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(Inverse)   "Musk claimed in a follow-up Instagram the cost per seat [for his passenger rockets] 'should be about the same as full fare economy in an aircraft.' Early calculations from experts suggest this is almost definitely bullshiat"   ( inverse.com) divider line
    More: Obvious, Big Fucking Rocket, ultra-fast passenger rocket, founder Elon Musk, Elon Musk, Rocket, between-flight rocket servicing, super expensive rockets, Ticket  
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583 clicks; posted to Geek » on 03 Oct 2017 at 10:20 PM (13 days ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2017-10-03 05:50:05 PM  
Soooo Musk is going to subsidize all of the tickets?

/ laughs ass off
 
2017-10-03 06:20:47 PM  
I guess they think many people want to leave Detroit ASAP, even if it includes riding a one kiloton bomb to do so.
 
2017-10-03 06:28:09 PM  
With his Hyperloop and Rocket Transportation Initiatives Musk stands to totally transform transportation around the world -- he also stands to monopolize it. These initiatives should NOT be Private, they should be done in concert with Local and National Governments to ensure the the Public is able to access these systems affordably and not be preyed upon by a Monopoly or Business Cartel
 
2017-10-03 07:07:53 PM  
He meant the cost of the actual seat. The price to actually occupy one of those seats will be astronomical.
 
2017-10-03 07:56:13 PM  
Well sure, if you don't count the $1.5 million for a carry-on.
 
2017-10-03 08:15:20 PM  
His numbers on that are probably off, but I do think it's sexy as hell that we live in a time where a private company has the prices to launch payloads into orbit posted on its website:

http://www.spacex.com/about/capabilities
 
2017-10-03 08:57:43 PM  
Anagram of Elon Musk = Suk Lemon.
 
2017-10-03 10:00:19 PM  
Some absolute nobody professor or Elon Musk?

What kind of an idiot is putting their money on the former?
 
2017-10-03 10:24:44 PM  
Maybe on a per mile basis.
 
2017-10-03 10:25:43 PM  
super.

If I ever get a chance to fly in space some dick will be clipping his toe nails in the seat next to me.
 
2017-10-03 10:30:38 PM  
Should be and will be are different things. Like how I should cut back on drinking  but I won't.
 
2017-10-03 10:34:54 PM  
He also said at one time that his solar roof would cost the same as a conventional shingled roof. It doesn't.
I did his online calculator thing and IIRC it would cost me $85K. I could do a shingle roof for 10. Less if I do the work myself.
 
2017-10-03 10:35:45 PM  
24.media.tumblr.com
 
2017-10-03 10:39:37 PM  

abhorrent1: He also said at one time that his solar roof would cost the same as a conventional shingled roof. It doesn't.
I did his online calculator thing and IIRC it would cost me $85K. I could do a shingle roof for 10. Less if I do the work myself.


Economy of scale is a factor, and last I checked, they were still ramping up production.  The early adopters fund the expansion to drive down cost so everyone else can get on board.  This is not new.
 
2017-10-03 10:40:35 PM  

abhorrent1: He also said at one time that his solar roof would cost the same as a conventional shingled roof. It doesn't.
I did his online calculator thing and IIRC it would cost me $85K. I could do a shingle roof for 10. Less if I do the work myself.


And then does your power company pay you for the electricity your roof is producing?
 
2017-10-03 10:49:12 PM  

rcain: With his Hyperloop and Rocket Transportation Initiatives Musk stands to totally transform transportation around the world -- he also stands to monopolize it. These initiatives should NOT be Private, they should be done in concert with Local and National Governments to ensure the the Public is able to access these systems affordably and not be preyed upon by a Monopoly or Business Cartel


ULA getting off their asses and not farting out another collection of spare Shuttle parts for a heavy lift rocket would provide some competition.
 
2017-10-03 10:50:53 PM  

rcain: With his Hyperloop and Rocket Transportation Initiatives Musk stands to totally transform transportation around the world -- he also stands to monopolize it. These initiatives should NOT be Private, they should be done in concert with Local and National Governments to ensure the the Public is able to access these systems affordably and not be preyed upon by a Monopoly or Business Cartel


If he creates a faster, cheaper, safer alternative why shouldn't he become even more phenomenally wealthy?
 
2017-10-03 10:53:54 PM  

abhorrent1: He also said at one time that his solar roof would cost the same as a conventional shingled roof. It doesn't.
I did his online calculator thing and IIRC it would cost me $85K. I could do a shingle roof for 10. Less if I do the work myself.


He lied.

He sold you, in a sales pitch, that the TCO of installing and owning those panels for a decades long period would be equivalent to shingles.

Because of the future projected tax incentives, future projected energy prices, future projected maintenance and future projected value increase on the resale of your home.

Listen, I love cutting edge tech as much as the next person but the cult of Elon is approching Steve jobs levels. You can barely criticize anything he's connected with and hordes of fanboys descend upon you.
 
2017-10-03 10:54:44 PM  

rcain: With his Hyperloop and Rocket Transportation Initiatives Musk stands to totally transform transportation around the world -- he also stands to monopolize it. These initiatives should NOT be Private, they should be done in concert with Local and National Governments to ensure the the Public is able to access these systems affordably and not be preyed upon by a Monopoly or Business Cartel


Go away.
 
2017-10-03 10:54:58 PM  

Cpl.D: Economy of scale is a factor, and last I checked, they were still ramping up production.  The early adopters fund the expansion to drive down cost so everyone else can get on board.  This is not new.


I get that. It just irritates me the way they promote these things. They come out with these articles screaming
"NEW ELECTRIC CAR FOR EVERYONE!" and then you look and it's $45K.

They never talk about the scale factor. They just come out of the gate telling people it's gonna be affordable.

eltejon: And then does your power company pay you for the electricity your roof is producing?


I think it depends on where you live but yeah. Not really sure how that works. Never looked into it that far because I can't afford to do anything like that.
 
2017-10-03 10:58:36 PM  

Sid_6.7: His numbers on that are probably off, but I do think it's sexy as hell that we live in a time where a private company has the prices to launch payloads into orbit posted on its website:

http://www.spacex.com/about/capabilities


They should have an "add to cart" button.
 
2017-10-03 11:05:01 PM  

Esc7: abhorrent1: He also said at one time that his solar roof would cost the same as a conventional shingled roof. It doesn't.
I did his online calculator thing and IIRC it would cost me $85K. I could do a shingle roof for 10. Less if I do the work myself.

He lied.

He sold you, in a sales pitch, that the TCO of installing and owning those panels for a decades long period would be equivalent to shingles.

Because of the future projected tax incentives, future projected energy prices, future projected maintenance and future projected value increase on the resale of your home.

Listen, I love cutting edge tech as much as the next person but the cult of Elon is approching Steve jobs levels. You can barely criticize anything he's connected with and hordes of fanboys descend upon you.


Yeah it's too bad too.
I would love to use some alternative energy solutions.  Maybe it's changed but maybe 5 or so years ago I was looking into all of those things. Geothermal, Solar and wind.

Probably still have the spreadsheets on an old external HD around here somewhere. Problem was always that the ROI took too long. It the ROI is 25 years and the life expectancy of the product is only 15-20, it just doesn't make sense.

Would love to use some of this new tech but cost wise it's just stupid.
 
2017-10-03 11:23:53 PM  

abhorrent1: Esc7: abhorrent1: He also said at one time that his solar roof would cost the same as a conventional shingled roof. It doesn't.
I did his online calculator thing and IIRC it would cost me $85K. I could do a shingle roof for 10. Less if I do the work myself.

He lied.

He sold you, in a sales pitch, that the TCO of installing and owning those panels for a decades long period would be equivalent to shingles.

Because of the future projected tax incentives, future projected energy prices, future projected maintenance and future projected value increase on the resale of your home.

Listen, I love cutting edge tech as much as the next person but the cult of Elon is approching Steve jobs levels. You can barely criticize anything he's connected with and hordes of fanboys descend upon you.

Yeah it's too bad too.
I would love to use some alternative energy solutions.  Maybe it's changed but maybe 5 or so years ago I was looking into all of those things. Geothermal, Solar and wind.

Probably still have the spreadsheets on an old external HD around here somewhere. Problem was always that the ROI took too long. It the ROI is 25 years and the life expectancy of the product is only 15-20, it just doesn't make sense.

Would love to use some of this new tech but cost wise it's just stupid.


Well I congratulate you on wanting to do something but rarely is the ROI worth it for above industry standard.

My wife is an architect that does construction management. Industry standards are the way they are because they're the cheapest and most profitable she says.

Things are cheap because they push costs out to externalities. The easiest to see this is fossil fuels where they contribute carbon towards global warming. You can't compete with renewables when the true costs on the other side aren't factored in.

Consider the extra costs as your payment towards helping the environment.
 
2017-10-03 11:27:38 PM  

abhorrent1: Esc7: abhorrent1: He also said at one time that his solar roof would cost the same as a conventional shingled roof. It doesn't.
I did his online calculator thing and IIRC it would cost me $85K. I could do a shingle roof for 10. Less if I do the work myself.

He lied.

He sold you, in a sales pitch, that the TCO of installing and owning those panels for a decades long period would be equivalent to shingles.

Because of the future projected tax incentives, future projected energy prices, future projected maintenance and future projected value increase on the resale of your home.

Listen, I love cutting edge tech as much as the next person but the cult of Elon is approching Steve jobs levels. You can barely criticize anything he's connected with and hordes of fanboys descend upon you.

Yeah it's too bad too.
I would love to use some alternative energy solutions.  Maybe it's changed but maybe 5 or so years ago I was looking into all of those things. Geothermal, Solar and wind.

Probably still have the spreadsheets on an old external HD around here somewhere. Problem was always that the ROI took too long. It the ROI is 25 years and the life expectancy of the product is only 15-20, it just doesn't make sense.

Would love to use some of this new tech but cost wise it's just stupid.


How long ago did you do the calculations? Solar panel prices have dropped a lot over the last decade, with cheap panels from China hitting the market.
 
2017-10-03 11:33:56 PM  

abhorrent1: He also said at one time that his solar roof would cost the same as a conventional shingled roof. It doesn't.
I did his online calculator thing and IIRC it would cost me $85K. I could do a shingle roof for 10. Less if I do the work myself.


I don't believe he said shingle. He said conventional roof. It was generally understood it was on par with tile or other premium material
 
2017-10-03 11:44:28 PM  
I've said it a thousand times: if small scale local PV was profitable, you wouldn't need to know. Companies would be spamming you with junk mail to put them on your roof and pocket the money. They'd set them up in any open space where they could stick an inverter.

Like when bitcoin farming was profitable they slapped together a bunch of hardware and made farms, no one needed extra incentive to do it, the invisible hand did it.

I'm fine with recognizing the reality of the situation: fossil fuels have 65 million years of a headstart on renewables and attain incredible energy density by poisoning our planet. The work to condense the energy was already done for us by megafauna, rocks, and time.

I'm fine with paying more to save our lives.
 
2017-10-03 11:48:52 PM  

Mad_Radhu: How long ago did you do the calculations? Solar panel prices have dropped a lot over the last decade, with cheap panels from China hitting the market.


It was 5 or more years ago. I don't remember exactly. Maybe I'll check again.
 
2017-10-03 11:53:27 PM  
So Dr. Paypal doesn't know what the fark he is talking about? I'm shocked. He hire more engineers later and revise the story.
 
2017-10-03 11:56:55 PM  

abhorrent1: They never talk about the scale factor. They just come out of the gate telling people it's gonna be affordable.


To be fair, then, this is a problem with clickbait style media, not Tesla.  So far as I've always been aware, they tell people straight up front that it'll be more expensive at the start for the early adopters.  But they'll also project where they can get the price to as time goes by.

And when it comes down to it, I wouldn't be the one to bet against musk.  Too many people have already lost money doing that.
 
2017-10-04 12:41:00 AM  

Cpl.D: abhorrent1: They never talk about the scale factor. They just come out of the gate telling people it's gonna be affordable.

To be fair, then, this is a problem with clickbait style media, not Tesla.  So far as I've always been aware, they tell people straight up front that it'll be more expensive at the start for the early adopters.  But they'll also project where they can get the price to as time goes by.

And when it comes down to it, I wouldn't be the one to bet against musk.  Too many people have already lost money doing that.


I don't bet against him. I think he's awesome. I don't know if it's clickbait media or out of touch billionaires or  corporations but they always come out with new products and tout how they're affordable for everyone. Then you see the price and whatever it is, is $40K.  That's not affordable for most people.
 
2017-10-04 01:32:01 AM  
Hm... did no one read the actual article?

The numbers they are quoting also includes infrastructure. That is never included in airline costs.

Pretty skeezy article.
 
2017-10-04 01:56:31 AM  

Cpl.D: abhorrent1: They never talk about the scale factor. They just come out of the gate telling people it's gonna be affordable.

To be fair, then, this is a problem with clickbait style media, not Tesla.  So far as I've always been aware, they tell people straight up front that it'll be more expensive at the start for the early adopters.  But they'll also project where they can get the price to as time goes by.

And when it comes down to it, I wouldn't be the one to bet against musk.  Too many people have already lost money doing that.


To be even more fairer, it's a bit of both. Musk is a bullshiat artist, and the media just eat up that bullshiat, no questions asked. At least Steve Jobs produced something of value. So far, Musk has yet to deliver.

I'm an architect. His talk of inexpensive solar roof tiles is unmitigated nonsense. The construction industry is insanely resistant to change, because there's no financial incentive to do so.

You know what makes more sense than installing $100k worth of solar shingles? Plant some deciduous trees around your house. Spend $10k on insulation and air tightness. Install awnings over sun-facing windows. I could go on.
 
2017-10-04 02:06:20 AM  

slantsix: To be even more fairer, it's a bit of both. Musk is a bullshiat artist, and the media just eat up that bullshiat, no questions asked. At least Steve Jobs produced something of value. So far, Musk has yet to deliver.

I'm an architect. His talk of inexpensive solar roof tiles is unmitigated nonsense. The construction industry is insanely resistant to change, because there's no financial incentive to do so.

You know what makes more sense than installing $100k worth of solar shingles? Plant some deciduous trees around your house. Spend $10k on insulation and air tightness. Install awnings over sun-facing windows. I could go on.


How is that fair?  Your whole argument is basically personal incredulity.  SpaceX is already taking on contracts to lift things into near earth orbit, even though they're only part way along the development they're planning, and tesla motors is already in the top 10 most valuable world wide car brands.  For one random guy to break into multiple differing industrial markets he didn't have a toe in prior, and to do THAT well, means he's high above and beyond some mere bullshiat artist.
 
Xai
2017-10-04 03:05:45 AM  
I hope musk doesn't pull an actual tesla and go mad in later life
 
2017-10-04 03:27:53 AM  
I'd like to see some back-of-the-envelope figures to see the basis of either claim. Liquid methane isn't more expensive than JP-1 kerosene, you're not going to have a cabin or a cockpit crew on sub-orbital hops of less than an hour. And if you can do ten transatlantic flights in the time it takes for a contemporary jetliner to do one, you can still afford a lot of capital outlay in both rockets and infrastructure. Hell, a lot depends on turn-around time and the number of maintenance hours per flight hour. Lastly, Musk seems to be a compulsive gambler, but one who has had pretty much of a winning streak most of his life. I wouldn't necessarily bet against him.
 
2017-10-04 03:39:31 AM  
What if I skip the inflight meal and heat shielding?
 
2017-10-04 03:49:28 AM  

moike: rcain: With his Hyperloop and Rocket Transportation Initiatives Musk stands to totally transform transportation around the world -- he also stands to monopolize it. These initiatives should NOT be Private, they should be done in concert with Local and National Governments to ensure the the Public is able to access these systems affordably and not be preyed upon by a Monopoly or Business Cartel

Go away.


He has a good point. I used to have a textbook called The City Assembled, I loved that book. It talked about the history of the development of cities from both a physical and a social perspective.

One of the takeaway is that privatization of infrastructure has been tried in many times in many places and it always leads to a decrease in interaction between groups or even individuals depending on its deployment. It interferes with trade as the immediate profit motive of the owner hikes the prices of goods and services. Toll roads were pointed at as an example of this, both those owned privately and publicly. It is better, overall, for such costs to be socialized rather than paid for on a per-use basis because then it serves its function far more often and it increases the ability of everyone to benefit from its use.

I have seen nothing in my decades since to dissuade me from that perspective, especially currently as an over the road truck driver.
 
2017-10-04 05:43:54 AM  
BolloxReader:

I have seen nothing in my decades since to dissuade me from that perspective, especially currently as an over the road truck driver.

Explain the wild success of privatized transportation companies Uber and Lyft in San Francisco, his home city... over the govt. run Muni service that everybody hates.

I'll wait.
 
2017-10-04 05:57:19 AM  

BolloxReader: I used to have a textbook called The City Assembled, I loved that book.


Thank you for the tip. I may well pick this up.
 
2017-10-04 06:33:18 AM  
It's a good goal, to try to get the cost down to around what it would cost to fly a similar distance around the earth, though it may be a little further off than he plans.
 
2017-10-04 06:34:03 AM  

Xai: I hope musk doesn't pull an actual tesla and go mad in later life


He's said in the past that his ultimate goal of all his endeavors was for him to retire on Mars.

/I guess that means we can expect a Martian invasion fleet at some point down the line if he does go nuts.
 
2017-10-04 07:57:50 AM  

slantsix: So far, Musk has yet to deliver.


SpaceX isn't launching payloads into space with reusable rockets?
 
2017-10-04 08:01:45 AM  
See.. everyone is missing it..
It's not that his seats will be so cheap.. it's just that the air lines will continue to hike rates to the point where he's competative!
 
2017-10-04 08:12:09 AM  

Cpl.D: abhorrent1: He also said at one time that his solar roof would cost the same as a conventional shingled roof. It doesn't.
I did his online calculator thing and IIRC it would cost me $85K. I could do a shingle roof for 10. Less if I do the work myself.

Economy of scale is a factor, and last I checked, they were still ramping up production.  The early adopters fund the expansion to drive down cost so everyone else can get on board.  This is not new.


Except it's something he has yet to prove he can make work. Even the Tesla 3, which has been "in production" for months has delivered 220 vehicles and costs significantly more than the a ton of other, comparable all-electric vehicles from other manufacturers.
 
2017-10-04 08:14:43 AM  

bronyaur1: Some absolute nobody professor or Elon Musk?

What kind of an idiot is putting their money on the former?


The person who has literally spent his entire adult life studying building spaceships, who teaches at one of the most prestigious programs in the world for aerospace engineering, and has absolutely no personal involvement in the situation or the carnival huckster who has oversold product after product after product?
 
2017-10-04 08:23:00 AM  

abhorrent1: Cpl.D: Economy of scale is a factor, and last I checked, they were still ramping up production.  The early adopters fund the expansion to drive down cost so everyone else can get on board.  This is not new.

I get that. It just irritates me the way they promote these things. They come out with these articles screaming
"NEW ELECTRIC CAR FOR EVERYONE!" and then you look and it's $45K.

They never talk about the scale factor. They just come out of the gate telling people it's gonna be affordable.


There are affordable electric cars for everyone, being sold at scale. Chevy's Bolt, Nissan's LEAF, Ford Focus Electric, Hyundai Ioniq, Volkswagen e-Golf, or the Kia Soul EV. Heck if you want something similar in price to the cheapest Tesla, there's the BMW i3. If you want super-cheap, there's the Chevy Spark, Mitsubishi i-MiEV, smart fortwo electric. All of those are priced in the mid-20s.

Basically, every auto manufacturer in the world other than Tesla has figured out how to produce an affordable electric car.
 
2017-10-04 08:27:38 AM  

rcain: With his Hyperloop and Rocket Transportation Initiatives Musk stands to totally transform transportation around the world -- he also stands to monopolize it. These initiatives should NOT be Private, they should be done in concert with Local and National Governments to ensure the the Public is able to access these systems affordably and not be preyed upon by a Monopoly or Business Cartel


That's commie talk.
 
2017-10-04 08:48:30 AM  

Excelsior: /I guess that means we can expect a Martian invasion fleet at some point down the line if he does go nuts.


And then, due to a colossal miscalculation of scale, it gets swallowed by a small dog.
 
2017-10-04 09:29:27 AM  

The wonderful travels of a turd: I'd like to see some back-of-the-envelope figures to see the basis of either claim. Liquid methane isn't more expensive than JP-1 kerosene, you're not going to have a cabin or a cockpit crew on sub-orbital hops of less than an hour. And if you can do ten transatlantic flights in the time it takes for a contemporary jetliner to do one, you can still afford a lot of capital outlay in both rockets and infrastructure. Hell, a lot depends on turn-around time and the number of maintenance hours per flight hour. Lastly, Musk seems to be a compulsive gambler, but one who has had pretty much of a winning streak most of his life. I wouldn't necessarily bet against him.


Musk says that a falcon 9 costs the same to fuel as a large jet. If you look at a 787 and a380, you get anywhere from $150000 to $400000 for fuel costs.

A 787 costs $150M. A falcon 9 costs $60M.

A Falcon 9 can carry 7 passengers, for an unknown number of flights. Let's assume 100, for now. Total of 700 passengers for $60M.
The 787 can carry 250 passengers for 10,000 flights, for 2.5M passengers.

Musk needs to charge $85000 per seat to break even.

An airline needs to charge $60 per seat to break even.

Play with the numbers to taste
 
2017-10-04 09:39:28 AM  

Fubegra: Excelsior: /I guess that means we can expect a Martian invasion fleet at some point down the line if he does go nuts.

And then, due to a colossal miscalculation of scale, it gets swallowed by a small dog.


>throw cheese sandwich at dog
 
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