If you can read this, either the style sheet didn't load or you have an older browser that doesn't support style sheets. Try clearing your browser cache and refreshing the page.

(Washington Post)   There is no such thing as a swing voter   (washingtonpost.com) divider line 85
    More: Interesting, swing voters, party identification, response rate, presidential race, romney, election campaign  
•       •       •

1806 clicks; posted to Politics » on 20 Aug 2014 at 10:58 AM (18 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



85 Comments   (+0 »)
   
View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest

First | « | 1 | 2 | » | Last | Show all
 
2014-08-20 10:13:33 AM  
artforum.com
 
2014-08-20 10:16:57 AM  
If you believe that, I've got bridge to sell you in Brooklyn.
 
2014-08-20 10:19:51 AM  
Holy crap, a political article about statistics written by real statisticians.  I may actually have to read this one.
 
2014-08-20 10:21:05 AM  

thisisyourbrainonFark: [artforum.com image 450x419]


The differences between the two choices are so complete and so fundamental that it's hard to believe that a person could casually decide to switch teams.

Bisexuality is easy to understand. Current politics, not.
 
2014-08-20 10:26:37 AM  
Of course there are no swing voters... No one wants to hear Brian Setzer when they're trying to vote.
 
2014-08-20 10:32:50 AM  

FirstNationalBastard: Of course there are no swing voters... No one wants to hear Brian Setzer when they're trying to vote.


What happened to you?  You used to be funny.
 
2014-08-20 10:35:43 AM  
Only when I'm in the mood.
 
2014-08-20 10:37:36 AM  
You made a mistake. (Major party) candidates are so close together that picking one is like picking the other.
 
2014-08-20 10:45:17 AM  
Too long, didn't math: No one actually ever changes their mind about who they would vote for, they only change their mind about if they'll vote at all (or respond to polls).  Therefore elections are 99% about energizing the people who already support you, and not about arguing policy positions to convince the other side that you're right.
 
2014-08-20 10:48:45 AM  

RobertBruce: You made a mistake. (Major party) candidates are so close together that picking one is like picking the other.


Right. Almost identical.

i61.tinypic.com
BSABSV Mordor?
 
2014-08-20 10:49:08 AM  
That don't mean a thing.
 
2014-08-20 10:59:48 AM  

MrBallou: RobertBruce: You made a mistake. (Major party) candidates are so close together that picking one is like picking the other.

Right. Almost identical.

[i61.tinypic.com image 331x424]
BSABSV Mordor?


You gotta admit Saruman has a really nice lawn. Gorgeous. And without the appearance of an army of servants. I really must know how he got all that nice mulch. A few brown spots here and there though, he should probably throw down some fungicide or check for grubs.
 
2014-08-20 11:00:39 AM  
doo-ah, doo-ah, doo-ah, doo-ah
 
DGS [TotalFark]
2014-08-20 11:00:52 AM  
To be fair, I support that spanking bench, too.
 
2014-08-20 11:01:32 AM  
 When it looked like Romney jumped in popularity, what was really happening was that disaffected Democrats were not responding to the survey while resurgent Republicans were more likely to respond.


Huh, I just assumed the pollsters were lying sacks of shiat.
 
2014-08-20 11:05:57 AM  
That's ONE way to interpret "swing" voters.

I think the interpretation that is used more often is a voter who will vote for different parties on the same ballot or will switch from election to election, and TFA has NOTHING to say about this interpretation.
 
2014-08-20 11:07:54 AM  

dookdookdook: Too long, didn't math: No one actually ever changes their mind about who they would vote for, they only change their mind about if they'll vote at all (or respond to polls).  Therefore elections are 99% about energizing the people who already support you, and not about arguing policy positions to convince the other side that you're right.


I did.

2008, voted for McCain, and a mostly Republican ticket otherwise.
2012, upset by four years of barely concealed racist in the form of birtherism, I switched to a straight democrat ticket.  I even voted for the unemployed, possibly retarded guy who was living with his father and facing an obscenity charge who someone got the democratic nomination because I truly felt he would be a more responsible Senator than Jim DeMint.

And seeing as how DeMint decided to quit his job a year later I think my opinion in that matter was vindicated.
 
2014-08-20 11:09:13 AM  
The polls shifted in Romney's favor even though, had the election been held the week after the debate, the result would have been the same as it would have been had the election been held two weeks before

Um, no. The results would have been different because the same difference in enthusiasm that made some people uninterested in talking to pollsters would also make them less interested in voting.
 
2014-08-20 11:11:00 AM  

RobertBruce: You made a mistake. (Major party) candidates are so close together that picking one is like picking the other.


Go to Google. Look up voting records. Come back and say "My bad!"
 
Bf+
2014-08-20 11:11:10 AM  
Lemme guess.... So vote Republican?
 
2014-08-20 11:11:13 AM  

dookdookdook: Holy crap, a political article about statistics written by real statisticians.  I may actually have to read this one.


Not only that, but the statistician is debunking his own earlier work.
 
2014-08-20 11:12:54 AM  

thisisyourbrainonFark: [artforum.com image 450x419]


I'd just like to congratulate you on your work.  I almost spit
 
2014-08-20 11:12:55 AM  

12349876: That's ONE way to interpret "swing" voters.

I think the interpretation that is used more often is a voter who will vote for different parties on the same ballot or will switch from election to election, and TFA has NOTHING to say about this interpretation.


Err, the entire point of the article is that the evidence is that such people barely exist, based on the stats they had from the panel survey - see figure 6 in the article where only 0.5% of people switched from Romney to Obama or vice versa during the campaign, which obviously was a fairly negligible part of the swings shown poll results during that time.
 
2014-08-20 11:14:36 AM  
Not me.  I'm what's known as an Independent Voter.  I evaluate every candidate objectively and without bias.

Then, I vote for the Republican.
 
2014-08-20 11:17:25 AM  
Karac:I did.

Not in the sense the article is measuring.  What happened in the intervening 4 years might have changed your mind, but (unless you're the very rare exception) nothing that happened during the campaign had any chance of swinging you back Republican.
 
2014-08-20 11:18:49 AM  
I can't decide if I like that article.
 
2014-08-20 11:24:14 AM  
Sure their are. Apparently, they have their own clubs. My wife said something about visiting one.

www.thelostogle.com
 
2014-08-20 11:24:21 AM  

Rapmaster2000: Not me.  I'm what's known as an Independent Voter.  I evaluate every candidate objectively and without bias.

Then, I vote for the Republican.


Dad?
 
2014-08-20 11:25:44 AM  
Yes I do.
 
2014-08-20 11:26:17 AM  
img.fark.net
 
2014-08-20 11:26:30 AM  
Registered Independent. I would be a swing voter, except Republicans the last few years have been putting up the shiattiest candidates.

/get money out of politics.
 
2014-08-20 11:26:39 AM  
I'm more of a schwing voter.
wickedimproper.com

I don't think there is enough discussion about Titile IX and the importance it brings to Women's collegiate athletics. Clara Barton was a nursing pioneer. I have always supported the women's suffrage movement. Don't rape.
 
2014-08-20 11:28:17 AM  
Anyone who votes a straight party ticket is a dunderhead who should not be allowed to vote.
 
2014-08-20 11:33:20 AM  

Gary-L: Anyone who votes a straight party ticket is a dunderhead who should not be allowed to vote.


Haha! Good one. Really made me laugh.
 
2014-08-20 11:33:51 AM  

12349876: That's ONE way to interpret "swing" voters.

I think the interpretation that is used more often is a voter who will vote for different parties on the same ballot or will switch from election to election, and TFA has NOTHING to say about this interpretation.


Agreed,

in 2004

Bush - 51.1% of vote, 62MM votes
Kerry - 48.6% of vote, 59MM vote

2008

Obama - 52.9% of vote, 69.5MM votes
McCain - 45.7% of vote, 59.9MM votes

An interesting question would be to know if the difference between elections only or mostly had to do with getting out the vote.

From 2005 to 2008, by ideological or party affiliation, as a percentage, each category (Democrat/Republican/Independent, or liberal/conservative/moderate) increased its percentage of voting for the .  It only takes a small percent of the population to 'swing' the results.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_20 08
http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/elections/how_groups_voted/voted_04 .h tml
 
2014-08-20 11:35:20 AM  
There's a great West Wing rant about undecided voters that I can't seem to find.  Does anyone remember it? The idea is, generally, that maybe we want people out of the political process that can't tell the difference between the candidates....because they're idiots.
 
2014-08-20 11:35:53 AM  
As others have posted...swing voters don't work that way. It's an election to election thing, not 'swings' within the same election cycle.
 
2014-08-20 11:38:10 AM  

bdub77: MrBallou: RobertBruce: You made a mistake. (Major party) candidates are so close together that picking one is like picking the other.

Right. Almost identical.

[i61.tinypic.com image 331x424]
BSABSV Mordor?

You gotta admit Saruman has a really nice lawn. Gorgeous. And without the appearance of an army of servants. I really must know how he got all that nice mulch. A few brown spots here and there though, he should probably throw down some fungicide or check for grubs.


Radagast does all the work.
 
2014-08-20 11:41:11 AM  
While the article is interesting, I wonder if the information is useful. If the "swing" effect is just depressed response for one side or the other, might that not also translate into depressed voter turnout on election day for one candidate or the other? In which case, the polls are accurately measuring what people want to know: who will get the most votes in an election.
 
2014-08-20 11:46:10 AM  

IvyLady: There's a great West Wing rant about undecided voters that I can't seem to find.  Does anyone remember it? The idea is, generally, that maybe we want people out of the political process that can't tell the difference between the candidates....because they're idiots.


What, you don't like people days away from the election saying, "You know, I'm still not quite sure. I just don't have enough information yet to make a decision."

I want to slap those people. How the fark are you an undecided voter in this day and age? What is going to happen in those last 24 hours to change your mind?
 
2014-08-20 11:46:51 AM  
I remain a registered Republican, so they assume they have my vote, then I don't vote for them.
 
2014-08-20 11:48:25 AM  
I have two female friends who insist they only vote for the most attractive candidates because image matters worldwide, so they will actually vote for any party.

//While it makes perfect sense to them, it continually baffles me.
 
2014-08-20 11:48:26 AM  

bdub77: MrBallou: RobertBruce: You made a mistake. (Major party) candidates are so close together that picking one is like picking the other.

Right. Almost identical.

[i61.tinypic.com image 331x424]
BSABSV Mordor?

You gotta admit Saruman has a really nice lawn. Gorgeous. And without the appearance of an army of servants. I really must know how he got all that nice mulch. A few brown spots here and there though, he should probably throw down some fungicide or check for grubs.


Metaphorically, that's right. The GOP take care of their own interests and give a great big "I got Isegard, so fark you" to the rest of us.
 
2014-08-20 11:48:28 AM  
I swing. I vote.
 
2014-08-20 11:49:43 AM  
img.fark.net
 
2014-08-20 11:49:52 AM  

nmrsnr: While the article is interesting, I wonder if the information is useful. If the "swing" effect is just depressed response for one side or the other, might that not also translate into depressed voter turnout on election day for one candidate or the other? In which case, the polls are accurately measuring what people want to know: who will get the most votes in an election.


Well, understanding why the 'swing' effect is occurring allows for an enlightened response. If your candidate is falling behind, it might be better to focus on getting people more excited about voting rather than trying to change the minds of people who already intend to vote.
 
2014-08-20 11:52:02 AM  

Karac: dookdookdook: Too long, didn't math: No one actually ever changes their mind about who they would vote for, they only change their mind about if they'll vote at all (or respond to polls).  Therefore elections are 99% about energizing the people who already support you, and not about arguing policy positions to convince the other side that you're right.

I did.

2008, voted for McCain, and a mostly Republican ticket otherwise.
2012, upset by four years of barely concealed racist in the form of birtherism, I switched to a straight democrat ticket.  I even voted for the unemployed, possibly retarded guy who was living with his father and facing an obscenity charge who someone got the democratic nomination because I truly felt he would be a more responsible Senator than Jim DeMint.

And seeing as how DeMint decided to quit his job a year later I think my opinion in that matter was vindicated.


 I'm not going to lie, sometimes I look at Fark threats in the politics section and briefly have a "WAIT WHEN DID I STEP INTO THE MIRROR UNIVERSE" when I see certain farkers railing against republicans, due to my initial images having been formed when I joined in the early 2000's.
 
2014-08-20 11:52:51 AM  
Swing voters are real.  I am one of them.  Going into 2012 I was going to vote for Obama but then I found out that he liked arugula.... well that is not going to fly.  Switched to Romney but then I found out about his show horses and decided to switch back to Obama but then I heard about some video of Michelle saying something bad about Whitey Ford and I called the whole thing off and decided to spend election day drinking.
 
2014-08-20 11:53:17 AM  

TedDalton: 12349876: That's ONE way to interpret "swing" voters.

I think the interpretation that is used more often is a voter who will vote for different parties on the same ballot or will switch from election to election, and TFA has NOTHING to say about this interpretation.

Agreed,

in 2004

Bush - 51.1% of vote, 62MM votes
Kerry - 48.6% of vote, 59MM vote

2008

Obama - 52.9% of vote, 69.5MM votes
McCain - 45.7% of vote, 59.9MM votes

An interesting question would be to know if the difference between elections only or mostly had to do with getting out the vote.

From 2005 to 2008, by ideological or party affiliation, as a percentage, each category (Democrat/Republican/Independent, or liberal/conservative/moderate) increased its percentage of voting for the .  It only takes a small percent of the population to 'swing' the results.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_20 08
http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/elections/how_groups_voted/voted_04 .h tml


They aren't talking about between elections, they are talking about between polls within a single election - that less than 1% of voters will in one poll say they are voting for 1 candidate and later say they are voting for the other.  Meanwhile polls often depict changes of 5+% from one month to the next.  The question is: if the election were held in the week after after Obama didn't do great in that debate, would 4% of his voters actually have stayed home?  Or, as the authors suggest, did they just not really want to spend their time talking to pollsters?
 
2014-08-20 11:54:15 AM  

Ow! That was my feelings!: As others have posted...swing voters don't work that way. It's an election to election thing, not 'swings' within the same election cycle.


I agree with this.  My conversion from one party to another took place over a decade.  But now I'm pretty firmly set, and I can't imagine changing again.
 
Displayed 50 of 85 comments

First | « | 1 | 2 | » | Last | Show all

View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest


This thread is closed to new comments.

Continue Farking
Submit a Link »
On Twitter





In Other Media


  1. Links are submitted by members of the Fark community.

  2. When community members submit a link, they also write a custom headline for the story.

  3. Other Farkers comment on the links. This is the number of comments. Click here to read them.

  4. Click here to submit a link.

Report