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(Marketwatch)   All that talk of the stock market primed for a big drop? The Dow just posted its biggest one-day gain in nearly 4 months   ( marketwatch.com) divider line
    More: Unlikely, Dow Jones Industrial Average, best single-session climb, President Donald Trump, average daily volume, shares, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq Composite Index, best daily point-and-percentage  
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537 clicks; posted to Business » on 23 Aug 2017 at 12:03 AM (16 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



42 Comments     (+0 »)
 
View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest
 
2017-08-22 08:02:38 PM  
Because the market never rises sharply before a crash.
 
2017-08-22 08:05:54 PM  
Yes, we've all heard the old adage, "What goes up must continue to go up in perpetuity and can never go down." How true that is.
 
2017-08-22 08:10:54 PM  
Greed is good.
 
2017-08-22 08:24:35 PM  
Icarus.
 
2017-08-22 08:59:31 PM  
#hermesscarf
 
2017-08-22 10:26:39 PM  
The market has the foundation for a solid growth for awhile still.  The elements of growth have been built up for some time now.

What could cause large down shocks is the insanity at the heart of the government at the moment.  And its inherent instability.
 
2017-08-23 12:03:36 AM  
It's true that every time the stock market posts record gains, then there's no historical instance where the stock market tanked in less than six months after those record gains.

Or, wait. I think that's really wrong.
 
2017-08-23 12:09:02 AM  
SELL!
 
2017-08-23 12:09:32 AM  
The market also posted record gains before October 24, 1929.

/ don't shake hands with the mayor of Shantytown.
 
2017-08-23 12:10:30 AM  
Thanks, Trump!
 
2017-08-23 12:19:27 AM  
4 months!

With a sample size that large, there's no way this cherry-picked datum could be misleading.
 
2017-08-23 12:39:28 AM  

mcmnky: 4 months!

With a sample size that large, there's no way this cherry-picked datum could be misleading.


Disco Stu agrees
img.fark.netView Full Size
 
2017-08-23 12:57:31 AM  
I can't help but think the market is tensed up for how Trump farks everyone
 
2017-08-23 01:08:45 AM  

wildcardjack: I can't help but think the market is tensed up for how Trump farks everyone


The VIX dropped like 14% today...because reasons.   And its been at record lows with just a few blips for months.   On and on it floats, calm as Hindu cows, while the country burns to the ground around it.  My theory is that anyone involved in the markets is jacked to the eyeballs on Xanax right now just to keep from coming unglued on a daily basis.   So everyone that might get panicky and start the flood isn't in the state of mind to care.   How ironic that the path to market stability might be making the country too unhinged to handle sober.
 
2017-08-23 01:10:52 AM  
A lot of automated trading is programmed to buy on dips.  So rebounds like this following a decline aren't surprising.  Earnings growth is decelerating even as the ratio between price and earnings continues to increase.  We're hitting full employment yet growth and productivity are running into a wall (with indications that there are labor shortages in certain sectors) in part because our labor force participation rate has declined to a level we haven't seen since the Carter Administration.
 
2017-08-23 02:15:16 AM  
My company's stock is controlled by the housing market.  Go out and buy houses and if you already own, refinance.  I don't care about your reasons not to..."It's not the right time," "Rates could be lower", "Trump is too unpredictable to buy/refinance now"  Phah.  You people just need to get my stock back up.

/;o)
 
2017-08-23 05:09:49 AM  
I believe "Wacky" Al Greenspan called it "irrational exuberance," but he's a poopyhead. I've invested heavily in derivatives based on Tulip bulb growers and the housing market, so the sky's the limit.
 
2017-08-23 06:03:20 AM  
As you can see from the chart we are absolutely due for a crash right now

68.media.tumblr.comView Full Size
 
2017-08-23 06:18:40 AM  
Here's a better example

This is what the doom sayers are looking at

crystalinks.comView Full Size


This is what they say that image is

encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.comView Full Size


Isn't it obvious?
 
2017-08-23 06:43:15 AM  
Fortuntely the stock market has never tanked. Its been a positive line since 2009, and I'm pretty sure nothing bad happened before that.
img.fark.netView Full Size
 
2017-08-23 07:40:04 AM  
The market will probably drop sharply sometimes within the next few years.

Some blind squirrel will time it right...but not you.

Some others will sell way too early, buy back too late, and still feel like they "called it"...that's probably you.
 
2017-08-23 08:22:34 AM  
"Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful" - Warren Buffet

And seriously, don't try to market time. Pick an asset allocation you are comfortable with (X% stocks, Y% bonds) and re-balance to that once or twice a year.

The big banks like Goldman Sachs hire very smart people whose entire lives are devoted to trying to be able to time the market, with all the resources in the world backing them, and even they can't do it. What makes you think that you can predict the market better than them?
 
2017-08-23 08:34:39 AM  

Cyberluddite: Yes, we've all heard the old adage, "What goes up must continue to go up in perpetuity and can never go down." How true that is.


see Federal Spending for one
 
2017-08-23 08:50:32 AM  

WhoGAS: My company's stock is controlled by the housing market.  Go out and buy houses and if you already own, refinance.  I don't care about your reasons not to..."It's not the right time," "Rates could be lower", "Trump is too unpredictable to buy/refinance now"  Phah.  You people just need to get my stock back up.

/;o)


Mrs. Kitty and I have been toying with the idea of buying a small piece of property with a little house before shiat hits the fan, whether it's in the form of higher interest rates, economic downturn, war, total economic collapse, etc. It makes more sense than renting at this point, and we know how to garden and can things.
 
2017-08-23 09:42:32 AM  

1nsanilicious: As you can see from the chart we are absolutely due for a crash right now

[68.media.tumblr.com image 500x295]


"Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections or trying to anticipate corrections than has been lost in the corrections themselves."

 
img.fark.netView Full Size

Lynch managed the Magellan Fund for Fidelity for 20 years. On average, the Magellan Fund's growth rate almost doubled the growth of the S&P 500 during that era.

I'm gonna take Lynch's advice on investing before I listen to the consensus of Fark's top men.
 
2017-08-23 09:48:42 AM  
Hooray, a happy ending for the rich people!
 
2017-08-23 10:05:01 AM  
Down today, gold up, CNN says extreme fear at 18, the lowest I remember.

Good speech by Drumpf Monday, bad Tuesday. Investors are starting to realize he is a lame duck, and very little of what he says matters. Shutdown, build the wall, destroy NAFTA. They aren't pulling back like I'd expect.

There's no hope on tax reform soon, and President Tantrum could kill a deal on the debt ceiling. And, democrats could push to the brink to show they have power still. As long as we avoid a credit downgrade, it should be okay.

I don't like where this is going, but there's still time on the clock. Not looking forward to January. End of year and seasonal corrections could be real bad assuming improvement stalls.
 
2017-08-23 10:12:47 AM  

recondite cetacean: Down today, gold up, CNN says extreme fear at 18, the lowest I remember.

Good speech by Drumpf Monday, bad Tuesday. Investors are starting to realize he is a lame duck, and very little of what he says matters. Shutdown, build the wall, destroy NAFTA. They aren't pulling back like I'd expect.

There's no hope on tax reform soon, and President Tantrum could kill a deal on the debt ceiling. And, democrats could push to the brink to show they have power still. As long as we avoid a credit downgrade, it should be okay.

I don't like where this is going, but there's still time on the clock. Not looking forward to January. End of year and seasonal corrections could be real bad assuming improvement stalls.


It's down 0.3%, not exactly much.
 
2017-08-23 10:30:35 AM  
Also, any serious economic predictions are largely flatulence.

But I would suggest saving money now to put in QQQ or SPY in a year or three.

You should ignore that advice and put it in as you can, and ignore the losses.
 
2017-08-23 10:46:44 AM  

machoprogrammer: The big banks like Goldman Sachs hire very smart people whose entire lives are devoted to trying to be able to time the market, with all the resources in the world backing them, and even they can't do it. What makes you think that you can predict the market better than them?


Yeah that. The "big guys" are wrong all the time, and no market is completely efficient. But you have to ask yourself the question on any given trade -- who am I buying this stock from, and am I confident that they're not screwing me?
 
2017-08-23 11:10:04 AM  

machoprogrammer: recondite cetacean: Down today, gold up, CNN says extreme fear at 18, the lowest I remember.

Good speech by Drumpf Monday, bad Tuesday. Investors are starting to realize he is a lame duck, and very little of what he says matters. Shutdown, build the wall, destroy NAFTA. They aren't pulling back like I'd expect.

There's no hope on tax reform soon, and President Tantrum could kill a deal on the debt ceiling. And, democrats could push to the brink to show they have power still. As long as we avoid a credit downgrade, it should be okay.

I don't like where this is going, but there's still time on the clock. Not looking forward to January. End of year and seasonal corrections could be real bad assuming improvement stalls.

It's down 0.3%, not exactly much.


The DJIA needs a split.  The number is getting too large but our expectations on swings have not caught up.
 
2017-08-23 11:24:46 AM  
The only reason anyone is talking about the stock market taking a big hit is cause they want to lay as much blame as they can on Trump for anything bad that happens.
 
2017-08-23 11:59:03 AM  

WhoGAS: My company's stock is controlled by the housing market.  Go out and buy houses and if you already own, refinance.  I don't care about your reasons not to..."It's not the right time," "Rates could be lower", "Trump is too unpredictable to buy/refinance now"  Phah.  You people just need to get my stock back up.

/;o)


I just bought a house last month if that helps...

Partly because of Trump being unpredictable... rental income is more stable than the stock market. :)
 
2017-08-23 11:59:56 AM  

mrsleep: The only reason anyone is talking about the stock market taking a big hit is cause they want to lay as much blame as they can on Trump for anything bad that happens.


LOL. As much as he will deserve some of the blame, no... we're talking about the stock market because a lot of us have 401k's that are mostly invested in stocks.
 
2017-08-23 12:08:09 PM  

machoprogrammer: "Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful" - Warren Buffet

And seriously, don't try to market time. Pick an asset allocation you are comfortable with (X% stocks, Y% bonds) and re-balance to that once or twice a year.


Seems like you're contradicting yourself there...
 
2017-08-23 12:12:13 PM  
I guarantee the market will drop!
I just wont tell you when or how much!
 
2017-08-23 12:15:34 PM  
Watch what happens as soon as Tax reform fails the 1st time.
 
2017-08-23 12:29:10 PM  
gotta scale up a cliff before one's able to go flailing off it

/shrug
 
2017-08-23 01:18:54 PM  
I'm 51 and have never tried to time anything in the market my entire life through the tech bubble, 9/11, and banking crisis. But lately I'm in need of rebalancing - rather than do it now I just sold everything but 20% of equity exposure at the end of July and I'll true up and get back to my asset allocation after I take a little break. I don't recommend anyone else do this because trying to time the market is dumb... but I think I'm just going to sit this market out for a little while. If I miss some upside I can live with that. I see a lot more downside than up at these levels. Also, I love stock market threads but can we start using total market or S&P 500 or something rather than the stupid farking DJIA? I know it's traditional but we stopped using printing teletypes years ago too. There are far better indicators of what the market is doing than the outdated Dow. No one cares about the Dow anymore.
 
2017-08-23 01:23:58 PM  

machoprogrammer: "Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful" - Warren Buffet


This works great when you have enough money to think generationally and have enormous resources. You can make large acquisitions when no one is buying because you know that whether it takes one day or ten, solid companies will rebound when market conditions improve.

And seriously, don't try to market time. Pick an asset allocation you are comfortable with (X% stocks, Y% bonds) and re-balance to that once or twice a year.

And this is how regular people should do it and I think this is how the smart money acts among regular folk. I am breaking my own rule and going against this advice and sitting on the sidelines at the moment. If I miss a big spike, I miss a big spike. I'll live.
 
2017-08-23 01:44:20 PM  

recondite cetacean: Also, any serious economic predictions are largely flatulence.

But I would suggest saving money now to put in QQQ or SPY in a year or three.

You should ignore that advice and put it in as you can, and ignore the losses.


For fark's sake don't buy SPY. The DJIA is a terrible index.  Buy something that tracks the S&P500.
 
2017-08-23 01:53:40 PM  

Telos: machoprogrammer: "Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful" - Warren Buffet

And seriously, don't try to market time. Pick an asset allocation you are comfortable with (X% stocks, Y% bonds) and re-balance to that once or twice a year.

Seems like you're contradicting yourself there...


No I am not. You keep the asset allocation and stay the course. Market timing is a fool's errand. But the folks on this site just jerking themselves every time the market goes down minor amounts because they can blame it on Trump and saying "THE CRASH IS COMING!" are annoying and likely wrong.
 
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