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(Washington Post)   Since it's obvious that Republicans are going to re-take the Senate, do we even need to bother with elections?   (washingtonpost.com ) divider line
    More: Obvious, Senate, Stuart Rothenberg, Cook Political Report, Tom Harkin, red states, swing states, Monkey Cage, Larry Sabato  
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2573 clicks; posted to Politics » on 06 Aug 2014 at 6:29 PM (1 year ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2014-08-06 04:23:21 PM  
It would not at all be surprising if the Republicans got a 51-49 senate majority next year. What would be amazing would be if they could keep it. 2008 was the bid Democrat supermajority election, that will be corrected back to the mean this year, but 2010 was the Tea Party's big Republican wave, and they aren't likely to stick around, especially since the mainline GOP hate them more with each passing day. Plus, Presidential elections tend to help Democrats in terms of turnout.

That being said, it's far from a foregone conclusion, rape Tourette's might claim yet another victim, you never can tell.
 
2014-08-06 04:40:52 PM  
Subby needs to stop getting high and submitting headlines
 
2014-08-06 04:41:27 PM  
No election is over until it happens. Denny Rehberg was predicted to win Montana in 2012. Rick Berg was predicted to win North Dakota in 2012. Sharron Angle was predicted to win Nevada in 2010. Ken Buck was predicted to win Colorado in 2010. Yet I don't see any of them in the Senate today.
 
2014-08-06 04:42:34 PM  
A third factor is the invisible ground game. Democrats say they are pouring more money into identifying, registering and turning out their voters than in any previous midterm election. One strategist predicted privately that what the Democrats are doing in one contested state will shock people.

Begun to sing, the fat lady, she has not.
 
2014-08-06 04:51:23 PM  
Many are picking Mary Landrieu as one Democrat who is doomed, but I'm not buying it. She's weathered other storms, though she doesn't have Bill Jefferson's big, corrupt machine priming the pump in the New Orleans area anymore. (98% voter turnout in some New Orleans precincts. In a mid-term. When stat turnout was less than half that. Yeah, seems totally legit.) Anyway, we shall see.
 
2014-08-06 05:19:48 PM  
i1297.photobucket.com
 
2014-08-06 05:22:34 PM  
Elections first.  Vote rigging after.
 
2014-08-06 05:37:27 PM  
I don't think it's obvious.  Likely, but far from certain.

Also, I'm pretty sure there are more things on the ballot than elections for Senate seats.
 
2014-08-06 05:42:06 PM  
With a big pic of turtle-boy who is currently losing in the polls
 
2014-08-06 06:24:56 PM  
First off, what is Nate Silver saying?

Secondly, this is bad news and not in the way most farkers think.  The problem if the GOP wins the Senate is that they won't change, they won't moderate their social conservatism, and they'll be more inept than usual.
 
2014-08-06 06:33:20 PM  
Well shiat, if we don't have elections, then what was the point of all the time, effort and money poured into the gerrymandering and vote suppression?
 
2014-08-06 06:33:40 PM  
I am not ruling out the dead girl or live boy being in play with that bunch by election time.
 
2014-08-06 06:35:11 PM  

GameSprocket: I am not ruling out the dead girl or live boy being in play with that bunch by election time.


So you trade in your seat in Congress for the morning show on MSNBC. What's the big deal?
 
2014-08-06 06:36:37 PM  

nmrsnr: It would not at all be surprising if the Republicans got a 51-49 senate majority next year. What would be amazing would be if they could keep it. 2008 was the bid Democrat supermajority election, that will be corrected back to the mean this year, but 2010 was the Tea Party's big Republican wave, and they aren't likely to stick around, especially since the mainline GOP hate them more with each passing day. Plus, Presidential elections tend to help Democrats in terms of turnout.

That being said, it's far from a foregone conclusion, rape Tourette's might claim yet another victim, you never can tell.


But think about how much damage they could do in those 2 years...
 
2014-08-06 06:36:50 PM  
These farking jackwads have a handful of days  comingin September to prevent another government shut down.  No, this election can not be called yet.
 
2014-08-06 06:37:11 PM  
Because if it happens and I believe it will happen, the screaming from the leftist echo chamber will be as amusing as watching the right's echo chamber in 2012
 
2014-08-06 06:37:51 PM  
img.washingtonpost.comimg2.wikia.nocookie.net
 
2014-08-06 06:38:13 PM  

slayer199: First off, what is Nate Silver saying?

Secondly, this is bad news and not in the way most farkers think.  The problem if the GOP wins the Senate is that they won't change, they won't moderate their social conservatism, and they'll be more inept than usual.


60% they take the senate, as of a few days ago, trending slightly upwards.  But he admits it's a little early and the primaries are still messy.
 
2014-08-06 06:38:31 PM  

slayer199: First off, what is Nate Silver saying?

Secondly, this is bad news and not in the way most farkers think.  The problem if the GOP wins the Senate is that they won't change, they won't moderate their social conservatism, and they'll be more inept than usual.


GOP favoured to take senate, according to Nate
 
2014-08-06 06:40:03 PM  
The Reps will get a bump in November, which will be nearly meaningless with President Veto sitting in the White House. Then the door will swing back in a big way for the Dems in 2016.

The GOP has done absolutely NOTHING to correct their massive demographic problem, having chosen to double-down on their outdated stances against womens' rights, gay rights, and minorities. They have a 62% unfavorability rating among women (with a woman probably running against them for the White House in 2 years!), and 65% unfavorability among Latno voters (which they reacted to by overplaying a border "crisis" and killing immigration reform),

The races are stacked against the Dems this year, so the real test will be whether the GOP under-performs with races leaning in their favor. Worst case scenario for the GOP: They win the Senate, but not with as many seats as they should have. Using their control of both chambers, they are then strong-armed by the Teabaggers into a very unpopular impeachment attempt that only bolsters the Dem wave in 2016.
 
2014-08-06 06:40:28 PM  

slayer199: First off, what is Nate Silver saying?

Secondly, this is bad news and not in the way most farkers think.  The problem if the GOP wins the Senate is that they won't change, they won't moderate their social conservatism, and they'll be more inept than usual.


Nate Silver is giving the GOP 60% odds of a majority. That seems pretty close to reality me.

And yes, I agree that they will see taking the majority as a mandate for their agenda and go further off the deep end.
 
2014-08-06 06:40:53 PM  
img.fark.net
 
2014-08-06 06:42:38 PM  

Smeggy Smurf: Because if it happens and I believe it will happen, the screaming from the leftist echo chamber will be as amusing as watching the right's echo chamber in 2012


What do you mean? The leftists will scream that this can't be happening? I find that hard to believe.
 
2014-08-06 06:42:53 PM  

shower_in_my_socks: The GOP has done absolutely NOTHING to correct their massive demographic problem, having chosen to double-down on their outdated stances against womens' rights, gay rights, and minorities. They have a 62% unfavorability rating among women (with a woman probably running against them for the White House in 2 years!), and 65% unfavorability among Latno voters (which they reacted to by overplaying a border "crisis" and killing immigration reform),


And yet, they're gaining seats.  There's something wrong with this picture.
 
2014-08-06 06:44:29 PM  

quatchi: A third factor is the invisible ground game. Democrats say they are pouring more money into identifying, registering and turning out their voters than in any previous midterm election. One strategist predicted privately that what the Democrats are doing in one contested state will shock people.

Begun to sing, the fat lady, she has not.


If the Dems can fix their low voter turnout problem for midterms, and the GOP lets Ted Cruz run them right into another government shutdown next month, all bets are off. If the GOP can't win a majority with so many races in their favor, they are properly farked for a long time.
 
2014-08-06 06:44:54 PM  
The world looks on in amazement as the most advanced and powerful nation to ever exist allows theocrats, anti-science industry shills, illiterate fools, xenophobes, jingoists, Ayn Rand ideologues, con men, and just plain assholes to take over.

I know I can't figure it out. Normally I would follow the money but it has gotten to the point it doesn't even make sense for the monied interests. First class goes down too if the ship sinks but they don't seem to care any more than the broke redneck fighting Obamacare.

Somebody explain it.
 
2014-08-06 06:45:38 PM  

born_yesterday: shower_in_my_socks: The GOP has done absolutely NOTHING to correct their massive demographic problem, having chosen to double-down on their outdated stances against womens' rights, gay rights, and minorities. They have a 62% unfavorability rating among women (with a woman probably running against them for the White House in 2 years!), and 65% unfavorability among Latno voters (which they reacted to by overplaying a border "crisis" and killing immigration reform),

And yet, they're gaining seats.  There's something wrong with this picture.


Some of it is political gerrymandering. Some of it is that Democrats have spontaneously sorted themselves into living in areas with a high concentration of like-minded people. Running up the main is irrelevant when you only need 50%+1 votes to win.
 
2014-08-06 06:46:42 PM  

born_yesterday: shower_in_my_socks: The GOP has done absolutely NOTHING to correct their massive demographic problem, having chosen to double-down on their outdated stances against womens' rights, gay rights, and minorities. They have a 62% unfavorability rating among women (with a woman probably running against them for the White House in 2 years!), and 65% unfavorability among Latno voters (which they reacted to by overplaying a border "crisis" and killing immigration reform),

And yet, they're gaining seats.  There's something wrong with this picture.


Well when you rig it so you can win your seat with only 45% of the population and put jim crow laws back on the books you start to see what is wrong with the picture.
 
2014-08-06 06:47:40 PM  

AntiNerd: The world looks on in amazement as the most advanced and powerful nation to ever exist allows theocrats, anti-science industry shills, illiterate fools, xenophobes, jingoists, Ayn Rand ideologues, con men, and just plain assholes to take over.

I know I can't figure it out. Normally I would follow the money but it has gotten to the point it doesn't even make sense for the monied interests. First class goes down too if the ship sinks but they don't seem to care any more than the broke redneck fighting Obamacare.

Somebody explain it.


Spite and Fear.
 
2014-08-06 06:47:56 PM  

AntiNerd: The world looks on in amazement as the most advanced and powerful nation to ever exist allows theocrats, anti-science industry shills, illiterate fools, xenophobes, jingoists, Ayn Rand ideologues, con men, and just plain assholes to take over.


Maybe it's because of the trillions in new debt Obama added; the U.S.'s diminished stature in the world under his leading from behind; the borders so porous an eight year-old can breach it; bankrupt cities (mainly Democrat-controllled cities); the Obamacare lies . . . gee, should I go on?
 
2014-08-06 06:48:50 PM  

donwregefark: AntiNerd: The world looks on in amazement as the most advanced and powerful nation to ever exist allows theocrats, anti-science industry shills, illiterate fools, xenophobes, jingoists, Ayn Rand ideologues, con men, and just plain assholes to take over.

Maybe it's because of the trillions in new debt Obama added; the U.S.'s diminished stature in the world under his leading from behind; the borders so porous an eight year-old can breach it; bankrupt cities (mainly Democrat-controllled cities); the Obamacare lies . . . gee, should I go on?


You probably shouldn't. Eventually you'd have to start using facts.
 
2014-08-06 06:50:52 PM  

born_yesterday: shower_in_my_socks: The GOP has done absolutely NOTHING to correct their massive demographic problem, having chosen to double-down on their outdated stances against womens' rights, gay rights, and minorities. They have a 62% unfavorability rating among women (with a woman probably running against them for the White House in 2 years!), and 65% unfavorability among Latno voters (which they reacted to by overplaying a border "crisis" and killing immigration reform),

And yet, they're gaining seats.  There's something wrong with this picture.


There's nothing wrong with the picture at all. Dems don't do well in midterms, and this time around there are a lot of Dems trying to defend seats in traditionally red territory. It would be a mistake to assume this is a "trend" and the Reps can continue to do well on their current course in 2016 and beyond. But please proceed.
 
2014-08-06 06:55:23 PM  

donwregefark: gee, should I go on?


No.  Your make believe world is boring.
 
2014-08-06 06:56:33 PM  

donwregefark: AntiNerd: The world looks on in amazement as the most advanced and powerful nation to ever exist allows theocrats, anti-science industry shills, illiterate fools, xenophobes, jingoists, Ayn Rand ideologues, con men, and just plain assholes to take over.

Maybe it's because of the trillions in new debt Obama added; the U.S.'s diminished stature in the world under his leading from behind; the borders so porous an eight year-old can breach it; bankrupt cities (mainly Democrat-controllled cities); the Obamacare lies . . . gee, should I go on?


You forgot Benghazi, IRS, Fast and Furious, forging am American birth certificate, trying to hire murderer lovers, smoking the reefer, lying about his age, spending $200 billion a day to go to India, eating arugula, making kids gay, raping babies, and and in general being the most anti-American person in the history of the universe.
 
2014-08-06 06:58:15 PM  

donwregefark: Maybe it's because of the trillions in new debt Obama added; the U.S.'s diminished stature in the world under his leading from behind; the borders so porous an eight year-old can breach it; bankrupt cities (mainly Democrat-controllled cities); the Obamacare lies . . . gee, should I go on?


The wars, tax cuts, and recession from the previous Republican administration added almost all of the debt. Our "diminished stature in the world" exists only in your imagination. The borders are no less secure now than they have been under previous administrations, Obama has deported more people in his first 6 years in office than Bush did in 2008, and Latino immigration to the US has fallen to net zero. The "Obamacare lies" are really one "lie" where people with the shiattiest insurance imaginable got better insurance.

So, dumbfark, if you do decide to go on, try bringing actual facts. This isn't the Breitbart circlejerk forum that you're used to.
 
2014-08-06 06:58:46 PM  
Yeah, just read this http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republican-gop-senate-forecast/.   The Republicans are slightly favored to win a Senate Majority, the reasons are pretty self-evident and have nothing to do with Obama, but is all about where those up for election come from.
 
2014-08-06 06:59:27 PM  
I hope the Democrats do well in November.

I dread being under Republican incompetence again at the federal level.

/Sucks enough at the Alabama level.
 
2014-08-06 06:59:32 PM  
Did anyone actually see a citation from 538 in the text? Because the only one I saw was linking to the main page and after surfing about 3 and a half pages of the archives I didn't find an article that matched up with the theme of the WP article. I did however see WP ever so briefly and grudgingly admit that "Others think the battle will continue to rage until November" Why do I have a feeling its was 538 who thought that it was still up in the air? As far as the other five so called "sources" they fall into two categories A: Sites I know are bullshiat, and B: shiatty Blogs I've never heard of. So I wouldn't start measuring curtains quite yet teabaggers you folks seem to ignore the fact that you don't so well in general elections as you do in shiat podunk primaries.
 
2014-08-06 06:59:41 PM  

shower_in_my_socks: Obama has deported more people in his first 6 years in office than Bush did in 2008


Should have said "than Bush did in 8."
 
2014-08-06 07:01:53 PM  
Obama will have to veto in the neighborhood of 100 flatly partisan bills. The republicans will do everything in their power to make HIM the reason for Washington lack of action. They will do everything they can to make him toxic - and the democrats with him - by 2016.

They'll lose the senate again in 2016, but they have a pathway to victory in the White House and a lock in the House.
 
2014-08-06 07:02:09 PM  

ScaryBottles: Did anyone actually see a citation from 538 in the text?



I think Silver gives the GOP a 60% chance of winning the Senate. But the sensationalist media, of course, is going to take that slight edge and run with the story that the Dems are going to get their asses kicked and have no chance because that shiat gets clicks.

As a libby lib, I'm perfectly fine with this narrative because it will only help get Dem voters off their asses in November.
 
2014-08-06 07:05:56 PM  

shower_in_my_socks: ScaryBottles: Did anyone actually see a citation from 538 in the text?


I think Silver gives the GOP a 60% chance of winning the Senate. But the sensationalist media, of course, is going to take that slight edge and run with the story that the Dems are going to get their asses kicked and have no chance because that shiat gets clicks.

As a libby lib, I'm perfectly fine with this narrative because it will only help get Dem voters off their asses in November.


Thats what I figured. You make a good point about motivating people though. I just remember there were a whole lot of articles like these around October of 2012.
 
2014-08-06 07:06:46 PM  

Deneb81: Obama will have to veto in the neighborhood of 100 flatly partisan bills.


Considering that the House can't even pass a bill praising Pope Francis, I would love to see the Republicans attempt to send 100 bills to Obama's desk. Assuming they can even agree with themselves enough to do it, it would finally make public exactly what today's the GOP stands for. I estimate they will attempt to deport a shiatload of Latino immigrants, strip healthcare coverage from 20 million people, attempt to further curtail gay rights, pass laws regulating womens' reproductive rights, and so on. If they think that will make the DEMS toxic, and help GOP chances in 2016, then give me a ticket to that freakshow right now.
 
2014-08-06 07:08:30 PM  
img.4plebs.org
 
2014-08-06 07:08:46 PM  
allthingsd.com
 
2014-08-06 07:09:10 PM  
"Republicans are going to re-take the Senate" is believed only by those who accept aggregate polling analysis as gospel, yet have any of those individuals examined the success records of those analysts, or have any of them seriously examined the evidence of prescient individuals who have worked to undo the inherent skewing of political surveys?
 
2014-08-06 07:09:23 PM  
*shakes tiny fist of impotent rage*
 
2014-08-06 07:11:09 PM  

shower_in_my_socks: ScaryBottles: Did anyone actually see a citation from 538 in the text?


I think Silver gives the GOP a 60% chance of winning the Senate. But the sensationalist media, of course, is going to take that slight edge and run with the story that the Dems are going to get their asses kicked and have no chance because that shiat gets clicks.

As a libby lib, I'm perfectly fine with this narrative because it will only help get Dem voters off their asses in November.


I give it less credence than that because there's not a lot of poll data to work with.  Some states haven't even had primaries yet.
 
2014-08-06 07:14:48 PM  

Smeggy Smurf: Because if it happens and I believe it will happen, the screaming from the leftist echo chamber will be as amusing as watching the right's echo chamber in 2012


Except most people on the left seem to be agreeing that they're probably going to lose some seats on this one.

The difference between the right and the left is that the left is reality based; they don't tend to heave the same appetite for being told what they want to hear.
 
2014-08-06 07:14:55 PM  
What does it matter if the Republicans get a majority in the Senate, since (thanks to the Republicans) you now need 60 seats to get anything through the Senate anyway?
 
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