infrastructure has been tried in many times in many places and it always leads to a decrease in interaction between groups or even individuals depending on its deployment. It interferes with trade as the immediate profit motive of the owner hikes the prices of goods and services. Toll roads were pointed at as an example of this, both those owned privately and publicly. It is better, overall, for such costs to be socialized rather than paid for on a per-use basis because then it serves its function far more often and it increases the ability of everyone to benefit from its use.

I have seen nothing in my decades since to dissuade me from that perspective, especially currently as an over the road truck driver.
2017-10-04 01:56:31 AM  
2 votes:

Cpl.D: abhorrent1: They never talk about the scale factor. They just come out of the gate telling people it's gonna be affordable.

To be fair, then, this is a problem with clickbait style media, not Tesla.  So far as I've always been aware, they tell people straight up front that it'll be more expensive at the start for the early adopters.  But they'll also project where they can get the price to as time goes by.

And when it comes down to it, I wouldn't be the one to bet against musk.  Too many people have already lost money doing that.


To be even more fairer, it's a bit of both. Musk is a bullshiat artist, and the media just eat up that bullshiat, no questions asked. At least Steve Jobs produced something of value. So far, Musk has yet to deliver.

I'm an architect. His talk of inexpensive solar roof tiles is unmitigated nonsense. The construction industry is insanely resistant to change, because there's no financial incentive to do so.

You know what makes more sense than installing $100k worth of solar shingles? Plant some deciduous trees around your house. Spend $10k on insulation and air tightness. Install awnings over sun-facing windows. I could go on.
2017-10-03 11:53:27 PM  
2 votes:
So Dr. Paypal doesn't know what the fark he is talking about? I'm shocked. He hire more engineers later and revise the story.
2017-10-03 11:33:56 PM  
2 votes:

abhorrent1: He also said at one time that his solar roof would cost the same as a conventional shingled roof. It doesn't.
I did his online calculator thing and IIRC it would cost me $85K. I could do a shingle roof for 10. Less if I do the work myself.


I don't believe he said shingle. He said conventional roof. It was generally understood it was on par with tile or other premium material
2017-10-03 10:54:44 PM  
2 votes:

rcain: With his Hyperloop and Rocket Transportation Initiatives Musk stands to totally transform transportation around the world -- he also stands to monopolize it. These initiatives should NOT be Private, they should be done in concert with Local and National Governments to ensure the the Public is able to access these systems affordably and not be preyed upon by a Monopoly or Business Cartel


Go away.
2017-10-03 10:49:12 PM  
2 votes:

rcain: With his Hyperloop and Rocket Transportation Initiatives Musk stands to totally transform transportation around the world -- he also stands to monopolize it. These initiatives should NOT be Private, they should be done in concert with Local and National Governments to ensure the the Public is able to access these systems affordably and not be preyed upon by a Monopoly or Business Cartel


ULA getting off their asses and not farting out another collection of spare Shuttle parts for a heavy lift rocket would provide some competition.
2017-10-03 06:28:09 PM  
2 votes:
With his Hyperloop and Rocket Transportation Initiatives Musk stands to totally transform transportation around the world -- he also stands to monopolize it. These initiatives should NOT be Private, they should be done in concert with Local and National Governments to ensure the the Public is able to access these systems affordably and not be preyed upon by a Monopoly or Business Cartel
2017-10-04 08:12:09 AM  
1 vote:

Cpl.D: abhorrent1: He also said at one time that his solar roof would cost the same as a conventional shingled roof. It doesn't.
I did his online calculator thing and IIRC it would cost me $85K. I could do a shingle roof for 10. Less if I do the work myself.

Economy of scale is a factor, and last I checked, they were still ramping up production.  The early adopters fund the expansion to drive down cost so everyone else can get on board.  This is not new.


Except it's something he has yet to prove he can make work. Even the Tesla 3, which has been "in production" for months has delivered 220 vehicles and costs significantly more than the a ton of other, comparable all-electric vehicles from other manufacturers.
2017-10-04 03:27:53 AM  
1 vote:
I'd like to see some back-of-the-envelope figures to see the basis of either claim. Liquid methane isn't more expensive than JP-1 kerosene, you're not going to have a cabin or a cockpit crew on sub-orbital hops of less than an hour. And if you can do ten transatlantic flights in the time it takes for a contemporary jetliner to do one, you can still afford a lot of capital outlay in both rockets and infrastructure. Hell, a lot depends on turn-around time and the number of maintenance hours per flight hour. Lastly, Musk seems to be a compulsive gambler, but one who has had pretty much of a winning streak most of his life. I wouldn't necessarily bet against him.
2017-10-04 01:32:01 AM  
1 vote:
Hm... did no one read the actual article?

The numbers they are quoting also includes infrastructure. That is never included in airline costs.

Pretty skeezy article.
2017-10-03 11:56:55 PM  
1 vote:

abhorrent1: They never talk about the scale factor. They just come out of the gate telling people it's gonna be affordable.


To be fair, then, this is a problem with clickbait style media, not Tesla.  So far as I've always been aware, they tell people straight up front that it'll be more expensive at the start for the early adopters.  But they'll also project where they can get the price to as time goes by.

And when it comes down to it, I wouldn't be the one to bet against musk.  Too many people have already lost money doing that.
2017-10-03 11:44:28 PM  
1 vote:
I've said it a thousand times: if small scale local PV was profitable, you wouldn't need to know. Companies would be spamming you with junk mail to put them on your roof and pocket the money. They'd set them up in any open space where they could stick an inverter.

Like when bitcoin farming was profitable they slapped together a bunch of hardware and made farms, no one needed extra incentive to do it, the invisible hand did it.

I'm fine with recognizing the reality of the situation: fossil fuels have 65 million years of a headstart on renewables and attain incredible energy density by poisoning our planet. The work to condense the energy was already done for us by megafauna, rocks, and time.

I'm fine with paying more to save our lives.
2017-10-03 11:27:38 PM  
1 vote:

abhorrent1: Esc7: abhorrent1: He also said at one time that his solar roof would cost the same as a conventional shingled roof. It doesn't.
I did his online calculator thing and IIRC it would cost me $85K. I could do a shingle roof for 10. Less if I do the work myself.

He lied.

He sold you, in a sales pitch, that the TCO of installing and owning those panels for a decades long period would be equivalent to shingles.

Because of the future projected tax incentives, future projected energy prices, future projected maintenance and future projected value increase on the resale of your home.

Listen, I love cutting edge tech as much as the next person but the cult of Elon is approching Steve jobs levels. You can barely criticize anything he's connected with and hordes of fanboys descend upon you.

Yeah it's too bad too.
I would love to use some alternative energy solutions.  Maybe it's changed but maybe 5 or so years ago I was looking into all of those things. Geothermal, Solar and wind.

Probably still have the spreadsheets on an old external HD around here somewhere. Problem was always that the ROI took too long. It the ROI is 25 years and the life expectancy of the product is only 15-20, it just doesn't make sense.

Would love to use some of this new tech but cost wise it's just stupid.


How long ago did you do the calculations? Solar panel prices have dropped a lot over the last decade, with cheap panels from China hitting the market.
2017-10-03 06:20:47 PM  
1 vote:
I guess they think many people want to leave Detroit ASAP, even if it includes riding a one kiloton bomb to do so.
 
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