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(Wired)   In 20 years, most new cars won't have steering wheels or pedals, will program their allegiance only to Skynet   (wired.com) divider line 66
    More: Unlikely, bicycle pedal, IEEE, adaptive cruise control, rear-view mirrors, autonomous vehicle  
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892 clicks; posted to Geek » on 21 Jul 2014 at 3:49 PM (21 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2014-07-21 09:21:39 AM  
Then I will be riding my motorcycle everywhere.
 
2014-07-21 10:02:28 AM  
Im sure if you look back at popular mechanics or whatever from 20 years ago, they'd have been saying the same thing.

Basically, I'll believe it when I see it.
 
2014-07-21 10:09:02 AM  
So red barchetta is set in a world after 2034?
 
2014-07-21 10:18:22 AM  
Will a creepy automated animatronic "driver" be mandatory or just an option?

encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com
 
2014-07-21 01:52:37 PM  
How is that unlikely? They already have cars that will stop for you if you're about to rear end someone, cameras all around the car and GPS that (ideally) knows where you are and where you're going. 20 years is a long time. I wouldn't say they won't have steering wheels or pedals though, you would still want to switch to manual at times. That'd be the only unlikely part.
 
2014-07-21 03:29:48 PM  
That means in 5 years the new S-Class will drive itself and have no pedals. Otherwise you wont get it to trickle down to the normal manufacturers in that time.
 
2014-07-21 03:51:24 PM  
I doubt it. They won't be necessary, but they'll still be there for when you want to use them.
 
2014-07-21 03:53:41 PM  
Human-operated cars won't have disappeared, but they will be restricted from driving on select highways that have been converted for high-speed high-density automated traffic operations.
 
2014-07-21 03:56:10 PM  
Good, then I can resume drinking & driving.
 
2014-07-21 03:58:34 PM  

poot_rootbeer: Human-operated cars won't have disappeared, but they will be restricted from driving on select highways that have been converted for high-speed high-density automated traffic operations.


Woe to the person that ventures onto the human-controlled highway, where the only people driving on them will be old people that refuse to adapt to technology.

The automated highways will ultimately be safer, but when something goes wrong, the crashes will be stupendously horrific.
 
2014-07-21 03:59:40 PM  

Tr0mBoNe: That means in 5 years the new S-Class will drive itself and have no pedals. Otherwise you wont get it to trickle down to the normal manufacturers in that time.


Volvo has already promised a self-driving car by 2017. Many of the features needed for it are already available in an option package

http://www.cnet.com/news/a-ride-in-volvos-autonomous-car-how-the-nex t- step-in-driver-safety-requires-replacing-the-driver/
 
2014-07-21 03:59:55 PM  

DrSansabeltNoShiatSlacks: Good, then I can resume drinking & driving.


Oh they're not going to give up that revenue.
 
2014-07-21 04:02:17 PM  
fc09.deviantart.net
 
2014-07-21 04:04:33 PM  
The only major problem with self-driving cars is that not all of them are self-driving.

I always get a kick out of the people that freak about the idea of not actually controlling the car, though. "What if something goes wrong!? What if there's a programming error!?"

What if that happens now? Your engine is already 90% digitally controlled. Hell, in some cars the brakes are already practically the only human input that aren't taken as a suggestion anymore. When you press the pedal you're just sort of telling the car "I'd like to go faster now", you're not really controlling the airflow into the engine, the ECU is doing it to try and maximize efficiency. In a lot of cars even the steering is heavily managed by computers, particularly at higher speeds, that are constantly making adjustments, applying the brakes to certain wheels and generally correcting for all your fark-ups.

Driving, at least in the practical sense, is a purely mathematical problem, and you will never be better than a custom-built calculator at anything that's all math. The machine can calculate the physics faster, it can make more accurate calculations faster, and it can react waaaaaay faster.

Humans are, simply put, the single biggest safety hazard when it comes to driving. Removing them can only make cars safer and more efficient.
 
2014-07-21 04:05:44 PM  
Something occurred to me. What if you set your driverless car for a destination and just got out? Will this be an easy way to summon your car like the Batmobile or unlawful in case something needs to be addressed on the drive?

/probably the latter
 
2014-07-21 04:09:08 PM  

Mentalpatient87: Something occurred to me. What if you set your driverless car for a destination and just got out? Will this be an easy way to summon your car like the Batmobile or unlawful in case something needs to be addressed on the drive?

/probably the latter


Now think about car bombs.
 
2014-07-21 04:11:13 PM  

Mentalpatient87: Something occurred to me. What if you set your driverless car for a destination and just got out? Will this be an easy way to summon your car like the Batmobile or unlawful in case something needs to be addressed on the drive?

/probably the latter


Your 3 year old child is going to steal your car to go get candy
 
2014-07-21 04:11:22 PM  

Lando Lincoln: poot_rootbeer: Human-operated cars won't have disappeared, but they will be restricted from driving on select highways that have been converted for high-speed high-density automated traffic operations.

Woe to the person that ventures onto the human-controlled highway, where the only people driving on them will be old people that refuse to adapt to technology.

The automated highways will ultimately be safer, but when something goes wrong, the crashes will be stupendously horrific.


Nonsense! Someday, automated highways will be more reliable than Comcast!

But seriously, when 35,000 people die every year from human-caused car accidents, we shrug our shoulders and accept it as an inevitable fact of life.

When even one person dies in an automated car, hundreds of millions of people will scream.

Worse, when those idiots at GM (or Toyota, or KIA, or whoever) are discovered to have covered up even an inconsequentual flaw in the system, you will hear calls for the death penalty from every cable news squak box.
 
2014-07-21 04:13:06 PM  
i.kinja-img.com
 
2014-07-21 04:14:33 PM  

Mugato: How is that unlikely? They already have cars that will stop for you if you're about to rear end someone, cameras all around the car and GPS that (ideally) knows where you are and where you're going. 20 years is a long time. I wouldn't say they won't have steering wheels or pedals though, you would still want to switch to manual at times. That'd be the only unlikely part.


Easy. In order for this to be reliable enough you would actually have to have a lot of infrastructure built in. We're too stupid and cheap to keep our bridges from collapsing. What makes you think we'll completely re-engineer our entire highway system to enable this?
 
2014-07-21 04:14:52 PM  

perigee: [fc09.deviantart.net image 692x272]


Not while they are around.

www.bbc.co.uk
 
2014-07-21 04:15:12 PM  

poot_rootbeer: Human-operated cars won't have disappeared, but they will be restricted from driving on select highways that have been converted for high-speed high-density automated traffic operations.


Any technology that relies on converting existing or new infrastructure is doomed to failure.  Good luck trying to get voters to use their tax dollars on roads not all people can travel on.  Besides, freeways are easy for autonomous vehicles, no need to convert them.  It's parking lots, private property and other situations that require human intervention at this point.  Go to any sporting event, county fair or anything that uses non-permanent parking and you'll need human interaction.  And, getting dropped off and picked up by an autonomous vehicle would be a nightmare at a 50,000 seat event.  10,000 cars have to get in AND out
 
2014-07-21 04:16:46 PM  

Mentalpatient87


Something occurred to me. What if you set your driverless car for a destination and just got out? Will this be an easy way to summon your car like the Batmobile or unlawful in case something needs to be addressed on the drive?


I imagine they will make use of the existing sensors in the seats (for seat belt alarms) to determine whether the driver's seat is occupied. To ensure no one simply places a duffel bag in the seat, they'll probably also require some form of action from the driver - press this, operate that - to check for a functioning human.

A car one could summon would be pretty sweet, though.
 
2014-07-21 04:16:54 PM  

crotchgrabber: Now think about car bombs


Oh yeah, that. Kinda scary to think that someone could load up a car full of explosives and send it on its way without even risking themselves. Then again, we're kind of vulnerable most of the time to random attacks. I'm surprised a spree shooter never took advantage of a crowded stoplight.
 
2014-07-21 04:17:50 PM  

Mugato: How is that unlikely? They already have cars that will stop for you if you're about to rear end someone, cameras all around the car and GPS that (ideally) knows where you are and where you're going. 20 years is a long time. I wouldn't say they won't have steering wheels or pedals though, you would still want to switch to manual at times. That'd be the only unlikely part.


So... what's your point again?  The issue isn't whether or not cars will drive themselves.  The article says that cars will not be made with steering wheels and pedals.

Someone else posted that Popular Mechanics/Popular Science has been saying this shiat for at least 20 years.  I'm sure Omni had some articles about it too.
 
2014-07-21 04:21:06 PM  

Smoky Dragon Dish: The issue isn't whether or not cars will drive themselves. The article says that cars will not be made with steering wheels and pedals.


Well, yea, I mean... sure... if you ignore like.. the third sentence in TFA that says "They won't need any of these things because they will be driving themselves."
 
2014-07-21 04:23:23 PM  

Mentalpatient87: crotchgrabber: Now think about car bombs

Oh yeah, that. Kinda scary to think that someone could load up a car full of explosives and send it on its way without even risking themselves. Then again, we're kind of vulnerable most of the time to random attacks. I'm surprised a spree shooter never took advantage of a crowded stoplight.


Once you start thinking along those lines, try to scare yourself as to what else might be done.  Once you start thinking like the goblins you can start seeing ways to make things better.  Or if nothing else you'll start to see where to go when things go bad
 
2014-07-21 04:27:01 PM  

crotchgrabber: Mentalpatient87: Something occurred to me. What if you set your driverless car for a destination and just got out? Will this be an easy way to summon your car like the Batmobile or unlawful in case something needs to be addressed on the drive?

/probably the latter

Now think about car bombs.


Like if I leave a couple of happy gas muffins in the seat before I send the car back home so my wife can use it?

Seriously, what is the point of a self-driving car if it can't drive itself places? When I go to work, I really don't care to stick around for the part where the car navigates its way through the parking lot and finds a parking space.
 
2014-07-21 04:31:05 PM  

skozlaw: Smoky Dragon Dish: The issue isn't whether or not cars will drive themselves. The article says that cars will not be made with steering wheels and pedals.

Well, yea, I mean... sure... if you ignore like.. the third sentence in TFA that says "They won't need any of these things because they will be driving themselves."


I was responding to someone who said that it isn't unlikely to have cars driving themselves, except that he would want the option to change to manual-mode at times.... which is exactly the opposite of what the article was saying.

Which is exactly why it's an absurd notion.  I think most people would be on board with a car that can drive itself.  But, I don't think most people would be on board with a car that is impossible to control manually.
 
2014-07-21 04:31:06 PM  
Also not available: fun.
 
2014-07-21 04:37:02 PM  
I currently have a bet placed with ikanreed about driverless cars.

/waiting game
 
2014-07-21 04:40:04 PM  

Mentalpatient87: crotchgrabber: Now think about car bombs

Oh yeah, that. Kinda scary to think that someone could load up a car full of explosives and send it on its way without even risking themselves. Then again, we're kind of vulnerable most of the time to random attacks. I'm surprised a spree shooter never took advantage of a crowded stoplight.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_shootings_at_CIA_Headquarters
 
2014-07-21 04:40:20 PM  

Watubi: Any technology that relies on converting existing or new infrastructure is doomed to failure.


There are plenty of self-driving car options that don't require specialized infrastructure- they require specialized  data. That's why Google's controlless car is limited to a specific test track, not because they've done anything special to the track itself. There are self-driving cars operating on city streets around the country (CMU's been taking theirs around Pittsburgh, lately).

Smoky Dragon Dish: But, I don't think most people would be on board with a car that is impossible to control manually.


I think you're right about people, but hybrid control is a huge problem- as we've seen in recent aviation accidents, it's the  handover that's the problem. When we try and revert from computer control to pilot control, shiat goes wrong.

The realistic future for self-driving cars is something closer to Lyft/Uber. Why own one, when I can call one to my door when I need one? They have a fraction of the operating cost of a car with a human operator. They're even better for long drives, too, as I don't  need to have a return leg on the trip- think about how U-Haul deals with its trucks. I just need to keep the network capacity at the correct level in each zone.
 
2014-07-21 04:42:37 PM  
As long as they have fleshlights installed, I'll be happy.
 
2014-07-21 04:43:22 PM  
Good farking riddance... 95% of you have no farking clue how to use the steering wheel and pedals properly already.
 
2014-07-21 04:45:08 PM  

assburp: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_shootings_at_CIA_Headquarters


Well shiat, nothing new under the sun, eh?

But really, if you think about all the crazy ass ways that people  could kill you every day, but then remember that most of them  don't,you feel a lot safer.
 
2014-07-21 04:49:38 PM  
If such fully-autonomous cars ever do become a reality, then there would be no need for owners to have a driver's licence, would there?  Which would make these perfect cars for people that shouldn't be driving.  And once those idiots are off the road, the rest of us will do fine!
 
2014-07-21 04:52:25 PM  

GoldDude: If such fully-autonomous cars ever do become a reality, then there would be no need for owners to have a driver's licence, would there?  Which would make these perfect cars for people that shouldn't be driving.  And once those idiots are off the road, the rest of us will do fine!


The problem with stupid people is that they are too stupid to realize they are stupid. The idiots will keep driving. Do you expect Jim Bob to give up his coal roller?
 
2014-07-21 04:53:13 PM  
t3knomanser:

Smoky Dragon Dish: But, I don't think most people would be on board with a car that is impossible to control manually.

I think you're right about people, but hybrid control is a huge problem- as we've seen in recent aviation accidents, it's the  handover that's the problem. When we try and revert from computer control to pilot control, shiat goes wrong.


That's exactly the scenerio I was thinking about. I was also reminded of a joke I heard once, to pharaphrase: To fly a modern airplane, you only need a monkey, a human, and a dog.  The monkey to fly the plane, and the dog to bite the human if he messes with the monkey doing his job.  Airplanes pretty much fly themselves.  But, you still have yokes and pedals in those too.
 
2014-07-21 04:58:40 PM  

Mugato: How is that unlikely? They already have cars that will stop for you if you're about to rear end someone, cameras all around the car and GPS that (ideally) knows where you are and where you're going. 20 years is a long time. I wouldn't say they won't have steering wheels or pedals though, you would still want to switch to manual at times. That'd be the only unlikely part.


The difference between being able to handle 99.99% of situations and 100% is huge.  That said, 20 years is probably about the right time frame.  Technology is already at the 99.99% level.  There are a lot of things that need to be done on a strictly visual reference.  Obeying a cop directing traffic.  Construction detours.  If autonomous cars were driving on roads meant for them, they could be ready today.  Making them work on the existing roads, and in the worst possible weather, with trucks and crappy drivers sharing the road is a different story.

It's a future that I'm looking forward to, but I'll be waiting for the 3rd or 4th generation of autonomous vehicle.
 
2014-07-21 05:03:05 PM  

Mentalpatient87: crotchgrabber: Now think about car bombs

Oh yeah, that. Kinda scary to think that someone could load up a car full of explosives and send it on its way without even risking themselves. Then again, we're kind of vulnerable most of the time to random attacks. I'm surprised a spree shooter never took advantage of a crowded stoplight.


Would they just park the car and get out?

Or throw the bomb in the back of a passing pickup truck?

Or rent a Ryder Truck?
 
2014-07-21 05:03:37 PM  

Mentalpatient87: crotchgrabber: Now think about car bombs

Oh yeah, that. Kinda scary to think that someone could load up a car full of explosives and send it on its way without even risking themselves. Then again, we're kind of vulnerable most of the time to random attacks. I'm surprised a spree shooter never took advantage of a crowded stoplight.


If I've learned anything from watching Mythbusters, it's that sourcing the explosives is probably more work than converting a car to drive by remote control.  Especially if you don't care much about safety.  The reason we see so few domestic bombings mostly has to do with just how few people really want to cause mass death.
 
2014-07-21 05:09:28 PM  

mcreadyblue: Would they just park the car and get out?

Or throw the bomb in the back of a passing pickup truck?

Or rent a Ryder Truck?


I don't know. I'd leave that kind of planning to the nutball actually interested in doing it...
 
2014-07-21 05:18:55 PM  
Good, I live in FL and the amount of 70+ year old drivelers scares the shait out of me.
 
2014-07-21 05:20:36 PM  
I'm curious about what will happen to classic cars when self-driving cars are the norm.  There are far too many classic car enthusiasts to just tell them all that they're boned and can't use their cars on the road anymore.  Are they going to require some sort of retrofit kit that will require relinquishing control?  I'll fight any loss of control of my classic to the end as will many others.

I have no doubt that all cars being self-driving would be far safer once the bugs are worked out.  I also know that it would be boring as hell.  Driving can be a lot of fun.
 
2014-07-21 05:24:09 PM  

skozlaw: The only major problem with self-driving cars is that not all of them are self-driving.

I always get a kick out of the people that freak about the idea of not actually controlling the car, though. "What if something goes wrong!? What if there's a programming error!?"

What if that happens now? Your engine is already 90% digitally controlled. Hell, in some cars the brakes are already practically the only human input that aren't taken as a suggestion anymore. When you press the pedal you're just sort of telling the car "I'd like to go faster now", you're not really controlling the airflow into the engine, the ECU is doing it to try and maximize efficiency. In a lot of cars even the steering is heavily managed by computers, particularly at higher speeds, that are constantly making adjustments, applying the brakes to certain wheels and generally correcting for all your fark-ups.

Driving, at least in the practical sense, is a purely mathematical problem, and you will never be better than a custom-built calculator at anything that's all math. The machine can calculate the physics faster, it can make more accurate calculations faster, and it can react waaaaaay faster.

Humans are, simply put, the single biggest safety hazard when it comes to driving. Removing them can only make cars safer and more efficient.



Yeah... But Fast & Furious movies will suck more!
 
2014-07-21 05:25:43 PM  

NewWorldDan: There are a lot of things that need to be done on a strictly visual reference.  Obeying a cop directing traffic.  Construction detours.


The difficult thing about cops directing traffic is that it's awfully clear that there are no standards for how to direct traffic. In the movies, it's always one guy making eye contact with you and performing some clear, unambiguous hand signals. In reality, it's usually two or three guys standing around vaguely waving their hands in contradictory directions.

And don't get me started on bus drivers. If you drive a bus, apparently hazard lights mean "I'm about to pull out into traffic", right turn signals mean "I'm about to pull out into traffic", no signal means "I'm about to pull out into traffic", and a left turn signal means "I'm going to sit here indefinitely until you give up and try to pass me, then I'm going to pull out into traffic."  How hard would it be to have one universal standard for how a bus signals its intentions?  Heck, how hard would it be for one bus driver to do something consistently at two subsequent stops?

Then there are "no parking" signs. I'm convinced those are just put up at random by the underwear gnomes as a joke. Sometimes they're fine and make sense. Sometimes it's clear there are a half-dozen lazy civil engineers in charge of that section of road, and they can't be bothered to actually look at the road or talk to each other, so they've all just made up a couple of stupid signs and told a disgruntled employee to put them up.
 
2014-07-21 05:36:32 PM  

crotchgrabber: Now think about car bombs.


You missed the thread last week.


NewWorldDan: Making them work on the existing roads, and in the worst possible weather, with trucks and crappy drivers sharing the road is a different story.


It has been suggested that freight trucks will probably be the first vehicles to include autopilot driving en-mass.  Lots of long distance driving on expressways and corporate desire to run trucks 24/7.  Which makes me believe that expressways will probably be the first class of roadways to include sensors or other aids specifically designed for autopilot systems.
 
2014-07-21 05:45:15 PM  
And when that happens, good luck getting a ride to the revolution. You think switches on cell phones are bad, they'll program the cars to drive right to the FEMA camps.
 
2014-07-21 05:58:30 PM  
As long as it allows making out without parking, I am all for it.
 
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