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(Small Wars Journal)   In a way, ISIS has solved Iraq's constitutional crisis   (smallwarsjournal.com ) divider line
    More: Interesting, Iraq, DOD Red Teaming, red team, Kirkuk, time limits, john carter, Islamic Caliphate, means tests  
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6713 clicks; posted to Main » on 31 Jul 2014 at 1:04 PM (1 year ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2014-07-31 09:32:28 AM  
Yeahhhh...but rendering the constitution moot is less like a solution and more like a do-over.

I don't reformat my hard drive every time the computer starts acting up.
 
2014-07-31 12:03:47 PM  

Diogenes: Yeahhhh...but rendering the constitution moot is less like a solution and more like a do-over.

I don't reformat my hard drive every time the computer starts acting up.


I take over my intern's machine, fill it with spam and viruses, and declare Mission Accomplished.
 
2014-07-31 12:56:28 PM  

Angry Drunk Bureaucrat: Diogenes: Yeahhhh...but rendering the constitution moot is less like a solution and more like a do-over.

I don't reformat my hard drive every time the computer starts acting up.

I take over my intern's machine, fill it with spam and viruses, and declare Mission Accomplished.


We will, in fact, be greeted as administrators.
 
2014-07-31 01:07:01 PM  

Diogenes: Yeahhhh...but rendering the constitution moot is less like a solution and more like a do-over.

I don't reformat my hard drive every time the computer starts acting up.


You do if you don't have a solid state one.
 
2014-07-31 01:08:33 PM  
In a way, getting shot in the face cured my cancer problem.
 
2014-07-31 01:08:40 PM  
Kind of like how we solved their problem with Saddam.
 
2014-07-31 01:14:34 PM  
Archer, etc.

Ok, that's out of the way.
 
2014-07-31 01:15:45 PM  
Maybe we should just fire everyone in the U.N. and replace them with sysadmins.
 
2014-07-31 01:17:58 PM  
 
2014-07-31 01:22:38 PM  

Loadmaster: Thanks, Obama.

buzzpo.com/remember-george-w-bush-predicted-exactly-happen-pulled-tr oo ps-iraq-like-obama-wanted/


One assumes you have a point, though I'll be damned if I can figure out what it is.
 
2014-07-31 01:27:43 PM  

Diogenes: Angry Drunk Bureaucrat: Diogenes: Yeahhhh...but rendering the constitution moot is less like a solution and more like a do-over.

I don't reformat my hard drive every time the computer starts acting up.

I take over my intern's machine, fill it with spam and viruses, and declare Mission Accomplished.

We will, in fact, be greeted as administrators.


Awesome...

Pretty good article.  I would tend to agree - I dont ever see Iraq coming back together under a central government.
 
2014-07-31 01:29:31 PM  
The ISIS seem like nice rational folks who are willing to hear others differences from their own.
 
2014-07-31 01:33:08 PM  
Short of an American intervention, which is highly unlikely in the near term, Iraq is effectively partitioned. It is highly likely that the strong central model of Iraq will ever return short of absolute victory by al-Baghdadi, or Caliph Ibrahim, as he now fashions himself. The winner, of course, is Iran.

So ... either they have a brutal dictator that may or may not have strong ties to the US, or they see 3+ new nations.

I like map changes. So cool.
 
2014-07-31 01:33:34 PM  
ISIS executes their enemies en mass, by thousands, with horrifying brutality, and puts the videos on youtube.

I've read, don't know if it's true, that hundreds of thousands of people flee before their approach.

I would definitely say "they were better off with Saddam".

And it's not going to stop in the next month or year either.

And who do you think is going to be thought responsible for that? For generations to come?
 
2014-07-31 01:36:13 PM  
So we will have Kurdistan, the Islamic Caliphate, and a Rump State Formerly Known as Iraq (RSFKI).  Brilliant.

CPT Dennis Pintor, RIP.
 
2014-07-31 01:36:38 PM  

Grahor: ISIS executes their enemies en mass, by thousands, with horrifying brutality, and puts the videos on youtube.

I've read, don't know if it's true, that hundreds of thousands of people flee before their approach.

I would definitely say "they were better off with Saddam".

And it's not going to stop in the next month or year either.

And who do you think is going to be thought responsible for that? For generations to come?


I just got done watching a new hour long ISIS promotional video. Full of mass murders, murder murders, IED murders etc etc.
 
2014-07-31 01:36:39 PM  

qorkfiend: One assumes you have a point, though I'll be damned if I can figure out what it is.


The point was that the US should have kept their soldiers in Iraq indefinitely, serving, if you wish, as a private guard for Maliki. Best part? Forever!

The point certainly wasn't "when we invade, give military support of otherwise spread democracy, horrendous shiat is happening, because we don't know what we are doing. May be we should try to learn how to do it before actually doing it ever again?"

Naaaaah, of course not. Let's all go bomb Ukrainian separatists.
 
2014-07-31 01:41:46 PM  

Nogale: Maybe we should just fire everyone in the U.N. and replace them with sysadmins.


"Hamas is shooting rockets into a residential neighborhood again! What are we going to do???"

"Have you tried turning it off and back on again?"
 
2014-07-31 01:42:13 PM  

styckx: I just got done watching a new hour long ISIS promotional video. Full of mass murders, murder murders, IED murders etc etc.


Yeah. Those videos are all over Russian internet, with the commentary by the lines "look what happens when America comes to help you." Pretty good propaganda job, I have to say. For a lot of people "America" and the things in the videos are going to be forever connected on emotional level.
 
2014-07-31 01:58:00 PM  

NEPAman: So we will have Kurdistan, the Islamic Caliphate, and a Rump State Formerly Known as Iraq (RSFKI). Brilliant.


Wasnt this actually recommended by some as a possible rebuilding solution?  I remember hearing someone suggest a three state solution.
 
2014-07-31 01:59:22 PM  

Grahor: styckx: I just got done watching a new hour long ISIS promotional video. Full of mass murders, murder murders, IED murders etc etc.

Yeah. Those videos are all over Russian internet, with the commentary by the lines "look what happens when America comes to help you." Pretty good propaganda job, I have to say. For a lot of people "America" and the things in the videos are going to be forever connected on emotional level.


What's hard to tell is how much is propaganda vs facts because the MSM by reporting the propaganda are actually spreading it. No one is actually verifying any claims or attempting to debunk it etc. It's just spread. If you read now about the ISIS you will be under the impression all of Europe is in danger because all the poor people in the region are signing  up to the ISIS because dying for Allah is better than their poor people lives wherever they're at now.
 
2014-07-31 02:04:48 PM  

styckx: The ISIS seem like nice rational folks who are willing to hear others differences from their own.


Oh they will still pump of the rhetoric, and will certainly implement sharia law. But running a state has a way of radicalizing you as you try to feed, clothe employ and deal with the people you rule.
 
2014-07-31 02:05:26 PM  
Correction: De-Radicalizing
 
2014-07-31 02:06:08 PM  
Iran will probably wait until ISIS cleanses Iraq. Then Iran will invade Iraq and complete the victory.
 
2014-07-31 02:08:24 PM  
Hmm, seems to me this is what a lot of people said would eventually happen, although I had bet that the sector under the fundamentalist caliphate would have been Shia, not Sunni. I'd guessed the Sunnis would end up with the Rump State.
 
2014-07-31 02:28:04 PM  

qorkfiend: Loadmaster: Thanks, Obama.

buzzpo.com/remember-george-w-bush-predicted-exactly-happen-pulled-tr oo ps-iraq-like-obama-wanted/

One assumes you have a point, though I'll be damned if I can figure out what it is.


He does, but if he combs his hair and wears a hat no-one will ever know
 
2014-07-31 02:45:04 PM  
It could have been split up long ago, thus eliminating the middleman. To be fair, it would have ruffled everyone's feathers. I'm sure Iran and Turkey weren't fans of the U.S. doing it.

But the inevitable has come to pass.

I am shocked Afghanistan has held together so long.

The only good news I've heard out of the Country Formally Known as Iraq? The marshes are coming back.
 
2014-07-31 02:45:21 PM  

onzmadi: styckx: The ISIS seem like nice rational folks who are willing to hear others differences from their own.

Oh they will still pump of the rhetoric, and will certainly implement sharia law. But running a state has a way of radicalizing you as you try to feed, clothe employ and deal with the people you rule.


That's even assuming they hold onto it. Once they start pissing off the Shia militias (like Al Sadr's) or Iran or the Kurds, they are in deep shiat. Kurds already whooped there ass when they tried to invade Kurdistan, and if they really are serious about invading a whole bunch of areas, they won't last long at all.

I think at this point they are lucky that Al Malaki was a total jackass to the Sunnis and that no one wants Iraq
 
2014-07-31 02:49:54 PM  

onzmadi: Oh they will still pump of the rhetoric, and will certainly implement sharia law. But running a state has a way of de-radicalizing you as you try to feed, clothe employ and deal with the people you rule.


Well, when Taliban run Afghanistan, I wouldn't say they were very de-radicalized.

In fact, as I remember history, it takes roughly 20 to 30 years for a new radical government to become less radical.. and even then it's not always the same as non-radical.

See: North Korea, for example.
 
2014-07-31 03:03:58 PM  

machoprogrammer: onzmadi: styckx: The ISIS seem like nice rational folks who are willing to hear others differences from their own.

Oh they will still pump of the rhetoric, and will certainly implement sharia law. But running a state has a way of radicalizing you as you try to feed, clothe employ and deal with the people you rule.

That's even assuming they hold onto it. Once they start pissing off the Shia militias (like Al Sadr's) or Iran or the Kurds, they are in deep shiat. Kurds already whooped there ass when they tried to invade Kurdistan, and if they really are serious about invading a whole bunch of areas, they won't last long at all.

I think at this point they are lucky that Al Malaki was a total jackass to the Sunnis and that no one wants Iraq


Governing and holding and area seems much more difficult than marauding and seizing one.
 
2014-07-31 03:10:14 PM  

qorkfiend: Loadmaster: Thanks, Obama.

buzzpo.com/remember-george-w-bush-predicted-exactly-happen-pulled-tr oo ps-iraq-like-obama-wanted/

One assumes you have a point, though I'll be damned if I can figure out what it is.


It's at least one of B-b-b-but Bush!" or "Thanks Obama!"
 
2014-07-31 03:13:49 PM  

dionysusaur: qorkfiend: Loadmaster: Thanks, Obama.

buzzpo.com/remember-george-w-bush-predicted-exactly-happen-pulled-tr oo ps-iraq-like-obama-wanted/

One assumes you have a point, though I'll be damned if I can figure out what it is.

It's at least one of B-b-b-but Bush!" or "Thanks Obama!"


Could always go with "The president is near!"
 
2014-07-31 03:19:22 PM  

xanadian: Nogale: Maybe we should just fire everyone in the U.N. and replace them with sysadmins.

"Hamas is shooting rockets into a residential neighborhood again! What are we going to do???"

"Have you tried turning it off and back on again?"


Be sure to uplug it and wait 30 seconds before plugging it back in.
 
2014-07-31 03:20:11 PM  
Apparently, they can't be much worse than Maliki.

And I'm not sure why the fark Iraq shouldn't be partitioned. The Sunni and Shia and Kurds farking hate each other. Forcing them to live together in harmony is stupid.

BTW, the title of the magazine amuses me. Is there a Big Wars Journal?
 
2014-07-31 03:24:01 PM  

Gunny Highway: NEPAman: So we will have Kurdistan, the Islamic Caliphate, and a Rump State Formerly Known as Iraq (RSFKI). Brilliant.

Wasnt this actually recommended by some as a possible rebuilding solution?  I remember hearing someone suggest a three state solution.


Turkey vetoed it. Allowing a Kurdish state to come into being is to them an act of war. So long as they are part of NATO we will never support a Kurdish state. Turkey is central to containing Russia, which has always been NATO's reason for existence. As long as the Kremlin stands we will ensure Turkey is not pissed off at us.
 
2014-07-31 03:33:30 PM  
FTFA: An independent Kurdistan suddenly doesn't seem so bad to Turkey when contrasted with having an autonomous region ruled by jihadist loons on her border.
 
2014-07-31 03:36:51 PM  

Smelly Pirate Hooker: And I'm not sure why the fark Iraq shouldn't be partitioned.


In theory, there are many reasons for that. Like, without economies of scale separated economics of the resulting countries will stagnate and die (as opposed to the economy of Iraq being the powerhouse it is now).

In practice, Kurds would probably use their state to increase terrorism against Turkey. Shia part will join Iran, thus increasing Axis of Evil, as was diplomatically stated by one elder statesman. And Sunni part will probably will just be an another somali-like shiathole.

Which is not much different than how the situation stands now.

But the philosophical reason is much more important. If Iraq can be partitioned, why can't Lybia be partitioned? Angola, Mozambique, whatever? Why can't Ukraine be partitioned? Why can't US be partitioned into True American Jesusland and Unholy Liberal Buttsex Hellholes of Satan Himself, finally finishing The War of Northern Aggression? If one country can be partitioned, all can... Or can they?

Generally, partitioning a country is something frowned upon by people who don't like the idea of countries partitioning spreading through the minds.
 
2014-07-31 03:46:31 PM  

Smelly Pirate Hooker: FTFA: An independent Kurdistan suddenly doesn't seem so bad to Turkey when contrasted with having an autonomous region ruled by jihadist loons on her border.


SHiiiiiiaaaat, gentlemen.  Turkey should be willing to absorb kurdistan into Turkey.  Sure, they hate the Kurds like poison, but they DO come with a considerable oil dowry.

So the region is moving to a zone of danger?
 
2014-07-31 03:46:38 PM  

Grahor: Generally, partitioning a country is something frowned upon by people who don't like the idea of countries partitioning spreading through the minds.


That all makes sense.  What is the opposite of partitioning because that seems like it is pretty dangerous too.

'Lines-in-the-Sand'-ing?
 
2014-07-31 03:47:01 PM  

BolloxReader: Gunny Highway: NEPAman: So we will have Kurdistan, the Islamic Caliphate, and a Rump State Formerly Known as Iraq (RSFKI). Brilliant.

Wasnt this actually recommended by some as a possible rebuilding solution?  I remember hearing someone suggest a three state solution.

Turkey vetoed it. Allowing a Kurdish state to come into being is to them an act of war. So long as they are part of NATO we will never support a Kurdish state. Turkey is central to containing Russia, which has always been NATO's reason for existence. As long as the Kremlin stands we will ensure Turkey is not pissed off at us.


Turkey has taken a softer stance to Iraqi Kurdistan now that they're building an oil pipeline through Turkey.from Iraqi Kurdistan (Maliki wasn't too happy about that).  Also, the Iraqi Kurdistan gov't has been really neutral w/ the issue of the Turkish Kurdish rebels, not even retaliating when Turkish war planes bombed Turkish Kurd rebels fleeing into Iraqi Kurdistan.
 
2014-07-31 03:55:15 PM  

Gunny Highway: Grahor: Generally, partitioning a country is something frowned upon by people who don't like the idea of countries partitioning spreading through the minds.

That all makes sense.  What is the opposite of partitioning because that seems like it is pretty dangerous too.

'Lines-in-the-Sand'-ing?


Consolidation. Or "gathering of lands, culturally and historically united". You know, the thing Russia did with Crimea. Generally frowned upon too, yeah.

Generally, anything but status quo is frowned upon. Because we live in a paradise and any changes are for the worse.
 
2014-07-31 03:59:48 PM  

Grahor: Smelly Pirate Hooker: And I'm not sure why the fark Iraq shouldn't be partitioned.

In theory, there are many reasons for that. Like, without economies of scale separated economics of the resulting countries will stagnate and die (as opposed to the economy of Iraq being the powerhouse it is now).

In practice, Kurds would probably use their state to increase terrorism against Turkey. Shia part will join Iran, thus increasing Axis of Evil, as was diplomatically stated by one elder statesman. And Sunni part will probably will just be an another somali-like shiathole.

Which is not much different than how the situation stands now.

But the philosophical reason is much more important. If Iraq can be partitioned, why can't Lybia be partitioned? Angola, Mozambique, whatever? Why can't Ukraine be partitioned? Why can't US be partitioned into True American Jesusland and Unholy Liberal Buttsex Hellholes of Satan Himself, finally finishing The War of Northern Aggression? If one country can be partitioned, all can... Or can they?

Generally, partitioning a country is something frowned upon by people who don't like the idea of countries partitioning spreading through the minds.


"Partitioning" is just a smaller word for "creating new countries." Us whiteys did a shiatload of that in the early part of the 20th century. And ended up with Iraq, among others. "Iraq" has been a country for less than 100 years, and they weren't too happy about it when it became official. They're apparently still not happy. I say we let them have a relatively amicable divorce without any further interference from us. If we want to cozy up to the Kurds in exchange for their oil, cool.

We already fought a civil war to keep the United States united. Our history isn't relevant here.
 
2014-07-31 04:00:11 PM  

Grahor: Gunny Highway: Grahor: Generally, partitioning a country is something frowned upon by people who don't like the idea of countries partitioning spreading through the minds.

That all makes sense.  What is the opposite of partitioning because that seems like it is pretty dangerous too.

'Lines-in-the-Sand'-ing?

Consolidation. Or "gathering of lands, culturally and historically united". You know, the thing Russia did with Crimea. Generally frowned upon too, yeah.

Generally, anything but status quo is frowned upon. Because we live in a paradise and any changes are for the worse.


"Life's a biatch and then you die" can be applied to nation states too, I think.
 
2014-07-31 04:16:58 PM  

Smelly Pirate Hooker: "Partitioning" is just a smaller word for "creating new countries." Us whiteys did a shiatload of that in the early part of the 20th century. And ended up with Iraq, among others. "Iraq" has been a country for less than 100 years, and they weren't too happy about it when it became official. They're apparently still not happy. I say we let them have a relatively amicable divorce without any further interference from us. If we want to cozy up to the Kurds in exchange for their oil, cool.


And how exactly that "creating new countries" is going to happen? "Anyone who has enough guns and provide enough terror gets his own country"? Well, here goes Ukraine, then. "Democratic referendum observed by international community"? Good luck trying it in Iraq or anywhere where there are rebels and government army. "Us whiteys think that this particular part of your country deserves independence because we whiteys have decided thusly" isn't exactly an improvement upon old process, now is it?

I'm one hundred percent behind partitioning, across the globe, no less, but what are the rules?

Smelly Pirate Hooker: We already fought a civil war to keep the United States united. Our history isn't relevant here.


Now excuse me! If there would be universal rules for partitioning, your country would be as subject for those rules as any other, war or no war! Every farking country have fought their wars to keep themselves united in the past, including Iraq!
 
2014-07-31 04:17:54 PM  
90% (at least) of this mess belongs to the EuroAmerican 'protectors' who drew the post-WWI borders in the region, deliberately setting up countries full of mutually-hostile ethnosectarian groups.  If the borders had been drawn to MINimze that crap, things would be a whole lot more better.

We did it to ourselves, and again in Afghanistan.
 
2014-07-31 04:30:02 PM  

Grahor: Smelly Pirate Hooker: "Partitioning" is just a smaller word for "creating new countries." Us whiteys did a shiatload of that in the early part of the 20th century. And ended up with Iraq, among others. "Iraq" has been a country for less than 100 years, and they weren't too happy about it when it became official. They're apparently still not happy. I say we let them have a relatively amicable divorce without any further interference from us. If we want to cozy up to the Kurds in exchange for their oil, cool.

And how exactly that "creating new countries" is going to happen? "Anyone who has enough guns and provide enough terror gets his own country"? Well, here goes Ukraine, then. "Democratic referendum observed by international community"? Good luck trying it in Iraq or anywhere where there are rebels and government army. "Us whiteys think that this particular part of your country deserves independence because we whiteys have decided thusly" isn't exactly an improvement upon old process, now is it?

I'm one hundred percent behind partitioning, across the globe, no less, but what are the rules?

Smelly Pirate Hooker: We already fought a civil war to keep the United States united. Our history isn't relevant here.

Now excuse me! If there would be universal rules for partitioning, your country would be as subject for those rules as any other, war or no war! Every farking country have fought their wars to keep themselves united in the past, including Iraq!


Lighten up, Francis. There are no rules. Clearly.
 
2014-07-31 04:31:48 PM  

Smelly Pirate Hooker: Lighten up, Francis. There are no rules. Clearly.


I can't. I'm emotionally involved! My heart bleeds for humanity! :)
 
2014-07-31 05:24:20 PM  

northguineahills: BolloxReader: Gunny Highway: NEPAman: So we will have Kurdistan, the Islamic Caliphate, and a Rump State Formerly Known as Iraq (RSFKI). Brilliant.

Wasnt this actually recommended by some as a possible rebuilding solution?  I remember hearing someone suggest a three state solution.

Turkey vetoed it. Allowing a Kurdish state to come into being is to them an act of war. So long as they are part of NATO we will never support a Kurdish state. Turkey is central to containing Russia, which has always been NATO's reason for existence. As long as the Kremlin stands we will ensure Turkey is not pissed off at us.

Turkey has taken a softer stance to Iraqi Kurdistan now that they're building an oil pipeline through Turkey.from Iraqi Kurdistan (Maliki wasn't too happy about that).  Also, the Iraqi Kurdistan gov't has been really neutral w/ the issue of the Turkish Kurdish rebels, not even retaliating when Turkish war planes bombed Turkish Kurd rebels fleeing into Iraqi Kurdistan.


This. My understanding is that Turkey is genuinely warming up to an Iraqi Kurdistan buffer state, particularly one that's making overtures of friendliness. One wonders if Turkish Kurds wouldn't pick up and move into a prosperous Iraqi Kurdistan - similar to Jews moving to Israel - thereby easing Turkey's Kurdish 'problem' for them without bloodshed. Win/win?
 
2014-07-31 05:33:44 PM  

dionysusaur: 90% (at least) 100% of this mess belongs to the EuroAmerican 'protectors' who drew the post-WWI borders in the region, deliberately setting up countries full of mutually-hostile ethnosectarian groups.  If the borders had been drawn to MINimze that crap, things would be a whole lot more better. Britain and France.

 
2014-07-31 05:57:56 PM  
Partition made sense to me way back before Biden ever mentioned it. The Kurds, after all, got screwed at Versailles in 1919. I sort of get why it is such a taboo in the modern world to even utter the word (Scotland, Quebec, the Basques, etc) , but divide-and-conquer does work, too. The fetishization of the status-quo unity of otherwise arbitrary political units seems to be a post-United Nations era fixation.
 
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