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(MSN)   Great Depression II?   ( msn.com) divider line
    More: Scary, Rogers, Investment, investor Jim Rogers, bull market, Thestreet.com Jim Rogers, Money, President Donald Trump, Russian-purchased Facebook advertising  
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3852 clicks; posted to Business » on 28 Sep 2017 at 8:20 AM (10 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2017-09-28 08:11:04 AM  
Business reporters predicting financial crises are a lot like sports reporters predicting - at the start of the season - who will win the Super Bowl.  Except the sports reporters are more often right.
 
2017-09-28 08:18:14 AM  
Short the Toronto Maple Leafs!!! SHORT!!
 
2017-09-28 08:20:12 AM  
I won't say I'm ready, but I do have a plan.
 
2017-09-28 08:26:32 AM  
If the market crashed every time one of these nitwits said it would, we'd all be living in caves, eating our own feces.

On the other hand, there seem to be some indications of another pre-2008 bubble. And with the de-regulator in chief in the Big House, the risk is greatly multiplied.

/ happy days are here again
 
2017-09-28 08:26:41 AM  
Well, under Bush II we got the Great Recession, so why should we think an even worse leader would usher in anything other than a disastrous economic situation of some sort. We'll be lucky to see just another Great Recession, before Trump is out of office.
 
2017-09-28 08:27:06 AM  
That article had me thinking "meh, I've been scared better".
 
2017-09-28 08:27:33 AM  

Ambivalence: I won't say I'm ready, but I do have a plan.


Do you have a book to sell like the guy in TFA ?
 
2017-09-28 08:34:30 AM  
Stop reading Fark headlines!
Because Fark headlines contrive to frighten you
To make you feel small and alone
To make you feel that your mind isn't your own
 
2017-09-28 08:39:38 AM  
This was supposed to have happened next month, in keeping with tradition...
And if the US Commerce Department keeps coming up with random 200+% tariffs it won't be long before the rest of the world says "Fark it we're out!"*
Protectionism is the key to economic collapse, and Donnie is the key master.

*not good. for anybody.
 
2017-09-28 08:43:02 AM  

Nick Nostril: Ambivalence: I won't say I'm ready, but I do have a plan.

Do you have a book to sell like the guy in TFA ?


Who would pay money to read anything I had to type? I have plasma to sell, I guess that's almost as good.
 
2017-09-28 08:44:02 AM  

Ambivalence: I won't say I'm ready, but I do have a plan.


My plan involves a shotgun, how about yours?
 
2017-09-28 08:49:52 AM  

sno man: And if the US Commerce Department keeps coming up with random 200+% tariffs it won't be long before the rest of the world says "Fark it we're out!"*


As a Canuckian, I'm still on the fence aboot that tariff. Yeah, it's stupid & extreme but Bombardier has been a subsidized trainwreck for years.
 
2017-09-28 08:56:06 AM  
So, his one survival tip is to buy into the Chinese and Russian markets and agriculture.
 
2017-09-28 08:56:12 AM  
An article about the economy crashing? Is it Thursday already?

Translation: Everyone please panic and sell off so I can get some good deals.
 
2017-09-28 08:56:35 AM  
Once Congress passes their tax reform package, all that wealth is going to be trickling all over us, so I'm not worried at all.

It's not like it could backfire and the middle class being stifled could lead to slowing of the economy or anything like that. Right?

Right?
 
2017-09-28 09:01:09 AM  

Egoy3k: Ambivalence: I won't say I'm ready, but I do have a plan.

My plan involves a shotgun, how about yours?


Torches. Definitely torches.
And a cliff.
 
2017-09-28 09:04:09 AM  
Well, cash on hand helps.
When your 401k loses 30-40% like last time, buy in heavy.
Buy in on most any major long term stock that takes a 25-30% hit.
/Wait 3-5 years
//Profit
///The Ronco investment strategy.
 
2017-09-28 09:05:29 AM  
Look, I dislike Trump as much as the next college-educated, upper-middle class, knowledge economy worker living in a diverse urban environment (BOOO this man!) AND I think we're on a historically long-running bull market AND I realize that P/E ratios are historically high AND I think better opportunities for investment returns are outside the United  States, but this is a bit ridiculous.

He's being far too non-specific for me to take serious.  I could see something where student loan defaults coupled with auto loan defaults introduce some debt crisis or I could see where the removal of the home interest deduction hammers the housing market leading to a loss of individual wealth which drags on the stock market and the economy.  That seems possible, but what's probably going to get us next is not something we can see.

My concern is definitely that our long-term economic growth drags because we have an aging, immobile workforce and we won't have high enough levels of immigration.  Our economic ruin probably isn't an immediate catastrophe.  We can always recover from a bear market.  My concern is that we become Japan and that seems to be an inevitability with the mood in this country.

The people who are really going to get farked aren't investors.  It's the median worker aged 55-61 who only has $17,000 saved for retirement.  How is that person going to survive without enough workers to fund their social security?  Ironically, these are the people most likely to want to keep the immigrants that become the workers that fund SS out of the country.
 
2017-09-28 09:11:38 AM  

Pinner: Well, cash on hand helps.
When your 401k loses 30-40% like last time, buy in heavy.
Buy in on most any major long term stock that takes a 25-30% hit.
/Wait 3-5 years
//Profit
///The Ronco investment strategy.


I made back my losses from 2008 in 2009. The recovery was pretty quick... it ended up being a lost year since I didn't actually make any moves on any of my long term investments. Over the past couple months, I've been selling out of several of my more risky investments, but I intend on keeping all of my long term stuff and just buying more when it dips severely. Index funds FTW.
 
2017-09-28 09:11:57 AM  

Ambivalence: I won't say I'm ready, but I do have a plan.


My long term plan is that I've set myself up to be able to afford being poor.  House on a few acres with zero debt, negligible property taxes and rock bottom cost of living.  Only thing that could fark me over royally if my present gravy train derails is whatever happens with health care.  That's a substantial expense and I've got a wife and kid to boot.  Other than that I can weather the storm.  I think.
 
2017-09-28 09:12:51 AM  
Sponsored content doesn't scare me.
 
2017-09-28 09:21:44 AM  

Tr0mBoNe: Pinner: Well, cash on hand helps.
When your 401k loses 30-40% like last time, buy in heavy.
Buy in on most any major long term stock that takes a 25-30% hit.
/Wait 3-5 years
//Profit
///The Ronco investment strategy.

I made back my losses from 2008 in 2009. The recovery was pretty quick... it ended up being a lost year since I didn't actually make any moves on any of my long term investments. Over the past couple months, I've been selling out of several of my more risky investments, but I intend on keeping all of my long term stuff and just buying more when it dips severely. Index funds FTW.


So, your paper begat more paper.
So good.
 
2017-09-28 09:22:04 AM  

Egoy3k: Ambivalence: I won't say I'm ready, but I do have a plan.

My plan involves a shotgun, how about yours?


What?  No!  If it gets THAT bad I don't know that I want to survive it.  I'm talking about paying off my house and stuff.
 
2017-09-28 09:24:12 AM  

Egoy3k: Ambivalence: I won't say I'm ready, but I do have a plan.

My plan involves a shotgun, how about yours?


letraslibres.comView Full Size
 
2017-09-28 09:25:36 AM  

Egoy3k: Ambivalence: I won't say I'm ready, but I do have a plan.

My plan involves a shotgun, how about yours?


Live by the sword die by the sword.
 
2017-09-28 09:26:38 AM  
What's the answer to every headline using a yes or no question?
 
2017-09-28 09:28:14 AM  

snocone: Tr0mBoNe: Pinner: Well, cash on hand helps.
When your 401k loses 30-40% like last time, buy in heavy.
Buy in on most any major long term stock that takes a 25-30% hit.
/Wait 3-5 years
//Profit
///The Ronco investment strategy.

I made back my losses from 2008 in 2009. The recovery was pretty quick... it ended up being a lost year since I didn't actually make any moves on any of my long term investments. Over the past couple months, I've been selling out of several of my more risky investments, but I intend on keeping all of my long term stuff and just buying more when it dips severely. Index funds FTW.

So, your paper begat more paper.
So good.


Yep! You know, being how the economy works and all. What did you think I was investing for?
 
2017-09-28 09:34:34 AM  
I cashed out most of my non-retirement stocks after Dolt 45 won, and slid the money into more secure stuff (some combination of government bonds from EU powerhouses (France, Germany, etc), Japan, China, as well as Muni bonds for coastal cities, commodities, and Lockheed)

My 401k, which is still mostly stocks as it's got 35+ years left to grow increased nearly $12,000 in "value" with the "Trump rally". I'm ahead something like 15% over the money I've put in this year. It's all bullshiat. At the very least we're due for a painful correction of about 7-8%. Whether that will trigger a larger panic or simply be absorbed like the one a couple years ago remains to be seen. I'm not putting money on either option. Just a slow and steady bi-weekly contribution, as I've done since I started working.
 
2017-09-28 09:43:29 AM  
Before I click, is this some financial "guru" trying to sell gold to me? Funny how they tell me gold is the secret to financial security in the face of a financial crisis, yet they always want my cash.
 
2017-09-28 10:08:13 AM  
Only a fool would put their money into anything but Jim Bakker's buckets of food.
 
2017-09-28 10:14:50 AM  
The nice thing is I never really recovered from the last one.  I have zero to lose except my life and my house payment, but the mortgage is crazy cheap: The stupid association fees cost almost as much.
 
2017-09-28 10:18:24 AM  

DubyaHater: Before I click, is this some financial "guru" trying to sell gold to me? Funny how they tell me gold is the secret to financial security in the face of a financial crisis, yet they always want my cash.


Well, he's not actually trying to sell you on gold. He says he's not buying gold.
 
2017-09-28 10:22:03 AM  
to;dr - all you morons sell sell sell so I can buy like it's 2008 again!
 
2017-09-28 10:22:32 AM  
Market prognosticators managed to predict 12 of the last 4 recessions.
 
2017-09-28 10:25:54 AM  

MmmmBacon: Well, under Bush II we got the Great Recession, so why should we think an even worse leader would usher in anything other than a disastrous economic situation of some sort. We'll be lucky to see just another Great Recession, before Trump is out of office.


Total War with North Korea will keep industry humming.
 
2017-09-28 10:31:28 AM  

Egoy3k: Ambivalence: I won't say I'm ready, but I do have a plan.

My plan involves a shotgun, how about yours?


Definitely more than 1 long range, high-powered rifle and a lot of ammo. If it comes to shotguns it's already too late, they're upon you. Better have your claymores set up. Always live on the high ground. It's easier to shoot down, and targets move slower running up a hill. Or so I've heard.
 
2017-09-28 10:55:21 AM  

GRCooper: to;dr - all you morons sell sell sell so I can buy like it's 2008 again!


Might want to wait until after the dead cat bounce.
 
2017-09-28 10:57:52 AM  

GRCooper: to;dr - all you morons sell sell sell so I can buy like it's 2008 again!


encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.comView Full Size
 
2017-09-28 11:11:14 AM  
I'm also expecting a crash.  The S&P 500 has increased 25% since the beginning of last year, and there is no rational economic reason for it.  The market seems to be behaving opposite to the way it should... every new risk causes it to jump another % or two.

My wife and I have responded by pulling out of the markets and investing in our business instead.
 
2017-09-28 12:08:00 PM  

Linux_Yes: Egoy3k: Ambivalence: I won't say I'm ready, but I do have a plan.

My plan involves a shotgun, how about yours?

Live by the sword die by the sword.


Live by the sword, shot by those who don't.
 
2017-09-28 12:21:27 PM  
0 car payments (paid off), 0 mortgage (paid off), less than $1k on cc at any given time, divested from stock market into bonds, etc., plenty of liquidity...I guess I'm as shored up as I can get for the inevitable crash that is the result of all Republican administrations. Looks like all I need to do is buy guns and canned food.
 
2017-09-28 12:37:00 PM  

SomeAmerican: I'm also expecting a crash.  The S&P 500 has increased 25% since the beginning of last year, and there is no rational economic reason for it.  The market seems to be behaving opposite to the way it should... every new risk causes it to jump another % or two.

My wife and I have responded by pulling out of the markets and investing in our business instead.


The market has already priced in Trump's corporate tax reduction and tax holiday on cash stashed over seas.

If Trump can't deliver, the markets will correct.
 
2017-09-28 12:46:27 PM  
Hollywood is obviously out of ideas. I probably won't go to see it unless they manage to reassemble the members of the original cast.
 
2017-09-28 12:49:19 PM  

TedCruz'sCrazyDad: SomeAmerican: I'm also expecting a crash.  The S&P 500 has increased 25% since the beginning of last year, and there is no rational economic reason for it.  The market seems to be behaving opposite to the way it should... every new risk causes it to jump another % or two.

My wife and I have responded by pulling out of the markets and investing in our business instead.

The market has already priced in Trump's corporate tax reduction and tax holiday on cash stashed over seas.  If Trump can't deliver, the markets will correct.


Priced in that, plus a ton.  The economy did not grow 25% in the last 18 months, nor will cutting corporate taxes increase company valuations by 25% in the next 18 months.

It's all irrational hope that Trump will somehow unlock a Golden Age... through ignorance and economic mismanagement, I guess.

Sooner or later though irrational exuberance becomes irrational despair, and the markets will plunge.
 
2017-09-28 12:56:50 PM  
So we're to the "Could we crash?" Stage of things. I'm not seriously worried until they proceed to "Experts say there is no reason to panic" stage.

A couple months ago I cashed out my portfolio (30% growth in a year, not including dividends!) For some house renovations. I am stashing cash in a "high interest" savings account for now. Not the best rate, but it's insured, which at least means if things really go to pot I have a chance of getting my money back. I don't like how insane the markets are acting right now so I am chilling on the side.

I'm actually in a really good spot. House paid for, zero debt of any kind, just got a raise, the renovation tripled the house's insulation so Winter ought to be a lot cheaper. So if the market crashes I am in a position to do very well.

I actually do hope nothing bad happens, since a lot of people aren't able to just remove their funds from the market since they're in retirement funds and the like. I'd like to be wrong about the coming crash and would happily forgo the money I could make, but there is just too much crazy shiat going on right now for the market to not go even more insane.
 
2017-09-28 01:01:16 PM  

Tr0mBoNe: snocone: Tr0mBoNe: Pinner: Well, cash on hand helps.
When your 401k loses 30-40% like last time, buy in heavy.
Buy in on most any major long term stock that takes a 25-30% hit.
/Wait 3-5 years
//Profit
///The Ronco investment strategy.

I made back my losses from 2008 in 2009. The recovery was pretty quick... it ended up being a lost year since I didn't actually make any moves on any of my long term investments. Over the past couple months, I've been selling out of several of my more risky investments, but I intend on keeping all of my long term stuff and just buying more when it dips severely. Index funds FTW.

So, your paper begat more paper.
So good.

Yep! You know, being how the economy works and all. What did you think I was investing for?


For the banks of course.
 
2017-09-28 01:31:52 PM  
Was the Obvious tag off talking to its broker?  Trump will be the third Republican president in a row to crash the banking system because he doesn't like regulations.
 
2017-09-28 01:48:56 PM  
For anyone so inclined to learn a little more about this Odd Lots podcast just finished a series on bubbles.  Pretty interesting and revelant listening, especially the first one discussing 1929.
 
2017-09-28 02:08:42 PM  

Tell Me How My Blog Tastes: Egoy3k: Ambivalence: I won't say I'm ready, but I do have a plan.

My plan involves a shotgun, how about yours?

Definitely more than 1 long range, high-powered rifle and a lot of ammo. If it comes to shotguns it's already too late, they're upon you. Better have your claymores set up. Always live on the high ground. It's easier to shoot down, and targets move slower running up a hill. Or so I've heard.


Shotgun is easier to pull the trigger when the business end is in your mouth.
 
2017-09-28 02:17:56 PM  

lilbjorn: Was the Obvious tag off talking to its broker?  Trump will be the third Republican president in a row to crash the banking system because he doesn't like regulations.


Are you thinking of the Savings & Loan crisis? That was Reagan. You're skipping Bush I who, while he did bequeath a recession to Clinton, didn't have a banking crisis on his watch. Well, I guess it ended in '95 which would tar both Bush I and Clinton.

Either way I am not a fan of deregulation, as I've made abundantly clear in the business thread yesterday.
 
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