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(Marketwatch)   Dow 30,000 during Trump's first term? Don't bet against it   ( marketwatch.com) divider line
    More: Spiffy, Dow Jones Industrial Average, ZYX Change Method, Arora Report, Stock market index, Nigam Arora, Dow Jones & Company, Technical analysis, fastest growing companies  
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695 clicks; posted to Business » on 17 Feb 2017 at 12:10 PM (21 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



42 Comments     (+0 »)
 
View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest
 
2017-02-17 11:36:40 AM  
30,000 in the next 5 months?

Doubt it.
 
2017-02-17 11:39:59 AM  
Its gonna be a hella hard fall
 
2017-02-17 11:52:31 AM  

cman: Its gonna be a hella hard fall


I'm not so sure.  Maybe there's a bubble or two out there but if there's one thing drumpf is it's pliable and the business interests have already surrounded him.  It's not difficult for them.  "Hey there sir, FABULOUS tie you have on today.  MAGA!  So this bill we helped write, the best bill you've ever seen, a brilliant and dynamic man such as yourself knows how bigly this is going to MAGA so we hope to get your outstanding signature on it!" and bob's your uncle.  The corporate world could do worse.
 
2017-02-17 11:57:23 AM  
LOL no.
 
2017-02-17 12:01:11 PM  

nekom: I'm not so sure


Perhaps you are right. Perhaps this is simply the market reacting to inflation.

The Dow being this high, it kinda scares me a bit.

The economy isnt as strong as everyone makes it out to be
 
2017-02-17 12:01:49 PM  
Jeez, and I remember in 2009 it was about 6500. That means under Obama it went up 13,500, roughly, and we're saying Trump can increase it by 10,000? Okay. Sure, I have no qualms about that, but if we're gonna say Trumps great for that, shouldn't be offer credit where it's due? Or are we going to say that Trump inherited a mess?
 
2017-02-17 12:03:20 PM  
I would bet $1000 against it, actually.

(if I had $1000)
 
2017-02-17 12:05:11 PM  
Speculators gonna speculate.
 
2017-02-17 12:23:16 PM  
Paper tiger if foreign money keeps jumping ship and trade deals all get nullified.  But at least the circle jerk of money blowing each other can continue at the top.
 
2017-02-17 12:33:21 PM  
After Dodd Frank is repealed we'll see the Dow around 10,000.

Call it a buying opportunity.
 
2017-02-17 12:33:22 PM  
We all know how this works, the closest Democrat is responsible for everything good while the nearest Republican is responsible for everything bad.

Dow soars: Obama recovery
Dow crashes: Trump recession
 
2017-02-17 12:37:48 PM  

Wonktnod: We all know how this works, the closest Democrat is responsible for everything good while the nearest Republican is responsible for everything bad.

Dow soars: Obama recovery
Dow crashes: Trump recession


If you are saying that partisans are partisan.  Well then call me captain obvious.
 
2017-02-17 12:42:31 PM  
I would not bet on it.  I dont think we are near anywhere close to having stocks properly valued.  Way tooo high.  And then to add on top of that a 50% increase in 4 years?  No.  8..... maybe but I would put more money on a recession in the near near term.  Next two years or so... but then again I have been waiting for a recession the past year and a half.... what do I know.
 
2017-02-17 12:51:08 PM  
from 1999

img.fark.net
 
2017-02-17 12:57:42 PM  
That's real smart. I remember all the talk about Dow 20,000 .... in 2007.
 
2017-02-17 01:11:43 PM  

Demetrius: 30,000 in the next 5 months?

Doubt it.


No kidding.  The Dow could well hit 30,000 in the next 4 years (or crash and burn, but I've got a plan for when that happens).  Trump finishing the next 4 years?  He's already got a level of scandal going that most presidents only dream about for their second term.
 
2017-02-17 01:24:11 PM  
Yeah, I'm gonna go ahead and take the under on that bet.  With Trump poised to start trade wars with 2 of our top trading partners (China, Mexico) and instigate conflict with a nuclear power (Best Korea) antagonistic toward another one of our top trading partners (Japan), I'm not seeing the Dow rise another 50% any time soon.
 
2017-02-17 01:29:25 PM  
cman:
Perhaps you are right. Perhaps this is simply the market reacting to inflation.

The Dow being this high, it kinda scares me a bit.

The economy isnt as strong as everyone makes it out to be


The DOW isn't the only measure of the economy.  A high DOW doesn't necessarily mean it's good times for the working class, it means it's good times for corporations.
 
2017-02-17 01:30:39 PM  

cman: Its gonna be a hella hard fall


The key thing is that right now there's literally no other place to stick your money and make a positive (bubble-fueled) return.  Which is why the stock market bubble.  Everyone's shoving money and it's showing up as a very localized inflation.

The same thing's happening in China.  Except they don't trust markets, so they go buy real things.  Like houses in ghost cities at the average annual income per square meter.
 
2017-02-17 01:32:43 PM  

cman: The economy isnt as strong as everyone makes it out to be


Thanks Obama
 
2017-02-17 01:44:26 PM  
As a person who is getting cash into a brokerage account to be ready to buyr when the bubble pops, I'm highly suspicious of this claim.
 
2017-02-17 01:48:31 PM  

cman: The economy isnt as strong as everyone makes it out to be


The economy is exactly as strong as everyone makes it out to be.

The high end is doing amazing, public choice is restricting supply and subsidizing demand, and meanwhile, on the low end, they've had the first real pay raise since the '70's even if their rent/income ratio IS up by a third since 1991 and a fifth since 2008, their housing values dropped 30%, and they can't get a mortgage to try to use the second thing to fix the first.

Which of course means the Fed is about to murder us all in our sleep by farking up in the exact same way they farked up in '05 - '07, but that's par for the course.
 
2017-02-17 01:55:20 PM  
According to the Arora Report's analysis of Trump's proposals, tax cuts could add about $13 to S&P 500 earnings.

... snip...

Nigam Arora is an engineer, nuclear physicist, author, and entrepreneur and the founder of two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies. He is also the developer of the ZYX Change Method to profit from change by investing. The premise is that most money is made by predicting change before the crowd. Arora is the chief investment officer at The Arora Report and the editor of four newsletters that track the ZYX Change Method. Nigam can be reached at N­i­g­a­m[nospam-﹫-backwards]tro­peR­a­r­orAe­h­T*co­m

According to the Rapmaster2000 report, this quarter will see a 40% increase in shiat pulled from asses.

Rapmaster2000 is a playboy, cowboy, and astronaut.  He is also the developer of the ASS Method to profit by scouring the carpet for loose change at strip clubs.  Rapmaster2000 is the Chief Investment Officer at his mom's basement and the editor of four newsletters that track ASS Method returns at Classy Chassis, the Clermont Lounge, Jumbo's Clown Room, and Waffle House.  Rapmaster2000 can be reached at the bar between 2 and 6 pm.
 
2017-02-17 01:56:26 PM  

meyerkev: The same thing's happening in China.  Except they don't trust markets, so they go buy real things.  Like houses in ghost cities at the average annual income per square meter.


http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-stocks-idUSKCN0PI04Q20150708

FTA: " Unlike other major stock markets, which are dominated by professional money managers, retail investors account for around 85 percent of China trade, which exacerbates volatility. "

Combine uninformed (and poorly educated) citizen investors and a government managing the market (restricting IPOs, limiting foreign investment, restrictions on types of trades, "formerly" currency manipulation) and you get a very volatile market.

I don't think there's enough institutional knowledge among the investor class in China for the majority of them to survive any sort of real collapse, even if there are suitable options.
 
2017-02-17 02:06:50 PM  
The Fed doctrine has been to build a wall around 2% inflation. Getting to 30,000 without quite a bit more inflation will be ... interesting.
 
2017-02-17 02:09:07 PM  
I'm sorry, but I've heard "sell in May and walk away" way too often to think that this year will be any different. Stocks are riding Q4, Q1, and Q2 bumps, they'll be down come the summer like usual. Because of the likely intense media scrutiny, it may be more dramatic than usual.
 
2017-02-17 02:12:19 PM  
whenever you start seeing these types of insane predictions, it's time to sell. Basically ALL possible good news from Trumpian economics is already priced in. None of the possible bad news (never mind exogenous events) have been priced in. This is a bubble, but as always it could last a while.
 
2017-02-17 02:14:31 PM  
img.fark.net
 
2017-02-17 02:14:48 PM  

broomballwilson: whenever you start seeing these types of insane predictions, it's time to sell. Basically ALL possible good news from Trumpian economics is already priced in. None of the possible bad news (never mind exogenous events) have been priced in. This is a bubble, but as always it could last a while.


Current guess is that Le Pen has a 1 in 3 chance of winning.  (Seriously, the polls have her 1 point behind where Trump was 80 days out)

If this is what markets look like at a 1 in 3 chance of winning, I don't see it.
 
2017-02-17 02:18:33 PM  

Wonktnod: We all know how this works, the closest Democrat is responsible for everything good while the nearest Republican is responsible for everything bad.

Dow soars: Obama recovery
Dow crashes: Trump recession


Look at the Dow during Obama's term (continuing nose dive to start and steady recovery after 2010) and explain to me how that recovery was actually due to Republican policy.

You'll notice the beginning of this presidency looks a lot like the opposite of the above.
 
2017-02-17 02:24:11 PM  

meyerkev: broomballwilson: whenever you start seeing these types of insane predictions, it's time to sell. Basically ALL possible good news from Trumpian economics is already priced in. None of the possible bad news (never mind exogenous events) have been priced in. This is a bubble, but as always it could last a while.

Current guess is that Le Pen has a 1 in 3 chance of winning.  (Seriously, the polls have her 1 point behind where Trump was 80 days out)

If this is what markets look like at a 1 in 3 chance of winning, I don't see it.


Remember, lunch has a 1 in 3 chance of what you're eating right now. Our basic understanding of statistics needs revamped after this past election
 
2017-02-17 02:31:37 PM  
With runaway inflation maybe
 
2017-02-17 02:43:48 PM  
crash in 3...2...1...
 
2017-02-17 02:52:02 PM  

NewWorldDan: Demetrius: 30,000 in the next 5 months?

Doubt it.

No kidding.  The Dow could well hit 30,000 in the next 4 years (or crash and burn, but I've got a plan for when that happens).  Trump finishing the next 4 years?  He's already got a level of scandal going that most presidents only dream about for their second term.


Yes, but, no one who can do anything about it cares.
 
2017-02-17 02:59:40 PM  

Wonktnod: We all know how this works, the closest Democrat is responsible for everything good while the nearest Republican is responsible for everything bad.

Dow soars: Obama recovery
Dow crashes: Trump recession


The dow began to soar in march of 2009, a month after Obama took office and just after the recovery act was passed. so, yes, that is based in reality. since then, the dow has gone from 6,000 to 20,000. that's a pretty farking massive gain.

as for crashing, well, Trump hasn't farked it up yet, but he will if he's allowed to do any of his insane protectionist shiat.
 
2017-02-17 03:13:47 PM  
I already bet against it and sold 60% of my portfolio about two weeks ago.

I predict we'll see 12,000 before the end of the year, probably sooner.
 
2017-02-17 03:20:02 PM  

Rapmaster2000: Nigam Arora is an engineer, nuclear physicist, author, and entrepreneur and the founder of two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies. He is also the developer of the ZYX Change Method to profit from change by investing. The premise is that most money is made by predicting change before the crowd. Arora is the chief investment officer at The Arora Report and the editor of four newsletters that track the ZYX Change Method. Nigam can be reached at Nigam[nospam-﹫-backwards]tropeRarorAehT*com


He figured that all out himself, did he?
 
2017-02-17 03:23:55 PM  

nekom: cman: Its gonna be a hella hard fall

I'm not so sure.  Maybe there's a bubble or two out there but if there's one thing drumpf is it's pliable and the business interests have already surrounded him.  It's not difficult for them.  "Hey there sir, FABULOUS tie you have on today.  MAGA!  So this bill we helped write, the best bill you've ever seen, a brilliant and dynamic man such as yourself knows how bigly this is going to MAGA so we hope to get your outstanding signature on it!" and bob's your uncle.  The corporate world could do worse.


My reading is that it's a time of prosperity for large corporations. We'll see mergers with regulatory waive-through. Protections that restrict the biggest companies will be able to successfully lobby themselves out of those limits. Small businesses are going to feel some pain, though, except where they can ride along on the coattails of the large companies or en masse through business associations. For the majority of Americans, it won't much matter either way; and, as others have noted, the DOW is simply one way to measure economic health and it doesn't tell a complete story.
 
2017-02-17 03:37:06 PM  
Well I, for one, will be thrilled to learn that billionaires in the financial sector will have accumulated unprecedented wealth under Trump. It'll be such a comfort to think of while the rest of us fight for the last few remaining cans of expired dog food to eat.
 
2017-02-17 03:50:04 PM  
Normally I would buy/sell options to hedge my position, but I've sold everything and actually borrowed money so I can invest in popcorn futures.
 
2017-02-17 04:23:58 PM  
It's certainly a possibility.  He gets to name a new Fed Chair in a year, and will probably be looking to inflate us out of the pile of debt he's working on running up.
 
2017-02-17 04:41:16 PM  

nekom: cman: Its gonna be a hella hard fall

I'm not so sure.  Maybe there's a bubble or two out there but if there's one thing drumpf is it's pliable and the business interests have already surrounded him.  It's not difficult for them.  "Hey there sir, FABULOUS tie you have on today.  MAGA!  So this bill we helped write, the best bill you've ever seen, a brilliant and dynamic man such as yourself knows how bigly this is going to MAGA so we hope to get your outstanding signature on it!" and bob's your uncle.  The corporate world could do worse.


Now we know Lloyd Blankfein'a Faron Handle

/could be Jamie Dimon
 
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