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(Five Thirty-Eight)   Stats prove that Goose Gossage was better than Mariano Rivera   ( fivethirtyeight.com) divider line
    More: Obvious, Baseball, goose eggs, Relief pitcher, goose egg, Closer, Goose Gossage, Rollie Fingers, Bullpen  
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592 clicks; posted to Sports » on 17 Apr 2017 at 6:20 PM (26 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



37 Comments     (+0 »)
 
View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest
 
2017-04-17 04:35:33 PM  
And once again, advanced metrics prove that Lee Smith is an HOFer.
 
2017-04-17 04:51:59 PM  
I like deep baseball stats, but I do shy away from some that go too deep.  I will always say the "save" is one stat that needs more thinking, and quite enjoyed this article's idea.

The goal being, of course, to win the game.  Not pad stats (or play toward stats, which is a more accurate statement of what is going on.)

I also don't like the whole 9th-inning-only closer.  At all.
 
2017-04-17 05:48:34 PM  
The guy was an outstanding closer, but the Yankee/Red Sox hype machine and these retirement tour roadshows are ridiculous.  If Rivera had pitched for the San Diego Padres his whole career you'd barely know his name.
 
2017-04-17 06:29:08 PM  

clodcomplex: The guy was an outstanding closer, but the Yankee/Red Sox hype machine and these retirement tour roadshows are ridiculous.  If Rivera had pitched for the San Diego Padres his whole career you'd barely know his name.


We've found Trevor Hoffman's Fark handle.
 
2017-04-17 06:34:13 PM  
As a Texas Rangers fan ready to crucify Sam Dyson, I wholeheartedly agree.....
 
2017-04-17 06:47:19 PM  
Nate Silver is wrong about everything these days.

Mariano pitched in the farking Steroid Era.  He would have crushed everyone in the 70s and 80s when Gossage pitched.
 
2017-04-17 06:53:28 PM  

downstairs: I like deep baseball stats, but I do shy away from some that go too deep.  I will always say the "save" is one stat that needs more thinking, and quite enjoyed this article's idea.

The goal being, of course, to win the game.  Not pad stats (or play toward stats, which is a more accurate statement of what is going on.)

I also don't like the whole 9th-inning-only closer.  At all.


Yep. Rivera rarely had to get any significant number of outs.

Gossage had over *fifty* saves where he recorded at least seven outs. Rivera had *one*. Hoffman had *two*.
 
2017-04-17 07:02:39 PM  

The Bestest: clodcomplex: The guy was an outstanding closer, but the Yankee/Red Sox hype machine and these retirement tour roadshows are ridiculous.  If Rivera had pitched for the San Diego Padres his whole career you'd barely know his name.

We've found Trevor Hoffman's Fark handle.


Who?
 
2017-04-17 07:09:30 PM  

gameshowhost: downstairs: I like deep baseball stats, but I do shy away from some that go too deep.  I will always say the "save" is one stat that needs more thinking, and quite enjoyed this article's idea.

The goal being, of course, to win the game.  Not pad stats (or play toward stats, which is a more accurate statement of what is going on.)

I also don't like the whole 9th-inning-only closer.  At all.

Yep. Rivera rarely had to get any significant number of outs.

Gossage had over *fifty* saves where he recorded at least seven outs. Rivera had *one*. Hoffman had *two*.


Yep. The Goose was called in when he needed to save his manager's goose from getting cooked in the 7th or 8th innings, when his team was either in a tie game, or 1 run either side of the tie, and keep the other team from scoring while hoping his team scored 1-3 runs themselves. If your team was playing against the Goose, and you saw him coming out of the bullpen, you usually prayed that he would either have a bad day or that your own pitchers could keep up with the Goose.
 
2017-04-17 07:57:16 PM  
yeah, but goose is batshiat crazy and doesn't like nerds and their fancy stats anyway
 
2017-04-17 07:57:58 PM  
img.fark.net
 
2017-04-17 07:59:17 PM  

ClavellBCMI: gameshowhost: downstairs: I like deep baseball stats, but I do shy away from some that go too deep.  I will always say the "save" is one stat that needs more thinking, and quite enjoyed this article's idea.

The goal being, of course, to win the game.  Not pad stats (or play toward stats, which is a more accurate statement of what is going on.)

I also don't like the whole 9th-inning-only closer.  At all.

Yep. Rivera rarely had to get any significant number of outs.

Gossage had over *fifty* saves where he recorded at least seven outs. Rivera had *one*. Hoffman had *two*.

Yep. The Goose was called in when he needed to save his manager's goose from getting cooked in the 7th or 8th innings, when his team was either in a tie game, or 1 run either side of the tie, and keep the other team from scoring while hoping his team scored 1-3 runs themselves. If your team was playing against the Goose, and you saw him coming out of the bullpen, you usually prayed that he would either have a bad day or that your own pitchers could keep up with the Goose.


The one two punch of Ron Davis/Goose Gossage meant your ass.
 
2017-04-17 08:15:35 PM  
I found this article to be really interesting. I like that Nate Silver also made sure his new stat had a fairly simple definition in that people could calculate it themselves (though not as easily as a save or a hold).

Goose Gossage drove me crazy because he actively campaigned for the hall of fame. He also drove me crazy because he couldn't figure out how to campaign for that HOF spot without criticizing Rivera. He didn't seem to understand that people thinking Rivera was a great reliever didn't mean people thought he was bad.
 
2017-04-17 08:24:12 PM  
I like it when a team has a ninth inning closer.  The opponents know only a few guys will even get a chance against him and there's psychology involved.
/ If you don't like it, don't be losing in the ninth inning.
 
Oak
2017-04-17 08:59:57 PM  

Jeteupthemiddle: I found this article to be really interesting. I like that Nate Silver also made sure his new stat had a fairly simple definition in that people could calculate it themselves (though not as easily as a save or a hold).

Goose Gossage drove me crazy because he actively campaigned for the hall of fame. He also drove me crazy because he couldn't figure out how to campaign for that HOF spot without criticizing Rivera. He didn't seem to understand that people thinking Rivera was a great reliever didn't mean people thought he was bad.


Exactly this.  Anyone who watched both of them pitch would say they were both historically great.  That's before looking at the stats.
 
2017-04-17 09:02:26 PM  
"If everybody in that [bleep]ing bullpen can't save a three-run lead for one inning, they shouldn't even be in the big leagues."

I can't argue with a word of that. Bringing in your best pitcher with the bases empty doesn't make a lot of sense to me, either.
 
2017-04-17 09:22:22 PM  

ChrisDe: "If everybody in that [bleep]ing bullpen can't save a three-run lead for one inning, they shouldn't even be in the big leagues."

I can't argue with a word of that. Bringing in your best pitcher with the bases empty doesn't make a lot of sense to me, either.


Hey Goose, about those 112 blown saves of yours...
 
2017-04-17 09:26:33 PM  
W.C.fields forever:
The one two punch of Ron Davis/Goose Gossage meant your ass.

Rivera and Wetteland was just as vicious.

( and did you ever wonder what nolan ryan would have been like as a Goose Gossage style reliever with that damn near perfect delivery? )
 
2017-04-17 10:25:57 PM  
Kirk Muthafarking Gibson.
 
rka
2017-04-17 11:39:34 PM  

PowerSlacker: Nate Silver is wrong about everything these days.

Mariano pitched in the farking Steroid Era.  He would have crushed everyone in the 70s and 80s when Gossage pitched.


Let's it him without the roids in that case.

/oh, that wasn't the angle you were going for?
 
rka
2017-04-17 11:40:50 PM  

rka: Let's it him without the roids in that case.


let's see him...etc, etc.
 
2017-04-18 03:15:40 AM  

The Googles Do Nothing: Kirk Muthafarking Gibson.


Now with video and Sparky providing the commentary track:

"Detroit Tigers" "Kirk Gibson" World Series Home Run Off "Goose Gossage" "You Don't Wanna Walk Him!"
Youtube dmukTdo-WuY


"He don't wanna walk you!  No, don't walk him!"
 
2017-04-18 05:07:15 AM  
downstairs:

I suggest keeping an eye on the Reds in that case. Bryan Price has made some interesting bullpen decisions so far this year, and compared to their Frontier-league level pen last year it's a step up. Granted he's also covering for a dilapidated SP corps made up of rookies, castoffs, and Bronson Arroyo's corpse with a pitching machine stuffed into it.
 
2017-04-18 08:08:16 AM  
Absolutely agree 100%.  The save is such a garbage stat.  I'd advocate that Silver's Goose Egg could use some tweaks.  For example, being up 3 runs in the 7th with 2 outs, runners on 1st and 2nd would be a goose egg opportunity if you get out of the inning. (Assuming I'm understanding his #2 qualifier of the new stat, the 3 options are "or" statements, so while your team would be up by more than 2 runs, the tying run would be at bat)   Is that a high leverage scenario?  Eh, I guess.  The guy could hit a bases clearing double and you'd still be up a run (wouldn't get a goose egg either, but the opportunity was there).   Still though, it's a million times better than the save in terms of actually rewarding solid relief performances.

There's so many times managers end up just sticking their closer in to get work when they haven't appeared for 3 or 4 games because the 9th inning hasn't been a save opportunity.  Either because his team is raking and is up by more than 3 or his team is on a bad slide and the game is already out of reach by the 9th (in which case you probably should have brought your closer in before it got to that point).  As Silver points out, using your best bullpen arm in this fashion is incredibly inefficient and baseball's reluctance to shift methodology is a bit puzzling.
 
2017-04-18 08:14:32 AM  
I like it, other than the continuing myth of the replacement player. It gives recognition to relievers prior to 1980, and consistent conversion rates for the length of the live-ball era make for a good statistic. Even if you're a stathead, when was the last time you saw Ted Abernathy mentioned? He dropped a full decade of sub-3 ERA relief on the leagues.
 
2017-04-18 09:40:31 AM  
I met Goose around 2001 at a corporate thing, and talked to him about this very point, told him he belonged in the the HOF since he's come on in the 7th with 2 runners on and finish the game.  He sounded like he really appreciated the sentiment.  For all the bluster, he seemed pretty cool.
 
2017-04-18 09:50:21 AM  
Other than being long as fu*k that was a great article.
 
2017-04-18 10:06:14 AM  

rka: PowerSlacker: Nate Silver is wrong about everything these days.

Mariano pitched in the farking Steroid Era.  He would have crushed everyone in the 70s and 80s when Gossage pitched.

Let's it him without the roids in that case.

/oh, that wasn't the angle you were going for?


Rivera is the one guy from that era that I think didn't juice.

If he did, he should get a refund.
 
2017-04-18 10:25:24 AM  

RevLovejoy: I met Goose around 2001 at a corporate thing, and talked to him about this very point, told him he belonged in the the HOF since he's come on in the 7th with 2 runners on and finish the game.  He sounded like he really appreciated the sentiment.  For all the bluster, he seemed pretty cool.


When you told a mostly forgotten about guy that you thought he was one of the greatest, he was nice to you? Interesting.
 
2017-04-18 11:23:16 AM  

IAmRight: RevLovejoy: I met Goose around 2001 at a corporate thing, and talked to him about this very point, told him he belonged in the the HOF since he's come on in the 7th with 2 runners on and finish the game.  He sounded like he really appreciated the sentiment.  For all the bluster, he seemed pretty cool.

When you told a mostly forgotten about guy that you thought he was one of the greatest, he was nice to you? Interesting.


Huh?
 
2017-04-18 01:27:37 PM  

John Buck 41: IAmRight: RevLovejoy: I met Goose around 2001 at a corporate thing, and talked to him about this very point, told him he belonged in the the HOF since he's come on in the 7th with 2 runners on and finish the game.  He sounded like he really appreciated the sentiment.  For all the bluster, he seemed pretty cool.

When you told a mostly forgotten about guy that you thought he was one of the greatest, he was nice to you? Interesting.

Huh?


If 99.9% of Americans ran into Goose Gossage on the street, they wouldn't know him from you or me.
 
2017-04-18 02:13:13 PM  

IAmRight: John Buck 41: IAmRight: RevLovejoy: I met Goose around 2001 at a corporate thing, and talked to him about this very point, told him he belonged in the the HOF since he's come on in the 7th with 2 runners on and finish the game.  He sounded like he really appreciated the sentiment.  For all the bluster, he seemed pretty cool.

When you told a mostly forgotten about guy that you thought he was one of the greatest, he was nice to you? Interesting.

Huh?

If 99.9% of Americans ran into Goose Gossage on the street, they wouldn't know him from you or me.


But a lot who follow sports would recognize the name. I wouldn't recognize most Hollywood stars without their perfect makeup. Or musicians outside of concerts or videos. If I saw Tom Cruise on the street, it wouldn't register unless it was pointed out.
 
2017-04-18 02:58:45 PM  

IAmRight: John Buck 41: IAmRight: RevLovejoy: I met Goose around 2001 at a corporate thing, and talked to him about this very point, told him he belonged in the the HOF since he's come on in the 7th with 2 runners on and finish the game.  He sounded like he really appreciated the sentiment.  For all the bluster, he seemed pretty cool.

When you told a mostly forgotten about guy that you thought he was one of the greatest, he was nice to you? Interesting.

Huh?

If 99.9% of Americans ran into Goose Gossage on the street, they wouldn't know him from you or me.


Did he shave off his mustache or something?
 
2017-04-18 05:34:34 PM  

IAmRight: John Buck 41: IAmRight: RevLovejoy: I met Goose around 2001 at a corporate thing, and talked to him about this very point, told him he belonged in the the HOF since he's come on in the 7th with 2 runners on and finish the game.  He sounded like he really appreciated the sentiment.  For all the bluster, he seemed pretty cool.

When you told a mostly forgotten about guy that you thought he was one of the greatest, he was nice to you? Interesting.

Huh?

If 99.9% of Americans ran into Goose Gossage on the street, they wouldn't know him from you or me.


'Cept we're talking 16 years ago. Even a 70's-80's casual baseball would've recognized him.
 
2017-04-18 06:05:33 PM  

BolloxReader: IAmRight: John Buck 41: IAmRight: RevLovejoy: I met Goose around 2001 at a corporate thing, and talked to him about this very point, told him he belonged in the the HOF since he's come on in the 7th with 2 runners on and finish the game.  He sounded like he really appreciated the sentiment.  For all the bluster, he seemed pretty cool.

When you told a mostly forgotten about guy that you thought he was one of the greatest, he was nice to you? Interesting.

Huh?

If 99.9% of Americans ran into Goose Gossage on the street, they wouldn't know him from you or me.

But a lot who follow sports would recognize the name. I wouldn't recognize most Hollywood stars without their perfect makeup. Or musicians outside of concerts or videos. If I saw Tom Cruise on the street, it wouldn't register unless it was pointed out.


Yes, a lot of people would know the name. But almost none would know anything about him. You're right about stars - the easy ones to recognize are NBA players, mainly because it's hard to disguise being 7 feet tall.
 
2017-04-18 06:10:41 PM  

John Buck 41: IAmRight: John Buck 41: IAmRight: RevLovejoy: I met Goose around 2001 at a corporate thing, and talked to him about this very point, told him he belonged in the the HOF since he's come on in the 7th with 2 runners on and finish the game.  He sounded like he really appreciated the sentiment.  For all the bluster, he seemed pretty cool.

When you told a mostly forgotten about guy that you thought he was one of the greatest, he was nice to you? Interesting.

Huh?

If 99.9% of Americans ran into Goose Gossage on the street, they wouldn't know him from you or me.

'Cept we're talking 16 years ago. Even a 70's-80's casual baseball would've recognized him.


Just because you know who someone is doesn't mean that's a largely-known thing.

If anyone introduced him as Rich Gossage, I'd bet more than half of the people that HAVE heard of him wouldn't know who he is. He was a baseball relief pitcher in an era where there wasn't nearly as much media coverage. Let's not pretend he's getting people coming up to him all the time asking for autographs.
 
2017-04-18 09:22:08 PM  
IAmRight: Jesus. Whatever, kiddo. You're like debating a fu*king brick wall.
 
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