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(The Register)   All of your DVDs are about to be obsolete   ( divider line
    More: Scary  
•       •       •

82840 clicks; posted to Main » on 27 Feb 2004 at 10:57 AM (13 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»

242 Comments     (+0 »)

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2004-02-27 12:05:09 PM  
Why not use even smaller wavelengths for the lasers? Gamma rays, anyone?
2004-02-27 12:05:21 PM  

Just so you remember the experience:

'but it's too late ba' whirrr.... click...thunk....
'by now it's too late'
2004-02-27 12:05:26 PM  
Yeah, and SACD is really taking off too. Not. There comes a point where the current format really is "good enough" for 95% or more of the population. At which point the potential market share of the Next Big Thing becomes a niche market. Anyone remember laserdisc? How many of you still confuse it with RCA's needlevision? (those are the ones in hard plastic cases)

VHS was not "good enough". CD Audio is. And now that consumers are happy with ripping CDs for their portable MP3 players, an unrippable format is going to have a hard time in the market. DVD is less "good enough" than CD Audio, but still pretty decent.

Tetrabytes? Wouldn't that be the same as a long int?
2004-02-27 12:06:18 PM  
Use Its so much cheaper than Blockbuster.
2004-02-27 12:06:19 PM  
as I understand it, VHS won out becuase it was supported by the pron industry. ... and we know who BIG they were in adaptation of VCRs.
2004-02-27 12:06:52 PM  
Uhhh, no thanks. Anything that compresses even more using the same storage mechanism is not going to work well. Bluray is the way to go to advance the technology. But of course the studios don't want it. It moves people closer and closer to a perfect copy of a movie.
2004-02-27 12:08:01 PM  
Mmmmm, HD-DVD.
2004-02-27 12:08:29 PM  
It wasn't so much supported by the pron industry, but didn't Sony sue the pron manu's while panasonic just shrugged and said "buy the real thing guys".

2004-02-27 12:10:25 PM  
Its all relative...the more we need, the more space we create to store it. ie your bedroom closet, then your dorm storage, then the public storage, then the townhouse closets and basment, then the new 4 BDR house with the 3 car garage (one bay if filled with boxes).

So with 8" floppy (ahem) to 5.25" to 3.5" to SD/CF cards...
From 800K to 1.44 to 2.88 to 120M to 650MCDR to 9.4 DVD-RAM... all relative. The file size increase, the storage adapts. Its Speddy's law- "he who has the most, needs the most to store it"
2004-02-27 12:10:35 PM  
Bonzy no. Unless you want it at regular DVD Resolution, it won't fit on one disk. You will most likely be able to get each EE on a single disk (depends how long Jackson makes the 3rd EE)

If they made them hold 12 hrs, they would have to make the format a lower bitrate and thus lower quality. 4 hrs pushes it in my opinion, but using 50gb Blu-ray, the format I think is superior and Sony is pushing, that might be ok. No sense wasting all that space on crappy quality (not cartridge based for manufactured disks anymore, stupid incorrect article)

Just to give an example. Current DVD 2hrs on 9.4 GB is considered the max for good quality. so 12 hrs would be 56.4 GB.

Not even Blu-Ray can hold that, but in all the trilogy would be a bit shorter, so yes, at crappy DVD resolution, you could put it all on one Blu Ray HDDVD. It would look like crap in comparison to what they will produce on HDDVD. ALSO, you most likely will take a break to, say, eat or something inbetween movies. so switching discs per movie should be sufficient.
2004-02-27 12:10:41 PM  
Beat: I'd make a big technical deal, but I don't expect most of you farkers to care about this just yet. All you need to care about is that the picture is amazing.

The picture won't be so amazing until you drop five grand on a TV set that can show that amazing picture.
2004-02-27 12:17:11 PM  
I believe ForceMcCocken was merely poking fun at your tetra-byte typo ... perhaps a tetrabyte is 4 bytes (hard to say, as none of us had heard of a tetrabyte). That's how he came up with this calculation. And 100 tetrabytes isn't all that much.

One-hundred terabytes certainly is impressive, as you adequately pointed out later sans typos.
2004-02-27 12:18:58 PM  
2004-02-27 12:19:46 PM  
Two words: BetaMax

[image from too old to be available]
2004-02-27 12:19:57 PM  
From the article:

The Toshiba-NEC read-only system won the November vote 8:6, thanks to new voting rules that ignore abstentions. It's backward-compatibility with the current DVD spec appears to have clinched the win.

"It is backward-compatibility with the current DVD spec appears to have clinched the win"?
2004-02-27 12:21:19 PM  
sthayashiatwo things. One, they will have HDTV by then. Its not just the businesses pushing it. The Government is pushing to do it, because you see, the FCC is selling old NTSC waves. They gave away HDTV waves, which is a more precise and narrower band, so that they could sell the large NTSC spectrum off, thus making alot of money. And the military is one of the main buyers. There is a clause that says, currently by 2007 but it may get pushed, that FCC is requiring all NTSC broadcasts to STOP COMPLETELY. So you have corporations standing to gain alot of money, Government standing to gain alot of money both from lobbyists and FCC selling the waves, and Military applications. In that context, you really think you will stop it? Most of the rest of the world is already converting too.

Point two. Target date for HDDVD introduction is the peak of DVD , 2005-2007. Seeing as DVD was released in 1997, think about it. It took about 5 years minimum for DVD to go mainstream, and thats really being conservative, it really wasn't till 2003. So, introduced in 2005 earliest, 5 years would put us at 2010, and industry sources say more like 2012 HDDVD will be mainstream. Trust me, will all they are doing, you will have an HDTV set by that time, and their marketing will cause people to want one. Look, when your tv stops working, and you can either upgrade to a cable box which down converts a widescreen high res image to full screen crappy res, you'll consider that HD set. If you don't think you would, then its obvious your not the market they are after (I am a Videophile, but I absolutely respect people who dont care about this matter, many family and friends could care less. Most of them will be swayed when its hip, in the news, mainstream, marketed to them etc. but those who still aren't, that is fine. I have a sister who majored in Anthro and really could care less, only likes dvd because it allows her to buy digital copies that will last and have decent picture on her average TV, thats fine with her, so whatever.
2004-02-27 12:22:41 PM  
dang, I thought I was the last of the Betamax users in the western hemisphere.

Beta Rocks!!!

also, re: Beta is better but VHS is longer - why do new VHS recorders default to SP (2 hours on a 6 hour tape)? Because EP quality is deplorable! And DVD quality vs. quantity is still short of Beta IMHO

/my short rant - done now
2004-02-27 12:23:10 PM  
They're only doing this so they'll be able to fit all 8 endings of Return of the King onto one disc. Otherwise you'll need another disc for all the post-Ring-being-melted shiat.
2004-02-27 12:23:20 PM  
Attention K-mart shoppers! Blue light special in the electronics department.
/some one had to say it....or maybe not.
2004-02-27 12:23:35 PM  
DAMN Betamax vs VHS situation again. Here is hoping for a quickly defined industry standard.

The standard is that the standard shall be rendered obsolete by new developments every 5 years or so, in order to drive the market. Welcome your consumer-culture-driving overlords now.

On the other hand, hiking, jogging, spending time away from technology will always be rendered in "true definition," that is, your eyes, in combination with a light source, will show you exactly what you get.

Not as exciting as the extended version of Lord of the Rings, but not as expensive either.

/dvd-owning hypocrite
2004-02-27 12:27:06 PM  
perhaps a tetrabyte is 4 bytes (hard to say, as none of us had heard of a tetrabyte)

Actually, a tetrabyte WOULD be 4 bytes come to think of it. An absolutely pointless measurement, even on the Vic-20, or the old IBM punchcard machine my HighSchool used to have. You are correct that I had the shrivelled little thing that I use in place of a sense of humour turned off.

A friend of mine was telling me about yattobytes (or something) which is a truly mindboggling amount of storage (or he may have been pulling my leg, anyone know?). 5 ybs/sec...every pornographers dream I suppose.

2004-02-27 12:28:37 PM  
I submit a gazillion things and a post by someone whom obviously didn't RTFA gets greenlighted? Sheesh.
2004-02-27 12:29:29 PM  
i can be the only one who didnt think that was another language. but Fark i just bought my dvd plaer combo
2004-02-27 12:29:39 PM  
The toughest thing was letting go of those stupid DVD/CD cases, and embracing binder storage. I went from 100's of DVD's down to two nice leather binders. I feel so organized. ;)

As long as I can rip and burn, I'm happy.
2004-02-27 12:32:57 PM  
So, the target of this product is a ways off and is only just starting to see press because that is how you build interest. It's called Marketing. You won't see this anytime soon, just like most of us, including me, wont use HDTV anytime soon. They will get here though. Think of today as 1996, and next year is 1997, the release of DVD. Now think how far ahead 2003 was then, the year DVD basically went mainstream. DVD still has alot of life left in it, but the industry is well aware that they wont have titles to restore forever (and many they wont restore because of lack of interest, sorry all about all your niche titles just push the studios with letters and such and hope) So they are simply planning their future, so that when it does hit, the industry is aware and is ready with many titles. Infact, most all dvds coming out today are made from the files the HDDVDs will be made from. The studios, when they restore a film now, are making 1080p archive copies of the films and then downconverting them for DVD. These copies will be used for the HD files. Thus, most of the release work is done on alot of HD titles already. Last time, when DVD came out, the industry was slow to adopt and this time they want to be ready and moving out the gate. On a side note, this is what it means when you see a DVD stated as "Made from a new HD transfer" It doesn't mean the disc is HD. Go look at the back of T2 Extreme Edition if you want. Although probably a bad example, because regular DVD disc 1 created using a HD Transfer down converted, and disc 2 contains a Windows Media 9 series actual HD 1080i copy, although this wont run on a DVD player, and you need a very fast computer to run it at all due to the heavy compression which doesn't help the picture.
2004-02-27 12:35:28 PM  
whatever. i still buy and play vinyl.
2004-02-27 12:37:36 PM  

2004-02-27 12:29:39 PM pinkpower

The toughest thing was letting go of those stupid DVD/CD cases, and embracing binder storage. I went from 100's of DVD's down to two nice leather binders. I feel so organized. ;)

As long as I can rip and burn, I'm happy.

I'm in the same boat. I bought a couple 100 ct. cases of those dual disc DVD cases, opened a few of them.. then looked at the two 100 disc spindles that took up almost zero room compared to the two huges boxes of all that plastic. Coupled with the task of print out all the inserts and labels.. forget it.
2004-02-27 12:38:26 PM  
autopsybeverage - it isn't hypocritic, its called balance. Hard to hike at night, or snowboard in the off seasons. I love my video and all, but I love not using technology too.

pinkpower- Two old floormates of mine, one has 500 cds and 200 dvds, other around 200 cds and 400 dvds and about 100 game and software disks. They use binders now, because it would be so insane to bring that stuff to their dorms. I don't have that problem, although if I move back on campus I might do that seeing as my DVD collection expanded to 100 over the last year, and my CDs and Games and Software going nuts too.
2004-02-27 12:41:54 PM  
I decided to finally look up yottabytes, and they do exist. This is what to look for in the future 500 yottabytes/second download time, and 1000 yottabytes on a disc :-D

1024 Gigabytes is 1 Terabyte
1024 Terabytes is 1 Petabytes (1,048,576 GB)
1024 Petabytes is 1 Exabyte (1,073,741,824 GB)
1024 Exabytes is 1 Zettabytes (1,099,511,627,776 GB)
1024 Zettabytes is 1 Yottabyte (1,125,899,906,842,624 GB)

My mind is boggling. Now I must go off to weekly wrap up meeting.

2004-02-27 12:43:16 PM  

You were close... The sequence goes: kilo, mega, giga, tera, peta, exa, zetta, then yotta. Yotta is 10 to the 24th power.
2004-02-27 12:43:26 PM  
Hoping the Re-Writable part isn't so they can actually enforce that "you can watch this for 48 hours, then no more" shiatty concept that the movie/entertainment industry was working on a while back...
2004-02-27 12:43:49 PM  
Obsolete? Floppies are still around, aren't they?

It's just a newer technology, like ZIP disks.

2004-02-27 12:43:54 PM  
...but you knew that already!!
2004-02-27 12:44:10 PM  
The word the submitter was looking for is obsolescent.

Passing into desuetude...
2004-02-27 12:47:19 PM  

Technically, no, it is not 10 to the 24th
It is 2 to the 80th

10^24= 1000000000000000000000000
2^80= 1208925819614629174706176
2004-02-27 12:50:07 PM  
New technology only replaces old technology when the average consumer buys it. Given the prices of HD TVs I dont see anyone but the hardest of the hardcore getting into these technologies for some years.

Oh and from the sounds of it, you people buy way too much shiat...
2004-02-27 12:51:21 PM  
20 gig.. mmm .. I can back up my Mp3 collection in 2 disks... not too bad.. :].
2004-02-27 12:51:57 PM  
Can someone 'splain me the masthead?

[image from too old to be available]

Are pissed-off looking seagulls a sign of journalistic integrity in jolly olde England?
2004-02-27 12:53:55 PM  
Whew, good thing i'm still buying laserdiscs
2004-02-27 12:54:17 PM  
Does this mean that I can now have the entire Strap-On Sally series on just one disc???

A friend of mine is one of the principal "actors" for a couple of those...
2004-02-27 01:01:13 PM  

Your friend isn't pulling your leg. As the numbers go up the prefixes are as follows:

tera = 10^12 or 2^40
peta = 10^15 or 2^50
exa = 10^18 or 2^60
zeta = 10^21 or 2^70
yotta = 10^24 or 2^80

That's as far up the scale as I've been able to find.

2004-02-27 01:02:43 PM  
"Biting The Hand That Feeds It", Moochia.
2004-02-27 01:06:36 PM  

High definition? Screw it; I watch DVDs on my Linux box most of the time anyway, not using a player and TV.

But what if your girlfriend wants to watch a movie with you? Are you gonna have her pull up a chair and sit watching your Linux box for 2 hours? Oh wait, Linux box... girlfriend... forget it, I just answered my own question

That's the funniest thing I've read all day.

2004-02-27 01:07:48 PM  
1 Yottabyte
=1024^8 bytes
=2^80 bytes
=2^50 gigabytes
=2^53 gigabits

=1,208,925,819,614,629,174,706,176 BYTES
=9,671,406,556,917,033,397,649,408 BITS
=1,125,899,906,842,624 GiGABYTES
=9,007,199,254,740,992 GiGABITS

Yes, a Yottabyte is more than 11.25 Trillion 100GB Hard Drives

(I had the above typed up anyways so I posted it.)
2004-02-27 01:09:30 PM  
Forgot =2^83 bits, and apparently I like to type all caps Gigabyte with a lowercase 'i'.
2004-02-27 01:09:34 PM  
That's a yotta bytes!
2004-02-27 01:09:37 PM  
They might as well be obsolete. Pretty soon, the movie companies are gonna come out with new super re-mastered film versions with even better picture quality and sound. And boom, we have to start our movie collection all over again.
2004-02-27 01:09:45 PM  
Your Tivo wants a nuclear powered blue laser.
2004-02-27 01:10:38 PM  
As troy.mcclure said, the Beta/VHS thing is all about length. IIRC, Beta started out as a 1-hour format. Sony saw no reason to increase it, even though VHS was already on the market. Eventually they did introduce longer record times, but the war was lost by then.

Beta is superior technology. The Pro version continued to be the standard for the professional market up until digital got cheap.
2004-02-27 01:10:58 PM  

The standard is that the standard shall be rendered obsolete by new developments every 5 years or so, in order to drive the market. Welcome your consumer-culture-driving overlords now.

Don't worry. We're less then ten years away from the Singularity. Then everything will be obsolete, including humans.

/scurries back into bomb shelter
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