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(Major League Baseball)   Congratulations on the first MLB team to be mathematically eliminated from winning their division. The team from the great state of Texas... Hold on Astros, not so fast   (mlb.mlb.com) divider line 55
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1810 clicks; posted to Sports » on 31 Aug 2014 at 7:23 PM (21 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2014-08-31 06:49:07 PM  
I'm surprised it isn't Philly.
 
2014-08-31 07:32:27 PM  
What the hell happened to the Rangers?
 
2014-08-31 07:40:39 PM  

Mrtraveler01: What the hell happened to the Rangers?




Gee I wonder.
 
2014-08-31 07:41:58 PM  
The Lastros can't even do that right.

/Leftover NL Central trash talk.

//Di, I hope the Cowboys wait until later in the season to disappoint you.
 
2014-08-31 07:53:26 PM  
So....... does this mean the Chicago Cubs still have a chance?
 
2014-08-31 07:58:13 PM  
Damn Rangers, it's not even September.
 
2014-08-31 07:58:15 PM  

Mrtraveler01: What the hell happened to the Rangers?


You name it and it happened to the Rangers... and then went on the DL,
 
2014-08-31 07:59:41 PM  

Rann Xerox: So....... does this mean the Chicago Cubs still have a chance?


No. The Cubs are eliminated when the pitchers and catchers report.
 
2014-08-31 08:03:52 PM  
Why kick a team while they're down, Subby?

Texas tied the "record" for most players ever used by a team in a season, and this was last week or so.

There was no starting rotation of any consistency, and they routinely gave up double digit runs while not/barely scoring.

It was so bad, that the A's fan I know who would insult the Rangers any chance he got, apologized back in MAY for the shiat hand Texas was dealt.

So Go fark Yourself, Subby.
 
2014-08-31 08:04:38 PM  

Snapper Carr: Mrtraveler01: What the hell happened to the Rangers?



Gee I wonder.


Gotta love bandwagon fans. Hopefully enough of them hop off next year so Opening Day tickets are a little easier to come by.
 
2014-08-31 08:05:14 PM  
My Brewers are making an effort to be eliminated after holding 1st place since April 5th

/I know, noone cares
//just ask ESPN
 
2014-08-31 08:06:58 PM  
Wow, I looked at the Padres roster and watched a few games this season, and they're only 7 games below .500?

Bud Black should be Manager of the Year.
 
2014-08-31 08:11:27 PM  

Snapper Carr: Mrtraveler01: What the hell happened to the Rangers?

Gee I wonder.


It's a major point in the decline, but the list of specifics is incredibly long and ridiculous.
 
2014-08-31 08:15:24 PM  
Not the Rockies? Color me shocked...
 
2014-08-31 08:15:30 PM  
I'm more confused by the fact that the Orioles have a 9 game lead in the division going into September and the Sox are in the cellar.
 
2014-08-31 08:26:57 PM  

NeoCortex42: I'm more confused by the fact that the Orioles have a 9 game lead in the division going into September and the Sox are in the cellar.


I'm most confused by the Royals still being in first place going into September.
 
2014-08-31 08:37:35 PM  
What the hell baseball is still happening?

I don't know how y'all have the attention spans to last through this long of a season.
 
2014-08-31 08:51:59 PM  

Serious Black: NeoCortex42: I'm more confused by the fact that the Orioles have a 9 game lead in the division going into September and the Sox are in the cellar.

I'm most confused by the Royals still being in first place going into September.


At least the Orioles have been playing pretty well for a few seasons now.  That Royals thing definitely has me scratching my head, especially being in the same division as the Tigers.
 
2014-08-31 08:54:51 PM  

Serious Black: NeoCortex42: I'm more confused by the fact that the Orioles have a 9 game lead in the division going into September and the Sox are in the cellar.

I'm most confused by the Royals still being in first place going into September.


Also confusing: The Angels are the best team in baseball (by 4 games) and the only two Angels pitchers anyone has heard of (Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson) have been mediocre.
 
2014-08-31 08:55:58 PM  

06Wahoo: Serious Black: NeoCortex42: I'm more confused by the fact that the Orioles have a 9 game lead in the division going into September and the Sox are in the cellar.

I'm most confused by the Royals still being in first place going into September.

At least the Orioles have been playing pretty well for a few seasons now.  That Royals thing definitely has me scratching my head, especially being in the same division as the Tigers.


Eh, even when the Tigers were leading the division, they were a dumpster fire that just managed to not spread.
 
2014-08-31 08:56:36 PM  
even the suck is bigger in texas

your move cowboys...
 
2014-08-31 09:12:52 PM  
This season has been the strangest most upside down MLB ever.

/just want my Yankees to win
//Re2pect and all that
 
2014-08-31 09:28:40 PM  
I think the author means  Frisco Roughriders...
 
2014-08-31 09:53:47 PM  

gonzoduke: My Brewers are making an effort to be eliminated after holding 1st place since April 5th

/I know, noone cares
//just ask ESPN


5...5 game...5 game losing streak..and me with only 2 wrists to slit. Please turn it around Crew. I beg of you all.
 
2014-08-31 10:53:30 PM  

timswar: What the hell baseball is still happening?

I don't know how y'all have the attention spans to last through this long of a season.


You're so edgy and cool.
 
2014-08-31 10:55:38 PM  
How's Arencibia working out for you guys?
 
2014-08-31 11:57:50 PM  
Season was over almost before it started for the Rangers - too many injuries, and a lot of them happened really early.

But in the long run, I think ownership choosing Jon Daniels over Nolan Ryan is going to be what sends them tumbling back down into more traditional Rangers territory. It's going to be a long time before the Rangers are again a strike away from winning the World Series.
 
2014-09-01 12:54:03 AM  

ATRDCI: 06Wahoo: Serious Black: NeoCortex42: I'm more confused by the fact that the Orioles have a 9 game lead in the division going into September and the Sox are in the cellar.

I'm most confused by the Royals still being in first place going into September.

At least the Orioles have been playing pretty well for a few seasons now.  That Royals thing definitely has me scratching my head, especially being in the same division as the Tigers.

Eh, even when the Tigers were leading the division, they were a dumpster fire that just managed to not spread.


MLB tonight earlier this week actually took a look at the Tigers of the past few years and came to the conclusion that they really aren't that great.
Recent Tigers success has been a combination of a handful of players having insane years (Verlander, Scherzer, Miggy) and the rest of the division being just awful.
 
2014-09-01 01:10:15 AM  

Tellurium: Rann Xerox: So....... does this mean the Chicago Cubs still have a chance?

No. The Cubs are eliminated when the pitchers and catchers report.


I wish someone would tell Ronnie "Woo Woo" Wickers that.  Maybe THAT would shut that screaming mother*cker up.
 
2014-09-01 01:17:47 AM  
So Murphy's law kicked the shiat out of the Rangers?
 
2014-09-01 01:44:32 AM  

Mrtraveler01: What the hell happened to the Rangers?


David Freese
 
2014-09-01 01:49:31 AM  

roc6783: gonzoduke: My Brewers are making an effort to be eliminated after holding 1st place since April 5th

/I know, noone cares
//just ask ESPN

5...5 game...5 game losing streak..and me with only 2 wrists to slit. Please turn it around Crew. I beg of you all.


The Cards are coming.

All over your face.
 
2014-09-01 02:48:30 AM  
I remember getting a green gloating about the Jays a while back.

Good times.

/I was wrong, sorry.
 
2014-09-01 06:03:26 AM  
I don't like baseball but from what I've heard the Rangers had half their team on IR. Glad I never jumped on that bandwagon though, seems brutal. It's bad enough rooting for the Cowboys.

/Still got the Mavs and Stars though, the football season will be rough though
 
2014-09-01 07:16:31 AM  
Has anybody managed to geek out whether certain teams are eliminated, even if it looks like they're mathematically alive, because even if the first place team lost all their games and the last place team won all their games, the teams in between would necessarily win enough games to eliminate the last place team, if they had the first-place team on their schedules?

At some point it becomes mathematically impossible for the Phillies, Mets, Padres, Reds, Marlins, Pirates, Braves, Cardinals, Brewers and Giants to all lose enough games for the Cubs to grab the five spot, right? And so the Cubs' tragic number has got to be something less than 14 (as of Labor Day), yes?
 
2014-09-01 07:40:47 AM  
Texas? Then the Red Sox were doing it wrong...need to trade more pitchers!
 
2014-09-01 10:05:38 AM  

Gulper Eel: Has anybody managed to geek out whether certain teams are eliminated, even if it looks like they're mathematically alive, because even if the first place team lost all their games and the last place team won all their games, the teams in between would necessarily win enough games to eliminate the last place team, if they had the first-place team on their schedules?

At some point it becomes mathematically impossible for the Phillies, Mets, Padres, Reds, Marlins, Pirates, Braves, Cardinals, Brewers and Giants to all lose enough games for the Cubs to grab the five spot, right? And so the Cubs' tragic number has got to be something less than 14 (as of Labor Day), yes?


Yes on both accounts: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/probability.jsp
 
2014-09-01 10:08:12 AM  

dave2198: roc6783: gonzoduke: My Brewers are making an effort to be eliminated after holding 1st place since April 5th

/I know, noone cares
//just ask ESPN

5...5 game...5 game losing streak..and me with only 2 wrists to slit. Please turn it around Crew. I beg of you all.

The Cards are coming.

All over your face.


That's...umm...colorful. Kinda like the line of men leaving your mother's bedroom. Go blow a Billy goat you bird farker.

//I don't really mean any of that, I am just upset. I apologize.
 
2014-09-01 10:23:28 AM  
Rangers blew up with injuries and attempting to get a big name roster. Expecting a three year slump of rebuilding, kind of like 2006-2009.

Im also expecting the Astros to win big through the end of the decade. Theyve taken Sabermetrics and removed any and all emotion.
 
2014-09-01 10:32:51 AM  

roc6783: dave2198: roc6783: gonzoduke: My Brewers are making an effort to be eliminated after holding 1st place since April 5th

/I know, noone cares
//just ask ESPN

5...5 game...5 game losing streak..and me with only 2 wrists to slit. Please turn it around Crew. I beg of you all.

The Cards are coming.

All over your face.

That's...umm...colorful. Kinda like the line of men leaving your mother's bedroom. Go blow a Billy goat you bird farker.

//I don't really mean any of that, I am just upset. I apologize.


I was going to stop after the first line.

But then I remembered this is Fark, and we all have a quota of colorful jokes to meet every month.

/end of the month, sorry
 
2014-09-01 10:34:05 AM  

Outlaw2097: Rangers blew up with injuries and attempting to get a big name roster. Expecting a three year slump of rebuilding, kind of like 2006-2009.

Im also expecting the Astros to win big through the end of the decade. Theyve taken Sabermetrics and removed any and all emotion.


The Rangers weren't the same after the World Series loss. You could see it on their faces.

I wonder how many of their players are truly too injured to play vs. "I'd rather be on IR than play right now"
 
2014-09-01 11:15:25 AM  
dave2198:

The Rangers weren't the same after the World Series loss. You could see it on their faces.

Id argue that after going 0-2 on a ring, they began having doubts and/or realized they wanted a bigger payday to go for it a 3rd time.

I wonder how many of their players are truly too injured to play vs. "I'd rather be on IR than play right now"

Totally agree.  If JD is planning on deconstructing the team (and if he is a smart owner, he is) then I would not want to push the big dollar guys too hard for the end of the season, especially since the the trade deadline has passed for anyone to use a player on their playoff roster.  Let them put up some halfway decent stats to finish the season, maybe spoil the Angels in a playoff run, and the market will do its thing during the winter meetings.
 
2014-09-01 11:19:21 AM  
Didn't the Rangers blow a ton of money this year on high profile players?
 
2014-09-01 11:37:57 AM  

dave2198: roc6783: dave2198: roc6783: gonzoduke: My Brewers are making an effort to be eliminated after holding 1st place since April 5th

/I know, noone cares
//just ask ESPN

5...5 game...5 game losing streak..and me with only 2 wrists to slit. Please turn it around Crew. I beg of you all.

The Cards are coming.

All over your face.

That's...umm...colorful. Kinda like the line of men leaving your mother's bedroom. Go blow a Billy goat you bird farker.

//I don't really mean any of that, I am just upset. I apologize.

I was going to stop after the first line.

But then I remembered this is Fark, and we all have a quota of colorful jokes to meet every month.

/end of the month, sorry


It does seem like every Cards fan is at that time of the month.

/I treat Fark like herpes, tis better to give than receive, but if it's funny, the burn is not quite as bad.
 
2014-09-01 02:24:51 PM  

Peter von Nostrand: timswar: What the hell baseball is still happening?

I don't know how y'all have the attention spans to last through this long of a season.

You're so edgy and cool.


No, I have ADD and honestly can't imagine how baseball fans make it through a 162 game season + playoffs.
 
2014-09-01 03:01:27 PM  

Mrtraveler01: What the hell happened to the Rangers?


I think the knockout punch was losing Prince Fielder for the season, along with Ian Kinzler to get him. Despite that the STL rally squirrel has a bigger impact in postseason play, Prince Fielder delivers a lot of RBI during the regular season. Nelson Cruz also turned out to be a big loss, but I would've dumped him too.

Despite how adamant I am on getting rid of guys who are proven cheaters, they always seem to be outstanding when they return.
 
2014-09-01 03:05:32 PM  

Serious Black: NeoCortex42: I'm more confused by the fact that the Orioles have a 9 game lead in the division going into September and the Sox are in the cellar.

I'm most confused by the Royals still being in first place going into September.


As a White Sox fan, I'm really pulling for the Royalty. I think they would be the most fun team to see in the postseason. Lord knows we don't need another postseason of watching the Tigers inevitably poop the bed.
 
2014-09-01 04:23:05 PM  

roc6783: Yes on both accounts: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/probability.jsp


I don't think that covers it - I've seen teams with a "0.0" chance of making the playoffs in early August go on five-game winning streaks and then the number pops back up to a small but non-zero figure for a little bit. If you look at the chart for the NL Central you can see this happened with the Cubs a couple times in early July.

When does the "0.0" really mean zero?
 
2014-09-01 04:46:14 PM  

Gulper Eel: roc6783: Yes on both accounts: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/probability.jsp

I don't think that covers it - I've seen teams with a "0.0" chance of making the playoffs in early August go on five-game winning streaks and then the number pops back up to a small but non-zero figure for a little bit. If you look at the chart for the NL Central you can see this happened with the Cubs a couple times in early July.

When does the "0.0" really mean zero?


FTL: "Probabilities are based on thousands of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season schedule incorporating each team's year-to-date run differential, current roster composition, playing time projections and remaining schedule."

It means they made the playoffs in less than 1 in 2000 (0.05%, which would round up) simulations.
 
2014-09-01 05:38:42 PM  

dywed88: FTL: "Probabilities are based on thousands of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season schedule incorporating each team's year-to-date run differential, current roster composition, playing time projections and remaining schedule."

It means they made the playoffs in less than 1 in 2000 (0.05%, which would round up) simulations.


Okay, but at some point around this part of the season it should be possible to cover all possible outcomes and not just the ones that factor in stuff like playing-time projection and so forth, and come up with a solution where the chance of the Cubs getting a wild-card spot is going to be zero and stay zero no matter what, even if the wild-card "elimination" number hasn't counted all the way down to zero yet.

I'm looking for a full-league version of this scenario:

Ten games to go.
Team A is 85-67 and has the last wild-card spot.
Team B is 83-69, two games out of the last wild-card spot but plays Team A six times.
Team C is 77-75, eight games out of the last wild card spot.

Team C wins their last ten games and finishes 87-75.
Team A loses their last ten and finishes 85-77, but since six of those games were against Team B, Team B went 6-4 at worst and finished with the last wild card spot at 89-73 - in other words, there's no chance at all for Team C to pass both Team A and Team B even though the standings say they started the final ten games at eight games out.

This would be vital information because there may be additional opportunities to heap abuse on the Cubs that we're not currently exploiting.
 
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