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(Daily Mail)   Brexit will start March 29th   ( dailymail.co.uk) divider line
    More: Spiffy, Deputy Political Editor, Editing, Tim Sculthorpe, James Tapsfield, EDT  
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7248 clicks; posted to Main » on 20 Mar 2017 at 1:20 PM (21 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2017-03-20 11:54:36 AM  
Yay!
 
2017-03-20 12:18:28 PM  
Let's see what Scotland does.  England isn't going to be happy if they decide to stay in the EU.
 
2017-03-20 12:19:58 PM  
Downing Street insisting Mrs May is ready to 'walk away' if there is an attempt to punish us for leaving

That's a great way to get stuck with WTO rules after the clock runs out.
 
2017-03-20 12:35:59 PM  

Marcus Aurelius: Let's see what Scotland does.  England isn't going to be happy if they decide to stay in the EU.


For one, Scotland cannot "stay in the EU". They will be leaving either way. The EU have said they will have to apply from scratch. Secondly the SNP said they won't apply to join the EU because a lot of their supporters are anti EU, but Nicola Sturgeon has now walked back on that statement. Either way, they'll be leaving the EU.

And secondly, if they choose to leave and join the EU why would England be upset? Many don't want them to leave, but if they leave why would we not want them to do what they want?

Marcus Aurelius: Downing Street insisting Mrs May is ready to 'walk away' if there is an attempt to punish us for leaving

That's a great way to get stuck with WTO rules after the clock runs out.


Making it clear you are prepared to walk is the best way to get a good deal. That's why Cameron got such a terrible deal before the vote. He'd made it clear he would support whatever deal he got, no matter how good or bad it was.
 
2017-03-20 12:39:12 PM  
EU:  well...bye!
 
2017-03-20 12:40:27 PM  
So...April fools?
 
2017-03-20 01:23:36 PM  

MaudlinMutantMollusk: So...April fools?


Well, it is the Daily Mail, after all. The journalistic equivalent of groundhogs forecasting an early spring...
 
2017-03-20 01:24:09 PM  
spiffy tag sponsored by Russia?
 
2017-03-20 01:24:18 PM  
img.fark.net
 
2017-03-20 01:25:57 PM  
It's the most important meal of the day
 
2017-03-20 01:26:09 PM  
#MEGA
 
2017-03-20 01:26:45 PM  
i3.kym-cdn.com
 
2017-03-20 01:27:55 PM  

Marcus Aurelius: Downing Street insisting Mrs May is ready to 'walk away' if there is an attempt to punish us for leaving

That's a great way to get stuck with WTO rules after the clock runs out.


You know, if I was the EU negotiator, my preferred strategy would be to get the UK to adhere to what would effectively be the same deal it has now, minus a few bennies to make the point that temper tantrums have consequences.  Of course, after that little bon mot from Her Imperial Twatness, my starting position would be that the British Isles was to be made the Belgian Congo of Europe - and I would ratchet it downward every time Viscount Warblyspanker harrumphed.  Because at some point, you just tell the farkers to burn.
 
2017-03-20 01:30:25 PM  

Ron Vibbentrop: And secondly, if they choose to leave and join the EU why would England be upset? Many don't want them to leave, but if they leave why would we not want them to do what they want?


If Scotland were in the EU while England and Wales (neither the term "United Kingdom" nor "Britain" would apply anymore) were not, then a bunch of important banking would move from London to Edinburgh so they could continue to benefit from "being in the EU."
 
2017-03-20 01:31:11 PM  
Good thing they didnt drop the pound.
 
2017-03-20 01:32:14 PM  
Just let me know when the Germans take Paris.
 
2017-03-20 01:34:54 PM  

Ron Vibbentrop: Making it clear you are prepared to walk is the best way to get a good deal.


Not when the other party knows walking away is worse for you.
 
2017-03-20 01:35:00 PM  

Marcus Aurelius: Downing Street insisting Mrs May is ready to 'walk away' if there is an attempt to punish us for leaving

That's a great way to get stuck with WTO rules after the clock runs out.


I'm confused.  Brexit is 'walking away', what is the negotiating strategy here?  If you don't give us what we want, we're still leaving!

Ok?  Bye?
 
2017-03-20 01:37:39 PM  
img.fark.net
 
2017-03-20 01:39:28 PM  

Ron Vibbentrop: That's why Cameron got such a terrible deal before the vote


What deal was that?  I must have missed the terrible deal they had, because I don't remember a terrible deal.  There was a rash of xenophobia, and then Cameron up and decides he's going to have a referendum on staying in the EU.  That's how this whole mess started.  I think?
 
2017-03-20 01:40:10 PM  

flondrix: Ron Vibbentrop: And secondly, if they choose to leave and join the EU why would England be upset? Many don't want them to leave, but if they leave why would we not want them to do what they want?

If Scotland were in the EU while England and Wales (neither the term "United Kingdom" nor "Britain" would apply anymore) were not, then a bunch of important banking would move from London to Edinburgh so they could continue to benefit from "being in the EU."


Imagine the black market opportunities over the border.
 
2017-03-20 01:40:43 PM  

squegeebooo: Marcus Aurelius: Downing Street insisting Mrs May is ready to 'walk away' if there is an attempt to punish us for leaving

That's a great way to get stuck with WTO rules after the clock runs out.

I'm confused.  Brexit is 'walking away', what is the negotiating strategy here?  If you don't give us what we want, we're still leaving!

Ok?  Bye?


They close their borders and stop all trade with the rest of Europe? A bold strategy, let's see how that works out for them.
 
2017-03-20 01:40:44 PM  
At least we won't have to even bother to pretend like the Premier League is worth jack shiat in a Euro tourney.
 
2017-03-20 01:41:16 PM  

Marcus Aurelius: Let's see what Scotland does.  England isn't going to be happy if they decide to stay in the EU.


Marcus Aurelius: Downing Street insisting Mrs May is ready to 'walk away' if there is an attempt to punish us for leaving

That's a great way to get stuck with WTO rules after the clock runs out.


I'm not sure the Brexiting England has cottoned to just how much its constituent nations contribute to their economy. England itself mostly just makes drugs and aircraft (and spacecraft) parts. Once they're out of the EU, the aircraft industry will relocate to the EU, leaving them with the drugs.
And they don't even have the good shiat; Scotland's got it all in Glasgow.
 
2017-03-20 01:41:49 PM  

squegeebooo: Marcus Aurelius: Downing Street insisting Mrs May is ready to 'walk away' if there is an attempt to punish us for leaving

That's a great way to get stuck with WTO rules after the clock runs out.

I'm confused.  Brexit is 'walking away', what is the negotiating strategy here?  If you don't give us what we want, we're still leaving!

Ok?  Bye?


After invoking Brexit, the EU and UK have to sit down and determine how they will disentangle themselves, and what parts of the current agreements will be retained.  It is supposed to be a two year process.  If, after two years, there is no agreement, the UK is effectively sitting there with its John Thomas in its hand.  All they would have is whatever minimal trade rights everyone gets under the WTO.  The British position is "treat us as royalty or we will blow our own dick off".  Right now, the eponymous nameless, faceless unelected bureaucrat in Brussels is scratching his head wondering why he didn't think of Brexit before in his eternal quest to ravage the Isles with nuclear fire.
 
2017-03-20 01:43:00 PM  

HotWingConspiracy: Ron Vibbentrop: Making it clear you are prepared to walk is the best way to get a good deal.

Not when the other party knows walking away is worse for you.


The EU also has to make leaving extremely unattractive for everyone else.  That means they'll take a hit now to prevent any defections later.
 
2017-03-20 01:45:29 PM  

Ron Vibbentrop: For one, Scotland cannot "stay in the EU". They will be leaving either way. The EU have said they will have to apply from scratch.


The EU has not said that. The EU has said that, frankly, it doesn't know what happens if a member state splits up. The only outright hostility comes from Spain, which is firing a shot across the bows of Catalonia.

A couple of years ago there was a theory that if the UK split, only one bit could stay in the EU. Suits us fine in Scotland. Suits them fine in England. What's not to like?
 
2017-03-20 01:47:30 PM  

Marcus Aurelius: What deal was that? I must have missed the terrible deal they had, because I don't remember a terrible deal.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35622105
 
2017-03-20 01:48:28 PM  
I take it there is no known scenario where Britain thrives without the EU?
 
2017-03-20 01:49:31 PM  

Marcus Aurelius: HotWingConspiracy: Ron Vibbentrop: Making it clear you are prepared to walk is the best way to get a good deal.

Not when the other party knows walking away is worse for you.

The EU also has to make leaving extremely unattractive for everyone else.  That means they'll take a hit now to prevent any defections later.


At this point, they aren't even going to have to take a hit.  England has declared it wants to immolate itself for funsies.  The Catalans are going to be sucking Teutonic dick so hard the Germans will be mellow for a century after this.
 
2017-03-20 01:52:38 PM  

mikaloyd: I take it there is no known scenario where Britain thrives without the EU?


As the EU counts for 80% of the UK's current export earnings... Nope. But the Spirit of the Blitz will see us through! We'll just trade with all those countries we colonised - they love us with the love a child has for a stern, violent, and emotionally-distant father.
 
2017-03-20 01:54:33 PM  

mikaloyd: I take it there is no known scenario where Britain thrives without the EU?


Considering the EU is the UK's biggest trade partner, there really isn't one where it "thrives".  The US is not going to pick up anything near the slack the UK would need to stay where they are.  Now - despite my gleeful predictions of blasted heaths - the UK will not become Somalia North.  It is too well established an economy to implode completely.  But a bad enough trade deal with the EU will probably make it Japan - stagflation up to its tits for a couple of decades.
 
2017-03-20 01:56:23 PM  

mikaloyd: I take it there is no known scenario where Britain thrives without the EU?


We'll probably end up paying what we do at the moment for the sort of deal Norway gets, which basically means we won't save any money, and we'll still be subject to all the rules but we won't have any influence over them. We'll have to allow freedom of movement one way or another because otherwise our economy will collapse, as will the NHS (40% of all NHS staff are non-UK EU; 20% of all NHS doctors are non-UK EU). Also there are a million British pensioners waiting in Spain for the sweet release of death and we don't want them back.

If we were stupid enough (or are stupid enough - Theresa May, David Davis and that idiot Fox are very much the fourth division of national politics) to try to go it completely alone then yes, we would (will) be eating rats. The swivel-eyes romantics who hark back to British greatness forget that it depended entirely on ruthless exploitation of an empire. Now all that's left is Gibraltar, and their small economy of whores and smugglers isn't going to pay for much.
 
2017-03-20 01:58:24 PM  

phalamir: If, after two years, there is no agreement, the UK is effectively sitting there with its John Thomas in its hand.


The good news is that, at that point point, EU regulations about the length and bendy-ness of said John Thomas will cease to apply.
 
2017-03-20 01:59:01 PM  

phalamir: Marcus Aurelius: Downing Street insisting Mrs May is ready to 'walk away' if there is an attempt to punish us for leaving

That's a great way to get stuck with WTO rules after the clock runs out.

You know, if I was the EU negotiator, my preferred strategy would be to get the UK to adhere to what would effectively be the same deal it has now, minus a few bennies to make the point that temper tantrums have consequences.  Of course, after that little bon mot from Her Imperial Twatness, my starting position would be that the British Isles was to be made the Belgian Congo of Europe - and I would ratchet it downward every time Viscount Warblyspanker harrumphed.  Because at some point, you just tell the farkers to burn.


I didn't get a harrumph out of that guy!
 
2017-03-20 01:59:10 PM  

Trocadero: At least we won't have to even bother to pretend like the Premier League is worth jack shiat in a Euro tourney.


Apart from the fact that, say, a German team has won the Champions League 7 times and an English team 12 times (second only to Spain with 16 wins - and 11 of those were with Real Madrid). In recent years: Liverpool won it in 2005. Man United in 2008. Chelsea in 2012 (and the year after, they won the Disneyland Mickey Mouse Europa Cup).
 
2017-03-20 01:59:15 PM  

mikaloyd: I take it there is no known scenario where Britain thrives without the EU?


I can't think of one.
The UK is a roughly 80% service economy, and they want to stop the freedom of movement from the EU, so... Yeah.

Possibly they could invest strongly in fortifying their software and film industries, as well as increasing education for health care professionals and other something-from-nothing-but-labor industries, but that's a thin hope, considering they've not been largely into that sort of thing for the last thirty years so far.
 
2017-03-20 01:59:43 PM  

phalamir: mikaloyd: I take it there is no known scenario where Britain thrives without the EU?

Considering the EU is the UK's biggest trade partner, there really isn't one where it "thrives".  The US is not going to pick up anything near the slack the UK would need to stay where they are.  Now - despite my gleeful predictions of blasted heaths - the UK will not become Somalia North.  It is too well established an economy to implode completely.  But a bad enough trade deal with the EU will probably make it Japan - stagflation up to its tits for a couple of decades.


Would all trades with the EU be lost if Britain is no longer a member?
 
2017-03-20 02:01:08 PM  

phalamir: mikaloyd: I take it there is no known scenario where Britain thrives without the EU?

Considering the EU is the UK's biggest trade partner, there really isn't one where it "thrives".  The US is not going to pick up anything near the slack the UK would need to stay where they are.  Now - despite my gleeful predictions of blasted heaths - the UK will not become Somalia North.  It is too well established an economy to implode completely.  But a bad enough trade deal with the EU will probably make it Japan - stagflation up to its tits for a couple of decades.


If it's that bad. I'm wagering many things will move out, and it isn't like the U.K. won't have to deal with all those bothersome regulations. If they want to sell in Europe, they'll need to follow them or have their products blacklisted.

Personally I predict nearly the same deal, a few points worse off (there has to be benefits of being a club member) and freedom of movement will end up staying. Too many irate pensioners would be headed home otherwise. So really little england has a sword of Damocles hanging over the negotiations.

Oh, but you are right about a lot of good jobs moving out. My current employer is moving all but essential services (lots of high paying blue and white collar jobs) to the mainland to keep its EU staff. The memo came down today: Belgium, France, and Germany are the big winners of jobs with the Netherlands getting a couple hundred. The EU banking group is leaving/gone, because why would they stay in a non-EU country? So on and so forth...
 
2017-03-20 02:04:27 PM  
RonVibbentrop:

Apt username
 
2017-03-20 02:06:41 PM  

phalamir: mikaloyd: I take it there is no known scenario where Britain thrives without the EU?

Considering the EU is the UK's biggest trade partner, there really isn't one where it "thrives".  The US is not going to pick up anything near the slack the UK would need to stay where they are.  Now - despite my gleeful predictions of blasted heaths - the UK will not become Somalia North.  It is too well established an economy to implode completely.  But a bad enough trade deal with the EU will probably make it Japan - stagflation up to its tits for a couple of decades.


I see it as in time (10 years? 20 years?) the UK will be able to get back to near the same position they are in today.  Good job, guys!
 
2017-03-20 02:08:15 PM  

mikaloyd: I take it there is no known scenario where Britain thrives without the EU?


It depends on your definition of thrive.  If your definition is 100% based on the financial aspect of it, then probably not.
 
2017-03-20 02:11:24 PM  

flondrix: Ron Vibbentrop: And secondly, if they choose to leave and join the EU why would England be upset? Many don't want them to leave, but if they leave why would we not want them to do what they want?

If Scotland were in the EU while England and Wales (neither the term "United Kingdom" nor "Britain" would apply anymore) were not, then a bunch of important banking would move from London to Edinburgh so they could continue to benefit from "being in the EU."


The EU have already said that Scotland will be out of the EU. There is no mechanism for them to be grandfathered in or anything like that. They will have to apply from scratch, and the process could take ten years, and they'll be obliged to accept the Euro, Schengen etc as all new EU members do.
 
2017-03-20 02:12:36 PM  

dwrash: mikaloyd: I take it there is no known scenario where Britain thrives without the EU?

It depends on your definition of thrive.  If your definition is 100% based on the financial aspect of it, then probably not.


If Ms. May walks away like she's threatening (to the cheers of Brexiteers) she knows there's going to be a lot of pissed off people voting against her party as the EU trade moves to more profitable countries.

Tara (they own Jaguar-Land-Rover) doesn't give a shiat about the Covington address, they bought the badge. That badge doesn't mean the cars have to be built in little england. They'll build them where it makes financial sense.
 
2017-03-20 02:12:49 PM  

Marcus Aurelius: HotWingConspiracy: Ron Vibbentrop: Making it clear you are prepared to walk is the best way to get a good deal.

Not when the other party knows walking away is worse for you.

The EU also has to make leaving extremely unattractive for everyone else.  That means they'll take a hit now to prevent any defections later.


The final deal is decided not by "The EU" but by the leaders of the 27 nations. Why would they screw the UK as a threat to themselves?
 
2017-03-20 02:13:19 PM  

orbister: Ron Vibbentrop: For one, Scotland cannot "stay in the EU". They will be leaving either way. The EU have said they will have to apply from scratch.

The EU has not said that. The EU has said that, frankly, it doesn't know what happens if a member state splits up. The only outright hostility comes from Spain, which is firing a shot across the bows of Catalonia.

A couple of years ago there was a theory that if the UK split, only one bit could stay in the EU. Suits us fine in Scotland. Suits them fine in England. What's not to like?


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/13/independent-scotland​-​would-have-to-apply-to-join-eu-commission-says

?
 
2017-03-20 02:15:38 PM  
I was on high street going to the shops when I heard this great news!  Me mates and I agree that it's just cracking.  Things are already changing.  In Cornwall they've gone straight to work on meat pies for the boys to take down into the tin mines.  Rover has restarted production of the Robin insuring we'll soon be three-wheeling about the motorways.  Lucas Electrics have opened a new smoke factory and are happily bottling it into their circuits.  Last night we all played "Throw the Mushy Peas at the Polack" and it was ever so much fun.  Britain for the Britons!
 
2017-03-20 02:15:58 PM  

Ron Vibbentrop: The EU have already said that Scotland will be out of the EU. There is no mechanism for them to be grandfathered in or anything like that. They will have to apply from scratch, and the process could take ten years, and they'll be obliged to accept the Euro, Schengen etc as all new EU members do.


And then Spain will veto to not give precedence to their own internal groups. It will be interesting to see where the EU finds the £10 billion (7% of EU spend) that they will lose. I don't see ze Germans stepping up.
 
2017-03-20 02:16:17 PM  

inglixthemad: dwrash: mikaloyd: I take it there is no known scenario where Britain thrives without the EU?

It depends on your definition of thrive.  If your definition is 100% based on the financial aspect of it, then probably not.

If Ms. May walks away like she's threatening (to the cheers of Brexiteers) she knows there's going to be a lot of pissed off people voting against her party as the EU trade moves to more profitable countries.

Tara (they own Jaguar-Land-Rover) doesn't give a shiat about the Covington address, they bought the badge. That badge doesn't mean the cars have to be built in little england. They'll build them where it makes financial sense.


They could still build them in England.. it all depends on what Parliament does.
 
2017-03-20 02:18:10 PM  

Ron Vibbentrop: Marcus Aurelius: HotWingConspiracy: Ron Vibbentrop: Making it clear you are prepared to walk is the best way to get a good deal.

Not when the other party knows walking away is worse for you.

The EU also has to make leaving extremely unattractive for everyone else.  That means they'll take a hit now to prevent any defections later.

The final deal is decided not by "The EU" but by the leaders of the 27 nations.


Oh that changes everything. Thankfully they aren't all members of an economic bloc that benefit by working together.
 
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